Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Hot Stove Update: Vazquez, Rodney, Duchscherer and more

Happy Holidays!

I am a bit surprised not to have a better idea on where the big free agents (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday) are going to land. At one point I was certain that Holliday would re-sign with the Cardinals and Bay would be a New York Met but that seems far from certain. The Red Sox seem suddenly obsessed with defense after having a poor showing in 2009, though essentially the same team wasn't so bad in 2008. The Cardinals are acting as if they didn't realize that Holliday wanted a contract befitting a player ranked among the best in the sport.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets continue to act (as excellently described by the New York Post before Christmas) like a small market team. They act as if they want Jason Bay but they make offers they know he will not accept. They desperately need pitching but are chasing retreads rather than attempting to acquire talent that could make a real difference. But at least they aren't the Los Angeles Dodgers who seem more obsessed with dumping payroll than improving the team. It is hard to take a team seriously that dumps, Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre only to bring in Jamey Carroll.

It would be a massive understatement to say I have been distracted the last couple of weeks. I have a ton to catch up on. I've been banging out e-mails this week. If you've been waiting for a response from me you should be getting one very soon. The team reports will continue and hopefully appear much more frequently. My big secret project is going very well. It will be extremely useful to any fantasy owner and free to my loyal readers. I also have the annual All Sleeper Teams in progress, and a report on my Shortlist pitching strategy.

Braves trade Vazquez to Yankees for Melky Cabrera and prospects

The Yankees acquired Javier Vazquez at a bargain rate but the Braves received exactly what they wanted. For the Braves, outfield depth, bullpen depth and a quality prospect was an extra added bonus to the millions of dollars in salary relief. Atlanta would have preferred to deal Derek Lowe who had the larger salary and the worse season in 2009. But make no mistake the Braves are happy with the return.

You have already been hearing how Vazquez was thought to lack gumption, grit, fortitude, and doggedness but that's all so much baloney. Vazquez was fine the first half of his first season in New York but a shoulder injury that he kept quiet trashed his second half stats.It may have looked like a choke but it was not. If more evidence is actually required you can look to the 2009 season. The Braves were in playoff contention the entire season and Vazquez led the staff.

Vazquez does have a history of underachieving. But this looks like a combination of bad luck and playing for bad defensive teams in launching pad stadiums. His strikeout rates and walk rates have been great. His groundball rates have typically been around 40 percent. He isn't like to match his 2009 season pitching in the American League East but he should be one of the top starters. For fantasy owners he is likely to provide a ton of strikeouts and more than acceptable ratios. but pitching for the Yankees also gives owners reason to hope for a high win total. Wins are unpredictable but a fantastic offense backing a great pitcher is what you hope for and you'll find it here.

The Diamondbacks and right-hander Bob Howry have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with a team option for 2011.

The Diamondbacks are building a solid bullpen with Bob Howry added to the earlier acquisition of Aaron Heilman. Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls were already in place. Any of these names could find save chances but until we hear differently Qualls is the primary closer. Fantasy owners in deeper leagues should feel confident buying any of these relievers in the $2-3 range as cheap saves speculation. The Diamondbacks seem to be strengthening their bullpen as a method of protecting their younger arms (though the best of them was traded away recently).

Howry is a solid pitcher who does not own spectacular skills but also owns few weaknesses. He is a solid complement to any bullpen. He has the veteran savvy to handle the closer role, though he has received few opportunities. He is likely to settle into a vital set-up role with the D'Backs.

The Oakland Athletics have re-signed Justin Duchscherer to a a one-year deal pending a physical. The base salary is $2 million, but Duchscherer could earn as much as $5.5 million with incentives, should he reach benchmarks of 30 starts and 200 innings.

My first thought is that if the Athletics are spending money on him it can be taken as an indication that he is past the worst of his back, arm, and confidence problems. The A's know him better than any other team. There is no question in my mind that a healthy Duchscherer is going to pitch well. If fantasy owners can sign him at bargain rates than I heartily recommend doing so.

