Showing posts with label Starting Pitchers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Starting Pitchers. Show all posts

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Looking for Wins? IP, GB%, and Strikeouts are Key

Starting pitching is often the bane of fantasy teams. Owners can't stand most of their starters and they wish their league didn't have an innings floor so they could draft all relievers (especially in K9 leagues). They usually fail to do well in the wins category anyway...

If the paragragh above describes your thinking or even comes close I've got some questions and answers for you.

How does a pitcher get a win?
  1. He pitches at least five innings.
  2. He is the pitcher of record, when his team takes the lead for the final time.
  3. The bullpen doesn't blow it.
When you put together your pitching staff are you actually looking for wins?
  1. Many of the owners I speak to are looking for pitchers on teams that score lots of runs.
  2. They avoid pitchers on teams like the Royals and Indians (teams that lose a lot) and on teams like the Rangers and Rockies (play in offensive ballparks).
  3. They usually find themselves in the middle of the pack in most pitching categories. They are avoiding risk but not grabbing skills.
Do the last two questions correlate in any way?
  1. No.
  2. Seriously, no.
So, what should you look for in a starting pitcher?
  1. First, acknowledge that wins are a weak statistical category and have only a little relation to a pitcher's skill. Now, you're saying "a little? I thought it was no relation. " Think of it like this. If you or I went out to face the Yankees' lineup, we would have to get extremely lucky to get even one win with the world's greatest defense and pitching in the world's greatest pitcher's park. As a pitcher's skill level increases the chance of getting wins increases. So, yes, there is at least a little skill involved in gaining wins.
  2. Innings. The more innings the better the chance of gaining wins. An innings horse is most likely to pitch at least five innings. An innings horse will pitch through the innings covered by the weakest park of his team's bullpen. An innings horse just might pitch a complete game and leave just the final score out of his hands.
  3. I have a league mate that HATES adding innings to his staff. He believes that with innings come bad innings, and a poor pitcher with lots of innings will just drag his team down. That's kinda true. This is why you have to make certain that the pitchers you draft or buy at auction have certain skills. The ability to strikeout batters and the ability to induce weak groundballs.
  4. Strikeouts are the key. As you may realize, strikeouts measure a pitchers ability to keep the batter from putting the ball in play. When the ball is in play, the outcome is very difficult to control. Some would say impossible, but that isn't true. Some pitchers are very good at inducing infield fly balls, which are usually as good as outs. I do my best to avoid pitchers with less than a 7.5 K9.
  5. Groundballs are a good things. Especially the weakly hit ones. Even more so when they come from a pitcher with a high strikeout rate. This means that there are even fewer well hit balls in play than from a pitcher that does just one or the other. I do my best to draft a staff with a collective groundball rate of 45 percent or better.
Here is a list of the 31 starting pitchers with at least 190 innings pitched in 2010 and at least a 7.5 K9 rate. Look for young pitchers who finished the 2010 season with 140-160 innings that fit this criterion and you're looking at future aces you may get at a slight discount. But that's another article.

