Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: New York Yankees

(man, did I mess up on this one...)

The Yankees aren't often a team you to for rookies or young guys. The New York roster is usually filled with superstars like Alex Rodriguez and Randy Johnson. Last year two young players had a huge impact on the Yankees: Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. The one obvious spot where a Yankees prospect could have gotten a huge opportunity was center field but the Yankees filled that hole with yet another superstar, Johnny Damon. There don't appear to be any obvious openings for a youngster to win a starting position or even a rotation spot. The Yankees should however make good use of young players on their bench and in the bullpen. For those of you drafting farm players the Yankee farm system is improving and players like Philip Hughes and Jose Tabata could rise quickly thru the ranks. The depth at AAA and AA is not great but Brian Cashman made moves that should provide reasonable insurance in case of injuries. The players listed below probably won't be fantasy superstars (although the potential is there) but should make solid late round picks or end-game acquisitions.

Andy Phillips:
Phillips probably won't be a great hitter in the majors but he does have power. He's primarily a first baseman but he has spent time at second and third. Right now it looks pretty good that Phillips will play first when Giambi is at DH. Giambi will do his best to avoid too many at-bats as the DH because for some reason he can't focus at the plate when he doesn't also play the field at least thats what the stats tell us. Some have speculated that Bernie Williams will get at-bats at firstbase but I think thats pretty unlikely. Williams will get the majority of DH at-bats and the occassional appearance as a pinch hitter but very little time in the field. Just taking a guess at how much Giambi will be able to play the field suggests to me that Phillips will be good for 200-300 at-bats assuming he doesn't completely suck. In mixed leagues that probably won't be worth much but deep AL-only leagues will probably find the 8-12 homers (if he stays on the roster all year) very useful.

Kevin Thompson:
Will the Yankees carry 11 or 12 pitchers in 2006? I'm hoping that Thompson makes the team either way. Thompson should be the Yankees forth outfielder this year but if the Yankees carry 12 pitchers Joe Torre's warpped sense of loyalty may convince him to carryy Bubba Crosby instead (with 11 pitchers they both make the team). Thompson is younger and a superior hitter to Crosby and a better fielder as well. He can play all three outfield positions. He had 64 extra-base hits between AAA Columbus and AA Trenton in 2005. He also stole 43 bases. Sounds a lot more useful than Bubba Crosby to me and i think the Yankees agree.

Tyler Clippard
and Jose Veras:There isn't room for this pair on the projected 25-man roster. Clippard is a legit Yankee prospect. He throws hard and has decent control. He is a very good strikeout pitcher. Clippard will likely be the first Yankee prospect called up in case of an injury. Jose Veras isn't really a prospect but he was the closer for AAA Oklahoma in 2005 and the closer for Escogido Lions in the Dominican Winter League where he pitched well. He strikesout a lot of batters his main problem is the base on balls but he could fill a hole in a lot of major league bullpens.

Chien-Ming Wang:
Wang made quite an impact on Yankee fans last year and apparently on the Yankee brass as well. The Yankees refused to include Wang in their many different trade discussions this winter but his name came up often. Some forecasters may be frightened off by his extremely low strikout rate in the majors in 2005. I'm not. His strikoue rate has been consistently around 6/9IP in the minors and at times has been higher. My real concern is his lack of experience as a professional. The Yankees and most fans seem to see him as a starter but I think he'd be larger asset in the bullpen. His ability to limit homeruns and get groundballs is perfect for a set-up man. I don't see it happening. The real reason I list him here is to caution against paying too much for him. He should be a decent pitcher but drafting him as if he'll win 20 games in the New York Yankee rotation would be a serious error. Just like everyone else on these lists he's better drafted in the late rounds or bought during the end-game of your auction.

