Trade Advice: Chipper/Slowey for Valverde/Bartlett

Jon,

I have a deep pitching staff in a 12 person H2H league. I was looking to shop Kevin Slowey and Chipper Jones for Jose Valverde and Jason Bartlett. Is this a good deal?

Best Regards,

Robert

Hey Robert,

Thanks for reading. I really appreciate it.

Let's look at all of the players involved individually and then make a decision on the trade offer.

As I'm sure you know, Jose Valverde has had a few injury problems this season. Thankfully, the problems have been with his calf rather than his arm. Assuming the leg is fully healed he should have no problems. When healthy he is one of the better closing talents in baseball. I think he'll have a big second half.

Jason Bartlett is having the best season of his career thus far. He will continue to steal bases at a terrific rate. But I do not believe he can maintain his present 27 percent line drive rate, and .rage is 410 BABIP. His batting average is likely to keep dipping through the second half. His plate discipline has improved slightly. He is swinging at better pitches. Unfortunately, it hasn't translated into an increased walk rate. I believe he has become a better hitter but I do not think his power increase is real. I think he'll hit for a decent batting average, steal lots of bases but without the power he showed to start the season.

I like Kevin S lowey's potential a lot. He rarely walks anyone and has an excellent K/BB rate which is a sign of a talented pitcher. On the unfortunate side, Slowey is a fly ball pitcher. He is often hurt by the homerun, which is what led to his poor start this season. He has turned things around lately and I believe that he will finish the season strongly.

Chipper Jones is an excellent hitter with good power. He is having his typical season of high productivity between bouts with nagging injuries. He is presently having a problem with a sore toe but is mostly battling through it. I think he'll finish the season in this same typical fashion with a .300-plus average and 20-plus homers.

So what would you gain from this trade? Definitely stolen bases and saves, which I assume is what you are hoping to gain. You will lose some power if I'm right about Bartlett's drop off. You will also lose some innings and wins (naturally going from a starter to a reliever). I don't know the rest of your team but I assume your remaining starters are up to the job and you probably are not depending on Chipper's power.

I would do it if I were you.

Thanks again for reading.

Jon Williams
Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Trade Advice: Carlos Lee/Edwin Jackson for Adam Lind/CC Sabathia

The following is a request for trade advice I received by e-mail. It has been slightly edited for length and clarity.

Hey Jon, I have been in talks with an owner in my Keeper League who owns CC Sabathia. The guy I am talking to wants power hitters and is interested in Edwin Jackson. I really like Edwin Jackson as a keeper league because I feel like he'll continue to get better and better. I offered him a trade and let him know I was really only interested in Carl Crawford and Sabathia from his team. I would give Carlos Lee, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Rodney, and Carl Pavano for Carl Crawford, CC Sabathia, and David Ortiz (this was before his recent hot streak). He actually liked the framework of the deal if we could pull out Carl Crawford. Adam Lind is another guy on his team I would not mind owning. But I do not know if I completely trust his season let alone his future talent. I have been told good things many times and have read about his future, but I do not want to create a gaping hole in my offense where Carlos Lee once stood to give my pitching just a small increase. I also own Nolasco, Peavy, Lincecum, Hanson, Beckett, Price, Harang, Vazquez and Ervin Santana. I feel that I have a pretty strong rotation...plus if Santana of LA can turn it around and Pavano can stay solid as well as Vazquez I have a pretty strong rotation. I just need some advice if you can dish some out. Really just another opinion besides my buddy who is also in the league. Thanks Jon. -Gary

Hey Gary,

I don't think you're desperate enough for pitching to do this deal without Carl Crawford. But it may interest you to know that Carlos Lee and Adam Lind are much closer than most realize at this point.

Carlos Lee: .313/.363/.520 w/ 29runs, 11hr, 40rbi, 5sb
Adam Lind: .300/.364/.534 w/ 37runs, 12hr, 45rbi, 1sb

Unless there are salaries attached that I'm unaware of, these two players are virtually the same. Lind is probably a little bit better statistically but to a very small degree. He also plays in a better lineup which gives him superior runs/rbi totals. I do think Lind could hit a wall soon, but he seems to have the skills to adjust. I think he'll be a very good hitter for a long time.

