02/13/09 UPDATE: The Lindy's and Athlon 2009 Baseball Annuals are now on the stands. They aren't strictly fantasy mags but they both usually have interesting features on players and aspects of the game that fantasy owners can use. The Lindy's Annual is a mind blowing $9.50. The Athlon Annual is a typical $7.99. UPDATE: The Rotoman Fantasy Baseball Guide is now available in bookstores. It has a cover price of $7.99.
Information on the 2009 fantasy baseball magazines has been very scarce. I thought I could put together a list of the expected magazines and their release dates but it has been much more difficult than expected. I'm going to share my work with you and hopefully you'll reciprocate by sharing the information you get with me. I'll keep updating this post with information as I get it.
I first received the Diamond Draft software a few months ago. RotoExperts.com had just purchased the rights to Diamond Draft and logically wanted their writers to become familiar with the new product. I have to say that my first impression was that it was lacking graphically. There are not many fancy visual effects. But over the course of the last three months I have used it for three different leagues -- a 20-team mixed 5x5 draft, an AL-only 5x5 auction, and an NL-only 5x5 auction. Diamond Draft has been a cinch to use and made the work of the draft and auctions a lot simpler.
Diamond Draft has proven to be an immensely valuable pre-draft tool. By entering the parameters of your league and any keepers there may be you eliminate the need to calculate inflation and cross names off of your draft list. Diamond Draft also provides you with three years of stats for every player and an extensive list of minor leaguers for those leagues that have farm systems. Every player has a projection (updated weekly) that covers includes every statistic from singles, doubles, and triples to Total Bases, OPS, and sacrifice flies. If you don't like a projection just change it. You can also highlight players in various colors to assist with your draft strategy. So, if you were using the LIMA Plan you could highlight LIMA pitchers in magenta (or whichever color you like), sleepers in blue, injury risks in red and so forth. Check out this video on using the edit screen. There is a video for almost every function available.
I have primarily used pen and paper for the 20-something years I have been involved in fantasy sports. I think it is vital to track every team's roster and budget as well as the in-draft inflation. Doing this by hand has gotten much easier over the years but it is a bitch to do. Diamond Draft handles all of this which gives you more time to look your rivals in the eye (an underrated necessity of Advanced Fantasy Baseball).
I have used a few different brands in the past and while I have nothing bad to say about them I have always gone back to my pen and paper method. One of the main reasons is I hate spending $60, $75, and even $100 dollars on software only to need to spend close to the same amount again the following season. Diamond Draft offers most of the functionality of those packages for just $34.95.
Partial List of Diamond Draft Features
Drag and Drop Functionality
League Overview Screen
Position Overview Screen
Team View Screen
Points Total Screen
Depth Chart Screens
Position Eligibility Screen
View/Edit Screens
Assign Players to a team from anywhere in the program
Warning Signs (overbid, position eligibility, all players drafted)
That is just a sampling of the functions of Diamond Draft. There are functions within the functions, a complete list would be a mile long. Believe me when I tell you this is an addictive toy that will not only help you prepare and dominate your draft but provide you with a hundred ways to waste time at work and at home! If I didn't think it was worth it I would not be posting this. I will personally assist you with any problems you may have. I am always just an e-mail or post comment away.
Few aspects of fantasy baseball have created as much controversy and discussion as anti-dumping rules. Fantasy team owners take advantage of their also-ran status to trade away their expensive studs and expiring contracts for under priced veterans, rookies, and minor leaguers. The owner dumping his present season is hoping to gain an advantage in the next one. The owner benefiting this season is willing to trade cheap keepers to improve his chances of a championship. Message boards from one end of the internet to the other have hosted the debate. Is it more important to protect the integrity of the draft and good team management or to protect the ability to trade freely as in real baseball? Should poorly managed teams benefit from trades with aggressive contenders at the expense of other contenders? Are dump deals a form of collusion or is rebuilding your fantasy franchise via dumping a right worth protecting? Regardless of your answers, most leagues have instituted rules to prevent dump deals or at least limit them.
