Saturday, December 06, 2008

Dreaming of the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List

Are you shopping around for the ultimate gifts to buy the fantasy baseball lover in your life? Or perhaps you just want to give your loved ones the ultimate list of gift ideas. If so then look no further than this very blog post. This giant article lists every thing the fantasy baseball needs to participate and excel in the ultimate optimum dream world. (Amazon Links - just in case you're tempted)

The HARDWARE
We are dreaming here, right? That means there is no budget or real life situations to concern us. Since that is the case I will be listing every piece of hardware I would love to have for fantasy baseball purposes.

The Ultimate Laptop: HP Pavilion TX2510US 12.1-inch Laptop Black
This thing is so hot. It has great specs (2.10 GHz AMD Turion X2 ZM-80 Processor, 3 GB RAM, 250 GB Hard Drive, DVD Drive, Vista Premium) and great features. The thing I love most about it is that widescreen rotating touch screen. Man! that is beautiful. I make out great with my refurbished Think Pad but if money were no object, this would be my machine.



The Ultimate All-In-One Printer/Scanner: Canon Pixma MX700 Office All-On-One Inkjet Printer (2186B002)
Even with the ultimate laptop to take to your live drafts and auctions, you'll need a printer to print your emergency back-up lists (I've mentioned how important that is haven't I). This is one of the better ones and it isn't even all that expensive.



The Ultimate Cell Phone: The iPhone 3G
I've been dreaming about an iphone since I first heard the rumors. Unfortunately it just hasn't been possible with my non-existent budget. Like the HP it's all about the touchscreen. Other cell phones have touchscreens but they don't come close to the iphone's. For the ultimate fantasy baseball guy, constant access to the internet whether on the bus or on the can at work (courtesy flush please) is a real desire (and if you're the adventurous type you can use the iphone to connect your laptop to the internet). If you already have an iphone, check out this great selection of iphone accessories - I'll take that leather case, please.

The Ultimate Flat Screen HDTV Monitor: LG 42LG30 42-Inch 720p LCD HDTV
What is the point of watching your players in action if you aren't watching them in HD? I love the LG brand and this model has a fantastic price when you buy it through amazon.



The SUBSCRIPTIONS

The 2009 MLB.tv Season Package

Watch all of the out of market games from anywhere you can access the internet. This service has improved in leaps and bounds the last couple of seasons and I couldn't live without it. I would die for the person that got me this subscription. This includes over 2400 possible games and even 100 spring training games (when fantasy baseball scouting is at its height).

Scout.com Annual Total Access Pass
This is the best site on the planet for the very serious sports fan. For the fantasy baseball fan it is almost without par. It includes access to teams of scouts for every MLB, NLF, NCAA, and NBA team. Link your subscription to your favorite team and you'll also get a year-long subscription to your team's official magazine. Winter leagues, fall leagues, spring training, minor leagues - it is all covered. Believe me, you won't miss a thing with this site in your pocket.

The Baseball Prospectus Gift Subscription
Baseball Prospectus covers every aspect of the game from the minors to ownership issues. You also get the articles of the best baseball injury analyst in the business, Will Carroll. This site does some fantasy stuff but the real reason to subscribe is because they give you the all important context you need to understand baseball organizations and the way they think. It's relatively cheap too.

Gold Subscription to BaseballHQ.com: Fantasy Baseball Intelligence for Winners
This service is not cheap but it is the best in the business. Ron Shandler is the expert's expert. He has changed the way that smart people study baseball and he did it through our game. There is no aspect of this hobby that this subscription doesn't help you understand - from cheatsheets and draft software to contact rates and the LIMA plan. A MUST HAVE

The BOOKS

Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season
A preseason look at all of the moves and all of the players that will shape each organization in 2009. This is like a 1000-page fantasy baseball magazine. By March 1st, I feel lost without it.



The 2009 John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book
John Sickels is one of the best minor league analysts in the business. His book includes extensive lists on all of the prospects with a letter grade to help you easily understand their level of talent.

Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook: The Comprehensive Guide to Rising Stars
Baseball America is the definitive source of minor league and prospect information for almost the entire baseball industry. They lean heavily to the scouting side of things which is why you also need more numbers oriented evaluations like those you get from John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus.



Ron Shandler's 2009 Baseball Forecaster

The annual publication that supplements the website. This has all the player stats and strategy tips you need to excel every season. When you buy the book you also get free updates from the HQ website.



Art McGee's How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball
One of the most valuable skills that the fantasy baseball owner can learn is to value his own players. Every league is unique, so the better you understand your league the more accurately you can value players. This book will help you do just that. A classic that should be in every fantasy fan's library.



The ACCESORIES

Laptop Carrying Case: Timbuk2 264-X-570 - Ballistic Commute Laptop Messenger Bag in Black
This is a great gift idea all by itself. It will hold everything, the laptop, your lunch and cheatsheets that you will need at your fantasy draft. Not to mention its pratical everyday uses. I already have one.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Software: Roto Lab
There are many different options out there when it comes to draft software. Roto Lab is the standard they all aspire to reach. This software will cheap track of every team's budget and players and even recommend players and auction values that change based on your draft's inflation on draft day. If you a subscription to Baseball HQ you can qualify for a discount on this software. A MUST HAVE

FUN STUFF

Baseball Jersey: Birmingham Black Barons Pro Jersey

I love those vintage jersey's and they even come in huge sizes for big guys like me. If the old school stuff isn't for you a MLB replica of your favorite player's jersey works. Hey, you have to look cool at the draft.



And the Matching Cap: Birmingham Black Barons Fitted Cap

No point in wearing a jersey if you don't have a lid to go with it...



That was tons of fun for me. If only Santa Claus would deliver. What's on your Ultimate Gift List?


