Friday, July 09, 2010

Cliff Lee Traded to the Texas Rangers

Cliff Lee has been traded within the American League but not to the New York Yankees as many were speculating. Instead, the Seattle Mariners have sent Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and prospect right-hander Blake Beavan, Frisco reliever Josh Lueke and second baseman-outfielder Matt Lawson.

Texas Stadium (or the Ballpark or whatever) is not an ideal place for any pitcher to call home. But Lee owners should not panic. Lee will be pitching in front of a solid defense team. Whatever he loses because of the park (not a lot I expect) should be more than compensated for in offensive support.

Smoak as a left-handed power hitter should be able to succeed in Seattle's pitching park. More on the prospects after I get to do a little research.

The Return of Carlos Beltran

Less than a week from today Carlos Beltran is expected to be on the field for the New York Mets. That is something that has been impossible to say with any conviction for most of the last two seasons. Beltran missed a large part of the 2009 season and the entire first half of the 2010 season basically preparing and then recovering from surgery on his right knee. On July 15th he is expected to return as center fielder of the New York Mets. But how much can he contribute?

Before the 2009 season, Beltran was considered one of the best players in baseball and one of the more consistent fantasy options. In NL-only leagues Beltran is probably already on someone's roster. In the shallower mixed leagues he may still be available. Beltran contributed in every batting category. I still expect Beltran to hit for average. He is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball. He rarely swings at balls out of the strikezone and has an extremely good contact rate. He has a career .302 BABIP and a .283 career batting average.

Beltran has been one of the better base-stealers in the game. His success rate has always been one of the best in baseball. Although he has not stolen 40 bases (nor more than 25) in several years, he has been a consistent threat to steal 20 or so bases a season. This was true even last season before the injury when he had 11 stolen bases (1 cs) in 308 at-bats. I expect we will see Beltran attempt fewer stolen bases. Even if the knee is healthy I think the Mets will do everything in their power to keep him healthy which unfortunately includes taking away the green light.

Mets manager Jerry Manuel has suggested installing Beltran directly into the third spot in the lineup. He told ESPN.com that it depended on Beltran's energy level and also a bit on David Wright's production.
"I've thought about it a couple of different ways," the manager said. "If he appears fresh, I was thinking of having him probably third. If not, I'll probably bat him around fifth or sixth."
And asked about keeping NL RBI Leader, David Wright in the third spot.
"As long as he keeps doing that, we could bat Carlos right after him [at cleanup] and give David that switch hitter with experience behind him to make sure he stays hot," Manuel said. "Not that [incumbent No. 4 hitter] Ike Davis doesn't hit, but [Beltran] is an All-Star player -- a switch hitter, power both sides."
Before he succumbed to the knee injury, Beltran was enjoying a fairly good season marred only by a disturbing lack of power. In retrospect, it is not difficult to surmise that the knee was bothering him all along and playing with the injury was sapping his power. However, the 33-year old Beltran has also experienced a three-year decline in HR/FB (21.1, 17.1, 15.7, 10.8) one of the leading indicators of a player's power. It is very possible that with the knee finally fixed, there is a rebound in Beltran's power numbers. That seems likely to me. Beltran's batted ball ratios have remained steady. My guess is he bats at a 20-30 homer pace which should make most owners happy.

In Conclusion
Fantasy owners should scoop up Carlos Beltran if he is still available. If he is truly healthy he should hit for both average and power in the middle of a productive lineup. The Mets will protect him at first but within a few weeks I expect the kid gloves to be off.
For the balance of the season look for a line like this:

300 at-bats .290/.375/530 with 12-15 homers, 60 runs, 50 RBI, 3-5 stolen bases

What Beltran's Return Means for Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur
Manager Jerry Manuel has stated that Beltran will play two games and receive at least one day and perhaps two days off before starting again. This should ensure that both Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur receive plenty of at-bats. There has been a lot of debate on who will start when Beltran plays and who should start between Pagan and Francoeur.

When Beltran and Bay are both in the lineup, the most likely scenario is that Pagan plays against right-handers and Francoeur will start against left-handers. Obviously when Beltran is out of the lineup, they should both start. Francouer will probably pinch-hit and play late inning defense quite a bit when he is on the bench.

Chime In - Join the Conversation By Adding to the Comments Section
Are you targeting Beltran? Is my projection for the balance of the season too optimistic? Will he make the Mets better or disturb the chemistry of a team playing fairly well? Let us know what you think in the comments section!

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Call To The Pen

Hi everyone, my name's Andre (aka 3FingersBrown) and I'm the newest contributor to Advanced Fantasy Baseball. Jon was kind enough to pick me up off of the waiver wire and give me an opportunity to share my baseball insights and observations with you and I hope you'll find what I have to say useful and entertaining.

I've been involved with fantasy baseball for six years but I've been playing baseball simulations since the mid-80's, be it through pen and paper games like Strat-o-matic or computer sims such as Micro League Baseball and Earl Weaver.