FLAWED SOLUTIONS
The most commonly adopted rules have been an In-Season Salary Cap and a system for vetoing unpopular deals. These rules, however well intentioned, are flawed. A salary cap prevents an owner from moving a large amount of salary for a smaller amount. This might put a severe drag on dump deals but it also prevents many perfectly fair deals. Why should an owner with the expiring contracts of Chad Billingsley $10 and Jose Reyes $17 be prevented from trading for $40 Carlos Lee and $45 Matt Holliday? Even worse than preventing owners from making fair deals is allowing other owners or even just the league’s commissioner to decide if the trade should be allowed or not. Compare it to the Boston Red Sox given the power to decide if the New York Yankees can complete a deal with the Houston Astros. A trade that seems unfair can often greatly reward the owner making the questionable deal.
Fantasy leagues cannot afford to ignore the owners that despise dumping. If a majority of owners would like to prevent such trades, leagues must take action or their futures become endangered. A Google search will reveal thousands of owners who left their leagues because their rivals took a different stance on dumping. However, it is just as important that a league consider their solutions carefully. An overly aggressive solution can make the league less fun for those owners that like to make frequent trades. The best solutions will encourage all owners to finish as high in the standings as possible. If league members at some point discover that finishing in a money position is impossible, then that owner should also see the value in finishing seventh or even eighth rather than eleventh or twelfth.
BETTER SOLUTIONS
CHANGE THE MINOR LEAGUE DRAFT ORDER
Fortunately, good solutions exist. A very simple solution that works well in conjunction with other solutions is changing the order of minor league and reserve picks. Rather than simply using the reverse of the standings as your draft order, reward the owner that finishes in the highest non-money position with the first pick in your supplemental drafts. Dole out the remaining picks in a similar fashion, with the second pick going to the next highest placed team and so on. The teams in the money would receive picks in reverse of the standings after the non-money teams. The teams finishing out of the money still receive the best minor league/reserve picks, but in a twelve-team league, that has prizes for the first six spots, the seventh place team receives a reward for its superior effort.
EARLIER TRADE DEADLINES
Every league should have a trade deadline in place but often it is late in August. A great change to make moves the deadline for uninhibited trading to a week after the Major League Baseball trade deadline in July. During the month of August, owners can trade with teams within two spots of them in the standings. The late July deadline limits dumping by taking place before most teams’ elimination from contention. The limited trading in August allows teams to make the small adjustments that injuries and MLB transactions make necessary without allowing the drastic trades between the second place team and the last placed team.
THREE-YEAR CHAMPIONSHIP PRIZE
By far the best solution to dumping is instituting a Three-Year Championship. This rule’s intention is to reward the owners that are continually high in the standings over a three-year period. Leagues that charge dues can set aside a small portion each season as a prize. How much to set aside would depend on how much would motivate teams to battle for every homerun or stolen base. At the end of three seasons, simply combine the total stats from each season and rank the teams accordingly. Reward at least the top three teams with a prize and you will have teams that would have dumped previously battling to finish as high as possible every season. This increased competition is the very best drag on dumping.
Implementing these three very simple rules will not only drastically lessen the number of dump trades but also create a more competitive atmosphere around your league without ruining the fun of those owners that like to trade. With owners battling for more prizes, improved draft picks, and more of the pot, participation increases and leagues become tougher, which is more fun for everyone involved.
This is the first part of a series of articles that will go position by position and league by league into the depth charts of every team.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles did not sign Gregg Zaun to become their starting catcher. They signed him to serve as a mentor and potential insurance policy for top catching prospect Matt Wieters. The Orioles are publicizing Zaun as the starter because the Orioles want Wieters to grab the job rather than have it handed to him. If Wieters fails to win the job in Spring Training he will go down to the minors but expect it to be a brief stay unless he really struggles. Zaun batted .237/.340/.359 with 6 homers and 30 RBIs in 86 games with Toronto last season. In a poetic baseball twist, Zaun returns to the organization that raised him to finish his career.
The Future: Matt Wieters is the future and the future is now for the Orioles at catcher. Although he is often compared to Mike Piazza with the bat, he has a far superior glove and arm. If all goes as planned (never a guarantee, even with someone this good) Wieters will be the Orioles catcher for at least the next six or seven years.
Gregg Zaun
Matt Wieters
Guillermo Quiroz
Robby Hammock
Chad Moeller
Guillermo Rodriguez
Adam Donachie
Jose A. Reyes
Boston Red Sox
There is still a strong possibility that Jason Varitek (the Red Sox Captain) returns for another season. Boston would love to acquire a young catcher like Jarrod Saltalamaccia (Rangers) or Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks) but so far, they have not been willing to meet the asking price of their respective teams. Until further notice, Josh Bard is the starting catcher. Bard has a career .318 wOBA, which is not the end of the world for a catcher. Bard draws a few walks and has a strong contact rate. His BABIP was just .230 in 2008 which when compared to his career mark of .296 indicates that his .202 batting average was mostly bad luck. He should bat somewhere around his career slash of .265/.333/.395 but batting in the Red Sox lineup should leave him with more run production opportunities than a line like that would usually warrant.
