The Top Ten UnSexy Baseball Players

I hope at this point I don't need to explain that by unsexy I do not refer to the players' doability...Anyway

There is a group of players in every league that always comes undervalued. In a lot of my leagues it is the unsexy ones. The over 30, never a superstar but always productive crowd. These players are always relatively easy to acquire and in fact they are probably offered to you often in trade for your most sexy players ( the guys you would need a ton before you parted with). The irony is that these are often players that were once considered very sexy.

1. Randy Winn
2. Mike Cameron
3. Jose Guillen
4. David DeJesus
5. Kevin Kouzmanoff
6. Jermaine Dye
7. Mark Buehrle
8. Jim Thome
9. Kevin Gregg
10. Casey Blake
    

Is that a boring list or what?

Blog Rally to Save the Boston Globe!

We have all read recently about the threat of possible closure faced by the Boston Globe. A number of Boston-based bloggers who care about the continued existence of the Globe have banded together in conducting a blog rally. We are simultaneously posting this paragraph to solicit your ideas of steps the Globe could take to improve its financial picture:

We view the Globe as an important community resource, and we think that lots of people in the region agree and might have creative ideas that might help in this situation. So, here's your chance. Please don't write with nasty comments and sarcasm: Use this forum for thoughtful and interesting steps you would recommend to the management that would improve readership, enhance the Globe's community presence, and make money. Who knows, someone here might come up with an idea that will work, or at least help. Thank you.

(P.S. If you have a blog, please feel free to reprint this item and post it. Likewise, if you have a Twitter or Facebook account, please add this url as an update or to your status bar to help us reach more people.)

The Ten Best Opening Day Events

Opening Day is always special for baseball fans. As fantasy owners it can be even more special because we finally have some statistics from the players we've spent all winter scouting and acquiring. Here are the ten best events for fantasy owners from Opening Day.

1. Emilio Bonifacio hits an inside-the-park homerun and steals three bases.
2. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia had two hits and three RBI, including a homerun.
3. Aside from the ten hits allowed (including a homerun) Cliff Lee looks to be in mid-season form.
4. Felipe Lopez and Tony Clark both became the first players ever to hit Opening Day homeruns from both sides of the plate.
5. Daniel Murphy hit a homerun, while the Mets bullpen backed up Johan Santana.
6. The best player in baseball went 2-for-3 with a grand slam and five RBI. (That's Hanley Ramirez NOT Alex Rodriguez, who has probably been less than the best for a few years now).
7. Damn, if Seth Smith doesn't look like the new Matt Holliday with a homerun and a stolen base.
8. I am positive that the Ryan Franklin owners were happy to see Jason Motte blow his first save opportunity.
9. Matt Kemp gave us another sign that his power is immense and 30 homeruns are coming this season, by hitting a shot out of the deepest part of Petco Park.
10. The Toronto Blue Jays fans got a nice look at the future when Adam Lind and Travis Snider both hit Opening Day homers.

Honorable Mention: Ken Griffey Jr. homered; Nick Johnson is still healthy; Carlos Zambrano looks healthy; Jeremy Hermida continued his hot hitting; The Baltimore Orioles may not be the pushovers the other members of the AL East are hoping.

American League 25-Man Roster Surprises

Part One of the Opening Day roster surprises can be found here.

The Baltimore Orioles

Alfredo Simon is in the rotation after having a fantastic spring training.

The Boston Red Sox

George Kottaras chosen over Josh Bard to back up Jason Varitek. Chris Carter is the extra corner outfielder rather than Brad Wilkerson.

The New York Yankees

Rookie Ramiro Pena beat out Angel Berroa for the extra infielder job. Jonathan Albaladejo is chosen over several more experienced veterans for the last bullpen spot.

The Tampa Bay Rays

Jeff Niemann makes the rotation after all, thanks to the last minute trade of Jason Hammel to the Colorado Rockies and the demotion of David Price to the minors.

The Toronto Blue Jays

Rookie Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond are the numbers four and five starters.
The Chicago White Sox

DeWayne Wise and Chris Getz have not only won the starting center field and second baseman jobs, but are also batting first and second in the lineup. A lot of weight put on two relatively inexperienced players on a team expected to win.

The Cleveland Indians

That the Indians would rather play three players at their second best position rather than two at their best position and one at the position he is best suited for -- Mark DeRosa 2B, Asdrubal Cabrera SS, and Jhonny Peralta 3B -- and sticking with DeRosa at 3B, Peralta at SS, and Asdrubal at 2B.

