Thanksgiving Hot Stove

This is not shaping up as a good off-season for my fantasy teams. Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) was a big part of my 13 team NL-only league. Holliday, of course, was dealt to the American League dwelling Oakland Athletics. That same team included Chase Utley (2B, PHI), about to have surgery on his hip. The best-case scenario for Utley seems to be the shaving of a few bone spurs and a rehab process that would keep him inactive for most of Sprint Training. The worst case would involve serious repairs and a prayer for a return in July. In addition, as you have probably guessed, that same NL-only squad features Chad Billingsley (RHP, LAD), who slipped on some ice and broke his fibula on Friday. Billingsley should be ready for the start of Spring Training but my plans to trade him are crumbling. I hope that your off-season is going better than mine is.

Hot Stove Report

The Braves Claim a LOOGY

The Atlanta Braves claimed Eric O'Flaherty (LHP, ATL) off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. O'Flaherty has some potential as a bullpen lefty. He is a groundball specialist who has shown strikeout potential in the minors but has fooled no one in his brief stints in the majors. He will not be in the closer mix so his fantasy value is zero (if not less than that).

The Phillies Trade Tools for Power

The Phillies traded their most advanced outfield prospect, Greg Golson (OF, PHI), for John Mayberry Jr. (OF, TEX), the Rangers power hitting prospect. Golson has all of the baseball tools. Unfortunately, he has demonstrated few of the baseball skills the Phillies expected their former first round pick to develop, especially plate discipline. It is worth noting that the Rangers have shown a remarkable ability to turn disappointing outfield prospects into productive major leaguers the last few years. Golson's ability to play center field gives him a chance to make the Rangers as a reserve if they trade Marlon Byrd (OF, TEX) as rumored. Golson should be watched carefully in Spring Training.

John Mayberry has gone backwards as a prospect. He has traded walks for a more aggressive approach at the plate, which has resulted in more homeruns but not much else of value. The Phillies do need a power hitting left fielder if Pat Burrell (OF, FA) leaves via free agency. This is a situation worth watching. If the Phillies are unable to sign a big name outfielder Mayberry could become a serious option.

The Red Sox Strengthen their Bullpen

The Red Sox traded Coco Crisp (OF, KC) to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez (RHP, BOS). Ramirez is a good relief pitcher. If Ramirez improved his walk-rate (3.89 in 2008) he could be a potential closer. He has held opponents to a .235 batting average in his career and just .220 in 2008. He also collects about a strikeout per inning. The seventh and eight innings were a problem at times for the Red Sox last season, Ramirez shores that up nicely. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners, Ramirez is probably third or fourth in line for saves behind Jon Papelbon (RHP, BOS).

The Royals Acquire Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp had some horrible luck while in Boston. He broke his wrist, suffered a separate hand injury amid a series of other minor but aggravating maladies, and lost his job to a much-hyped prospect. Here is an early Big Fat Claim: Coco Crisp will regain all of the power he seemed to lose as a Red Sox with the Royals. Barring any bad news, he will be coming into this season completely healthy, with a full time job for the first time in three years.

Billy Beane Signs a Reliever

The Oakland Athletics signed Chris Schroder (RHP, OAK) formerly of the Washington Nationals to a one-year contract. Schroder has little chance of making the major league team but Billy Beane sees something in him so this transaction is worth noting. What Beane sees is a mystery to me. He does not get groundballs, he walks too many batters, and he allows too many homeruns. Gasp! Perhaps Billy Beane signed a player based on his scouting report rather than his stats. Schroder was once considered a future closer by the Expos/Nationals. Nah, it couldn't be that.

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent Ian Ostland (LHP, StL) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers' minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

The Cubs Re-Sign Ryan Dempster

The Chicago Cubs re-signed starter Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) to a four-year, $52 million contract. Dempster may have gotten a little lucky in 2008 but there are no glaring flukes in his stats. He is a groundball pitcher that gets a little less than a strikeout per inning, which is the formula for a great starter. If his walk-rate goes back to normal and his HR/FB (which was a very low 7.7 percent) returns to his career average of 11.1 percent, we could see some regression but not enough to rob him of all his value. If I owned him, I would be holding him.

The Orioles Sign Some Spare Parts

The Baltimore Orioles signed Brad Hennessey (RHP, BAL) and Donnie Murphy (INF, BAL) to minor league contracts and invited them to Spring Training. Hennessey is a terrible pitcher. His pathetic K/9 is only slightly higher than his bloated walk-rate. In 2008, he even reversed his GB/FB trends and allowed significantly more fly balls than grounders. He allows too many homers. He is also moving to a far worse park and league for pitchers. Hennessey should not be a fantasy consideration.

Donnie Murphy is a linedrive hitter considered a top prospect at times in his career. Unfortunately, he has never put together a season worthy of such a designation. His biggest problem is making good contact. He struck out almost 37 percent of the time during the 2008 season. His power is good but he does not hit enough flyballs to be a big homerun hitter. For the Orioles, Murphy is only an option as a utility player unless we see Brian Roberts (2B, BAL) traded.

The Giants Get Some Relief

The San Francisco Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt (LHP, SF) to a two-year $8 million contract. Affeldt was a top prospect of the Kansas City Royals who failed as a starting pitcher. He seemed to be failing as a reliever too until something seemed to click for him last season with the Cincinnati Reds. His fastball velocity made a significant jump and his strikeout rate made a corresponding leap. His walk rate also improved significantly. Affeldt has always been an extreme groundball pitcher and was even more so in 2008. Now Affeldt is moving from the hitters' haven of Cincinnati to one of the league's better pitcher's parks in San Francisco. It also does not hurt that the Giants have been obsessed with defense the last few years. If Affeldt's improvements are real (and there is little to say they are not) he should excel for the San Francisco Giants in 2009. Fantasy owners in deep leagues should be paying very close attention.

Washington Adds options at First Base

The Washington Nationals signed 1B/3B Matt Whitney (formerly of the Cleveland Indians) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. The Nationals selected Whitney in the Rule V draft in 2007 but had to return him to the Indians after a poor Spring Training, so they obviously like him.

Whitney was a top batting prospect until he suffered a major leg injury in 2003. This cost him the next three seasons of his career so he lacks the at-bats you might expect a 25-year old minor leaguer to have collected after six years in the minors. In an attempt to take more walks and improve his on-base percentage, Whitney robbed himself of some power last season. However, he was successful at improving his walk-rate (11.3 percent) and if he can keep his gains and regain his power stroke he could be a stud in the making. The Nationals have some of the best talent evaluators in the game, and they believe he can do it. Whitney is someone to watch this spring.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving! May the football, turkey, and booze be everlasting. JonWilliams@RotoExperts.com

Vote for the Next Fantasy Baseball Stud

Who is the next Fantasy Baseball Stud?

