Friday, December 12, 2008

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.
Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.
Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.





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Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.


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Thursday, December 11, 2008

More Updates From the Winter Meetings



The trades just keep coming from Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings. I've written more updates on the RotoExperts.com blog and now of course I share them with you.

CC Sabathia Agrees to Pitch for the New York Yankees
In the end the New York Yankees refused to take no for an answer. CC Sabathia had no issues with playing in New York his problem was that he really wanted to live and play on the West Coast. Unfortunately for Sabathia none of the West Coast teams were willing to step to the plate. It might have dragged on even longer but Brian Cashman was so determined to sign him that he left the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas to meet with Sabathia and his wife in San Francisco. Cashman also added another year onto the contract and gave Sabathia the ability to opt out of the contract after three seasons.The final deal was for seven years and $161 million.
Closer J.J. Putz Traded in Three Team Deal
The Mets received closer (now set-up man) J.J. Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed, and right-hander Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners received outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and, from the Mets, right-hander Aaron Heilman, center fielder Endy Chavez and four Minor Leaguers -- first baseman Mike Carp, right-hander Maikel Cleto, left-hander Jason Vargas and center fielder Ezekiel Carrera. The Indians received right-hander Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from the Mariners.
The Detroit Tigers Acquire RHP Edwin Jackson
The Detroit Tigers have sent outfielder Matt Joyce to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Edwin Jackson. The trade fills a need on both teams. The Tigers needed a healthy starter to eat some innings. While the Rays needed a corner outfielder.




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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

More from the Hot Stove Junkie

The latest Hot Stove Junkie is posted on RotoExperts.com. Lots of interesting moves last week to analyze.

The Boston Red Sox Sign another Japanese Pitcher
I ran into Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein last week. I wanted to ask him about his off-season plans but he just kept repeating the same phrase.

I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so


After walking away in confusion, I heard some news that rather explained it. The Red Sox had just signed their third Japanese pitcher. Right-hander Junichi Tazawa signed a three-year deal for $3.3 million. Tazawa is just 22 years-old. He will begin the 2009 season pitching for the double-A Portland Sea Dogs. Translating Japanese numbers to relevance for fantasy leaguers has always been a problem but Tazawa appears worthy of top prospect status. He spent the last four years pitching in the Japanese Industrial League for Nippon Oil where he was 13-1 with 5 saves and a 0.80 ERA this season in 21 games. He struck out 114 batters to just 15 walks in 113 innings. He is someone to watch, but I would not go nuts for him just yet.


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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Winter Meetings Update

The Winter Meetings were quite active today with some expected moves and some not so expected. The rumors of even more moves were running rampant. I've been writing updates for the RotoExperts.com blog all day between sessions with my 11-month old niece who has become quite the mimic. She can almost perfectly imitate her grandfather's smoking cough, it is even more hilarious than it sounds. I'm summarizing all the moves here, check out the links for the complete analysis.

Today's Moves

The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million.
The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million. The signing is pending a physical for Everett. Believe it or not this is an okay move for the Tigers even if it does nothing for fantasy leaguers. The Tigers could not afford (or at least were unwilling) to sign one of the better free agents. They were engaged in trade talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire shortstop Jack Wilson. Trading for Wilson would have been a much worse move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers reached contract agreements with free agents Casey Blake (3B, LAD) and Mark Loretta (2B, LAD). Blake received a three-year contract worth $17.1 million. Loretta received a one-year deal worth $1.25 million to act as the teams utility man.
These are decent deal for the Dodgers who have made lots of terrible free agent deals in recent years . Both are signed relatively cheaply and not for many years. They also aren't paid so much that they couldn't be moved to the bench or another team should a younger player emerge.

Francisco Rodriguez was expecting to sign a bank breaking contract as the best closer on the market. Instead he has agreed to a nice but not groundbreaking deal with the New York Mets who played him and the market almost perfectly. K-Rod's deal is for three-years and $37 million.

Rodriguez is one of the best closers in baseball and an excellent fantasy option. However, it is important that owners know that Rodriguez is not the fireballer he was a few years ago. Rather than throwing his fastball 97-98 mph, he throws it 93-94. It may not seem like a huge distinction but it is to major league hitters. He claims to have taken some off his fastball to increase his control. If that's true it isn't working. In 2008 his K/9 fell from over twelve four straight years to 10.14 in 2008. At the same time his BB/9 has risen to nearly 4.50 the last two seasons.

The re-building baltimore Orioles opened a spot for the best prospect in the minors when they traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers - infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.
Ryan Freel should be a versatile reserve for the Orioles playing all three outfield positions and second and third base when necessary. Freel has decent on-base skills and good speed that he uses to steal bases at about a 75 percent success rate. Freel is an excellent pick-up in deeper leagues for his versatility and stolen bases. In shallower leagues he doesn't have much value unless he gets more consistent playing time.