The Detroit Tigers

The release of Gary Sheffield was mildly surprising but rookies Rick Porcello in the rotation and Ryan Perry in the bullpen have to be the greater qualifiers.

The Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen looks like the starting second baseman -- his third position change as a Royal.

The Minnesota Twins

Manager Ron Gardenhire did not find a way to squeeze Michael Cuddyear into his starting lineup. But you have to like the potential of a Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Delmon Young outfield. Left-hander Brian Duensing in the bullpen rather than Jose Mijares.

The Los Angeles Angels

If we ignore all the pitchers in the rotation because of injured veterans, the demotion of shortstop/third baseman Brandon Wood who probably deserved a chance in the majors.

The Oakland Athletics

Billy beane acquiring three major league veterans (Matt Holiday, Orlando Cabrera, and Jason Giambi) was pretty surprising, but not as much as throwing top prospects Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson directly into the rotation.

The Seattle Mariners

Shawn Kelley made the team and will pitch middle relief.

The Texas Rangers

Kris Benson has returned to the major leagues and is in the Rangers rotation.

Top MLB 25-man Roster Surprises (National League)

Every season there are players that seem to come out of nowhere to surprise fantasy owners with their quality performances. We all wish we had drafted the Carlos Quentins of the world. One way to get a jump on the other owners in your league is to become more aware of the surprise additions (or even just the slightly unexpected in some cases) to the 25-man rosters.

Below you'll find the interesting roster developments on the Nationals League rosters. A bit later today, I'll post the American League version. And still later tonight my Waiver Wire column should be posted to CrucialTaunt.com. My article this week will feature write-ups on a lot of the more obscure additions.

The Atlanta Braves

Jordan Schafer is the starting center fielder.
The Florida Marlins

Emilio Bonifacio is the starting third baseman.

The New York Mets

Gary Sheffield was a late addition to the team and could see a significant amount of time in right field.

The Philadelphia Phillies

Chan Ho Park is in the Philadelphia rotation. Shane Victorino is betting seventh because manager Charlie Manuel doesn't believe he is quite ready for the season.

The Washington Nationals

Austin Kearns is starting ahead of Elijah Dukes.

The Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg being named the closer over Carlos Marmol shocked a lot of fantasy owners.

The Cincinnati Reds

Darnell McDonald winning a bench role at the expense of Jonny Gomes.

The Houston Astros

Geoff Blum is still considered the starter at third base, despite the acquisition of Jeff Keppinger.

The Milwaukee Brewers

Infielder Casey McGehee and outfielder Brad Nelson making the team as bench players when Tony Gwynn was waived and assigned to AAA.

The Pittsburgh Pirates

Nyjer Morgan is still the starter in left field.

The St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Duncan pushes Colby Rasmus to the bench as a fourth outfielder. Joe Mather and Chris Perez optioned to the minors.

The Arizona Cardinals

Minor League veteran Ryan Roberts makes the team.

The Colorado Rockies

Top prospect Dexter Fowler makes the team but will sit on the bench behind Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith...for now.

The Los Angeles Dodgers

James McDonald won the fifth starter job, despite the Dodgers early claim they would break him in via the bullpen.

The San Diego Padres

Everth Cabrera (a Rule V pick) makes the team by impressing GM Kevin Towers. Shawn Hill wins a rotation spot without much of an audition.

San Francisco Giants

Fred Lewis is batting third in the order. Pablo Sandoval will be the reserve catcher, a situation that could impact his playing time in a negative way.

New Yankee Stadium - Park Factors

From MLB.com

...The baseball bounces a little bit harder off the walls here, Damon insisted. And sure enough, his point was proven on the first pitch of Saturday's game, as Alfonso Soriano scorched a line drive off the wall, only to be held to a single as Damon came up with the perfect play...

..."Sometimes I'll hit line drives that might be doubles in other stadiums that will sneak over that right-field wall," Teixeira said. "A lot of the balls that were hit the last few days would have gone out any day in any park, but I think this is going to be a good hitter's park."

...the deep drives came as no surprise to Cubs manager Lou Piniella, who accurately predicted the phenomenon before Saturday's game. "I looked at this thing [Friday] night," Piniella said. "It doesn't seem like the ball goes too well to center field. At least now, it doesn't look like the ball travels too well to left-center. I think, basically, there's a wind tunnel out to right field. It really, really, really shoots the ball out that way." Piniella said that the Yankees would have to wait for the weather to warm up in May or June to get a true indication of how the park will play. But his suggestion for the Indians and Athletics, the stadium's next two visitors, would be to pitch to the middle part of the ballpark...

