2008-09 MLB's Non-Tendered Free Agents

There are a lot of interesting names among the non-tendered free agents this year. On the surface it may seem that this list of names is irrelevant to fantasy league owners but that assumption would be very wrong. This is about the all important context. If a team essentially cuts players from their starting lineup than other players will be replacing them. The owner that identifies that replacement soonest gains an advantage over his leaguemates. In the article below I've listed all of the non-tendered free agents and commented where I think the possibilities are interesting.

Astros - Ty Wigginton, 3B; Reggie Abercrombie OF
Ty Wigginton would be a solid addition to most lineups. He can play first base or third base and even second base or a corner outfield position in a pinch. He has a few on-base skills and hits for power. Wigginton was let go because the Astros felt they could not afford to keep him. The 2008 season was the best of Wigginton's career despite only 386 at-bats. The Astros do not appear to have a ready replacement for Wigginton. One possibility would be thuggles e early promotion of third-base prospect Chris Johnson. Johnson is smooth defensively but still has some developing to do at the plate. He makes very good contact and has 25-homer power but tends to wait for the fastball and struggles when pitchers don't oblige him.

Reggie Abercrombie is expected to a sign a minor league deal with the Astros and return for the 2009 season.

Braves - Chuck James, LHP
Chuck James was once very highly rated as a Braves pitching prospect but upon his graduation to the majors his K/9 took a significant dip even as his BB/9 rose. James suffered an elbow injury that will almost certainly cause him to miss the 2009 season. The Braves will attempt to sign him to a minor league contract.

The Braves have been determined to add frontline pitching talent to their 2009 rotation. They have already traded for veteran innings eater Javier Vazquez. They made a strong attempt to trade for Jake Peavy but understandably the Padres expectations were extremely high. The Braves also made a very serious bid to acquire pitcher A.J. Burnett who signed with the New York Yankees instead.

It is obvious the Braves intend to add another veteran pitcher to their rotation. If the remaining free agent options do not appeal to them they could return to trade possibilities. Jake Peavy is still an option and the price will come down as the Padres get more desperate to complete a deal.

Brewers - Chris Capuano, LHP
Chris Capuano missed the entire 2008 season after suffering an elbow injury. He eventually had to endure his second Tommy John Elbow Surgery. The Brewers have been involved in his rehab and are hoping to re-sign Capuano to a minor league deal.

Cardinals - Randy Flores, LHP; Tyler Johnson, LHP; Aaron Miles, 2B
The St. Louis Cardinals should be able to find better players than this group in theor sleep. Tony LaRussa has stated a few times this off season that he believes there is a valuable intimidation factor to having big name players in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

Diamondbacks - Chris Burke, INF; Robby Hammock, C; Wil Ledezma, LHP; Jeff Salazar, OF
The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed Felipe Lopez to replace departing second baseman Orlando Hudson. Chris Burke was once thought to be Hudson's potential replacement but he has been just barely above useless as a Diamondback.

Dodgers - Mario Alvarez, RHP; Angel Berroa, SS; Yhency Brazoban, RHP; Scott Proctor, RHP; Takashi Saito, RHP
With Jonathan Broxton established in the closer role the Dodgers saw little need to bring back Takashi Saito. Saito missed a large portion of the season with an elbow injury and was due to gain a significant raise in salary. Saito has been an effective closer in his short major league career. He has the high strikeout rate (11.63), the low walk rate (2.47). He doesn't allow many homeruns (0.43 HR/9) thanks in part to his good groundball rate (42 percent). Saito, if healthy, should be a bargain closer option for some team in 2009.

Mariners - Jamie Burke, C

Marlins - Joe Nelson, RHP

Nationals - Tim Redding, RHP
The Nationals tried very hard to trade Tim Redding but they either set the price too high or it was obvious to other teams that he would eventually be non-tendered. Redding is a very replaceable pitcher and the Nationals just did not want to guve him a raise. The Nationals still need every capable arm they can find so it would not be shocking to see them try to bring Redding back at a discount.

Orioles - Daniel Cabrera, RHP; Lance Cormier RHP
Daniel Cabrera has great stuff. Despite terrible control he tends to induce groundballs. prior to the 2008 season he was a good strikeout pitcher as well. His walk rate (although still extremely high) has gone down three years in a row. It is very easy to speculate that Cabrera's attempts to bring the walks under control cost him in strikeouts. The Orioles were not willing to give him a raise while still unsatisfied with the now 27-year old starter. I think he would make a dynamic relief pitcher. Some team will give him a job in the bullpen this season and a sleeper will be born.