As long as I can remember baseball has been an obsession. From the moment I gripped a bat, to the day I opened the cover of "Moneyball," my passion for the game has only grown over the years. As I've gotten deeper into fantasy baseball and begun reading more advanced statistical analysis, I have begun to focus my writing on my favorite sport, ultimately starting my own baseball blog, Three True Outcomes.

Currently I'm playing in two leagues. One is a 5x5, 15-team mixed roto league, that counts OBP instead of AVG and features NFBC style rosters. My home league, which drafts live, is a 6x6 (standard 5x5 plus OBP and QS) 12-team mixed keeper league. Now in it's fourth year, I'm coming off a championship season in 2009 and I have my eyes set on a repeat performance.

I have a background in the film and television industry, where I've worked in a number of different roles over the years. I'm also a freelance writer with work in a variety of subjects such as music, film and pop-culture essays, commercial copy and screen-writing. One of the die-hard Flushing Faithful, I'm holding out hope that this is the year that the Mets finally return to championship glory after a 24 year drought.

I'll be posting on a number of different baseball-related topics such as in-depth player profiles, prospects, advanced statistical analysis, fantasy strategy and more. With all that said, I'm looking forward to continuing the endless narrative that our great American pastime provides - so lets Play ball!

First-Half Offensive MVPs, Goats and Waiver Wire Studs

I know Jon posted his fantasy all-stars yesterday, but I have been working on this for a few days now, so please forgive me if there is a little bit of repetition here. I will go by league and position pointing out the MVP, Goat and Waiver Wire stud (someone who went undrafted according to average draft position in ESPN leagues) with a very brief description of my reasoning. For outfielders, I will pick two of each. Let’s get some good discussion going on this!

Catcher
AL MVP: Victor Martinez – The lack of depth at catcher really shines through in the AL. Joe Mauer is hitting a great .301, but has managed just 4 HR this season, so the honor falls to Martinez, who definitely struggled mightily out of the gate, but has turned things around in the last couple months.
NL MVP: Miguel Olivo – Not only is Olivo the MVP on the power of a .311 average with 11 HR, but he is also my pick for WW Stud at the position in the NL. He was largely undrafted in ESPN leagues this season (he was the 16th choice among catchers).
AL Goat: A.J. Pierzynski – The disaster of a season for the former all-star catcher seemed to be turning around in early June, but he has fallen back into a slump and his batting average sits at .237. He is 1-for-15 in July so far.
NL Goat: Bengie Molina – Since Bengie was just traded to the AL last week, I will still count him as a NLer for this article’s purposes. Molina looks like he has turned the corner (in a negative way) and has struggled to a .255/.310/.325 mark with just 3 HR this season. This is a guy who belted 20 HR last year!
AL WW Stud: John Buck – Wasn’t drafted at all this season pretty much anywhere and stands sixth overall in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Olivo (see above)

First Base
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera – Beast. Total, unadulterated B-E-A-S-T. He is by far and away the points leader on the season.
NL MVP: Joey Votto – Votto edges out Albert Pujols by virtue of having one more HR and a few points higher batting average on the day I wrote this. Of course it could go either way.
AL Goat: Chris Davis – If you drafted him (he went 153rd overall on average in ESPN leagues), you likely don’t have him anymore. He’s the dictionary definition of the term BUST.
NL Goat: Todd Helton – Hey, this guy has treated us to years and years of terrific production. Age has just seemed to catch up to him now, as he is dealing right now with a gimpy back and hammy to go with a career-low .246 BA.
AL WW Stud There really haven’t been any players who were truly “undrafted” that have made a huge impact; however, with a few more good games this month, Russell Branyan would take the honor – I’m just not ready to hand it over yet.
NL WW Stud: Aubrey Huff – Huff has as many points as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder this season. For someone who started the year on every waiver wire, that’s amazing. Yes, I know he plays mostly OF now, but he qualifies at 1B everywhere.

Second Base
AL MVP: Robinson Cano – Cano is the easy choice here – not only is he blowing away everybody in the league in scoring, but his best competition, Dustin Pedroia, is injured right now.
NL MVP: Martin Prado – A pair of HR last night raised Prado’s SLG% to an even .500. I thought this guy was going to be a slap hitter! A lack of stolen bases is distressing, but his numbers across the board have been pretty astounding. Oh yeah, he was the 15th second baseman taken on average in ESPN leagues.
AL Goat: Aaron Hill – This guy is making me pull my own hair out. He hasn’t been able to get himself over the Mendoza Line for more than a couple days all season long. Hill’s draft-day price (8th second baseman taken, on average) makes him one of the biggest busts on this list. Apologies to Brian Roberts, I know you deserve to be here too!
NL Goat: Chase Utley – Not many choices on the NL side, so considering his average draft position (first 2B taken with the 6th overall pick on average), I will call him the goat. The fact that he will miss all of July and most of August will have many owners agreeing.
AL WW Stud: Alberto Callaspo – He has quietly been having an above-average season so far, with 8 HR and a .279 average.
NL WW Stud: Juan Uribe – Freddy Sanchez and Edgar Renteria’s injuries helped propel Uribe to 12 HR and 46 RBI this season. Definitely above replacement value.

