Making a Winner of the Jackson Buzz: Part One

A few weeks back I boasted that with half the season still available any team could still make a run at first place. It would require being aggressive and taking some chances but it could be done. Steve, who owns the Jackson Buzz is willing to let me guide him in this experiment. I've broken done this process into a few steps so that they make for an interesting mini-series of articles.

Step One: Evaluating the Buzz and their situation

Step Two: Evaluating the other rosters for trade possibilities

Step Three: Scanning the Waiver Wire for Free Talent

The Jackson Buzz are part of a 14 team mixed league with 5x5 scoring. This is a fairly deep league but not so deep that we can't find the occasional gem on the free-agent list. Here is what Steve had to say about his own team:

All right Jon, you're on.

I've attached Excel spreadsheets with the rosters for the whole league, and the current standings. We've got weekly lineups, unlimited FAAB and free roster moves. So I can troll the waiver wire for whatever help I need. I've got a lot of faith in the guys I have (I just recently acquired Morneau for pretty cheap) and people in the league will deal when it makes sense.

So here's my thinking. I'd like to see if I can't craft a deal for a decent 2B. I was offered Aaron Hill in a classic sell-high deal but he wanted far too much for my taste. The offer was Hill and Micah Owings for Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza. I think that an SP for a decent 2B wouldn't be a bad idea at all. I'm also thinking that it might not be a bad idea to pick up some solid middle relief and try to cheat my WHIP and ERA down with guys like Belisario, Troncoso, Darren O'Day, Okajima, etc.

My roster is the last one on the spreadsheet. If you need these in another format just let me know. I look forward to hearing what you think. And one other thought: this is my league to experiment, so I'm down with any idea, no matter how off the wall it may seem.

- Steve

Here is the Buzz roster with salaries

C Joe Mauer 13
C John Baker 2

I expected better from John Baker this season but Joe Mauer has been pretty awesome since returning from the disabled list. I think Baker will bounce back a bit in the second half. Overall this is a solid couple of catchers.

1B Justin Morneau 27
3B Garrett Atkins 13
CI Billy Butler 6

You can immediately see a problem at the corner positions. There just isn't close to the power you need from these spots, especially in a mixed league. This is an area we will work to upgrade. Justin Morneau is great but he may help us more if he can be moved for two more boring but productive corners. Garrett Atkins has been better lately but he could also be traded and wind up on a contender's bench.

2B Ian Stewart 5
SS Christian Guzman 1
MI Willie Bloomquist 0

You have to love Ian Stewart at $5, he looks like he just might be an above-average third baseman. Christian Guzman is a very solid shortstop who hits for average and steals a few bases.

OF Fernando Martinez 0
OF Juan Rivera 1
OF B.J. Upton 29
OF Justin Upton 5
OF Shane Victorino 17

This outfield will be better in the second half than it was in the first. B.J. Upton should provide the Buzz with a large upgrade in production. Juan Rivera has been solid and is gaining the respect of the Angels coaching staff. Fernando Martinez is a weakness right now.

U1 Nate Schierholtz 0
U2 Jim Thome 3

Nate Schierholtz is moving up the rankings quickly and should be huge for us in the second half of the season. Jim Thome also seems to be heating up a bit.

SP1 Gavin Floyd 2
SP2 Matt Garza 5
SP3 Zack Greinke 9
SP4 Gil Meche 7
SP5 Rick Porcello 2
SP6 Kevin Slowey

This is a fairly good pitching staff made even stronger by Zack Greinke's hot start. Rick Porcello has been pretty good but may be even better trade bait as a hot youngster. Kevin Slowey came to the Buzz with Matt Capps in a recent trade of Dustin Pedroia.

RP1 Brad Lidge 20
RP2 LaTroy Hawkins 0
RP3 Brian Wilson 13
RP4 Dan Meyer 0

There is plenty of potential for saves here and we'll probably trade some of it for our other needs.

The Buzz Bench

1B Ryan Garko 1
OF David Dejesus 1
OF/1B Daniel Murphy 1
OF Ryan Spilborghs 1
OF Marcus Thames 1
OF Carlos Gomez 5

SP David Price 3
SP Jordan Zimmerman 1
RP Matt Capps

The Buzz Injured List

Akinori Iwamura
Connor Jackson 9

The next step is to look at the standings and identify categories where we can make progress relatively quickly. Overall the Buzz is 48points out of first place. Not ideal but with half the season left and Steve willing to take chances we can make a strong effort. It should be more fun than sucking anyway.

Batting Average is a difficult category to predict. But the Buzz is batting .275 in seventh place, just .008 out of first place. With a little luck we can gain points in this category without making radical changes.

Home Runs is the worst category for the Buzz. Steve is in last place in the category with 61 homers between the Buzz and first place. But two points are just four homers away and we'll be sure to get those points at least. Sixth place in the category is just 23 homers away and we'll make that a long term goal.

Runs is a decent category for the Buzz. Steve's team is fifth in runs and just 46 runs out of first place. The next three teams in the standings are just 20 or so runs ahead. We'll make this category a priority.

RBI is another weak category. Our team is in ninth place and 130 RBI out of first place. This will be tough. But there are a couple of teams just 30 or so RBI ahead so we'll just target those points for now.

Stolen Bases is another strong category for the Buzz. The team is in sixth place but just six stolen bases out of first and just 13 stolen bases out of first in the category. This will be another priority for the Buzz.

Offensively the Buzz is a .300 hitting, 61 homers, 46 Run, 130 RBI, 13 stolen base player out of first in every category. If we are to hit our more modest goals we need to hit around .290 and gain 23 homers, 46 runs, 40 RBI, and 13 stolen bases which is definitely doable. That alone would gain us about 23 points.

ERA is okay for the Buzz. The squad is in fifth with a 3.99 ERA, just 0.45 out of first. This is a difficult category to gain in without gaining a ton of quality innings. But we'll do our best.

Strikeouts is not a good category for us. The Buzz is in ninth place, 100 K's out of first place. This isn't undo-able but it would require gaining a lot of innings which might work against us a bit. We can hit sixth in the category by gaining 45 strikeouts so we'll try to do that.

Saves the Buzz is okay with. Steve's team is in third with 45 saves, seven out of second and 16 out of first place. We probably won't try to gain in this category, in fact we might make it worse by trading a closer.

Wins is a tightly packed category in this league. From worst to first in the category the teams have 38, 39, 39, 40 (the Buzz), 40, 40, 44, 46, 48, 49, 50, and 54 wins. We can probably make some gains in this category without too much effort.

WHIP is pretty tightly packed as well. The best team has a 1.24 WHIP, the Buzz in tenth have a 1.39 WHIP but are just 0.09 from third place. This can be done with a little luck.

Pitching is not as serious a problem as the offense. If we could make all of our net gains in just one player he would need to pitch well over 100 innings over the balance of the season with 10-12 wins, an ERA around 3.00 or better, a WHIP of 1.15 and at least a strikeout per inning. If it happened we would gain close to 30 points which would put us way over our goal.

In Part Two we will look at the other rosters and see if we can find trades to make that will move us towards our goals.

A Name to Remember: Aroldis Chapman

We have no idea if Aroldis Chapman can even come close to matching the hype created around his signing the last few days but he is definitely a player all fantasy baseball owners should have on their watch lists. If you are in a league with a mid-season farm draft or with very liberal rules for signing free agents, Chapman is worth speculating on.

If the name sounds familiar it is likely the result of watching him in the World Baseball Classic, pitching for the Cuban team. He recently defected while playing in a tournament in the Netherlands with the intention of signing a large contract with an MLB team. Although his performance statistics were mediocre, he impressed many scouts with a fastball that hit triple digits on the radar gun. He also throws a promising change-up pitch.

