Does B.J. Upton Deserve Another Chance?

Roundtable: Does Your Trade Pitch Work?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has been posted at The Hardball Times. Derek Carty poses a question regarding trade talks:

Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?

It is an interesting question that resulted in some interesting answers. Please, check it out by clicking here.

The Michael Vick Decision...

2008 Quarterbacks Ranked By Yards per Game

Name	Team	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int	Sacks	YdsL
Drew Brees	NOR	413	635	65	5069	316.8	8	34	17	13	92
Kurt Warner	ARI	401	598	67.1	4583	286.4	7.7	30	14	26	182
Jay Cutler	DEN	384	616	62.3	4526	282.9	7.3	25	18	11	69
Matt Schaub	HOU	251	380	66.1	3043	276.6	8	15	10	23	149
Tony Romo	DAL	276	450	61.3	3448	265.2	7.7	26	14	20	123
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	341	536	63.6	4038	252.4	7.5	28	13	34	231
Philip Rivers	SDG	312	478	65.3	4009	250.6	8.4	34	11	25	151
Peyton Manning	IND	371	555	66.8	4002	250.1	7.2	27	12	14	86
Donovan McNabb	PHI	345	571	60.4	3916	244.8	6.9	23	11	23	149
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	116	174	66.7	1431	238.5	8.2	6	10	9	58
Matt Cassel	NWE	327	516	63.4	3693	230.8	7.2	21	11	47	219
Chad Pennington	MIA	321	476	67.4	3653	228.3	7.7	19	7	24	121
Shaun Hill	SFO	181	288	62.8	2046	227.3	7.1	13	8	23	148
David Garrard	JAC	335	535	62.6	3620	226.3	6.8	15	13	42	288
Jeff Garcia	TAM	244	376	64.9	2712	226	7.2	12	6	23	100
Brett Favre	NYJ	343	522	65.7	3472	217	6.7	22	22	30	213
Matt Ryan	ATL	265	434	61.1	3440	215	7.9	16	11	17	104
Brian Griese	TAM	110	184	59.8	1073	214.6	5.8	5	7	9	69
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	281	469	59.9	3301	206.3	7	17	15	46	284
Jake Delhomme	CAR	246	414	59.4	3288	205.5	7.9	15	12	20	130
Jason Campbell	WAS	315	506	62.3	3245	202.8	6.4	13	6	38	266
Eli Manning	NYG	289	479	60.3	3238	202.4	6.8	21	10	27	174
Kyle Orton	CHI	272	465	58.5	2972	198.1	6.4	18	12	27	160
Gus Frerotte	MIN	178	301	59.1	2157	196.1	7.2	12	15	29	164
Trent Edwards	BUF	245	374	65.5	2699	192.8	7.2	11	10	23	143
Jon Kitna	DET	68	120	56.7	758	189.5	6.3	5	5	15	89
J.T. O'Sullivan	SFO	128	220	58.2	1678	186.4	7.6	8	11	32	197
Tyler Thigpen	KAN	230	420	54.8	2608	186.3	6.2	18	12	26	162
Joe Flacco	BAL	257	428	60	2971	185.7	6.9	14	12	32	276
Carson Palmer	CIN	75	129	58.1	731	182.8	5.7	3	4	11	67
Marc Bulger	STL	251	440	57	2720	181.3	6.2	11	13	38	263

Get Ready for Rookies, Rookies Everywhere

As more and more Major League Baseball teams reshape their team-building philosophies from "sign free agents and trade minor leaguers" to more development-centric methods, we will see a greater and greater number of rookies and young players making rosters out of spring training. Rookies will be given longer chances and more opportunities to contribute than we are used to seeing from most teams. Conversely we are going to start to see older veterans, who have begun to fade, shuffled out of the majors sooner than was once the case.

For fantasy owners this is both good and bad news. The good news is this will mean that there are lots of interesting new players available on an annual basis. Rather than filling out the ends of your rosters with the Shawn Dunston, Omar Vizquel, and Ken Griffey Jr types, you will find yourself drafting more Daniel Murphy, Justin Masterson, and Ben Zobrist types. These are players whose upside has often been higher than their initial roles might indicate. Insouciant owners who continue to waste their endgame picks on old guys will be far less effective.

The bad news is this means more work for fantasy owners. You will have to work hard to gain an edge. That geek in your league (it could be you) that reads every page of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and the Baseball Prospectus will suddenly be more of a contender than he was before. Sure there are many websites that publish Top 100 lists but they won't help you much if you don't understand why a player is ranked the way he is. You need to immerse yourself into reading the work of writers like Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspectus.com, John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com, Adam Foster and his extremely talented staff at ProjectProspect.com (a lot of their focus is on gathering and filtering information for people who play in deep fantasy baseball leagues, so they can help you quite a bit), or any of the talented guys like Jim Callis and John Manuel at Baseball America, the standard for tracking minor leagues and top prospects. If you just commit to reading the work of these writers you will be way ahead of the curve of the changes coming to baseball's player population.

