Tuesday, October 13, 2009

The Top South Atlantic League Players of 2009

I'm gonna try to finish off the minor league rankings over the next couple of days so we can get to reviewing the 2009 MLB season.

Top 25 South Atlantic League Batters (min. 50 at-bats)

Name Team BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
Kiel Roling Rockies 10.20% 26.70% 0.331 0.401 0.593 0.262 2.7 0.405 0.44
Brian Pellegrini Astros 14.20% 29.10% 0.291 0.396 0.578 0.288 4.2 0.338 0.431
Derek Norris Nationals 17.10% 26.50% 0.286 0.413 0.513 0.227 2.8 0.342 0.417
Erik Morrison Rangers 8.10% 22.70% 0.297 0.368 0.558 0.261 5.3 0.341 0.414
Ryan Lavarnway Red Sox 11.00% 28.00% 0.285 0.367 0.54 0.255 2.7 0.348 0.403
Jordan Pacheco Rockies 7.80% 9.80% 0.322 0.379 0.492 0.171 5.3 0.335 0.398
Jim Murphy Phillies 12.90% 32.90% 0.279 0.393 0.467 0.188 3.1 0.383 0.393
Nate Recknagel Indians 12.70% 21.70% 0.28 0.379 0.482 0.202 3.8 0.324 0.385
Ben Lasater Marlins 7.50% 24.60% 0.29 0.352 0.468 0.178 3.9 0.356 0.375
Jeremy Synan Marlins 8.10% 22.40% 0.291 0.353 0.483 0.192 3.1 0.345 0.374
Ronnie Welty Orioles 9.60% 27.80% 0.29 0.373 0.425 0.135 4.8 0.382 0.37
Joshua Satin Mets 14.20% 23.40% 0.284 0.385 0.418 0.134 1.7 0.358 0.37
Corban Joseph Yankees 11.40% 16.10% 0.3 0.381 0.418 0.118 5.1 0.349 0.368
Tyler Moore Nationals 8.70% 26.40% 0.297 0.363 0.447 0.15 2.7 0.385 0.368
Josh Mazzola Giants 7.00% 25.30% 0.284 0.347 0.455 0.171 4.7 0.351 0.367
Andy D'Alessio Giants 9.00% 25.10% 0.3 0.361 0.443 0.143 3.1 0.384 0.366
Calvin Anderson Pirates 8.10% 29.60% 0.274 0.347 0.446 0.172 4.3 0.36 0.362
Donnie Webb Indians 7.80% 23.40% 0.289 0.351 0.42 0.132 7.9 0.364 0.362
Scott Robinson Rockies 3.80% 22.20% 0.309 0.349 0.415 0.106 8.1 0.393 0.361
Kevin Mattison Marlins 8.20% 22.50% 0.25 0.323 0.422 0.172 7.1 0.284 0.361
Harold Garcia Phillies 6.10% 22.50% 0.291 0.35 0.414 0.124 7.5 0.36 0.361
Stephen Lombardozzi Nationals 11.10% 16.10% 0.296 0.375 0.395 0.099 6.5 0.349 0.36
Mark Thompson Indians 11.10% 23.50% 0.257 0.358 0.408 0.151 4.9 0.304 0.358
Brandon Short White Sox 7.30% 22.60% 0.284 0.342 0.417 0.133 6.5 0.35 0.356
Joseph Mahoney Orioles 7.10% 23.50% 0.281 0.333 0.41 0.129 8.6 0.353 0.356
Robbie Grossman Pirates 14.30% 36.40% 0.266 0.373 0.355 0.089 6.4 0.408 0.351
Ryan Dent Red Sox 12.40% 32.50% 0.252 0.35 0.391 0.139 6.8 0.357 0.349
Will Middlebrooks Red Sox 11.40% 32.90% 0.265 0.349 0.404 0.139 4.8 0.377 0.348
Abraham Almonte Yankees 7.40% 18.40% 0.28 0.333 0.391 0.111 8.3 0.333 0.348
Isaias Velasquez Rays 7.80% 17.30% 0.278 0.342 0.39 0.112 6.5 0.332 0.343
Sean Ratliff Mets 6.20% 28.00% 0.265 0.312 0.451 0.186 6.2 0.339 0.343
Karexon Sanchez Indians 13.40% 30.00% 0.234 0.35 0.375 0.141 6.5 0.31 0.342
James Cesario Rockies 6.00% 15.60% 0.285 0.333 0.418 0.133 5.2 0.319 0.341
David Christensen Rockies 5.70% 38.50% 0.234 0.293 0.452 0.218 8.3 0.336 0.341
Joel Campusano Braves 6.80% 13.60% 0.288 0.343 0.387 0.099 5.8 0.323 0.34

Top 25 South Atlantic League Pitchers (min. 50 IP)