Edwin Jackson also compares very well to CC Sabathia this year. If Jackson played for the Yankees he would be on the verge of becoming a huge star. Trading Jackson for Sabathia would net you very little if anything.

CC Sabathia: 5-4, 3.68era, 1.13whip, 6.48 K9, 2.81 BB9, 3.74 FIP
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 2.24era, 1.03whip, 6.62 K9, 2.34 BB9, 3.27 FIP

Since these two parts of the trade balance out so well the remainder of the deal becomes Fernando Rodney and Carl Pavano for David Ortiz. I believe that Ortiz will have a strong second half of the season and be a solid if not great player to own from this point. But you would be giving up a solid closer and a solid starter for a player that to this point has been nothing but disappointing. I think that price is too high.

Even if you can afford to give up the saves and innings you'll get from Rodney and Pavano I don't see enough of a gain for you. A solid closer alone should bring you a solid veteran already having a good season. And as you mentioned, your pitching staff is already potentially very strong. You would be making this trade just to make it.

Good luck Gary, let me know if I can help any further.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Contend or Bust!

This week we have the pleasure of hosting the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. I asked a question on the minds of many fantasy owners at this point in the season...

You find yourself in 7th place in a 15 team mixed 5x5 league. You've just lost your best hitter to injury and your pitching isn't that good. If you really want to win, what do you do?

We received a bunch of great answers. If you find yourself in a tight race or falling behind, the advice from this group of experts just might show you how to pull ahead.

Mike Podhorzer – Fantasy Pros 911

Find the nearest tissue box, wipe the tears away, and gently explain to yourself that due to some bad luck, this just might not be your year. Or you could simply come to terms with the fact that you may just not be a very good fantasy baseball player! On a serious note, it really depends on a number of factors that were not given in the question. Absolute rank in the standings means a lot less than how many points you are behind a money spot. It is also important to know how close the category totals are and how easy it is to gain points. I would look over my roster to see how many under performers I own and if there is any hope for a rebound for these players. I would be much more confident in a second half run if my team was loaded with slow starters than if I had players performing right at expectations. There is really no great piece of advice for this situation, other than simply trading for better value, trying your best to acquire pitchers whose skills are better than their ERAs suggest and crossing your fingers that your team enjoys better fortune over the rest of the season. Panic moves and trades just to "shake things up" will probably do more harm than good.

Tommy Landry – RotoExperts

At this point in the season, it is time to pull out the stops if you are muddling in the middle and suffering from injuries. I would start working the wire on my pitching ASAP, shooting to snag guys on a tear before they cool off or hot prospects facing MLB batters for the first time. Even though most roto leagues have a pitching start limit, don't let that scare you off of maxing out your starts as soon as possible in this scenario. There are always useful MRs out there in mixed leagues, and once you use up all your starts, you can get cheap wins and Ks with respectable ratios from a long list of relievers down the stretch. For hitting, now is the time to cut the dead weight and start gambling on players who are likely to be called up over the summer. Look at what guys like Alexi Casilla and Mike Aviles did late last season. Keep an eye on guys like Matt LaPorta, Eric Young Jr. (will be a huge speed source once he's up, but beware the BA and OBP), and even Alcides Escobar, for example. And faithfully check the waiver wire daily, because I've managed to snag some gems already this year, including John Lackey in a shallow league and Casey Blake (seriously, look at the numbers) in a very deep experts league. Most of all, never surrender!

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority

My typical answer is to trade pitching for hitting, even if you don't have much. If I had one good starter, I would shop him. If I felt I could find saves on the waiver wire, I would shop my best closer or even package up two closers for a top bat. Beyond that, I wouldn't do anything. I am not a fan of shaking a team up for the sake of shaking it up. At the time of this writing, 64% of the season remains. Plenty of time for a 7th place team to climb the standings if you believe in your players.

Patrick Cain – Albany Times Union

You are in seventh right now, congrats you're on a one-way street to irrelevancy so the hitter you lost probably doesn't matter too much. And for your pitching? Well, there is not much on your wire either I bet. So gear up, it is time to focus and focus hard on an achievable strategy.