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Friday, December 05, 2008

Scouting the Dominican Republic


I am one of those fantasy baseball guys that loves to study prospects. Nothing makes me happier (and increases my hat size) more than having identified players like Jose Reyes, Nate McLouth, and Mike Piazza before anyone else in my leagues. If you are a similar sort than you need to read this series of articles by Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It follows Rene Gayo, Latin American scouting director for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It explores the entire process of scouting and signing international prospects. This is a MUST READ.

Part One: A young Dominican out duels peers who play baseball 'for food'


Part Two: New academy just one part of building talent pool

Part Three: Gayo's focus is on finding talent, but he must battle emotions in process


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Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey


There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

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Thursday, December 04, 2008

Sleeper Alert: Khalil Greene


I posted my thoughts on shortstop Khalil Greene's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals from the San Diego Padres today on the RotoExperts.com fantasy baseball blog. It is my intention that anyone who reads this blog not miss any tidbits I might have to offer. I say this so you'll know that the many links to that site aren't purely marketing related. I get nothing for sending people to that blog or to the RotoExperts.com. I just happen to write for it and believe that it is well worth reading.

Anyway, I think Khalil Greene is a great addition for the Cardinals and he should dramatically improve his fantasy value this season. Here is a clip and a link if you are inclined to read the entire post:
Khalil has a career BABIP of .285 while the average BABIP is closer to .300. He has a career LD percentage of 19.5, which is not spectacular but certainly solid. His career FB percentage 45.8 should also indicate some solid production with a power hitter like Khalil. But Petco seems to have tanked his HR/FB to a disappointing 9.6 percent. Just for comparison’s sake, J.J. Hardy has a just a 37.9 FB percentage but a career 11.9 HR/FB percentage (14.1 percent in 2008). A “normal” HR/FB percentage is around 11 percent. Busch Stadium (still a slight pitchers’ park with its Park Factor of .943 runs) is going to seem like a Little League field to Khalil in 2009.



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Wednesday, December 03, 2008

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade


There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:
Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.
If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs
(remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).


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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.


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Monday, December 01, 2008

Would You Draft Phil Hughes


After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.
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Saturday, November 29, 2008

2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria

To Have a Great Hot Stove Season

Head over to the RotoExperts.com baseball blog for my article on how to have a great hot stove season.

Reflect on last season

This very valuable step is often missed, especially when your fantasy baseball season ended in frustration. By looking back we can uncover where we went wrong. Did we take too many chances at the draft? Have you become predictable? Was that drunken Fourth of July trade you made with your weasel of a cousin a bad idea? Did you dump CC Sabathia on some “sucker” after his second terrible start in April? Making these self-evaluations, we can stop ourselves from making the same mistakes again.

We should also take the time to study our rivals. How did your league champion win? Does he make amazing trades? Did he rebuild for two years? Maybe your rival has a weakness for players on the Boston Red Sox that you can exploit. Does he have what looks like an unbeatable collection of young stars he can keep? Perhaps he exploited a loophole in the rules. We need to know our rivals as well as ourselves.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Favorite Statistical Sources

Everyday there is another great site pops up that presents the baseball team and player statistics. The sites linked below are my favorites. They are not only great, they are free, so please support them in whatever fashion possible.

TheBaseballCube.com
When I want to get a quick sense of a player thebaseballcube.com is the first place I go. Not only do I get the basic stats that count for fantasy but key bits of information such as birthdate, age at each level, college stats, honors and awards that have been granted the player and a bunch more.

FanGraphs.com
When I need to understand where a player is going statistically or when I want to know why they rose or fell, this is the site I check. Fangraphs has tons of great stats that you rarely find on other sites - wOBA, IFFB percentage, HR/FB, IFH%, WPA and tons more. Plus, this site has a great blog that Dave Cameron --one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet -- contributes to frequently.

HardBallTimes.com
Sometimes I just need someone else to do the heavy lifting for a whilw and that means a trip to hardballtimes.com is in my future. Everything is here -- the news, the stats, the analysis, the fantasy spins, and the great reads. These guys also produce one of the very best baseball annuals in the business. Their annual has everything that the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Baseball Forecaster are always missing.

FirstInning.com

When I need to study a prospect there is only one source for advanced stats (that won't cost you an arm and a first born) and that is FirstInning.com. All of the stats you want when you're studying up on major leaguers are here for minor leaguers. Plus - prospect lists, charts, graphs, park factors, league factors -- everything you need to seriously examine prospects is here.


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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Thanksgiving Hot Stove

This is not shaping up as a good off-season for my fantasy teams. Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) was a big part of my 13 team NL-only league. Holliday, of course, was dealt to the American League dwelling Oakland Athletics. That same team included Chase Utley (2B, PHI), about to have surgery on his hip. The best-case scenario for Utley seems to be the shaving of a few bone spurs and a rehab process that would keep him inactive for most of Sprint Training. The worst case would involve serious repairs and a prayer for a return in July. In addition, as you have probably guessed, that same NL-only squad features Chad Billingsley (RHP, LAD), who slipped on some ice and broke his fibula on Friday. Billingsley should be ready for the start of Spring Training but my plans to trade him are crumbling. I hope that your off-season is going better than mine is.

Hot Stove Report

The Braves Claim a LOOGY

The Atlanta Braves claimed Eric O'Flaherty (LHP, ATL) off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. O'Flaherty has some potential as a bullpen lefty. He is a groundball specialist who has shown strikeout potential in the minors but has fooled no one in his brief stints in the majors. He will not be in the closer mix so his fantasy value is zero (if not less than that).

The Phillies Trade Tools for Power

The Phillies traded their most advanced outfield prospect, Greg Golson (OF, PHI), for John Mayberry Jr. (OF, TEX), the Rangers power hitting prospect. Golson has all of the baseball tools. Unfortunately, he has demonstrated few of the baseball skills the Phillies expected their former first round pick to develop, especially plate discipline. It is worth noting that the Rangers have shown a remarkable ability to turn disappointing outfield prospects into productive major leaguers the last few years. Golson's ability to play center field gives him a chance to make the Rangers as a reserve if they trade Marlon Byrd (OF, TEX) as rumored. Golson should be watched carefully in Spring Training.