Padres - Clay Hensley, RHP; Charlie Haeger, RHP

Phillies - Scott Mathieson, RHP

Pirates - Denny Bautista, RHP

Rangers - Doug Mathis, RHP

Rays - Jonny Gomes, OF
If if there is a non-tendered free agent with the ability to turn into the next David Ortiz, it is Jonny Gomes. He has extremely good power. He strikes out a lot but he also draws a good number of walks. He hits flyballs and linedrives like crazy. He was also unlucky last season with just a .200 BABIP in 2008 compared to a career average of .294. If Gomes lands on the right team in the right role he will explode in production. The Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners would all be great places for him to land.

Red Sox - Kevin Cash, C

Rockies - Jonathan Herrera, IF; Willy Taveras, OF
Willy Taveras is not an amazing player but he has a few very useful skills. He plays a solid center field (he makes a lot of mistakes but his speed makes up for many of them). He hits the ball on the ground which gives him the best chance to utilize his speed to get on base. He also is a very good base stealer (he is successful in about 80 percent of his attempts). These are skills that many teams could use.

The Rockies tried to trade Taveras but too many teams were correctly convinced that the Rockies would eventually non-tender him. The Rockies will turn to the newly acquired Carlos Gonzalez in center field and hope that he develops faster for them than he did with the Oakland athletics. The Rockies have a deep collection of outfielders coming through the system and infielders that will probably need to be moved. Dexter Fowler and Eric Young are two that should excel and take two spots in the outfield before the end of the 2009 season.

Royals - John Bale, LHP; Jairo Cuevas, RHP; Joey Gathright, OF; Jason Smith, IF

Yankees - Chris Britton, RHP; Justin Christian, OF

More Hot Stove Free-Agent Signings

The Yankees have reached an agreement with RHP A.J. Burnett and the Indians have all but signed closer Kerry Wood. You can read my complete analysis of those pitchers on the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog.

The New York Yankees Sign A.J. Burnett
As a New York Yankees fan I'm not all that enamored of the much rumored plan the Yankees have to sign three free agent starters.The plan forces Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Ian Kennedy out of the rotation to begin the 2009 season. This seems like the wrong move to me. Signing CC Sabathia was a necessity for the Yankees. They needed that intimidating starter to place at the head of their rotation. I can even understand the second free agent pitcher so that the young guys are not just given a job and will instead have to fight for it. But to sign a third and probably older starter and seemingly give up on the youth movement is just not good team building.
The Tribe Inches Closer to Closer Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood took a physical for the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Assuming that Wood passed he would soon sign a contract with the Indians expected to be for two years and $20 million. Wood stayed relatively healthy last season as the Cubs closer and was also very effective in the role. He converted 34 of 40 save opportunities while providing the Cubs with 66 and 1/3 innings. He struck out out 84 and walked just 18 batters. He is moving to the tougher league but this generally has a greater effect on starters than relievers.

2008 Team Defensive Ranking by UZR

The chart below is a ranking of every Major League Baseball team by UZR. UZR is one of the best statistical measurements of defense yet created. Please note however that defense statistics stil have a long way to go. Still, examining this chart and ones like it that you can find on sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and others when your ranking your potential pitching selections can be quite valuable when it comes to guessing on potential breakouts and sleepers.

A team that has dramatically improved it's defense is more likely to findpitching breakouts than the other way around. For those of you unfamiliar with UZR I've borrowed a description from Baseball Think Factory (this link is a good one to read) :

UZR rate is expressed as a fraction of 1, the same as a simple ZR (ZR). A UZR rate means essentially the same thing as a simple ZR � namely the number of balls fielded (turned into at least one out) divided by the number of chances; however, UZR rate is a weighted average of a player�s ZR in each of several zones.

As you will see, UZR rate is really a by-product of UZR runs, and UZR runs is the heart of the UZR system. It represents the value of a fielder�s performance expressed as runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder (actually in comparison to the mean performance of all fielders) at that position, in that player�s league, and during that particular year. UZR runs is the defensive counterpart of Palmer�s offensive linear weights (lwts); thus it can be combined with lwts (among other things) to give you an estimate of a player�s total offensive and defensive value. Any player with an average defensive performance will, by definition, have exactly zero UZR runs.

