Nook Logan = Cheap Steals

Nook Logan isn't a great hitter but he has already been named the starting center fielder for the Washington Nationals. In his career he has batted .270/.319/.347 in 545 at-bats. Most of those at-bats were accumulated as a part-time player but he still managed to steal 33 bases while being caught just nine times. He could easily steal 40-50 in a full-time role as in the minors he had season totals of 22, 53, 67, 55, 37 and 46.

Take him late in your drafts or auctions and you could have a major bargain on your hands.

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Darin Erstad - Major Sleeper?

Darin Erstad is a player that any serious baseball fan knows. Erstad is the guy that might be a decent player if he could only stay on the field. His heart is huge but his tendency to run into walls and such has kept him from having an impact on the field for the majority of the last few seasons. Kenny Williams brought him into the White Sox fold this winter when the Los Angeles Angels decided not to offer him a contract.

One of the things I preach that most so-called experts counsel against is drafting the injury prone guys while they are healthy. A guy like Erstad who in a full season of at-bats could put up stats worth anywhere from $20 to $30 will be available at a huge discount. From all reports Erstad is one hundred percent healthy as spring training starts. At present he is projected to be the fourth outfielder for the White Sox behind Scott Podsednik, who has injury issues of his own as well as a slipping performance level, and Brian Anderson, a young player who was very disappointing in 2006. I'm betting that in most AL-only leagues Erstad will be available at less than ten bucks. At that price you should grab him as your fourth or fifth outfielder.
Ozzie Guillen has vowed to get back to Ozzieball this season. A big part of Ozzie's game is the stolen base. Erstad coming off the bench for say 220 at-bats could grab you 10-15 stolen bases, hit for a decent average and maybe toss in a few homers to boot. For a single digit price I'd take that in two seconds. The extra-added bonus is at less than ten bucks he should be fairly replaceable even in deep leagues.

Grab Erstad cheap or in the late rounds of your draft. I don't think you'll regret it.


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Chris Ray: A Fluke?

Chris Ray has a projected 54 BPV as of this writing on the Baseball HQ website. Such a low projection may cause HQ subscribers to greatly downgrade him.

In an article that will appear on this site soon I discuss some reasons you may not win as much as you might. One of those reasons is an over reliance on a particular source. The point being that many fantasy owners choose to adopt the philosophies pf a particular book or website and just take their word for things. On Baseball HQ this week Doug Dennis in an article called Bullpen Buyers Guide (premium) he lumps Baltimore Orioles reliever Chris Ray into a group labeled fluke alongside names like Joey Devine, David Weathers, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski and Seth McClung. Without getting into the others on the list I want to take a look at Chris Ray and show you how the blind adaptation of a site's philosophies can cause you to lose out on valuable players.

Right off the bat I want to share that I have subscribed to Baseball HQ for years and have spent much money on their products. I do not think you can find a more professional or respected source for fantasy related information. But they do have some flaws that can leave holes in your game but therefore also avenues to exploit if you have subcribers in your league.

Chris Ray is the 25 year-old closer for the Baltimore Orioles. Ray may not have a long resume but has been an extremely solid reliever throughout his professional career. The 2006 season began with Ray installed as the closer for the Orioles and with the exception of a brief blip mid-season He was stellar for the entire season and collected the following stats: 66 IP, 45 hits, 27 walks and 51 strikeouts. Now, what HQ doesn't like is his hit-rate. HQ hates anything that they can't explain statistically and since their present doctrine dictates that BABIP is something that a pitcher cannot control any pitcher who performs far better than average is labeled a fluke. Barry Zito is downgraded on their site for the same reason. But if you look at Ray's career stats you'll see that he has always had the SKILL to limit BABIP. I'm not slamming HQ for this way of rating players. They nail far more players than they miss but nevertheless this represents a hole in the HQ rankings that can be exploited in HQ heavy leagues. Look for players with such a track record and you will find fantasy baseball bargains.

Players You Should Know: Ross Ohlendorf

Ross Ohlendorf is a right-handed pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has been rumored to be in the Randy Johnson trade that the Yankees are attempting to make. If that happens everyone will know him relatively soon but he won't be in most of the magazines and guides that are coming out at the end of this month. Last year for Double-A Tennessee Ohlendorf pitched 177.2 innings with a 9.12 H9, 0.66 HR9, 1.47 BB9 and 6.33 K9. His best pitch is a hard sinker that resembles that of Yankees' pitcher Chien-Ming Wang. If he remains with the D'backs he has a good chance of making the team out of spring training. With the Yankees he would probably be lucky to compete for a bullpen spot to start the season.

Some reading on Ohlendorf you may enjoy:

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2004/10/14/sports/11084.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Ross-Ohlendorf.shtml

http://www.towntopics.com/jul2606/sports1.html

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060912 />

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Pedro Update

MLB.com/AP/Baseball Think Factory:

New York Mets pitcher Pedro Martinez is recovering well from rotator
cuff surgery, but the ace right-hander still doesn’t plan to return to
the mound until July or August.
“The progress has been excellent,” said Martinez, who joined Vlad
Guerrero in a charity softball game. “The problem has to do with the
calcification of the bone that was broken with the tear and that had to
be operated on.
“You have to let it run its course, so we’re aiming for July or August
as the return date.” ...
“I don’t have problems anymore with my reach or flexibility, and so far
everything is going very well,” he said.
As part of his offseason regimen, Martinez said he is bulking up. “I’ve
put on about 10 pounds of muscle, because that’s one of our
strategies,” he said.


Pedro makes a good low dollar buy in keeper leagues this season.

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Ken Griffey Hurt

According to Baseball Digest:

The Reds are reporting that Ken Griffey Jr. has suffered a broken left hand in an accident at home. He will remain in a hard cast until he is re-examined in approximately 3 weeks.

There's no word if this injury is related to Griffey's reaction to the Reds trading for Jeff Conine.

Durazo Signs

Durazo is tearing it up in the Mexican Winter League:

Through Wednesday, Durazo, 31, was batting .345 with 17 homers, 51 RBIs, a .454
on-base percentage and a .641 slugging percentage through 57 games with
Hermasillo.

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061221 />

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