I will assume your "best hitter" is one that has power. Ditch HRs. Ok, don't abandon them, but settle for finishing in the bottom 3. RBI are going to lag too, but that depends greatly on your other positions. As for offense, I'd try something like going for AVG, SB, R. That means Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford are being fast tracked over to my squad as I sacrifice some pop....don't forgot you can deal that injured hitter assuming he's not out for the season. From there, make sure your weakest guys - the $1 or $2 like players - are hitting high in the lineup. Until recently, a prime example would have been Skip Schumaker.

If you can own SBs, R, AVG and you avoid dead last for RBI & HR, your offense isn't in that bad of shape. Let's say can get 1st on those 3 and 12th for the other 2...that's 53 of 75 points. With that you'll average out to be in the top 3rd, and that is typically were a team in the hunt needs to be.

Oh yea, keep your offensive bench thin to nonexistent. You'll see why.

As for pitching, exploit mid-relievers. Many non-hold leagues forget about the no-name 7th inning men. Ideally, the rest of your league will have fewer pitchers as they will have an offensive bench. Think about this: a crappy starter (say Ross Ohlendorf) goes something like this... 5 innings 3 ER, 2 Ks. Nobody wants that. If a few mid relievers contribute that night you could get 8 Innings, 3 ER, 6 Ks, on the night. Presto, you just turned Ohlendorf into an average starter by adding pinch of Mike Wuertz to the equation.

This will help your ERA, WHIP, and Ks a phenomenal amount. And when a closer goes down, you'll probably have the backup, putting you in line for Saves.

A completely different approach would be to pick up guys with extremes vs. left vs. right splits and play matchups. But I'm guessing someone else will touch on that.

Adam Ronis – Newsday

The first thing you need to do is analyze where you are in categories. You might have five points in home runs, but be 10 homers away from getting 10 points. Look at the categories where you can move up and target those categories. You need to work the waiver wire well, even though the pickings may be slim. You also need to take chances. Look for players that are struggling and have track records and try to acquire them. A guy like Chris Young from the Diamondbacks is an example. He has power and speed, but has been awful. Try and find players that are struggling but have proven in the past they can get it done. The bottom line is don't give up. Make trades and be aggressive.

Rudy Gamble – RazzBall

Why don't you add a few more hindrances? How about the cable company turned off my Internet access? Or I have been caught for not paying taxes on my past years' fantasy baseball league winnings and I am being sent to prison?

Winning at this point - assuming it isn't very tight between 1st place and 7th place - is highly unlikely. You obviously have to take some chances. I would gamble on young players and look to make some trades to upgrade weak spots with an emphasis on strong 2nd-half players. If there is anyone on my team that is a possible sell-high candidate, I am looking to move them. Same with closers as I would rather take the risk of finding saves off the waiver wire.

Jon Williams – Advanced Fantasy Baseball

The most important thing to remember is that you have more than half the season to make up ground. Use trades to fill any holes in your lineup. One of my favorite strategies is to trade a star player for two less popular but productive veterans. Often you will lose a little in the Homerun and Stolen Base categories but you will gain in Runs and RBI. I suggest you trade for hitting help because good bats are extremely hard to find on waivers. I also would play up the strengths of the players you do have. If you have power but no batting average or speed concentrate on building your power stats even higher. If you have a surplus in a category you can trade it for players that will help you gain ground in whichever category is easiest.

Concentrate your FAAB bids and waiver claims to build your pitching statistics. You can never count on building points in the wins category so do not even try. Instead, look to gain in ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts. If you own mediocre or bad starters, dump or trade the bad ones for the best middle relievers available. Often a few good middle relievers can do the job of an ace pitcher. Also, keep an eye out for pitchers that are performing better than their results. Until recently, Jon Lester was a very good example of the kind of pitcher you want to target.

If you are in a keeper league, consider trading your best prospects and keepers for more expensive one-year players. The goal is always to win this year. You can worry about next season in 2010. Any upgrade you make is going to make winning that much easier.

Do not give up! You can do it!

Question: Can Liriano and Lester Recover?

Dear Jon,

My name is Max Estes and I found your website through mlbtraderumors.com on Monday and I REALLY enjoy it! I have two conundrums in a extremely competitive head-to-head 7x7 (Runs, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, IP, W, L. Save, Strike Outs, ERA and WHIP) keeper (10 keepers plus 1 minor leaguer) league of which I am the commissioner. I could use your guidance. The categories I'm having some trouble in are AVG, SLG, Saves and sometimes SB. I received an offer from another manager where I would get Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano and Matt Lindstrom for Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester.