Name Team W L GS IP K/9 BABIP GB% ERA FIP
Tim Lincecum Giants 16 10 33 212.1 9.79 0.31 48.90% 3.43 3.15
Jon Lester Red Sox 19 9 32 208 9.74 0.289 53.60% 3.25 3.13
Jonathan Sanchez Giants 13 9 33 193.1 9.54 0.252 41.50% 3.07 4
Francisco Liriano Twins 14 10 31 191.2 9.44 0.331 53.60% 3.62 2.66
Jered Weaver Angels 13 12 34 224.1 9.35 0.276 36.00% 3.01 3.06
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 10 32 204.1 9.34 0.275 40.10% 2.91 3.12
Cole Hamels Phillies 12 11 33 208.2 9.1 0.289 45.40% 3.06 3.67
Justin Verlander Tigers 18 9 33 224.1 8.79 0.286 41.00% 3.37 2.97
Colby Lewis Rangers 12 13 32 201 8.78 0.275 37.90% 3.72 3.55
Ryan Dempster Cubs 15 12 34 215.1 8.69 0.294 47.40% 3.85 3.99
Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 19 8 33 221.2 8.69 0.271 48.80% 2.88 3.1
Max Scherzer Tigers 12 11 31 195.2 8.46 0.297 40.30% 3.5 3.71
Felix Hernandez Mariners 13 12 34 249.2 8.36 0.263 53.90% 2.27 3.04
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 20 11 33 230.1 8.32 0.275 51.60% 2.42 2.86
James Shields Rays 13 15 33 203.1 8.28 0.341 41.30% 5.18 4.24
Dan Haren - - - 12 12 35 235 8.27 0.311 40.50% 3.91 3.71
Wandy Rodriguez Astros 11 12 32 195 8.22 0.303 47.90% 3.6 3.5
Roy Oswalt - - - 13 13 32 211.2 8.21 0.253 45.70% 2.76 3.27
David Price Rays 19 6 31 208.2 8.11 0.27 43.70% 2.72 3.42
Chad Billingsley Dodgers 12 11 31 191.2 8.03 0.301 49.60% 3.57 3.07
Roy Halladay Phillies 21 10 33 250.2 7.86 0.29 51.20% 2.44 3.01
Cliff Lee - - - 12 9 28 212.1 7.84 0.287 41.90% 3.18 2.58
Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 9 10 32 194 7.79 0.256 37.10% 3.8 4.33
Edwin Jackson - - - 10 12 32 209.1 7.78 0.313 49.40% 4.47 3.86
Ted Lilly - - - 10 12 30 193.2 7.71 0.247 29.50% 3.62 4.27
Tommy Hanson Braves 10 11 34 202.2 7.68 0.286 41.80% 3.33 3.31
Gio Gonzalez Athletics 15 9 33 200.2 7.67 0.274 49.30% 3.23 3.78
Shaun Marcum Blue Jays 13 8 31 195.1 7.6 0.279 38.40% 3.64 3.74
C.J. Wilson Rangers 15 8 33 204 7.5 0.266 49.20% 3.35 3.56

Friday, August 27, 2010

Down the Stretch: The Top Starting Pitchers of 2010


Stephen Strasburg is already at the top of this list. However, he still needs to show he has the durability to produce over the course of a long season. Francisco Liriano is back to being one of the best in the game two years after his Tommy John Surgery. Josh Johnson is also proof that TJS is no longer a death sentence for a pitcher. It is however, hell on keeper lists.