He has been compared to Jose Contreras another Cuban defector but he is younger and supposedly has the superior talent. If that's true you can expect the bidding to approach $50-60 million. But Chapman is still a raw talent. He will require a team with strong coaches and preferably a reputation for getting good results from raw talented arms.

Other International Signings: (info is courtesy of BaseballAmerica.com)

• The Cardinals signed Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo for $3.1 million.
• The Yankees signed Dominican catcher Gary Sanchez for $3 million as well as Dominican shortstop Damian Arredondo and Dominican righthander Christopher Cabrera for $400,000.
• The Athletics signed Venezuelan shortstop Wilfredo Solano, Junior Martinez, a Venezuelan third baseman, and Venezuelan Outfielder Alfredo Sosa.
• The Blue Jays signed Venezuelan catcher Santiago Nessy.
• The Brewers signed Dominican right fielder Jose Pena.
• The Astros signed Dominican shortstop Jonathan Mejia.
• The Pirates signed outfielder Ping-Hung Chi, righthander Shen-Cin Hong, and first baseman Chih-Wei Hsu all of Taiwan.
  

Eight Ways to Become a Better Fantasy League Commissioner

If you want to have a successful league you need to have good leadership of the league. In most leagues that leadership is in the form of a commissioner. It is not the only way but it is the most common way. My local AL and NL-only leagues actually utilize a Board of Governors which is a very good way to go, especially if you have a lot of opinionated owners and what league does not? But forming a BOG is a subject for another article. Right now I want to share with you Eight Ways to Become a Better Commissioner.

1. Take your job seriously but don't become a dictator - The commissioner's role is not to force the other owners to accept his terms. Rather the Commish should be guiding the league so that things go smoothly. When a decision that affects every team becomes a priority, the league should be voting so that the majority rules. The commish should be making the small decisions that need to made and enforcing the rules.
   
2. Build a League Constitution and be certain that every member of the league has access to it and understands it - Most of the disputes that come up in fantasy leagues are the result of misunderstanding the rules. A written constitution (constantly updated) will end most disputes. The commissioner should not have to argue his point but rather point to the rule that decides the argument.
3. Do not become angry when owners make mistakes or misunderstand the rules thereby forcing you to take action - Every season an owner is going to wait too long to activate a player or pickup an ineligible player or bid FAAB dollars he doesn't actually have. The commish should not become angry at this. It should just be dealt with in the most matter-of-fact fashion possible. It is okay to provide an owner(s) with a reminder about a rule when necessary but avoid making personal observations when delivering them. An owner may be an idiot but you don't have to tell them so. Which leads perfectly into...
4. All of your communication with the league as a whole should be done in a neutral tone - As commissioner you should never come off as snide or arrogant or the league will turn against you. You should speak as commissioner with the best interests of the league in mind. Bad mouthing other owners or embarrassing them is not in the league's best interest. You should be as impartial as possible, like a referee or umpire. If you insult the owners in any way you will damage your standing with the league. Keep your communication clear and to the point, especially when you are enforcing rules or correcting mistakes. The more irrelevant comments you make the more insulting you potentially become. "Player A is not available for FAAB bidding until he comes off the DL as noted in Section Three of the League Constitution" is good. "Player A is not available for FAAB until he comes off the DL. I have mentioned this many times and every owner should be clear on this by now. I DON"T HAVE TIME FOR THIS!" is bad.
   
5. Keep Fantasy League accounting separate from your personal accounting - Most commissioners also find themselves appointed the league secretary and treasurer as well. You should keep an organized ledger of all financial transactions made for the league. Keep all the receipts and paperwork involved. It is not that anyone doubts your honesty but a good commish can explain where every cent went. It would be a good idea to open a bank account just for the league (especially for big money leagues). My local leagues use the interest to subsidize banquets and our other scheduled get-togethers.
   
6. Do not assume that every bad trade is the result of collusion - Collusion is a lot rarer than most owners believe. The commish should only investigate a trade when the majority of the league insists on it (and the League Constitution should support such an action). A trade that appears to be bad may look bad when examined in a player A for player B context but there are many other factors to consider. When such an issue arises discretely ask each owner why they made the trade. You may be surprised to learn that Juan Pierre for Tim Lincecum is fair when examined in a different context. If the owners can explain their reasoning that should be the end of it. Just because you do not agree is not reason to veto a trade.
7. Keep every owner involved via good communication - As commissioner you should be in regular communication with every member of the league. Whether you do this by sending out regular newsletters and e-mails or by making phone calls is irrelevant, as long as every owner feels comfortable coming to you with any complaints or questions they may have. As commissioner you should be available to every owner for league related matters. The other owners should all know how to best contact you whether by e-mail or phone or both. You don't have to become everyone's best friend but you should treat them as fellow members of a very exclusive club, because they are.
   
8. Be vigilant - Nothing upsets owners more than retro-active changes because of mistakes. Every owner should be checking the rosters of every other owner but it is your job to make the corrections. If the rosters are constantly out of date or trades linger in limbo waiting to be input, owners will get angry and lose respect for you in your position. If you can't handle the work yourself let the league approve a co-commish to help you in your duties. Just be clear about who is responsible for what.

Are you the commissioner of a fantasy league? What methods does your league use to make things run smoothly and keep the owners happy? Discuss in the comments section.

Mail Bag: Trade for Grady Sizemore? and More!

I am mostly caught up with e-mails from last week. If you haven't seen a response or you've been holding back for some reason, now is the time. You can reach me at Jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com I usually respond within 24 hours and usually much much less than that. And remember the more information you give me the better my response will be. Thanks everyone, please spread the word!

I am in a 4x4 league with American League ONLY & a cap of $26.00 AND I am in 4th to last place & I have Francisco Liriano locked in at $2.10 / 2007-2010. I have been offered Chris Ray (see below) by a contending team, now I sort of still have faith in Liriano but was wondering if it would be worth it to me to trade Liriano for 1 of the following to get out of locking me into him next year at $2.10? Like I said I was offerd Chris Ray but I can counter with 1 of his other bench / injured guys? Your thoughts on the following:

1.) Should I trade Liriano for one of the guys below?

2.) If yes, then who would you want? Please give me top 3 choices if there are even a top 3 choices to list.

Ray, Chris RP BAL .10 2008
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS 1.80 2009
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS 1.00 2008
Aviles, Mike SS KC .30 2008
Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS 1.50 2007 - 2010
Brignac, Reid SS TB .20 2009

Thanks, Jay

Hey Jay,

I still have faith in Liriano coming around but at $2.10 (especially in a 4x4) I can see why you might like to get out from beneath the contract. Chris Ray at .10 isn't a bad option. His talent is great, unfortunately George Sherrill is pitching very well and saves may not come for a while. But at that price I think he'll have value as a quality middle reliever. I'm assuming that you are more in dump mode than fight for every point mode. I would ask for two off this list of players and see if he bites.