Robinson Cano: I'm conflicted on Cano's potential. I've read enough comparisons to Soriano to be hopeful but I honestly don't see it. Cano hit a lot of doubles last year and since he doesn't really have spectacular speed I have to assume that shows he does have some legit power potential. He doesn't have much in the way of plate discipline but Soriano has greater power and speed to help compensate for his own lack. He also seems resistent to accepting the Yankee (Joe Torre) way of doing things. Robinson Cano has already had a few negative stories written about him. This more than my lack of faith in his potential is why I was one of the few Yankee writers willing to move him for a quality center fielder. Draft Cano looking for a repeat of 2005 and you may be disappointed. I'd expect him to hit around .270/.320/.425 with around ten homeruns. That isn't a terrible prediction for him but the thing to remember is he's more likely to decline than improve in 2006.

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have dramatically improved their farm system over the last few years. They have a nice collection of position players and a stunning number of superior pitching prospects. 2006 may be the year that the Red Sox actually work the first wave of prospects onto the major league roster. As with the last group of young players we reviewed please understand that the players listed aren't necessarily fantasy studs (although that potential is there). The players listed should be considered potential bargains and great end-game and late round picks. The idea of the strategy is that young players make better roster filler than the more famous veteran players. Most publications will have you avoiding rookies and young players but I think the key is to incorporate them properly into your roster. Okay, here are the young players to watch on the Red Sox:

Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis has been hanging around for a few years without much opportunity to contribute. this should be his break-out year. KY is a master at drawing walks. He has decent power although not nearly what we've come to expect from a first baseman. He hasn't hit for a great average lately either but I believe thats a result of inconsistent at-bats. The common perception may be that Youkilis is destined for another year on the bench because of the recent signing of JT Snow. Snow is an excellent defensive first baseman but is a decent platoon hitter at best. The Red Sox will give Snow at-bats but Youkilis should get around 500 at-bats between appearances at first, third and DH. UPSIDE: .300/100/20/80/2 from the second spot in the order.

Andy Marte:
Its almost embarassing how easily the Red Sox dumped their $40MM flop in Edgar Renteria for one of the best prospects in baseball. There has been speculation that Marte is suffering from a serious elbow injury. This has been denied by bothe the Braves and Red Sox. The injury story is just a desperate search for an explanation of how the Red Sox out manuevered other teams and saved talent while increasing their talent level. The big question is what the Red Sox plan to do with Marte. Since his acquisition he's been included in almost every Red Sox trade rumor. My gut feeling is the Red Sox traded for marte to play him at third base. Mike Lowell is presently considered by most the Red Sox starter. One of these guys will be moved before the season starts. Its certainly possible that Marte could be used in the outfield but he really doesn't have the foot speed necessary for a permanent switch. Marte is going to be an awesome power hitter. he probably isn't much better than a .280 hitter but he shouldn't be terrible at any aspect of hitting. If by chance he ends up sitting on the Red Sox bench snatch him up as your CI or UTL for cheap or with a late round pick. You won't regret it. Its time for Marte to shine and soon.

Jonathan Papelbon:
Papelbon may start the year as a reliever but he won't stay there. Papelbon is too good a pitcher to waste in a middle relief role. He'll likely be priced as a middle reliever but you should draft him as a starter and a good one. He's been compared to Roger Clemens and while that may be overstating things he will be really good. He should add 150 to 200 strikeouts depending on his role. I see him developing as a solid innings eater who provides strikeouts and wins as long as he stays on a good hitting team like the Red Sox.

Jon Lester: Lester will likely start at AAA but he's even better than Papelbon. Lester is a number one type starter and i don't say that lightly. He's a powerful lefty starter who gets strikeouts and allows few hits. If you can find a way to roster him you should. I think he'll end up just as good as Felix Hernandez who I consider to be the best pitching prospect to come along in decades. Roster Lester any way you can and you won't regret it.

Look for a review of the D'Backs and Yankee young players very very soon.