Monday, December 08, 2008

Catcher Gerald Laird Traded to Detroit Tigers

Last night catcher Gerald Laird was sent to the Detroit Tigers for two prospects believed to be RHP Guillermo Moscoso and RHP Carlos Melo. This is definitely not the trade I was expecting to see.

Gerald Laird has yet to establish his real level in the majors. He has shown fantastic offensive potential as well as being very inconsistent at times. Moving from the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington to Commerica Park is going to have a negative impact. Commerica hasn't played as a pitcher's park the last couple of seasons but it definitely is more limiting on hitters than the Rangers ballpark. But frankly Laird is a hard player to figure out considering his consistent inconsistency. As long as we're paying for him based on last year's numbers I think he is a good pickup at catcher. If members of your league get excited about him based on the trade then it would be better to pass than to overpay.
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Sunday, December 07, 2008

ROTOEXPERTS.COM TO SPONSOR UFC FIGHTER AT UFC 92




This is so cool:

December 8, 2008, Safety Harbor, FL. RotoExperts, LLC today announced that they have partnered with Team BombSquad to sponsor Mike Massenzio for his fight at Ultimate Fighting Championship 92. UFC 92 will take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on the last weekend of December 2008.

UFC 92 has recently been touted as “The Ultimate 2008,” offering the best fight card assembled in UFC history, with two title belts on the line over the course of the evening. The fight will be available via Pay-Per-View, and viewership is expected to approach one million households. Massenzio enters the fight with an 11-2 record, while his opponent, UFC 7 Runner-Up CB Dollaway sits at 7-1. This is the first sponsorship of its kind for a fantasy sports-affiliated venture.

"RotoExperts.com is very pleased to be sponsoring one of the fighters on the best card the UFC has ever offered,” said Ben Ice, founder of RotoExperts.com. "In our short tenure as a fantasy sports advice site, we are looking to take a more active role helping to advance various areas of the sports entertainment world. Since our primary demographic also enjoys UFC, it is a natural match for us when considering sponsorship opportunities."

"Team BombSquad is extremely happy to be working with RotoExperts.com," added Ryan Citoli, manager for Team BombSquad. "Mike is thrilled to have a sponsor like RotoExperts in his corner to support and promote him, and Team BombSquad is looking forward to a long working relationship with both RotoExperts and Mike."

To view the fight, contact your PPV provider prior to December 27, 2008. The first fight on the card begins at 10:00PM EST / 7:00PM PST. Viewers can also access the fight via Yahoo! Sports if they prefer to watch online.

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John Smoltz Noise




According to an article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution, free agent right-hander John Smoltz is now throwing which puts him ahead of schedule in his rehab. I admit to having an irrational love for John Smoltz. He will always be one of my favorites --even when drafting him is extremely risky.

"Roger was impressed, and John’s on Cloud 9. No pain at all. None. Zero pain. Man, he’s way ahead of schedule.”

Smoltz, citing a desire to focus his energy on a rehabilitation and workout regimen, has declined most media requests for offseason progress reports. However, he eased the moratorium long enough to confirm that Friday’s session went well, and concurred with Cox’s optimistic view of his comeback.

“Every thing [is progressing], every day,” said Smoltz, who seemed as confident as Cox of his return. “I can’t say I felt that way the day after surgery. But as time has gone by, I certainly have grown in my confidence.”

Smoltz and left-hander Tom Glavine are fortysomething free agents trying to rebound from surgeries (Glavine, elbow and shoulder).

Braves general manager Frank Wren said he can’t count on either to make it back in 2009, but hopes to offer both of them contracts if and when they get to the point in their throwing programs where it seems like they would be ready to pitch.

Glavine was encouraged by long-toss sessions Wednesday and Friday, the 305-game winner’s first times throwing since Aug. 21 procedures to repair a torn flexor tendon and clean out his shoulder.

He’s also ahead of schedule in his throwing program, but not yet far enough for such optimism as Smoltz provided Friday.

Smoltz, the only pitcher with 200 wins and 150 saves, would likely be elected to the Hall of Fame if he never pitched another inning.



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Saturday, December 06, 2008

Dreaming of the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List

Are you shopping around for the ultimate gifts to buy the fantasy baseball lover in your life? Or perhaps you just want to give your loved ones the ultimate list of gift ideas. If so then look no further than this very blog post. This giant article lists every thing the fantasy baseball needs to participate and excel in the ultimate optimum dream world. (Amazon Links - just in case you're tempted)

The HARDWARE
We are dreaming here, right? That means there is no budget or real life situations to concern us. Since that is the case I will be listing every piece of hardware I would love to have for fantasy baseball purposes.

The Ultimate Laptop: HP Pavilion TX2510US 12.1-inch Laptop Black
This thing is so hot. It has great specs (2.10 GHz AMD Turion X2 ZM-80 Processor, 3 GB RAM, 250 GB Hard Drive, DVD Drive, Vista Premium) and great features. The thing I love most about it is that widescreen rotating touch screen. Man! that is beautiful. I make out great with my refurbished Think Pad but if money were no object, this would be my machine.