Team	G	E	DP	FP	UZR
Rays	2080	90	429	0.985	70.6
Phillies	2181	90	380	0.985	48.5
Red Sox	2146	85	399	0.986	44.3
Athletics	2126	98	467	0.984	31.5
Astros	2125	67	379	0.989	30.8
Cardinals	2297	85	430	0.986	30.4
Nationals	2160	123	387	0.98	29.1
Brewers	2002	101	425	0.984	21.7
Giants	2216	96	341	0.984	21.3
Royals	2124	96	431	0.984	19.2
Blue Jays	2042	84	366	0.986	19
Mets	2194	83	344	0.986	14.8
Cubs	2180	99	311	0.983	9.8
Indians	2010	94	498	0.985	6.2
Marlins	2221	117	328	0.98	0.8
Angels	2030	91	441	0.985	-0.5
Braves	2161	107	404	0.983	-0.8
Orioles	2126	100	441	0.983	-2
Padres	2097	85	401	0.986	-14.5
Pirates	2092	107	504	0.983	-17.8
White Sox	2134	108	427	0.983	-18
Twins	2078	108	465	0.983	-25.5
Diamondbacks	2073	113	374	0.981	-25.8
Mariners	2075	99	430	0.984	-32.8
Dodgers	2205	101	376	0.984	-35.8
Rangers	2107	132	528	0.979	-35.8
Tigers	2122	113	466	0.981	-38
Yankees	2143	83	366	0.986	-39.4
Reds	2204	114	414	0.981	-41.7
Rockies	2122	96	466	0.985	-70.9

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.

Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.

Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.

Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.

More Updates From the Winter Meetings

The trades just keep coming from Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings. I've written more updates on the RotoExperts.com blog and now of course I share them with you.

CC Sabathia Agrees to Pitch for the New York Yankees
In the end the New York Yankees refused to take no for an answer. CC Sabathia had no issues with playing in New York his problem was that he really wanted to live and play on the West Coast. Unfortunately for Sabathia none of the West Coast teams were willing to step to the plate. It might have dragged on even longer but Brian Cashman was so determined to sign him that he left the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas to meet with Sabathia and his wife in San Francisco. Cashman also added another year onto the contract and gave Sabathia the ability to opt out of the contract after three seasons.The final deal was for seven years and $161 million.
Closer J.J. Putz Traded in Three Team Deal
The Mets received closer (now set-up man) J.J. Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed, and right-hander Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners received outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and, from the Mets, right-hander Aaron Heilman, center fielder Endy Chavez and four Minor Leaguers -- first baseman Mike Carp, right-hander Maikel Cleto, left-hander Jason Vargas and center fielder Ezekiel Carrera. The Indians received right-hander Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from the Mariners.
The Detroit Tigers Acquire RHP Edwin Jackson
The Detroit Tigers have sent outfielder Matt Joyce to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Edwin Jackson. The trade fills a need on both teams. The Tigers needed a healthy starter to eat some innings. While the Rays needed a corner outfielder.

More from the Hot Stove Junkie

The latest Hot Stove Junkie is posted on RotoExperts.com. Lots of interesting moves last week to analyze.

The Boston Red Sox Sign another Japanese Pitcher
I ran into Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein last week. I wanted to ask him about his off-season plans but he just kept repeating the same phrase.

I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so

After walking away in confusion, I heard some news that rather explained it. The Red Sox had just signed their third Japanese pitcher. Right-hander Junichi Tazawa signed a three-year deal for $3.3 million. Tazawa is just 22 years-old. He will begin the 2009 season pitching for the double-A Portland Sea Dogs. Translating Japanese numbers to relevance for fantasy leaguers has always been a problem but Tazawa appears worthy of top prospect status. He spent the last four years pitching in the Japanese Industrial League for Nippon Oil where he was 13-1 with 5 saves and a 0.80 ERA this season in 21 games. He struck out 114 batters to just 15 walks in 113 innings. He is someone to watch, but I would not go nuts for him just yet.

Winter Meetings Update

The Winter Meetings were quite active today with some expected moves and some not so expected. The rumors of even more moves were running rampant. I've been writing updates for the RotoExperts.com blog all day between sessions with my 11-month old niece who has become quite the mimic. She can almost perfectly imitate her grandfather's smoking cough, it is even more hilarious than it sounds. I'm summarizing all the moves here, check out the links for the complete analysis.