The Future: The player that will eventually fill the role of Red Sox catcher of the future probably is not in the organization yet. George Kottaras will serve as the Red Sox reserve catcher until the Red Sox find someone to knock Bard down a notch. Kottaras is a fair offensive catcher. He draws walks and has a little pop but strikes out too often.MarkWagner has shown the potential to be the next Red Sox catcher. He appeared to be a future fantasy stud by hitting for both power and batting average until he hit a wall at Double-A in 2008, the Red Sox are hoping it was just bad luck as a result of his .256 BABIP.
Josh Bard
George Kottaras
Mark Wagner
Chicago White Sox
A.J. Pierzynski does not get much respect as a fantasy option. He will receive around 500 at-bats, hit for a decent batting average in the .280-.290 range. You can expect 15-20 homeruns and a fair number of runs and RBI. Maybe the fact that he has few friends in real baseball has trickled into fantasy owner’s mind. He is on the perfect team with a manager like Ozzie Guillen, who keeps most of the negative attention on himself. Those that know this already are okay with drafting Pierzynski late or buying him cheap.
The Future: Ozzie Guillen almost forced general manager Kenny Williams to trade pitcher Javier Vazquez by questioning the right-hander’s heart. A key part of the return in the trade with the Atlanta Braves was Arizona Fall League standout, Tyler Flowers. In the minors Flowers has hit for both average and power but in the 2008 Arizona Fall League his power exploded even further with 12 homeruns in 75 at-bats. A.J. Pierzynski is signed very reasonably through the 2010 season and that perfectly coincides with Flowers’ development schedule were he to spend most of a season in Double-A and most of another season in Triple-A.
A.J. Pierzynski
Tyler Flowers
Corky Miller
Chris Stewart
Donny Lucy
Cleveland Indians
Victor Martinez could be playing for his next contract this season. The slugging catcher signed through the 2009 season, was a non-factor due to injuries in 2008. The Indians hold a 2010 option for $7 million that Martinez will have to earn. When right, Martinez is a fantasy stud at the catcher position. He bats for average and power. However, catcher is a position where the Tribe has options. Kelly Shoppach filled in admirably for Martinez in 2008 by blasting 21 homers in 352 at-bats. Shoppach figures to receive between 350-400 at-bats by frequently pushing Martinez to first base and first baseman Ryan Garko to the bench or the outfield.
The Future: His acquisition from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for third baseman Casey Blake was a surprise. However, Carlos Santana has become the catcher of the future. Santana looks a lot like Victor Martinez with the bat, hitting for both average and power. He still has to prove himself at the higher levels of the minors but his development timeline has him in the majors just as Martinez’s contract runs out after the 2010 season.
Victor Martinez
Kelly Shoppach
Carlos Santana
Damaso Espino
Chris Gimenez
Wyatt Toregas
Detroit Tigers
The trade for Gerald Laird cleared up the immediate future at catcher for the Tigers. Laird possesses great potential. However, he has also been very inconsistent with the bat. Laird’s BABIP has been all over the place --.344, .288, .250, .357, .278, and .324. He was trending upward in fly ball percentage until it took a sudden drop in 2008. It is by no means certain that hitting flyballs would help much given his very low career HR/FB rate of just six percent. The offensive peak for catchers is different from most position players and Laird is entering that peak but predicting what the real Laird is capable of doing is next to impossible. Matt Treanor, formerly of the Florida Marlins, becomes the new back-up catcher. Treanor has no offensive potential and thus zero fantasy value. If Brandon Inge makes more than a token appearance as a catcher, everything will have gone wrong for the Tigers.
The Future: Defensively, Dusty Ryan was ready to join the Detroit Tigers the day he was drafted. Unfortunately, the Merced College product needed a few years to get his bat major league ready. However, if we can judge by his 2008 season he’ll be there soon. In 2008, he had a .363 wOBA at Double-A in 296 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A, where he posted a .397 wOBA in 73 at-bats. He capped his best offensive season by excelling in a Major League cup of coffee where he achieved an impressive .380 wOBA albeit in just 44 at-bats. He will have a shot in Spring Training but unless Laird truly struggles, Ryan will return to the minors for most of 2009. Further off, Alex Avila has a bat a fantasy owner can appreciate but could be changing positions before he gets a chance to help.