1. Mike Avilles .30 - Just announced he'll miss the rest of the season after having Tommy John Surgery. But this isn't as big a deal for hitter as it is for pitchers. I think he will greatly improve on his value in 2010.
2. Reid Brignac .20 - He proved in a recent call-up that he has some skills. The Rays are going to have to play him or trade him next year if they want to get any value from him. He is a former top prospect that underachieved for a while. I think he'll still be a top 10 SS in the AL in the not too distant future.
3. Jed Lowrie 1.00 - Pretty obvious that SS is a weak position in the AL. I like Lowrie to have a Pedroia-like development. This is not to say I think he'll have a MVP season but I think he'll be a very solid middle infielder.
4. Mike Lowell 1.80 - Lowell is hurting right now but I still believe he'll have an impact after the break. he just needs to have regular rest. At 1.80 he is a decent keep for 2010 if he stays in the AL.
5. Chris Ray .10 - A solid middle reliever who has a chance at saves in the future. See comments above.
6. Dice-K 1.50 - Dice-K needs to get straight again but I like his chances at a comeback. His stuff is still too good to ignore.

***

Hi Jon,

First off -- want to say that I love the site. Found you via a link on Razzball (another favorite of mine) and really appreciate the insight you provide.

Decided I'd take you up on the free advice offer. I have a trade in the works that could really define my season and I'm torn. I'm in a 10-team 6x6 roto league that counts OPS and Holds. I'm in a position where I need to clear an OF spot because I have Manny and Josh Hamilton coming back within the next several days-- both of whom I think will produce as expected. I also have Braun, Justin Upton, Crawford, Nelson Cruz and Brad Hawpe starting for me so I'm deep.

I have the opportunity to trade Cruz and Hawpe for Roy Halladay and Sizemore. Normally I would do this in a heartbeat but Grady's elbow (and the news that he will most likely need surgery in the offseason) scares the bejesus out of me. I can sweeten this deal by getting Slowey for Lowe as well (is that an upgrade?) and do need to gain significant ground in wins, WHIP and ERA so Halladay would be huge. I just worry that I'm giving up way too much offensive production for a guy that might get shut down in August because his team is 30 games out of first. On the other hand, if Grady stays healthy and produces then this appears to be a steal for me.

Is this trade worth the risk? Really look forward to your thoughts on this one.

Thanks Jon!

You have a pretty interesting situation here. You obviously have a stacked outfield.

Manny Ramirez
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Braun
Carl Crawford
Nelson Cruz
Brad Hawpe
Justin Upton

This is a very deep group. Any combination of five would be a winner for you and adding Sizemore to the mix just makes it that much more exciting. If you did the trade you would be left with an outfield and utility of Ramirez, Hamilton, Sizemore, Braun, Crawford, Upton -- even in a ten team league that is impressive. If Sizemore is healthy he is likely better than either Cruz or Hawpe. Trading one of these guys for Halladay is a great move for you. The question becomes is gaining Halladay worth the risk of trading Hawpe for Sizemore. I would have to say that it is.

In your best case scenario Sizemore can finish the season and plays up to his normal standards and provides you with close to 20/20 in the second half and you get an ace starter in Halladay. The worst case scenario is Sizemore gets hurt and you have to find a new utility player. You still get the upside of adding Halladay. You are definitely taking a risk but I think a good one. You always run the risk of injuries. Any one of your other outfielders could be hurt at any time, its just part of the game. Sizemore would not be the first player to play through this type of injury. I also would not be shocked to see the Indians DH Sizemore quite a bit and give Hafner some starts at first base.

I would do this deal. Thanks for sharing with me.

***

Hi Jon,

Need some more pitching advice for week 14. Again, I start 6 (min. 4 SP, min 1 RP and 1 utility) in a 12 team points based H2H League.


• Correia @ ARI (Davis), @ SF (Zito)
• Cueto @ PHI (Hamels), @ NYM (Santana)
• Dempster vs. ATL (Vasquez), vs. STL (most likely to happen if CHI reshuffles its rotation right before the break
• Greinke @ DET (French)
• Jackson vs. CLE (Lee)
• Marquis vs. WAS (Stammen), vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
• Danks vs. CLE (Pavano)
• Nolasco @ ARI (Haren)

• Franklin @ MIL (3), @ CHI (3)
• Aardsma vs. BAL (3), vs. TEX (4)
• Soria @ DET (3), @ BOS (4)

Thanks,

Sean

Hey Sean,

Hopefully I can do better than last week for you...

Greinke @DET is a must start.
Jackson vs CLE
Danks vs CLE
Nolasco @ARI
Correia @ARI and @ SF
Soria
Franklin

Good luck!

***

Hey Jon

Wanted to get your thoughts on a few trade offers I'm thinking about. This league includes OPS so please bear that in mind.

Jason Bay's owner is looking to move him and pick up some speed. Here are 2 offers he's posed to me:
1. Bay & Stephen Drew for Kinsler & Victorino
2. Bay & Zimmerman for Victorino & Adrian Gonzalez

Thanks a ton!

Dan

Hey Dan,

I'm not excited about either deal for you. I would not do the Kinsler deal. The Gonzalez deal is doable (I would not do it but it isn't an awful deal) but if he's really desperate for steals I would expect him to make you a better offer. One that doesn't end up taking away more power than you actually get back. Offer him Victorino for just Bay that is much fairer than you throwing in a top player for a mid-tier performer.

Good luck.

Moving Up: Nyjer Morgan OF Washington Nationals

Outfielder Nyjer Morgan is not a player destined to be a long term fantasy star he is 29 years old and in his first season as a fulltime regular. But he does have his uses in NL-only leagues and should see a nice boost to his fantasy value after yesterday's trade that sent him from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. If you own Morgan you should be very happy right now.

Morgan is batting .277/.351/.356 with two homeruns and 18 stolen bases. The Nationals plan to have Morgan play centerfield and leadoff everyday. He will be in front of a much better offense and should see a boost in his runs scored and even his RBI totals. Manny Acta tends to allow his players to run like mad which should see Morgan approach 40-50 stolen bases this season. Make no mistake, Morgan is not a efficient base stealer but unless your league penalizes for caught stealings (or you are a Nats fan), it really isn't your problem.

Morgan has the skills to take advantage of his speed. He is an excellent contact hitter. He doesn't walk much but enough to know that a pitcher has to throw around the plate to get him out. He isn't a free swinger, he waits for his pitch. He has amazing speed and may be one of the ten fastest players in MLB. He doesn't have much power and hits most pitches on the ground. But is more likely to smack the occassional homerun than a player like Juan Pierre. Just not much more likely. He is an excellent defensive outfielder which means the Nats will be ,motivated to keep him in the lineup even during mini-slumps. He is not a great player but there is also little not to like.

Morgan should be owned in all NL-only and deep leagues and in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Although I like his value this season, Morgan is not a very long term keeper candidate. If an owner in your league is desperate for steals I would strongly consider making an offer. Treat Morgan as you would any speed-centric player.

I am still answering the e-mails that accumulated during my computerless weekend. If you are waiting for an answer you should see it in the next day or so.

Roundtable: Greinke, Verlander, or Lester

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. This is one of my favorite fantasy sites and you should definitely become a frequent visitor. Brett Greenfield asks us a loaded question this week:

Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon
Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?

The collective answers are fairly interesting. All three pitchers received votes. I was the only one to pick my choice but I'm okay with that. I like being on the outside of the groupthink.

Mailbag - Comeback Players and Pitching Matchups

I'm struggling to get back on schedule. I hope to be there no later than Wednesday. Here's acouple of e-mails questions Iwas able to answer recently. I try to get to every question or request within 24 hours. If you have a question please feel free to send it to me at Jon@AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com or via twitter (@bigjonwilliams), or facebook (there is a link in the sidebar).

Hey Jon,

I was looking at my FA list today after a week where I was defeated by
a score of 8-5-1. It was a really down week because that was the first
time someone other than my buddy Max Estes beat me in this league and we are in
the 3rd season. Anyways, I was looking to add guys that could possibly
help me in the future so I was wondering about guys like:

-Garrett Atkins: will he receive enough playing time to
actually be a force in fantasy, and will it be too hard to roster him on my team
where I already own Youkilis, MigCab, and Howard for 1st and 3rd and INF
positions.

