Wednesday, September 20, 2006

The Numbers Game written for Sportsblurb.com

The Cincinnati Reds were just 1.5 games out of the wild card position when they made the following trade with the Washington Nationals:

OF Austin Kearns

SS Felipe Lopez

RHP Ryan Wagner

For

RHP Gary Majewski

LHP Bill Bray

SS Royce Clayton

INF Brendan Harris

RHP Daryl Thompson

The first reaction of almost every baseball fan on the planet was to ask if Alfonso Soriano was missing from the list of players that the Nationals were sending over. I was flipping to ESPN2 between innings of the Red Sox/ Athletics game and I swear I thought I wasn’t seeing the whole trade on the bottom line. The Reds should have gotten a lot more for their starting right fielder and their starting shortstop. That they threw in a former top closer prospect in Ryan Wagner is just plain ridiculous. The problem is the Reds didn’t accurately read the market value for the players they traded. But as bad as this trade is rightfully considered by most it doesn’t really hurt the playoff chances of the Reds. Seriously, for what they sent to the Nationals they could have had Alfonso Soriano in my opinion. But despite their bad judgment the Reds may have accomplished their goal of improving and preparing for the playoffs.

Austin Kearns is easily replaced by either Ryan Freel or Chris Denorfia. Kearns is still just 26 years old and having his first healthy season in a decade but it doesn’t appear that his bat will ever again be considered the equal of Adam Dunn’s as so many projected years ago. But he was having a solid season for the Reds. Thus far Kearns has been hitting a respectable .272/.352/.489 and fielding his position well. The plan for now seems to be Denorfia in right and Freel continuing as the utility guy. Denorfia has been back and forth between Cincy and AAA Louisville which is never good for the numbers. Denorfia hits for a good average and knows how to get on base. He has a career line of .263 .364/.421in the majors through 2005 and a line of .286/.371/.432 in the minors. He’ll never match the power potential Kearns has displayed but his hustling scrappy style will probably go over well with Reds fans. If Denorfia gets 250 at-bats in the second half of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit close to .300 with 8-10 homers and 8-10 stolen bases. The Reds think of Denorfia as a leadoff hitter and he could score a lot of runs in front of Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

Felipe Lopez has a superior bat to Royce Clayton but Clayton is a far more consistent defender. Clayton hasn’t been a total void with the bat this year and a small jump might be possible in the more hitter friendly GABP. But is the difference in defense worth the exchange of bats? Maybe. Lopez has a .959 FPCT, an RF of 3.98 and a ZR of .785 which compared to Clayton’s .970 FPCT, 4.37 RF and .829 ZR make him look pretty bad. Lopez has a hitting line of .268/.355/.394 and Clayton a line of .269/.315/.348. That isn’t a difference that’ll make you forget the defensive gap. Clayton will play everyday as long as he fields his position and doesn’t completely embarass himself at the plate. But my new favorite mid-season fantasy sleeper may put Clayton on the bench eventually. William Bergolla was one of the Reds top ten prospects in 2005 according to Baseball America. Go ahead and make your favorite joke about the Cincinnati farm system, I’ll wait... Done? Bergolla isn’t any thing amazing with the bat but he is an excellent fielder whose only real flaw in the field is an inability to stay healthy. His bat is probably only slightly better than Clayton’s at best but he makes up for it with vastly better speed. Bergolla led the Reds system three years in a row in stolen bases. He stole 52 bases in 2003 and was caught 18 times. The Reds have wanted to move him to shortstop in the past but his poor health got in the way. If the Brandon Phillips trade hadn’t worked out so well he’d probably be the second baseman right now. If you can stash him away for a buck or two you might find yourself in possession of a cheap source of stolen bases. Bergolla has a career minor league line of .289/.343/.377.

