Showing posts with label Sleepers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sleepers. Show all posts

Thursday, January 10, 2013

The Re-Birth of Chris Tillman



Fantasy baseball owners love cheap starting pitching, especially when that pitcher comes with ace potential. While Chris Tillman’s days of being thought of as a frontline pitcher may be over, we probably have not seen the best of him. But we did see a few hints at the end of the 2012 season. In Fantasy Baseball nothing is as intriguing as a sleeper and Chris Tillman is emerging as a nice one.
Chris Tillman was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the second round of the 2006 draft. He was one of their better prospects when he was traded along with Adam Jones and others to the Orioles for Erik Bedard. This was a trade the Mariners surely came to regret. Jones has become a regular in the Orioles lineup and is developing into a major star. Tillman was expected to lead the Orioles great group of pitching prospects into a bright future for Baltimore. That did not happen.
Instead of success, Tillman went back and forth from the minors to the majors and back again. He was usually brilliant in the minors but got bombed after his call-ups. This pattern repeated itself throughout 2009 and 2010. It only got worse in 2011 when the velocity which had been at 95-plus MPH continued its decline into the 80s. He was now getting bombed just as bad in the minors and the majors. The experts were speculating that he was hiding an injury.
Before the 2012 season the Orioles hired Rick Peterson as their director of pitching development. He would oversee the organization's pitching development program and introduce the organization to biomechanical analysis.
"So when we have a lab in spring training, we get a guy in the bullpen at game speed and you have markers on him so the equipment will pick up angular measurements, linear measurements and rotational measurement. It's not video analysis, but you are getting true measurements of things like stride length, of external rotation, hip rotation velocities, the bend of knee at ball release…There are 40-some measurements in this testing. When you get the results back, you literally have the MRI of the pitching delivery. Then you can pinpoint very specifically, is there a flaw, No. 1, and if there is a flaw or flaws, is it mechanical, medical or conditioning? It's literally like ESPN's sports science for pitching."
After a slow start to the 2012 season Tillman was scheduled to meet with Peterson in mid-May. They worked on adjusting some movement patterns so he could be clean to the pitching rubber. They fixed the path and timing of his leg kick and his hands so that he could stay on time and be in rhythm. This allowed Tillman to better repeat his delivery. He now had a more consistent release point and eventually his velocity started to rise again.
"His throwing routine and his long-distance throwing, coupled with the ability to repeat his delivery," Peterson said. "We have seen this over the years with guys that have gone through this program. If you get a high-end velocity talent like Chris, and then you get the delivery clean, you start to see higher velocities and you see them maintained. (Miguel) Socolovich is a prime example and Miguel Gonzalez is an example of guys that have made these adjustments…If you looked at the delivery (of Tillman) prior to the ASMI analysis and look at it now, it is very apparent what the ASMI research has allowed us to identify to adjust."
Soon his ERA had dropped and his confidence was back. He was called up to face the Seattle Mariners in July and was so pumped that he pitched in the mid-90s and even hit 97mph. While his velocity did not stay at that level he was back in the 91-94mph range and pitching effectively. His swinging strike rate jumped from under six percent in 2011 to 8.1 percent in 2012. An increasing Swinging Strike Rate is an excellent indicator of a coming increase in overall strikeout rate.
Tillman was slowed a bit at the very end of the season by what was called right elbow stiffness. An MRI was performed which indicated his Ulnar Nerve was inflamed but the MRI did not show any damage.
"I thought it was real good news," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "The exam, [team orthtopedist] Dr. Wilckens and the MRI showed the same thing, just some inflammation at the most. All the structure is good, the ligament everything. The ulnar nerve is a little imflamed, which is normal this time of year."
Tillman finished the season with a 9-3 record and a 2.93 ERA in 86 innings pitched in the majors after 89.1 pitched in the minors. His half season was worth about $10-12 in a standard AL-only league. If you can get him for that price it would appear to have some profit potential. It may not be necessary. Early ADPs have Tillman going very late in drafts despite his recent resurgence. This may change a bit after the various expert sites release their magazines and draft guides.
The Dynasty Guru (one of my new favorites and hopefully one of yours too) recently wrote an article comparing Tillman to another pitcher who seemed to get his mojo back in 2012. Check it out.