Gerald Laird
Matt Treanor
Dusty Ryan
Brandon Inge
Dane Sardinha
Alex Avila
Jeff Kunkel
Max Pierre
Alex Avila
Kansas City Royals
This is by far the worst catching tandem in the American League. Miguel Olivo has a little pop but is such a disaster at the plate that it is rare anyone notices. How horrible must Olivo be? When a .255 batting average is the second highest mark of his career? A good batting average is hard to come by with a 66.8 contact percentage. John Buck has failed to be a better option. Buck has better power than Olivo, and draws more walks (not that many more) and has a slightly better contact rate of 75.2 percent. Despite better skills he has failed to fight off Olivo for the starting job. Both will get their share of at-bats but neither is worth rostering.
The Future: Any catcher in the Royals system that has any chance at a major league career is either an older veteran like Vance Wilson or a failed prospect like Brayan Pena or J.R. House. Vance Wilson never could hit and after Tommy John surgery, his throwing has to be a huge question mark too. Pena at least makes excellent contact and has a good glove. That gives him the best chance of providing quality for the Royals at catcher.
Miguel Olivo
John Buck
Brayan Pena
J.R. House
Matt Tupman
Vance Wilson
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Jeff Mathis is probably a better defensive option than Mike Napoli is. However, Napoli is so much the better offensive option that it is difficult to imagine Mathis matching even the 94 games he played in 2008. According to fangraghs.com measurements, Napoli was not only the more valuable catcher but also the most valuable player on the Angels. Napoli had a wOBA of .399 (in 227 at-bats). Mathis posted a pathetic .260 wOBA in 2008 and has just a .261 wOBA for his career. ‘Nuff said.
The Future: Napoli is just 27 years old and under the Angels control for another four seasons. Napoli is the present for the Angels and likely the future. Ryan Budde is an okay option if an emergency pops up for the Angels but you do not want him on your fantasy team. Bobby Wilson could also make things interesting in the next year or two. He has not had a wOBA below .342 in the minors and little to prove at Triple-A. Hank Conger has potential but needs to work on his plate discipline and staying healthy.
Mike Napoli
Jeff Mathis
Ryan Budde
Bobby Wilson
Hank Conger
Minnesota Twins
Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the Major Leagues. As long as his knees stay healthy and the Twins cough up the bucks, he should be behind the plate in Minnesota for another decade. Mauer is a fantastic hitter who annually puts up .300-plus batting averages and steals a few bases. He could still develop some power but at this point, it does not matter anymore. He is the best in the business just as he is. Mike Redmond is not in Mauer’s class as a hitter but he does a fair job hitting for average. In AL-only leagues, Redmond is a better option than players like John Buck.
The Future: When you start at Joe Mauer, the Twins system seems barren of anyone who could even tie his shoes in the majors. Wilson Ramos is beginning to show some nice power in the minors. He still needs to develop a little plate discipline but he has better offensive potential than most catchers do.
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Drew Butera
Wilson Ramos
Jeff Christy
Danny Lehmann
New York Yankees
If the Yankees could count on Jorge Posada being healthy, they would not need such a long list of secondary options. Posada provides great power and a decent to good batting average…when healthy. Because he had major shoulder surgery last season there are some who suggest the Yankees sign a more serious second catcher like Ivan Rodriguez or even Jason Varitek. But the Yankees are betting that Posada will be back to full strength at some point this season if not to start the season. Most reports suggest that he will not be ready when Spring Training begins, but should be available for the season opener. JoseMolina will receive the bulk of the at-bats when Posada is unavailable. Molina has almost zero fantasy value as a hitter. It would be zero were he not in the loaded Yankee lineup. Kevin Cash, because of his major league experience, has the best chance of backing up Molina if Posada is placed on the disabled list. Cash is just as worthless with a bat in his hand as Molina.