The Ultimate All-In-One Printer/Scanner: Canon Pixma MX700 Office All-On-One Inkjet Printer (2186B002)
Even with the ultimate laptop to take to your live drafts and auctions, you'll need a printer to print your emergency back-up lists (I've mentioned how important that is haven't I). This is one of the better ones and it isn't even all that expensive.



The Ultimate Cell Phone: The iPhone 3G
I've been dreaming about an iphone since I first heard the rumors. Unfortunately it just hasn't been possible with my non-existent budget. Like the HP it's all about the touchscreen. Other cell phones have touchscreens but they don't come close to the iphone's. For the ultimate fantasy baseball guy, constant access to the internet whether on the bus or on the can at work (courtesy flush please) is a real desire (and if you're the adventurous type you can use the iphone to connect your laptop to the internet). If you already have an iphone, check out this great selection of iphone accessories - I'll take that leather case, please.

The Ultimate Flat Screen HDTV Monitor: LG 42LG30 42-Inch 720p LCD HDTV
What is the point of watching your players in action if you aren't watching them in HD? I love the LG brand and this model has a fantastic price when you buy it through amazon.



The SUBSCRIPTIONS

The 2009 MLB.tv Season Package

Watch all of the out of market games from anywhere you can access the internet. This service has improved in leaps and bounds the last couple of seasons and I couldn't live without it. I would die for the person that got me this subscription. This includes over 2400 possible games and even 100 spring training games (when fantasy baseball scouting is at its height).

Scout.com Annual Total Access Pass
This is the best site on the planet for the very serious sports fan. For the fantasy baseball fan it is almost without par. It includes access to teams of scouts for every MLB, NLF, NCAA, and NBA team. Link your subscription to your favorite team and you'll also get a year-long subscription to your team's official magazine. Winter leagues, fall leagues, spring training, minor leagues - it is all covered. Believe me, you won't miss a thing with this site in your pocket.

The Baseball Prospectus Gift Subscription
Baseball Prospectus covers every aspect of the game from the minors to ownership issues. You also get the articles of the best baseball injury analyst in the business, Will Carroll. This site does some fantasy stuff but the real reason to subscribe is because they give you the all important context you need to understand baseball organizations and the way they think. It's relatively cheap too.

Gold Subscription to BaseballHQ.com: Fantasy Baseball Intelligence for Winners
This service is not cheap but it is the best in the business. Ron Shandler is the expert's expert. He has changed the way that smart people study baseball and he did it through our game. There is no aspect of this hobby that this subscription doesn't help you understand - from cheatsheets and draft software to contact rates and the LIMA plan. A MUST HAVE

The BOOKS

Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season
A preseason look at all of the moves and all of the players that will shape each organization in 2009. This is like a 1000-page fantasy baseball magazine. By March 1st, I feel lost without it.



The 2009 John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book
John Sickels is one of the best minor league analysts in the business. His book includes extensive lists on all of the prospects with a letter grade to help you easily understand their level of talent.

Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook: The Comprehensive Guide to Rising Stars
Baseball America is the definitive source of minor league and prospect information for almost the entire baseball industry. They lean heavily to the scouting side of things which is why you also need more numbers oriented evaluations like those you get from John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus.



Ron Shandler's 2009 Baseball Forecaster

The annual publication that supplements the website. This has all the player stats and strategy tips you need to excel every season. When you buy the book you also get free updates from the HQ website.



Art McGee's How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball
One of the most valuable skills that the fantasy baseball owner can learn is to value his own players. Every league is unique, so the better you understand your league the more accurately you can value players. This book will help you do just that. A classic that should be in every fantasy fan's library.



The ACCESORIES

Laptop Carrying Case: Timbuk2 264-X-570 - Ballistic Commute Laptop Messenger Bag in Black
This is a great gift idea all by itself. It will hold everything, the laptop, your lunch and cheatsheets that you will need at your fantasy draft. Not to mention its pratical everyday uses. I already have one.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Software: Roto Lab
There are many different options out there when it comes to draft software. Roto Lab is the standard they all aspire to reach. This software will cheap track of every team's budget and players and even recommend players and auction values that change based on your draft's inflation on draft day. If you a subscription to Baseball HQ you can qualify for a discount on this software. A MUST HAVE

FUN STUFF

Baseball Jersey: Birmingham Black Barons Pro Jersey

I love those vintage jersey's and they even come in huge sizes for big guys like me. If the old school stuff isn't for you a MLB replica of your favorite player's jersey works. Hey, you have to look cool at the draft.



And the Matching Cap: Birmingham Black Barons Fitted Cap

No point in wearing a jersey if you don't have a lid to go with it...



That was tons of fun for me. If only Santa Claus would deliver. What's on your Ultimate Gift List?


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Friday, December 05, 2008

Scouting the Dominican Republic


I am one of those fantasy baseball guys that loves to study prospects. Nothing makes me happier (and increases my hat size) more than having identified players like Jose Reyes, Nate McLouth, and Mike Piazza before anyone else in my leagues. If you are a similar sort than you need to read this series of articles by Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It follows Rene Gayo, Latin American scouting director for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It explores the entire process of scouting and signing international prospects. This is a MUST READ.

