A Few Good Sleepers and Three Good Interviews

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My day job (which unfortunately is not writing this blog) has been kicking my ass the last couple of months. I have no time to do anything and I am exhausted by the time stumble into the house. But this isn't that kind of blog. I mention all that because I need another day on the Sleeper Teams to be happy with the article. I know its already a couple of weeks late so I've decided to give you a preview of a few players in the article. You'll notice I provide much more information about the players than I did last few years. I hope you enjoy this preview, the real thing should be published on Thursday at the latest.

But before we get to those sleepers, here are links to a few great interviews you should definitely check out:

Marc Carig of the Star Ledger interviews Former Padres GM, Kevin Towers.

John Sickles interviews Mark Newman, Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations for the New York Yankees.

C. Trent Rosecrans of CNati.com delivers a two-part interview of Bill James. and Part Two

OF – Hunter Pence, Houston Astros – Pence has had small but steady improvements in his walk rates the last three seasons. He cut his strikeout rate in 2009 and improved his plate discipline by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. I would love to see him hit more line drives. He is also 27 with experience if you like that old theory. It fits in this case because I think we are about to see a career year from Pence.

3B – Mark Teahen, Chicago White Sox – Back at third base where he started the White Sox are hoping that Teahen can recapture what he seemed to lose being shuffled around the infield and outfield with the Royals. He has the talent to be an above average player. He has a brand new opportunity; he only needs to take advantage. The change in ballparks helps too. Though his new home tends to help more with home run hitting than batting average.

CR – Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels – I get annoyed with the Angels all the time. They have these great prospects and they make them wait much longer than seems necessary to earn a major league job. But maybe I should get over it. When they needed Erick Aybar to play regularly, he was ready. Juan Rivera (I know a Yankees prospect) was also ready when needed. Kendry Morales was ready when needed. They traded for Scott Kazmir who was having the worst season of his career and suddenly he was ready as well. Now, they seem to think Brandon Wood is ready to become their full time third baseman. I agree. He has reduced his massive strikeouts totals to a reasonable level. The power is still there to hit 25-35 homeruns a season on a consistent basis. I love him.

UTL/DH – Jesus Montero, New York Yankees – There is little hype around Jesus Montero becoming the 2010 Rookie of the Year. This is primarily due to Jorge Posada filling the catcher position (and Monetero’s need for continued development there) and Nick Johnson’s arrival as the new designated hitter. If Johnson requires a stint on the disabled list (as has often been the case), it would probably herald the arrival of Jesus Montero to the major leagues. It is only a matter of time. Then we will see a Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado level of talent hit the majors.

Fantasyland - Watch the Documentary Film for Free!

I wrote about he book Fantasyland: A Sportswriter's Obsessive Bid to Win the World's Most Ruthless Fantasy Baseball when it came out a few years ago. It is a great book and it deserves a place on the bookshelf of any fantasy sports fan. I was given he privilege of watching the film a little earlier than the release and I can tell you that it is very well done. The production is excellent. The progression of the storyline keeps you extremely interested. Will he really try to make a trade while his wife delivers a baby? Will he be divorced at the end of the film? I worry that the non-initiated will get the wrong idea about what the average fantasy sports fan is like. However, I suggest that everyone head over to SnagFilms.com and watch the free movie.

Or just watch it right here...





From the site:

Based on the bestselling book by Sam Walker, Fantasyland, directed by Stephen Palgon, traces a single season in the expert baseball league Tout Wars. But this wasn’t any ordinary season. This season an outsider, a fan, a non expert, would compete against the greatest minds in fantasy baseball including the founder of Tout Wars and one of the icons of the industry Ron Shandler. To compete against the experts, Jed Latkin, a financial analyst from New York is willing to do anything and everything in his quest to win Tout Wars. Jed is more than just a fantasy baseball player, he puts the “fanatic” in fantasy.

In order to beat the experts Jed attempts to play fantasy for real and hits the road to meet, motivate and plead with actual Major League Baseball players to perform well for his squad the Jedi Knights. He presents players like Gary Sheffield, Justin Verlander, Carl Crawford, JJ Putz, Ichiro with team jerseys in hopes of inspiring his players to lead the Jedi Knights to the top of the Tout Wars standings.

Fantasyland is NOT a film about statistics but rather a glimpse into the world of fantasy sports and the personalities, characters and stories that make up this billion dollar industry. It is a journey with Jed Latkin, one of the most wild and crazy, obsessed fantasy sports players you will ever meet.

Fantasyland is produced by Wonderland Sound and Vision and Endgame Entertainment.