The Future: In very limited at-bats, Francisco Cervelli has shown skills at the plate (.386 in 73 Double-A at-bats. He draws walks and hits for a decent batting average. He does not have much power but any hitting skills from a catcher are worth noting. He does not appear to be suffering any ill effects from the Spring Training accident that broke his wrist. I find it interesting that the Yankees called on Cervelli rather than Jesus Montero (.388 wOBA in 2008) when they needed a catcher considering Montero’s greater experience. Cervelli is probably superior behind the plate, but still needs to complete an entire season. The Yankees’ Austin Romine may be the best overall catcher of the bunch. In his first (almost) full season, Romine finished with a .355 wOBA in 407 at-bats. He displayed excellent contact skills and homerun power.
Jorge Posada
Jose Molina
Kevin Cash
Francisco Cervelli
Jesus Montero
Austin Romine
Kyle Anson
P.J. Pilittere
Oakland Athletics
Kurt Suzuki has very little power but rarely strikeouts and knows how to draw the occasional walk. There have been rumors that Suzuki has the speed to steal bases. The Oakland Athletics typically neglect to utilize base-stealing skills. Suzuki will provide you with a decent batting average, a few homeruns, and a couple of stolen bases. He is no Russell Martin but he is better than many of the alternatives. Rob Bowen is the back-up catcher. Bowen takes walks but strikes out at an absurd pace that renders him nearly useless for fantasy purposes.
The Future: Kurt Suzuki is only 25-years old and not yet arbitration eligible. However, the Athletics have a habit of dumping players before they become expensive provided they have a capable (and cheap) replacement. The A’s signed Joel Galarraga out of the Mexican Summer League. He’s a giant question mark at this point. John Donaldson projects to be a fantasy worthy catcher but his defensive skills (or lack thereof) may force him to another position. Petey Paramore (you have to love the name) draws walks but seems to lack any other skills with the bat. He does have the glove to remain at catcher however.
Kurt Suzuki
Rob Bowen
Joel Galarraga
John Donaldson
Petey Paramore
Seattle Mariners
Had Jack Zduriencik been the general manager a year ago, chances are the Mariners would never have signed Kenji Johjima to a new three-year contract. However, he was not and the contract was signed thereby blocking the less expensive and better hitting option, Jeff Clement. This season the pair will split the catching duties almost equally with Clement also collecting at-bats as the designated hitter and occasional first baseman. Johjima is a better hitter than he appeared to be last season. He has the ability to hit for average and power and rarely strikes out. Unfortunately, he will be losing at-bats this season to Clement, which will dramatically reduce his usefulness to fantasy owners. Jeff Clement has excellent contact skills, draws walks, and hits for power. He is exactly the type of fantasy option the catcher position needs.
The Future: Somehow or another, the Mariners will find a way to install Jeff Clement as the full-time catcher. The Boston Red Sox would be an excellent option for them considering Boston’s bountiful farm system and need for a major league catcher.
UPDATE: I thought Jeff Clement was a lock but in a recent public statement new minor league director by Pedro Griffol:
“Adam Moore will probably start the season in Tacoma, but he’s going to be a catcher who can lead a staff and bat in the heart of the order,” Griffol said. “He’s going to be an impact player.”
Moore, caught in the traffic jam with catchers Kenji Johjima, Jeff Clement, Rob Johnson and Jamie Burke, batted .319 with 14 home runs and 71 RBI in 119 Double-A games in 2008.“He’s got an outside shot to come up this year,” Zduriencik said of Moore, “but next year, he’s coming. He’s a good young player with a lot of promise.”
Jeff Clement
Kenji Johjima
Rob Johnson
Jamie Burke
Adam Moore
Luis Oliveros
Tampa Bay Rays
Dioner Navarro is an excellent contact hitter and knows how to draw a walk when necessary. He has no power worth mentioning. Shawn Riggans is presently the back-up catcher but will have to fight to keep that role in Spring Training. Riggans is a lousy hitter with a little power. Navarro is a fine catcher and could probably be signed rather inexpensively through his arbitration years. However, the Rays like their future options.
The Future:John Jaso is going to be a fantasy worthy catcher. He has plate discipline, draws walks, makes excellent contact, and has good and still improving power. He isn’t quite ready but will be allowed to battle Shawn Riggans for the reserve role during Spring Training. The most likely scenario has Jaso spending another year in the minors before emerging during the 2010 season.