Name Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP xFIP
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 12.18 2.25 5.41 0.66 1.07 0.338 72.70% 2.91 2.1 2.17
Francisco Liriano Twins 9.81 2.97 3.3 0.18 1.28 0.35 72.80% 3.45 2.33 3
Josh Johnson Marlins 8.7 2.2 3.95 0.37 1.08 0.301 78.90% 2.36 2.52 3.26
Cliff Lee - - - 7.78 0.57 13.73 0.67 0.98 0.301 69.60% 3.09 2.55 3.28
Roy Halladay Phillies 8.09 1.09 7.44 0.7 1.02 0.301 82.20% 2.22 2.75 2.89
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 8.09 2.22 3.64 0.52 1 0.265 81.20% 2.18 2.86 3.18
Brett Anderson Athletics 6.71 1.43 4.7 0.43 1.13 0.307 74.90% 2.86 2.9 3.36
Yovani Gallardo Brewers 9.78 3.79 2.58 0.5 1.34 0.332 72.20% 3.28 2.99 3.49
Felix Hernandez Mariners 8.46 2.47 3.43 0.62 1.11 0.29 76.40% 2.47 3.03 3.26
Tommy Hanson Braves 8.29 2.76 3 0.47 1.26 0.322 70.30% 3.53 3.12 4.07
Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 8.29 3.51 2.36 0.43 1.1 0.26 77.40% 2.66 3.13 3.75
Mat Latos Padres 9.08 2.52 3.6 0.82 0.98 0.252 84.00% 2.33 3.15 3.4
Brandon Morrow Blue Jays 10.81 4.06 2.66 0.66 1.36 0.341 69.10% 4.39 3.18 3.7
Anibal Sanchez Marlins 7.04 3.16 2.23 0.36 1.31 0.312 71.40% 3.16 3.2 4.21
Chad Billingsley Dodgers 7.58 3.08 2.46 0.43 1.32 0.32 71.50% 3.7 3.21 3.91
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 9.53 3.94 2.42 0.55 1.25 0.298 76.30% 3.07 3.22 3.89
Jon Lester Red Sox 9.17 3.2 2.86 0.66 1.18 0.295 74.40% 3.26 3.24 3.35
Felipe Paulino Astros 7.95 4.5 1.77 0.21 1.51 0.338 61.40% 4.4 3.24 4.59
Zack Greinke Royals 7.66 1.97 3.89 0.78 1.2 0.313 67.20% 3.83 3.3 3.72
Jered Weaver Angels 9.78 2.43 4.02 1.09 1.11 0.295 75.90% 3.21 3.31 3.55
Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 7.23 2.22 3.26 0.7 1.22 0.309 68.70% 3.56 3.32 3.6
Roy Oswalt - - - 8.26 2.38 3.47 0.83 1.1 0.28 74.50% 3.22 3.34 3.48
Justin Verlander Tigers 8.45 3.33 2.54 0.63 1.24 0.298 73.30% 3.65 3.34 4.06
Tim Lincecum Giants 9.46 3.5 2.7 0.77 1.35 0.331 75.10% 3.72 3.35 3.43
Tom Gorzelanny Cubs 8.2 3.98 2.06 0.48 1.45 0.334 70.40% 3.82 3.35 4.21
Jaime Garcia Cardinals 7.07 3.44 2.06 0.45 1.25 0.287 75.70% 2.42 3.37 3.74
John Danks White Sox 6.95 2.78 2.5 0.59 1.15 0.275 73.10% 3.31 3.37 4.05
Gavin Floyd White Sox 7.44 2.76 2.7 0.66 1.32 0.32 70.20% 3.91 3.4 3.76
Colby Lewis Rangers 8.7 2.79 3.12 0.84 1.17 0.291 75.60% 3.4 3.4 3.89
Ricky Romero Blue Jays 7.76 3.18 2.44 0.59 1.28 0.304 72.20% 3.5 3.4 3.6
David Price Rays 8.33 3.71 2.25 0.57 1.26 0.292 76.20% 2.97 3.41 4
R.A. Dickey Mets 6.06 2.21 2.74 0.64 1.17 0.285 77.70% 2.64 3.44 3.69
Johan Santana Mets 6.59 2.55 2.58 0.67 1.18 0.283 79.10% 2.94 3.48 4.34
Brett Myers Astros 7.03 2.58 2.73 0.76 1.23 0.297 75.40% 3.08 3.51 3.76