Third Base
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez – You could make a case for Evan Longoria – heck, even Michael Young, but ARod is sitting in the clubhouse with the most RBI (67) among all Major League third basemen. And he started slow!
NL MVP: David Wright – He has gone ahead and officially proven that last year’s power outage was a total aberration.
AL Goat: Chone Figgins – Apologies to Gordon Beckham, but Figgins went 9th overall among third basemen on draft day. He has rewarded his owners with a .233/.330/.272 mark. Even 23 steals can’t make up for that.
NL Goat: Aramis Ramirez – Taken 8th overall among third basemen on draft day, holy cow Ramirez has been AWFUL! He is only 32 years old, but struggled to a .189/.250/.342 mark – and that was before he started getting injured. He and Aaron Hill are competing hard for bust of the season.
AL WW Stud: Jose Bautista Face it, nobody could have predicted that Bautista would be leading Major League Baseball with 22 HR on July 8! NOBODY! And just about everyone who owns him snagged him off waivers.
NL WW Stud: Scott Rolen – Troy Glaus also deserves some recognition, but Rolen went undrafted according to ESPN and has scored more in my points league than Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds and Adrian Beltre. Not sure many of us were predicting the .296/.362/.560 line he is putting up.

Shortstop
AL MVP: Derek Jeter – He is a little behind his 2009 numbers, but Jeter is pretty much blowing the rest of the AL away (not that hard to do at shortstop) with 8 HR, 40 RBI and a .277/.344/.398 line. His only AL competition would be my WW Stud below…
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez – Hard to make the call for anyone else. Even if a .296 average isn’t up to his usual lofty standards, we will all take the 13 HR and 16 SB.
AL Goat: J.J. Hardy – The move to the AL and a few injuries have derailed his season. Hey, he never really hit for average in Milwaukee, but at least he was driving in runs with the long ball. These days, he boasts a whopping 3 HR and 13 (yeah, 13!) RBI in 149 at-bats this season.
NL Goat: Jimmy Rollins – It’s hard to penalize a guy for being injured, but considering that he was the fourth SS taken off the board and has managed just 102 at-bats this season, I think it’s safe to call him a bust for now. Let’s see if he can salvage something in the second half.
AL WW Stud: Alex Gonzalez – Can you tell that Toronto is having an above-average season? Alex is the third of the Blue Jays’ WW Studs, and a humongous April (7 HR) has powered him to be the fourth-highest scorer among all SS in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Cristian Guzman – Not many choices on the NL side, but Guzman has proven his versatility – rotating between second base and SS to post a .297 average with 38 runs scored. He has outperformed teammate Ian Desmond, who was projected to put up better numbers.

Outfielders
AL MVPs: Josh Hamilton and Carl Crawford – Hamilton has been other-worldly good and is second to only Miguel Cabrera in scoring this season (in points leagues). Crawford has been nearly as devastating and is the only non-specialty player (such as Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn) with more than 25 steals this season. Of the five players with 25 or more steals, Crawford has the same amount of HR as the other 4 combined. Apologies definitely go to Vladimir Guerrero (even though he is basically a DH, he was the 152nd player taken overall on average and has been absolutely dominant this season – wow the Angels made a huge mistake).
NL MVPs: Adam Dunn and Carlos Gonzalez The NL hasn’t been anywhere near as strong as the AL among outfielders. Dunn ranks behind five AL Outfielders. Dunn gets the nod because he has somehow managed to post a .280/.367/.572 line despite an already death-defying 100 strikeouts. Gonzalez (.307/.339/.514) has been solid all season long, and he has 15 HR and 12 SB to his credit. You should see some of the names that were drafted ahead of him – from Curtis Granderson to Shane Victorino to Adam Jones to Raul Ibanez (and the list goes on) – he has outperformed them all.
AL Goats: Jacoby Ellsbury and Grady Sizemore – Another pair of injury casualties, Ellsbury has only managed 44 at-bats this season due to a variety of maladies. Sizemore was horrible LONG BEFORE he had the knee surgery that ended his season. These guys went 6th and 8th overall among all outfielders on draft day – OUCH!
NL Goats: Carlos Lee and Nate McLouth – Not nearly as egregious as the two guys above, still Carlos Lee has fallen off the planet and can’t seem to get his average above .230. McLouth started slow and continued to be slow until the Braves (mercifully) put him on the DL in early June with mysterious “concussion-like symptoms.” Up to that point, he was batting .176 with 14 RBI – that’s a long way from his Pittsburgh glory days.
AL WW Studs: Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson – You know the Tigers must be having a good season if two of their three OF made the WW Stud list! You may not have heard of the rookie Boesch before, but unless you have been living under a rock, you know who he is now. Boesch ranks 24th in RBI among all OF – he also has fewer at-bats than anyone in the top 30 because he was called up on April 24! This is a guy who was completely unowned in April and is 100% owned today – now that’s some good ROI. Jackson may have slumped in late May, but he is again firing on all cylinders and is batting .306 with 50 runs scored and 13 steals.
NL WW Studs: Corey Hart and Jonny Gomes – Full disclosure, I had to stretch the “undrafted” part of my criteria to include Hart, although his average draft position was 232.7 on ESPN (blame the lack of great options in this category, OK?). After an excruciatingly slow start, Hart exploded for 10 HR in the month of May and maintained his good play in June. Gomes wasn’t supposed to have a full-time gig on draft day, but he has jumped on his chance for increased playing time and has responded with a .280/.333/.473 mark in just 264 at-bats this season.