Dioner Navarro
John Jaso
Shawn Riggans
Michel Hernandez
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have a better collection of catchers than any other team even after trading Gerald Laird. All three catchers will do battle in Spring Training for the starting catcher’s role. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was the key piece in the Mark Teixeira trade. Salty is the most likely starter this season after an impressive winter ball performance. He should hit for both a decent average and power. He should develop into an excellent fantasy option but still needs to improve his plate discipline. Taylor Teagarden is probably the best defensive option of the three. Teagarden has excellent power but the rest of his hitting skills are still developing. Max Ramirez has the worst glove of the three but is a monster with a bat in his hands. He is easily the best bat of the bunch but may be moved to another position to fit into the Ranger lineup.
The Future: Everyone seems to be waiting for the Rangers to make a decision about their catching. The Rangers are in no rush to decide. For now, the most likely scenario is for Saltalamacchia to start in the majors with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez both returning to the minors. But if any or all of the three prove ready for the majors, the Rangers will not hesitate to find a way to fit them all into the major league lineup.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Taylor Teagarden
Max Ramirez
Toronto Blue Jays
Rod Barajas will start behind the plate for the Blue Jays. Barajas possesses power but very little plate discipline. The Blue Jays brought in veteran Michael Barrett to compete for a job. Barrett was once a top fantasy catcher but injuries and ineffectiveness have ruined the last few seasons for him. Barrett is apparently healthy now and if he has retained the skills he showed a few years ago he is easily the best fantasy option on the team and worth a small gamble. Curtis Thigpen has no chance of starting for the Blue Jays. However, he will compete for the reserve role. Thigpen has none of the hitting skills that might make him fantasy worthy.
The Future:J.P. Arencibia is the catcher of the future. He has steadily improved his defense and displayed power with the bat. Arencibia’s lack of plate discipline is his greatest weakness. But by hitting 27 homeruns between two levels he has placed himself firmly into the fantasy baseball landscape. Brian Jeroloman could work himself into the picture as well. He draws walks like a veteran but lacks power, which limits his upside.
Emily Stecher needs our help one more time. Help her out and you could win a $50 Visa Gift card.
Hi Everyone,
Thank you so much for participating in my first survey. The results raised more questions than I could have imagined. I have condensed those questions into a few very important ones and I am hoping that you all can take a few minutes to fill out this follow up survey.
The survey will take approximately 5-10 minutes to complete. Please follow the instructions and answer all of the questions to the best of your ability. Do not consult any outside sources. All responses will remain completely anonymous and will only be used for the purposes of this study. Please finish the whole survey in one sitting as you will not be allowed to re-enter the survey to update or change your responses.
All participants will be eligible to win a additional $50 Visa Gift Card upon completion of the survey. On January 20th I will be drawing two names of people who have completed both surveys. At the end of this survey, please be sure to leave your e-mail address. Your e-mail address will not be linked to your responses to ensure anonymity.
I want to thank Jason Sarney of Fantasy Phenoms for inviting me to participate in the second of their series of mock drafts. The league details are the standard 12-team mixed 5x5, rotisserie format. The draft was a serpentine 23-round session, with two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a shortstop, a third baseman, a middle infielder, a corner infielder, a utility player, five outfielders, and a staff of nine pitchers.
I have been using a slightly modified form of the projections that come with the Diamond Draft Fantasy Baseball Software, but I did not have time to load them into the Mock Draft Central system before the draft. Therefore, I had to do my best with the rankings they provided. You can be the judge.
I enter every re-draft league (and thus all mock drafts) with the same simple strategy. I try to draft players with upside potential in every round especially pitchers. I tend to avoid players I see as in decline unless they come at a major discount. I usually speculate on saves in the end game unless someone good falls to me. In addition, I do not pay much attention to position scarcity except at the catcher position. This strategy has worked for me repeatedly, but this was some other plan.
R1 P2Ramirez, HanleySSFLA
The first round held no real surprises. I am a just a bit impressed that Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) has maintained his first round status. His 12.53 ADP according to Mock Draft Central is a sign that no one will be surprised to see Holliday provide a typical performance as an Oakland Athletic. I have taken Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) first overall in more than one mock draft already. I think his combination of 30 homerun/50 stolen base potential is very tough to ignore, especially when it comes from a shortstop.
R2 P11 Phillips, Brandon2BCIN
I love that Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) was the first pitcher drafted. I think he deserves the position and this comes from someone who loves Johan Santana (LHP, NYN) as much as ever. However, Lincecum’s ADP has him going almost a round later than Santana, so this is a little early. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) has 30/30 potential but 25/25 is a much better bet. Somehow, despite ignoring position scarcity, I have already built a very strong middle infield.