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Fixing Drew Stubbs



When Paul O’Neil was still with the Cincinnati Reds he was not yet the player who led the New York Yankees during their 90’s Dynasty Years. Instead he was pressured by then manager Lou Piniella to pull the ball as often as possible in hopes that he would hit more homeruns. The results were mediocre. When the Yankees traded Roberto Kelly (my favorite player at the time) for O’Neil, I was quite mad about it. I would have bet anything at Sportsbetting.ag that the Yankees had just set back their re-building project by several years. I soon learned that Paul O’Neil was a much better player than I realized. The Yankees freed O’Neil to return to an all fields approach. Now Paul O’Neil is a treasured Yankee and is remembered as a great player.
I do not mean to suggest that Drew Stubbs will magically transform into the modern day Paul O’Neil (Ryan Braun?) now that he is in Cleveland. However, I do think he is a better player than the one the Reds basically threw away. The Reds tossed the Indians a player that was nearly without value at the plate in 2012. Stubbs batted just .213/.277/.333 last season. He walked less and struck out more. He hit more groundballs and infield flies and his lowest line drive rate ever. It was the worst season of a young player’s career.
Stubbs has a long swing that causes him to struggle to hit breaking pitches but especially the curveball and the changeup.  He swings at fewer pitches out of the zone than most players but he also makes worse contact when he does. He also swings at fewer pitches than most players both in and out of the zone and makes worse contact. 
Stubbs was drafted in 2006 out of the University of Texas. He was drafted just after players like Evan Longoria and Clayton Kershaw and before Tim Lincecum. According to Baseball America he was considered the best athlete, best defensive player, second-fastest base runner, and third-best power hitter among collegians. With a little tweaking and some hard work the Reds might have made Stubbs a better player before graduating him to the majors. Apparently the Reds were happy with Stubbs as he was and rushed him through the system in just over two seasons. He was placed into the hands of a manager who seemed to have little patience with young players. 
Since his call-up, Stubbs has displayed an excellent glove in center field, homerun power and a bunch of stolen bases. He has never hit for average in the majors (and did not do it much in the minors either) but his decent walk rates made his on-base percentage acceptable when combined with his other skills. Fantasy owners had no problem with his .250-.260 batting average because usually it came with around 15 homers and 30 stolen bases. But just like the Reds, fantasy owners abandoned him in droves when his average fell to .213 during the 2012 season.
As a player with both power and speed Stubbs can be expected to have a slightly higher than average BABIP and his career .323 BABIP fits. In 2012 his BABIP was just .290 which may be around average for most players but not for Stubbs. If nothing changes but his BABIP returns to the .330 level, Stubbs should have stats that resemble his 2010 and 2011 seasons. Hopefully is walk rate will rise back to its former level. His linedrives return and and he reduces those infield fly balls. The Indians would probably be happy with that. But if the Indians actually put some time in with Stubbs and worked on shortening his swing and improving his approach at the plate he could be even more than he was with the Reds. He could be the Cleveland version of Paul O’Neil.

Monday, December 17, 2012

What the Blue Jays Have Not Done




With today’s agreement on a contract extension between the Toronto Blue Jays and R.A. Dickey, the Blue Jays have successfully upgraded every aspect of their roster. They have a new leadoff hitter and shortstop in Jose Reyes. They have a new left fielder in Melky Cabrera. They have competition at second base between Macier Izturis (the favorite) and speedster Emilio Bonafacio, who if he is not at second will serve as an upgrade to Omar Vizquel the former utility player. The National Cy Young award winner is just one piece of a dramatically updated starting rotation: Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The team retained Anthony Gose as insurance against the continued regression of Colby Rasmus. Brett Lawrie is back at third base and primed for a big season after the experience of the 2012 season. The only spot that you might consider upgrading but has not even been considered by the Blue Jays is designated hitter – where their former stud first baseman now resides. 