Name Team K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP
Eric Surkamp Giants 11.61 2.68 0.41 1.28 0.38 70.30% 3.3 2.2
Jordan Lyles Astros 10.39 2.36 0.31 1.19 0.349 72.60% 3.24 2.42
Justin De Fratus Phillies 8.26 1.31 0.25 1.13 0.334 69.30% 3.19 2.43
Stephen Sauer White Sox 7.8 1.2 0.25 1.28 0.364 70.40% 3.36 2.53
Juan Nicasio Rockies 9.24 1.85 0.48 1.19 0.341 72.30% 2.41 2.57
J.J. Hoover Braves 9.92 1.67 0.6 1.19 0.353 70.60% 3.35 2.58
Jesus Sanchez Phillies 7.94 2.78 0.26 1.32 0.335 68.80% 3.44 2.77
Matthew Moore Rays 12.88 5.12 0.44 1.27 0.319 72.30% 3.15 2.83
Dexter Carter White Sox 10.91 2.44 0.69 1.14 0.331 76.30% 3.13 2.84
Chris Schwinden Mets 6.87 1.17 0.47 1.22 0.336 69.00% 3.28 2.87
Eric Beaulac Mets 10.32 3.18 0.47 1.3 0.349 70.60% 2.95 2.87
Cole McCurry Orioles 9.34 2.96 0.52 1.17 0.307 74.10% 2.71 2.88
Marcos Frias Nationals 7.96 2.13 0.43 1.22 0.325 69.20% 2.91 2.97
Jeurys Familia Mets 7.32 3.09 0.2 1.16 0.283 72.50% 2.69 3.16
Brock Huntzinger Red Sox 7.32 2.3 0.5 1.27 0.323 64.90% 4.09 3.18
Randall Delgado Braves 10.23 3.56 0.65 1.39 0.353 65.30% 4.35 3.2
Robert Bono Astros 4.14 1.19 0.31 1.23 0.311 66.90% 3.2 3.23
Oliver Drake Orioles 7.16 2.89 0.41 1.38 0.333 63.80% 4.34 3.26
Kyle Nicholson Giants 6.11 1.62 0.51 1.08 0.282 69.40% 2.8 3.27
Charles Leesman White Sox 6.68 3.31 0.23 1.41 0.329 73.40% 3.08 3.34
Ari Ronick Giants 7.54 2.25 0.66 1.07 0.273 64.70% 2.65 3.34
Robert Carson Mets 6.15 3.08 0.27 1.4 0.324 66.00% 3.21 3.37
Ezekiel Spruill Braves 7.37 1.86 0.7 1.24 0.324 70.10% 3.03 3.37
Kyle Greenwalt Astros 5.81 1.81 0.45 1.31 0.327 66.10% 4.2 3.4
David Phelps Yankees 7.19 2 0.72 1.26 0.322 73.50% 2.8 3.41
Parker Frazier Rockies 6.75 2.27 0.48 1.46 0.358 68.80% 4.48 3.43
T.J. House Indians 7.3 3.28 0.54 1.31 0.306 73.30% 3.15 3.51
T.J. McFarland Indians 6.34 3.13 0.45 1.41 0.323 69.90% 3.58 3.56
Stolmy Pimentel Red Sox 7.88 2.22 0.92 1.39 0.35 70.10% 3.82 3.62
Kyle Kaminska Marlins 7.07 2.27 0.63 1.39 0.344 61.50% 4.16 3.63
Ryan O'Shea Orioles 6.54 3.07 0.52 1.31 0.303 70.90% 3.6 3.72
Chris Andujar Rays 5.93 3.15 0.53 1.18 0.262 74.30% 2.7 3.74
Kyle Allen Mets 7.97 3.66 0.57 1.28 0.294 71.30% 3.45 3.74
Mike Loree Giants 5.11 1.9 0.66 1.34 0.319 62.30% 4.67 3.77
Johnny Dorn Marlins 5.38 2.4 0.63 1.42 0.327 68.20% 4.18 3.87

Saturday, October 10, 2009

The Missed Call

I was rooting for the New York Yankees but this was a terrible call. I'm not sure it would have made a dramatic difference in the game but the umpires should not miss calls that are this clear.