Part One: A young Dominican out duels peers who play baseball 'for food'


Part Two: New academy just one part of building talent pool

Part Three: Gayo's focus is on finding talent, but he must battle emotions in process


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Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey


There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

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Thursday, December 04, 2008

Sleeper Alert: Khalil Greene


I posted my thoughts on shortstop Khalil Greene's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals from the San Diego Padres today on the RotoExperts.com fantasy baseball blog. It is my intention that anyone who reads this blog not miss any tidbits I might have to offer. I say this so you'll know that the many links to that site aren't purely marketing related. I get nothing for sending people to that blog or to the RotoExperts.com. I just happen to write for it and believe that it is well worth reading.

Anyway, I think Khalil Greene is a great addition for the Cardinals and he should dramatically improve his fantasy value this season. Here is a clip and a link if you are inclined to read the entire post:
Khalil has a career BABIP of .285 while the average BABIP is closer to .300. He has a career LD percentage of 19.5, which is not spectacular but certainly solid. His career FB percentage 45.8 should also indicate some solid production with a power hitter like Khalil. But Petco seems to have tanked his HR/FB to a disappointing 9.6 percent. Just for comparison’s sake, J.J. Hardy has a just a 37.9 FB percentage but a career 11.9 HR/FB percentage (14.1 percent in 2008). A “normal” HR/FB percentage is around 11 percent. Busch Stadium (still a slight pitchers’ park with its Park Factor of .943 runs) is going to seem like a Little League field to Khalil in 2009.



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Wednesday, December 03, 2008

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade


There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:
Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.
If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs
(remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).


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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.


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Monday, December 01, 2008

Would You Draft Phil Hughes


After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.
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Saturday, November 29, 2008

2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria

To Have a Great Hot Stove Season

Head over to the RotoExperts.com baseball blog for my article on how to have a great hot stove season.

Reflect on last season

This very valuable step is often missed, especially when your fantasy baseball season ended in frustration. By looking back we can uncover where we went wrong. Did we take too many chances at the draft? Have you become predictable? Was that drunken Fourth of July trade you made with your weasel of a cousin a bad idea? Did you dump CC Sabathia on some “sucker” after his second terrible start in April? Making these self-evaluations, we can stop ourselves from making the same mistakes again.

We should also take the time to study our rivals. How did your league champion win? Does he make amazing trades? Did he rebuild for two years? Maybe your rival has a weakness for players on the Boston Red Sox that you can exploit. Does he have what looks like an unbeatable collection of young stars he can keep? Perhaps he exploited a loophole in the rules. We need to know our rivals as well as ourselves.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Favorite Statistical Sources

Everyday there is another great site pops up that presents the baseball team and player statistics. The sites linked below are my favorites. They are not only great, they are free, so please support them in whatever fashion possible.

TheBaseballCube.com
When I want to get a quick sense of a player thebaseballcube.com is the first place I go. Not only do I get the basic stats that count for fantasy but key bits of information such as birthdate, age at each level, college stats, honors and awards that have been granted the player and a bunch more.

FanGraphs.com
When I need to understand where a player is going statistically or when I want to know why they rose or fell, this is the site I check. Fangraphs has tons of great stats that you rarely find on other sites - wOBA, IFFB percentage, HR/FB, IFH%, WPA and tons more. Plus, this site has a great blog that Dave Cameron --one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet -- contributes to frequently.

HardBallTimes.com
Sometimes I just need someone else to do the heavy lifting for a whilw and that means a trip to hardballtimes.com is in my future. Everything is here -- the news, the stats, the analysis, the fantasy spins, and the great reads. These guys also produce one of the very best baseball annuals in the business. Their annual has everything that the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Baseball Forecaster are always missing.

FirstInning.com

When I need to study a prospect there is only one source for advanced stats (that won't cost you an arm and a first born) and that is FirstInning.com. All of the stats you want when you're studying up on major leaguers are here for minor leaguers. Plus - prospect lists, charts, graphs, park factors, league factors -- everything you need to seriously examine prospects is here.


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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Thanksgiving Hot Stove

This is not shaping up as a good off-season for my fantasy teams. Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) was a big part of my 13 team NL-only league. Holliday, of course, was dealt to the American League dwelling Oakland Athletics. That same team included Chase Utley (2B, PHI), about to have surgery on his hip. The best-case scenario for Utley seems to be the shaving of a few bone spurs and a rehab process that would keep him inactive for most of Sprint Training. The worst case would involve serious repairs and a prayer for a return in July. In addition, as you have probably guessed, that same NL-only squad features Chad Billingsley (RHP, LAD), who slipped on some ice and broke his fibula on Friday. Billingsley should be ready for the start of Spring Training but my plans to trade him are crumbling. I hope that your off-season is going better than mine is.