An early look at the biggest risers in fantasy baseball drafts.

The 2008 season saw the rise of several young players. Which one is your favorite for fantasy baseball dominance?

Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
B.J. Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays
Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays
Joakim Soria RP Kansas City Royals
Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds
Alexei Ramirez 2B/SS Chicago White Sox
Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston Red Sox
Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Other - Please Comment Below

View Results

Create your own myspace poll

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent lefty Ian Ostland to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers’ minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

Hot Stove Junkie

I blew up another computer last week and that's the reason for the sporadic posting. Hopefully I'll be back in prime blogging action tonight. For now you can satisfy your Jones for off season fantasy baseball articles by checking out my latest piece for RotoExperts.com, Hot Stove Junkie!

This is not a great trade for the Rockies. Greg Smith does not strikeout batters (5.25 K/9) and does not have good control (4.11 BB/9). This is a mortal combination in the thin air of Colorado. He also allows tons of fly balls (45.5 percent) and very few grounders (34.2). Avoid Smith in your fantasy drafts, as if he was the plague.

Huston Street is a competent reliever. However, he is another fly ball pitcher heading to Colorado. Street could retain competency due to his very good strikeout rate (9.07 K/9) but he will have to improve his platoon splits if he hopes to become their closer.

Carlos Gonzalez has all the tools and scouts drool over his potential. What the Athletics found out is that it may be awhile before he actually becomes a solid major league player offensively. Fortunately, for fantasy owners, the thin air has a way of speeding up the development process when it comes to batters.

Vote for Dave Cameron!

Dave Cameron is one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet and he is up for a blogger scholarship. Let's help him get it! Vote Here!

Fantasy Baseball Strategies That Don't Work

All of the strategies listed below have been successful in the past. I am not labeling these strategies as terrible but rather as dated. In long running leagues (epecially keeper leagues) with experienced, savy ownership the use, or attempted use of these strategies will not only bring you frustration but also an unsuccessful season. This is because the experienced fantasy owner studies the strategies of his opponents and shapes his own strategy to ensure the disruption of his rival's plans and the furtherance of his own. To help you counter these obstacles I've provided you with three things:

1. A description of the dated strategy and how it was supposed to work.
2. The methods your opponent can use to disrupt the strategy.
3. An alternative way to re-shape the strategy to make it workable again.

The L.I.M.A. Plan

The LIMA plan was a great strategy for a while. Ron Shandler created the LIMA plan but in reality there were lots of great players employing similar strategies for years before Ron popularized it. LIMA, stands for Low Investment Mound Aces. The idea was that in a typical 12 team, 4x4, only-league with a $260 budget you couldspend $200 to build a top ranked offense and devote just sixty dollars to your pitching staff with no more than half of that budget spent on saves. You would select the pitchers you purchased from a very select group that met certain criteria:

• K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better
• HR/9 of 1.0 or less
• K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better

At the core of the strategy was one of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball - Draft skills, not roles. Using this strategy allowed you to draft the best pitchers in the game before they became the expensive closers and starters that so many owners were spending so much of their budgets to acquire.

This plan was a huge smash and it quickly became all the rage in fantasy leagues, which is also when it became almost useless. With everyone chasing the same group of pitchers the untouted starters and middle relievers that were once atainable for $3-5 were now costing well into the double digits. Even owners who were not strictly using the strategy knew to bid up the owners utilizing the LIMA plan (which if you knew the plan was very easy to spot).

Even Ron Shandler has moved on from using the LIMA plan. There are ways to make the LIMA play workable if you are determined to use a version of it. One very simple way is to increase the budget allocated to pitching to an amount that allows you to draft a nice collection of the better LIMA pitchers but not so much that it seriously diminishes your offense. Another method is to add an Ace Pitcher (one that meets the LIMA criteria of course) to the mix. Adding an ace will not only (in theory) increase your pitching points but it will also throw your competitors off the scent when it comes to guessing your strategy.

Stars and Scrubs

This strategy has been around for almost as long as fantasy baseball has been played and there are several variations. The object of the strategy is to buy as many top tier stars as possible (both hitters and pitchers) until you only have one dollar left for each of your remaining roster spots. The idea is that a large collection of stars will carry your roster and that your scrubs give you the opportunity to get lucky.

The strategy gets beat all hollow when your opponents bid up the better scrubs and leave you with the true dregs of the league. The strategy also requires you to get lucky with both the emergence of scrubs and the continued health of your stars. The tougher your league the more difficult it is to recover from the loss of your $40 stud hitter or $25 ace starter or closer. This is also a very dangerous strategy for the novice owner to use, especially in a league full of sharks.

The plan can be salvaged by reserving enough of your budget to allocate $2-5 on those last few roster spots. Another variation is to buy just one stud per position. In other words one stud catcher, one stud corner, one stud infielder, a stud outfielder or two, an ace starter, and a top closer. If done carefully this can be done with plenty of money left to fill your other spots.

Spread the Risk

This strategy attempts to do exactly what its name says it will. In this strategy the owner will spend no more than $30 on any player. This way the owner can afford to buy lots of talent and will not need to roster many (if any) scrubs. If used intelligently this plan ensures that the owner will have a deep, balanced roster. This protects the owner from injury problems and slumping superstars.

The problem with this method is that it is very league dependent. Every league is different and some will pay different prices for certain types of players. Anyone who has ever opened a fantasy guide and scoffed at the idea of players being bought for mid-teen prices when in your league these guys go for $25-30 already know the problem. If mid-tier guys are selling for $25-30, then the true superstuds are going for just $35-40. Thus cutting off your bidding at $30 also cuts you off from all of the best quality talent.

You can use a version of this plan if you are very familiar with the spending habits of your fellow owners and you are confident in your ability to adjust your spending on the fly. The important thing is to getyour fair share of the available talent.

Punting Categories

By sacrificing a roto category such as saves or steals, the owner hopes to use the money budgeted to those categories to dominate the other ones. In the vast majority of cases the owner chooses saves, because closers are often overpriced contribute to fewer categories than starters and middle relievers.

This strategy often fails because the owners who utilize it dump the category during the draft and fail to collect enough points in the other categories to win their leagues, though it is very good at placing owners within striking distance.

Making punting a useful strategy is very simple. Rather than dump a category for the entire season, just dump it at the draft. After the draft the owner should use every available resource to find the stats he ignored during the draft. By constantly monitoring the waiver wire and taking advantage of trade opportunities its possible to do quite well in the neglected category and thus have a shot at winning the league.

One Dollar Catchers

A very common strategy in fantasy baseball drafts is too ignore the more expensive catchers in favor of drafting two $1 catchers (or waiting until the end of the draft) that receive very few at-bats. The idea behind the strategy is that so few catchers are productive (and usually even the productive ones do not compare to the comparably priced outfielders or corner infielders) that the money it takes to buy the very best at the position is better spent on more productive players at other positions. And further that with not enough catchers to go around very few of the other teams would have strong catching anyway.