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: St. Louis Cardinals

The players in these reports are not necessarily rookie of the year candidates or even potential fantasy stars. The players I'm going thru in these team reports willbe younger players that should have a role in 2006 and make potentially great end game or late round picks. Obviously when we're discussing young players there is always the potential for much more and thats why these reports (which should be daily, hopefully) will focus on the young role players rather than older ones who are more likely to be hurt or decline rapidly. You should clearly understand that this particular element of strategy does not suggest you should take one of these players rather than someone like Shawn Green but rather that one of these players can boost the potential of your end-game better than say an Al Leiter or Steve Finley. I guarantee you that almost every magazine you pick up will have Steve "No Starting Position" Finley ahead of John Rodriguez. The difference is John Rodriguez is rising as Steve Finley is falling. Packing as much potential as possible into your end-game can be the difference between 9th and 4th or even 1st and 2nd.

Anthony Reyes: Anthony Reyes was drafted the same year as Mark Prior and could very well be the better pitcher. While Prior was a superstar in college, Reyes suffered injury problems which hurt his draft position and delayed his progression through the minors. Now Prior is looking injury prone aand Reyes is ready to emerge as a star in the major leagues. The addittion of Sidney Ponson to the Cardinals' roster may seem to throw a wrench into Reyes' plans but i don't think it will. Reyes even at this point is a far superior pitcher to Ponson. Ponson will serve most likely as a long reliever and spot starter. I see Reyes as a potential Clemens like pitcher. The only thing in his way is a history of injuries he must put behind him.

John Rodriguez: John Rodrigues tore up the Puerto Rican Winter league in limited at-bats. He hit .346 with seven hmers and 28 rbi. Rodriguez is now 28 years old. he spent nine years in the Yankee system where he showed he could hit although he didn't perform any spectacular feats. He signed with the Cardinals as a six-year minor league free-agent and something changed when he hit AAA Memphis. He suddenly showed amazing power. He hit .342/.419/.808 in 120 at-bats. That performance earned him a promotion to the majors when Reggie Sanders got hurt. In 149 sometimes sporadic at-bats Rodriguez didn't embarass himself hitting .295/.382/.436 mostly against right-handed pitching.

Hector Luna: In my opinion Hector Luna would make an excellent $1 MI in NL only leagues in 2006. Luna was a 2003 Rule V Pick from the Cleveland Indians. He has potential that hasn't really been seen in the majors but would be especially nice out of a late round second baseman. Luna hasn't won any jobs yet so you'll have to watch how things develop but even if Luna doesn't win the starting job I can pretty much guarantee he'll see significant time (200-250 at-bats in the least) as a utility player. The Cardinals have brought in several mediocrities to compete for the second base job but none are obvious starters. With full time at-bats I believe Luna could hit .270-.280 with 8-10 homers and 10-15 steals. Its not A-Rod but it has meat on the bones.

Adam Wainwright:
Wainwright is one of the Cardinals few high level prospects. Two years ago Wainwright was considered equal if not superior to Anthony Reyes. Wainwright missed most of the 2004 season due to elbow problems. He avoided surgery and appears mostly recovered. The time out cost him some control which elevated his hit rate and his walk rate. Wainwright had been looking better and better every year before the injury. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in their rotation but Walt Jocketty is smart enough to use his young potentially great pitchers whereever possible. Players like Ponson and Marquis won't be the way for long. The Cardinals are definitely deep enough in their rotation to be able to trade a few starters to improve their lineup and there are hitters available for just that price. If Wainwright starts in the bullpen grab him for a dollar or two and be confident you got a steal.

Player Profile: Mark Prior


Fantasy Impact:
When healthy Mark Prior is a good pitcher. He hasn't been nearly as good as we all expected but that potential is still there. However, before Prior can reach that potential he has to learn to stay on the field. I'm not sure if its Prior's motion, Dusty Baker's abuse or just bad luck which is keeping Prior off the field but it certainly seems that the Cubs are almost done waiting for him to turn into the ace they thought they had cheaply. In a draft I wouldn't pay anything close to full price for Prior and unfortunately (if you want him) thats what you'll have to pay as Prior is stillvery very popular with the fantasy crowds.