Hot Stove Report

The Braves Claim a LOOGY

The Atlanta Braves claimed Eric O'Flaherty (LHP, ATL) off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. O'Flaherty has some potential as a bullpen lefty. He is a groundball specialist who has shown strikeout potential in the minors but has fooled no one in his brief stints in the majors. He will not be in the closer mix so his fantasy value is zero (if not less than that).

The Phillies Trade Tools for Power

The Phillies traded their most advanced outfield prospect, Greg Golson (OF, PHI), for John Mayberry Jr. (OF, TEX), the Rangers power hitting prospect. Golson has all of the baseball tools. Unfortunately, he has demonstrated few of the baseball skills the Phillies expected their former first round pick to develop, especially plate discipline. It is worth noting that the Rangers have shown a remarkable ability to turn disappointing outfield prospects into productive major leaguers the last few years. Golson's ability to play center field gives him a chance to make the Rangers as a reserve if they trade Marlon Byrd (OF, TEX) as rumored. Golson should be watched carefully in Spring Training.

John Mayberry has gone backwards as a prospect. He has traded walks for a more aggressive approach at the plate, which has resulted in more homeruns but not much else of value. The Phillies do need a power hitting left fielder if Pat Burrell (OF, FA) leaves via free agency. This is a situation worth watching. If the Phillies are unable to sign a big name outfielder Mayberry could become a serious option.

The Red Sox Strengthen their Bullpen

The Red Sox traded Coco Crisp (OF, KC) to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez (RHP, BOS). Ramirez is a good relief pitcher. If Ramirez improved his walk-rate (3.89 in 2008) he could be a potential closer. He has held opponents to a .235 batting average in his career and just .220 in 2008. He also collects about a strikeout per inning. The seventh and eight innings were a problem at times for the Red Sox last season, Ramirez shores that up nicely. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners, Ramirez is probably third or fourth in line for saves behind Jon Papelbon (RHP, BOS).

The Royals Acquire Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp had some horrible luck while in Boston. He broke his wrist, suffered a separate hand injury amid a series of other minor but aggravating maladies, and lost his job to a much-hyped prospect. Here is an early Big Fat Claim: Coco Crisp will regain all of the power he seemed to lose as a Red Sox with the Royals. Barring any bad news, he will be coming into this season completely healthy, with a full time job for the first time in three years.

Billy Beane Signs a Reliever

The Oakland Athletics signed Chris Schroder (RHP, OAK) formerly of the Washington Nationals to a one-year contract. Schroder has little chance of making the major league team but Billy Beane sees something in him so this transaction is worth noting. What Beane sees is a mystery to me. He does not get groundballs, he walks too many batters, and he allows too many homeruns. Gasp! Perhaps Billy Beane signed a player based on his scouting report rather than his stats. Schroder was once considered a future closer by the Expos/Nationals. Nah, it couldn't be that.

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent Ian Ostland (LHP, StL) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers' minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

The Cubs Re-Sign Ryan Dempster

The Chicago Cubs re-signed starter Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) to a four-year, $52 million contract. Dempster may have gotten a little lucky in 2008 but there are no glaring flukes in his stats. He is a groundball pitcher that gets a little less than a strikeout per inning, which is the formula for a great starter. If his walk-rate goes back to normal and his HR/FB (which was a very low 7.7 percent) returns to his career average of 11.1 percent, we could see some regression but not enough to rob him of all his value. If I owned him, I would be holding him.

The Orioles Sign Some Spare Parts

The Baltimore Orioles signed Brad Hennessey (RHP, BAL) and Donnie Murphy (INF, BAL) to minor league contracts and invited them to Spring Training. Hennessey is a terrible pitcher. His pathetic K/9 is only slightly higher than his bloated walk-rate. In 2008, he even reversed his GB/FB trends and allowed significantly more fly balls than grounders. He allows too many homers. He is also moving to a far worse park and league for pitchers. Hennessey should not be a fantasy consideration.

Donnie Murphy is a linedrive hitter considered a top prospect at times in his career. Unfortunately, he has never put together a season worthy of such a designation. His biggest problem is making good contact. He struck out almost 37 percent of the time during the 2008 season. His power is good but he does not hit enough flyballs to be a big homerun hitter. For the Orioles, Murphy is only an option as a utility player unless we see Brian Roberts (2B, BAL) traded.

The Giants Get Some Relief

The San Francisco Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt (LHP, SF) to a two-year $8 million contract. Affeldt was a top prospect of the Kansas City Royals who failed as a starting pitcher. He seemed to be failing as a reliever too until something seemed to click for him last season with the Cincinnati Reds. His fastball velocity made a significant jump and his strikeout rate made a corresponding leap. His walk rate also improved significantly. Affeldt has always been an extreme groundball pitcher and was even more so in 2008. Now Affeldt is moving from the hitters' haven of Cincinnati to one of the league's better pitcher's parks in San Francisco. It also does not hurt that the Giants have been obsessed with defense the last few years. If Affeldt's improvements are real (and there is little to say they are not) he should excel for the San Francisco Giants in 2009. Fantasy owners in deep leagues should be paying very close attention.