R3 P2Fielder, Prince1BMIL
In retrospect, I should have taken Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) in this spot. I like Prince Fielder (1B, MIL) and I think he will have another productive season bit I have been targeting Matt Kemp because I see him having first round value. I should have known he would not be around for my next pick. Choosing Prince also ensured that I would not have an elite outfielder. Carl Crawford (OF, TAM) would have been another good choice. He lost some status due to his injury-plagued season but I expect him to be back on top of his game this season. With first base being deep, I could have waited a while and still drafted a quality corner.
R4 P11 Victorino, Shane OFPHI
I was a little shocked to see Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, BOS) go this soon. His present ADP has him going in the early sixth round. With the second half slump Ellsbury experienced I did not expect to see anyone in a rush to draft him. Shane Victorino (OF, PHI) was the best outfielder on the board. I had to select him if I wanted to have a half-decent outfield I had to start filling it. Victorino is just a notch below elite level but provides power and steals in bunches.
R5 P2Hart, Corey OFMIL
Had I been on my game I probably would have targeted one of the elite catchers at this point. This round sees the first closer come off the board when Chris Lynch selects Jon Papelbon (RHP, BOS).
R6 P11 Ordonez, Magglio OFDET
A small closer run ensues but fortunately, I am not so out of sorts as to follow suit. I am attempting to make up for not having an elite outfielder by drafting a strong and deep one. Magglio Ordonez (OF, DET) is an old favorite. He does not have his former speed and his power is fading but he still hits for a strong average and enough power to stay productive.
R7 P2Uggla, Dan2BFLA
At this point I decide that since the outfielders I like are going fast that I’m going to select the best middle infielders I can. Now that I am thinking more clearly I wish I had taken Geovany Soto (C, CHC). Nevertheless, the team I have this point is still a strong one. DanUggla (2B, MIA) is good for 30 homeruns.
R8 P11 Hardy, J.J.SSMIL
Some experts seem to have a problem with J.J. Hardy’s (SS, MIL) streakiness. This might matter a little in head-to-head leagues, but in reality, this is a silly argument against him in most leagues. Fantasy Baseball is a marathon you do not judge a player by a few cold streaks or even a few hot ones. Darryl Strawberry (OF, Retired) was streaky, so was Reggie Jackson (OF, also retired). Without his famous end of the season hot streak in 2008, we would all have Manny Ramirez (OF, Free Agent) outside of our top 25 outfielders. Hardy’s 118.7 ADP which places him well behind one year wonders like Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) and Stephen Drew (SS, ARI) and declining veterans like Miguel Tejada (SS, HOU) and Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) is a travesty of fantasy baseball justice (I just made it up).
R9 P2Rivera, Mariano RPNYY
Even non-closer people have limits. I could not allow the best closer of all time to remain on the market for another round. Mariano Rivera (RHP, NYY) still displays every skill you want to see in a closer candidate. He is as safe a closer pick as can be made. I always find it easier to take closers in expert leagues and other tough leagues because everyone waits on closers and drafting the best ones in the middle rounds of the draft is tolerable to me. This team does not resemble my typical ones at all.
R10 P11 Lester, JonSPBOS
I expect Jon Lester (LHP, BOS) to move into the top tier of starters this season. He has the magic combination of a good strikeout rate, groundball rate, and decent control that lies in the heart of every dominate starter. I am shocked by the selection of Carlos Marmol (RHP, CHC) ahead of so many established closers. Marmol will compete with Kevin Gregg (RHP, CHC) and Jeff Samardzija (RHP, CHC) for the role. Gregg of course was the Florida closer for the last two years and was acquired by trade earlier in the offseason. Samardzija is just the young fireballer that Lou Piniella fell in love with last season. Marmol is not even close to a lock so selecting him at this point takes a giant leap of faith.
R11 P2 Chamberlain, Joba RP NYY
If Joba Chamberlain (RHP, NYY) can stay healthy (and in the Yankees rotation), he has a chance to be as valuable as any pitcher in baseball. I really like the odds that he can do it. If I can draft Lester and Chamberlain in my real leagues this spring, I will be a very happy man. However, I will not hold my breath expecting that to happen.