John Mayberry has gone backwards as a prospect. He has traded walks for a more aggressive approach at the plate, which has resulted in more homeruns but not much else of value. The Phillies do need a power hitting left fielder if Pat Burrell (OF, FA) leaves via free agency. This is a situation worth watching. If the Phillies are unable to sign a big name outfielder Mayberry could become a serious option.

The Red Sox Strengthen their Bullpen

The Red Sox traded Coco Crisp (OF, KC) to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez (RHP, BOS). Ramirez is a good relief pitcher. If Ramirez improved his walk-rate (3.89 in 2008) he could be a potential closer. He has held opponents to a .235 batting average in his career and just .220 in 2008. He also collects about a strikeout per inning. The seventh and eight innings were a problem at times for the Red Sox last season, Ramirez shores that up nicely. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners, Ramirez is probably third or fourth in line for saves behind Jon Papelbon (RHP, BOS).

The Royals Acquire Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp had some horrible luck while in Boston. He broke his wrist, suffered a separate hand injury amid a series of other minor but aggravating maladies, and lost his job to a much-hyped prospect. Here is an early Big Fat Claim: Coco Crisp will regain all of the power he seemed to lose as a Red Sox with the Royals. Barring any bad news, he will be coming into this season completely healthy, with a full time job for the first time in three years.

Billy Beane Signs a Reliever

The Oakland Athletics signed Chris Schroder (RHP, OAK) formerly of the Washington Nationals to a one-year contract. Schroder has little chance of making the major league team but Billy Beane sees something in him so this transaction is worth noting. What Beane sees is a mystery to me. He does not get groundballs, he walks too many batters, and he allows too many homeruns. Gasp! Perhaps Billy Beane signed a player based on his scouting report rather than his stats. Schroder was once considered a future closer by the Expos/Nationals. Nah, it couldn't be that.

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent Ian Ostland (LHP, StL) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers' minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

The Cubs Re-Sign Ryan Dempster

The Chicago Cubs re-signed starter Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) to a four-year, $52 million contract. Dempster may have gotten a little lucky in 2008 but there are no glaring flukes in his stats. He is a groundball pitcher that gets a little less than a strikeout per inning, which is the formula for a great starter. If his walk-rate goes back to normal and his HR/FB (which was a very low 7.7 percent) returns to his career average of 11.1 percent, we could see some regression but not enough to rob him of all his value. If I owned him, I would be holding him.

The Orioles Sign Some Spare Parts

The Baltimore Orioles signed Brad Hennessey (RHP, BAL) and Donnie Murphy (INF, BAL) to minor league contracts and invited them to Spring Training. Hennessey is a terrible pitcher. His pathetic K/9 is only slightly higher than his bloated walk-rate. In 2008, he even reversed his GB/FB trends and allowed significantly more fly balls than grounders. He allows too many homers. He is also moving to a far worse park and league for pitchers. Hennessey should not be a fantasy consideration.

Donnie Murphy is a linedrive hitter considered a top prospect at times in his career. Unfortunately, he has never put together a season worthy of such a designation. His biggest problem is making good contact. He struck out almost 37 percent of the time during the 2008 season. His power is good but he does not hit enough flyballs to be a big homerun hitter. For the Orioles, Murphy is only an option as a utility player unless we see Brian Roberts (2B, BAL) traded.

The Giants Get Some Relief

The San Francisco Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt (LHP, SF) to a two-year $8 million contract. Affeldt was a top prospect of the Kansas City Royals who failed as a starting pitcher. He seemed to be failing as a reliever too until something seemed to click for him last season with the Cincinnati Reds. His fastball velocity made a significant jump and his strikeout rate made a corresponding leap. His walk rate also improved significantly. Affeldt has always been an extreme groundball pitcher and was even more so in 2008. Now Affeldt is moving from the hitters' haven of Cincinnati to one of the league's better pitcher's parks in San Francisco. It also does not hurt that the Giants have been obsessed with defense the last few years. If Affeldt's improvements are real (and there is little to say they are not) he should excel for the San Francisco Giants in 2009. Fantasy owners in deep leagues should be paying very close attention.

Washington Adds options at First Base

The Washington Nationals signed 1B/3B Matt Whitney (formerly of the Cleveland Indians) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. The Nationals selected Whitney in the Rule V draft in 2007 but had to return him to the Indians after a poor Spring Training, so they obviously like him.

Whitney was a top batting prospect until he suffered a major leg injury in 2003. This cost him the next three seasons of his career so he lacks the at-bats you might expect a 25-year old minor leaguer to have collected after six years in the minors. In an attempt to take more walks and improve his on-base percentage, Whitney robbed himself of some power last season. However, he was successful at improving his walk-rate (11.3 percent) and if he can keep his gains and regain his power stroke he could be a stud in the making. The Nationals have some of the best talent evaluators in the game, and they believe he can do it. Whitney is someone to watch this spring.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving! May the football, turkey, and booze be everlasting. JonWilliams@RotoExperts.com
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Vote for the Next Fantasy Baseball Stud

Who is the next Fantasy Baseball Stud?

An early look at the biggest risers in fantasy baseball drafts.

The 2008 season saw the rise of several young players. Which one is your favorite for fantasy baseball dominance?
Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
B.J. Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays
Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays
Joakim Soria RP Kansas City Royals
Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds
Alexei Ramirez 2B/SS Chicago White Sox
Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston Red Sox
Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Other - Please Comment Below

View Results

Create your own myspace poll

Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent lefty Ian Ostland to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers’ minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Hot Stove Junkie
























I blew up another computer last week and that's the reason for the sporadic posting. Hopefully I'll be back in prime blogging action tonight. For now you can satisfy your Jones for off season fantasy baseball articles by checking out my latest piece for RotoExperts.com, Hot Stove Junkie!