I was thinking about taking out Verlander for either Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard. What is your opinion of those trades. Also I have an offer of I get Marco Scuturo for Gary Sheffield. I need an IF more than an OF but I could use the power. If you need any more information or more players on my team please let me know. Thank you in advance for helping me.

Max Estes

Hey Max,

Thanks for checking out the site and deciding to stick round. I appreciate it a lot. I need to thank Tim Dierkes, he's been sending a lot of readers my way lately. But to your trades...

Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano, and Matt Lindstrom

for

Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester

You did not include any prices or rounds so I'm going to assume that they do not matter in regards to who you choose to keep. If that assumption is wrong just let me know but for now I'm going to evaluate the trade as if you could keep anyone you choose without penalty.

Carlos Beltran is the best player in the deal by far, despite Hunter Pence having his strongest season yet. Unfortunately, being a Houston Astro sort of limits the Runs and RBI potential. A Rule of Thumb for Fantasy Baseball trading is that if you gain the best player in the deal you win the trade. They call it a Rule of Thumb because that isn't always a very accurate measure. Both players are hitting for very good averages, both are hitting for power (although not as much as we might hope as far as homeruns are concerned), and both are stealing a few bases. Beltran is just better in all of those categories. Beltran would be an upgrade over Pence but not a mind-blowing one.



Francisco Liriano is having a very tough season. His control is way off which is much more damaging than any perceived loss of stuff. He is having a degree of bad luck but a FIP of 4.88 indicates it is a bit more than just bad luck. He also seems to have abandoned his change-up. Which is resulting in more flyballs hit on his fastball, which resulted in a higher homerun rate. That's a major mistake for him and something that is easily fixed assuming he hasn't lost the feel for the pitch somehow. This could have a lot to do with Joe Mauer's absence for most of the first two months of the season. It's hard to judge based on one start but in his May 25th start his control seemed to be back and the result was zero walks, and seven strikeouts (and 11 hits) in just four innings. There were also small signs of recovery in the few starts before that one. It is based on a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet Liriano is about to enter a very strong stretch of pitching.

You would also receive the Florida Marlins closer, Matt Lindstrom. He may be a closer but Lindstrom is not going to help you in any category except saves. His control has been about as bad as it could be. I'm shocked he hasn't lost the role to one of the Marlins' many prospects. But you need saves and he does get them.

You would be giving up Justin Verlander who is pitching great and Jon Lester who has had disappointing results thus far. Believe it or not Verlander has been pretty unfortunate this season. His BABIP is bloated at .339 and his LOB percentage is just 64.9 compared to his career mark of 71.5 percent. In short, Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. As bad as Verlander's luck has been, Jon Lester's has been much worse. Lester's .379 BABIP has been a huge hindrance to his owners. That and a 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has ruined his results. Balls that were harmless infield flies last year (12.9% in 2008, 4.8% in 2009) are now being launched out of the park. This is going to turn around soon. It has to, or Lester could be the causulty of the return of John Smoltz who is looking very good in his rehab starts. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden pitching great in the minors.

You are going to lose quite a bit from your pitching staff if you make this deal but I understand that this is your strength. Exchanging Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard (both are pitching pretty good) for Verlander would help make it a bit better for you and still provide your trading partner a significant upgrade over what he was getting before. If you can get him to make the switch from Verlander I would do the deal. It has some risk, but I think you'll get enough of an upgrade where you need it (SLG, Saves, and Stolen Bases) to make it worth while. This is especially true if you believe (as I do) that Francisco Liriano will turn it around. Liriano is the key. If you believe, you can do this trade. If you don't believe then you should keep trying to re-work it.

As for the Marcus Scutaro and Gary Sheffield deal, I would just hang on to Sheffield. Scutaro is having a nice season, but I think it will all be downhill from here for him. Sheffield is going to get to play a lot and when he's playing well there are few better.

Good luck Max!