Jeff Francis Rockies 5.73 1.94 2.95 0.68 1.27 0.31 64.40% 4.56 3.53 3.96
Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 9.28 4.27 2.18 0.64 1.28 0.291 70.50% 3.63 3.53 3.72
Doug Fister Mariners 4.99 1.69 2.96 0.63 1.25 0.305 67.40% 3.87 3.57 4.21
Jason Hammel Rockies 7.32 2.4 3.05 0.82 1.3 0.32 69.40% 4.35 3.57 3.75
Matt Cain Giants 7.01 2.81 2.49 0.72 1.14 0.269 74.80% 3.07 3.57 4.38
Wandy Rodriguez Astros 7.69 2.97 2.59 0.73 1.35 0.324 67.50% 4 3.58 3.8
CC Sabathia Yankees 7.24 2.93 2.48 0.72 1.22 0.288 77.00% 3.02 3.59 3.88
Clayton Richard Padres 7.1 3.61 1.97 0.56 1.4 0.316 76.10% 3.55 3.6 4.13
C.J. Wilson Rangers 7.35 4.01 1.84 0.44 1.21 0.263 74.10% 3.02 3.6 4.25
Clay Buchholz Red Sox 6.2 3.42 1.81 0.45 1.2 0.265 79.40% 2.26 3.61 4.21
Gio Gonzalez Athletics 7.49 3.97 1.89 0.56 1.27 0.279 75.80% 3.24 3.63 4.14
Travis Wood Reds 7.19 2.49 2.88 0.88 0.98 0.23 67.20% 3.38 3.71 4.33
Dallas Braden Athletics 5.64 1.77 3.18 0.82 1.15 0.281 70.60% 3.49 3.72 4.16
Carlos Silva Cubs 6.33 1.92 3.3 0.83 1.24 0.306 72.40% 3.92 3.73 3.95
Ricky Nolasco Marlins 8.5 1.73 4.9 1.33 1.23 0.323 72.90% 4.22 3.75 3.48
Carl Pavano Twins 5.19 1.53 3.39 0.84 1.16 0.285 73.90% 3.56 3.76 3.93
John Ely Dodgers 6.67 2.82 2.36 0.79 1.32 0.306 65.80% 4.63 3.78 3.98
Shaun Marcum Blue Jays 7.51 1.97 3.82 1.13 1.13 0.284 73.60% 3.7 3.83 3.94
Chris Carpenter Cardinals 6.98 2.49 2.8 0.88 1.15 0.275 79.90% 2.88 3.83 3.81
Luke Hochevar Royals 6.58 3.23 2.04 0.69 1.38 0.312 62.40% 4.96 3.84 4.22
Joel Pineiro Angels 5.69 2.19 2.59 0.89 1.31 0.306 71.70% 4.18 3.88 3.87
Livan Hernandez Nationals 4.74 2.88 1.65 0.59 1.31 0.288 75.70% 3.36 3.89 4.77
Tim Hudson Braves 4.86 2.89 1.68 0.56 1.1 0.239 83.50% 2.28 3.89 4
Max Scherzer Tigers 8.34 3.61 2.31 0.93 1.31 0.297 72.80% 3.73 3.91 4.02
Dan Haren - - - 8.43 1.82 4.63 1.39 1.32 0.339 72.00% 4.45 3.91 3.63
Jonathon Niese Mets 7.17 2.8 2.56 0.91 1.33 0.313 78.80% 3.33 3.92 3.93
Brett Cecil Blue Jays 6.44 2.84 2.27 0.9 1.23 0.28 72.80% 3.8 3.92 4.18
Mike Pelfrey Mets 5.2 3.11 1.67 0.6 1.45 0.316 74.00% 3.82 3.93 4.41
Cole Hamels Phillies 9.22 2.71 3.4 1.3 1.23 0.304 81.10% 3.47 3.95 3.49
Andy Pettitte Yankees 7 2.96 2.37 0.93 1.2 0.274 80.70% 2.88 3.96 4.05
Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox 7.86 4.12 1.91 0.76 1.32 0.286 70.80% 4.19 3.96 4.64
Jason Vargas Mariners 5.68 2.49 2.29 0.89 1.2 0.273 75.90% 3.43 3.97 4.7
Bud Norris Astros 9.27 3.83 2.42 1.04 1.43 0.331 63.80% 5.03 3.98 3.91
Scott Baker Twins 7.42 1.96 3.79 1.25 1.33 0.327 71.80% 4.63 3.99 4
Jair Jurrjens Braves 6.25 2.94 2.13 0.85 1.29 0.291 67.60% 4.36 3.99 4.52
John Lackey Red Sox 6.05 3.24 1.87 0.74 1.49 0.328 70.50% 4.51 4 4.51