While it sounds okay, essentially dumping the catching positions, it creates two holes in your fantasy lineup. The owner with strong hitting from the catcher spots has an offensive advantage that can often make a huge difference in the final standings.

Very carefully scouting catchers can usually uncover productive catchers for bargain prices. last season Ryan Doumit and Kelly Shoppach were draft day bargains that carefully scouting may have revealed. This season Jesus Flores and Pablo Sandoval may be huge bargains at the catcher position. MLB always puts added focus on weak positions which ensures that eventually the development cycle will result in a better crop of catchers.

NEXT: On Sunday read why Buying Low and Selling High is not as simple as it sounds.

FSIC American League Draft Order

Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be drafting from the eighth spot in the American League Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge. Here is the whole draft order with the other competitors listed.

1	Fantasy Baseball Dugout
2	The Fantasy Man
3	Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
4	Rotohelp
5	Sporting News
6	ProFantasy Baseball
7	Roto Central
8	Advanced Fantasy Baseball
9	Fantasy Sports R Us
10	BBall Deluxe
11	Open Team
12	Fanball

I'm glad to see that there are some great sites competing. We all know how boring it get when the competition is not up to the challenge.

Nick Swisher Joins the Yankees

Check out my RotoExperts.com blog for the fantasy spin on Nick Swisher joining the New York Yankees.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday, center fielder and first baseman Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the New York Yankees for utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Check in late tonight (maybe the morning) for a article on Fantasy Baseball Strategies.

Hot Stove Junkie

Hey peoples.

I have a new off season baseball column at RotoExperts, Hot Stove Junkie, featuring weekly fantasy spins on all the Hot Stove Transactions --from the biggest trades to the most obscure waiver pick ups. Check it out by clicking on the title link above.

I've also accepted an invitation to appear in the The Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge, where I've been given a seat in the American League.

I've also been blogging for RotoExperts. My first few posts are on Matt Holliday and the Nationals trade.

And just in case you were wondering... This site is about to explodein production. It will now feature daily posts. Most posts will be of the quick hits variety but every Friday and Sunday you'll find expansive articles exploring the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball and this is just the beginning.

Don't forget to subscribe to our RSS feed. If you aren't familiar with RSS check out the fantastic Google Reader and believe me you will be hooked. It revolutionizes blog reading.

New Situation: Mike Jacobs - Traded

Traded Player: Mike Jacobs

Old Team: Florida Marlins
New Team: Kansas City Royals

Background: As a 38th-round pick by the Mets in 1999 out of Grossmont (California) Junior College, Mike Jacobs was always an unlikely major league star. Jacobs received a chance at big league at-bats after a trade from the New York Mets to the Florida Marlins as part of the exchange for superstar slugger Carlos Delgado.

What the Scouts Say: Jacobs has hit 80 home runs and slugged .498 in four big league seasons making him a major power source for the often cash-strapped Marlins. As a Marlin, he has just a .318 on-base percentage. He cannot hit lefties (.235/.275/.414 versus them in 338 career plate appearances) but is acceptable against righties (.257 average and .315 on-base percentage in 2008). He is not much of a base runner and is below average defensively at first base.

What the Stat Guys Say: Sabermetricians will question why the Royals, who presently hold the rights to a wide variety of cheap alternatives at the first base and designated hitter spots, would spend their assets (even one as limited in ceiling as Leo Nunez) for a player that isn’t very good and not much of an improvement over players already on the forty-man roster. Kila Ka'aihue had a nice season at triple-A but needs to demonstrate that he has actually made a step up in performance level before the Royals can commit to him at the major league level. Ryan Shealy is now 30 years old and has yet to perform in the major leagues on a consistent basis. Counting on either of those players to outplay Jacobs would be a lousy bet. Billy Butler has been highly touted but has yet to perform in the majors and is not a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Jacobs hits fly balls and line drives at good rates for a power hitter. His BABIP suggests that he was unlucky last season (.264 in 2008 compared to his career rate of .292) and indicates that he could rebound slightly even though moving to the tougher American League.

Fantasy Outlook: Look for the Royals to platoon Jacobs in the lineup with right-handed first baseman Ryan Shealy to maximize their production at first base. As the left-handed batter in the platoon, he should see enough at-bats to be an asset to fantasy teams. Do not be surprised if the platoon is not a conventional one. For defensive reasons Jacobs may appear as the designated hitter in order to get top prospect (and equally poor on defense) Billy Butler some games in the field. Fantasy leaguers can expect solid power and a just barely acceptable average from Jacobs in 2009.

Brett Farve to Vikings

Once again Brett Farve is not going to be a part of the Green Bay Packers' offense. They must really have a lot of faith in Aaron Rodgers. Almost makes you want to bump him up your rankings... Rumors are pointing towards a trade to the Vikings.



From FootballGuys.com:

Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reports that QB Brett Favre is less likely to return to Green Bay. In Monday's meeting between Favre, GM Ted Thompson and HC Mike McCarthy, Favre insisted he wanted to do what is best for the team and the locker room and did not want to become more of a distraction. That also included canceling any kind of quarterback competition, meaning Aaron Rodgers will remain the starter. Favre did maintain his desire to play, and play within the division, but the Packers are scratching to find another solution. The two sides will meet again today.

Check Out RotoExperts.com

Head over to RotoExperts and read the latest edition of Moving Up, Moving Down. Here's a brief excerpt from last week's column:



It was not exactly an intervention. It was more like a State of the Union address, though instead of telling Congress what they wanted to hear, I was giving the members of my various fantasy squads a chance to praise, criticize, and berate each other as well as me. I have to admit, it's much more fun that way. A quick look around the room assured me that everyone I had invited (and a few I had made a point of not inviting) had arrived.
Robinson Cano
Robinson is part of the red hot Yankees. Photo Credit: DANNYWILD

Just as I was about to get things started one of those uninvited guests made a beeline to the podium. It was Robinson Cano, and he had a very smug look on his face.

“Hah! You told people to dump me but I’m having a great second half!”

“Congratulations Robbie. I’m very happy to have been wrong about you.”

“Why, I’m not on any of your teams. You know, since the All-Star break I’m batting .514 with three home runs and ten RBI.”

Jon: "Yes, Robbie. I was clearly wrong to suggest people dump you.”

TAKE A CAB, DAMN YOU!

Does no one in the sports world have a cell phone? I swear it seems as if more players are caught drunk driving than scoring touchdowns or stealing bases.

From the Kansas City Star:

Royals utility player arrested for DUI

A Kansas City Royals infielder spent more than seven hours in jail today after he was arrested for driving under the influence.