Ryan Wagner has been pretty terrible at AAA this year. There is the very real possibility that he isn’t yet recovered from shoulder surgery. If Wagner was the reliever the Reds were hoping they had two years back they may not have felt pressure to make a trade like this. Gary Majewski is probably an average major league reliever but he has a rubber arm and will take the ball everyday of the week if asked. Majewski will become a key set-up man for the new Reds closer Eddie Guardado. But the key acquisition for the Reds is Bill Bray. Bray was the 13th overall pick in the 2004 draft. He is a for real prospect. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and a low 80’s slider and can get outs effectively with either pitch. After signing he was sent to the Arizona Fall league where he pitched 16 innings and struck out 16 batters. Bray has been projected as a future major league closer and could potentially fill that role this year if Guardado’s injury problems prevent him from pitching effectively. By adding Bray, Majewski and Guardado the Reds bullpen is already leaps and bounds better than what they suffered through in the first half of the season.

In my opinion Wayne Krivsky is attempting to duplicate his success with Brandon Phillips by acquiring Brendan Harris. It isn’t a bad gamble to make. Harris hasn’t really been given the shot he probably deserved. When Harris was with the Cubs I heard him compared to Albert Pujols. Yeah, that’s ridiculous but Harris could still become a decent infielder with some pop in his bat. Picking up guys like Harris is exactly what a team with a thin farm system should do. Hell, they should make a collection of failed, stalled and ignored prospects in AAA. I don’t really expect he’ll play much more for the Reds than he did with the Nationals this year but 2007 is always a possibility. Rich Aurillia can’t hang around forever can he? Daryl Thompson is another shot in the dark. Thompson is a 20-year old pitching prospect that has drawn comparisons to Oil Can Boyd. While he has talent he is presently recovering from a shoulder injury. He also hasn’t advanced past A-ball which makes him hard to project.

The Reds are going to need all of these guys to work out as planned to have any hope of winning the public perception of this trade. That probably won’t happen. But if the Reds make the playoffs and players like Bray, Majewski and Denorfia play key roles then they might be forgiven.

Treasure Hunting written for Sportsblurb.com

Have you ever been broke? Have you ever been so broke that you go searching through the pockets of clothing you haven’t worn in months for forgotten dollar bills? Ever tip over the sofa hoping some loose change might fall out. Ever hit the jackpot doing so? I’ve done all of the above at one time or another. When you desperately need to find a player on the waiver wire, when you pull out your 1993 Baseball America Prospect Guide you’re doing the fantasy equivalent of digging in the cushions. Hey, there’s no shame in it. Finding hidden gold is what treasure hunting is all about isn’t it? This is the nothing to lose version of treasure hunting. These guys are gold for 2007 but passing the canary test in 2006 will require you have patience and nothing to lose.

Rich Hill SP Cubs

Rich Hill has not been impressive in his major league stints thus far. Believe it or not this may be to his benefit. Young pitchers in Chicago tend to get hurt. Yeah, I’m blaming it on Dusty Baker. Here’s the Jon Williams Guarantee, Dusty Baker will not be manager of the Cubs in 2007. If he is I’ll eat Trot Nixon’s nasty old baseball cap. Jim Hendry has announced that Baker will finish the 2006 season. GMs don’t make announcements like that unless the manager is in trouble. Dusty Baker is in trouble. Dusty Baker ruined Kerry Wood and Mark Prior; he deserves to be in trouble. Here’s the advice Baker has for Rich Hill according to mlb.com:

"He just has to pretend he's in the Minor Leagues," Baker said. "Sometimes you have to trick yourself. Just tell yourself it's the same game. You've got better hitters, quality hitters, but it's basically the same."

Rich has been dominating in the minors for a couple of seasons now. Extremely dominate. He is 26 years old now so if he doesn’t dominate in the minors he gets released. But Hill hasn’t been just good enough to keep pitching, he’s been outstanding.

2006 AAA Iowa: 100IP/ 15GS/ 1.80era/ 1.03WHIP/ 1.94BB9/ 1.52HR9/ 12.74K9

2006 MLB CHC: 19.1IP/ 4GS/ 9.31era/ 1.97WHIP/ 6.46BB9/ 1.14HR9/ 7.99K9

He’s done this for two seasons now. His 135K are leading the Pacific Coast League. When Hill is in the majors for some reason he completely changes his attitude towards pitching. In the minors he dares guys to hit his best stuff. In the majors he becomes a nibbler trying to pitch on the edges of the plate. As soon as someone clues him in that it is okay to let it loose in the majors he’s going to have success.