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Searching for a Pitching Upgrade?

Hi Jon

Looking to improve my pitching and capitalize on what I think is a buy-low / sell-high.

I deal:
Carl Crawford, Billy Butler, Scott Baker and Carlos Marmol

I get:
Justin Upton, Juan Pierre, Dan Haren and Huston Street.

I'm thinking I net even on steals, saves and Ks and am sacrificing RBI and Average for improved pitching ratios and upside potential in both Upton and Haren.

What do you think?
I think we should start by looking at the stats of the players involved.

Carl Crawford - .310/.373/.488, with seven homers, 57 runs, 38 RBI and 27 stolen bases

Crawford seems to be past his shoulder problems. He hit .296/.380/.481 with 12 stolen bases in June. The last seven days he has hit .364/.364/.455 so he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

Billy Butler - .322/.377/.480, with 8 homers, 40 runs, 42 RBI and zero stolen bases

Billy Butler is having a nice season. He might be slower to develop the power we'd like to see out of our first basemen but there is very little to complain about here. For June he is batting .284/.333/.461 and .304/.385/.478 the lat seven days.

Scott Baker - 4.97 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.81 xFIP with six wins, 7.78 K9, 1.78 BB9, and 1.41 HR9

June has not been kind to Scott Baker. But most of the problem as illustrated by his xFIP has been poor luck. With a regression closer to his FIP seeming likely, I think he will have an excellent second half.

Carlos Marmol - 2.27 ERA/2.32 FIP/ 2.84 xFIP with two wins, 14 saves, 16.65 K9, 6.31 BB9 0.25 HR9

Marmol isn't always great in non-save situations. The Cubs losing ways don't help. However, Marmol has provided excellent numbers and a decent save total. He has a pretty firm grip on the closer role at this point.

Now, the return package:

Justin Upton - .269/.355/.472 with 14 homers, 48 runs, 39 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Upton began the season rather slow but has hit .312/.423/.548 with six homers and three stolen bases in June. Crawford has been better than him thus far but if Upton keeps up his current pace he will have been the better player at the end of the season.

Juan Pierre - .249/.317/ .279 with zero homers, 39 runs, 13 RBI and 29 stolen bases

Juan Pierre is not a great hitter. However he has value to fantasy teams because the White Sox let him run wild. Unfortunately he provides zero power and not much run production. I would not expect his numbers to improve but they shouldn't decline much either.

Dan Haren - 4.56 ERA/3.90 FIP/3.43 xFIP with seven wins, 8.90 K9, 1.70 BB9, 1.47 HR9

Haren has not been as bad as Baker but they both have had rotten luck. This is especially surprising in the year of the pitcher. Haren has not been particularly great of late. He may be an upgrade over Baker but not a tremendous one.

Huston Street - his stats are irrelevant at this point

Street has just returned to the Rockies active roster after spending most of the season on the disabled list. I can ignore my code against trading for pitchers recently coming off the disabled list (even ones with shoulder injuries and a lot of bad injury history). However, I still have to point out that despite achieving his first save, manager Jim Tracy is insisting that the closer-by-committee is still in effect. This is not to say he won't re-earn the job, just that he does not yet have it secured.

In Conclusion
Whew...so. Our reader is looking for a pitching upgrade. There is probably one here, assuming Street stays healthy and becomes the closer again. Not an assumption I would make, but it is a fair possibility. It is a risk but one that is (as the reader surmised) at the cost of batting average, probably a few homers and some RBI production. I believe he'll actually gain in steals. But the actual difference in pitching is almost nothing. For perhaps a few points of ERA, you lose quite a bit if nothing changes.