Joe Nathan Considering Surgery and Other Bits

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Minnesota Twins closer, Joe Nathan, has a significant tear in his right elbow's ulnar collateral ligament. This is the type of injury that usually requires Tommy John Surgery. The Twins and Nathan are choosing to explore rehab and strengthening the surrounding muscles before committing to the operation which would certainly end Nathan's 2010 season and put his 2011 season in jeopardy. I have serious doubts that the surgery will work. I am not a doctor but we've seen this situation before and it almost never works out.

This news certainly sucks for those that have already drafted Nathan (not to mention Nathan himself and the Twins). The question on most fantasy-oriented minds is who will replace Nathan as closer while he is rehabbing/recovering. There are two options. The most popular choice at the moment is Jon Rauch, who has closer stuff and has closed before for short periods with the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. The other option is Matt Guerrier who has been a very effective reliever (even if a little lucky in 2009) for the Twins.

I like both options. I believe the Twins will make Jon Rauch as their first choice because of his prior experience. He does have a bit of an injury history however. So picking up Guerrier as insurance or as a late round/low cost saves option makes a lot of sense. Jon Rauch will provide you with typical closer stats - strikeouts in bunches and quality ratios. Guerrier will cost less and could potentially provide even better ratios but the strikeouts will not be as impressive.

There are a few other options worth a buck at the end of your auction or a reserve round pick - Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares. All three have great stuff with different things keeping them from being ideal options. Neshek is coming off Tommy John Surgery and pitchers usually require at least a few months on the mound before they rediscover their former stuff (if they ever do). Jesse Crain isn't the fireballing closer candidate he used to be but is still an effective reliever and his name has been linked with closer opportunities before. Jose Mijares certainly has the stuff but is the only (certain) lefty in the pen and lacks experience.

UPDATE: The Advanced Fantasy Baseball Community Leagues
The response to the AFBCL has been overwhelming. There are a few owners who have been sent invitations who have not yet accepted. I plan to give them another day or so to accept before I give their spots away. There seems to be enough interest to have a second league, though I'm not certain about prizes just yet. If you are interested but figured all the spots were filled go ahead and send me an e-mail expressing your interest. If you have already sent one, no need to send another, I'll assume you are for now.

The All Sleeper Teams Are Coming This Weekend
The fifth annual All Sleeper Teams article will be released this weekend. This is the most packed edition yet. There are more sleeper teams (categories) and dozens and dozens of sleepers with longer write-ups than in past years. You do not want to miss this piece before your draft or auction so be certain to sign up for e-mails or the RSS Feed, links are available in the sidebar on the main page of the blog.

The Advanced Fantasy Baseball Community League

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Are you looking for another fantasy league? The Advanced Fantasy Baseball Community League is now open for business. It is a 20 team league with deep rosters. This should be a challenge for owners of all experience levels. The Snake Draft is set for Saturday, March 27, 2010 at 3:00 PM ET.

The league will be free but the top six owners will receive Amazon.com Gift Cards. First Place will receive $100, second place $50, and third place $25. The three through six spots will receive $10 cards. If you are interested send an e-mail to Jon@AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com and I'll send you an invitation.

Matt LaPorta VS Michael Brantley

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If he had managed to stay healthy Matt LaPorta would probably be entrenched either in left field or at first base. In fact until the Indians signed Russell Branyan, LaPorta was the consensus starter at first base and Michael Brantley looked like a near lock to man left field for the tribe. Most writers are now speculating that Brantley and LaPorta are now competing for just one spot on the major league roster, with the most likely scenario being LaPorta in left field and Brantley in triple-A. I am not as positive that is the case, though I have no inside information. But applying some logic this is what I'm thinking:

1. Both Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta seem to be in Cleveland's long term plans. So delaying either player from establishing himself in the majors seems counter-productive.

2. Russell Branyan has some injury concerns which may limit his playing time. Enough concerns that Brantley or LaPorta could potentially receive enough at-bats to justify a spot on the major league roster ahead of Trevor Crowe or Austin Kearns.

3. Based on the most recent results and scouting reports, the trio of Brantley, LaPorta, and Branyan is bound to be more productive than Kearns, Crowe and just one of the younger players.

4. LaPorta is coming off hip and toe surgeries and there exists the possibility that Brantley will outplay him this spring. In that case, would not the Indians send LaPorta to the minors instead of Brantley?

I was somewhat surprised to learn that (at least in the majors in admittedly small sample sizes) Matt LaPorta was the better defensive player. Brantley had a UZR/150 of 5.8 in left field, and -49.3 in center field. LaPorta had a 8.9 UZR/150 at first base, and -8.7 in left field but 15.4 in right field. It probably isn't much of a consideration for the Indians at this point but I think its interesting at least.

Matt LaPorta appears to have solid but unspectacular power. He combines what I would call 20-30 homerun power with solid but again unspectacular plate discipline. I would place his ceiling as a player somewhere around Nick Markakis and his floor at Matt Diaz. From that you can infer that I believe he is a solid major league player, the question is only how good can he be.

From Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta speaking of Matt LaPorta:

"He's going to get 500 at-bats, if he's healthy," manager Manny Acta said. "That's what's important here."

Michael Brantley has had solid walk rates and good contact numbers throughout his minor league career. He does not hit for power but has very good speed on the bases and is capable of stealing 30-40 bases in a season. Cleveland doesn't appear to be very high on him but he deserves more respect. Especially when the alternative is Austin Kearns.

Five Tips for Keeper League Owners

If you really want to capture the feeling of running a team of your own, you need to be in a keeper league. It truly adds another dimension of fun to fantasy leagues. Obviously, not every league uses the same rules regarding which players and how many can be kept. However, here are Five Tips you can use to dominate your keeper league.

1. Don't Focus on Just Minor Leaguers - Many owners convince themselves they are running the Pittsburgh Pirates and enter a continual state of re-building. They trade their studs at the end of every season for a collection of minor leaguers and fresh call-ups. In fantasy you can re-build just as well (if not better) with a $8 Aaron Harang (yes, I like him this season) as you can with a $10 Wade Davis.
2. At Value Players and Minor Bargains Can be the Best Keepers - Your $40 Albert Pujols or $35 Chase Utley is often a much better keeper than your $3 James Loney (I like him too) or your $7 Brian Roberts (one of my favorites). The value of a player is much more important than his price.
   
3. Cheap Does Not Equal Keeper - Although we all hope that our one dollar relievers turn into closers and our $2 utility player earns a starting job but it rarely happens that way. Just because that utility guy hit .280 with 8 homeruns in just 200 at-bats does not mean that you should keep him. If at all possible you want to preserve the opportunity to draft a full-time starter in every spot.
4. Roster Spots are like Gold - I have watched tons of owners treat their Corner Infielder Middle Infielder, and Utility positions as if they were not important. They bid aggressively at the auction and build reputations as tough traders only to waste spots on Geoff Blum (because he inspires poetry), Doug Mientkiewicz (because they like his name) and Eric Gagne (because he used to be your favorite player).
5. This Season is Most Important - Sure, it is nice to imagine creating a dynasty with your large collection of cheap young players. But if you are considering tossing your $6 Ryan Franklin back into the draft because your think your $5 Chris Perez is the next closer for the Indians, you really need to think again. Play for this year, keep the future in mind, but the future should always be second to this season's chance at fantasy gold.
   

A Quick Guide to Calculating Inflation and Preparing a Freeze List

What is the deal with inflation in fantasy leagues? Though the math is relatively simple, inflation in fantasy leagues is one of those things that never fails to confuse and even irritate fantasy owners. Many owners do not bother to calculate it, with varying levels of success. However I think it is important to do so.

Some Terms to understand

Cost - The dollar amount attached to a player on a roster. (Albert Pujols cost $40)
Value - The amount a player is worth to a team in your league. (Albert Pujols is valued at $51 by BaseballHQ)
Profit - The difference between a players Cost and his Value. (If Pujols cost $40 and is valued at $51 his profit is $11)

What is Draft Inflation
Draft inflation is the cost beyond a players perceived value in an auction caused by budget dollars that exceed the value of the available player pool. A player's inflated value is his projected price on draft/auction day with inflation accounted for. It is important to know this value so you can properly evaluate what it will take to purchase a given player. It will also alert you to potential bargains and warn you of potential pitfalls during your auction.

When to Calculate Inflation
It is smart to calculate inflation frequently because it will change. First an estimated inflation should be calculated before you declare your keepers. This will give you a bit more information on the available player pool and the cost of the players you need and could convince you to change your keeper list. Inflation should be calculated again when the actual freeze rosters are announced. This is the most crucial calculation and will advance your auction prep. Inflation should also be calculated as frequently as possible during your auction. Inflation will change with each player acquisition. I elaborate on in-draft inflation below.

Things to consider before declaring your keepers in an Auction League

• Not every low-priced player is worth keeping. Treat every roster spot like gold.
• Having the best built-in profit going into the draft is nice, but having the most built in value (at the right prices) is more important.
  
• Is there depth in the player pool (or a lack) that might make a certain player worth keeping (or not)?
  
• Don't look for balance in your keeper list, instead look to maximize value.
  
• Consider the long term value of your players and also their cost as they develop. It may be more effective to place a player back into the draft and buy them at a higher price in exchange for a longer contract.
  

How to Calculate Inflation
Inflation equals (money to spend) divided by (value of remaining talent). Multiply each free agent player’s individual value by this amount and you will have the inflated value of each player. Some owners choose to make separate inflation calculations for pitchers and hitters.