Ten Fantasy Baseball Trade Secrets

Mid-May is when trading season begins in a lot of leagues. This is the point in the year when owners start to feel comfortable that they know what they have on their team. But what is the secret to making successful trades? What makes a trade successful anyway? Is it fleecing another owner without incurring a league veto? Most owners dream of pulling off the killer trade for themselves, but would admit that a successful trade is one that makes the owner of all the teams involved happy. Every league is unique. I have been in leagues that value the best minor leaguers as priceless and others that consider them almost worthless. The success of a trade is going to be different in the eyes of every individual owner. There are whole books you can buy about the art of trading but here are ten trading tips that may help you make more effective fantasy baseball deals.

1. Know as much about the other owner and his team as possible. You should be checking in with the other teams in your league at least once a week anyway but especially when you are being offered a trade or seeking a trade. You want to measure what the trade would do for your trading partner as well as what it would do for your roster. In which categories will they gain or lose ground? Are they trading from strength? Are they looking desperate?
2. Try using the telephone. These days everyone may have an e-mail address but that does not mean that they check it as frequently as you might. Find out how the owner you are dealing with likes to discuss things. Instant messenger and e-mail are great but they lack the personal feeling that a telephone conversation has. It is much easier to decline a trade sent by e-mail. But many people find it very hard to say no to someone who has presented their case in a well-reasoned yet concise phone presentation. Trust me, I used to be that telemarketer that convinced you to support the Special Olympics or the politician of the month for much too long. Remember to prepare your sales pitch ahead of time. You want to want to sound as confident s possible that this is a good deal for both teams. Finish with phrases that provoke a yes or no answer, such as "sounds good, doesn't it", "wouldn't you like to have (the player in question) on your team?" and you'll be that much closer to a deal.
   
3. Improve another team to help your own. You may look at your league's standings and discover that you have more points between you and a championship than you can gain on your own. Rather than resign yourself to finishing second or worse look at trades you might make to bring your rival back to the pack. If your rival can be caught in saves by another league member that won't catch you in the standings, consider trading a closer to that owner and costing your rival a point in saves.
4. Do a thorough check on the health and performance of the players involved in a deal. You do not want to be caught trading for David Ortiz not knowing that his production is way off the norm. Or trading for closer Kevin Gregg without realizing how poorly he has pitched. You might think you received a great deal on Rafael Furcal until you realize that his back problems have resurfaced and he's losing playing time to Juan Castro of all people. These are all extreme examples but you get the idea.
   
5. Get a second opinion. Sometimes we're so attached to certain players or so covetous of others that we can't judge a deal properly. Or maybe you're having a hard time pulling the trigger for whatever reason. This is where your friends come in handy. If all your friends/advisors are in the same league you can always call on me. IM:bigjonempire, e-mail:advancedfantasybaseball@gmail.com, send me a twitter message @bigjonwilliams, or even call me on Skype -- bigjonempire ( I can't promise to monitor this route much but you can occasionally catch me this way). If time is of the essence send me an e-mail with your phone number and I'll call you right back.
6. If you get an offer you don't like, don't freak out, just make a counter offer. I read about poor reactions to trade offers all the time. Reacting with anger or any excess emotion over a bad offer is really just a waste of time. It also creates bad will with an owner who may have just honestly misjudged the value of a player. If you present a counter offer you create a dialogue which could lead to a trade that is much better than the one you refused. But don't try to out bad offer him, suggest a fair trade that would actually help your team and his. You may end up making your league stronger by doing this.
7. You'll usually get more by making several small trades then you will in one big one. This is especially true when you're in rebuilding mode. You can squeeze an extra minor leaguer or a draft pick or some FAAB dollars out of each owner you deal with and come out way ahead of what one owner could ever (even if he wanted to) give you on his own.
   
8. The Superstars are expensive, often the everyday player without the hype comes much cheaper and can be just as effective. Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera will cost you a fortune in most leagues but Ryan Franklin and Brad Ziegler come much cheaper. Far too often when owners decide they need an offense upgrade they look to make a trade for Miguel Cabrera or David Wright and they end up making just a small upgrade at best. But if they went after guys like Russell Branyan or Mike Lowell they would have to part with much less for a still significant upgrade.
9. Concern yourself with the end result more than the price. You may think giving up a certain keeper for a collection of players you would never keep is madness. However, if that collection of players would guarantee you a championship it would be a very small price to pay.
10. Trust your gut feelings. If your gut told you that Phil Hughes was gonna be great this season you should have held on to him for more than two starts (okay, I'm talking to myself here). Especially when you're selling him low. Seriously, if you have a bad feeling about a deal DO NOT MAKE IT! You will feel like crap when you discover you were right.
    