The entire trade seems to hinge on Dan Haren pitching like the top ten pitcher he was expected to be. He has yet to show much of that Haren to this point. And although I don't really believe in labeling players first or second half players, Haren is definitely more of the later. Check out his last three years of stats:

By Day/Month ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
April2.10960017171111.283352692189.203
May3.07640016160111.18838381119103.214
June1.80910017171120.17726241123110.180
July2.771030016161107.199393362399.236
August4.97760017170108.213264602119112.295
September4.38460016161102.212253501127101.298
October7.5001001106.0955117.346

















Pre All-Star2.3427130056563385.02841151003370342.202

















Post All-Star4.3318140044441283.03261451363763279.286

I would save my trade ammo for a more certain upgrade. I think the risk that nothing is gained in the desired areas is too strong in this deal. I would pass and look to acquire a pitcher performing better right now. Perhaps one of these guys:

NameTeamK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9AVGWHIPBABIPLOB%ERAFIPE-FxFIP

Francisco LirianoTwins9.672.463.930.18.2591.26.35571.9 %3.472.201.273.01
Cliff LeeMariners7.340.4715.600.47.2350.92.28971.6 %2.452.340.103.31
Josh JohnsonMarlins8.922.253.960.33.2020.96.27081.9 %1.832.47-0.643.17
Roy HalladayPhillies7.751.186.590.69.2571.11.31580.3 %2.422.85-0.433.04
Tim LincecumGiants10.163.652.790.52.2311.25.31975.9 %3.132.880.253.22
Jered WeaverAngels10.452.124.920.97.2331.09.31175.3 %3.012.930.083.22
Yovani GallardoBrewers9.913.802.610.50.2231.23.30479.2 %2.562.97-0.413.46
Jon LesterRed Sox9.343.452.710.42.2051.11.27776.5 %2.863.02-0.163.44
Ubaldo JimenezRockies8.123.192.550.40.1991.05.25586.2 %1.833.08-1.243.68
Adam WainwrightCardinals8.602.413.560.68.2131.03.26981.3 %2.343.11-0.773.28
Any other opinions on this deal out there? Feel free to leave your questions, comments or even complaints in the comment section.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

2010 Free Agents: Starting Pitchers

Josh Beckett will definitely have his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox. But this list is a lot stronger than we've been led to believe by the bigger media guys. If I ran a team like the Washington Nationals I'd be all over Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb (if the D'Backs are actually dumb enough to let him go), Rich Harden, John Smoltz, Justin Duchscherer, and Randy Wolf. Sure, there is a bunch of risk there, but the upside is incredible and the discounts should be substantial.

Key Sleepers: Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar

Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA (B)
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras COL
Doug Davis ARZ (B)
Justin Duchscherer OAK (B)
Adam Eaton COL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Jon Garland * LAD (B)
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton HOU
Rich Harden CHC (B)
Livan Hernandez WAS
Tim Hudson * ATL - got his wish Thursday after completing a three-year, $28 million extension that includes a fourth-year option for 2013.
Randy Johnson SF (B)
John Lackey LAA (A)
Cliff Lee * PHI (A)
Braden Looper * MIL (B)
Jason Marquis COL (B)
Kevin Millwood * TEX
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * LAD (B)
Carl Pavano MIN (B)
Brad Penny SF - Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports the Cardinals have agreed to terms with Brad Penny on a one-year, $7.5 million.
Odalis Perez WAS
Andy Pettitte NYY (B) - Veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees have agreed to terms on a one-year contract worth $11.75 million, major league sources tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
Joel Pineiro STL (B)
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz STL
Tim Wakefield * BOS (B)
Jarrod Washburn DET
Todd Wellemeyer STL
Randy Wolf (A) - The Brewers on Wednesday succeeded in luring free agent left-hander Randy Wolf with a three-year contract that reportedly includes a club option for a fourth year. Other reports followed, including one in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, saying Wolf is guaranteed about $29 million. Other reports on the value of the contract's first three years ranged from $27 million to $30 million.

The Dodgers signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal worth $700K in the Majors, according to the AP.