Today's Moves

The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million.
The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million. The signing is pending a physical for Everett. Believe it or not this is an okay move for the Tigers even if it does nothing for fantasy leaguers. The Tigers could not afford (or at least were unwilling) to sign one of the better free agents. They were engaged in trade talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire shortstop Jack Wilson. Trading for Wilson would have been a much worse move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers reached contract agreements with free agents Casey Blake (3B, LAD) and Mark Loretta (2B, LAD). Blake received a three-year contract worth $17.1 million. Loretta received a one-year deal worth $1.25 million to act as the teams utility man.
These are decent deal for the Dodgers who have made lots of terrible free agent deals in recent years . Both are signed relatively cheaply and not for many years. They also aren't paid so much that they couldn't be moved to the bench or another team should a younger player emerge.

Francisco Rodriguez was expecting to sign a bank breaking contract as the best closer on the market. Instead he has agreed to a nice but not groundbreaking deal with the New York Mets who played him and the market almost perfectly. K-Rod's deal is for three-years and $37 million.
Rodriguez is one of the best closers in baseball and an excellent fantasy option. However, it is important that owners know that Rodriguez is not the fireballer he was a few years ago. Rather than throwing his fastball 97-98 mph, he throws it 93-94. It may not seem like a huge distinction but it is to major league hitters. He claims to have taken some off his fastball to increase his control. If that's true it isn't working. In 2008 his K/9 fell from over twelve four straight years to 10.14 in 2008. At the same time his BB/9 has risen to nearly 4.50 the last two seasons.

The re-building baltimore Orioles opened a spot for the best prospect in the minors when they traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers - infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.
Ryan Freel should be a versatile reserve for the Orioles playing all three outfield positions and second and third base when necessary. Freel has decent on-base skills and good speed that he uses to steal bases at about a 75 percent success rate. Freel is an excellent pick-up in deeper leagues for his versatility and stolen bases. In shallower leagues he doesn't have much value unless he gets more consistent playing time.

Catcher Gerald Laird Traded to Detroit Tigers

Last night catcher Gerald Laird was sent to the Detroit Tigers for two prospects believed to be RHP Guillermo Moscoso and RHP Carlos Melo. This is definitely not the trade I was expecting to see.

Gerald Laird has yet to establish his real level in the majors. He has shown fantastic offensive potential as well as being very inconsistent at times. Moving from the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington to Commerica Park is going to have a negative impact. Commerica hasn't played as a pitcher's park the last couple of seasons but it definitely is more limiting on hitters than the Rangers ballpark. But frankly Laird is a hard player to figure out considering his consistent inconsistency. As long as we're paying for him based on last year's numbers I think he is a good pickup at catcher. If members of your league get excited about him based on the trade then it would be better to pass than to overpay.

ROTOEXPERTS.COM TO SPONSOR UFC FIGHTER AT UFC 92

This is so cool:

December 8, 2008, Safety Harbor, FL. RotoExperts, LLC today announced that they have partnered with Team BombSquad to sponsor Mike Massenzio for his fight at Ultimate Fighting Championship 92. UFC 92 will take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on the last weekend of December 2008.

UFC 92 has recently been touted as “The Ultimate 2008,” offering the best fight card assembled in UFC history, with two title belts on the line over the course of the evening. The fight will be available via Pay-Per-View, and viewership is expected to approach one million households. Massenzio enters the fight with an 11-2 record, while his opponent, UFC 7 Runner-Up CB Dollaway sits at 7-1. This is the first sponsorship of its kind for a fantasy sports-affiliated venture.

"RotoExperts.com is very pleased to be sponsoring one of the fighters on the best card the UFC has ever offered,” said Ben Ice, founder of RotoExperts.com. "In our short tenure as a fantasy sports advice site, we are looking to take a more active role helping to advance various areas of the sports entertainment world. Since our primary demographic also enjoys UFC, it is a natural match for us when considering sponsorship opportunities."

"Team BombSquad is extremely happy to be working with RotoExperts.com," added Ryan Citoli, manager for Team BombSquad. "Mike is thrilled to have a sponsor like RotoExperts in his corner to support and promote him, and Team BombSquad is looking forward to a long working relationship with both RotoExperts and Mike."

To view the fight, contact your PPV provider prior to December 27, 2008. The first fight on the card begins at 10:00PM EST / 7:00PM PST. Viewers can also access the fight via Yahoo! Sports if they prefer to watch online.

John Smoltz Noise

According to an article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution, free agent right-hander John Smoltz is now throwing which puts him ahead of schedule in his rehab. I admit to having an irrational love for John Smoltz. He will always be one of my favorites --even when drafting him is extremely risky.