This is not a great trade for the Rockies. Greg Smith does not strikeout batters (5.25 K/9) and does not have good control (4.11 BB/9). This is a mortal combination in the thin air of Colorado. He also allows tons of fly balls (45.5 percent) and very few grounders (34.2). Avoid Smith in your fantasy drafts, as if he was the plague.

Huston Street is a competent reliever. However, he is another fly ball pitcher heading to Colorado. Street could retain competency due to his very good strikeout rate (9.07 K/9) but he will have to improve his platoon splits if he hopes to become their closer.

Carlos Gonzalez has all the tools and scouts drool over his potential. What the Athletics found out is that it may be awhile before he actually becomes a solid major league player offensively. Fortunately, for fantasy owners, the thin air has a way of speeding up the development process when it comes to batters.

Vote for Dave Cameron!

Dave Cameron is one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet and he is up for a blogger scholarship. Let's help him get it! Vote Here!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Strategies That Don't Work

All of the strategies listed below have been successful in the past. I am not labeling these strategies as terrible but rather as dated. In long running leagues (epecially keeper leagues) with experienced, savy ownership the use, or attempted use of these strategies will not only bring you frustration but also an unsuccessful season. This is because the experienced fantasy owner studies the strategies of his opponents and shapes his own strategy to ensure the disruption of his rival's plans and the furtherance of his own. To help you counter these obstacles I've provided you with three things:

1. A description of the dated strategy and how it was supposed to work.
2. The methods your opponent can use to disrupt the strategy.
3. An alternative way to re-shape the strategy to make it workable again.

The L.I.M.A. Plan

The LIMA plan was a great strategy for a while. Ron Shandler created the LIMA plan but in reality there were lots of great players employing similar strategies for years before Ron popularized it. LIMA, stands for Low Investment Mound Aces. The idea was that in a typical 12 team, 4x4, only-league with a $260 budget you couldspend $200 to build a top ranked offense and devote just sixty dollars to your pitching staff with no more than half of that budget spent on saves. You would select the pitchers you purchased from a very select group that met certain criteria:

• K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better
• HR/9 of 1.0 or less
• K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better
At the core of the strategy was one of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball - Draft skills, not roles. Using this strategy allowed you to draft the best pitchers in the game before they became the expensive closers and starters that so many owners were spending so much of their budgets to acquire.

This plan was a huge smash and it quickly became all the rage in fantasy leagues, which is also when it became almost useless. With everyone chasing the same group of pitchers the untouted starters and middle relievers that were once atainable for $3-5 were now costing well into the double digits. Even owners who were not strictly using the strategy knew to bid up the owners utilizing the LIMA plan (which if you knew the plan was very easy to spot).

Even Ron Shandler has moved on from using the LIMA plan. There are ways to make the LIMA play workable if you are determined to use a version of it. One very simple way is to increase the budget allocated to pitching to an amount that allows you to draft a nice collection of the better LIMA pitchers but not so much that it seriously diminishes your offense. Another method is to add an Ace Pitcher (one that meets the LIMA criteria of course) to the mix. Adding an ace will not only (in theory) increase your pitching points but it will also throw your competitors off the scent when it comes to guessing your strategy.

Stars and Scrubs

This strategy has been around for almost as long as fantasy baseball has been played and there are several variations. The object of the strategy is to buy as many top tier stars as possible (both hitters and pitchers) until you only have one dollar left for each of your remaining roster spots. The idea is that a large collection of stars will carry your roster and that your scrubs give you the opportunity to get lucky.

The strategy gets beat all hollow when your opponents bid up the better scrubs and leave you with the true dregs of the league. The strategy also requires you to get lucky with both the emergence of scrubs and the continued health of your stars. The tougher your league the more difficult it is to recover from the loss of your $40 stud hitter or $25 ace starter or closer. This is also a very dangerous strategy for the novice owner to use, especially in a league full of sharks.

The plan can be salvaged by reserving enough of your budget to allocate $2-5 on those last few roster spots. Another variation is to buy just one stud per position. In other words one stud catcher, one stud corner, one stud infielder, a stud outfielder or two, an ace starter, and a top closer. If done carefully this can be done with plenty of money left to fill your other spots.

Spread the Risk

This strategy attempts to do exactly what its name says it will. In this strategy the owner will spend no more than $30 on any player. This way the owner can afford to buy lots of talent and will not need to roster many (if any) scrubs. If used intelligently this plan ensures that the owner will have a deep, balanced roster. This protects the owner from injury problems and slumping superstars.

The problem with this method is that it is very league dependent. Every league is different and some will pay different prices for certain types of players. Anyone who has ever opened a fantasy guide and scoffed at the idea of players being bought for mid-teen prices when in your league these guys go for $25-30 already know the problem. If mid-tier guys are selling for $25-30, then the true superstuds are going for just $35-40. Thus cutting off your bidding at $30 also cuts you off from all of the best quality talent.

You can use a version of this plan if you are very familiar with the spending habits of your fellow owners and you are confident in your ability to adjust your spending on the fly. The important thing is to getyour fair share of the available talent.

Punting Categories

By sacrificing a roto category such as saves or steals, the owner hopes to use the money budgeted to those categories to dominate the other ones. In the vast majority of cases the owner chooses saves, because closers are often overpriced contribute to fewer categories than starters and middle relievers.

This strategy often fails because the owners who utilize it dump the category during the draft and fail to collect enough points in the other categories to win their leagues, though it is very good at placing owners within striking distance.