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

The Fantasy League All-Star Teams

As I was putting this together I began to wonder. Do fantasy owners get anything out of their players being voted to All-Star teams? I have to admit I get a sort of cheap thrill from it. It feels like a mild validation, especially when the younger guys on my keeper league teams are voted in. I would love to hear your opinions on this in the comments section below.

The criteria I used to put these together involved more than just a list of the best players. It also considered the players that came at a discount or seemed to arise out of nowhere to have great value in the first half. Let me know if you agree with my choices or if you think I'm a blithering idiot.

American League Fantasy All-Stars

C Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox
C John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays

1B Justin Mourneau, Minnesota Twins
3B Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox
CR Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
SS Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
MI Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals

OF Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
OF Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
OF Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
OF Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers
OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

DH Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers

SP Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
SP Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
SP David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
SP Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

P Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
P Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay Rays

RP Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
RP Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

National League Fantasy All-Stars

C Geovanny Sota, Chicago Cubs
C Miguel Olivo, Colorado Rockies

1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
3B Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds
CR Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants

2B Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks
SS Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
MI Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

OF Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals
OF Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
OF Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

UTL David Wright, New York Mets

SP Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
SP Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
SP Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
SP Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

P Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
P Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs

RP Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
RP Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Time for you to Chime In
Who are your all-stars? Who has been essential to your fantasy team that isn't listed above. Are All-Star posts useless on Fantasy Sites? I wanna hear it from you in the comment section.

Monday, July 05, 2010

Top 5 All-Star Game Snubs

Let's face it, the fans will never help in getting this right, but at least it gives us something to talk and write about. That said, here are my top 5 all-star snubs. Note that this was written before fan voting ended for the "final roster spot," so those guys will be marked with an asterisk, for those of you who want to vote.

1. Jered Weaver -- The AL is loaded with starting pitching this year on the all-star team, but Weaver currently ranks No. 8 among all starting pitchers in the majors in my points-based fantasy league. Why? Because he just about never turns in a poor performance, and oh yeah....he is LEADING THE MAJORS in strikeouts (124)! Not enough to make the All-Star team you say? Well how about a 2.82 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Still not enough? He has 14 quality starts in 17 appearances this season. More you ask? Well, he has 8 wins too for a team in the thick of a division hunt. And the best part? You can't vote for him to make the final roster spot.

2. Heath Bell* -- I am flabbergasted. Taking into account that every team needs a representative on the All-Star team, the powers that be chose Adrian Gonzalez for the Padres. That doesn't seem so bad until you take a look at the next name on this list -- and then you realize that Heath Bell is and has been the best relief pitcher in all of baseball this year. That's right -- the best reliever in baseball, and the numbers back me up. He leads the majors in saves with 23. Among the top 10 players in saves this season, Bell is No. 2 in ERA (behind Rafael Soriano), No. 2 in strikeouts (behind K-Rod), and No. 1 in vulture wins with 4. If you took Bell on the team and eliminated Adrian, it might give you room for...

3. Joey Votto* -- I understand that first base is a completely stacked position this season, but still, Votto is the MVP candidate on a surging Reds squad, and there is no way he should be left off the team. They selected the top 10 RBI men in baseball and left off number 11 (Paul Konerko) and 12 (Votto) -- and Votto has a better batting average (.312) than all but three of the top 10. Let's compare him to Adrian...Votto has more hits, more HR, more RBI, more runs scored and a better batting average. Gonzalez has fewer strikeouts, and they are tied in walks. Enough said.

4. Paul Konerko* -- The AL version of the Votto situation -- the situation, not the player. This was a very tough choice between Konerko and Kevin Youkilis. First base is stacked in the AL too, and there is no case that can be made for Konerko (or Youkilis) going in ahead of Justin Morneau or Miguel Cabrera. That said, Paulie is 11th in the majors in RBI, and has the same amount of HR as Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. And if you think he got snubbed because he can't hit for average, you are wrong there as well, because he is hitting .296. Konerko's edge in HR and RBI numbers gave him the nod over Youkilis for me, and either player's numbers completely trump those of second-team All-Star DH David Ortiz, for example.