Is the LIMA Plan really a viable strategy?

Another Side of Kerouac: The Dharma Bum as Sports Nut

To Trade David Wright or Not is the Question

I recently received the following e-mail from a loyal reader:

Jon,

I'm in a 14 team, highly competitive keeper league in the midst of our 5th year. I have owned and been extremely happy with David Wright since the leagues inception. I have finished 3rd and 4th the past two years and I'm extremely motivated to win this season. I have been offered a very enticing trade and would appreciate your unbiased fantasy mind opinion of this proposed deal.

I would be trading:
David Wright, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach Duke and Asdrubal Carbera

to obtain...

Miguel Cabrera, Brian Roberts, Heath Bell, Erik Bedard and Matt Cain

I'm very tied and invested in David Wright and find it difficult to part with him, however, I feel this deal could drastically improve my team in needed areas of HR, RBI, SV, and K please dispense upon me your knowledge and opinion of this deal.

Thanks,

Mark

I love this trade for you Mark. I do not believe you will lose anything in any category if you make this deal. Miguel Cabrera compares very well to David Wright. Wright steals a few more bases and is on a better team, but the rest of the deal makes it more than worth it.

Brian Roberts is a better fantasy option than Asdrubal Cabrera and should steal just as many bases with the added bonus of power. I like Asdrubal long term but I think he still has some developing to do despite his hot start. Roberts is a better hitter at this stage in their careers and I like the Baltimore lineup better if everyone stays healthy. Asdrubal's batting average is going to drop in the second half (as pitchers make adjustments) and Roberts will stay pretty consistent.

Heath Bell is a closer right now and one of the better ones, if not the best. The Padres offense is bad enough that Bell will be positioned for a save in just about any game the Padres lead in the ninth. Even a team as bad as the Padres will provide 40-plus save opportunities. David Price is an awsome prospect but he isn't in the majors right now. He also isn't pitching particularly well in triple-A, which is just fine with the Tampa Bay Rays who do not have a natural opening for him right now.

I like Ubaldo Jimenez as a future pitching star. Jimenez has been pitching better lately but his control is not yet at the point where he is trustworthy with a potential championship on the line. Despite his recent hamstring injury, I still prefer Erik Bedard. He is pitching very well (discounting his last start) and should help you in every pitching category but saves. If he does a short stint on the disabled list, do not fret just grab the best available middle reliever until he returns.

Zach Duke is pitching very well. The only weakness in Duke is a mediocre strikeout rate. I do think he will continue to pitch very well. Matt Cain is also pitching fairly well, if not as good as Zach Duke. He will always have a better strikeout rate. Cain's control is a little off right now but not so much that he'll harm your team (it's better than Jimenez's) and he should come around.

Mark, I think you win this trade in a huge way. It should be more than worth tearing yourself away from David Wright. Good luck, and let me know how it turns out.

Trade Advice: Shields/Berkman and Jones/Cruz

Hi Jon,

I'm in a mixed 6 team keeper roto league. I'm considering trading James Shields for Lance Berkman. Both of these players will become free agents at the end of this season. Berkman is suffering from some bad luck with his low babip as we all know. Possibly a good buy low situation?

It is important to note that the rest of my staff includes: Webb, Garza, Cain, Harden, Gallardo and Billingsley. I will surely go over my IP limit with 7 starters.

Thanks,
Jason

Hey Jason, in a six team league (assuming normal size rosters) I imagine there is decent talent available on the waiver wire in case of injuries. I love your pitching staff but with Brandon Webb having injury problems and Rich Harden's history of injuries it is important that you have some emergency options. Your staff is excellent and you are correct that if everything goes well you should easily meet most innings limits even without Shields on your roster.