"Roger was impressed, and John’s on Cloud 9. No pain at all. None. Zero pain. Man, he’s way ahead of schedule.”

Smoltz, citing a desire to focus his energy on a rehabilitation and workout regimen, has declined most media requests for offseason progress reports. However, he eased the moratorium long enough to confirm that Friday’s session went well, and concurred with Cox’s optimistic view of his comeback.

“Every thing [is progressing], every day,” said Smoltz, who seemed as confident as Cox of his return. “I can’t say I felt that way the day after surgery. But as time has gone by, I certainly have grown in my confidence.”

Smoltz and left-hander Tom Glavine are fortysomething free agents trying to rebound from surgeries (Glavine, elbow and shoulder).

Braves general manager Frank Wren said he can’t count on either to make it back in 2009, but hopes to offer both of them contracts if and when they get to the point in their throwing programs where it seems like they would be ready to pitch.

Glavine was encouraged by long-toss sessions Wednesday and Friday, the 305-game winner’s first times throwing since Aug. 21 procedures to repair a torn flexor tendon and clean out his shoulder.

He’s also ahead of schedule in his throwing program, but not yet far enough for such optimism as Smoltz provided Friday.

Smoltz, the only pitcher with 200 wins and 150 saves, would likely be elected to the Hall of Fame if he never pitched another inning.

Dreaming of the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List

Are you shopping around for the ultimate gifts to buy the fantasy baseball lover in your life? Or perhaps you just want to give your loved ones the ultimate list of gift ideas. If so then look no further than this very blog post. This giant article lists every thing the fantasy baseball needs to participate and excel in the ultimate optimum dream world. (Amazon Links - just in case you're tempted)

The HARDWARE
We are dreaming here, right? That means there is no budget or real life situations to concern us. Since that is the case I will be listing every piece of hardware I would love to have for fantasy baseball purposes.

The Ultimate Laptop: HP Pavilion TX2510US 12.1-inch Laptop Black
This thing is so hot. It has great specs (2.10 GHz AMD Turion X2 ZM-80 Processor, 3 GB RAM, 250 GB Hard Drive, DVD Drive, Vista Premium) and great features. The thing I love most about it is that widescreen rotating touch screen. Man! that is beautiful. I make out great with my refurbished Think Pad but if money were no object, this would be my machine.



The Ultimate All-In-One Printer/Scanner: Canon Pixma MX700 Office All-On-One Inkjet Printer (2186B002)
Even with the ultimate laptop to take to your live drafts and auctions, you'll need a printer to print your emergency back-up lists (I've mentioned how important that is haven't I). This is one of the better ones and it isn't even all that expensive.



The Ultimate Cell Phone: The iPhone 3G
I've been dreaming about an iphone since I first heard the rumors. Unfortunately it just hasn't been possible with my non-existent budget. Like the HP it's all about the touchscreen. Other cell phones have touchscreens but they don't come close to the iphone's. For the ultimate fantasy baseball guy, constant access to the internet whether on the bus or on the can at work (courtesy flush please) is a real desire (and if you're the adventurous type you can use the iphone to connect your laptop to the internet). If you already have an iphone, check out this great selection of iphone accessories - I'll take that leather case, please.

The Ultimate Flat Screen HDTV Monitor: LG 42LG30 42-Inch 720p LCD HDTV
What is the point of watching your players in action if you aren't watching them in HD? I love the LG brand and this model has a fantastic price when you buy it through amazon.



The SUBSCRIPTIONS

The 2009 MLB.tv Season Package
Watch all of the out of market games from anywhere you can access the internet. This service has improved in leaps and bounds the last couple of seasons and I couldn't live without it. I would die for the person that got me this subscription. This includes over 2400 possible games and even 100 spring training games (when fantasy baseball scouting is at its height).

Scout.com Annual Total Access Pass
This is the best site on the planet for the very serious sports fan. For the fantasy baseball fan it is almost without par. It includes access to teams of scouts for every MLB, NLF, NCAA, and NBA team. Link your subscription to your favorite team and you'll also get a year-long subscription to your team's official magazine. Winter leagues, fall leagues, spring training, minor leagues - it is all covered. Believe me, you won't miss a thing with this site in your pocket.

The Baseball Prospectus Gift Subscription
Baseball Prospectus covers every aspect of the game from the minors to ownership issues. You also get the articles of the best baseball injury analyst in the business, Will Carroll. This site does some fantasy stuff but the real reason to subscribe is because they give you the all important context you need to understand baseball organizations and the way they think. It's relatively cheap too.