Expect and Pay for no better than:

150 IP / 3.50 era/ 1.20 whip/ 12-12 record (remember the Cubs stink)

Background:
Prior grew up in San Diego and was a fan of the Giants and Padres. When he started pitchers he modeled himself after Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. He bcame a major star while still with the University of Southern California. He pitched for Team USA. He was drafted #2 overall by the Cubs after the twins elected to pick Joe Mauer. He recieved $10.5 million to sign with the Cubs. Prior is a disciple of Tom House and constantly works to refine his mechanics.

Year Team G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2002 CHC 19 19 6 6 0 1 0 116.2 98 45 43 14 38 147 3.32 1.17 .226
2003 CHC 30 30 18 6 0 3 1 211.1 183 67 57 15 50 245 2.43 1.10 .231
2004 CHC 21 21 6 4 0 0 0 118.2 112 53 53 14 48 139 4.02 1.35 .251
2005 CHC 27 27 11 7 0 1 0 166.2 143 73 68 25 59 188 3.67 1.21 .227
Career 97 97 41 23 0 5 1 613.1 536 238 221 68 195 719 3.24 1.19 .233

Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball's Lunatic Fringe

fantasyland

Most of the books you'll read about on this site will be more of the annual and reference guide types. Fantasyland is a book I'm really looking forward to buying. Rather than write about how good I think it is before actually reading it, I'm going to show you some clips of the reviews I've found and the places you'll find them.

Netshrine.com:

As a sportswriter, Sam Walker has the access that most fantasy team owners can only dream about – in that he has a direct connection to players, scouts, coaches and general managers. As such, in the book, there are many remarkable stories involving Walker’s roto-related exchanges with current major league baseball participants such as Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Guillen, David Oritz, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Miguel Batista, Mark Shapiro, Jim Beattie, Theo Epstein, Dave Littlefield, Billy Beane, Kenny Williams, Lou Piniella, Alan Trammel, and Mike Scioscia – just to name a few (from a list of numerous personalities).

Imagine talking then Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella into using B.J. Upton as a Designated Hitter because he’s on your rotisserie team and you need the At Bats. Walker did it. Imagine e-mailing then Orioles G.M. Jim Beattie to see if Luis Matos was about to lose his full-time job – and getting a fast and honest answer. Walker did that as well. Imagine asking Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz if he would trade himself in exchange for Texas Rangers speedster Alfonso Soriano (because you need steals in the standings) and then having a debate with him over it. Again, Walker did this. Fantasyland is full of entertaining and sometimes startling dealings such as these mentioned here.

Publisher's Weekly:
When Walker, a senior writer for the Wall Street Journal, enters his first fantasy baseball tournament, he aims high: Tout Wars, a competition for guys who make a career out of analyzing stats to find the best Major League hitters and pitchers. He figures that because he can get to the ballparks in his journalistic capacity and talk to the players and coaches, he'll be in a better position to judge the intangibles and pull one over the pure numbers crunchers. But even with the help of a young research assistant and a NASA scientist, things quickly head south. This hilarious diary of the 2004 season includes several encounters with the players Walker has picked; from Jacque Jones's struggle to refute predictions of mediocrity to David Ortiz's razzing Walker for trading him away. Along the way there are mini-profiles of the Tout Wars competition, as well as explorations of the origins of fantasy baseball (predating even the famed Rotisserie League) and the shaky relationship between dedicated statistical analysts and Major League executives. Readers might even pick up a few tips on how to draft their teams this spring, but the real fun is in watching Walker's well-laid plans unravel.

Player Profile: Milton Bradley

Milton At Bat
Fantasy Impact:

Milton Bradley should be the regular right-fielder for the Oakland Athletics this year. He has good not great speed and likes to steal bases even though he isn't very good at it. He has good not quite great plate discipline. He may tend to hit on the low side in batting average but it shouldn't be so low that his counting stats don't make up for it. He has good power that he hasn't fully displayed yet.
Injuries have been a problem but nothing that should be a long term problem. We have yet to see the very best of Milton Bradley. If Bradley can stay on the field by avoiding injuries and suspensions he could put up a career year in Oakland. The Oakland lineup should provide plenty of baserunners to drive in and nice protection in the lineup.
2006 UPSIDE: .290avg / 25 homeruns / 5 stolen bases
Background:
Milton Bradley has battled issues with his attitude since he entered pro-ball in the Expos system. But I think its important to understand exactly what issues Bradley has as opposed to what attitudes he is percieved to have.
Milton Bradley
The robber had just burst into a Safeway supermarket, stuck his gun against Charlina Rector's head and snapped, "B----, gimme the money." Rector, the cashier, folded her arms and stared right back at him. "My momma didn't raise no b----," she said. "Get your own damn money." The man fumbled with the register, took the cash and scrammed.
Charlina Rector is Milton Bradley's mother and her attitude is exactly the attitude her son has which is take no shit from anyone. Read this article about Milton Bradley while he was with the Indians. Believe it or not Milton Bradley has mellowed. He really only has one huge problem remaining: if you poke him, he pokes back. Fans threw bottles at Milton Bradley and he threw them back. Jeff Kent called him for not being on the field and for his style of play. he responded by throwing a bottle (a plastic harmless bottle) back at the feet of fans. He responded to Jeff Kent by announcing things about Jeff Kent that coming from just about any other player would surprise no one. The Media in LA was determined to tear down the DePodesta Dodgers and Bradley was the center piece. If Bradley is left alone he'll prove himself a great baseball player and not too bad a guy.


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2000 MON 42 154 20 34 8 1 2 15 14 32 2 1 .221 .288 .325 .613
2001 MON 67 220 19 49 16 3 1 19 19 62 7 4 .223 .288 .336 .624
2001 CLE 10 18 3 4 1 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 .222 .300 .278 .578
2002 CLE 98 325 48 81 18 3 9 38 32 58 6 3 .249 .317 .406 .723
2003 CLE 101 377 61 121 34 2 10 56 64 73 17 7 .321 .421 .501 .923
2004 LA 141 516 72 138 24 0 19 67 71 123 15 11 .267 .362 .424 .786
2005 LAD 75 283 49 82 14 1 13 38 25 47 6 1 .290 .350 .484 .835
Career 534 1893 272 509 115 10 54 233 227 398 54 28 .269 .350 .426 .776

Player Profile: Gerald Laird

Gerald Laird
Fantasy Impact:
Gerald Laird has been in a lot of the Texas Ranger trade rumors this year for a good reason. The reason? He has the potential to be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. He has a decent idea about how to get on base and has decent power as well. Laird is not Mike Piazza but with the poor hitting at the catching position these days Laird can be very valuable. Last season for Oklahoma Laird had a .310/.380/.562 line. I wouldn't expect an average that high but he can definitely hit. Right now Laird is behind Rod Barajas but with a good spring he could easily snatch the job away. The Rangers want him to win the job and since the Rangers have managed to improve their starting rotation and bullpen without trading him I expect that Laird will indeed win the job.

Background:

Laird has battled injuries (and other players) while progressing towards the majors. He may start this year backing up Rod Barajas who secured himself in the role after Laird was hurt. Buck Showalter us a big fan which can only speed him into the job. In 2004 Showalter thought he might be a potential rookie of the year.

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2003 TEX 19 44 9 12 2 1 1 4 5 11 0 0 .273 .360 .432 .792
2004 TEX 49 147 20 33 6 0 1 16 12 35 0 1 .224 .287 .286 .572
2005 TEX 13 40 7 9 2 0 1 4 2 7 0 0 .225 .262 .350 .612
Career 81 231 36 54 10 1 3 24 19 53 0 1 .234 .297 .325 .622

Player profile: Orlando Hudson - Overwhelming Coolness

Orlando Hudson
Fantasy Impact:
Orlando Hudson is a great baseball player. Orlando Hudson is not a great fantasy pick but he could be a useful one especially now that he is an Arizona Diamondback. Hudson is essentially a .270 hitter with a bit of pop in his bat. He has decent speed but isn't very good at stealing bases. Hudson's right-handed power should be maximized by Arizona's Chase Field Stadium (whatever its called these days). I think that power maxes out at 15 or so homers but I said useful not amazing. A stat line of .275/330/.440 with 10-15 home runs looks very possible even if it is a little optimistic.