-Alex Gordon: He worries me because he is coming off hip
surgery, but in a minor league game yesterday he cracked a 2 run bomb.
Will he be able to comeback and make a force to be reckoned with. Also the
same worry about being able to roster him on my team because he is 1st and
3rd.

-Ryan Doumit: What's the deal about holding onto 2
catchers? Is it a good idea to have 2, or not because up until now I
really haven't had any back up for Soto, but Soto gets rested at least once a
week, and I am worried about Doumit being able to hit with a wrist injury he is
recovering from.

-Chris Iannetta: Same catcher question as Doumit, but also
will Iannetta get the playing time to make a comeback this season?

-Howie Kendrick: I know I have asked you about him before,
but when do you think he will come up and do you think he will be on his game
when he does. My only second baseman is Robinson Cano and sometimes he
worries me because of his past, but this year he had a great start so will he
have a bad ending?

-Clay Buchholz: When will Boston bring him up? Will he
make a fantasy impact? What's your take on him because I wouldn't mind
finding roster spot for this kid.

-Chris Volstad: I was eyeing Volstad earlier this year, but
couldn't get him. Then his owner dropped him after his struggles in 4
consecutive games. What do you think about Volstad?

-Gary

Hey Gary,

Atkins seems to be warming up a bit but I think he'll be sharing time the rest of the season.

I like Gordon. I don't think the Royals will let him come back before his health is no longer a factor so I would pick him up if you can.

I like Doumit but wrist injuries can sap a player's power for a while. Carrying two catchers is a good idea when you have the room. Especially when Soto is your number one and he's been at best inconsistent.

I think the Rockies will have a tough time keeping Ianetta out of the lineup if he's hitting but he will definitely have to earn his way back.

With Macier Izturis doing well Kendrick will get plenty of time to find his way in the minors. He'll be back when the team and the player have their confidence restored. There's just no way to tell when that will be.

I believe Buchholz will be stuck in the minors until September. Unless there is a trade that sends him elsewhere. He isn't the problem, it's the clogged Red Sox roster.

If you can stash Volstad on your bench I would grab him especially in keeper leagues. He should come around soon. He has great stuff and should be rostered in most leagues.

Good luck, Gary.

Hi Jon,

Who would be my best pitching lineup this upcoming week? I play in
a 12 team points based head to head league. I can start 6 pitchers -
minimum 4 SP and minimum 1 RP and 1 RP or SP.
My initial thought was to start
Danks, Greinke, Jackson, Nolasco plus Aardsma and Franklin. But, I am
intrigued in starting Correia and I am always leary to starting to SP who pitch
against each other. Thoughts?

Danks @ KC (Greinke)
Greinke vs. CHW (Danks)
Jackson @ MIN (Liriano)
Nolasco vs. WAS (Olsen) vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
Correia vs. HOU (Rodriguez)
Cueto vs. ARI (Garland)
Dempster vs. MIL (McClung)

Aardsma @ NYY (3), @ BOS (3)
Franklin vs. SF (4), @ CIN (3)
Soria vs. MIN (3), vs. CHW (4)

Thanks,
Sean

Hey Sean,

Sorry I'm late getting back to you Sean.I'm still dealing with my computer problems. I would go like this. I like Cueto's strikeout ability against Arizona's free swingers more than Nolasco against the patient lineup of the Nationals. I don't worry about pitchers going against each other even if I'm desperate for wins. I play the best match-ups and hope that everyone pitches well.

Grienke
Jackson
Danks
Ceuto
Franklin
Soria

Good luck, Sean.

I Had to Remember Michael Jackson

Thursday afternoon as I sat computerless watching Home Improvement, Just Shoot Me, Yes Dear, and Everybody Loves Raymond (anything to keep my mind off the lack of laptop) my brother called to tell me that Michael Jackson was dead. I guess at the point he called Michael Jackson was technically in a coma and not officially declared dead but it was close enough that many news outlets were already reporting it. I flipped away from TBS to watch the coverage on CNN, I wanted to know what was happening. It was sort of sad. The hundreds of people that have nothing better to do than camp outside Jackson's home and follow him everywhere he goes, had abandoned their camp to gather outside the hospital where Michael Jackson was brought by ambulance. I usually don't feel sorry for people like that but today they would soon realize that the object of their obsession was forever gone from their lives.

I loved Michael Jackson. I grew up with him. As I later told my father, Michael Jackson was my Elvis, my Beatles. I remember just as music was becoming a minor obsession of mine playing Thriller over and over again on my cheap turntable. I remember the inner sleeve had some drawings and the lyrics to all of the songs. I spent hours memorizing every track and pretending that I was in a music video. My brothers who shared a room with me hated that I would play the same tracks over and over again. But that was how I always responded when I came across something I really liked. I wanted to absorb it as much as possible. I did the same things with other albums and books, and comics.

The combination of facial surgery and disease caused Michael Jackson to be labeled a bit of a freak in the later days. Mostly by people who never loved him that much. Isn't it funny how when you truly love something or someone the flaws in it are just character enhancing? I didn't believe the worst of the rumors about him. I guess I've been falsely accused of too many things that I didn't actually do, not to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I wish that somehow Michael Jackson had managed to win back the respect of the world before his death. Yes he was still insanely popular but it became more about the spectacle than the music or the man himself. This was also MJ's goal at the time of his death. He has a record out there somewhere that was to be released relatively soon. I assume that record company exects being what they are will have it out even sooner now. His funeral will be an event that takes place on National Television. I just hope that the networks find people that truly loved him to make their ratings bonanza a tribute to Michael Jackson rather than just one last chance to capitalize on him.

Michael Jackson: HIStory - Video Greatest Hits

More Computer Problems

Yesterday my laptop fell and the hard drive actually came out. It was reinstalled but no longer works. I'm working on getting a new one ready as I write this. Yes, I have impossibly bad luck with computers...

To those waiting for responses to e-mails I apologize and will get to them as soon as possible.

The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Fantasy Owners

There is more to being a Champion than having a good draft or making killer trades. They obviously help but if you really want to win you need to adapt the attitude of an effective owner.

1. Be Proactive - An effective owner is always looking for ways to improve his team. Building an effective team starts at the draft but it is not all about trading after that. Without making snap judgments you need to identify your shortcomings and work to fix them. This is not all about trading. The waiver wire and FAAB are very useful tools that are in place to allow you to fill holes and make small improvements. Even small upgrades can make a large impact over the course of the season.
   
2. Begin with the End in Mind - Before the draft or auction, before making a trade, or even making a waiver claim the effective owner knows exactly what he hopes to achieve with any given move. He has considered the consequences and the benefits of his plan. Every move you make should be to further your ultimate goal of winning. If it does not move you towards a championship you should reconsider.
3. Put First Things First - Do not waste the time you spend managing your team on fruitless pursuits. David Wright may be your favorite player but trading Evan Longoria for him would be a mistake. Realize that your first priority is to win and not to build a collection of your favorite players. All of your focus should be on moving your team towards a championship.
4. Think Win/Win - Any deals you make should be made without sacrificing the good relationship between you and the other party. Don't use trickery or any other form of deception to complete a deal. Because if you do you may ruin any chance of making further deals with that team. Your trading partner should leave the table satisfied that he accomplished something even if they did not accomplish as much as you did.
5. Seek First to Understand, Then to be Understood - Before you can make an effective deal you need to understand the needs of your potential trading partner. By providing your rival with what he needs, you increase the opportunity to gain what you in turn require from the deal. Put yourself in their shoes and ask yourself if you would make the same deal as the owner of the other team. When you are satisfied from both their perspective and yours, you will have created a good offer.
6. Synergize - Work to create good relationships with the other team owners. The more open the lines of communication in your league the stronger the league will be as a whole. A strong league has fewer conflicts and misunderstandings. Work with the other owners to write a constitution and set of rules that satisfies all of the owners. Why have rules that a majority of the league does not like? A group of happy (or at least content) owners makes a stronger league.
7. Sharpen the Saw - Effective owners never stop learning. They constantly investigate new strategies and advanced statistics. They study the players at all levels of competition. They watch baseball and think about the game. Effective owners never think they have an unbeatable strategy because they know that eventually it will be countered. When an owner no longer studies the game he ceases to be effective.
   