R12 P11 Doumit, Ryan CPIT
In a shallow league like this, you need to get quality at the catcher position. Ryan Doumit fits the bill. I like the Adam Jones (OF, BAL) pick. I expect him to take a real step up this season. The closers are coming off the board, which does not bother me at all.
R13 P2 Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA
The last time Adrian Beltre (3B, SEA) was in a walk year, he blasted 40 homeruns. Even if he does not step up quite like that again, I still love having Beltre in a walk year. Matt Wieters (C, BAL), the catching prospect that everybody wants went in this round. Is it just a coincidence that David Price (RHP,TAM), the pitching prospect that everyone wants, also went in this round? Kevin Slowey (RHP, MIN) went with the third pick of the round and could be a very nice bargain.
R14 P11 Byrnes, EricOFARI
I did not want to be left with the dregs of the outfield so I grabbed Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) here. If healthy, I expect him to bounce back with 15-20 homeruns and 25-30 stolen bases, which is a nice value for this round.
R15 P2 Johnson, JoshSPFLA
Josh Johnson (RHP, FLA) had a very strong second half after returning from Tommy John Elbow Surgery. He should continue to grow stronger this season.
R16 P11 Lowe, DerekSPATL
The Atlanta Braves were willing to overpay because Derek Lowe (RHP, ATL) is as steady and durable starter as there is in the majors. He has never been on the disabled list. How many veteran starting pitchers in the majors can make that claim?
R17 P2 Scherzer, MaxRPARI
I drafted another great arm with upside this round. Max Scherzer (RHP, ARI) has an incredible ability to incur strikeouts. He should excel as either a starter or a closer. I tend to believe he will stick in the rotation but you never can tell.
R18 P11Saltalamaccia, J CTEX
This is probably the riskiest pick I made. Jarrod Saltalamaccia (C, TEX) does not have a guaranteed starting job. I expect that he will and based on his winter league performance I think the Rangers will have a hard time keeping him out of the lineup now that Gerald Laird (C, DET) has been traded to the Detroit Tigers.
R19 P2 Duchscherer, JSPOAK
When healthy, Justin Duchscherer (RHP, OAK) is one of the most effective pitchers in baseball. For most of the 2008 season Duchscherer was one of the American League leaders in ERA. He ended last season badly due to a hip ailment but he expects to be ready to start on Opening Day.
R20 P11 Giambi, Jason1BOAK
No, Jason Giambi (1B, TB) is not the player he was ten years ago, but who is? He still draws walks in bunches and has the power to hit 30-35 homeruns. He is likely to ever bat .300 again but in the 20th round I’ll take what I can get.
R21 P2 Hughes, PhilipSP NYY
I know there were better bets available than Phil Hughes (RHP, NYY)who not only has to fight for a rotation spot but also against the expectations of fans that went from sky is the limit to “trade ‘em” in the space of one season. I expect him to make all of his doubters eat their words.
R22 P11 Ziegler, BradRP OAK
I am confident that Joey Devine (RHP, OAK) is going to close for the Oakland Athletics. However, Brad Zeigler (RHP, OAK) held that job for a portion of last season and at this point in the draft, I am willing to take a few chances.
R23 P2 Church, RyanOF NYM
For some reason, I ended up in auto-draft for the 23rd round and rather than select J.D. Drew (OF, BOS) I was given Ryan Church (OF, NYM). Church is a solid player and if he can remain healthy and the regular starter in right field he will exceed his draft position in actual value.
C: R. Doumit, J. Saltalamaccia
1B/3B/CR: P. Fielder, A. Beltre, J. Giambi
2B/SS/MI: B. Phillips, H. Ramirez, D. Uggla
U: J.J. Hardy
OF: S. Victorino, C. Hart, M. Ordonez, E. Byrnes, R. Church
SP: J. Lester, J. Chamberlain, J. Johnson, D. Lowe, M. Scherzer, J. Duchscherer, P. Hughes
RP: M. Rivera, B. Zeigler
The result is teams that should hits lots of homeruns and steal tons of bases. The offense should be one of the better ones in every category with the possible exception of batting average. The pitching staff could not be loaded with more potential. It is that potential being reached that will make the difference between a good team and a great one.
02/13/09 UPDATE: The Lindy's and Athlon 2009 Baseball Annuals are now on the stands. They aren't strictly fantasy mags but they both usually have interesting features on players and aspects of the game that fantasy owners can use. The Lindy's Annual is a mind blowing $9.50. The Athlon Annual is a typical $7.99.