5. Jaime Garcia -- Garcia has a better ERA (2.099) than any starting pitcher not named Josh Johnson. He has as many wins as Johnson and fellow All-Stars Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo. This is the penalty of being a rookie these days...just ask Jason Heyward! But seriously, Garcia has been an awesome surprise and a waiver-wire stud this season, and he deserves some recognition. Of his 16 starts this season, 13 of them were quality starts.

Just so you are aware, these are the other guys you can vote in for the final roster spot: Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Delmon Young and Michael Young in the AL; and Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Wagner and Ryan Zimmerman in the NL.

Go ahead and make your case for anyone I didn't include in the comments section!

Saturday, July 03, 2010

NSFW But its a holiday anyway

It is the Fourth of July weekend and no one is watching. So we'll take a brief detour from Fantasy Baseball to witness the greatest movie insults of all time. With a hat tip to Scott of Go To the Story.com

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Orioles Prospect Josh Bell Gets the Call


Third baseman Josh Bell has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk and will be activated by the Orioles in time for Thursday night's game. He will bat seventh and man third base. The Orioles needed a bat with Luke Scott being placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring.

I like Bell a lot as a prospect and believe he will eventually be a productive major league player. However, he was not exactly tearing up Triple-A. He was batting .266 for Norfolk with 10 homers and 44 RBIs in 74 games this season. He should be owned in all AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues with deep rosters should be aware.

This is what I wrote about Bell before the 2010 season started:

Josh Bell became an Oriole via the Los Angeles Dodgers by being the primary return in the George Sherrill trade. There is a strong possibility that he begins the 2010 season as the starting third baseman. Oddly, it seems his development as a switch hitter is going to be a major factor in the decision. Bell is extremely good from the left side of the plate facing right-handed pitchers. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Josh Bell hit .340 with 19 homers in 315 at-bats as a left-handed hitter, and .198 with one homer in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter in 2009. Most reports say his mechanics are fine from both sides of the plate though ESPN’s Jason Grey has said he can “get a little big” swinging from his heels on the right-handed side.

There are those that believe that Bell should abandon switch-hitting and become a left-handed batter. This is the possibility most likely to send Bell to the minors (assuming he has a strong spring and the Orioles do not make a huge move to fill the position). In this scenario, the Orioles would be unlikely to allow Bell to adjust to seeing left-handed pitching from the left side in the majors. Fortunately, those closest to the Orioles believe they are happy with Bell as he is and want to see him continue to switch hit. The belief there (and here) is that Bell can develop enough as a hitter from the right side to be an asset.

Josh Bell just became more dangerous as the season and the post season passed. He was a monster in the AFL. He posted an Isolated Power of .281 (for reference
Alex Rodriguez has a career ISO of .271) after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A for the Orioles. On the season, he slashed .297/.370/.538 with 35 doubles, 2 triples, 20 homeruns. He also received a very favorable projection from theThe Bill James Handbook 2010. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.

Searching for a Pitching Upgrade?

Hi Jon

Looking to improve my pitching and capitalize on what I think is a buy-low / sell-high.

I deal:
Carl Crawford, Billy Butler, Scott Baker and Carlos Marmol

I get:
Justin Upton, Juan Pierre, Dan Haren and Huston Street.

I'm thinking I net even on steals, saves and Ks and am sacrificing RBI and Average for improved pitching ratios and upside potential in both Upton and Haren.

What do you think?
I think we should start by looking at the stats of the players involved.

Carl Crawford - .310/.373/.488, with seven homers, 57 runs, 38 RBI and 27 stolen bases

Crawford seems to be past his shoulder problems. He hit .296/.380/.481 with 12 stolen bases in June. The last seven days he has hit .364/.364/.455 so he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

Billy Butler - .322/.377/.480, with 8 homers, 40 runs, 42 RBI and zero stolen bases

Billy Butler is having a nice season. He might be slower to develop the power we'd like to see out of our first basemen but there is very little to complain about here. For June he is batting .284/.333/.461 and .304/.385/.478 the lat seven days.

Scott Baker - 4.97 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.81 xFIP with six wins, 7.78 K9, 1.78 BB9, and 1.41 HR9

June has not been kind to Scott Baker. But most of the problem as illustrated by his xFIP has been poor luck. With a regression closer to his FIP seeming likely, I think he will have an excellent second half.

Carlos Marmol - 2.27 ERA/2.32 FIP/ 2.84 xFIP with two wins, 14 saves, 16.65 K9, 6.31 BB9 0.25 HR9

Marmol isn't always great in non-save situations. The Cubs losing ways don't help. However, Marmol has provided excellent numbers and a decent save total. He has a pretty firm grip on the closer role at this point.

Now, the return package:

Justin Upton - .269/.355/.472 with 14 homers, 48 runs, 39 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Upton began the season rather slow but has hit .312/.423/.548 with six homers and three stolen bases in June. Crawford has been better than him thus far but if Upton keeps up his current pace he will have been the better player at the end of the season.

Juan Pierre - .249/.317/ .279 with zero homers, 39 runs, 13 RBI and 29 stolen bases

Juan Pierre is not a great hitter. However he has value to fantasy teams because the White Sox let him run wild. Unfortunately he provides zero power and not much run production. I would not expect his numbers to improve but they shouldn't decline much either.