...There is also more space in foul territory behind first and third bases, giving infielders more of an opportunity to help pitchers and snag outs. Had the Yankees been playing here in 2004, Jeter might have avoided bloodshed on that dive against the Red Sox...

A Bunch of Stuff to Read While I Draft...

Jason Grey of ESPN is probably my favorite fantasy baseball analyst. In this article he gives lots of Draft Day Auction advice. Pretty standard stuff but good reading anyway. I always slot my auction dollars in a similar fashion though I probably go more extreme to the hitting side than most will dare.

My buddy Brian Joura writes about his own Daniel Murphy obsession. I know I have one. I recently traded a $26 Brandon Phillips for a $6 Daniel Murphy(w/Seth McClung) in my primary NL-only league. I wish someone would wager with me...

A lot of owners are avoiding Texas Ranger starters as they used to avoid Colorado Rockies pitchers. Because of the great hitter's park where they play their home games. I have a hunch those owners will begin making exceptions with the great crop of arms coming up and the tremendous investment in pitching minds like Mike Maddux and Nolan Ryan to guide them. Though expecting Kris Benson to become an ownable pitcher is not dissimilar to expecting Mike Tyson to win a humanitarian award.

I went into winter with the assumption that Elijah Dukes would be a regular in the outfield for the Washington Nationals. Despite signing Adam Dunn, everything I read suggested that remained the case, until now...

My favorite Top Prospects List...

Gary Sheffield is a New York Met (and my boy Daniel Murphy still has a full time job!) and could reach 500 homers in New York. I knew the Mets couldn't start the season without an aging injury risk on the roster!

Adam Ronis - A Knight of the Roundtable

Adam Ronis of News Day is the host of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable this week. He asked the assembled Knights if there were players that we would not draft no matter how far they slipped in the draft or auction. You can read the entry at the link below:

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Hosted By Adam Ronis

Moving Up: Marcus Thames

With Gary Sheffield's release last week Marcus Thames received a huge boost in fantasy value. He should receive close to regular at-bats by taking most of the designated hitter at-bats as well as playing some left field when Carlos Guillen is unable to play or just needs a break. But how good is Marcus Thames?

Thames has shown the ability to hit 40 plus homers if given a full season of at-bats (550-600). Unfortunately, even if he receives those at-bats he isn't likely to hit better than .250-.260 and potentially worse than that. He does not walk much so his on-base percentage will be fairly low, though he may receive more walks due to the intimidation factor of an increasing homer total. This is not the player that will turn your team from a loser to dominate (if such a player even exists), but he can turn a good team to an even better one assuming that you are not also rostering Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds.

His stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Total Postseason	- - - - - -	7.7 % 4.5 %	28.0 % 28.6 %	0.30 0.17	.302 .273	.498 .333	.801 .606	.257 .095	.265 .333	183.6 1.5	9.5 -1.2	.338 .266
2002	Yankees	0.0 %	30.8 %	0.00	.231	.538	.769	.308	.250	1.5	-0.1	.321
2003	Rangers	9.9 %	24.7 %	0.44	.298	.274	.572	.068	.259	5.5	-4.8	.259
2004	Tigers	8.8 %	25.5 %	0.38	.326	.509	.835	.255	.283	26.2	3.4	.352
2005	Tigers	7.8 %	35.5 %	0.24	.263	.411	.674	.215	.226	10.4	-3.8	.287
2006	Tigers	9.6 %	26.4 %	0.40	.333	.549	.882	.293	.274	61.8	12.9	.370
2006	Tigers	4.5 %	28.6 %	0.17	.273	.333	.606	.095	.333	1.5	-1.2	.266
2007	Tigers (AAA)	0.0 %	12.5 %	0.00	.375	.750	1.125	.375	.333	1.9	1.0	.491
2007	Tigers	4.6 %	26.8 %	0.18	.278	.498	.776	.257	.263	34.0	-1.1	.327
2008	Tigers	7.1 %	30.1 %	0.25	.292	.516	.808	.275	.260	44.1	2.9	.339
2009	Bill James	8.3 %	25.1 %	0.36	.314	.512	.826	.261	.268	50.9	2.8	.352
2009	CHONE	8.2 %	27.7 %	0.32	.314	.506	.820	.257	.274	53.3	7.7	.352
2009	Marcel	7.6 %	26.8 %	0.31	.306	.490	.796	.244	.275	49.8	1.7	.337
2009	Oliver	7.7 %	25.4 %	0.33	.312	.514	.826	.261	.275	45.8	4.9	.348
2009	ZiPS	7.8 %	27.7 %	0.30	.309	.512	.821	.263	.274	43.1	5.7	.349

New England Rotisserie Baseball Association

NERBA, or the New England Rotisserie Baseball Association, had its draft on Tuesday night. Nerba, as we affectionately refer to the league, is entering season 22. The number of teams has varied over the years from 20 in the good ol' days to down to 14 in the worst years. But it has been pretty stable lately at 16 teams. It is obviously a mixed league and uses standard 5x5 categories. It is not a snake draft. The pick each team has varies in each round, which can create unique challenges when you end up with 32 selections between picks twice in a row. Most of these guys are 20-year veterans of fantasy and know their stuff pretty well.