Gold Subscription to BaseballHQ.com: Fantasy Baseball Intelligence for Winners
This service is not cheap but it is the best in the business. Ron Shandler is the expert's expert. He has changed the way that smart people study baseball and he did it through our game. There is no aspect of this hobby that this subscription doesn't help you understand - from cheatsheets and draft software to contact rates and the LIMA plan. A MUST HAVE

The BOOKS

Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season
A preseason look at all of the moves and all of the players that will shape each organization in 2009. This is like a 1000-page fantasy baseball magazine. By March 1st, I feel lost without it.



The 2009 John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book
John Sickels is one of the best minor league analysts in the business. His book includes extensive lists on all of the prospects with a letter grade to help you easily understand their level of talent.

Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook: The Comprehensive Guide to Rising Stars
Baseball America is the definitive source of minor league and prospect information for almost the entire baseball industry. They lean heavily to the scouting side of things which is why you also need more numbers oriented evaluations like those you get from John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus.



Ron Shandler's 2009 Baseball Forecaster
The annual publication that supplements the website. This has all the player stats and strategy tips you need to excel every season. When you buy the book you also get free updates from the HQ website.



Art McGee's How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball
One of the most valuable skills that the fantasy baseball owner can learn is to value his own players. Every league is unique, so the better you understand your league the more accurately you can value players. This book will help you do just that. A classic that should be in every fantasy fan's library.



The ACCESORIES

Laptop Carrying Case: Timbuk2 264-X-570 - Ballistic Commute Laptop Messenger Bag in Black
This is a great gift idea all by itself. It will hold everything, the laptop, your lunch and cheatsheets that you will need at your fantasy draft. Not to mention its pratical everyday uses. I already have one.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Software: Roto Lab
There are many different options out there when it comes to draft software. Roto Lab is the standard they all aspire to reach. This software will cheap track of every team's budget and players and even recommend players and auction values that change based on your draft's inflation on draft day. If you a subscription to Baseball HQ you can qualify for a discount on this software. A MUST HAVE

FUN STUFF

Baseball Jersey: Birmingham Black Barons Pro Jersey
I love those vintage jersey's and they even come in huge sizes for big guys like me. If the old school stuff isn't for you a MLB replica of your favorite player's jersey works. Hey, you have to look cool at the draft.



And the Matching Cap: Birmingham Black Barons Fitted Cap
No point in wearing a jersey if you don't have a lid to go with it...



That was tons of fun for me. If only Santa Claus would deliver. What's on your Ultimate Gift List?

Scouting the Dominican Republic

I am one of those fantasy baseball guys that loves to study prospects. Nothing makes me happier (and increases my hat size) more than having identified players like Jose Reyes, Nate McLouth, and Mike Piazza before anyone else in my leagues. If you are a similar sort than you need to read this series of articles by Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It follows Rene Gayo, Latin American scouting director for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It explores the entire process of scouting and signing international prospects. This is a MUST READ.

Part One: A young Dominican out duels peers who play baseball 'for food'

Part Two: New academy just one part of building talent pool

Part Three: Gayo's focus is on finding talent, but he must battle emotions in process

Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey

There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

Sleeper Alert: Khalil Greene

I posted my thoughts on shortstop Khalil Greene's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals from the San Diego Padres today on the RotoExperts.com fantasy baseball blog. It is my intention that anyone who reads this blog not miss any tidbits I might have to offer. I say this so you'll know that the many links to that site aren't purely marketing related. I get nothing for sending people to that blog or to the RotoExperts.com. I just happen to write for it and believe that it is well worth reading.

Anyway, I think Khalil Greene is a great addition for the Cardinals and he should dramatically improve his fantasy value this season. Here is a clip and a link if you are inclined to read the entire post:

Khalil has a career BABIP of .285 while the average BABIP is closer to .300. He has a career LD percentage of 19.5, which is not spectacular but certainly solid. His career FB percentage 45.8 should also indicate some solid production with a power hitter like Khalil. But Petco seems to have tanked his HR/FB to a disappointing 9.6 percent. Just for comparison’s sake, J.J. Hardy has a just a 37.9 FB percentage but a career 11.9 HR/FB percentage (14.1 percent in 2008). A “normal” HR/FB percentage is around 11 percent. Busch Stadium (still a slight pitchers’ park with its Park Factor of .943 runs) is going to seem like a Little League field to Khalil in 2009.

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade

There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:

Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.

If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs (remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

Would You Draft Phil Hughes

After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.