Making punting a useful strategy is very simple. Rather than dump a category for the entire season, just dump it at the draft. After the draft the owner should use every available resource to find the stats he ignored during the draft. By constantly monitoring the waiver wire and taking advantage of trade opportunities its possible to do quite well in the neglected category and thus have a shot at winning the league.

One Dollar Catchers

A very common strategy in fantasy baseball drafts is too ignore the more expensive catchers in favor of drafting two $1 catchers (or waiting until the end of the draft) that receive very few at-bats. The idea behind the strategy is that so few catchers are productive (and usually even the productive ones do not compare to the comparably priced outfielders or corner infielders) that the money it takes to buy the very best at the position is better spent on more productive players at other positions. And further that with not enough catchers to go around very few of the other teams would have strong catching anyway.

While it sounds okay, essentially dumping the catching positions, it creates two holes in your fantasy lineup. The owner with strong hitting from the catcher spots has an offensive advantage that can often make a huge difference in the final standings.

Very carefully scouting catchers can usually uncover productive catchers for bargain prices. last season Ryan Doumit and Kelly Shoppach were draft day bargains that carefully scouting may have revealed. This season Jesus Flores and Pablo Sandoval may be huge bargains at the catcher position. MLB always puts added focus on weak positions which ensures that eventually the development cycle will result in a better crop of catchers.

NEXT: On Sunday read why Buying Low and Selling High is not as simple as it sounds.

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Friday, November 14, 2008

FSIC American League Draft Order

Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be drafting from the eighth spot in the American League Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge. Here is the whole draft order with the other competitors listed.

1Fantasy Baseball Dugout
2The Fantasy Man
3Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
4Rotohelp
5Sporting News
6ProFantasy Baseball
7Roto Central
8Advanced Fantasy Baseball
9Fantasy Sports R Us
10BBall Deluxe
11Open Team
12Fanball

I'm glad to see that there are some great sites competing. We all know how boring it get when the competition is not up to the challenge.

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Nick Swisher Joins the Yankees

Check out my RotoExperts.com blog for the fantasy spin on Nick Swisher joining the New York Yankees.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday, center fielder and first baseman Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the New York Yankees for utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.
Check in late tonight (maybe the morning) for a article on Fantasy Baseball Strategies.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Hot Stove Junkie

Hey peoples.

I have a new off season baseball column at RotoExperts, Hot Stove Junkie, featuring weekly fantasy spins on all the Hot Stove Transactions --from the biggest trades to the most obscure waiver pick ups. Check it out by clicking on the title link above.

I've also accepted an invitation to appear in the The Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge, where I've been given a seat in the American League.

I've also been blogging for RotoExperts. My first few posts are on Matt Holliday and the Nationals trade.

And just in case you were wondering... This site is about to explodein production. It will now feature daily posts. Most posts will be of the quick hits variety but every Friday and Sunday you'll find expansive articles exploring the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball and this is just the beginning.

Don't forget to subscribe to our RSS feed. If you aren't familiar with RSS check out the fantastic Google Reader and believe me you will be hooked. It revolutionizes blog reading.


Sunday, November 02, 2008

New Situation: Mike Jacobs - Traded


Traded Player: Mike Jacobs

Old Team: Florida Marlins
New Team: Kansas City Royals

Background: As a 38th-round pick by the Mets in 1999 out of Grossmont (California) Junior College, Mike Jacobs was always an unlikely major league star. Jacobs received a chance at big league at-bats after a trade from the New York Mets to the Florida Marlins as part of the exchange for superstar slugger Carlos Delgado.

What the Scouts Say: Jacobs has hit 80 home runs and slugged .498 in four big league seasons making him a major power source for the often cash-strapped Marlins. As a Marlin, he has just a .318 on-base percentage. He cannot hit lefties (.235/.275/.414 versus them in 338 career plate appearances) but is acceptable against righties (.257 average and .315 on-base percentage in 2008). He is not much of a base runner and is below average defensively at first base.

What the Stat Guys Say: Sabermetricians will question why the Royals, who presently hold the rights to a wide variety of cheap alternatives at the first base and designated hitter spots, would spend their assets (even one as limited in ceiling as Leo Nunez) for a player that isn’t very good and not much of an improvement over players already on the forty-man roster. Kila Ka'aihue had a nice season at triple-A but needs to demonstrate that he has actually made a step up in performance level before the Royals can commit to him at the major league level. Ryan Shealy is now 30 years old and has yet to perform in the major leagues on a consistent basis. Counting on either of those players to outplay Jacobs would be a lousy bet. Billy Butler has been highly touted but has yet to perform in the majors and is not a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Jacobs hits fly balls and line drives at good rates for a power hitter. His BABIP suggests that he was unlucky last season (.264 in 2008 compared to his career rate of .292) and indicates that he could rebound slightly even though moving to the tougher American League.

Fantasy Outlook: Look for the Royals to platoon Jacobs in the lineup with right-handed first baseman Ryan Shealy to maximize their production at first base. As the left-handed batter in the platoon, he should see enough at-bats to be an asset to fantasy teams. Do not be surprised if the platoon is not a conventional one. For defensive reasons Jacobs may appear as the designated hitter in order to get top prospect (and equally poor on defense) Billy Butler some games in the field. Fantasy leaguers can expect solid power and a just barely acceptable average from Jacobs in 2009.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Brett Farve to Vikings

Once again Brett Farve is not going to be a part of the Green Bay Packers' offense. They must really have a lot of faith in Aaron Rodgers. Almost makes you want to bump him up your rankings... Rumors are pointing towards a trade to the Vikings.