Background:
Almost everyone likes Orlando Hudson. You can tell the fans in Toronto like him by how many of them would rather have Hudson than Troy Glaus. The Blue jays got a fantastic deal when they traded Hudson's defense for the bat of Glaus and the chance to get Aaron Hill into their everyday lineup. Hudson is probably the best defensive secondbaseman in baseball right now. He is very very good. The Diamondback pitchers who use their defense should reap benefits The Diamondbacks should have a new fan favorite very soon.

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2002 TOR 54 192 20 53 10 5 4 23 11 27 0 1 .276 .319 .443 .762
2003 TOR 142 474 54 127 21 6 9 57 39 87 5 4 .268 .328 .395 .723
2004 TOR 135 489 73 132 32 7 12 58 51 98 7 3 .270 .341 .438 .779
2005 TOR 131 461 62 125 25 5 10 63 30 65 7 1 .271 .315 .412 .728
Career 462 1616 209 437 88 23 35 201 131 277 19 9 .270 .328 .418 .746

Player Profile: Rondell White

Rondell White


Fantasy Impact:
Rondell White has always had a solid bat. He doesn't take a ton of walks but he usually hits for a high enough average that his obp stays at decent levels. Its always been injuries that have held White back from both baseball and fantasy stardom. In 2005 White hit .313/.348/.489 in 374 at-bats. Comerica Park reduces significantly a players' doubles and homeruns. The Metrodome (Rondell's new home park) also reduces doubles but not as much as Commerica. The Metrodome also slightly boosts homeruns. Given the change in parks and a better chance of staying healthy via the DH role, Rodel White could have a big year. With the addittion of Luis Castillo and a bounce back to more typical numbers by Shannon Stewart alongside the continued improvement of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau White should have plenty of batters to drive in and to drive him home. A year in the .290/.345/.485 range wouldn't surprise me at all. Thirty homeruns wouldn't surprise me either. Because of Rondell Whites injury problems and mediocre totals the last few years he should be available cheaply and late in drafts. Bid that extra dollar or move him up a round or two, he'll be worth it.

Background:

When Rondell White came up with the Montreal Expos great things were expected of him. He was thought to be a future 30/30 player. Instead injuries have consistently kept him from reaching his once considerable potential. Because of injuries his speed is just about gone but he still has considerable power. White just signed a one year deal to act as the DH of the Minnesota Twins. If White makes plate appearance incentives he could make as much as $8.5 million over two years.


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
1993 MON 23 73 9 19 3 1 2 15 7 16 1 2 .260 .321 .411 .732
1994 MON 40 97 16 27 10 1 2 13 9 18 1 1 .278 .358 .464 .822
1995 MON 130 474 87 140 33 4 13 57 41 87 25 5 .295 .356 .464 .820
1996 MON 88 334 35 98 19 4 6 41 22 53 14 6 .293 .340 .428 .768
1997 MON 151 592 84 160 29 5 28 82 31 111 16 8 .270 .316 .478 .794
1998 MON 97 357 54 107 21 2 17 58 30 57 16 7 .300 .363 .513 .875
1999 MON 138 539 83 168 26 6 22 64 32 85 10 6 .312 .359 .505 .863
2000 MON 75 290 52 89 24 0 11 54 28 67 5 1 .307 .370 .503 .873
2000 CHC 19 67 7 22 2 0 2 7 5 12 0 2 .328 .392 .448 .840
2001 CHC 95 323 43 99 19 1 17 50 26 56 1 0 .307 .371 .529 .900
2002 NYY 126 455 59 109 21 0 14 62 25 86 1 2 .240 .288 .378 .666
2003 KC 22 75 13 26 6 1 4 21 6 8 0 0 .347 .400 .613 1.013
2003 SD 115 413 49 115 17 3 18 66 25 71 1 4 .278 .330 .465 .795
2004 DET 121 448 76 121 21 2 19 67 39 77 1 2 .270 .337 .453 .790
2005 DET 97 374 49 117 24 3 12 53 17 48 1 0 .313 .348 .489 .837
Career 1337 4911 716 1417 275 33 187 710 343 852 93 46 .289 .343 .472 .815