Not so long ago, Adam Lind was a top prospect and a player that oozed the potential that fantasy owners lust after. The Blue Jays selected him in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft out of South Alabama University. He performed very well in the minors, showing an ability to hit for both average and power. The Blue Jays took their time working him into the regular lineup. He worked as both a part-time designated hitter and left fielder. In 2009 he earned a fulltime role in the lineup and hit .305/.370/.562 with 35 homeruns which was right in line with projections based on his minor league performances. 

He began the 2010 season right where the 2009 season had ended. But in early May of that season he was placed on the disabled list with a back injury which has been a recurring problem ever since. He got off to a great start to the 2011 season hitting .339, with 15 home runs and 44 RBIs in 46 games until the back injuries hit him again. It seems reasonable to assume that the back injuries have affected his swing at times. In fact early in the 2012 season there was a point where he could not bend over because his back was that stiffened and inflamed. Yet, he was not on the disabled list and was being treated with anti-inflammatory medication. Chris Lund of The Hardball Times wrote an article presenting video evidence of the changes in his swing due to the back injury.  He even suggests that the changes to his swing are causing the back injury to recur.

“The back injury is a significant marker because of the shift Lind has made in his swing. The way he engages his torso and lower half puts greater strain on his back for a player trying to generate enough bat speed to hit for power. As such, we have seen Lind miss games due to wrist and back injuries in the time since the original back problem.”

On May 17th of the 2012 season, Lind was sent to the minors. He was batting just .186 with three homeruns at the time. Two weeks later he was taken off the 40-man roster. The Blue Jays claimed they wanted Lind to work with minor league hitting instructor Chad Mottola on regaining his stroke. They clearly stated that there was no timetable and that he would not be recalled until they were certain he had earned another opportunity. Lind played 35 games altogether in the minors during the 2012 season. He hit .545/.615/.818 in three games at the double-A level, and .392/.448/.664 in 143 plate appearances for triple-A Las Vegas where he worked with Chad Mottola. On June 24th the Blue Jays recalled Adam Lind to the major leagues. He was a different player at that point.

Season
Split
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
ISO
BABIP
wOBA
wRC+
2012
Mar/Apr
0.21
0.306
0.333
0.639
0.120
0.238
0.283
75
2012
May
0.14
0.213
0.279
0.492
0.140
0.143
0.222
33
2012
Jun
0.29
0.375
0.714
1.089
0.429
0.200
0.454
192
2012
Jul
0.29
0.329
0.470
0.798
0.182
0.356
0.346
118
2012
Aug
0.30
0.333
0.450
0.783
0.150
0.333
0.341
115
2012
Sept/Oct
0.30
0.342
0.447
0.789
0.146
0.319
0.338
113

Obviously Lind did not transform back into the masher of 2009 but he became productive once again with a wRC+  of over one hundred in each month since. The major difference between these numbers and 2009 is almost entirely in batted ball types (and another stint on the disabled list with back problems). Lind is hitting a lot more groundballs and infield flies. His HR/FB took a turn in the right direction but with Lind hitting so many balls on the ground it does not show in his homerun total. However, if Lind does nothing but maintain his swing and this type of production he could hit 20-25 homers with a solid batting average. 

The key to Lind’s productivity is health. If he can stay off the disabled list and do the necessary stretching and exercise to both stay in shape and prevent his back from tightening it could help him put up numbers more in line with his potential. There is some hope that the big changes to the Blue Jays roster this offseason will serve as motivation.  Adam Lind is no longer the young guy that’s been there the longest. He does not have to be the veteran presence or protect anyone in the lineup or even play defense. All he has to do is hit and until the last couple of seasons he had done that very well his entire life.