Campus police for the University of Missouri-Kansas City stopped Alberto J. Callaspo, 25, about 3 a.m. after he allegedly ran a red light near E. 48th and Oak streets, just north of the campus. The officer booked Callaspo into the jail at Kansas City police headquarters downtown about 4:30 a.m.

Callaspo appeared before a municipal judge via video camera about 10:10 a.m., and the judge granted him a signature bond. He was released just before noon.

Additional details about the arrest were not available because the UMKC police report was not completed.

The Royals obtained Callaspo last winter from the Diamondbacks in exchange for pitcher Billy Buckner. The Royals website said he has filled in at second base and shortstop and has a batting average of .290.

In Other Places

Sorry about my lengthy absence but it could not be helped. Enough about that.

I have managed to keep up (mostly) with my work on RotoExerts.com which has some great stuff posted lately. Check out my latest articles here as well as my contributions to the Fantasy Football Team Previews with the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions. Next week I'll have a New England Patriots Preview up on the site.

Doc Rivers and the Celtics Choke Again

A few days ago I had a serious bone to pick with Bill Simmons. Simmons, in his in Sports Guy column in ESPN the Magazine had declared Kevin Garnett NOT CLUTCH. I thought he was wrong but I've come to realize he was right. None of the present Celtics are clutch. None of the so-called Big Three wants to take open mid-range jumpers. They seem to prefer passing into a crowd to taking the open shot.

This together with Doc Rivers continuing to make stupid decisions concerning the bench and game planning has led to the Celtics taking another 2-2 record into game five.

Tim Darga give the minutes if the game on the Slam Magazine website beware he is an obvious Celtic Hater.

Fantasy Sports Writers Association

I am now a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Whoooo Hoooo!

Fixing the Boston Celtics

Can the Boston Celtics be any more disappointing than they have been throughout the playoffs? I thought the series against the Atlanta Hawks was just a fluke but I no longer believe that to be the case. The symptoms of the problem have been present the entire season and particularly in the playoffs against not just the Hawks but also against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons. Doc Rivers must be replaced. Here are the three primary symptoms that have led me to this conclusion:

1. The Offense is Unorganized - This is actually putting it quite nicely. They almost never call plays when they hold the ball everything is pure chaos. Schoolyard teams take better shots than the Celtics do. Even worse when the Celtics are trailing they get worse not better. You would think that when they fell behind the team would take smarter shots in order to cut into the leads they are trying to overcome. I blame this on overconfidence - knowing they have players the caliber of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen makes this team believe they can score from anywhere on the court at any moment. It may even be true if only the other team doesn't utilize defense against them. Calling the occasional play is necessary in the playoffs.
   
2. The Substitutions Have No Rhyme or Reason - Try to figure out what Rivers means to accomplish with his substitutions especially in the playoffs. Sam Cassell plays twenty minutes one night and five the next and over thirty the next. Glen "Big Baby" Davis is used frequently throughout the season as was Leon Powe and we've barely heard a peep from them in the playoffs. The bench played a major role in winning 66 games this season and they've been relegated to garbage time and brief breathers.
3. They Can't Win on the Road - The best team in basketball this season the Celtics should have cruised relatively unscathed through the first two rounds of the playoffs. I don't mean to disrespect the Hawks or LeBron James with this statement but those teams shouldn't have posed a major challenge. Instead the Celtics got through both these series because they had a massive talent advantage. This is called winnig in spite of Doc Rivers not with or because of him.
   

New Sports Illustrated Cover

Bulls Win the NBA Draft Lottery

The Chicago Bulls have won the right to choose between point guard Derrick Rose and power forward Michael Beasley. I'm not sure the Bulls actually need either player to win in the 2008-09 season. I was actually hoping that the new York Knicks (not my favorite team but up there) would win either the first or second pick to give them a chance at Rose but I guess that is not to be at this point.

Jeff Fox has over at Slam Online already has a Mock NBA Draft article up. Check out the entire article here but I've borrowed the Knick passage for your brief enjoyment:

6) New York – Jerryd Bayless

Team Needs – Talent; non-head cases.

First New York steals Arizona’s best head coach, and now they’re going to grab the state’s best college player. While Jerryd Bayless isn’t a pure point guard, he should be able to run-and-gun to Mike D’Antoni’s liking.

Joba Chamberlain

Joba Chamberlain has officially begun his conversion from shut-down set-up man to starter. The question fantasy owners (and the New York Yankees) have to be wondering is whether or not he can maintain his dominance pitching in the rotation every five days or so. The answer from this corner is yes.

Joba has a good collection of pitches including a fastball that tops out in the high nineties, a nearly unhittable slider, an above average change-up and a plus curve that may have a bit of rust on it at this point but it is more than just his arsenal. The better a pitcher is the more innings you want and need him to throw. Relief pitchers are easy to find if you try and the Yankees have several that only need an opportunity. Edwar Ramirez can do the job in the eighth inning and a large collection of the Yankees minor leaguers can also do the job.



For fantasy purposes you should keep Chamberlain in your lineup unless and until you hear that the Yankees are going to send him to the minors. At present the plan is for the Yankees to let Chamberlain make the transition in the majors so that the Yankees still get the benefit of his innings.

Joba Chamberlain is going to be three times as valuable as a starter than he is as a reliever. if you don't own him and the owner who does doesn't have the same faith make him a strong offer. You won't regret it.

Chris Brown Illustration

Advanced Fantasy Basketball?

There has been a lot of speculation about how Mike D'Antoni will rebuild the Knicks. Most have suggested that the Knicks do not have the type of players to succeed in the running offense that D'Antoni seems to prefer. With the exception of players like Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph I would like to frehemently disagree.

Obviously it isn't hard to suggest that a healthy and motivated Stephon Marbury could deliver a passable Steve Nash impression on the basketball court. But the player that I think will excel is the player that I have often complained was not properly utilized by Isaiah Thomas - David Lee.

Read this article from Newday and you may begin to understand why I have felt that way and why my confidence in that asserttion is only growing stronger.

Lee said after he heard D'Antoni had accepted the job as the Knicks' coach, he sent a text message to Steve Nash. The two-time MVP point guard of the Phoenix Suns, who spends most of his offseason at his Greenwich Village flat, replied with a promise to work out with Lee this summer in New York.

"This plays perfectly into what I'm trying to do," Lee said of the up-tempo system, which is similar to what he played under Billy Donovan at Florida. "My advantage against other bigs is I'm quicker and faster; I'm never going to be stronger than most of the fours or fives at this level, though I am always trying to get stronger and I will always compete physically.

Leave 'Em Alone!

I am not exactly old but when I was younger (not a kid just younger) I was often accused of smiling all the time. It was pretty much true. It was not that I walked around in never ending bliss but rather that I seemed to possess the ability to see the bright side of just about anything. I could find a reason to laugh in almost any situation. I had no problems with anyone. Yes, even the universally despised knew they had someone to lean on, a shoulder to cry on should they find themselves in need. Unfortunately, I lost that talent over the years or (being optimistic) at the very least it has been suppressed beneath a mountain of grief, betrayal and misery – what you might call life.