The Return of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto

If you noticed more smiles than usual around the water cooler today it may be that you are looking at the fantasy owners of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto. It does not matter what format you were playing in or how good your team has done in the meanwhile. Getting one (or even both) of these guys back in action is like pulling off a major trade in which you gave up absolutely nothing. It feels almost as good as it hurt when you lost them in the first place.

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore is avoiding rehab in the minor leagues for the elbow injury that has bothered him since spring training. The Cleveland Indians have been calling the injury an inflamed elbow. The Indians also caution that any further set backs will likely result in season-ending elbow surgery. Sizemore is insisting that his elbow feels good and that he did not feel any pain when he tested the elbow over the weekend. We can only hope that he is telling the truth and that the tests were strenuous enough to be conclusive.

Playing through the pain did not do anything good for Sizemore's early season numbers. When he hit the disabled list he was batting .223/.309/.417 with nine homers and seven stolen bases (of 13 attempts) in 206 at-bats. It is very difficult to measure how much the injury played into his start. His walk rate was down, his strikeout rate was up but other than that everything (excluding the SB-rate) seemed to be typical of Sizemore.

There is no avoiding the fact that Sizemore is a risk for fantasy teams. A sore elbow has the potential to alter his swing and significantly change his results. It could also make him more cautious on the base paths. All that said if I had the opportunity to add Sizemore to one of my rosters I would do it without hesitation. The risk is extremely high but so is the reward. Don't part with your best cogs to add him but if you can manage it without them, I would endorse the move in leagues of every format.

Joey Votto

Unlike Sizemore, Votto has been rehabbing in the minor leagues and looks on his game. What exactly was ailing Votto has been kept under wraps by Votto and the Cincinnati Reds. We know that he had an inner-ear infection which was complicated by continuing to fly with the condition. He was forced to leave a few games with dizziness. But then he was placed on the disabled list with what the Reds called a stress-related problem. This could be almost anything from stress over the vertigo to a more serious problem they probably exacerbated by not sidelining him when the problem first occurred. Apparently the secrecy over his condition is at the request of Votto himself.

From the National Post:

"Have faith in me as a person that I would make the right decisions for myself and the ball club. I would never sell the team or the city of Cincinnati short,'' he said. "I think I give every single Cincinnati Reds fan exactly what they pay for. I feel like at times, I give more, because [baseball] engrosses my life. It takes a lot of my time emotionally and physically --off the field, too.'

Votto was on fire to start the season and was blasting homeruns even while suffering from the ear infection complications. He went on the disabled list with a slash line of .357/.464/.627 with eight homeruns and two stolen bases in just 126 at-bats. It appears to me that this was totally inline with Votto's development into a great baseball player.

I think the risk with Votto is minimal. He looks and sounds healthy and in a positive state of mind according to local reports. Which is extremely significant if stress alone truly did lead to his DL stint.

From the National Post:

"I was just joking around with people," said Votto as he smiled through a post-game interview on Sunday. "I was in such a good mood today because it's been such a struggle getting through games that I couldn't help but have a smile on my face."

I believe that Joey Votto will go directly back to proving himself one of the best players in the National League. He should hit for a great batting average and very nice power. His owners should not hesitate to activate him. If for some reason he is available in your league grabbing him should be your number one priority.

The Nationals' Search for a Closer...

The Washington Nationals are not the first team to struggle to find an acceptable closer. They have a bullpen full of cast-offs, youngsters, and specialists placed in unfavorable roles. Much of the blame can also be placed on manager Manny Acta who is not a very good manager of the bullpen and a little too protective of his starters. Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock could both probably grow into the role given time. Joe Beimel and Jesus Colome could do the job if used correctly. Even Julian Tavarez...okay, maybe not Tavarez. But the point is that an effective closer is created not born and Manny Acta needs a reliever to come almost fully formed before he'll be able to spot the closer in the stone.

Although Mike MacDougal has not yet blown the opportunity to cement himself as the latest Washington closer I have my doubts they he can hold on to the job. This is mostly because of things like his 1.87 WHIP, 7.80 BB9 , and mediocre 5.40 K9. The good news is I believe a very good candidate for the role has just presented himself. His name is Tyler Clippard.

Clippard was well on his way to becoming a mediocre, end-of-the-rotation starter. I do not mean that to be insulting. There are thousands of people that would do almost anything short of murder to be an end-of-the-rotation starter on a major league baseball team. But being a starter is no longer the plan for Clippard. This season the Nationals moved him into the bullpen at Triple-A Syracuse with extremely good results. Clippard's already good stuff suddenly looks great as has often happened when starters move to the bullpen. In 37.2 innings, Clippard has 41 strikeouts to just 15 walks. That is not stellar control but it is a huge improvement over MacDougal. His 2009 era is just 0.96 with a WHIP of 0.93. Now a lot of that is good fortune, he will not maintain .216 BABIP forever. He is an an extreme fly ball pitcher but has always managed to limit the damage from homeruns...in the minors anyway. A lot of those flyballs are of the infield variety which is a pitcher skill that is not mentioned often.

In most leagues you will be able to pick up Clippard easily or FAAB him for a buck or so. I believe that it will prove to be a very wise choice for those on the hunt for saves. At the very least I think Clippard will be a fine relief pitcher, of value to NL-only teams whether he closes or not.

Dice-K Removed From Red Sox Rotation

It was obvious that eventually the Red Sox would have to make a change in their rotation. With John Smoltz healthy and ready to go and every other starter currently outperforming him, Daisuke Matsuzaka was the odd man out. This is from a Boston.com report on manager Terry Francona's afternoon press conference.

"We need to get him looked at physically," said Francona. "He's gonna get looked at by (Red Sox trainer) Tom Gill. He's going to get tests done. There's a potential for MRIs. All of that information will be coming very soon."

Terry Francona and the Red Sox seem to be blaming Dice-K's appearances in the World Baseball Classic for leaving him unprepared for the regular season. While he is currently only assured of missing one start I believe that the Red Sox intend to see his velocity returned to its former level and an improvement in his control before he will pitch in the major leagues again.

This also takes some of the heat off the Red Sox to trade one of their rotation starters. Brad Penny has been a competent starter for the Red Sox and should continue to be as long as he stays healthy. Unfortunately this will do nothing to release Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden from their minor league purgatory.

Dice-K owners should thank their lucky stars that they won't be punished with his poor statistics for a while. I would not drop Matsuzaka if you have the ability to stash him in your reserves. Dice-K is a very talented pitcher and when he is "on" he is an asset to a fantasy team.

Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
1999	Lions (NPB)	7.55	4.35	0.70	0.196	1.17	0.236	82.20%	4.12
2000	Lions (NPB)	7.73	5.10	0.64	0.218	1.35	0.267	68.20%	4.18
2001	Lions (NPB)	8.01	4.38	1.01	0.214	1.25	0.253	75.60%	4.44
2002	Lions (NPB)	9.57	1.84	1.60	0.225	1.02	0.267	81.50%	4.28
2003	Lions (NPB)	9.97	2.92	0.60	0.232	1.18	0.314	75.90%	2.97
2004	Lions (NPB)	7.83	2.59	0.43	0.286	1.42	0.357	80.20%	3.07
2005	Lions (NPB)	9.46	2.05	0.54	0.221	1.03	0.295	78.90%	2.71
2006	Lions (NPB)	9.66	1.64	0.63	0.208	0.92	0.277	79.70%	2.56
2007	Red Sox	8.84	3.52	1.10	0.249	1.32	0.306	73.90%	4.23
2007	Red Sox	7.78	3.66	0.46	0.284	1.53	0.353	67.60%	3.54
2008	Red Sox (AAA)	9.00	1.80	0.00	0.221	1.00	0.305	60.00%	1.80
2008	Red Sox	8.27	5.05	0.64	0.213	1.32	0.267	80.60%	4.03
2008	Red Sox	9.00	5.06	1.69	0.274	1.63	0.325	82.60%	5.26
2009	Red Sox (AAA)	10.80	3.86	0.00	0.215	1.20	0.323	86.70%	2.34
2009	Red Sox	8.74	4.63	2.06	0.374	2.20	0.441	68.90%	5.72

Trade Advice: Chipper/Slowey for Valverde/Bartlett

Jon,

I have a deep pitching staff in a 12 person H2H league. I was looking to shop Kevin Slowey and Chipper Jones for Jose Valverde and Jason Bartlett. Is this a good deal?

Best Regards,

Robert

Hey Robert,

Thanks for reading. I really appreciate it.

Let's look at all of the players involved individually and then make a decision on the trade offer.

As I'm sure you know, Jose Valverde has had a few injury problems this season. Thankfully, the problems have been with his calf rather than his arm. Assuming the leg is fully healed he should have no problems. When healthy he is one of the better closing talents in baseball. I think he'll have a big second half.

Jason Bartlett is having the best season of his career thus far. He will continue to steal bases at a terrific rate. But I do not believe he can maintain his present 27 percent line drive rate, and .rage is 410 BABIP. His batting average is likely to keep dipping through the second half. His plate discipline has improved slightly. He is swinging at better pitches. Unfortunately, it hasn't translated into an increased walk rate. I believe he has become a better hitter but I do not think his power increase is real. I think he'll hit for a decent batting average, steal lots of bases but without the power he showed to start the season.

I like Kevin S lowey's potential a lot. He rarely walks anyone and has an excellent K/BB rate which is a sign of a talented pitcher. On the unfortunate side, Slowey is a fly ball pitcher. He is often hurt by the homerun, which is what led to his poor start this season. He has turned things around lately and I believe that he will finish the season strongly.

Chipper Jones is an excellent hitter with good power. He is having his typical season of high productivity between bouts with nagging injuries. He is presently having a problem with a sore toe but is mostly battling through it. I think he'll finish the season in this same typical fashion with a .300-plus average and 20-plus homers.

So what would you gain from this trade? Definitely stolen bases and saves, which I assume is what you are hoping to gain. You will lose some power if I'm right about Bartlett's drop off. You will also lose some innings and wins (naturally going from a starter to a reliever). I don't know the rest of your team but I assume your remaining starters are up to the job and you probably are not depending on Chipper's power.

I would do it if I were you.

Thanks again for reading.

Jon Williams
Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Hot Prospect: Kyle Blanks

The Padres have announced the call up of their number one prospect, Kyle Blanks. Although his best position is first base, Blanks will start in the Padres outfield four or five days per week. He only qualifies at first base right now in most leagues. If you have seen Kyle Blanks in action you may wonder about the 6'6'', 250-plus pounder's ability to cover the huge territory of left field in Petco Park. However Blanks is every athletic and considers playing good defense a point of pride.

Blanks is a very talented hitter. Throughout his minor league career he has shown the ability to hit for a high batting average. This year, his first at triple-A has been a little different. He seems to have traded some contact for increased power. His 2009 K-rate was 27 percent, but he had 12 homeruns in 233 at-bats. He runs well and will steal the occasional base. He is a fly ball hitter who also hits a considerable number of line drives.

I love Blanks as a prospect but his contact rate this season concerns me. Blanks is at his best when he is making good contact and hitting line drives to all fields. My gut feeling is that he will do very well. But if he maintains his current contact rate he may not hit for much of an average. And we all know that power numbers are reduced at Petco. He should be useful in all NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues.

Statistics via FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Padres (A)	10.50%	25.60%	0.382	0.455	0.162	2.3	0.365	0.389
2007	Padres (A+)	8.60%	21.10%	0.380	0.540	0.239	6.3	0.338	0.403
2008	Padres (AA)	9.40%	18.30%	0.404	0.514	0.189	4.3	0.366	0.408
2009	Padres (AAA)	14.30%	27.00%	0.393	0.485	0.202	2.1	0.342	0.391

Which Fantasy Sports Do You Play? (check all)

Avoiding the Fantasy Baseball Blues

There comes a time in the Fantasy Baseball Season when a certain type of owner begins to lose interest. This is usually because they realize that the team they have built is not capable of winning as presently composed. Although I am not a fan of giving up or rebuilding, (rebuilding is for wussies) I thought I would write a series of articles about how to deal with the Fantasy Baseball Blues as you struggle through the rebuilding process. Whether you choose to keep trying to win in the present season or to set yourself up for the next season, it requires incredible patience. I will deal with how to handle the rebuilding process itself but I think it is still a bit early for that.

Sports Betting
When your team is not competitive you have to find ways to keep the adrenaline flowing. One of the extremely fun ways is to bet on baseball games. This will give you a reason to dig through the box scores and study the MLB totals. You need that drive to win and be the best to succeed at MLB betting. The same skills that make you a success at Fantasy Baseball will also help you when you are betting on baseball. Studying match ups and MLB run lines (just like NFL point spreads for the unfamiliar) will give you an edge if you can do it well. You will not find information for betting on baseball in your local paper as easily as you will the NFL lines and the NFL game spreads but there are websites that can help. Betting can be a ton of fun.

Short-Season Fantasy Games
There are also plenty of short season fantasy games available. It seems as if a new one pops up every day. These games are getting very popular as mid-season distractions. I wrote a review of Paper Sports a few months back. You pick a fantasy team but the season is much shorter. You can set-up week long or even just day long seasons. To excel at this version of the game you really need to study your trends and match-ups. Picking up Ryan Braun and CC Sabathia is not always the best choice. Figuring out the best choices is a major part of the challenge.

Second Half Competitions
More and more fantasy commissioner sites are offering fantasy games that feature just the second half of the season or the playoffs. This is like traditional fantasy baseball but with a much more intense season. Drafting in a league where the players are already off to horrible, bad, mediocre, good, or great starts may seem easier but it is not. You will have to decide if the hottest players are for real or if the worst players will come on strong. Those with a keen eye for sabermetrics can really rack up the wins in games like this. You can use the advanced metrics available on sites like Fan Graphs and The Hardball Times to measure the impact that good or bad luck is having on a player’s seasons.