Duchscherer's strength has always been in his control. If he struggles early with walks, it may be a sign that things are not right. the Athletics have brought in an interesting group of players with rumors of more in the works. They feel like an underrated team to me.

The Angels have come to terms with free-agent reliever Fernando Rodney on a two-year deal reportedly worth $11 million, according to ESPNDeportes.com.

Brian Fuentes may not be the perfect closer but unless he gets hurt there is little chance of him losing his job to Fernando Rodney. The Angels may see him as a potential replacement and he is capable of getting the job done but his skills are nothing special. He should be a fine back-up plan if you own Fuentes and have room on your bench. Otherwise, Rodney is just another reliever with consistency problems. His control stinks, and even with a 4.40 ERA, his BABIP and FIP both indicate that he was a little luck last season.

Free agent corner infielder Troy Glaus and the Atlanta Braves have reached a tentative agreement on a contract, a baseball source told ESPN.com on Wednesday.

When Troy Glaus is healthy he has been a productive and powerful bat in a lineup. But staying healthy has been a problem. The Braves obviously believe that he should be healthy this season because they seem to be counting on him to fill the role of power hitting first baseman. As long as he comes dirt cheap this is a good risk for fantasy owners as well.

Nick Johnson returned to the New York Yankees on Wednesday, finalizing a $5.5 million, one-year contract.

The Yankees have plenty of thunder in their lineup. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano can probably deal with the difference between Hideki Matsui and Nick Johnson. Brett Gardner is also a better bat than you think. Johnson will bat second and his primary function will be to get on base and score runs. However, in the Yankee lineup he is likely to have more RBI than the typical number two hitter.

Jamey Carroll and Blake DeWitt "will share second base," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said Friday after Carroll passed his physical exam, making official his two-year, $3.85 million deal with the club.

Carroll is a solid player but this is obviously an attempt by the Dodgers to fill a hole without spending any money. Carroll and DeWitt will only be of marginal value in deep NL-only leagues.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Fantasy Spin on the Halladay Trade, Pierre Trade, and Much More!


Photo from fOTOGLIF

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired ace right-hander Roy Halladay (and $6 million) by sending prospects RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis d'Arnaud to the Toronto Blue Jays. ESPN.com reported that Halladay will receive $20 million per year in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The extension also includes a $20 million vesting option for 2014 based on innings pitched, games started or both. The Phillies required an extension with Halladay to make the trade.

Roy Halladay is going to be incredible for the Phillies. He does move to a worse ballpark but he gets a better defense, offense, and league in exchange. He instantly becomes the number one fantasy pitcher in the game in my book. You can't predict wins very easily but I see a ton of them in Halladay's future.

The Blue Jays send freshly acquired prospect Michael Taylor to the Oakland Athletics for top prospect 3B Brett Wallace. Brett Wallace was sent to the Athletics in exchange for Matt Holliday last season. To me this indicates that the A's either saw something in Wallace they did not like or they really like Michael Taylor.

Wallace is ready to make his major league debut. Moving to the Blue Jays should not delay that debut any further. Edwin Encarnacion would have to have a very good spring to look like a better hitter than Wallace and he isn't much better defensively (if at all). Wallace will hit for a high average and solid power.

The Phillies are also sending LHP Cliff Lee (presumably for salary reasons but also to re-stock the farm system after sending some of their best to Toronto) to the Seattle Mariners for group of prospects including RHP Phillippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies and RHP J.C. Ramirez. Lee was apparently determined to reach free agency so he could sign a Sabathia-like contract.

Playing in front of Seattle's defense and in Safeco Field also provides Cliff Lee with a huge statistical boost. If he wasn't already he now looks like a top five pitcher. If the Mariners find a couple of middle of the order hitters to go with their great set-up hitters they should make a very nice run in 2010.

From MLB.com (Not really fantasy relevant, just something to know)
A group headed by Pittsburgh sports attorney Chuck Greenberg has been selected by Rangers owner Tom Hicks to enter into exclusive negotiations to buy the franchise, according to an official announcement made by Hicks Sports Group on Tuesday.

Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan has committed to being a part of Greenberg's group and would remain in his current position as club president. Greenberg is expected to hold the position of managing general partner.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have sent outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for two minor leaguers. Pierre will play left field and hit leadoff according to reports in According to FoxSports.com, those two Minor Leaguers are starter John Ely, who won 14 games in 2009 at Double-A Birmingham, and Jon Link, who was once thought of as a potential late-inning reliever. Juan Pierre is one of those players that is a better fantasy player than real player (not that he's useless, just better for fantasy).

I expect Pierre to return to his fairly good average, lots of stolen base ways in 2010. He is not the player he used to be but he should be a quality fantasy player if you can deal with the lack of power.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

The Tampa Bay Rays Fantasy Report


Photo from fOTOGLIF
The Tampa Bay Rays are like many fantasy owners, they want everyone on their team to come at a bargain price. It is not a bad idea. However, a major league roster with this strategy will find they struggle to compete in a division like the American League East. Considering the massive store of talent collected on Tampa Bay’s major league roster and within their minor league system, you would be right to believe they have the talent necessary to acquire any player that might be available. However, the Rays prefer a spread the risk approach. They make small trades and signings for undervalued veterans and cost-controlled prospects. It is a solid approach to team building that emulated by other small market franchises hoping to influence their divisions. The only question is if this approach weakens or strengthens their ability to grow from a small market franchise into a medium or larger one. The Milwaukee Brewers are living proof that it can be done.

The 2009 season was a disappointing one for the Rays, mostly due to disappointing performances by key personnel. Scott Kazmir clearly had one of those disappointing seasons. Before the Rays sent him to the Los Angeles Angels (a deal that reduced the payroll and brought in even more prospects), Kazmir pitched 111 innings in 20 starts that resulted in a 8-7 record with a 5.92 ERA, and 1.541 WHIP. B.J. Upton was expected to start slowly due to his recovery from shoulder surgery but few would have anticipated the season long absence of power and production. Free agent acquisition Pat Burrell batted just .221/.315/.367 with just 14 homeruns in 476 plate appearances. Dioner Navarro failed to build on his lucky but still promising 2008 season. In fact, Navarro had the worst season of his career with a 52 OPS+ in 410 plate appearances, but this may have been due to an injured ulnar ligament in his left elbow. Akinori Iwamura missed most of the season due to injury but that may have been a blessing in disguise. The Rays were happy to trade Iwamura after the season knowing they had Ben Zobrist to fill his position.

However, it was not all bad news. The studly Evan Longoria is a Tampa Bay Ray. The aforementioned Ben Zobrist had an MVP quality season that by some measures ranked him as the best hitter in the American League in 2009. Shortstop Jason Bartlett had a career season with a slash of .320/.389/.490 with 14 homeruns and 30 stolen bases. Carl Crawford returned to first round form by slashing .305/.364/.452 with 15 homeruns and 60 stolen bases. The pitching staff is loaded with talent with more in the pipeline. James Shields, Matt Garza, and Jeff Niemann were all above average starters in 2009 with two extremely high quality former prospects, David Price and Wade Davis, expected to fill out the rotation in 2010. The Rays may face an uphill battle in the American League East but with a loaded minor league system and a roster full of high-end young players, there is a lot to be optimistic about.

Fantasy Focus

Ben Zobrist, 2B
If you were paying attention, you saw that Ben Zobrist stepped up his performance beginning in 2008. His spectacular 2009 season was just proof that the improvements he made were not just the result of a small sample size. He has always demonstrated the ability to draw walks and make solid contact. He has shown improving power the last four years but especially in the 2008 season. Zobrist gives a considerable amount of credit for his improvement to private hitting coach Jaime Cevallos, known as the swing mechanic. Here is a quote from an interview that Cevallos gave Tommy Rancel of D’Rays Bay in April of 2009.
I asked if a team gave Zobrist 500 at-bats in a season how many home runs he'd hit. Cevallos didn't hesitate, "30 plus."
We all know what happened after that. Coincidence? Probably. Clearly, the training that Zobrist was receiving had a result and it was the result intended.