Hill has an unhittable 12-to-6 curveball. That combined with a low 90's fastball that he's learned to control (he attributes it to greater mental focus, the coaches say he cleaned up his delivery - whatever, as long as he has, right?) His change-up is constantly improving. And he's a lefty, which guarantees the opportunity will be there. Like I said he's 26 so the time is now. The Cubs should give Hill the chance to finish the season in the majors. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and the Cubs stink and have nothing to lose. It may take him a few starts to find himself so be patient. I could make you a long list of starters that stunk in their first few outings in the majors.

Shin-SooChoo OF Indians

You can call him Big League Choo. Choo, whom the Indians acquired in the Ben Broussard trade, will start in right field against right-handers. Casey Blake will play first against right-handers. Choo doesn’t have amazing power but he seems to be developing adequate power. Adequate power with his ability to get on base, his good speed and very good base stealing ability should make him a very valuable fantasy player. If he’s available grab him. The Mariners only gave him 18 at-bats in the majors.

2006 AAA Tacoma: 375AB/ 70R/ 121H/ 21dbls/ 3tpls/ 13HR/ 48RBI/ 26SB/ 4CS/ .323/.393/.499

The only downside I can see is his lack of experience. The Indians are another team without much to lose. The team is hoping that Choo will allow them to move Grady Sizemore down a bit in the order. Sizemore owners will hate hearing that as it will likely cut into his stolen base totals. Jhonny Peralta owners can be happy that Mark Shapiro didn’t get his first choice for Broussard, SS Erick Aybar.

My bonus nugget for reading this far is Joe Inglett. The man has no real power or base stealing ability. He’s a destitute man’s version of Wade Boggs. He can hit for average and is pretty fair at getting on base. He has a minor league career line of .303/.379/.419.

2006 AA Akron: 64AB/ 20R/ 33H/ 9dbls/ 3HR/ 9RBI/ 7SB/ 3CS/ 11BB/ 4SO .516/.587/.767

2006 AAA Buffalo: 157AB/ 21R/ 47H/ 7dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 13RBI/ 3SB/ 2CS 13BB/ 24SO

.299/.358/.389

2006 MLB CLE: 46AB/ 8R/ 15H/ 2dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 6RBI/ 1SB/ 0CS/ 4BB/ 8SO .326/.380/.522

The Indians are looking for a spark and Inglett is providing it right now. The Indians see him as a future utility infielder but with Ronnie Belliard nursing his hamstring injury Inglett is getting an opportunity to prove he can handle full-time responsibility.

Last Week Revisited

Last week Mark looked at Stephen Drew and Jason Windsor. Jason Windsor blew his rotation opportunity by allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs in just 2 innings. Windsor was sent back to the minors and replaced on the roster by LHP Randy Keisler. Windsor still has a future but the A’s are in a dog fight for the AL West and they can’t afford to develop pitchers right now.

Stephen Drew is probably making Craig Counsel the Arizona version of Wally Pip. Thus far Drew is hitting .302/.348/.512 in 43 at-bats. If you didn’t pick him up it’s too late now.

Burning Up the Bases written for Sportsblurb.com

Burning Up the Bases

By Jon Williams

08/07/06

Every fantasy baseball owner has a need for speed. Baseball’s base stealers have always been a precious commodity, and they have grown even more precious with the proliferation of the so-called Moneyball mindset. I do think we’re about to see a return to a more exciting brand of baseball. The vast majority of baseball teams – especially the bad ones – seem to annually attempt to mimic the characteristics of the best teams. This year, one of the better teams is without a doubt the New York Mets. And the Mets, as you may know or can guess by my clever lead in, use the stolen base as a key part of their offense.

What you as a fantasy owner must do is spot the stolen base talent being underutilized by teams that might use a similar style of offense in 2007. This week, I’m going to give you the key players on the three teams I can see giving the stolen base a bigger part in their game plans next year. Am I a great guy or what?

A little less running into walls and a little more running on the basepaths would do wonders for Aaron Rowand's fantasy owners...