This is one of many leagues where I usually avoid pitching until after the first 8-10 rounds. I varied from that strategy hugely by taking three pitchers in the first eight rounds. I tried to draft as many power/speed combos as possible but mostly I was just winging it.
The Really Rad Running Rebels (in this league I'm a different sort of running rebel every season)

C Kenji Johjima
C Jesus Flores

1B Mike Jacobs
3B Aubrey Huff
CI Todd Helton

2B Alexei Ramirez
SS Elvis Andrus
MI Placido Polanco

OF Matt Kemp
OF Shane Victorino
OF Torii Hunter
OF Daniel Murphy
OF Jordan Schafer

U Kendry Morales

SP Tim Lincecum
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Manny Parra
SP Kenshim Kawakami

RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Brad Zeigler
RP Scott Downs
RP Jeremy Affeldt

Thoughts?

The Detroit Tigers Go Young

Not so much on this blog but in conversations with league mates and on message boards I've been saying that Gary Sheffield was toast and not worth drafting. That said, I was shocked when I heard that the Tigers had released him. Fourteen million is a lot to pay a player to perform for another team. I should have seen it coming when they acquired Josh Anderson (who I like a lot). I see Marcus Thames and Carlos Guillen getting the bulk of the designated hitter at-bats with Anderson frequently starting in the outfield for a boost to both the defense and the team speed.

I expect to see Anderson leading off for the Tigers more often than not. He does not walk much, but his very good contact skills and speed allow him to post acceptable on-base percentages. His speed should be very disruptive to the opposition. I see 30-40 steals for Anderson this season.

Anderson's stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Total	- - -	6.0 %	19.2 %	0.33	.364	.419	.782	.103	.379	30.8	4.0	.351
2006	Astros (AA)	4.6 %	13.0 %	0.37	.349	.385	.734	.077	.351	76.5	-1.2	.339
2007	Astros (AAA)	5.9 %	14.6 %	0.43	.325	.341	.666	.068	.317	58.4	-16.5	.311
2007	Astros	6.9 %	9.0 %	0.83	.413	.403	.816	.045	.393	11.3	2.0	.363
2008	Braves (AAA)	5.7 %	11.5 %	0.53	.358	.405	.763	.091	.349	75.5	11.0	.354
2008	Braves	5.6 %	24.3 %	0.24	.338	.426	.764	.132	.370	19.5	1.9	.344
2009	Bill James	5.1 %	13.8 %	0.39	.322	.362	.684	.079	.323	40.2	-11.3	.312
2009	CHONE	5.6 %	15.7 %	0.38	.332	.374	.706	.088	.334	67.9	-4.0	.319
2009	Marcel	7.7 %	19.4 %	0.43	.351	.423	.774	.130	.343	35.4	1.7	.339
2009	Oliver	4.7 %	15.8 %	0.31	.318	.363	.681	.085	.322	65.8	-16.6	.304
2009	ZiPS	5.0 %	13.6 %	0.38	.310	.337	.647	.070	.303	58.6	-14.8	.298

The Tigers also awarded Ryan Perry a spot in the major league bullpen. He will not be closing, at least not right away. Jim Leyland plans to give Fernando Rodney the first opportunity. Rodney has been a solid reliever but has failed when given closer responsibilities. Perry was drafted with the expectation that he could quickly reach the majors and contribute to the bullpen. The closer of the future label has been tossed around a lot. He's definitely going to be a target of mine this weekend if the price is right.