These days I doubt everyone’s good intentions. I count on most things ending badly. I have people that I have no choice but to consider enemies (like Spider-Man and Electro) despite wishing it were not so. I still laugh a lot but these days that laughter is about the futility of things I cannot see getting better. But despite all of my negative trends of late I still think it is pretty sad that no major league baseball team will offer Barry Bonds an opportunity to play.

There are plenty of teams that could use a player like Bonds as an upgrade to their designated hitter position or as an outfielder. A few teams even discussed bringing him in this spring but universally they all decided that it wasn’t worth it. Bonds’ lawyers have raised the issue of collusion against their client by Major League Baseball. I seriously doubt that there is any effort being made to keep him out of the game unless it is by the media which has enjoyed trashing him for years now. I don’t doubt that he brought this negativity on himself by being generally boorish and his involvement in the BALCO scandal but he isn’t the only jerk in the sport nor is he the only one in the game who has been accused of using performance enhancing drugs and has denied it.

Ask yourself this question: why is Barry Bonds who has never failed a drug test and denies the use of performance enhancing drugs not wanted in the sport and any of a dozen players who have tested positive and been suspended for it welcome to continue playing for multiple teams? Is it because he’s a better player than the assortment of unapologetic losers who have been caught? Is that why Roger Clemens is being put through the ringer (he too having never failed a drug test and constantly denying the use of any performance enhancing drug) because he was one of the best ever?

I have asked many people why they are so quick to believe the worst about the best players in the game. Almost without fail the answer comes back as an accusation of naivety on my part for giving them the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think I’m naïve if anything I’m sympathetic. I’ve been falsely accused of serious wrongdoing in the past, and punished for it despite the fact that I was completely innocent of what I was accused. I am not suggesting that I or Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is an angel, far from it, but no one has successfully proven their wrongdoing and until then I will believe them innocent. My prediction this week is that unless you’ve been falsely accused of something you won’t be able to do the same.

I'm a little late sharing them this week but as usual I have articles on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com.

Moving Up, Moving Down

This week Moving Up, Moving Down touches on a topic that is very interesting to me - The Art of Fantasy Baseball. This is an area I plan to explore a lot in the very near future. I think the Art of our game is something that every fantasy owner of every fantasy sport out there should be learning about even if at the time they aren't aware of it. It may interest you to know that I've actually begun a book based on the idea. It's good stuff on briefly touched on in the article but hopefully thought provoking nonetheless.

Crystal Ball

Anyone that has read my work for a while won't be as shocked as some by the ideas in my latest article - namely that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens should be left alone and allowed (if they so choose) to continue to play the game that they both play so well. If you read the article you will definitely learn a thing or two about me which isn't something I do a lot. Check it out.

Iron Man Movie and Wayne Krivsky

New articles are up at Crucial Taunt and Roto Experts. The new Moving Up, Moving Down can be found on rotoexperts.com right here and the new Crystal Ball can be found here on CrucialSports.com.

Moving Up this week relates the new Iron Man movie to the St. Louis Cardinals. You'll have to read it to find out how I pulled that off. The new Crystal Ball makes some predictions about the Cincinnati Reds now that they've fired General Manager Wayne Krivsky.

Check This Out:

I have pieces on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com this week. You can find my weekly Moving Up, Moving Down column on rotoexperts.com once a week (usually on Tuesday) and my weekly Crystal Ball coulumn on CrucialTaunt.com once a week on Fridays. Please check them out, send your friends, make some comments and check out the other great articles these two sites have to offer.

This week (as it will every week) Moving Up, Moving Down examines the performance of a ton of players off to either fast or slow starts and examines their potential to turn things around whether that would be for the bad or the good. This week features: Andruw Jones, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth and tons more.

The Crystal Ball takes a look at the St. Louis Cardinals and their potential to maintain their quick start. It's a ton of fun and you also get to see my very tongue-in-cheek predictions for the season awards.

Joey Votto: Be Warned!!

Many don't seem to realize it but there are dozens of great minor leaguers who never get the opportunity to prove they could have been stars in the majors. This can be the result of any number of things but most commonly it is injuries, faith-lacking managers and failed (and short) auditions that are the root-cause. One such player in my eyes was Bobby Hill, a shortstop prospect for the Chicago Cubs. He was a stud at the University of Miami. He held out for major bucks after being drafted first by the White Sox and then by the Cubs. He made quick work of the minors but had the unfortunate luck of running into Dusty Baker as his first manager. Baker gave him only short and sporadic opportunities to prove himself and when he failed to make an impression quickly he was banished to the bench once more.

Dusty Baker so negatively shaped the reputation of this player that he was included in a horrible trade to the Pirates. The Pirates refused to use him as anything other than a utility infielder and sparingly at that. Despite statistically being a better player than both Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson, Hill was never given another chance as a starter. Injuries to his back limited him in recent years. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006 after just 523 major league at-bats. Now he is playing with the Newark Bears of the Independent League.

You're probably wondering why I would spend so much space bemoaning the fate of a player that few will remember. The reason is because it could very well be happening again. Joey Votto is a highly touted young player who can perform at both the outfield and first base positions. He is a power hitter with speed that reminds me more and more everyday of Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. He was widely expected to become the starting first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds this season but then something terrible happened - Dusty Baker was hired as manager. Now Votto sits on the bench and watches 38-year old Scott Hatteberg continue to start and to hit with almost zero authority. I sincerely hope to be wrong about this but if I were a Votto owner I would trade him in the best deal I possibly could right now. Before he meets a Hillish fate.

Longoria is a Major Leaguer

It stunned everyone when Evan Longoria was sent to the minors after a Spring Training in which he was considered a lock to make the team. Personally while I was surprised he hadn't made the team I didn't necessarily think it was a bad move. Longoria although capable had nothing to lose by spending a few weeks at Triple-A.

Well now Longoria is in the major just two weeks later to replace Willy Aybar on the roster. Here's my bet that he never sees the minors again.

Year	Age*	Lg	Tm	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	20	A	A	28	110	36	8	0	8	28	22	1	1	13	19	.327	.402	.618	1.020
2006	20	AA	MON	26	105	28	5	0	6	19	14	2	1	1	20	.267	.266	.486	.752
2007	21	AA	MON	105	381	117	21	0	21	76	78	4	0	51	81	.307	.403	.528	.931
2007	21	AAA	DUR	31	104	28	8	0	5	19	19	0	0	22	29	.269	.398	.490	.888
2008	22	AAA	DUR	7	25	5	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	5	.200	.333	.200	.533
2008	22	MAJ	TAM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

*age as of 7/1 of that season

Guys I Like (and that you should too) in the National League

Hey, just because the season has started is no reason not to tell you about the guys i targeted in my drafts and auctions this year.