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Aaron Rowand

2) Michael Bourne

3) Shane Victorino

He has not shown it this season, but Aaron Rowand can steal bases. He is not a blazing fast, Carl Crawford-type, but he has displayed the ability to take bases at a good percentage. The Phillies are almost guaranteed to have a new manager in 2007, and whoever is running the show next year would be wise to use some of the speed he will have on his roster, as well as utilize the base-stealing ability of almost everyone on the projected 2007 Major League roster. If that turns out to indeed be the case, Rowand could easily be a 20/20 guy in 2007.

Michael Bourn is the next home grown Philadelphia star. At the University of Houston, Bourn honed his ability to hit for average, get on base, and steal bases. As the 2003 fourth round pick of the Phillies little has changed. With Bobby Abreu traded to the Yankees, and Pat Burrell rumored to be following him in the off-season, the opportunity will be there for Bourn to claim a spot in the outfield in 2007. Bourn has a batting line of .288/.388/.396 in the minors and would be a very dynamic #2 hitter behind star shortstop Jimmy Rollins and might even push Rollins to the #2 spot. If Bourn makes the team and does what he has shown the ability to do, the Phillies will be a very exciting team to watch.

He may not be as flashy as Michael Bourn, but Shane Victorino has probably already earned a spot on the 2007 major league roster of the Phillies. His .310/.377/.534 showing at Triple-A Scranton has already earned him a call-up to fill the spot vacated by Bobby Abreu. He’s off to a respectable .267/.330/.424 start in 191 Major League at-bats this season. He has only stolen two bases without being caught but could easily steal 20 bases if given the opportunity.

Kansas City Royals

1) Alex Gordon

2) Joey Gathright

3) Esteban German

The Kansas City Royals have a much brighter future than most believe. Their minor league system may not be deep at the moment but they have a few guys that project as the heart of the order for the next decade. Next year, the fantasy baseball magazines will tell you all you need to know about Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, and Justin Huber. But the star of the Kansas City system by far will be third baseman Alex Gordon. The former Nebraska star has been compared to Chipper Jones with his beautiful swing and his projecting to hit for both power and average. Gordon already shows solid plate discipline, and many believe he should be in the Majors already. As of this writing, he is at Double-A Wichita, batting .316/.416/.559 with 20 home runs in just 383 at-bats. I know what you’re wondering, though – can he steal bases? He presently has 20 stolen bases and has been caught just three times. Gordon is the infield version of Carlos Beltran – yes, he is really that good.

Joey Gathright is not a great hitter; he can, however, use his speed and slap-hitting ability to hit for a respectable average, as he has shown he can do in the minors. He’s hit .316 in over 1,200 minor league at-bats with a .390 on-base percentage. Most importantly, the man is blazing fast. He has stolen 165 bases and been caught stealing 50 times in his Minor League career. That’s just over 40 stolen bases for every season spent in the minors, and he has made spent some time in the Majors just wasting away on the bench or he might have stolen even more.

I really hope that the Royals replace manager Bob Boone, as he has made one of the best performers on his team almost irrelevant. This season, 26-year-old Esteban German has batted .321/.430/.378, but cannot seem to get at-bats ahead of 36-year-old Mark Grudzielanek (.286/.325/.394 in 388 at-bats). A team like the Royals needs to give at-bats to the players that can play a part in the future of the team, rather than ancient mediocrities that will be here on the roster for one season at the most. German has the speed and the know-how to steal 30 to 40 bases. All he needs is an opportunity.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Chris Duffy

2) Nate McLouth

3) Jason Bay

Chris Duffy was supposed to be the starting center fielder for the Pirates in 2006. He lost the opportunity by hitting just .230/.288/.344 in 61 spring training at-bats. Duffy did not respond well to the May demotion and refused the assignment for almost a month. He did finally report and got to work on the things lacking in his game. At Triple-A Indianapolis, Duffy has been pretty impressive in 116 at-bats with a .349/.415/.509 batting line with 13 stolen bases and he has been caught just three times. Duffy was recalled after the Craig Wilson trade and has not done much yet, but the Pirates seem to have more faith this time around. Duffy has a career minor league line of .299/.354/.415; if he could come close to that in the Majors, 25-30 stolen bases a season is a distinct possibility.