Dan Haren - 4.56 ERA/3.90 FIP/3.43 xFIP with seven wins, 8.90 K9, 1.70 BB9, 1.47 HR9

Haren has not been as bad as Baker but they both have had rotten luck. This is especially surprising in the year of the pitcher. Haren has not been particularly great of late. He may be an upgrade over Baker but not a tremendous one.

Huston Street - his stats are irrelevant at this point

Street has just returned to the Rockies active roster after spending most of the season on the disabled list. I can ignore my code against trading for pitchers recently coming off the disabled list (even ones with shoulder injuries and a lot of bad injury history). However, I still have to point out that despite achieving his first save, manager Jim Tracy is insisting that the closer-by-committee is still in effect. This is not to say he won't re-earn the job, just that he does not yet have it secured.

In Conclusion
Whew...so. Our reader is looking for a pitching upgrade. There is probably one here, assuming Street stays healthy and becomes the closer again. Not an assumption I would make, but it is a fair possibility. It is a risk but one that is (as the reader surmised) at the cost of batting average, probably a few homers and some RBI production. I believe he'll actually gain in steals. But the actual difference in pitching is almost nothing. For perhaps a few points of ERA, you lose quite a bit if nothing changes.

The entire trade seems to hinge on Dan Haren pitching like the top ten pitcher he was expected to be. He has yet to show much of that Haren to this point. And although I don't really believe in labeling players first or second half players, Haren is definitely more of the later. Check out his last three years of stats:

By Day/Month ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
April2.10960017171111.283352692189.203
May3.07640016160111.18838381119103.214
June1.80910017171120.17726241123110.180
July2.771030016161107.199393362399.236
August4.97760017170108.213264602119112.295
September4.38460016161102.212253501127101.298
October7.5001001106.0955117.346

















Pre All-Star2.3427130056563385.02841151003370342.202

















Post All-Star4.3318140044441283.03261451363763279.286

I would save my trade ammo for a more certain upgrade. I think the risk that nothing is gained in the desired areas is too strong in this deal. I would pass and look to acquire a pitcher performing better right now. Perhaps one of these guys:

NameTeamK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9AVGWHIPBABIPLOB%ERAFIPE-FxFIP

Francisco LirianoTwins9.672.463.930.18.2591.26.35571.9 %3.472.201.273.01
Cliff LeeMariners7.340.4715.600.47.2350.92.28971.6 %2.452.340.103.31
Josh JohnsonMarlins8.922.253.960.33.2020.96.27081.9 %1.832.47-0.643.17
Roy HalladayPhillies7.751.186.590.69.2571.11.31580.3 %2.422.85-0.433.04
Tim LincecumGiants10.163.652.790.52.2311.25.31975.9 %3.132.880.253.22
Jered WeaverAngels10.452.124.920.97.2331.09.31175.3 %3.012.930.083.22
Yovani GallardoBrewers9.913.802.610.50.2231.23.30479.2 %2.562.97-0.413.46
Jon LesterRed Sox9.343.452.710.42.2051.11.27776.5 %2.863.02-0.163.44
Ubaldo JimenezRockies8.123.192.550.40.1991.05.25586.2 %1.833.08-1.243.68
Adam WainwrightCardinals8.602.413.560.68.2131.03.26981.3 %2.343.11-0.773.28
Any other opinions on this deal out there? Feel free to leave your questions, comments or even complaints in the comment section.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Filling Chase Utley's Shoes

I received the following e-mail this morning:
5X5 H2H league (OBP instead of Avg). My free agent choices are M.Tejada, Jose Lopez, Beckham, Pennington, Peralta, or S. Rodriguez. Obviously Utley is my MI (behind Kinsler/Rollins).

Whaddya think?
Big Mike
Tough decision. At least you have a mix of possibilities. You have the fading veteran in Tejada. The underachieving veteran in Lopez. The struggling phenom in Beckham. The slap-hitting speedster in Pennington, the disappointing Peralta, and the underutilized youngster in Sean Rodriguez.

Part of the decision has to be based on how your team is doing and what your category needs are.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - Tejada no longer provides much power. He hits for a fairly empty average thanks to being part of the underachieving Orioles lineup. In your league he is nearly worthless with just a .313 OBP.

Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Lopez probably has more upside than Tejada at this point but his stats are even worse. He has a slash line of .244/.269/.337 and is showing zero power. Definitely pass.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - Beckham is the most promising of the players on this list. He was expected to be a force in Chicago but has slumped through most of the season. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his rookie season. However, his contact rates are still pretty good and there is definitely a degree of bad luck. Unfortunately he does not walk much. There have been some signs of life this week, he hit his first homer in quite some time and seems to be coming around. If you can afford to embrace some risk this might be a good place to go.

Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics - Pennington is a mediocre hitter but he steals bases and walks enough to justify his reputation as a leadoff hitter. He has a slash of .247/.323/.359 and like the others has displayed little power. But mediocre is better than lousy and that makes him a real possibility.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Peralta showed some promise a few years ago but seemed to lose it when he was moved off shortstop. Perhaps his defensive position is like Sampson's hair. Still, he has more powers than the others have shown (though nothing to go crazy about). He's a possibility if we're desperate for any homeruns we can get.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays - Rodriguez hasn't been that great overall but has been hot in June. Hitting .292 with four home runs and three stolen bases as of the 26th. His potential is second only to Beckham on this list. I have a hunch he'd have been better playing everyday than he is sharing a job, but that's just a hunch. He's the hot hand.

So here are your options:

Shoot for the Stars - Gordon Beckham who has shown signs of life lately.

Take the stolen bases and the best OBP you can get - Cliff Pennington, probably the safest bet.

Desperate for Power - Jhonny Peralta, hope he gets back what he lost in the second half.

Play the hot hand - Sean Rodriguez, hope he keeps it up.

I tend to be an embrace risk type of fantasy owner and would grab Beckham. Play it safe types should probably grab Pennington. If you believe whoever you pick up is short term, Rodriguez is probably the one.

Good luck.

Hot Prospects: Mike Minor and Aroldis Chapman

NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.

From Jason Grey
"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."
They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.
"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."

Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Remember Mark Prior? Don't Call It a Comeback.

Mark Prior was once the man. He was a stud starter for the Chicago Cubs and helped propel them to one of their best seasons in decades. He was coveted by fantasy owners everywhere. But Dusty Baker was his manager, thus his arm was destined to fall off, and it pretty much did.
From Fox Sports:
Right-handed pitcher Mark Prior, who came out of USC with a hype along the lines of Stephen Strasburg, is still trying to piece his injury-plagued career back together.

Prior, 29, will work out for major league clubs at USC on Wednesday. Prior, who has not pitched in the big leagues since going 1-6 in nine games with the Cubs in 2006, has been working with USC pitching coach Tom House, the former big-league pitching coach who has worked with Prior since his high school days in San Diego.

Most major league teams are expected to have a scout in attendance.
Prior was the second player selected in the 2001 draft, Minnesota opting for high school catcher Joe Mauer, and then Twins general manager Terry Ryan being criticized at the time for passing on a pitcher that many claimed was ready to step directly into a big-league rotation.

Prior did receive a then-record $10.5 million signing bonus, and appeared to validate the Cubs decision in 2003, his first full big-league season, when he was 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. Prior, however, developed shoulder problems that required surgery after that season, and has made only 57 big league starts since.

— Tracy Ringolsby
Prior seems a long way from being an effective pitcher for fantasy owners. However, you never know. Stranger things have happened than a former stud pitcher regaining some semblance of effectiveness again. He is worth watching but don't act too rashly.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Can Brennan Boesch Keep Hitting Like Pujols?

Who the hell is Brennan Boesch? Because of his incredible production the Detroit Tigers and a few fantasy owners have much better lineups. But for most fans he came out of nowhere and analysts have been saying his lucky streak just can't last.



Fantasy owners tend to be a numbers oriented lot. As the art of sabermetrics has become more popular a large segment of this crowd has developed an almost snobbish dismissal of players that do not fit their criteria for players of interest. Brennan 'Hollywood' Boesch was such a player for most of his minor league career. In 2009 he caught the attention of some Tigers fans with a 28-homer season for Double-A Erie. Baseball America rated him as the best power prospect in the EL though they left him off their top-20 prospect list for the circuit; they did rate him Detroit's #25 prospect. The power had been projected but not realized until then. But no one doubts the power potential of the 6'5" slugger...

The name of the game is simple for Boesch, as he is a power hitter through and through. Most scouts tossed around plus-plus or 70 power for Boesch, though one scout felt his power may warrant an 80 grade. Boesch can hit balls out to any part of any park on the planet, and his power is absolutely prodigious to the pull side. He gets the bat to the zone quickly and he rips the barrel through the hitting zone with incredibly muscular upper and lower arms.

For all his power, Boesch has some very significant kryptonite. Most scouts see significant holes in his swing, and a susceptibility to breaking balls in nearly any part of the zone. He lacks the pitch recognition skills to consistently work counts, and he has a below average hit tool as a result. There will always be a lot of swing and miss in his game, and it is a matter of whether his power will be enough to make up for what will likely be a lot of strikeouts and a very low on-base percentage.

Boesch is an average runner. His jumps in the outfield are fringy at best, and most scouts I spoke with see at best, an average defender. He can make most of the plays in right field, and he has an above-average arm with decent carry.