Washington Adds options at First Base

The Washington Nationals signed 1B/3B Matt Whitney (formerly of the Cleveland Indians) to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. The Nationals selected Whitney in the Rule V draft in 2007 but had to return him to the Indians after a poor Spring Training, so they obviously like him.

Whitney was a top batting prospect until he suffered a major leg injury in 2003. This cost him the next three seasons of his career so he lacks the at-bats you might expect a 25-year old minor leaguer to have collected after six years in the minors. In an attempt to take more walks and improve his on-base percentage, Whitney robbed himself of some power last season. However, he was successful at improving his walk-rate (11.3 percent) and if he can keep his gains and regain his power stroke he could be a stud in the making. The Nationals have some of the best talent evaluators in the game, and they believe he can do it. Whitney is someone to watch this spring.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving! May the football, turkey, and booze be everlasting. JonWilliams@RotoExperts.com
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Vote for the Next Fantasy Baseball Stud

Who is the next Fantasy Baseball Stud?

An early look at the biggest risers in fantasy baseball drafts.

The 2008 season saw the rise of several young players. Which one is your favorite for fantasy baseball dominance?
Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
B.J. Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays
Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays
Joakim Soria RP Kansas City Royals
Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds
Alexei Ramirez 2B/SS Chicago White Sox
Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston Red Sox
Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Other - Please Comment Below

View Results

Create your own myspace poll

Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Cardinals Steal Some F.A.T.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed free agent lefty Ian Ostland to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Ostland had some fantastic indicators in the Tigers’ minor league system. Because of his age, Ostland is not a prospect but his numbers are too good to ignore. Players like this become quality cheap relievers for smart teams. In 2008 is K/BB ratio was an impressive 4.53. His .319 BABIP indicates he was probably unlucky last season. The Cardinals are a great team for a guy like this. The Cards have a ton of uncertainty in their bullpen (including the closer role), LaDuncan has made a habit of turning older players and failed prospects into valuable parts and based on stats Ostland is as good as any of them. Owners in deep leagues must pay attention this spring.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Hot Stove Junkie
























I blew up another computer last week and that's the reason for the sporadic posting. Hopefully I'll be back in prime blogging action tonight. For now you can satisfy your Jones for off season fantasy baseball articles by checking out my latest piece for RotoExperts.com, Hot Stove Junkie!

This is not a great trade for the Rockies. Greg Smith does not strikeout batters (5.25 K/9) and does not have good control (4.11 BB/9). This is a mortal combination in the thin air of Colorado. He also allows tons of fly balls (45.5 percent) and very few grounders (34.2). Avoid Smith in your fantasy drafts, as if he was the plague.

Huston Street is a competent reliever. However, he is another fly ball pitcher heading to Colorado. Street could retain competency due to his very good strikeout rate (9.07 K/9) but he will have to improve his platoon splits if he hopes to become their closer.

Carlos Gonzalez has all the tools and scouts drool over his potential. What the Athletics found out is that it may be awhile before he actually becomes a solid major league player offensively. Fortunately, for fantasy owners, the thin air has a way of speeding up the development process when it comes to batters.

Vote for Dave Cameron!

Dave Cameron is one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet and he is up for a blogger scholarship. Let's help him get it! Vote Here!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Strategies That Don't Work

All of the strategies listed below have been successful in the past. I am not labeling these strategies as terrible but rather as dated. In long running leagues (epecially keeper leagues) with experienced, savy ownership the use, or attempted use of these strategies will not only bring you frustration but also an unsuccessful season. This is because the experienced fantasy owner studies the strategies of his opponents and shapes his own strategy to ensure the disruption of his rival's plans and the furtherance of his own. To help you counter these obstacles I've provided you with three things:

1. A description of the dated strategy and how it was supposed to work.
2. The methods your opponent can use to disrupt the strategy.
3. An alternative way to re-shape the strategy to make it workable again.

The L.I.M.A. Plan

The LIMA plan was a great strategy for a while. Ron Shandler created the LIMA plan but in reality there were lots of great players employing similar strategies for years before Ron popularized it. LIMA, stands for Low Investment Mound Aces. The idea was that in a typical 12 team, 4x4, only-league with a $260 budget you couldspend $200 to build a top ranked offense and devote just sixty dollars to your pitching staff with no more than half of that budget spent on saves. You would select the pitchers you purchased from a very select group that met certain criteria:

• K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better
• HR/9 of 1.0 or less
• K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better
At the core of the strategy was one of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball - Draft skills, not roles. Using this strategy allowed you to draft the best pitchers in the game before they became the expensive closers and starters that so many owners were spending so much of their budgets to acquire.

This plan was a huge smash and it quickly became all the rage in fantasy leagues, which is also when it became almost useless. With everyone chasing the same group of pitchers the untouted starters and middle relievers that were once atainable for $3-5 were now costing well into the double digits. Even owners who were not strictly using the strategy knew to bid up the owners utilizing the LIMA plan (which if you knew the plan was very easy to spot).