Nate McLouth is similar to Duffy, but has better speed, slightly better power, and is two years younger at just 24-years-old. McLouth has spent the entire 2006 season in the Majors and should be in line for the starting right field job in 2007 when Jeromy Burnitz finally departs. For the season, McLouth is batting just .228/.292/.360 in a sporadic 250 at-bats as an occasional starter and defensive replacement. McLouth still has the spark that won him most exciting player votes in the minors. In a full season of at-bats, McLouth could steal 40 bases by managing just a league average on-base percentage.

He will not come cheap but Jason Bay is a great base stealer. In the Majors, Bay has attempted just 36 steals and been caught just eight times. In the Minors, Bay was a 30-40 steal guy. That ability is still there; it just needs to be tapped. By increasing his stolen base attempts, Bay could become the most valuable fantasy outfielder in almost any style league. For the Pirates, something as simple as a change in managerial philosophy could change them from one of the more boring offensive teams in the league to one of the most exciting. The Pirates want desperately to be the Oakland Athletics but they just don’t have the personnel and do not seem to grasp how to acquire it. I’m sure Billy Beane wouldn’t share this with the Pirates but I will – the secret of Moneyball was not acquiring on-base specialists; it was making the best use of the players available to you. The Pirates have speedy defensive slap hitters; design the offense around them and it might actually work for both the Pirates and fantasy owners everywhere.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

No License Is Required to Run a Fantasy League

By ALAN SCHWARZ
Published: August 9, 2006

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, the Internet arm of Major League Baseball, had a major setback yesterday in its attempt to regulate the growing fantasy baseball industry when a federal judge ruled that companies do not need licenses to operate such leagues.

A St. Louis company that runs fantasy leagues, CBC Distribution and Marketing Inc., had sued Major League Baseball Advanced Media, saying that the players’ names and performance statistics were in the public domain.

Four weeks before the trial was set to begin, United States District Court Judge Mary Ann Medler upheld CBC’s argument in a 49-page summary judgment. She rejected baseball’s claim that the use of the players’ names in commercial fantasy leagues violated their rights of publicity. She also ruled that even if CBC’s repetition of purely factual information had violated those rights, it was was trumped by the United States Constitution.

“The players’ right of publicity,” she wrote, “must give way to CBC’s First Amendment right to freedom of expression.”

According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, more than 15 million people spend about $1.5 billion annually to play fantasy sports — games in which fans draft and run their own teams of real-life players. Virtually all of them use an outside service like CBC to keep track of rosters, players’ statistics, trades and more.

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, in addition to owning the electronic rights to team logos and video clips, bought the Internet and wireless rights to the players’ images and names from the Major League Baseball Players Association in January 2005 for $50 million. It licenses large content packages to companies like Yahoo and CBS Sportsline for deals worth approximately $2 million apiece and had sought to regulate the use of players’ names and personas by the hundreds of smaller operations like CBC that use only names and statistics.

“Using basic factual information — as distinguished from using a player’s name to endorse a product — does not violate the right of publicity,” said Rudy Telscher, a lawyer representing CBC. “This was just baseball trying — and I don’t blame them — to seize this growing area and make money on it.”

Officials from Major League Baseball Advanced Media could not be reached yesterday for comment on whether the company would appeal to the Eighth Circuit Court, a process that would take about another year. Jim Gallagher, a baseball spokesman, told The Associated Press, “We need to talk to our partners, the Major League Baseball Players Association, before we have anything more to say.”

This Week In Fantasy Sports (Football and Baseball)

Anthony Reyes Baseball Card

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6652

John Turvey of Fanball.com discusses the joys and pains of preparing for Fantasy Football Season. Then John explores what happens when you give your target audience an early chance to explore your findings.

They flipped to the appropriate page, found my team (seventh pick in a 10-team draft) and immediately called into question my selection of Domanick Davis in round two (14th overall).

They pointed out that his line blows—which is true for
pass-blocking, I countered, but they effectively employ the same zone-blocking scheme Gary Kubiak used in Denver and have produced solid numbers for Dom in the past.

They noted that he's been nicked up throughout his career—again, a valid concern, but one I believe can be insured by grabbing his handcuff (like Davis owners did with Jonathan Wells did last year).

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6629

Court E. Mann of Fantasy Football Weekly discusses the football annuals and the disappearance of the Fantasy Football Bust.