Perry is very young and has not spent much time in the minors. But he has fantastic stuff. You can see his college numbers here. For what is worth here are his MiLB stats thus far:

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2008	Tigers (R)	18.00	0.00	4.00	0.00	.000	0.00	.000	100.0 %	-0.80
2008	Tigers (A+)	9.26	5.40	1.71	0.00	.313	1.89	.418	73.9 %	3.20
2009	CHONE	4.85	5.88	0.82	1.73	.290	1.81	.296	68.3 %	6.63

Tigers Release Gary Sheffield

Porcello and Perry Earn Roster Spots

Porcello in Starting Rotation

...Go the Spoils

The latest (waiver) Wire column is up at Crucial Sports. This week's article dives into some of the spring training battles and tries to decide if the losers will retain any value. This was written just before the flurry of activity the last few days. More computer problems have limited my posting ability. This time it's my moden or router (maybe both). Anyway, You'll probably see a lot of stuff pop up on the site tonight and tomorrow in my ten minute hits of internet access. So, yes, lots of short to the point posts.

A sample from The (Waiver) Wire.

Seth Smith over the Top Prospects as Rockies Left Fielder

Because of their loaded outfield, the Rockies forced Seth Smith to spend an extra year at Triple-A Colorado Springs. Smith is a fine hitter. He makes excellent contact and draws walks, which bodes well for his batting average. The Rockies will be batting Smith second in the lineup to take advantage of his high on-base percentage. He is more of a doubles hitter than a homerun hitter but 15-20 homers playing in the thin air is very possible. Smith runs well, but has not been a big base stealer.

The Wire Option

Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are likely to spend most of the season in the minors. Both players have tremendous tools and project as future major league regulars and could be stars. There is likely no need for them in 2009 with Matt Murton and infielders like Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker likely to appear in the outfield. Murton makes an excellent reserve because of his power potential. Murton definitely intrigued Rockies fans with his excellent spring performance.

Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer

Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”

All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Braves Deal Center Fielder to Tigers

The Atlanta Braves sent outfielder Josh Anderson to the Detroit Tigers for reliever Rudy Darrow. This is pretty clear evidence that top prospect Jordan Schafer has won Atlanta's center field job.

From MLB.com
Anderson was in competition for the center-field job with the Braves, but immediately hit the trading block when he apparently lost out to Jordan Schafer. He'll be an extra outfielder in Detroit, where the starting trio of Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez is set. The 26-year-old Anderson played 40 games with the Braves last year, batting .294 with seven doubles, three home runs, 12 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. His Minor League numbers give a better glimpse of his speed, he swiped 42 bases in 49 attempts over 121 games at Triple-A Richmond last year and boasts 280 stolen bases in his six-year Minor League career.

Jordan Schafer should add speed and power to the Braves lineup. I see him becoming an eventual 20/20 type on an annual basis. I hardily recommend him in all NL-only leagues and he should contribute in deeper mixed leagues as well.

The Cubs Name Kevin Gregg Closer

From the Chicago Tribune:

MESA, Ariz. - Cubs manager Lou Piniella named Kevin Gregg the team's closer on Sunday over Carlos Marmol. Piniella spoke to both pitchers this morning and made his announcement after batting practice at HoHoKam Park. Piniella's difficult decision was made even harder because he knows what Marmol can do while he’s only just learning about Gregg.

Statistically speaking, Gregg has outperformed Marmol this spring, throwing 8 1/3 shutout innings in nine appearances. Marmol has compiled a 4.50 earned-run average and hit five batters in eight innings, not counting his numbers from the World Baseball Classic. Marmol and Gregg both have 10 strikeouts, while Marmol has walked one and Gregg has walked two.

I think this is the right decision for the Cubs but there are going to be a lot of disappointed Marmol owners as this news spreads. Gregg should be a perfectly compentent source of saves without the gaudy strikeout numbers that Marmol provides. Marmol of course is a perfectly fine choice as a middle reliever with saves potential.

Hot Prospect: Rick Porcello

With Nate Robertson injured and Dontrelle Willis now on the disabled list with "performance anxiety" (sounds pretty bad) it appears that top prospect Rick Porcello has a very good chance to begin the season in the major leagues. Few who have seen him pitch doubt that Porcello would eventually be at the top of the Detroit Tiger's rotation. However, who knew it would come after just one full season in the minors?

While we all hate it when teams rush young players, Porcello appears to be ready. He has always had an advanced approach to pitching and is very good at conserving his energy and keeping his pitch count low. He has a fastball that can hit 97-98 but prefers to pitch in the 90-94 range where he has greater movement. He could probably pile up huge strikeout numbers were that his preference but he would rather conserve pitches and induce groundballs.

If you can live with middling strikeout numbers (I expect he'll be in the 5.5 to 6.5 K9 range) from a great groundballer, Porcello makes an excellent late-rounds selection.