Last year in the National League I targeted Josh Hamilton and I got him in my NL-only league only to lose him when the Reds traded him for Edison Volquez. I raved about Heath Bell but for some reason picked him up as a reserve instead of making him my last $1 pitcher. In my league reserves can't be kept. I targeted Kelly Johnson and traded Jonathan Sanchez (who couldn't be kept beyond the 2007 season) for a $1 Johnson.

This year in the NL I thought I would grab Eugenio Velez for a buck but the Spring Traiing hype machine pushed him to $15 in NL-only. I still got him because I believe that he will eventually win the full-time second base job. In the meanwhile he'll play all over the field and steal 25 bases.

I also targeted Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. I didn't get either because I refused to pay the price they demanded ($15 and $10) at the moment they came up in my auction. I still believe that both will be solid major league starters for your fantasy team this year. I don't think they'll continue to be as untouchable as they've looked in the Spring and thus far this season but still quite valuable for those of you in keeper leagues. If you have them in a re-draft league I recommend you trade them by the end of May.

In the outfield I tried to trade for Lastings Milledge and Nate McLouth (at $5a and $2) but I was only able to get McLouth from him. I think both will be awesome players this season. Milledge has the ability to develop into a 30/30 type of player. This season I wouldn't count on more than 15/20 but the rest is coming soon. McLouth is a guy that I drafted for my minor league system a long long long time ago and then gave up on him. Actually I gave up on the Pirates, but same difference. McLouth has some on-base skills that have been quietly improving and pretty good speed on the bases. I'm expecting 15/25 this season and maybe a 20/40 peak season.

Next up? American League targets...

2008 Season Kick Off (and I'm not dead)

I'm sure anyone that is still reading this blog has long since stopped looking for great advice to bring into your draft or auction. But I did help out a bit last season. I was ine of the very few touting Heath Bell as a great late round pick. I raved about the opportunity to grab Kelly Johnson who would be the new Braves second baseman. Sure, I also thought Darin Erstad would be worth a buck but more often than not I was helping.

You knew that Erstad thing was just a joke post, right?

Injury Updates

I write a weekly column on Sportsblurb.com that covers baseball injuries. I'm going to start highlighting bits of the articles here in hopes that you will start to frequent both sites. Here is a sample from last week's article:

I won’t ask for a show of hands because I am certain you have all missed me lots. Finally baseball has returned a city near you and players are going down at a record pace. For those new to the game in this space once a week we will review each teams injury situation and do our best to give your fantasy team an edge on the competition. I am no doctor as much as my mother may wish it were so (my wallet wishes with her by the way) but I am the master googler and no one spends more time reading the small notes at the ends of hundreds of articles the way I do. If you have the patience to read as many articles as I do than you are probably a doctor that had no problem memorizing the names of all those bones... But in any case I’m here to do most of the legwork for you and remind you of what you might already know.

What some of you may already know is that I’m a huge supporter of drafting and acquiring the frequently injured who are not injured at the moment. Why? The primary reason is that the better players that fit in the frequently injured category can often be had for much less than full value. Chances are the owners of Nomar Garciaparra and Ken Griffey Jr. are already nervous and ready to sell. I say pounce. The guy that drafted Darin Erstad is pretty happy with things right now I’m betting, how much do you think he paid? That guy knows that it pays to keep up with the status of the injured and the frequently injured and since that’s what you’re here for I won’t make you wait any longer.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

Jaret Wright wasted no time resuming his career as a disabled pitcher. It is a shoulder injury so it is a serious one and he will be out indefinitely. Wright is the type of guy that dissuades folks from messing around with the injured guys. I am here to tell you that I cross pitchers with sore shoulders off my list until they prove to be well past such things. Wright has been off the list for years now.

Ramon Hernandez is on the disabled list with a strained oblique which is a bad injury for a catcher or a pitcher as they muscles come into play with every throw or pitch. Fortunately, if the injury is given sufficient time to heal that is all that is necessary to make a full recovery. It seems obvious that the Orioles will give Hernandez that time. He should be able to return by late April or early May.

He was brought in to play left field but instead has manned the disabled list thus far this season. Jay Payton has a strained hamstring and will be out until late April at least. He should make a full recovery since base stealing isn’t really his thing anyway. He should begin playing in extended spring training games fairly soon.

And of course Kris Benson is on the disabled list and out for the season after having shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. Last season that Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio trade looked pretty bad, this season with Julio having been traded for former top prospect Yusmiero Petit and with Maine a solid part of the New York Mets rotation it looks even worse.

Boston Red Sox

Jon Lester did not want to be placed on the disabled list or be sent to the minors. Lester felt he was already recovered from the effects of his chemotherapy and was ready to pitch in the majors. I think Lester’s assessment of his own health and readiness was right on but the Red Sox are slow to adapt when situations change. The Red Sox never expected to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka they were merely trying to block him from the New York Yankees which was probably a solid strategy. But when Scott Boras seemed almost reasonable they ended up signing him to a very good deal for the team if you consider what top starters are earning nowadays. With Dice-K in hand their plan to move Jon Papelbon to the rotation was largely unnecessary - the shoulder problem was just a convenient excuse, don’t be fooled. But having presented the excuse they felt the need to draw it out until they looked just plain stupid not to put Papelbon back in the closer role. What does this have to do with Lester’s situation? Well the weak Red Sox bullpen could have been strengthened considerably just by moving Lester to the bullpen for a few months until a spot in the rotation opened up, hell he would have been a better closer candidate than most of the guys the Red Sox were messing around with. Even now he would provide a strong middle innings lefty reliever better than anything on their roster right now.

Matt Clement is on the disabled list following shoulder surgery and is unlikely to return before July or August of he returns at all. I don’t think he will.

New York Yankees

With the exception of Kei Igawa every one of the Yankees projected starters has been injured already this season. Andy Pettitte has already returned from his sore back and pitched six strong innings against the Minnesota twins. It looks like the Yankees’ lefty will be fine. Mike Mussina is day-today with a sore hamstring but he has not been placed on the disabled list just yet. The Yankees are hoping he will only need to miss one start but I’m going to tell you to prepare for him to miss two and return early next week instead. Carl Pavano started for the Yankees on opening day much to the shock of every baseball fan on the planet. Now he is experiencing tightness in his forearm which is often an early indication of an elbow problem, so beware. The Yankees ace is supposed to be sinkerball pitcher Chien-Ming Wang but he started the season on the disabled list with strained hamstring and will likely return as soon as April 24^th but some sites are still indicating an early May return.