Zobrist’s 2009 slash of .297/.405/.543 with 28 doubles, 7 triples, 27 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases may seem impossible for Zobrist to duplicate but I do not think they are. Obviously, Zobrist had an otherworldly first half, and a merely great second half. Nevertheless, even if we double his second half numbers (an interesting but not predictive practice) Zobrist would have a line of .298/.395/.490 with 26 doubles, six triples, 20 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases in just 510 at-bats. Hitting high in the batting order and likely to play every day at second base, almost guarantees that Zobrist will receive closer to 600 at-bats.

But besides the positive trending in his stats there is also his superb plate discipline. He swings at pitches outside the strike zone just 20.2 percent of the time in his career – far below the major league average. He has a career walk rate of 11 percent and has exceeded that mark the last two seasons. He has strong linedrive rates (an indication of strong BABIPs), and a 17.45 HR/FB percentage the last two seasons. There is very little not to like.

Zobrist needs a repeat to convince most fantasy owners that he can maintain a high rate of production. The fan predictions on FanGraphs.com are solid but far short of his 2009 marks. This may indicate that his auction price could stay in a reasonable range. He will qualify at 2B and OF in most leagues and even shortstop in some leagues. He should be a solid value pick in most leagues in the third or fourth rounds and could provide first round value.

Jason Bartlett, SS
There is little question that Jason Bartlett had a career season in 2009. The question to answer is how much of that stellar performance we can expect to see in 2010. Bartlett’s .368 BABIP is significantly higher than his career .330 BABIP. His 2009 8.7 percent HR/FB is more than double his career average. His 26 percent linedrive rate is high, his career average is 21.8 percent. His isolated power increased to .170 when his career mark is just .107 including the 2009 season. These are all stats I expect to see closer to his career rates in 2010. However, Bartlett showed some increased skills not to be ignored. His plate discipline was very good. He swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. Bartlett’s walk rate increased (along with his K-rate, but he still makes excellent contact).

Many Rays fans on the better fan sites seem to believe that Bartlett’s improvements were almost entirely fluke but I do not believe that is the case. I have also heard that the Rays would rather move Bartlett than prospect Reid Brignac. I can see the logic in the idea but I doubt the Rays are trying to move either at this point. The 2009 season may always be the best in Jason Bartlett’s career but I expect another good one in 2010.

David Price, RHP
After a reign as the best pitching prospect in the minors, many fantasy owners believed that Price would come to the majors and immediately dominate the competition. That was a mistake. Price struggled with his control at AAA Durham in both 2008 and 2009 in small samples. Therefore, it was not a complete surprise that those control problems followed him into the major leagues. However, as the season progressed Price saw his control improve. His strikeout rate fluctuated as he learned to harness his stuff. As the season ended (especially in August) Price was once again looking like a potentially great pitcher. His walk rate was falling and his groundball rate was increasing. His K9 was just 5.9 in the second half but I would not worry about it at this point. I expect a better season in 2010 for Price though not without a few more growing pains. In the end, it should be worth it.

Searching for Sleepers

Jacob McGee, RHP
If you take a brief glance at Jacob McGee’s Baseball-Reference page, you will ask why the Rays are not making room for him in their major league rotation. He will appear in the majors this season. McGee could even debut in the bullpen out of Spring Training. His ability to strike out batters and to induce groundballs indicates that he can be a potentially dominating closer. The Rays have no one else in their bullpen (without demoting someone that projects into their rotation) with the potential to dominate like McGee. The Rays have just acquired Rafael Soriano who may become their 2010 closer. But McGee qualifies as a sleeper candidate for this year and in the near future.