Fantasy Football
The Fantasy Football season is also just around the corner. The magazines are just hitting the stands and the Fantasy Football Blogs are just starting to crank out the advice. Mock drafts are starting and the forums are heating up. Fantasy Football is a different beast than Fantasy Baseball. Football has the vast majority of its games on just one day of the week. If you have a big-screen TV and the right premium subscriptions you can watch essentially every one of your players perform. Fantasy Football prep can be a fun way to distract yourself from the Fantasy Baseball Blues. Some of you have even discovered the infancy stage of Advanced Fantasy Football. I am only currently posting just once or twice a week at this point but soon I will start cranking out my sleeper alerts and reporting on mock drafts.

However, by far the best way to rid you of the Fantasy Baseball Blues is to turn things around. Get aggressive and stomp your opponents for the rest of the year. Make trades; spin your roster through the waiver wire. With a little creativity you can really drive your rivals crazy with a stunning comeback. I guarantee you it can be done. If you don’t see it yourself, send me your league rosters (Jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com) and I will find it for you.

The 2009 First Half Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

There are just two weeks left to vote for your MLB All-Stars. I tend to pick my favorite fantasy players on my All-Star ballots, which is usually a pretty good indicator that they deserve a spot. If this were my fantasy team it would probably be a little short on stolen bases. But then it would win every other category running away...

Catchers

Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Honorable Mention: Pablo Sandoval, Brian McCann

Corner Infielders

1B - Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
3B - Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
CI - Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins

Honorable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder

Middle Infielders

2B - Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
SS - Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays
MI - Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

Honorable Mention: Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill

Outfielders

OF - Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies
OF - Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
OF - Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
OF - Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
OF - Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

Honorable Mention: Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon

Pitching Staff

Rotation:

1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
2. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
5. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Bullpen:

1. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
2. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
3. Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

So these are my choices for Fantasy Baseball's All-Star's. Who are your All-Stars?

What's Wrong With Russell Martin?

Russell Martin is a player that usually gets drafted a bit higher than he should. That is obviously because he has been one of the better fantasy catchers available. But this year his power and even his batting average seem to have completely evaporated. But it is very rare for a 26-year old to degrade this quickly. So it must be something that can be fixed.

Martin's walk rate is about the same as always hovering around 14 percent. His strikeout rate is slightly elevated at 19.6 percent, which is high when compared to his career average of 15.7 percent. While his BABIP is okay at .298, it is low for Martin whose career BABIP of .312 is fitting for a player with his speed and plate discipline. His GB/LD/FB rates look almost exactly the same as previous seasons.

It is worth noting that his power began to evaporate in the second half of the 2008 season. After the All-Star Break, Martin hit just .260/.371/.336 in 223 at-bats. That line looks an awful lot like this season's .239/.348/.282 slash.

Steiner Sports Los Angeles Dodgers Joe Torre Autographed Baseball

This looks like a combination of horrible luck and some mental issues. He is not doing anything dramatically different. Scouts, including fantasy expert Jason Grey, have noted that he doesn't seem to be swinging the bat with authority. I think rather than looking at video, or taking extra reps in the batting cage, Martin needs someone to kick him in the ass and motivate him. Joe Torre probably isn't that guy. Maybe Don Mattingly could get to him.

This spring a lot of sites picked up on this Globe and Mail quote:

"Martin, 26, has big plans for himself and the Dodgers, who are waiting patiently for Manny Ramirez before declaring themselves favorites in the NL West. One of them involves a calmer approach. He's added yoga to his training regimen. He's resolved to sleep better and eat more carefully. He's settled down with a steady girlfriend, and while babies aren't in the picture, 'We are practicing a lot,' he says, smiling."

I've played enough sports to know that calm only seems like a good thing. Most athletes need to get fired up and excited in order to play at their highest levels. It is the reason behind the fist pumps, the celebration dances and the high fives. This is just my opinion but taking Martin out for a bacon cheeseburger, some greasy onion rings, and a drunken fat chick might be the best thing for him.

But more seriously, I don't think Martin has lost any skill or that there is anything physically wrong with him. Unfortunately, I think Martin has lost some of his motivation to play the game, which does not bode well for fantasy leaguers. I would be very willing to trade Martin if I owned him. I would not acquire Martin unless I were receiving a very good deal.

What's Wrong with Russell Martin?

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show

I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show on Tuesday night at 10:30. This is one of the most popular Fantasy Baseball Shows in all the land. Please check it out!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-General/2009/06/17/The-Fantasy-Baseball-Roundtable-Radio-Show

Trade Advice: Carlos Lee/Edwin Jackson for Adam Lind/CC Sabathia

The following is a request for trade advice I received by e-mail. It has been slightly edited for length and clarity.

Hey Jon, I have been in talks with an owner in my Keeper League who owns CC Sabathia. The guy I am talking to wants power hitters and is interested in Edwin Jackson. I really like Edwin Jackson as a keeper league because I feel like he'll continue to get better and better. I offered him a trade and let him know I was really only interested in Carl Crawford and Sabathia from his team. I would give Carlos Lee, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Rodney, and Carl Pavano for Carl Crawford, CC Sabathia, and David Ortiz (this was before his recent hot streak). He actually liked the framework of the deal if we could pull out Carl Crawford. Adam Lind is another guy on his team I would not mind owning. But I do not know if I completely trust his season let alone his future talent. I have been told good things many times and have read about his future, but I do not want to create a gaping hole in my offense where Carlos Lee once stood to give my pitching just a small increase. I also own Nolasco, Peavy, Lincecum, Hanson, Beckett, Price, Harang, Vazquez and Ervin Santana. I feel that I have a pretty strong rotation...plus if Santana of LA can turn it around and Pavano can stay solid as well as Vazquez I have a pretty strong rotation. I just need some advice if you can dish some out. Really just another opinion besides my buddy who is also in the league. Thanks Jon. -Gary

Hey Gary,

I don't think you're desperate enough for pitching to do this deal without Carl Crawford. But it may interest you to know that Carlos Lee and Adam Lind are much closer than most realize at this point.

Carlos Lee: .313/.363/.520 w/ 29runs, 11hr, 40rbi, 5sb
Adam Lind: .300/.364/.534 w/ 37runs, 12hr, 45rbi, 1sb

Unless there are salaries attached that I'm unaware of, these two players are virtually the same. Lind is probably a little bit better statistically but to a very small degree. He also plays in a better lineup which gives him superior runs/rbi totals. I do think Lind could hit a wall soon, but he seems to have the skills to adjust. I think he'll be a very good hitter for a long time.

Edwin Jackson also compares very well to CC Sabathia this year. If Jackson played for the Yankees he would be on the verge of becoming a huge star. Trading Jackson for Sabathia would net you very little if anything.

CC Sabathia: 5-4, 3.68era, 1.13whip, 6.48 K9, 2.81 BB9, 3.74 FIP
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 2.24era, 1.03whip, 6.62 K9, 2.34 BB9, 3.27 FIP

Since these two parts of the trade balance out so well the remainder of the deal becomes Fernando Rodney and Carl Pavano for David Ortiz. I believe that Ortiz will have a strong second half of the season and be a solid if not great player to own from this point. But you would be giving up a solid closer and a solid starter for a player that to this point has been nothing but disappointing. I think that price is too high.

Even if you can afford to give up the saves and innings you'll get from Rodney and Pavano I don't see enough of a gain for you. A solid closer alone should bring you a solid veteran already having a good season. And as you mentioned, your pitching staff is already potentially very strong. You would be making this trade just to make it.

Good luck Gary, let me know if I can help any further.

A Name to Know: Ryota Igarashi

According to NPBtracker.com, right-handed relief pitcher Ryota Igarashi has accumulated the service time to become an international free agent. Igarashi could have become a Japanese free agent last season (and made much more money) but elected to wait for the complete free agency that allows him to consider offers from MLB teams.