Friday, October 09, 2009

Around Baseball: News, Links, and Observations

Want a job working for a Major League Baseball team? Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus shares an attempt by a major League team to tap into the knowledge of baseball fans. You can win your chance by sending your answer to the following question (send it by November 9th, 2009) to mlbquestion@gmail.com just don't expect an answer unless you are in the running.
If you had access to all of the information available to a major league team - both public and proprietary data, such as scouting reports, training reports, video, etc - what question(s) would you attempt to answer with that data? How would you go about that process? What potential problems do you foresee?
David O'Brien runs the excellent Atlanta Journal Constitution, Atlanta Braves Blog. This is one of the better sources for information on the Braves and the thinking of their management team. In the post linked above, O'Brien discusses the Braves' priorities for the 2010 season. They have placed a right-handed power hitter at the top of their list of needs. Closely followed by re-signing Adam LaRoche (or another power-hitting first baseman). Interestingly, O'Brien seems to think the Braves could pry outfielder (and right-handed power hitter) Nelson Cruz away from the Texas Rangers and I think he may be right.
But anyway, Cruz is right-handed and hit .260 with 33 homers, 20 stolen bases and an .856 OPS in 128 games, and while his .931 OPS at hitter-friendly Arlington was a lot higher than his .778 on the road, he hit almot as many homers (15) on the road than at home (18) in virtually the same number of at-bats.
Nelson Cruz had a fantastic season in 2009 but found himself on the bench frequently in the second half. This is partly due to minor injuries and a few slumps but manager Ron Washington seemed to like his other options much better. The Rangers are very deep in the outfield. They have rookie Julio Borbon (who looked a lot like a junior version of Carl Crawford) projected as the 2010 center fielder. Josh Hamilton is moving to right field (he's still a stud in case you were wondering). That leaves left field open for one of Nelson Cruz; Marlon Byrd, who hit 20 home runs and who the Rangers want to re-sign; 0r lesser possibilities like David Murphy, Brandon Boggs, and Greg Golson.

The Nationals Farm Authority is repeating a rumor first tweeted by ESPN’s Jose Arangure which suggests that Jeff Zona, currently a Nats Cross Checker could be promoted to Director of International Scouting. Zona was a scout for the Boston Red Sox in 2004 when they finally broke The Curse. I have a good feeling about the direction of the Nationals. Since Mike Rizzo took over they've almost exactly what I would have wanted them to do. The Nats have a powerful lineup that should be even better in 2010. Their bullpen is beginning to look like a potential strength with Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard, Garrett Mock and Mike MacDougal forming the heart of it. They are quickly building a formidable farm system featuring players with true star potential such as Stephen Strasburg, Derek Norris, and Michael Burgess. I suggest that Fantasy Owners look very deeply at Mike Rizzo's moves this off-season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks completed the Jon Garland trade when the D'Backs accepted infielder Tony Abreu as the player to be named later. There has been some controversy over Abreu's service time but apparently not enough to force the Dodgers to change the compensation. Abreu is a strong contact hitter who does not draw many walks. He has good pop for a middle infielder and decent speed, but does not steal many bases. I think of Abreu as a Howie Kendrick-lite who could have some value in NL-only leagues in 2010, if he wins the starting job at second base. He will definitely be in the mix.

If you have ever found yourself bitching about the price of tickets to the best sporting events you needs to read Seats of Gold. Hell, even if you haven't the insanity that is the Legends Suite at the New Yankee Stadium is worth reading about. I'm pretty certain I won't ever be going to Yankee Stadium ever again. I want to, but I don't think I'll ever be able to do it.

In the downstairs half of the suite, there are all the same food stations -- plus dessert. Ice cream served in little blue Yankees helmets. Or maybe an entire pint for your seat. Pan-sautéed whoopie pies. I get three or four of those and take them to the bar, where I order a $60 glass of Johnnie Walker Blue Label (food's free, booze isn't). A house ad airs on the television in front of me. Apparently, I can buy Kobe beef to take home from the stadium. Yes, there's a butcher here. And an art gallery. I can get sushi and lobster rolls and Scottish salmon in another nearby lounge, along with duck pasta. On the first- and third-base side of the room, hidden from common view behind home plate, sit gigantic tables covered with every snack imaginable. There's Cracker Jack and peanuts, Twizzlers and Twix, Skittles and Starburst, plus five or six other kinds of sugar-coated goodness.

I watch a kid, maybe 8 years old, stand in front of the spread. He's paralyzed. His dad is trying not to laugh, and the boy can't figure out what to take. He's never seen anything like this.

The dad finally laughs. "It's all included," he tells his son. "It's like Willy Wonka."

Welcome to the new America, kid. Too bad you can't save a bag of Skittles in your wallet for 50 years. Luckily, you'll never know what you're missing.

2009 Top Midwest League Prospects

The Midwest League rankings feature the up and coming Jaff Decker who will reach San Diego far too late to save Kevin Towers his job. I never had a huge problem with Towers. He was far more handicapped (and successful despite this) by his team's ownership and budget than a frequent complainer like J.P. Ricciardi and his $100 million dollar losing squads.

MLB Fantasy Prospects wrote a great piece on Jaff Decker that I may have mentioned previously, but if you missed it you should certainly check it out. the site is an excellent resource for the prospect crazy or just the committed Advanced Fantasy Baseball Shark in need of an edge.
The big boy was no slouch this year at Low-A hitting .299, with 16 HRs, a .442 OBP, and a .514 SLG. Decker has a phenomenal eye that is indicative of a future fantasy star. He had a 19.2% walk rate and .92 BB/K rate batting third in the Fort Wayne (Padres’ Low-A affiliate) batting order. Notably, Decker has had a fairly high Batting Average on Balls in Play [BABIP] (.364 at Low-A /.432 in the AZL). Usually, such a high BABIP suggests a lucky hitter. In this case, there’s no luck involved, as Decker’s BABIP is sky high because he hits the ball freakishly hard.
MLB Fantasy Prospects has recently reported on prospects like Derek Norris of the Washington Nationals, Hector Rondon of the Cleveland Indians, and Brian Matusz of the Baltimore Orioles.