James Shields is an excellent pitcher. He induces groundballs which helps limit the number of homers allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized to their pitchers the importance of pitching to contact and allowing the defense to do its part. This has resulted in a significant drop in strikeouts by the starters. Shields has gone from a K/9 of 7.70 in 2007 to 6.70 in 2008 and just 5.05 thus far in the 2009 season. This is dragging down his fantasy value in 5x5 leagues. In addition, his BABIP is a very low .245 which indicates that a correction could be coming along with a potential jump in earned run average. This is not a pitcher to avoid, but his value looks like it could drop off from previous seasons.
Lance Berkman has started slowly. He suffered from a biceps injury that caused him to miss a few days early this season. This was reported as a minor injury and we haven't heard Berkman complain about it since his return. But he is presently batting .189 with six homeruns. His walk and strikeout rates are both a little higher than usual. His power seems as good as usual. This definitely looks (as Jason suggested) like just bad luck caused by a his pathetic .182 BABIP.

I would make this trade in an instant if I were in Jason's shoes. You probably won't have another chance to get Berkman at a value like this again this season as he is showing signs of breaking out of the slump.

Hi Jon

Great site and valuable insights. Wanted to get your thoughts on a trade offer. I'm strong in steals/runs, but need some power. Another owner has offered me Nelson Cruz in exchange for Adam Jones. While both players are at a peak right now, I'm not quite sold on Nelson maintaining his value through the year.

What do you think?

Thanks
Dan

Thanks for reading Dan. I like both players and I did write ups on them very recently. You can check them out here and here. I have faith that Nelson Cruz can continue to hit at his current power pace. The average could take a dip but I have faith that if healthy he will hit thirty homers this season. I like Adam Jones just as much and I think Jones will be a better player in the long term.

You did not provide too many details about your league but assuming there is not anything strange these two players are pretty equal in my eyes for the 2009 season. In a keeper league I would not part with Adam Jones because I believe his future is brighter. I also do not believe that there is a significant enough power difference between the two that would make this trade worthwhile for you. If you really want to move Jones for a power hitter I would aim much higher.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Trade Jose Reyes for Greinke, Jones, and Hill?

I'm in a 14 team 4 player keeper league that is now in its fifth year. I can't sleep at night with a feeling of buyers remorse after making a trade yesterday. I decided to deal my fantasy God Jose Reyes for Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, and Aaron Hill. I have owned Reyes since his career began but this trade seemed so interesting. Did I do the wrong thing here in getting rid of Reyes for possibly some players who could be over performing now. Honestly I just wanted to hear an outside opinion because I'm getting ripped apart on the boards in my league.

-- Scott

I think you can relax, Scott. I think you made a great deal for yourself. It is always hard when you give up the unquestioned best player in the deal. You are right that Zack Greinke probably will not have an earned run average under 1.00 for the entire season. Adam Jones is unlikely to bat for a .380 average. Aaron Hill may hit 20 homeruns but I would be shocked if he hit the 30-plus for which he is presently on pace. But that is no reason to worry.
Zack Greinke is becoming the ace pitcher he was always projected to be. He should be a Cy Young contender all season. He is striking out better than a batter per inning which is excellent for a starter but only slightly better than the pace has established over the last few seasons. His BABIP is .292 so far which indicates that he hasn't been particularly lucky with balls in play. He induces ground balls so he should limit the damage that flyballs can do as well. FanGraphs has him with an FIP of 1.38 (compare it to ERA if you aren't familiar -- with some luck factors removed) so it is not an illusion, he is in fact pitching like an ace.

Adam Jones has been projected as a potential 30/30 star outfielder by dozens of analysts including me. In addition, Jones was predicted to ready for a breakout entering this season by just about every fantasy writer in the business. He is being more patient at the plate so far with 9.1 percent walk rate compared to a 5.2 percent career rate. His contact rate has improved and swinging at better pitches naturally leads to better numbers. I believe the batting average will come down to the .290-.300 range. But the power? The power is here to stay. I think we're looking at a very real 30/30 ((okay, maybe 30/20) season in the making.

I've always liked Aaron Hill a little more than most. Probably because I drafted him as a minor leaguer in my primary AL-only and he contributed to a championship. Hill is getting lucky at the plate so far. His walk and strikeout rates are right at his career averages. His BABIP is at .388, almost 70 points over his career average. His career high in homeruns is just 17 (hit the year before his injury) but at age 27 he would not be the first player with experience to see a power spike. I doubt he hits 30 homers but a career high in the 20-25 range would not be ridiculous. His average will come closer to his career .289 average. Some might consider this a disappointing analysis but a .290 average with 20-plus homers from second base is not a bad thing.