This happens to be the start of that point in the season where you start to see rookies added to the major league roster of contending teams. The trade deadline has passed and the stretch run has begun. Every team wants their best hands on deck. Sure, you will see even more rookies added in September but they will be there to watch and learn on the contending teams. This is when you should be using low FAAB bids to acquire players, especially if you can reserve them or you are not really in contention for a title. They may be very useful next season.

Advanced Fantasy Football: Magazines

This is a little bit dated but I thought there might still be some interest in this here. This is a combination of some info that appeared on another short-lived blog of mine (it could come back but there has been no demand so far).

The RotoWire Fantasy Football Guide 2009 ships July 15th and should be everywhere by July 25th. It will include the following according to their website:

• Player Rankings & Profiles For More Than 250 Players!
• Comprehensive Cheatsheets & Projected Stats
• Will Carroll's Injury Analysis
• College Fantasy Football Preview
• Top rookies, sleepers, projected 2009 stats and more!

I obviously haven't seen this magazine yet, but RotoWire.com is one of the most reliable sites for Fantasy Football News on the internet. They have a great group of writers/experts who I'm certain will deliver quality product. Rotowire also offers a discount on their premium service to magazine buyers. You can check out the offer at the link above.

Fanball.com Three-Pack


I know a few of the writers at Fanball.com and can confidently state that the writing on this three-pack of Fantasy Football Magazines will be very good. The Fanball.com package consists of three fantasy football magazines:

• The Annual Guide - Often referred to as "the Bible of fantasy football," the full-color Annual Guide is in its 10th year of bringing readers the best analysis in a distinctive entertaining style. Chock-full of team reports, cheat sheets, sleepers, busts, profiles and projections for every relevant player, and much more, it is the ultimate draft-day reference. (Mid-June)
• Just Cheat Sheets - Tired of those run-of-the-mill fantasy football rags? Then this is the publication for you. Jam-packed with cheat sheets, mock drafts, auctions and specific player write-ups for almost every scoring format imaginable, Fantasy Football Just Cheat Sheets 2009 has everything you need to trounce the competition on draft day. (Early July)
• The Draft Issue - The fantasy football landscape is constantly changing with injuries, signings, trades and job battles, which is why the Draft Issue is a must-have resource. It contains the most up-to-date rankings and content on the newsstand, ensuring you enter your fantasy draft with all of the information you need to build a championship roster. (Early August)
  

The Fanball.com Combo is a great deal at $19.95 for all three issues. With the average Sports Magazine Annual approaching ten dollars a book any discount is going to be very welcome. I also like the fact that the release dates are spread out so that the later magazines will actually contain updated information that could be the primary difference between this magazine and many of the others.

Rotoman's 2009 Fantasy Football Guide

I consider the Rotoman's guide an Old School fantasy magazine because it features the work of so many experienced fantasy writers and experts such as the great staff of RotoRob.com and the Rotoman himself. They've made a few changes to the guide this year. They've finally arranged the capsules by position rather than alphabetically, a welcomed change for many frequent buyers.

The mag also features the KFFL Injury Guide, Strength of schedule, mock drafts, rookie reports, and the annual Overlooked/Over-Hyped blurbs throughout the magazine. This is good stuff and a magazine I'll pick up. It is available now.

Fantasy Football Index 2009

I love this magazine and the baseball version. One of my favorite features is the survey of fantasy experts. They are asked all sorts of questions from their favorite sleepers to players to avoid. They also offer a wide variety of cheat sheets and rankings. There is always a mock draft or two as well.

Fantasy Football Index magazine: $7.99
Fantasy Football Index includes 200 pages of player ratings, team analysis, stat projections, defensive player analysis, unique stat charts, sleeper picks, rule suggestions, offensive line analysis, and more -- plus passwords needed to access some web pages in the Toolbox area of the Fantasy Index website. The price includes shipping via USPS first-class mail, and there's no sale tax unless you live in Washington state. (mailed to subscribers July 1st - should be in stores Mid-July)

This is the one magazine I've actually subscribed to receive, because I want it that badly. I like most of you don't depend on magazines for analysis but like you I love having them for reading on the bus or in the bathroom.

The Roto Times Guide to Winning Fantasy Football ($6.99)

Roto Times has a collection of the best and most experienced fantasy football experts in the business. This guide is a must have if for no other reason than it includes Bob Lung's annual Quality Game Scores articles. This is one of the best performance predictors available.

Expert analysis from expert league winners, player profiles, mock drafts, player values, rookies to watch, team and position overviews and the best projections anywhere. Includes free update in late August. The Roto Times Guide to Winning Fantasy Football will be shipped the week of July 25.