The replacement starters are even going down in New York this season. The Yankees are trying very hard to avoid rushing top pitching prospects like Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard and Chase Wright and have instead gone to a deep second tier that includes names like Darrel Rasner and Jeff Karstens. Karstens has already gone down himself joining Humberto Sanchez and Jose Veras as the young (or younger anyway) Yankee pitchers on the disabled list. Karstens and Sanchez both have elbow issues. Karstens is thought to be close to an early may return while Sanchez is considered out indefinitely.

Hideki Matsui has a sore hamstring and was placed on the disabled list last week. He is eligible to return on April 23^rd and most reports have the Yankees activating him on that date and returning my boy Kevin Thompson to the minors rather than dropping a dead weight like Miguel Cairo instead. Like the obliques described above hamstring strains if allowed to rest long enough will usually heal nicely without much in the way of treatment. Matsui is already hitting off a batting tee and probably isn’t taking enough time off. He may be gimpy all season as a result. Matsui isn’t really that reliant on his legs for speed but it could diminish his power if he is more sore than he lets on.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Greg Norton (I initially wrote Ken Norton which is sort of amusing) has a torn meniscus in his right knee and will be out at least four to six weeks after his surgery which is schedule for this coming Monday. This will win more at-bats for the wide array of prospects and once-weres that populate the bench in Tampa Bay.

Jon Switzer who I sort of liked as a prospect at one point is on the 60-day disabled list and is not going to return anytime soon apparently. He is reported to have shoulder tendonitis which would seem to take two months to get over but that’s what he will be getting.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have another pitching staff decimated by injuries. Brandon League is on the disabled list with a partially torn rotator cuff and isn’t likely to have much impact this season. He is now the closer of the very distant future. John Thompson has sore shoulder which isn’t much of a surprise and has no return date scheduled. With pitching prospect Dustin McGowan showing skills again it may never happen.

Outfielder Adam Lind was finally recalled from the minors when Reed Johnson hit the disabled list with a herniated disc in his back. This is one of those injuries that could bother him for the next two years or go away after two weeks rest. Pick up Lind if possible he is the real deal and an upgrade from Johnson in my opinion.

Troy Glaus is already in mid-season form with both a sore heel and a cranky hamstring. The Jays are giving him a couple of days but he’d probably be better off with a week.

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

Watch me jinx the Chi-Sox... The White Sox have significant injuries. Catcher Toby Hall is on the disabled list with a sore shoulder but is already throwing and could return in a week or two.

Cleveland Indians

Victor Martinez should be able to play this week after missing a few games with a sore quadriceps muscle. He’ll likely be eased back slowly as the designated hitter or at first base which will allow Kelly Shoppach to get a few more at-bats while robbing Ryan Garko of his.

Left-hander Cliff Lee is already making rehab starts and could return in a week or so depending on his effectiveness. He and reliever Matt Miller who is out with a strained right forearm should be back on the Cleveland pitching staff by early May.

Detroit Tigers

Roman Colon is out of options so if his rehab doesn’t go well he could be released rather than return to the Tigers. Colon is joined on the disabled list by Edward Campusano who has had Tommy John Surgery and is out for the season and the Tiger ace Kenny Rogers. Rogers of course is out because of surgery to repair a blood clot in his shoulder. Rogers should be able to return in late July.

Catcher Vance Wilson is out with an injured right elbow and will miss about a month.

Kansas City Royals

The 55 million dollar man has a tight hamstring. Gil Meche is not expected to miss a start but I thought you would want to know. I’m helpful that way.

Open another tab right now and see if Joakim Soria is available in your league. If he is pick him up especially if you were counting on Octavio Dotel for saves. Dotel will probably get his job back when the time comes but that may not be for quite a while. Dotel has a strained oblique and while he was expected to return quickly he hasn’t really made any progress, in the meanwhile manager Buddy Bell is falling in love with Soria.

Starters Luke Hudson and Scott Elarton are both still expected to play a large role in the Royals rotation this season. Hudson has a sore shoulder and is eligible to return in the coming week though he will probably be out a few weeks more. Elarton is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Monday but should be back in a couple of weeks if all goes well.

John Bale and Joe Nelson figured to be a big part of the Kansas City bullpen but both have been struck down by injuries. Bale has a hairline fracture in his right wrist and could be back in a couple of weeks but may need to earn his spot back in the minors. Nelson was placed on the 60-day disabled list after shoulder surgery and could miss the entire season.

Minnesota Twins

Jeff Cirillo was a favorite of mine to take over the third base job from Nick Punto. I know Punto has his fans and defenders but I just don’t see his continued success. Unfortunately arthroscopic surgery on his will keep him out at least four to six weeks. He could be out until late May or early June in a worst case scenario. The Twins did call up Alexi Casilla who could be the starting second baseman next season and makes a most excellent pickup in deeper keeper leagues this season.

Outfielders Lew Ford and Rondell White have hit the 15-day disabled list already forcing the Twins to utilize Josh Rabe and Jason Tyner much earlier and much more often than expected. Ford had surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee and will miss a month at least. White has a strained right calf and while it isn’t serious White is a notorious slow healer.

I am so happy to have drafted Francisco Liriano in my primary AL-only keeper league for a mere $8. I figure I’ve got an ace locked up for several years, after he spends this one in the disabled list that is. Technically, Liriano could probably return late this season in say August but the Twins will do the right thing and give him the whole season off and use the winter to get him in shape for 2008.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels haven’t developed any luck along with all their premium prospects. Bartolo Colon is rehabbing well and should be able to return in a couple of weeks. Unfortunately Jered Weaver was forced to start the season on the disabled list with bicep tendonitis. Weaver is scheduled to return on Monday against the Red Sox but that won’t help as much as it should since Kelvim Escobar has shoulder irritation and has been placed on the disabled list as a result. Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders will hang around to fill the gaps until things stabilize.

You already know that outfielder Juan Rivera broke his leg this winter and that Chone Figgins joined him on the disabled list this spring with fractures in his fingers. Recent x-rays show he is progressing nicely and he has started swinging. He is expected to have at least a short rehab stint but should return pretty quickly.

Former third base prospect Dallas McPherson had back surgery in January and will probably miss the entire season. It is kinda sad how far he has dropped off the radar of most fans.

Oakland Athletics

Center fielder Milton Bradley is day-to-day with a sore left hamstring. He isn’t expected to miss much time but game-boy is one of those guys that tend to irritate owners year after year. Todd Walker has been getting playing time as a result of Bradley’s injuries. The situation is all the worse with Mark Kotsay out until July after pre-season back surgery.

Dan Johnson may have squandered his best opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of Oakland general manager Billy Beane. Johnson seems to be a last resort for Oakland and his injury doesn’t help him at all. Johnson has a sore hip and looks ready to return in early May but what his role will be is a little up in the air.

Esteban Loaiza’s sore neck is still bothering him and when he will return is a mystery at this point. I hope you aren’t counting on him for much.