Top 25 Midwest League Batters (minimum 50 at-bats)

Name Team BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
James Darnell Padres 20.40% 23.00% 0.329 0.468 0.518 0.189 4 0.402 0.449
Brett Jackson Cubs 8.90% 28.60% 0.295 0.383 0.545 0.25 8.2 0.356 0.436
Jaff Decker Padres 19.20% 25.70% 0.299 0.442 0.514 0.215 4.8 0.364 0.434
Chris Dennis Brewers 12.60% 29.50% 0.318 0.409 0.538 0.22 4.2 0.427 0.432
Xavier Scruggs Cardinals 15.10% 33.30% 0.295 0.409 0.527 0.233 3.4 0.392 0.427
Jermaine Curtis Cardinals 14.50% 18.80% 0.304 0.426 0.438 0.134 5.3 0.367 0.417
Kyler Burke Cubs 14.40% 21.30% 0.303 0.405 0.505 0.202 5.8 0.359 0.417
Kyle Russell Dodgers 13.00% 37.40% 0.272 0.371 0.545 0.272 7.6 0.382 0.416
Joseph Becker Dodgers 10.60% 20.30% 0.339 0.403 0.492 0.153 3.9 0.413 0.407
Sawyer Carroll Padres 13.80% 22.80% 0.316 0.41 0.464 0.148 5.1 0.394 0.406
Josh Vitters Cubs 2.50% 15.60% 0.316 0.351 0.535 0.219 4.4 0.33 0.402
Conner Crumbliss Athletics 18.00% 18.00% 0.28 0.438 0.4 0.12 6.5 0.341 0.401
Kris Sanchez Mariners 13.60% 27.20% 0.291 0.391 0.496 0.205 1.7 0.366 0.401
Billy Nowlin Tigers 8.10% 16.00% 0.311 0.39 0.483 0.172 3.9 0.346 0.399
Chris Swauger Cardinals 7.30% 20.00% 0.296 0.357 0.522 0.226 6.7 0.341 0.397
Jerry Sands Dodgers 12.60% 30.80% 0.26 0.361 0.51 0.25 5.9 0.328 0.395
Grant Desme Athletics 7.50% 31.30% 0.274 0.334 0.49 0.216 8.4 0.359 0.394
Charles Cutler Cardinals 9.00% 10.30% 0.351 0.41 0.455 0.103 2.8 0.38 0.393
Byron Wiley Reds 16.60% 29.80% 0.275 0.395 0.461 0.186 5.4 0.363 0.392
Brian Van Kirk Blue Jays 14.00% 25.70% 0.278 0.389 0.451 0.173 4.1 0.344 0.392
Alexia Amarista Angels 9.50% 12.80% 0.319 0.39 0.468 0.149 7.8 0.359 0.391
Nick Van Stratten Royals 9.90% 12.50% 0.318 0.393 0.447 0.129 7.7 0.36 0.39
Blake Ochoa Mariners 7.50% 20.20% 0.318 0.379 0.48 0.162 3.6 0.376 0.387
Josh Harrison Cubs 5.00% 8.30% 0.337 0.377 0.479 0.142 7.3 0.358 0.386
Marc Krauss Diamondbacks 10.90% 18.30% 0.304 0.377 0.478 0.174 3.1 0.359 0.386
Luis Flores Cubs 20.00% 22.90% 0.208 0.387 0.458 0.25 1.9 0.229 0.385
Brendan Duffy Diamondbacks 11.10% 20.90% 0.308 0.414 0.393 0.085 7.7 0.39 0.384
Anthony Delmonico Dodgers 11.20% 23.60% 0.285 0.383 0.43 0.145 4.4 0.352 0.382
Andrew Cumberland Padres 12.10% 12.40% 0.293 0.386 0.41 0.117 7.9 0.329 0.382
Matt Carpenter Cardinals 13.90% 12.40% 0.295 0.405 0.39 0.095 4.6 0.337 0.381
Matt Clark Padres 11.60% 28.60% 0.266 0.352 0.484 0.218 1.6 0.331 0.381
Ramon Santana Twins 11.90% 25.30% 0.296 0.384 0.453 0.156 4 0.377 0.379
Anthony Hatch Dodgers 9.60% 14.60% 0.294 0.363 0.463 0.169 5.4 0.327 0.379
Jarrod Dyson Royals 6.90% 20.90% 0.343 0.397 0.403 0.06 8 0.434 0.377
Scott Savastano Mariners 11.90% 17.90% 0.3 0.39 0.404 0.104 6.1 0.354 0.377