Scouting Report: Rick Porcello

Willis to focus on health

Bonderman likely to miss first start

Perry continues to impress Leyland

The New Mariners Closer is Brandon Morrow

According to reports from Larry LaRue of the News Tribune, Brandon Morrow is returning to the Seattle Mariner's bullpen. The young right-hander and Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu both want Morrow in the closer role which should cinch the deal. The only potential obstacle is apparently Morrow's handling of his diabetes. Morrow suggested his own return to the bullpen as the closer when it became apparant he was failing to make the starting rotation.

The only thing Morrow needs to prove now is that he can close regularly despite diabetes, a disease that can rock him unexpectedly. On Sunday, for instance, Morrow’s blood sugar level was high and his energy level down.

Morrow has the stuff to close but still has occasional control issues. He will need to be going strong when Chad Cordero is ready to return in late May. Cordero still makes a nice low risk/high reward reserve stash.

Morrow wants to close - and he almost certainly will

Sleeper Alert: Emilio Bonifacio

It looks like the Florida Marlins have chosen a winner in the battle for the job of starting first baseman. That winner appears to be Emilio Bonifacio who has started the last few games at the position. This results in Jorge Cantu moving from third base to first base and Gaby Sanchez going to triple-A. Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez has also suggested that if he makes the team he will hit leadoff. Cameron Maybin would hit second (an excellent place for a talented rookie to hit).

In most leagues Bonifacio will only qualify at second base. However, he should soon qualify at third base and may give Hanley Ramirez the occasional day off at shortstop. Most analysts expected the switch-hitting Bonifacio to be a utility player and that may be his ultimate role but he does have good on-base skills and the speed to steal bases. As with most speed reliant players he hits more than 50 percent of his balls in play on the ground. He does not have much power but will crush a mistake pitch.

Presently you can draft Bonifacio in the later rounds of NL-only drafts and he'll probably be available in shallow mixed leagues. If given 500 at-bats the upside looks something like this:

.270/.340/.400 w/3-5 homeruns, 70 runs, 40 RBI, 40 stolen bases

Bonifacio Leading Off

The Marlins' Prized Possession

Five Spring Training Questions Without Answers

There is no longer any doubt that Chase Utley will be ready and in the lineup for the Phillies on Opening Day. His plate discipline and patience should be unaffected. Judging by the small example we've seen in spring training he'll have no problem driving the ball. The only aspect of his game that we have yet to see is the stolen base. If the stolen base is no longer part of Utley's arsenal how will that change his value? He would still be one of the better second basemen in the National League due to his ability to hit for average and power in a loaded lineup.

If Joba Chamberlain can duplicate his performance as a starter in 2008 for the entire 2009 season he will easily be a top ten starter. The question remains if health and the Yankees will allow him to do it. He hasn't had a very encouraging spring for anyone concerned. His velocity has been down and he has appeared to be far less intense than would be ideal. It could be just a spring training issue. His velocity was down last spring and it exploded when he moved to the bullpen. Is this a Joba who is being ultra careful not to get hurt and to preserve his arm for a long season? Or is this a Joba already injured and trying to pitch through pain?

What about the Red Sox pitching staff? There are too many available bodies with another collection of arms that should be ready for the majors in in May/June. Justin Masterson is still in the running for a starting role according to recent reports and so is Clay Buchholz. What will happen with Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz if they are all effective and ready if Masterson and Buchholz are pitching well behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester? Rather than become clearer, this situation has become murkier. Let's not even get into the bullpen...

What is the right price to pay for Alex Rodriguez? There is noise about his rehab going well but when have you ever heard that rehab was going horribly? The cloud of controversey around him seems to get bigger and darker everyday. Even if he comes back and is effective in say June the injury risk will remain huge since effectively his injury has been patched not fixed. Will this make the problem worse in the long run? What if he comes back in 2010 and has lost a step? Minus stolen bases doesn't A-Rod become Aramis Ramirez? Not bad but not someone you want to pay first round value to have.

It probably isn't bugging others as much as me but who the hell is going to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield, especially in left field? Nyjer Morgan is a speedy fourth outfielder who the Pirates seem willing to give an extended opportunity. Andrew McCutcheon is the most talented option but the Pirates will want to send him down long enough to delay arbitration by a year. Steve Pearce deserves an opportunity but doesn't seem to be very appreciated by management considering the way he's been dismissed as a possibility for two straight seasons. Brandon Moss has battled injury and is probably another fourth outfielder ultimately but maybe he's another David Murphy (another Red Sox cast away). The one lock is Nate McClouth who is probably the center fielder but if the Pirates are going to start a mediocre offensive option like Morgan wouldn't make sense to have him in center to maximize the defensive possibilities? I personally believe it may be a mish-mash of option the entire season.