From FootballGuys.com:
Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reports that QB Brett Favre is less likely to return to Green Bay. In Monday's meeting between Favre, GM Ted Thompson and HC Mike McCarthy, Favre insisted he wanted to do what is best for the team and the locker room and did not want to become more of a distraction. That also included canceling any kind of quarterback competition, meaning Aaron Rodgers will remain the starter. Favre did maintain his desire to play, and play within the division, but the Packers are scratching to find another solution. The two sides will meet again today.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Check Out RotoExperts.com

Head over to RotoExperts and read the latest edition of Moving Up, Moving Down. Here's a brief excerpt from last week's column:



It was not exactly an intervention. It was more like a State of the Union address, though instead of telling Congress what they wanted to hear, I was giving the members of my various fantasy squads a chance to praise, criticize, and berate each other as well as me. I have to admit, it's much more fun that way. A quick look around the room assured me that everyone I had invited (and a few I had made a point of not inviting) had arrived.
Robinson Cano
Robinson is part of the red hot Yankees. Photo Credit: DANNYWILD

Just as I was about to get things started one of those uninvited guests made a beeline to the podium. It was Robinson Cano, and he had a very smug look on his face.

“Hah! You told people to dump me but I’m having a great second half!”

“Congratulations Robbie. I’m very happy to have been wrong about you.”

“Why, I’m not on any of your teams. You know, since the All-Star break I’m batting .514 with three home runs and ten RBI.”


Jon: "Yes, Robbie. I was clearly wrong to suggest people dump you.”

Friday, June 27, 2008

TAKE A CAB, DAMN YOU!

Does no one in the sports world have a cell phone? I swear it seems as if more players are caught drunk driving than scoring touchdowns or stealing bases.

From the Kansas City Star:

Royals utility player arrested for DUI

A Kansas City Royals infielder spent more than seven hours in jail today after he was arrested for driving under the influence.

Campus police for the University of Missouri-Kansas City stopped Alberto J. Callaspo, 25, about 3 a.m. after he allegedly ran a red light near E. 48th and Oak streets, just north of the campus. The officer booked Callaspo into the jail at Kansas City police headquarters downtown about 4:30 a.m.

Callaspo appeared before a municipal judge via video camera about 10:10 a.m., and the judge granted him a signature bond. He was released just before noon.

Additional details about the arrest were not available because the UMKC police report was not completed.

The Royals obtained Callaspo last winter from the Diamondbacks in exchange for pitcher Billy Buckner. The Royals website said he has filled in at second base and shortstop and has a batting average of .290.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

In Other Places

Sorry about my lengthy absence but it could not be helped. Enough about that.

I have managed to keep up (mostly) with my work on RotoExerts.com which has some great stuff posted lately. Check out my latest articles here as well as my contributions to the Fantasy Football Team Previews with the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions. Next week I'll have a New England Patriots Preview up on the site.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Doc Rivers and the Celtics Choke Again


A few days ago I had a serious bone to pick with Bill Simmons. Simmons, in his in Sports Guy column in ESPN the Magazine had declared Kevin Garnett NOT CLUTCH. I thought he was wrong but I've come to realize he was right. None of the present Celtics are clutch. None of the so-called Big Three wants to take open mid-range jumpers. They seem to prefer passing into a crowd to taking the open shot.

This together with Doc Rivers continuing to make stupid decisions concerning the bench and game planning has led to the Celtics taking another 2-2 record into game five.

Tim Darga give the minutes if the game on the Slam Magazine website beware he is an obvious Celtic Hater.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Fantasy Sports Writers Association


I am now a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Whoooo Hoooo!

Fixing the Boston Celtics


Can the Boston Celtics be any more disappointing than they have been throughout the playoffs? I thought the series against the Atlanta Hawks was just a fluke but I no longer believe that to be the case. The symptoms of the problem have been present the entire season and particularly in the playoffs against not just the Hawks but also against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons. Doc Rivers must be replaced. Here are the three primary symptoms that have led me to this conclusion:

  1. The Offense is Unorganized - This is actually putting it quite nicely. They almost never call plays when they hold the ball everything is pure chaos. Schoolyard teams take better shots than the Celtics do. Even worse when the Celtics are trailing they get worse not better. You would think that when they fell behind the team would take smarter shots in order to cut into the leads they are trying to overcome. I blame this on overconfidence - knowing they have players the caliber of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen makes this team believe they can score from anywhere on the court at any moment. It may even be true if only the other team doesn't utilize defense against them. Calling the occasional play is necessary in the playoffs.
  2. The Substitutions Have No Rhyme or Reason - Try to figure out what Rivers means to accomplish with his substitutions especially in the playoffs. Sam Cassell plays twenty minutes one night and five the next and over thirty the next. Glen "Big Baby" Davis is used frequently throughout the season as was Leon Powe and we've barely heard a peep from them in the playoffs. The bench played a major role in winning 66 games this season and they've been relegated to garbage time and brief breathers.
  3. They Can't Win on the Road - The best team in basketball this season the Celtics should have cruised relatively unscathed through the first two rounds of the playoffs. I don't mean to disrespect the Hawks or LeBron James with this statement but those teams shouldn't have posed a major challenge. Instead the Celtics got through both these series because they had a massive talent advantage. This is called winnig in spite of Doc Rivers not with or because of him.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

New Sports Illustrated Cover

Bulls Win the NBA Draft Lottery


The Chicago Bulls have won the right to choose between point guard Derrick Rose and power forward Michael Beasley. I'm not sure the Bulls actually need either player to win in the 2008-09 season. I was actually hoping that the new York Knicks (not my favorite team but up there) would win either the first or second pick to give them a chance at Rose but I guess that is not to be at this point.

Jeff Fox has over at Slam Online already has a Mock NBA Draft article up. Check out the entire article here but I've borrowed the Knick passage for your brief enjoyment:

6) New York – Jerryd Bayless

Team Needs – Talent; non-head cases.

First New York steals Arizona’s best head coach, and now they’re going to grab the state’s best college player. While Jerryd Bayless isn’t a pure point guard, he should be able to run-and-gun to Mike D’Antoni’s liking.