Top 25 Midwest League Pitchers (minimum 50 IP)


Name Team K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP
Andrew Taylor Angels 14.55 3.33 0 0.94 0.32 85.40% 1.23 1.08
Brad Brach Padres 11.59 1.55 0.14 0.74 0.264 82.70% 1.27 1.54
Cheyne Hann Mariners 9.75 1.05 0.26 0.82 0.279 83.30% 1.32 1.85
Chris Huseby Cubs 12.17 1.67 0.5 0.98 0.335 86.90% 1.83 1.94
Vladimir Veras Angels 9.83 3 0 1.13 0.316 68.30% 3 2.13
Matt Daly Blue Jays 9.59 3.55 0 1.09 0.283 76.80% 1.95 2.31
Bryan Woodall Diamondbacks 9.86 2.3 0.27 1.35 0.382 68.00% 3.24 2.34
Blaine Hardy Royals 9.16 1.66 0.29 0.95 0.29 76.00% 2.05 2.37
Zachary Herr Padres 12.71 3.18 0.64 1.24 0.366 62.70% 4.13 2.41
Bayron Zepeda Diamondbacks 7.3 2.04 0 1.43 0.375 62.00% 4.58 2.43
Henderson Alvarez Blue Jays 6.66 1.38 0.07 1.13 0.317 63.60% 3.47 2.43
Nick Schmidt Padres 10.28 4.01 0 1.18 0.305 67.70% 2.79 2.48
Nick Schumacher Padres 8.74 2.22 0.16 1.08 0.305 88.20% 1.11 2.49
Barry Bowden Royals 11.22 3.86 0.35 1.01 0.257 75.70% 2.28 2.56
Ezequiel Infante Reds 7.91 1.55 0.34 1.15 0.325 69.30% 3.44 2.57
Robert Boothe Dodgers 12.46 4.63 0.32 1.49 0.396 62.20% 4.95 2.65
Kenn Kasparek Mariners 8.51 2.03 0.32 1.12 0.313 73.50% 2.41 2.68
Liam Hendriks Twins 8.37 2.03 0.41 1.32 0.357 65.30% 3.51 2.69
Ryan Buchter Cubs 11.66 5.02 0.15 1.15 0.273 77.10% 1.33 2.69
Jamie Richmond Athletics 7.2 0.9 0.54 1.06 0.308 74.30% 2.7 2.74
Tyler Stohr Tigers 8.11 2.36 0.3 1.23 0.328 69.20% 3.54 2.76
Casey Crosby Tigers 10.06 4.13 0.26 1.13 0.273 72.80% 2.41 2.8
Tyler Conn Tigers 7.97 2.31 0.39 1.19 0.314 72.70% 3.21 2.8
Simon Castro Padres 10.07 2.37 0.58 1.1 0.313 68.20% 3.33 2.8
Anthony Shawler Tigers 8.19 2.59 0.33 1.23 0.321 66.50% 3.76 2.89
Daniel Merklinger Brewers 9 2.89 0.51 1.17 0.303 76.10% 2.55 2.9
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Cubs 6.37 1.15 0.51 0.91 0.255 77.10% 2.04 2.9
Brayan Villarreal Tigers 10.28 2.96 0.44 1.15 0.316 73.60% 2.87 2.91
Steven Blevins Twins 7.87 3.05 0.23 1.37 0.34 66.90% 3.52 2.97
Michael Montgomery Royals 8.07 3.72 0.16 1.14 0.269 73.60% 2.17 2.98
Geison Aguasviva Dodgers 6.61 2.87 0.14 1.16 0.285 80.20% 1.58 2.99
Wily Peralta Brewers 10.24 3.99 0.43 1.32 0.33 71.60% 3.47 3
Christopher Archer Cubs 9.83 5.45 0 1.32 0.293 72.90% 2.81 3.03
Ramon Delgado Cardinals 7.46 1.87 0.55 1.06 0.285 74.40% 2.41 3.03
Luke Putkonen Tigers 6.93 2.83 0.18 1.31 0.321 70.60% 3.13 3.05

Monday, October 05, 2009

Trevor Hoffman Close to Re-Signing with Brewers

According to a report in the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, Trevor Hoffman is very close to re-signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. Both sides have been quoted as interested in another deal so this should come as no surprise to Brewer fans. In fact, ESPN's Buster Olney is saying that the deal is done. A one year deal for $8 million that keeps the closer in a Brewer uniform.

Hoffman had another very solid season despite common belief that his skills were fading at the end of the 2008 season. Hoffman converted 37 of 41 save chances and finished with a 3-2 record, 1.83/2.63 ERA/FIP, 8.00 K9, 2.33 BB9, 0.33HR9, and a 0.85 GB/FB ratio. He should be a solid mid-range closer for fantasy owners in 2010.


Under Not Fantasy Sports But Still Awesome:

Joe Posnanski is my favorite baseball writer. He is the favorite of a lot of serious baseball fans. He has a new book out called "The Machine" which you can buy through the link below. You'll not only be buying a great book but supporting this site (and a great baseball writer) if you use this link. Thanks.