At Fanball, we publish three preseason magazines under our Fantasy Football Weekly moniker in

June, July, and August. In both the June Annual and the August Draft Issue, we devote an entire feature to 15 reliable fantasy starters from the previous season that we slap the Bust label on. In the July Just Cheat Sheets issue, each of our editors is forced to choose one prominent name at each position as their Bust, and that player must be ranked in the top 15 at that position.

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6615

Jay Powell shares his semi-unique draft strategies. I think he may be on to something.

In the third round, I added wide receiver Roy Williams, whom I expect to thrive in the offense that Mike Martz is installing in Motown. At the time I picked Williams, the list of available running backs included Warrick Dunn, Reuben Droughns, and Carnell Williams. Fans of the "Do the Opposite" approach should also know that Chargers tight end Antonio Gates was also available.

http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.6664

The guys at Fanball.com have been busy with team previews. Each one includes Notable Offseason Moves, Position Battles and Keep an Eye On blurbs. Check them out starting with this one on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Griffin has more name value, but Dee Brown appears to have the inside track to earning the No. 2 spot on the depth chart should Holmes retire. Brown has impressed the coaches during the offseason workouts and will challenge Griffin for the role during training camp. The Chiefs signed Kyle Turley to compete with Jordan Black for the starting right tackle job. Turley has battled back problems over the last few seasons. He also allegedly threatened to kill former Rams head coach Mike Martz, so Edwards might want to consider entering the witness protection program if he has to cut Turley this summer.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/tips.php

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2006/tips_projecting_wins.php

Bob Hoyng tries his hand at creating a projection system for WHIP. I haven’t played with it yet but he could have something useful here.

My main thought here (looking at this situation from a fantasy baseball manager’s point of view) was to use this information to find pitchers whose bad luck over the last few years had deflated their value to the point where they were bargains. To do this I would need one formula to project ERA, and another formula to project WHIP. I could then take a pitcher’s 3 year averages in the component numbers (BB, K, HR and IP) and find the guys that showed a large variance between actual, and projected ERA/WHIP both, to identify the over and undervalued pitchers.

Bob then goes on to predicting wins for pitchers. I’ve actually tried this and it isn’t easy. Bob has a grasp on the concept, give it a look and decide if it works for you.

Projecting the number of games a team is going to win during the course of the upcoming year is definitely not to the point that it’s an exact science. We can try to use tools such as the expected lineup’s Runs Created/27 outs or other such methods to project the runs the team will score. We can look at what type of era we expect the team to put up as a whole as well, and apply the Pythagorean Expectation formula to try and estimate the team’s wins. It’s kind of like predicting the weather - it may not be 100% but it’s the best that we’ve got.

My interest in this article is in explaining how we can extend this approach to predicting pitchers. And more importantly to try and project the wins for ALL pitchers - not just starting pitchers. In order to determine the winning percentage for a team from the Pythagorean Expectation formula we need two numbers - runs scored and runs against. In projecting the wins for pitchers we need one extra number - the number of opportunities (decisions) that we expect the pitcher to receive. While there can certainly be progress made from the point that this article will take us, the general approach that I will lay out here is a good start to estimating the number of decisions any pitcher will receive. Before we get into the detailed examination of predicting opportunities though, let’s take a look at the first two numbers - runs scored and runs agains

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/sleepers.php

Adam Lewis has Fantasy Baseball Cafe’s Sleeper of the Week. He believes this week’s sleeper could very well end the year in a closer role. Names have been redacted for entertainment purposes.

At the moment, ****** is the ****** closer, but look for ****** to take it from him in the second half. It has been said that ****** gets the ugliest saves of any closer. ****** never seems to have a 1-2-3 inning, nor does he have that ‘out’ pitch closers need. ****** is also now suffering from elbow tendonitis, which sometimes is hard to shake. With ****** being injured, and journeymen and castoffs in the bullpen, look for ****** to get his fair share of opportunities. The ****** have the worst bullpen in the league, so ****** will get his chances to rise above. For now, keep an eye on the closing situation and keep your eyes on this rising 22 year old hurler.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlIGHpWY0vmOeCiXC.dV1KkRvLYF?slug=jp-mauer062606&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Jeff Passan tells us why it’s good to be Joe Mauer.