Joba Chamberlain


Joba Chamberlain has officially begun his conversion from shut-down set-up man to starter. The question fantasy owners (and the New York Yankees) have to be wondering is whether or not he can maintain his dominance pitching in the rotation every five days or so. The answer from this corner is yes.

Joba has a good collection of pitches including a fastball that tops out in the high nineties, a nearly unhittable slider, an above average change-up and a plus curve that may have a bit of rust on it at this point but it is more than just his arsenal. The better a pitcher is the more innings you want and need him to throw. Relief pitchers are easy to find if you try and the Yankees have several that only need an opportunity. Edwar Ramirez can do the job in the eighth inning and a large collection of the Yankees minor leaguers can also do the job.



For fantasy purposes you should keep Chamberlain in your lineup unless and until you hear that the Yankees are going to send him to the minors. At present the plan is for the Yankees to let Chamberlain make the transition in the majors so that the Yankees still get the benefit of his innings.

Joba Chamberlain is going to be three times as valuable as a starter than he is as a reliever. if you don't own him and the owner who does doesn't have the same faith make him a strong offer. You won't regret it.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Advanced Fantasy Basketball?
























There has been a lot of speculation about how Mike D'Antoni will rebuild the Knicks. Most have suggested that the Knicks do not have the type of players to succeed in the running offense that D'Antoni seems to prefer. With the exception of players like Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph I would like to frehemently disagree.

Obviously it isn't hard to suggest that a healthy and motivated Stephon Marbury could deliver a passable Steve Nash impression on the basketball court. But the player that I think will excel is the player that I have often complained was not properly utilized by Isaiah Thomas - David Lee.

Read this article from Newday and you may begin to understand why I have felt that way and why my confidence in that asserttion is only growing stronger.

Lee said after he heard D'Antoni had accepted the job as the Knicks' coach, he sent a text message to Steve Nash. The two-time MVP point guard of the Phoenix Suns, who spends most of his offseason at his Greenwich Village flat, replied with a promise to work out with Lee this summer in New York.

"This plays perfectly into what I'm trying to do," Lee said of the up-tempo system, which is similar to what he played under Billy Donovan at Florida. "My advantage against other bigs is I'm quicker and faster; I'm never going to be stronger than most of the fours or fives at this level, though I am always trying to get stronger and I will always compete physically.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Leave 'Em Alone!

I am not exactly old but when I was younger (not a kid just younger) I was often accused of smiling all the time. It was pretty much true. It was not that I walked around in never ending bliss but rather that I seemed to possess the ability to see the bright side of just about anything. I could find a reason to laugh in almost any situation. I had no problems with anyone. Yes, even the universally despised knew they had someone to lean on, a shoulder to cry on should they find themselves in need. Unfortunately, I lost that talent over the years or (being optimistic) at the very least it has been suppressed beneath a mountain of grief, betrayal and misery – what you might call life.

These days I doubt everyone’s good intentions. I count on most things ending badly. I have people that I have no choice but to consider enemies (like Spider-Man and Electro) despite wishing it were not so. I still laugh a lot but these days that laughter is about the futility of things I cannot see getting better. But despite all of my negative trends of late I still think it is pretty sad that no major league baseball team will offer Barry Bonds an opportunity to play.

There are plenty of teams that could use a player like Bonds as an upgrade to their designated hitter position or as an outfielder. A few teams even discussed bringing him in this spring but universally they all decided that it wasn’t worth it. Bonds’ lawyers have raised the issue of collusion against their client by Major League Baseball. I seriously doubt that there is any effort being made to keep him out of the game unless it is by the media which has enjoyed trashing him for years now. I don’t doubt that he brought this negativity on himself by being generally boorish and his involvement in the BALCO scandal but he isn’t the only jerk in the sport nor is he the only one in the game who has been accused of using performance enhancing drugs and has denied it.

Ask yourself this question: why is Barry Bonds who has never failed a drug test and denies the use of performance enhancing drugs not wanted in the sport and any of a dozen players who have tested positive and been suspended for it welcome to continue playing for multiple teams? Is it because he’s a better player than the assortment of unapologetic losers who have been caught? Is that why Roger Clemens is being put through the ringer (he too having never failed a drug test and constantly denying the use of any performance enhancing drug) because he was one of the best ever?

I have asked many people why they are so quick to believe the worst about the best players in the game. Almost without fail the answer comes back as an accusation of naivety on my part for giving them the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think I’m naïve if anything I’m sympathetic. I’ve been falsely accused of serious wrongdoing in the past, and punished for it despite the fact that I was completely innocent of what I was accused. I am not suggesting that I or Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is an angel, far from it, but no one has successfully proven their wrongdoing and until then I will believe them innocent. My prediction this week is that unless you’ve been falsely accused of something you won’t be able to do the same.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

I'm a little late sharing them this week but as usual I have articles on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com.

Moving Up, Moving Down

This week Moving Up, Moving Down touches on a topic that is very interesting to me - The Art of Fantasy Baseball. This is an area I plan to explore a lot in the very near future. I think the Art of our game is something that every fantasy owner of every fantasy sport out there should be learning about even if at the time they aren't aware of it. It may interest you to know that I've actually begun a book based on the idea. It's good stuff on briefly touched on in the article but hopefully thought provoking nonetheless.

Crystal Ball

Anyone that has read my work for a while won't be as shocked as some by the ideas in my latest article - namely that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens should be left alone and allowed (if they so choose) to continue to play the game that they both play so well. If you read the article you will definitely learn a thing or two about me which isn't something I do a lot. Check it out.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Iron Man Movie and Wayne Krivsky

New articles are up at Crucial Taunt and Roto Experts. The new Moving Up, Moving Down can be found on rotoexperts.com right here and the new Crystal Ball can be found here on CrucialSports.com.