In a standard 12-team auction league, with 23-man rosters and a $260 salary cap, there is a total of $3,120 to spend on 276 players. If the owners in our keeper league decide to freeze players with salaries totaling $1,000 but with a projected value of $1,500, then the players remaining in the player pool have a projected value of $1.620. However, the owners now have an extra $500, giving our owners $2,120 to spend on players worth just $1,620. We calculate our inflation by taking the money left to spend divided by the value of the remaining talent or $2,120/$1,620. This results in an inflation of 1.3086, or 31 percent. So if Pujols is valued at $51 and inflation is 31 percent, Pujols has an inflated value of 66.7386 or $67. So if Pujols is the first player called in the above scenario anything less than $67 spent on him should be considered a bargain.

The Per-Player Budget
An essential part of any auction strategy is the per-player budget. This is simply a guideline to the types of players you wish to acquire. On a piece of paper, list the positions required on each roster. Then fill in the names and salaries of anyone on your freeze list (if this is not a keeper league, then you get to skip that step). Next, divide your player acquisition budget amongst the slots with the approximate amounts it will take to roster the players you wish to own. A top outfielder may cost $40, a top-tier closer may go for $35. When all the slots are full and they total the amount you actually have left to spend, you will have completed your per player budget. Spend some time familiarizing yourself with the various players that might fit into these slots, but don’t become too attached to any one player or you could find yourself overbidding to get him.

A proper budget ensures that your team will acquire at least its fair share of the available talent. If there is $1,620 worth of talent available for 12 teams and we assume the freeze lists hold equal amounts of talent (a horrible assumption, I know) each owner must acquire at least $135 worth of talent to stay equal to their rivals. Thus, you must strive to use your remaining money to acquire talent as far exceeding that amount as possible.

In-Draft Inflation
Every auction has moments when players are either being overpriced or going at bargain prices. It is vital to your success that you understand when these periods are happening. In-draft inflation can be tricky to get a handle of when you are trying to track your draft and the rosters of your opponents. The easy way to monitor it is to use a program like RotoLab or Diamond Draft. The software will track the inflation in your auction every step of the way.

However, if you are forced to calculate it by hand, you can use my convenient shortcut. After the first player purchase, jot down how much above or below value (according to your projections) that player was. Do the same for every player that follows – adding or subtracting the difference in dollars. This will leave you with a running tally of how much above or below value the auction is at any given moment. If the number is a large positive value, then players have been overpriced and bargains are about to ensue. If the number is a large negative, the players have been bargains and the correction is coming soon. If the total stays at or just above or below zero, players are going almost exactly as you projected.

An Example from the Mailbag
I received the following e-mail from a reader. The message has been slightly edited and the names changed to protect the innocent...

I had an amazing team last year and was crushing my league all season until a traumatizing final day of the season comeback by the guy in second place where he gained 8 points and I lost 3...

In our league we can select 4 players to keep. Traditional logic would say that I should keep Wandy Rodriguez ($1) Ubaldo ($1) Tommy Hanson ($3) and Aaron Hill (3$) because they would give me the greatest relative value. However I also have on my team Pujols ($38) Kemp ($25) Ellsbury ($18) and Longoria ($25) who would all present some savings but not as much as the previous 4 I mentioned.

The league also has another weird rule that says that new teams are allowed to select any 4 players who were on a teams roster last year but not kept. I feel like if I go for the first 4 players I mentioned I would be doing well value wise, but the 2 new incoming managers would almost certainly keep the latter 4 who are all superior players but provide less value. How would you pick?

Thanks,
XXXXXX

This does look like a tough decision. The first step is to look at the projected value of each of our potential keepers. (Values are from BaseballHQ.com)

	Player	Cost	Proj. Value	Profit
	Wandy Rodriguez	1	27	26
	Ubaldo Jimenez	1	23	22
	Tommy Hanson	3	23	20
	Aaron Hill	3	17	14
	Albert Pujols	38	44	6
	Matt Kemp	25	38	13
	Jacoby Ellsbury	18	31	13
	Evan Longoria	25	26	1

If we were interested in having the greatest built-in profit we would keep Wandy Rodriguez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tommy Hanson, and Aaron Hill just as our reader suggested. They combine for a cost of just $8 with a collective value of $90 and a profit of $82. That is a pretty nice group of players to have. But is it the best group?

If we take the four most valuable players we would take Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Wandy Rodriguez. Their combined cost would be much higher at $82 but with a collective value of $140 and profit of $58. This is also a good group. But is it more valuable to have $74 more dollars to spend or $50 more value or $24 more profit? This is a tough question to answer without knowing the league more intimately and having more details on the available player pool.

You could attempt to build a combination of players but I believe the second group is the way to go. The only change I'd be tempted to make would be to substitute Ubaldo Jimenez for Jacoby Ellsbury. This is based on my belief that cheap steals will be relatively easy to come by this season. As you will see when I release the All-Sleeper Teams later this week.