Though being good might give Mauer the utmost pleasure. Because it proves, once and for all, that the Twins weren't erring solely on the side of spendthrifts when they chose Mauer with the first pick ahead of Mark Prior, and that Mauer wasn't crazy for leaving behind a scholarship to play quarterback at Florida State to sign with the Twins.

http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=be-noise_062206&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&league=fantasy/nfl

Brad Evans explains why its all about the money in the NFL and gives us a few names we can count on to provide a performance worth major ducats.

For fantasy football aficionados, knowing who's playing for a big payday is vital info. For example, last year Ladanian Tomlinson was a unanimous No. 1 pick for many owners. However, LT drafters were kicking themselves by season's end for not picking Shaun Alexander. The popular second fiddle bulldozed his way to the top of the rankings, totaling a staggering 27 rushing touchdowns. His record-breaking campaign and consistency – he scored at least once in 14 of 16 games and had 11 100-yard rushing performances – were a cornerstone on many championship rosters. Why did Alexander reach unprecedented heights? He was looking to cash in.

http://rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=22869

Aaron Gleeman gives us the scoop on a trade as its about to happen and some tidbits from around baseball.

Speaking of rumors, things appear to be heating up on the Miguel Tejada front. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Tejada may have been linked to Jason Grimsley’s now-infamous affidavit. Grimsley and Tejada played together for parts of two seasons in Baltimore, so the media attention on the story is sure to explode within the next couple days.

Meanwhile, the newspaper also quoted sources within the Orioles organization as saying that the team may be “ready to deal their starting shortstop before the July 31 trade deadline.” Team officials indicated last week that they were “unlikely” to deal Tejada, but even then said they’d listen to offers.

http://www.baseballnotebook.com/essay.asp?esource=e_062106.asp&topt=Trading%20-%20The%20Art%20of%20Selling%20Low

David Luciani of Baseball Notebook expounds on the Art of Selling Low. Its interesting stuff, as always the guys at Baseball Notebook go a little bit against the grain to get at the truth of things.

Everyone knows the stock trading concept that dictates that we should "buy low, sell high." It makes sense and there's no need to prove here that the trader who successfully does this, in stocks or in fantasy baseball, will be successful. When fantasy baseball was relatively new, or at least spreading in popularity around North America, some of the early official Rotisserie materials rightly advocated the concept of "trade them while they're hot and get them while they're not." The idea which helped many a fantasy owner in the mid 1980s and even into the early 1990s was that certain players have a track record and if they start slow, they can easily be acquired. Conversely, many players are notoriously slow starters and the intelligent fantasy GM can go out and pick them up relatively cheap.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/06/war_stories.php

Bob Klapisch explains why journalists and teams just can’t get along any longer. With the Jay Mariotti and Ozzie Guillen story raging maybe Bob can come up with a solution better than sensitivity training. While you’re at it check out my Sportsblurb.com article on that very topic.

Younger reporters who sometimes complain that today's stars, like Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran, have nothing interesting to say, obviously don't know what it's like when the players declare war on the press.

Still, the newcomers have a point about the thick wall of clichés. Where did all this new millennium caution come from? I asked Jeter that very question recently, wondering why he affects that Dawn of the Dead expression whenever the camera goes on. His answer was surprisingly candid.

"It's you guys," Jeter said, nodding at a group of reporters standing around the clubhouse. "Because any time you do something you guys write about it, absolutely anything. You can't really be as loose as you want to be."

http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=NFL&storyid=22866

Gregg Rosenthal examines the NFL East and North and declares that the sleeping Lions are being roused by Mike Martz and his new offense.

Jon Kitna has reportedly opened up a big lead in the battle to be the team’s starting quarterback. Dan Orlovsky may be passing Josh McCown to be the backup. … The running back depth chart is odd after Kevin Jones. Arlen Harris is reportedly second, ahead of mainstays Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner. I try not to get carried away with minicamp depth charts, if they even exist. Look for Bryson and rookie Brian Calhoun to have roles behind Kevin Jones once the season starts. For now, Jones owners may want to wait to handcuff him. Martz wants Jones to play on third downs and near the goal line, which could make him a great RB2.

http://longgandhi.com/061706.html

Long Gandhi looks at the future of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation.