Rob Neyer: (interviewing Joe P.)
Some people root for baseball teams. I root for baseball books, for two reasons. One, a fair number of my friends have written baseball books, so rooting for a book is like rooting for a friend. And two, I've written a few books myself, and know what it's like to pour one's life into something for many months and wind up eliciting hardly a yawn from the Big Wide World. Anyway, I'm rooting for Joe Posnanski's new book, The Machine, about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, which was officially published today. Joe and I haven't yet met, but I do know he's an easy guy to root for, all the more because I've read his book. Well, I thought I knew Pete Rose and Johnny Bench already -- and I did -- but now I know them better.

There are memorable teams in baseball—and then there are utterly unforgettable teams like the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. From 1972 to 1976, the franchise known as the Big Red Machine dominated the National League, winning four division crowns, three league pennants, and two World Series titles. But their 1975 season has become the stuff of sports legend. In The Machine, award-winning sports columnist Joe Posnanski captures all of the passion and tension, drama and glory of this extraordinary team considered to be one of the greatest ever to take the field. Helmed by Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, the lineup for the '75 Reds is a Who's Who of baseball stars: Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, George Foster, Cesar Geronimo, and Dave Concepcion. Like a well-oiled engine, the '75 Reds ended the regular season with 108 wins and finished a whopping 20 games ahead of their closest division competitor, the Los Angeles Dodgers. But that remarkable year was not without controversy. Feuds, fights, insults, and run-ins with fans were as much a part of the season as hits, runs, steals, and strikeouts. Capturing this rollicking thrill-ride of a story, Posnanski brings to vivid life the excitement, hope, and high expectations that surrounded the players from the beginning of spring training through the long summer and into a nail-biting World Series, where, in the ninth inning of the seventh game, the Big Red Machine fulfilled its destiny, defeating the Boston Red Sox 4-3. As enthralling and entertaining as the season and players it captures, The Machine is the story of a team unlike any other in the sport's glorious history.

Saturday, October 03, 2009

Evaluating Major League Baseball Managers


There is a huge story brewing in Toronto. Stories are breaking that the team has started to rebel against Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston. But there is also serious doubt as to where this story is coming from. First, as Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star points out, it is unusual that a team that has been lost by its manager does so while on its best streak of the season. They've won their last six games and nine of their last ten. Ken Rosenthal who blew this story up has been (to put it gently) annoying a lot of people with unsubstantiated rumors and exaggerations (exactly what he generally accuses all bloggers of doing) this season. Griffin points out that Rosenthal generally gets his stories (at least in Toronto) from the front office and not the players in the clubhouse. Thoughts are that J.P. Ricciardi (fired today) planted the story on his way out the door.

Managers always seem to get either too much credit or none at all. Many stat guys will tell you that a good major league manager has an impact on very few games. I haven't decided whether I believe that or not. I think a good manager might have a huge impact everyday that is simply not quantifiable. But just because we can't (or it is hard to) count it does not mean it doesn't exist. As fantasy owners we are a little more likely to see the things managers do that affect our games. We notice that Matt Kemp is batting seventh in the lineup despite being the best hitter on the team. We can read between the lines and realize that Cito Gaston has a problem with B.J. Ryan in Spring Training. We know that Dusty Baker will give his favorite veterans many opportunities but that rookies and younger players had better perform one way or another if they want to stay in the lineup.

Fantasy owners can get a huge jump on their competition by getting to know managers and how they do things. This is not simply reading what they say to the press. Most of us know that we can't take their words for much. But if we listen to their words and watch what they do we can build a very good picture of what they really think. This is hugely important to owners that want to play Advanced Fantasy Baseball. Your player evaluations are not complete if you haven't taken the time to consider what the team's manager and front office personnel think about him. I have made this mistake at times this season. Drew Sutton and Kevin Frandsen might have better skills than the players in front of them but unless they win the approval of their respective managers they would be lucky to make their teams out of Spring Training.

There have been various attempts by very smart people at Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times and a few other sites to quantify a manager's impact on the game. But it's remains difficult to measure but there has been progress. Recently, Jeremy Greenhouse wrote an article for the Baseball Analysts that examines the impact managers have on major league bullpens. The results are very interesting. It includes some very good graphics that make the difference between some teams very clear.