Even Ron Shandler has moved on from using the LIMA plan. There are ways to make the LIMA play workable if you are determined to use a version of it. One very simple way is to increase the budget allocated to pitching to an amount that allows you to draft a nice collection of the better LIMA pitchers but not so much that it seriously diminishes your offense. Another method is to add an Ace Pitcher (one that meets the LIMA criteria of course) to the mix. Adding an ace will not only (in theory) increase your pitching points but it will also throw your competitors off the scent when it comes to guessing your strategy.

Stars and Scrubs

This strategy has been around for almost as long as fantasy baseball has been played and there are several variations. The object of the strategy is to buy as many top tier stars as possible (both hitters and pitchers) until you only have one dollar left for each of your remaining roster spots. The idea is that a large collection of stars will carry your roster and that your scrubs give you the opportunity to get lucky.

The strategy gets beat all hollow when your opponents bid up the better scrubs and leave you with the true dregs of the league. The strategy also requires you to get lucky with both the emergence of scrubs and the continued health of your stars. The tougher your league the more difficult it is to recover from the loss of your $40 stud hitter or $25 ace starter or closer. This is also a very dangerous strategy for the novice owner to use, especially in a league full of sharks.

The plan can be salvaged by reserving enough of your budget to allocate $2-5 on those last few roster spots. Another variation is to buy just one stud per position. In other words one stud catcher, one stud corner, one stud infielder, a stud outfielder or two, an ace starter, and a top closer. If done carefully this can be done with plenty of money left to fill your other spots.

Spread the Risk

This strategy attempts to do exactly what its name says it will. In this strategy the owner will spend no more than $30 on any player. This way the owner can afford to buy lots of talent and will not need to roster many (if any) scrubs. If used intelligently this plan ensures that the owner will have a deep, balanced roster. This protects the owner from injury problems and slumping superstars.

The problem with this method is that it is very league dependent. Every league is different and some will pay different prices for certain types of players. Anyone who has ever opened a fantasy guide and scoffed at the idea of players being bought for mid-teen prices when in your league these guys go for $25-30 already know the problem. If mid-tier guys are selling for $25-30, then the true superstuds are going for just $35-40. Thus cutting off your bidding at $30 also cuts you off from all of the best quality talent.

You can use a version of this plan if you are very familiar with the spending habits of your fellow owners and you are confident in your ability to adjust your spending on the fly. The important thing is to getyour fair share of the available talent.

Punting Categories

By sacrificing a roto category such as saves or steals, the owner hopes to use the money budgeted to those categories to dominate the other ones. In the vast majority of cases the owner chooses saves, because closers are often overpriced contribute to fewer categories than starters and middle relievers.

This strategy often fails because the owners who utilize it dump the category during the draft and fail to collect enough points in the other categories to win their leagues, though it is very good at placing owners within striking distance.

Making punting a useful strategy is very simple. Rather than dump a category for the entire season, just dump it at the draft. After the draft the owner should use every available resource to find the stats he ignored during the draft. By constantly monitoring the waiver wire and taking advantage of trade opportunities its possible to do quite well in the neglected category and thus have a shot at winning the league.

One Dollar Catchers

A very common strategy in fantasy baseball drafts is too ignore the more expensive catchers in favor of drafting two $1 catchers (or waiting until the end of the draft) that receive very few at-bats. The idea behind the strategy is that so few catchers are productive (and usually even the productive ones do not compare to the comparably priced outfielders or corner infielders) that the money it takes to buy the very best at the position is better spent on more productive players at other positions. And further that with not enough catchers to go around very few of the other teams would have strong catching anyway.

While it sounds okay, essentially dumping the catching positions, it creates two holes in your fantasy lineup. The owner with strong hitting from the catcher spots has an offensive advantage that can often make a huge difference in the final standings.

Very carefully scouting catchers can usually uncover productive catchers for bargain prices. last season Ryan Doumit and Kelly Shoppach were draft day bargains that carefully scouting may have revealed. This season Jesus Flores and Pablo Sandoval may be huge bargains at the catcher position. MLB always puts added focus on weak positions which ensures that eventually the development cycle will result in a better crop of catchers.

NEXT: On Sunday read why Buying Low and Selling High is not as simple as it sounds.

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Friday, November 14, 2008

FSIC American League Draft Order

Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be drafting from the eighth spot in the American League Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge. Here is the whole draft order with the other competitors listed.

1Fantasy Baseball Dugout
2The Fantasy Man
3Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
4Rotohelp
5Sporting News
6ProFantasy Baseball
7Roto Central
8Advanced Fantasy Baseball
9Fantasy Sports R Us
10BBall Deluxe
11Open Team
12Fanball

I'm glad to see that there are some great sites competing. We all know how boring it get when the competition is not up to the challenge.