Moving Up this week relates the new Iron Man movie to the St. Louis Cardinals. You'll have to read it to find out how I pulled that off. The new Crystal Ball makes some predictions about the Cincinnati Reds now that they've fired General Manager Wayne Krivsky.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Check This Out:

I have pieces on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com this week. You can find my weekly Moving Up, Moving Down column on rotoexperts.com once a week (usually on Tuesday) and my weekly Crystal Ball coulumn on CrucialTaunt.com once a week on Fridays. Please check them out, send your friends, make some comments and check out the other great articles these two sites have to offer.

This week (as it will every week) Moving Up, Moving Down examines the performance of a ton of players off to either fast or slow starts and examines their potential to turn things around whether that would be for the bad or the good. This week features: Andruw Jones, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth and tons more.

The Crystal Ball takes a look at the St. Louis Cardinals and their potential to maintain their quick start. It's a ton of fun and you also get to see my very tongue-in-cheek predictions for the season awards.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Joey Votto: Be Warned!!


Many don't seem to realize it but there are dozens of great minor leaguers who never get the opportunity to prove they could have been stars in the majors. This can be the result of any number of things but most commonly it is injuries, faith-lacking managers and failed (and short) auditions that are the root-cause. One such player in my eyes was Bobby Hill, a shortstop prospect for the Chicago Cubs. He was a stud at the University of Miami. He held out for major bucks after being drafted first by the White Sox and then by the Cubs. He made quick work of the minors but had the unfortunate luck of running into Dusty Baker as his first manager. Baker gave him only short and sporadic opportunities to prove himself and when he failed to make an impression quickly he was banished to the bench once more.

Dusty Baker so negatively shaped the reputation of this player that he was included in a horrible trade to the Pirates. The Pirates refused to use him as anything other than a utility infielder and sparingly at that. Despite statistically being a better player than both Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson, Hill was never given another chance as a starter. Injuries to his back limited him in recent years. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006 after just 523 major league at-bats. Now he is playing with the Newark Bears of the Independent League.

You're probably wondering why I would spend so much space bemoaning the fate of a player that few will remember. The reason is because it could very well be happening again. Joey Votto is a highly touted young player who can perform at both the outfield and first base positions. He is a power hitter with speed that reminds me more and more everyday of Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. He was widely expected to become the starting first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds this season but then something terrible happened - Dusty Baker was hired as manager. Now Votto sits on the bench and watches 38-year old Scott Hatteberg continue to start and to hit with almost zero authority. I sincerely hope to be wrong about this but if I were a Votto owner I would trade him in the best deal I possibly could right now. Before he meets a Hillish fate.

Longoria is a Major Leaguer




It stunned everyone when Evan Longoria was sent to the minors after a Spring Training in which he was considered a lock to make the team. Personally while I was surprised he hadn't made the team I didn't necessarily think it was a bad move. Longoria although capable had nothing to lose by spending a few weeks at Triple-A.

Well now Longoria is in the major just two weeks later to replace Willy Aybar on the roster. Here's my bet that he never sees the minors again.

Year Age* Lg Tm G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 20 A A 28 110 36 8 0 8 28 22 1 1 13 19 .327 .402 .618 1.020
2006 20 AA MON 26 105 28 5 0 6 19 14 2 1 1 20 .267 .266 .486 .752
2007 21 AA MON 105 381 117 21 0 21 76 78 4 0 51 81 .307 .403 .528 .931
2007 21 AAA DUR 31 104 28 8 0 5 19 19 0 0 22 29 .269 .398 .490 .888
2008 22 AAA DUR 7 25 5 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 5 .200 .333 .200 .533
2008 22 MAJ TAM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
*age as of 7/1 of that season

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Guys I Like (and that you should too) in the National League



Hey, just because the season has started is no reason not to tell you about the guys i targeted in my drafts and auctions this year.

Last year in the National League I targeted Josh Hamilton and I got him in my NL-only league only to lose him when the Reds traded him for Edison Volquez. I raved about Heath Bell but for some reason picked him up as a reserve instead of making him my last $1 pitcher. In my league reserves can't be kept. I targeted Kelly Johnson and traded Jonathan Sanchez (who couldn't be kept beyond the 2007 season) for a $1 Johnson.

This year in the NL I thought I would grab Eugenio Velez for a buck but the Spring Traiing hype machine pushed him to $15 in NL-only. I still got him because I believe that he will eventually win the full-time second base job. In the meanwhile he'll play all over the field and steal 25 bases.

I also targeted Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. I didn't get either because I refused to pay the price they demanded ($15 and $10) at the moment they came up in my auction. I still believe that both will be solid major league starters for your fantasy team this year. I don't think they'll continue to be as untouchable as they've looked in the Spring and thus far this season but still quite valuable for those of you in keeper leagues. If you have them in a re-draft league I recommend you trade them by the end of May.

In the outfield I tried to trade for Lastings Milledge and Nate McLouth (at $5a and $2) but I was only able to get McLouth from him. I think both will be awesome players this season. Milledge has the ability to develop into a 30/30 type of player. This season I wouldn't count on more than 15/20 but the rest is coming soon. McLouth is a guy that I drafted for my minor league system a long long long time ago and then gave up on him. Actually I gave up on the Pirates, but same difference. McLouth has some on-base skills that have been quietly improving and pretty good speed on the bases. I'm expecting 15/25 this season and maybe a 20/40 peak season.

Next up? American League targets...

2008 Season Kick Off (and I'm not dead)

I'm sure anyone that is still reading this blog has long since stopped looking for great advice to bring into your draft or auction. But I did help out a bit last season. I was ine of the very few touting Heath Bell as a great late round pick. I raved about the opportunity to grab Kelly Johnson who would be the new Braves second baseman. Sure, I also thought Darin Erstad would be worth a buck but more often than not I was helping.

You knew that Erstad thing was just a joke post, right?