Here's a small sample:
...La Russa does a fantastic job of platooning. Both lefties he’s utilized out of the pen have had the benefit of facing a majority of same-handed batters. Trever Miller has put up great numbers this year, and La Russa would be well-served to use him as the southpaw in a righty-lefty combination with Kyle McClellan who has been holding his own as La Russa's go-to guy after Franklin. There is a dilemma in the case of Miller, who is truly exceptional against lefties to the tune of 37 strikeouts to six walks this year. So in a relatively close game, should La Russa bring him in once the starter is out and a lefty is up to ensure quality innings from Miller, or should La Russa at times wait and hope that Miller might have the chance to face a couple lefties in the 8th or 9th when the leverage is highest, but risk not pitching Miller at all?
The Baseball Analysts is a great site that every fantasy owner interested in increasing their understanding of the game of baseball should be reading. They regularly evaluate pitchers and hitters in great detail, they study prospects and release lists that are very underrated by those that get intense about minor leaguers. If they do what they usually do you can expect very nice reports on the non-tenders, Rule V, and Arizona Fall League players.

Press Release: Toronto Blue Jays management change

ROGERS today announced that J.P. RICCIARDI will be leaving his position as Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager of the Toronto Blue Jays effective immediately. Mr. Ricciardi joined the Blue Jays in 2001.

"This was a tough decision and a difficult one for me personally as I have enjoyed J.P.'s friendship and his perspective on the game," said Paul Beeston, acting President, and CEO. "J.P. has put an incredible amount of effort into improving the team and he has brought along a number of great young players. However, I feel that it is time for a change and accordingly we have decided to move on."

Alexander Anthopoulos, Vice President, Baseball Operations & Assistant General Manager will fill the role commencing today.

Friday, October 02, 2009

Top Carolina League Players of 2009

The Carolina League is next up in our series of minor league rankings. This will get very interesting next week when we begin to review the 2009 MLB season.

The Top 25 Carolina League Batters (minimum 50 at-bats)

Name Team BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
Matt McBride Indians 8.00% 11.90% 0.405 0.453 0.667 0.262 1.5 0.429 0.495
Ryan Kalish Red Sox 18.40% 17.40% 0.304 0.434 0.513 0.209 6 0.333 0.428
Jordan Danks White Sox 13.20% 27.10% 0.322 0.409 0.525 0.203 6.9 0.422 0.425
Daniel Nava Red Sox 14.20% 19.30% 0.339 0.434 0.495 0.156 3.6 0.414 0.415
Robert Widlansky Orioles 8.20% 14.70% 0.34 0.395 0.506 0.166 3.8 0.384 0.406
Chase D'Arnaud Pirates 12.50% 19.50% 0.295 0.402 0.481 0.186 8 0.352 0.406
Yamaico Navarro Red Sox 6.00% 12.80% 0.319 0.373 0.543 0.223 2.3 0.333 0.405
Jason Heyward Braves 10.00% 15.90% 0.296 0.369 0.519 0.222 3.8 0.309 0.401
Ernesto Mejia Braves 6.50% 27.60% 0.293 0.358 0.569 0.276 2.2 0.359 0.397
Brandon Waring Orioles 9.70% 25.60% 0.273 0.354 0.52 0.247 3.8 0.316 0.387
Kris Watts Pirates 13.90% 15.00% 0.291 0.405 0.432 0.141 4.1 0.326 0.385
Danny Espinosa Nationals 13.50% 27.20% 0.264 0.375 0.46 0.196 6.6 0.327 0.382
Freddie Freeman Braves 9.30% 16.10% 0.302 0.394 0.447 0.145 2.7 0.341 0.381
David Lough Royals 5.10% 15.30% 0.32 0.37 0.473 0.153 4.8 0.361 0.379
Matthew Tucker Orioles 9.70% 23.00% 0.317 0.386 0.489 0.173 4.6 0.388 0.379
Miles Durham Pirates 6.40% 22.30% 0.296 0.348 0.49 0.194 6.7 0.357 0.379
Kyle Shelton White Sox 7.70% 23.10% 0.324 0.387 0.426 0.102 2.8 0.415 0.377
Cody Johnson Braves 13.20% 40.50% 0.242 0.345 0.517 0.275 3.5 0.32 0.377
Logan Johnson White Sox 9.40% 19.80% 0.269 0.362 0.467 0.198 2.3 0.295 0.376
Lonnie Chisenhall Indians 8.70% 20.60% 0.276 0.346 0.492 0.216 3.5 0.307 0.376
Ole Sheldon Indians 11.00% 16.30% 0.267 0.36 0.473 0.205 2.1 0.276 0.376
Sean Rooney Nationals 10.00% 15.20% 0.3 0.366 0.465 0.166 2.4 0.331 0.376
Christian Marrero White Sox 4.60% 19.50% 0.314 0.357 0.482 0.168 3.6 0.366 0.374
Gerardo Rodriguez Braves 6.30% 32.10% 0.281 0.331 0.5 0.219 5.2 0.364 0.373
Christopher Marrero Nationals 9.20% 23.40% 0.287 0.36 0.464 0.176 3 0.342 0.371
Devin Ivany Nationals 12.80% 17.50% 0.269 0.36 0.474 0.205 2.6 0.291 0.368
Seth Loman White Sox 5.60% 29.70% 0.262 0.335 0.483 0.22 2 0.323 0.367
Clint Robinson Royals 7.40% 18.10% 0.298 0.356 0.463 0.165 3.4 0.34 0.366
Michael Martinez Nationals 7.50% 15.70% 0.293 0.347 0.475 0.182 7.8 0.331 0.366
Pedro Alvarez Pirates 13.20% 28.80% 0.247 0.342 0.486 0.239 3 0.289 0.364
Jeff Bianchi Royals 8.30% 21.40% 0.3 0.36 0.427 0.127 6.2 0.367 0.364
Tim Fedroff Indians 14.50% 25.10% 0.278 0.383 0.381 0.103 5.6 0.362 0.362
Jared Keel Pirates 18.40% 23.90% 0.229 0.378 0.409 0.179 2 0.266 0.362
John Drennen Indians 16.00% 15.90% 0.27 0.395 0.397 0.127 4.8 0.321 0.361
Nick Van Stratten Royals 8.60% 13.70% 0.288 0.371 0.403 0.115 3.5 0.316 0.359