The Street&Smith and Sporting News Fantasy Football annuals are now just one book. The cover image is from last year's annual because the only photo of this year's cover was ridiculously small. This magazine is supposedly already on the magazine stands although I have not seen it yet.

Fantasy Football 2009 $7.99
The Sporting News Fantasy Football annual proves why it is number one with features like exclusive player rankings and projections, NFL depth charts, a pull out cheat sheet and over 500 individual scouting reports. All of this plus “7 Must-Know items to win your league” and other draft day tips will be everything needed to help readers become number one of their fantasy football leagues.

Together Street & Smith and the Sporting News have a long history of solid publications. Although sometimes both magazines cater to the shallower leagues, it still contains lots of useful information and entertaining reading. The scouting reports are great for newbie owners who need to double check a player before drafting him. Plus you get three-year stats for just about every player. I usually buy it as one of the first releases of the season.

2009 Footballguys Strategy Guide Magazine - FREE

This is a fantastic resource for Fantasy Football participants at every level. It includes everything you need to dominate your drafts this season. It has taken me more than a week to finish reading it and I'm tempted to print it out and place it in a binder so I can keep it forever. It is that good.

Here's what the Football Guys have to say about their own product:

David and I have decided to produce our Footballguys 2009 Strategy Guide Magazine in a pdf that you can download online instead of printing the magazine and selling from the newsstand. The price to download this pdf online? NONE. NADA. ZIP. As in FREE. The magazine that we would have normally written in May, printed in June and put on the newsstand in July is now available to you on June 5th. For FREE. We figured if we were going to write the magazine in June, we might as well make it available to you as soon as we finished writing it. Pretty much like we do everything else. It's not conventional wisdom to give away a product we used to charge $8 bucks for. But we know things are tight out there. Call it our Footballguys Stimulus Package. You get the 2009 Footballguys Magazine for FREE. Then you take it from there. Check out the link in the headline. Let us know what you think. Share it with your friends if you really want to help us. But mostly, enjoy.

Trade Advice: Selling High and Going with Your Gut

Here is the content of a recent e-mail I received from a frequent reader:

Hey Jon,

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I drove 16 hours to Chicago to catch the Cubs/Astros 4-gamer. That's not the full truth, though... I also delayed a response due to the shame I felt for going against your advice. I accepted the trade I mentioned in my last email. Don't worry - I paid for it. I was drinking $7 beer at Wrigley when Oswalt was helped off the field in the 2nd inning. It sounds like he's heading for the DL, too... yippee.

OK, so here's a quickie: Who would you rather own, Carlos Pena or Jason Bartlett? I'm pretty torn. Pena's batting average annoys me, but I feel like Bartlett is a good sell-high candidate. It seems inevitable that his power numbers decline... in fact, this seems to have already begun. Bartlett does, though, give you BA, Runs, & SB while providing decent HR & RBI numbers for his position.

Like I said, I'm torn. The reason I ask is I plan to trade 1 of the 2 for a closer. I've picked up Carlos Guillen to fill the void. This will probably change based on matchup. Well, thanks again for all the advice. Maybe this time I will listen. And, as always, if you're short on time, no worries. I've been keeping afloat for this long... just need to get healthy. Have a good one, Robert

Hey Robert,

No need to feel shame, I'm just offering second opinions here. I say all the time that you sometimes have to follow your gut in fantasy sports. You won't always be right but at least you won't feel the pangs of regret from not doing something that felt right to you.

I wish I could get away for a day to drive to other stadiums. I haven't been on a vacation in a long time, even of the one or two day variety. I'm in Cambridge, Massachusetts so it's Fenway Park or nothing most of the time.

In a vacuum I prefer players that hit for average and steal bases over low-average sluggers. So, I guess that puts me in the Bartlett camp. I actually like both guys to be productive if not stellar players over the balance of the season. Pena swings and misses a lot which leads to a lot of bad streaks where he offers very very little. Bartlett has some on-base skills. He takes a few walks and steals bases even when he isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball.

A lot of owners misunderstand what the idea of selling high is about.. The purpose is to get maximum value for a player that is not likely to repeat his peak performance, which gives your team a steady production at a very high level. This does not necessarily mean that the player will become worthless at some point. Sometimes a good sell-high player is also a pretty good keeper. For example, Cliff Lee in 2008 was performing at a level that no one expected he could continue given his track record and skills. But if you owned Lee for a reasonable price he was worth keeping even if you expected a 20 percent decline.. Sure enough Lee was worth keeping for everyone that owned him in 2009. Though I expect there are more than a few AL-only guys banging their heads against a wall.

Good luck Robert.

Jon Williams
Advanced Fantasy Baseball