The Wire... Waiver That Is...

I have a an article about ten sleeper outfielders up at Crucial Sports which you can check out by clicking the link below:
The Wire and Sister Aloysius

A list of the players featured:

Travis Buck

Nelson Cruz

Elijah Dukes

Jeff Francoeur

Brett Gardner

Daniel Murphy

Felix Pie

Nate Schierholtz

Ryan Spilborghs

Justin Upton

Fantasy Football: Pick Me

Okay, one more diversion for this awesome series of videos...This is just a small sample of them.

Josh Hamilton’s Toughest Interview

A quick diversion away from Fantasy Baseball to indulge in loving one of my favorite players give an interview to the young daughter of one of my favorite bloggers.

A tip of the cap goes to The Gear Up Sports Rangers Blog.

Expert Leagues: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

NOTE: Apologies to those that received the incomplete version of this in their feeds. My big fat fingers struck the wrong keys.

In the last week I've had two expert league drafts - The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League - a 12 team, mixed, 5x5 (OBA/Strikeouts), Head-to-Head league, and The Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge - a fairly standard AL-only draft league. The two drafts could not have gone more differently.

The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League

This draft took place on Mock Draft Central. It went quickly and smoothly. I was pretty much able to follow my very simple plan. The plan - draft a balanced offense but with an emphasis on power and pad the reserve list with lots of cheap steals and saves.

C Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

1B Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
3B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
CI Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

2B Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
SS Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
MI Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners

OF Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
OF Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

U Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians

SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
SP Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
SP Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
SP Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
SP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP Justin Duchscherer, Oakland Athletics
SP Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins

RP Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs
RP Joey Devine, Oakland Athletics

Res C John Baker, Florida Marlins
Res 1B Jason Giambi, Oakland Athletics
Res 3B Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
Res OF Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels
Res OF Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Res SP David Huff, Cleveland Indians

Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge - American League

This draft did not go so well for a variety of reasons. I spent two days inserting my draft lists into the CBSportsline.com system. I had another relatively simple plan - Draft an amazing offense and a low cost LIMA style pitching staff. I signed in 30 minutes early to queue up all of my sleeper picks and the pitchers I liked best. The draft began okay but then I and other noticed that the DH's were not listed under DH's. the draft was stopped to correct this problem. Then with the problem fixed autodraft took over and starting picking formy team and others. This required us to once again stop the draft. For some reason which I don't understand, we were unable to back out to the point the draft was originally stopped. It was decided that we would start the draft over an hour later and rebuild the draft thus far.

When we returned the draft was not rebuilt and owners who had previously been on auto-draft were now present. We attempted several times to rebuild the draft but it proved impossible. In addition the re-boot deleted my pre-ranks and all of the players I had put in my queue which meant I was going to have to wing it. The result was a pretty good offense and a bullpen dominated pitching staff.

This is not really intended as an excuse for my sorta lousy draft but just a description of the chaos of the draft itself. I should have been better prepared with a paper list but I was not. As a result I will probably be spending the first half of the season scrambling for innings.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

1B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
3B Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
CI Mike Jacobs, Kansas City Royals

2B Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians
SS Bobby Crosby, Oakland Athletics
MI Ronny Cedeno, Seattle Mariners

OF B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
OF Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
OF Xavier Nady, New York Yankees
OF Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins
OF Justin Ruggiano, Tampa Bay Rays

U Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox

P David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners
P Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays
P Dallas Braden, Oakland Athletics
P Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
P Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays
P Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles
P George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles
P Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
P Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers

Res Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
Res Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics
Res Derek Holland, Texas Rangers
Res David Huff, Cleveland Indians
Res Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels

Okay, lets hear your thoughts...

Potential Breakout: Lastings Milledge

Lastings Milledge will turn 24-years old on opening day. Although it appears that he broke out in 2008, I believe there is quite a bit more fantasy baseball goodness coming in 2009. Milledge was moved around a injury (and talent lacking) lineup often last year. He also appears to have been a little unlucky with his BABIP judging by his line drive and ground ball rates and very good speed.

Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta recently announced more good news for Milledge owners. Milledge will act as the Nationals leadoff hitter this season with the manager's blessing to steal bases. An improved on-base percentage and a stable place in the batting order should significantly increase his stolen base opportunities. The Nationals have an all-star cast of former center fielders and leadoff hitters (Marquis Grissom and Devon White among them) in camp working with Milledge on improving his defense and his base stealing techniques and early reports have been very positive.