I have to assume Scott, because he made the deal that he is not concerned with stolen bases because this is the area you will no doubt lose the most. Jose Reyes is in a mini-slump after starting the season fairly hot. This is mostly the result of an unlucky streak. His BABIP is .283, almost 40 points below his 2008 level and 27 points below his career level. I am not at all worried about Reyes' production. Jones will lessen that loss slightly but the big benefit in this trade is in homeruns, Runs, RBI, and adding the (presently anyway) best pitcher in baseball. You should relax Scott, and tell your league mates they can drink out of your championship trophy at the end of the season...after they admit they were wrong.

Trade Advice: B.J. Upton for Nelson Cruz

Hello Jon,

I'm in a mixed 18 team head to head, keeper, points league. I have just been offered BJ Upton for Nelson Cruz. This looks to be a classic buy low, sell high trade but Upton's high stikeouts and .152 avg scare me. Is he healthy and do you think he will turn his season around? Thanks

James in San Diego

This is definitely a tough one, I'm going to assume that there are no salaries to be concerned with here. I do think that B.J. Upton will come around eventually. As Jason Grey of ESPN recently wrote - it takes a while for a batter coming off shoulder surgery to regain his swing. Some batters will take longer than others. And judging by the struggles that other players like Travis Hafner, Shawn Green and Carlos Quentin endured after their surgeries expecting Upton to recover quickly looks like a long shot. Upton was still recovering from the injury when the season started and I believe that he rushed to get back on the field, possibly to his own detriment. This does not mean I would give up on Upton if I owned him (and I do in a few leagues). Upton is striking out a lot right now and appears to be experiencing some bad luck with balls in play (.231 BABIP). I think at some point (possibly after a stint on the disabled list) Upton will not only get it together but explode in production.

But you don't own Upton, you own Nelson Cruz who is playing great right now. I do believe that Nelson Cruz will establish himself as a major league player this season. He is already on pace for 30-plus homers and around 20 steals with about a .280 batting average. I believe Cruz will only get better when Josh Hamilton returns to the lineup and starts to hit. Cruz does have a very high BABIP right now (so his batting average could come down a bit) but he has been maintaining a high BABIP for the last few years in the minors and I believe his normal level is still a pretty high .330 or so.

Everything being equal I believe Upton is capable of putting up better numbers than Cruz. However, I cannot endorse trading Cruz for Upton right now. You just aren't getting enough of a discount in my opinion. If Upton continues to struggle you may get him for even less of a value than Cruz (assuming the owner does not move him to someone else first). I would counter with a lesser but still fairly productive player and see if he bites. Otherwise my advice is to wait a little longer. You may end up without Upton but you also will not have to suffer through the rest of his recovery and adjustment period.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Just A Little Trade Advice

The longer articles I promised last week are still in progress (just becoming very very long). I'm diverting my attention from those articles to offer a little advice. I received an e-mail from a reader, call him Jay. He wanted some advice on a trade. His AL-only team had some strength in pitching but definitely has some holes on offense. He was offered the following deal:

Jay Deals: Cliff Lee $3

Jay Receives: Travis Snider $10, Taylor Teagarden $4, and Joel Zumaya $5

Cliff Lee at $3 is a great deal but at his age I think his future is as a competent, slightly above average major league starter and not a perennial Cy Young contender.

Travis Snider gives the Jay the big bat he needs in the outfield. Although Snider is a rookie he has had no problem making adjustments and should be a top 20 American League outfielder in the very near future.

Taylor Teagarden fills the gapping hole Jay has at catcher. Teagarden should also gain at-bats as Jarrod Saltalamacchia makes much slower adjustments to the major leagues. Teagarden has good power and while he won't win any batting titles should hit for a decent average.

Joel Zumaya is a great pitcher when he's healthy which has not been often. I see him assuming the closer role for the Tigers in the second half of the season. Jay, as you may have guessed could also use some help in the saves department.

The players Jay is receiving should all be very keepable in an AL-only league. They also have great value to rebuilding teams (which I don't think Jay should consider just yet) and will either set him up well for the future or become bait for dumping teams. Either way I think this is a great trade for Jay.

In fact I can't see this trade as bad for Jay unless Lee threatens to win another Cy Young (not happening says my pyschic powers).