Seattle Mariners

Arthur Rhodes has a tear in his UCL but expects to return soon and pitch with it anyway. Don’t believe it for a second. He is going down it is just a matter of time .His bullpen buddy Mark Lowe has had his second elbow surgery and will be out until at least July and should not be bothered with until next season at the soonest.

Texas Rangers

John Rheinecker is on the 15-day disabled list with a strained back but will probably end up in the minors when he returns. Jamey Wright’s injury has probably lost him his fifth starter job for the season. Wright has right shoulder inflammation and will miss at least a couple of weeks. Pick up Kameron Loe; he’s the man you want if you’re searching for a Texas starter who might still be available.

National League East

Atlanta Braves

Hopefully you pocketed that early save before Chad Paronto went on the disabled list with a strained groin. He should be able to return in a couple of weeks.

The fifth starter role was all locked up for Lance Cormier and then he went and strained his triceps muscle. He’ll need a few rehab starts but should return pretty quickly.

I know you thought Mike Hampton was returning this season but after tearing his flexor tendon he is out for the season. He should be able to return in 2008 but at this point he has a lot to prove before he is worth rostering again.

Willy Aybar has an injured left hand and is not ready to start hitting yet. He is a few weeks away at best.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins can’t catch a break in center field. Alejandro De Aza looked pretty good this spring but is now sidelined with a slight ankle sprain. Jeremy Hermida is helping matters by being constantly unavailable this time due to a sore knee. But this is one of those cases where I would swoop in with an offer. Hermida is a potential stud but his owner in keeper leagues is likely very frustrated with over a year of nothing for stats. The deeper your outfield corps the more I would recommend acquiring him. I think he’ll be back in early May and start showing off his stud form again. But you need to act now to get the frustration discount.

Grab up Henry Owens if he is still available. Jorge Julio doesn’t have much hope of getting the closer role back with so many better options on the squad. So many people seem to think Taylor Tankersley will get the job but not only don’t I think it will happen I can’t see where this is coming from, not from Freddie Gonzalez certainly. Ricky Nolasco is another one always mentioned as in the running for the role but the Marlins want him to start ultimately. Nolasco should return from his elbow strain in early May if all goes well.

Josh Johnson has been playing catch and will begin throwing on back-to-back days this week. The Marlins don't expect Johnson to be activated from the disabled list until early-June.

New York Mets

Juan Padilla has torn his flexor tendon and is probably out for the season. He won’t help the Mets’ bullpen from the disabled list will he? Duaner Sanchez won’t be helping much either. He just had a screw put into his shoulder to repair a fracture. He isn’t likely to appear in the majors before August if at all this season.

Technically Dave Williams will be ready to return to the Mets in a couple of weeks but in reality I wouldn’t give him a snowball’s chance in hell of being in the Mets rotation this year.

Pedro Martinez is looking better and better everyday and it looks like he’ll be a huge part of the Mets’ rotation after the All-Star Break.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have no significant injuries to report, that won’t last.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are a thin enough team without adding a bunch of injuries to the mix. Nick Johnson should be at the heart of the Nats’ lineup but instead he will out until June or so as he makes a painfully slow recovery from a broken leg.

Christian Guzman was being counted on to provide good defense at short but he landed on the DL with a quickness. He is scheduled to start baseball activities this week and should only be a couple of weeks from a return if all goes well.

The Nationals placed center fielder Nook Logan on the 15-day disabled list with a left foot strain. Logan is expected to miss two or three weeks.

Luis Ayala is scheduled to begin throwing this week but is still a few weeks from a return to the majors.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are hurting....

On a more relevant note Aramis Ramirez has tendonitis in his right wrist. He has been placed on anti-inflammatory medication and is expected to be fine in a few days.

Cincinnati Reds

Chris Denorfia had Tommy John Surgery and will be out for the entire season.

The Reds placed Rule V pick Jared Burton on the disabled list with a strained hamstring but in reality they are just stashing him.

Bill Bray will wear a splint for a week or two while he recovers from a fracture in his index finger. He should be fine once the finger heals.

Eddie Guardado is another one of those guys who is injured but worth acquiring. He is throwing now and should be ready to return in late June and he just might go straight into a closer role.

Houston Astros

Jason Jennings is on the disabled list and will miss at least two starts because of elbow tendonitis. An MRI didn’t show any ligament damage so it isn’t nearly as bad as it could be.

Brandon Backe is also out of action after pre-season elbow surgery. He is scheduled to return in August but I wouldn’t count on it.

Milwaukee Brewers

Corey Koskie is probably done playing baseball because of post-concussion syndrome.

Pittsburgh Pirates

John Grabow is already pitching in the minors and could return from his elbow strain any day now.

St. Louis Cardinals

Scott Rolen’s had some back spasms this week. Supposedly he’s fine but it is something for his owners to worry about.

The Cardinals went into the season thinking Chris Carpenter was the one stud pitcher they could rely on, oops. Now they hope that two weeks of rest will allow him to avoid needing surgery to heal the impingement in his right elbow. I’m worried how about you?

Left-hander Mark Mulder should be able to return in July from shoulder surgery but how effective he’ll be is the big question. Torn labrums are tough to predict.

Following Tommy John Surgery Josh Kinney is out for the season. Too bad I sorta liked him...

Juan Encarnacion is on the DL with a sore left wrist but he isn’t that good anyway so you might be better off.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

How Randy Johnson throws in a bullpen session on Monday will determine whether he's activated to start Thursday against the Padres. Johnson is pretty much healed from his back surgery he’s just rounding into pitching form at this point. If he isn’t good this season it probably has more to do with his age than his back.

Carlos Quentin should be able to return to the Diamondback’s active roster this week. His shoulder injury seems to be a thing of the past. He’s a great player who can still have an awesome season.

Jeff DaVanon may receive a cortisone injection to speed his recovery from shoulder surgery but since he is still in pain when he swings it will likely be a couple of weeks if the D’backs know what’s good for ‘em.

Colorado Rockies

Rodrigo Lopez will miss his scheduled start Sunday because of right elbow inflammation. Byung-Hyun Kim will take his spot in the rotation.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers placed outfielder Matt Kemp on the disabled list with a separated shoulder. "It's a grade one separation," manager Grady Little said. "It's going to be between seven days and two weeks. It's the right thing for us to do right now. A lot can be told the day after something like that happens." ‘nuff said?

Hong-Chih Kuo will begin his rehab from a sore shoulder this week. If all goes well he should return to active duty in a couple of weeks.

Outfielder Jason Repko is on the 15-day disabled list with torn hamstring tendons. Repko is likely to miss the entire season following surgery Wednesday.

San Diego Padres

Catcher Josh Bard hit the disabled list with a strained groin. He should be fine after a couple of weeks rest.

San Francisco Giants

And finally the Giants have no significant injuries to report. That just can’t last with such an old team.