The Top 25 Carolina League Pitchers (minimum 50 IP)

Name Team K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP
Brandon Sisk Royals 11.51 2.66 0.3 0.79 0.229 77.90% 1.92 2
Michael Montgomery Royals 7.96 2.08 0 0.96 0.274 71.70% 2.25 2.3
Derrick Loop Red Sox 10.48 2.96 0.27 1.09 0.306 83.10% 1.61 2.33
Charles Shirek White Sox 6.09 2.22 0 1.22 0.311 62.50% 3.88 2.63
Bradley Meyers Nationals 6.62 2.14 0.1 1.04 0.275 83.50% 1.43 2.72
Jason Rice Red Sox 12.09 5.27 0.26 1.13 0.258 78.60% 2.44 2.81
Danny Duffy Royals 8.88 2.91 0.43 1.18 0.305 71.30% 2.98 2.84
Ryne Miller Red Sox 9.6 2.93 0.49 1.23 0.326 79.00% 2.77 2.86
Kelvin Villa Royals 7.8 2.56 0.35 1.46 0.368 70.10% 3.38 2.86
Brian Matusz Orioles 10.13 2.84 0.68 1.16 0.311 78.90% 2.16 2.91
Chen Lee Indians 10.48 3.02 0.54 1.14 0.31 73.20% 3.35 2.98
Chris Chavez Royals 7.28 4.26 0 1.5 0.338 83.10% 1.95 3.06
Eric Berger Indians 8.16 3.67 0.33 1.25 0.297 75.90% 2.45 3.14
Kyle Landis Indians 9.76 2.59 0.76 1.19 0.319 74.20% 3.05 3.15
Eammon Portice Red Sox 9.89 2.52 0.84 1.28 0.344 66.80% 4.35 3.15
Edgar Osuna Braves 6.94 1.73 0.5 1.32 0.344 63.90% 4.33 3.16
Harrison Bishop Pirates 8.14 2.68 0.56 1.21 0.309 53.20% 5.02 3.2
Matt McSwain Pirates 3.99 1.43 0.19 1.28 0.317 70.30% 3.43 3.21
Brandon Beachy Braves 7.29 2.33 0.31 1.26 0.325 63.90% 3.26 3.22
Zachary Britton Orioles 8.42 3.54 0.39 1.27 0.307 68.90% 2.7 3.26
Jose Ortegano Braves 7.62 2.45 0.52 1.08 0.274 67.20% 3.49 3.29
Thomas Palica Braves 10.28 3.66 0.7 1.3 0.326 71.40% 3.31 3.32
Dan Leatherman Nationals 8.66 2.97 0.65 1.25 0.313 75.90% 3.23 3.33
Jeff Locke - - - 7 3.11 0.35 1.48 0.35 63.80% 4.59 3.33
Robert Coello Red Sox 11.18 4.64 0.55 1.09 0.246 77.70% 2.05 3.37
Tom Milone Nationals 6.3 2.14 0.54 1.19 0.296 74.30% 2.91 3.39
Dave McKae Red Sox 6.75 1.9 0.63 1.32 0.335 63.00% 4.32 3.42
Mario Santiago Royals 6.42 2.25 0.53 1.42 0.345 64.10% 4.3 3.44
Josh Papelbon Red Sox 6.03 2.26 0.3 1.19 0.296 76.10% 2.87 3.45
Russell Young Indians 5.44 1.53 0.49 1.15 0.294 72.40% 3.28 3.46
William Atwood Nationals 7.77 2.63 0.66 1.33 0.33 64.80% 4.61 3.48
Hector Santiago White Sox 10.24 3.88 0.78 1.36 0.334 64.00% 3.88 3.49
Paolo Espino Indians 7.68 2.59 0.68 1.04 0.256 76.00% 2.59 3.55
Kyle Weiland Red Sox 7.6 3.87 0.27 1.33 0.305 68.10% 3.46 3.55
Richard Sullivan Braves 6.41 3.12 0.4 1.37 0.317 62.20% 4.25 3.64