“Right now I’m only thinking about staying in shape and winning. I want to think it (free agency) over carefully in the offseason”… and from Yakult’s front office: “it’s his decision so we don’t know what will happen, but he is one person that is needed on our team”.

The 30-years old Igarashi is one of the hardest throwers in Japan. His fastball has been clocked at better than 98 miles-per-hour. He also throws a split-fastball at around 90 mph. He allows a few more walks than is ideal but makes up for it by striking out better than a batter an inning. He has been primarily a middle reliever in Japan but has shown the ability to close games.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Contend or Bust!

This week we have the pleasure of hosting the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. I asked a question on the minds of many fantasy owners at this point in the season...

You find yourself in 7th place in a 15 team mixed 5x5 league. You've just lost your best hitter to injury and your pitching isn't that good. If you really want to win, what do you do?

We received a bunch of great answers. If you find yourself in a tight race or falling behind, the advice from this group of experts just might show you how to pull ahead.

Mike Podhorzer – Fantasy Pros 911

Find the nearest tissue box, wipe the tears away, and gently explain to yourself that due to some bad luck, this just might not be your year. Or you could simply come to terms with the fact that you may just not be a very good fantasy baseball player! On a serious note, it really depends on a number of factors that were not given in the question. Absolute rank in the standings means a lot less than how many points you are behind a money spot. It is also important to know how close the category totals are and how easy it is to gain points. I would look over my roster to see how many under performers I own and if there is any hope for a rebound for these players. I would be much more confident in a second half run if my team was loaded with slow starters than if I had players performing right at expectations. There is really no great piece of advice for this situation, other than simply trading for better value, trying your best to acquire pitchers whose skills are better than their ERAs suggest and crossing your fingers that your team enjoys better fortune over the rest of the season. Panic moves and trades just to "shake things up" will probably do more harm than good.

Tommy Landry – RotoExperts

At this point in the season, it is time to pull out the stops if you are muddling in the middle and suffering from injuries. I would start working the wire on my pitching ASAP, shooting to snag guys on a tear before they cool off or hot prospects facing MLB batters for the first time. Even though most roto leagues have a pitching start limit, don't let that scare you off of maxing out your starts as soon as possible in this scenario. There are always useful MRs out there in mixed leagues, and once you use up all your starts, you can get cheap wins and Ks with respectable ratios from a long list of relievers down the stretch. For hitting, now is the time to cut the dead weight and start gambling on players who are likely to be called up over the summer. Look at what guys like Alexi Casilla and Mike Aviles did late last season. Keep an eye on guys like Matt LaPorta, Eric Young Jr. (will be a huge speed source once he's up, but beware the BA and OBP), and even Alcides Escobar, for example. And faithfully check the waiver wire daily, because I've managed to snag some gems already this year, including John Lackey in a shallow league and Casey Blake (seriously, look at the numbers) in a very deep experts league. Most of all, never surrender!

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority

My typical answer is to trade pitching for hitting, even if you don't have much. If I had one good starter, I would shop him. If I felt I could find saves on the waiver wire, I would shop my best closer or even package up two closers for a top bat. Beyond that, I wouldn't do anything. I am not a fan of shaking a team up for the sake of shaking it up. At the time of this writing, 64% of the season remains. Plenty of time for a 7th place team to climb the standings if you believe in your players.

Patrick Cain – Albany Times Union

You are in seventh right now, congrats you're on a one-way street to irrelevancy so the hitter you lost probably doesn't matter too much. And for your pitching? Well, there is not much on your wire either I bet. So gear up, it is time to focus and focus hard on an achievable strategy.

I will assume your "best hitter" is one that has power. Ditch HRs. Ok, don't abandon them, but settle for finishing in the bottom 3. RBI are going to lag too, but that depends greatly on your other positions. As for offense, I'd try something like going for AVG, SB, R. That means Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford are being fast tracked over to my squad as I sacrifice some pop....don't forgot you can deal that injured hitter assuming he's not out for the season. From there, make sure your weakest guys - the $1 or $2 like players - are hitting high in the lineup. Until recently, a prime example would have been Skip Schumaker.

If you can own SBs, R, AVG and you avoid dead last for RBI & HR, your offense isn't in that bad of shape. Let's say can get 1st on those 3 and 12th for the other 2...that's 53 of 75 points. With that you'll average out to be in the top 3rd, and that is typically were a team in the hunt needs to be.

Oh yea, keep your offensive bench thin to nonexistent. You'll see why.

As for pitching, exploit mid-relievers. Many non-hold leagues forget about the no-name 7th inning men. Ideally, the rest of your league will have fewer pitchers as they will have an offensive bench. Think about this: a crappy starter (say Ross Ohlendorf) goes something like this... 5 innings 3 ER, 2 Ks. Nobody wants that. If a few mid relievers contribute that night you could get 8 Innings, 3 ER, 6 Ks, on the night. Presto, you just turned Ohlendorf into an average starter by adding pinch of Mike Wuertz to the equation.

This will help your ERA, WHIP, and Ks a phenomenal amount. And when a closer goes down, you'll probably have the backup, putting you in line for Saves.

A completely different approach would be to pick up guys with extremes vs. left vs. right splits and play matchups. But I'm guessing someone else will touch on that.

Adam Ronis – Newsday

The first thing you need to do is analyze where you are in categories. You might have five points in home runs, but be 10 homers away from getting 10 points. Look at the categories where you can move up and target those categories. You need to work the waiver wire well, even though the pickings may be slim. You also need to take chances. Look for players that are struggling and have track records and try to acquire them. A guy like Chris Young from the Diamondbacks is an example. He has power and speed, but has been awful. Try and find players that are struggling but have proven in the past they can get it done. The bottom line is don't give up. Make trades and be aggressive.

Rudy Gamble – RazzBall

Why don't you add a few more hindrances? How about the cable company turned off my Internet access? Or I have been caught for not paying taxes on my past years' fantasy baseball league winnings and I am being sent to prison?

Winning at this point - assuming it isn't very tight between 1st place and 7th place - is highly unlikely. You obviously have to take some chances. I would gamble on young players and look to make some trades to upgrade weak spots with an emphasis on strong 2nd-half players. If there is anyone on my team that is a possible sell-high candidate, I am looking to move them. Same with closers as I would rather take the risk of finding saves off the waiver wire.

Jon Williams – Advanced Fantasy Baseball

The most important thing to remember is that you have more than half the season to make up ground. Use trades to fill any holes in your lineup. One of my favorite strategies is to trade a star player for two less popular but productive veterans. Often you will lose a little in the Homerun and Stolen Base categories but you will gain in Runs and RBI. I suggest you trade for hitting help because good bats are extremely hard to find on waivers. I also would play up the strengths of the players you do have. If you have power but no batting average or speed concentrate on building your power stats even higher. If you have a surplus in a category you can trade it for players that will help you gain ground in whichever category is easiest.

Concentrate your FAAB bids and waiver claims to build your pitching statistics. You can never count on building points in the wins category so do not even try. Instead, look to gain in ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts. If you own mediocre or bad starters, dump or trade the bad ones for the best middle relievers available. Often a few good middle relievers can do the job of an ace pitcher. Also, keep an eye out for pitchers that are performing better than their results. Until recently, Jon Lester was a very good example of the kind of pitcher you want to target.

If you are in a keeper league, consider trading your best prospects and keepers for more expensive one-year players. The goal is always to win this year. You can worry about next season in 2010. Any upgrade you make is going to make winning that much easier.

Do not give up! You can do it!