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Nick Swisher Joins the Yankees

Check out my RotoExperts.com blog for the fantasy spin on Nick Swisher joining the New York Yankees.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday, center fielder and first baseman Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the New York Yankees for utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.
Check in late tonight (maybe the morning) for a article on Fantasy Baseball Strategies.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Hot Stove Junkie

Hey peoples.

I have a new off season baseball column at RotoExperts, Hot Stove Junkie, featuring weekly fantasy spins on all the Hot Stove Transactions --from the biggest trades to the most obscure waiver pick ups. Check it out by clicking on the title link above.

I've also accepted an invitation to appear in the The Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge, where I've been given a seat in the American League.

I've also been blogging for RotoExperts. My first few posts are on Matt Holliday and the Nationals trade.

And just in case you were wondering... This site is about to explodein production. It will now feature daily posts. Most posts will be of the quick hits variety but every Friday and Sunday you'll find expansive articles exploring the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball and this is just the beginning.

Don't forget to subscribe to our RSS feed. If you aren't familiar with RSS check out the fantastic Google Reader and believe me you will be hooked. It revolutionizes blog reading.


Sunday, November 02, 2008

New Situation: Mike Jacobs - Traded


Traded Player: Mike Jacobs

Old Team: Florida Marlins
New Team: Kansas City Royals

Background: As a 38th-round pick by the Mets in 1999 out of Grossmont (California) Junior College, Mike Jacobs was always an unlikely major league star. Jacobs received a chance at big league at-bats after a trade from the New York Mets to the Florida Marlins as part of the exchange for superstar slugger Carlos Delgado.

What the Scouts Say: Jacobs has hit 80 home runs and slugged .498 in four big league seasons making him a major power source for the often cash-strapped Marlins. As a Marlin, he has just a .318 on-base percentage. He cannot hit lefties (.235/.275/.414 versus them in 338 career plate appearances) but is acceptable against righties (.257 average and .315 on-base percentage in 2008). He is not much of a base runner and is below average defensively at first base.

What the Stat Guys Say: Sabermetricians will question why the Royals, who presently hold the rights to a wide variety of cheap alternatives at the first base and designated hitter spots, would spend their assets (even one as limited in ceiling as Leo Nunez) for a player that isn’t very good and not much of an improvement over players already on the forty-man roster. Kila Ka'aihue had a nice season at triple-A but needs to demonstrate that he has actually made a step up in performance level before the Royals can commit to him at the major league level. Ryan Shealy is now 30 years old and has yet to perform in the major leagues on a consistent basis. Counting on either of those players to outplay Jacobs would be a lousy bet. Billy Butler has been highly touted but has yet to perform in the majors and is not a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Jacobs hits fly balls and line drives at good rates for a power hitter. His BABIP suggests that he was unlucky last season (.264 in 2008 compared to his career rate of .292) and indicates that he could rebound slightly even though moving to the tougher American League.

Fantasy Outlook: Look for the Royals to platoon Jacobs in the lineup with right-handed first baseman Ryan Shealy to maximize their production at first base. As the left-handed batter in the platoon, he should see enough at-bats to be an asset to fantasy teams. Do not be surprised if the platoon is not a conventional one. For defensive reasons Jacobs may appear as the designated hitter in order to get top prospect (and equally poor on defense) Billy Butler some games in the field. Fantasy leaguers can expect solid power and a just barely acceptable average from Jacobs in 2009.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Brett Farve to Vikings

Once again Brett Farve is not going to be a part of the Green Bay Packers' offense. They must really have a lot of faith in Aaron Rodgers. Almost makes you want to bump him up your rankings... Rumors are pointing towards a trade to the Vikings.



From FootballGuys.com:
Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reports that QB Brett Favre is less likely to return to Green Bay. In Monday's meeting between Favre, GM Ted Thompson and HC Mike McCarthy, Favre insisted he wanted to do what is best for the team and the locker room and did not want to become more of a distraction. That also included canceling any kind of quarterback competition, meaning Aaron Rodgers will remain the starter. Favre did maintain his desire to play, and play within the division, but the Packers are scratching to find another solution. The two sides will meet again today.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Check Out RotoExperts.com

Head over to RotoExperts and read the latest edition of Moving Up, Moving Down. Here's a brief excerpt from last week's column:



It was not exactly an intervention. It was more like a State of the Union address, though instead of telling Congress what they wanted to hear, I was giving the members of my various fantasy squads a chance to praise, criticize, and berate each other as well as me. I have to admit, it's much more fun that way. A quick look around the room assured me that everyone I had invited (and a few I had made a point of not inviting) had arrived.
Robinson Cano
Robinson is part of the red hot Yankees. Photo Credit: DANNYWILD

Just as I was about to get things started one of those uninvited guests made a beeline to the podium. It was Robinson Cano, and he had a very smug look on his face.

“Hah! You told people to dump me but I’m having a great second half!”

“Congratulations Robbie. I’m very happy to have been wrong about you.”

“Why, I’m not on any of your teams. You know, since the All-Star break I’m batting .514 with three home runs and ten RBI.”


Jon: "Yes, Robbie. I was clearly wrong to suggest people dump you.”