Best Team Blogs for the Tampa Bay Rays

Drays Bay - http://www.draysbay.com/

Rays Index - http://www.raysindex.com/

Rays Report - http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/related/C142/

Dock of the Rays - http://dockoftherays.com/

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Granderson to the Yankees and the Rest of the Big Trade


Photo from fOTOGLIF

It is not quite official yet but it appears that the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, and Arizona Diamondbacks have completed a three-way trade at the Winter Meetings (and on Peter Gammon's last day at ESPN).
From ESPN:

The Yanks would acquire center fielder Curtis Granderson (from the Tigers), the Diamondbacks would get right-handers Edwin Jackson (Tigers) and Ian Kennedy (Yankees), and the Tigers would pick up center fielder Austin Jackson (Yankees), left-handed relievers Phil Coke (Yankees) and left-handed reliever Daniel Schlereth and right-handed starter Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks).
The Yankees do a good job of replacing Johnny Damon in left by acquiring Granderson. I do believe he will wind up in left field. This is primarily because I believe that Brian Cashman wants to put his best possible defense on the field and that includes Brett Gardner in center field. Melky Cabrera should be the fourth outfielder in that scenario with Nick Swisher staying in right field.

Granderson is at his best when he pulls the ball which makes Yankee Stadium a great place for him to play. last season Granderson went through a dramatic transformation from a groundball hitter to a flyball hitter. It caused his BABIP and subsequently his batting average to fall dramatically. It also resulted in a career high homerun total. I believe that there should be a happy medium in there somewhere and I'm absolutely certain the Yankees and hitting coach Kevin Long will work to find it.

The Tigers make out with two great arms from the D'Backs and a few odds and ends that should prove useful. Austin Jackson should be an adequate center fielder who steals bases well. But he will not provide much beyond that. He has always been expected to develop power but it would be a surprise if he found it in 2010. Max Scherzer has fantastic stuff (and violent injury-inducing mechanics) and could be either a frontline starter or a top-notch closer, Daniel Schlereth is similar (from the left side) to Scherzer but will definitely be in the bullpen. At this point he has to be considered at least a mild sleeper to become the closer. Phil Coke is better than the average lefty specialist and should be an asset in the Tigers bullpen.

Edwin Jackson has amazing stuff but often pitches like a fringy finesse guy. He wore down as the 2009 season continued thanks largely to a heavy workload. I believe he'll be a fine starter for the D'Backs who should benefit from the AL to NL switch. Ian Kennedy is not a hard thrower but has potential as a mid rotation starter or bullpenner.

Better Fantasy Value: Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Same Fantasy Value: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke

Worse Fantasy Value: None

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Yankees Trade Brian Bruney to Nationals

From the Washington Times:

The Washington Nationals made the first trade of the 2009 MLB winter meetings Monday, acquiring right-handed reliever Brian Bruney from the New York Yankees for a player to be named and making an early, if marginal, move to improve a bullpen that often struggled to protect leads last season.
Brian Bruney is a solid bullpen arm that the Yankees always seemed to like. The rumor is that the Yankees have traded Bruney for the Nationals' number one selection in the upcoming Rule V Draft. The Nationals have the first overall pick. The Yankees must really like someone who will be available to make a move like this. The Yankees just don't need the typical Rule V pick hanging around on their roster. This should be fun.

Bruney should be an asset to the Nationals' bullpen. He has good stuff and has been called a possible closer in the past. But the results have not been very exciting so far and he probably is not a massive improvement over Saul Rivera who was released as a consequence. Bruney has solid strikeout rates and poor walk rates. He is not particularly fantasy worthy but the Yankees' interest in this trade makes it interesting.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Free Agent Signing Updates

I am constantly updating the free-agent posts I made last month with all the new signings. To make them easier to find I'm going to periodically update this post to the top of the page. I list all the free agents by position, and include what they signed for and a link to an article with more details.

Free Agent Catchers

Free Agent First Basemen

Free Agent Second Basemen


Free Agent Third Basemen

Free Agent Shortstops


Free Agent Outfielders

Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Free Agent Relief Pitchers