The Nationals' healthier (and more talented) 2009 lineup should also allow Milledge to score more runs and provide more RBI opportunities. Adam Dunn, a momentarily healthy Nick Johnson, Josh Willingham, a fulltime contribution from Elijah Dukes, and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman should transform a weak lineup into a potential powerhouse.

2009 UPSIDE: 600 at-bats, .280/.340/.440 with 20 HR, 50 RBI, 90 Runs, 40 SB

Trevor Hoffman and the Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

Thanks to a strain in his rib cage it appears that the Brewers slightly used closer, Trevor Hoffman, will not be available to start the season. This of course kicks speculation about the next in line into overdrive. A serious oblique injury (and it appears that Hoffman's is serious) can take four to six weeks or more to heal properly. The wise money should be on the 41-year old coming in on the long side of that healing time.

From MLB.com:

"It's looking dim," manager Ken Macha said. Macha made that pronouncement after head athletic trainer Roger Caplinger told him that Hoffman won't be back on a mound for another week or so. Because he would probably need to work a few side sessions before getting into a game, it's increasingly likely that Hoffman will be sidelined, and perhaps on the disabled list, when the Brewers play their regular-season opener on April 7 in San Francisco.

Ken Macha seems to prefer right-hander Seth McClung as the temporary replacement. McClung has improved significantly since joining the Brewers and has the stuff to close. Many fantasy analysts have projected Carlos Villanueva as the next in line to close. Villanueva showcased awesome skills as the 2008 season came to an end and many expect him to breakout this season. Unfortunately, Villanueva has pitched poorly in camp, bad enough for Macha to announce publically that he has been disappointing thus far.

Daniel Murphy Moving Up

I was already excited about Dan Murphy but this news has me positively giddy. This will ensure that his RBI and Runs totals are approaching the century mark. I see his value approaching $20-25 which is awesome considering his 216.17 ADP in NL-only leagues.

2009 UPSIDE: 500 at-bats/ .300/15/80/90/15

From the New York Daily News:

Daniel Murphy recently took some ribbing from teammates after adding his few-year-old Honda Civic to a sign-up sheet for transport to New York. After all, the car stood out on a list that included new Mercedes, BMWs and Cadillac Escalades.

Murphy, frankly, is more concerned with his hitting. And it's his bat that will land him in the No. 2 spot in the Mets' lineup on Opening Day and beyond.

Despite only 131 big-league at-bats on his resume, Murphy's approach at the plate has impressed Jerry Manuel so much that the skipper plans to place Murphy directly after Jose Reyes in his lineup. The plan would also entail placing Luis Castillo in the No. 8 hole.

Manuel didn't list his complete lineup, but it's reasonable to expect Murphy would be followed by Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Ryan Church, Brian Schneider, Castillo and the pitcher.

Sleeper Alert: David Murphy

David Murphy is expected to open the 2009 season as the starting left fielder for the Texas Rangers. Yet in AL-only leagues he has an ADP of just 209.69 behind odd choices such as Andruw Jones, George Kottaras, Daric Barton, and Melky Cabrera. The Rangers expect Murphy to set a career high in at-bats as Club President Nolan Ryan thinks he should be left in the lineup everyday to achieve his full potential. What is that potential?

Murphy should draw more walks and his plate discipline still has room for growth. However, he is a good contact hitter with plenty of power. He hits too many groundballs which limits his homerun potential to about 25 in a full season (without a major adjustment). He should hit for a solid average in the .280-.290 range. Murphy will bat in the middle of a loaded lineup which boads well for his Runs and RBI potential.

At his present draft position Murphy makes a great bargain selection in the later rounds of AL-only and even deeper mixed league drafts.

Hot Prospect: Stephen Strasburg

Usually, when a pitcher is able to throw his fastball with triple-digit velocity you can be almost certain that he'll also have trouble controlling it. This is not the case with San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg regularly blows up radar guns and he does it with a minuscule walk rate.

Strasburg is almost guaranteed to be the first pick of the 2009 Amateur Draft and become the property of the Washington Nationals. The Nationals cannot afford to screw up another first round pick and that is exactly what they would be doing by selecting anyone else. Scouts and analysts are rating him higher than even the very best picks of recent years. Only freaks like Doc Gooden and pitchers of that rare ability even come close.

Pitching Statistics
Year	Age	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2007	18	NCAA	1	3	2.43	25	0	0	7	37	4.4	0	3.6	11	0.89
2008	19	NCAA	8	3	1.57	13	13	4	0	97	5.6	0.1	1.5	12	0.79

San Diego State Aztecs Profile Page

Jason Churchill's Prospect Insider - Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg's WikiPedia Page

The Washington Post collects gushy quotes about Strasburg