Anyway, I thought I had written about a month ago that I didn't think Janssen would be long for the Blue Jay rotation because he didn't fool hitters with his stuff. More precisely, that hitters didn't swing and miss. He got strikes primarily by getting fouls and calls. That works in the short term, but eventually hitters will get his timing and start hitting him... hard. Just looking at his last two outings, against the Orioles and Marlins of all teams, that appears to be happening now. Put another way, he's given up at least 4 earned runs in five of eleven starts. Take out his two starts against the Angels, which came fairly early in his major league tenure, and his ERA is 6.24 and WHIP is 1.567. How's his style gonna play against the division rival Yankees and Red Sox against whom he's yet to face? My guess is not well. Sure, his K/BB rate is nice, but so was Josh Towers and we see how well that has turned out. Casey Janssen's time in the Blue Jay rotation will be coming to a close very soon.

http://www.rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=gordon&name=F20060626135043

Jeff Gordon goes deep into This Week In Baseball.

Russ Ortiz, SP, Orioles: ... Baltimore hopes to turn Ortiz around after his washout in Arizona. As a D'Back, Ortiz was 5-11 with a 6.89 ERA in 2005 and 0-5 with a 7.54 ERA this season. It doesn't get much worse than that.

But he had a fruitful working relationship with Leo Mazzone in Atlanta, so the O's figure this was worth a shot. "I think Leo is always up for a challenge," Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo said. "He's usually up for getting someone back on track. It seems like his track record is he's able to do that."

http://www.sportsblurb.com/baseball/stock.asp

My article for Sportsblurb.com.

Guillen might have a point if Mariotti was a beat writer, but he is not. Mariotti is a columnist that has the job we all wish we did. He goes to the NBA finals and flies from there to the next big event and from there to the next. Mariotti, in a rather wussy fashion, claims that the Chicago White Sox clubhouse is too dangerous a place for him to risk showing up. Of course, I am sure if reporters were being beat up after games we would have heard about it by now.

EA Sports Head Coach - the Commercial

EA Head Coach Game


Anyone out there play video games? I'm interested in this one. Thanks to Joe Bryant of FantasyFootballGuys for pointing out the link in his free newsletter.

A Fantasy Baseball Update

Justin Huber


Casey Kotchman who has been putting a hurting on some fantasy teams this year revealed last night that he's been dealing with the effects of mononucleosis for the last seven months. The disease can sap your strength and I guess thats what Casey wants us to blame for his horrible stats thus far. I'm not actually buying it but if it helps you deal him to a rebuilding team its good information.

Richie Sexson is another first baseman off to an awful start. I have no doubt Sexson will come around but it'll have to wait until he recovers from the bruised right heel and slight ankle sprain he suffered in Wednesday's game. He shouldn't miss too much time with the problem but he'll be sitting on the bench and creating a hole in your lineup for a few days, which might be a welcome change from his daily ofers.

The world of closers is shifting once again. The latest? Eddie Guardado has been at least temporarily removed from his closer position. Mike Hargrove has promised a closer by committee situation but look for J.J. Putz to get the bulk of the chances. Rafael Soriano is also likely to win a few. Soriano is probably the better long term bet based purely on talent but if Putz continues to pitch well in the closer role he might just hold it.

Royals Designated Hitter Mike Sweeney is hitting the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back. Supposedly it isn't the same disk that ruined last season (as if that mattered). He could be gone a while, I'm guessing at least six weeks but its hard to tell with Sweeney. The good news for fantasy owners and Royals fans alike is the call up of Justin Huber. Huber will be just the first in a trio of call-ups that should dramatically change the fortunes of the Royals despite the inept managing of Allard Baird. Huber is pretty similar to a younger and healthy Mike Sweeney. You should pick him up if you have a place for him or if you just lost Sweeney.

The Brewers have lost starter Tomo Ohka for at least a month and possibly the season with a tear in his rotator cuff. The Brew Crew is expected to call up Dana Eveland who has been dominating AAA. He has a .75 era in six starts. Eveland seems ready and probably should have made the team out of spring training but hey, things happen. If Eveland gets the call you want him.