Player Profile: Bobby Hill 2B Padres

Bobby Hill


Fantasy Impact:
In my opinion Bobby Hill can still be a star for both MLB and fantasy leagues. He won't hit for an amazing average although his average shouldn't hurt you. He has a very good idea about how to get on base. If the Padres put Hill in the leadoff or second spot in the order he'll start stealing bases again and that is the strength of Bobby Hill. Playing a whole season at leadoff you might get fifty steals from Hill. Spend a dollar on Hill or use your last pick of the draft on him. Not many will be advocating such a move I'm sure but its finally time for Hill to get his shot don't miss out.

Background:
Bobby Hill has had a raw deal the last few years. After being a star in high school and being drafted in the fifth round by the then California Angels. He chose not to sign and went to the University of Miami where he became a huge college star. He was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the second round but didn’t sign (Scott Boras…’nuff said). He played with the Independent Newark Bears where he was incredible. He hit .326 and stole 81 bases. The Cubs drafted him in the second round in 2000 and it was pretty unanimous that Hill wouldn’t need long in the minors. Then he ran into Don Baylor who preferred Delino Deshields and questioned Hill’s attitude. Hill never got another real shot. He was traded to the Pirates and despite spending most of four years in the majors has accumulated only 523 career at-bats. All the while with the Pirates Hill, as an occasional starter and pinch hitter, had a .343obp and sat on the bench behind not one but two infielders (Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson) who are just barely capable of .300obp. Now Hill is finally free of the Pirates thanks to the Padres who will finally give Hill a chance to compete for a job. The bad news is he must compete with top prospect Josh Barfield. Hill has been mediocre with the glove thus far but I expect that with regular playing time that would improve.

Statistics:
Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2002 CHC 59 190 26 48 7 2 4 20 17 42 6 1 .253 .327 .374 .701
2003 CHC 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 .250 .400 .250 .650
2003 PIT 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .333 .500 .333 .833
2004 PIT 126 233 28 62 7 2 2 27 20 39 0 3 .266 .353 .339 .692
2005 PIT 58 93 12 25 6 0 0 11 9 17 0 0 .269 .343 .333 .676
Career 249 523 67 137 20 4 6 58 48 100 6 4 .262 .343 .350 .693



Player Profile: Rocco Baldelli

Rocco Baldelli




Fantasy Impact:
Assuming Rocco Baldelli is back to 100% he should be a solid player for 2006. It is tough to assume he's healthy after the bad luck Baldelli experienced last year. I'm basing my optimism on the large contract the D'Rays gave him after missing the entire 2005 season with a torn ACL and then Tommy John Surgery in July. What worries me most is the possible loss of speed after his injuries. Back to normal I'd feel comfortable predicting a .280/20/80/25 season. He doesn't draw many walks but was making progress on controlling strikeouts before getting hurt. If he can play he'll be the D'Ray centerfielder.

Background:
As Baldelli flashed thru the minors he was often compared to Yankee Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio. He probably should have been the 2003 American League Rookie of the Year. He faced stiff competition from Hideki Matsui and Angel Berroa. Many belive that players coming from the Japanese leagues shouldn't be elidgible for the ROY award. Berroa had a good season but turned out to be a one hit wonder. Despite his injuries the Devil Rays signed Baldelli to a six year $32 million contract.


Statistics:
Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2003 TB 156 637 89 184 32 8 11 78 30 128 27 10 .289 .326 .416 .742
2004 TB 136 518 79 145 27 3 16 74 30 88 17 4 .280 .326 .436 .762
Career 292 1155 168 329 59 11 27 152 60 216 44 14 .285 .326 .425 .751