His makeup rates as a positive in his favor, and he does a solid job of keeping his mind focused on the present and not letting poor plays in the field or poor at-bats, impact the task at hand on the field. He is unlikely to be a star, but his power is difficult to ignore, and he will get chances to nail down a corner outfield spot if he continues to blast balls out of the park.
What most analysts did not like about Boesch was his extremely aggressive style that resulted in very few walks and low on-base percentages. A scout explained to Nick Underhill, a writer for TigsTown.com how he felt watching Boesch play during the 2009 season:
“How do I fill this out? Every time I start to fill it out I don’t feel good about it. He hits the ball hard, plays decent defense, but he’s too wild at the plate. Way too wild, this is the hardest report I’ve had to file in a while.”
At the University of California, where Boesch played three seasons, Boesch had these batting lines -- .284/.365/.541 (7BB, 3 HBP) in 74 at-bats, .355/.436/.567 (26BB, 6 HBP) in 217 at-bats, and .313/.372/.505 (20BB, 2HBP) in 214 at-bats. This is shown to demonstrate that hitting for average (with high BABIPs) and showing at least some discipline at the plate is not entirely unprecedented. Boesch was considered a potential first round pick before the 2006 season. He fell because of a swing that some scouts considered stiff and not ideal for play with a wooden bat, and some bad reports on his defense in the outfield. However, it is worth posting his college stats as evidence that hitting for high averages and walking ( a 9.2 percent walk rate at the University of California) is not entirely unprecedented.

According to the few reports to be found, including a report from John Sickels, Boesch's problems in the minors were the result of that same stiff swing. But it is obvious that part of his problem has also been a lack of patience. Curious that he seems to have found his solution by becoming ultra aggressive and swinging at almost every pitch. In an article for FanGraphs.com, Joe Pawlikowski pointed out that as of May 11th, 2010, Boesch was swinging at 66.2 percent [of pitches], more than 20 percentage points above league average. Obviously he was doing good things with a lot of those pitches.

Boesch's swing percentage is down to (a still very high) 58.2 percent. His O-swing percentage (over 50 percent at the time of Joe Pawlikowski's article) is now down to (again, still very high) 42.6 percent. He has also made slightly better than average contact in all those swings. If nothing else, Boesch seems headed in the right direction as he continues to pound the ball as June ends.

Make no mistake, Boesch had a very luck influenced BABIP (over .500 at one point in May) his first month in the major leagues. But in June his walk rate doubled along with his power. Put another way, after just two walks in his first 50 PA, he has 14 in his next 166 PA, while this will not put him in the class of patient sluggers like Jason Giambi or Adam Dunn, it does make his projections for the rest of the season look considerably better. The increase in walks in conjunction with his increased power makes sense. Various reports, easily found on the internet, will demonstrate how an increase in power almost always leads to more walks as pitchers adjust.

Conclusions
As of this writing Brennan Boesch has 198 at-bats and a batting line of .338/.389/.621 with 12 homeruns, 26 runs, 43 RBI, and two stolen bases. He has a BABIP of .374, a .283 ISO, and a .432wOBA. His numbers look a lot like Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers. Of batters with at least 190 at-bats he ranks fifth in wOBA just behind Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Hamilton, and Kevin Youkilis and slightly ahead of Robinson Cano, Paul Konerko and Joey Votto. He's been very good.

Starting with the bad news, it seems obvious that his batting average will creep down. He has numbers that will be very difficult to maintain (seemingly impossible some might say) with his peripherals. Even noting the recent improvements, Boesch still swings at too many pitches, especially outside of the strike zone. Though his aggression is at least somewhat responsible for his success, he must improve his pitch recognition and selection if he hopes to have long term success. He needs to take more walks, hitting for power will get him part of the way. If he learns to lay off most pitches out of the strike zone, he will increase his OBA dramatically.

With his swing nice and loosened, Boesch has become a very good contact hitter and I believe we can call that one of his skills. He has fantastic power that scouts have often rated a 70 on the 20-80 scale and in at least one case he received an 80. He is a hard worker who is constantly working to become a better player. He is extremely confident, bordering on overconfidence, which is an asset as long as he also remains coachable. This is a combination that leads me to believe that Boesch is capable of hitting for good batting averages (.270-plus) with excellent power on a regular basis.

Fantasy owners with Boesch on their rosters should hold on to him. Selling high is not a bad idea, but I believe that he will have continuing value in keeper leagues. Those owners should also prepare for the massive slumps to which hitters this aggressive frequently fall victim. When he does slow down, resist the urge to dump him if he can be placed in reserve. For the balance of the season I would expect the power numbers to continue and for his batting average to continue to gradually decline. He can not be considered the next Pujols at this point, he just doesn't have the skills. However, a solid power hitter with decent (not amazing) batting averages is already a virtual certainty.

For more on Brennan Boesch:

http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2699

http://firstinning.com/players/Brennan-Boesch-a/

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=29378

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=914&position=OF

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brennan-Boesch.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boescbr01.shtml

http://tigers.scout.com/2/958464.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9796

Sunday, June 27, 2010

5 Slumps that are about to End

Also known as the buy-low list, here are five players who are either slumping right now or have been slumping all season, and the reasons why their slumps (hopefully) won't last. Some players are just second-half guys, for whatever reason.

1. Mark Teixeira -- If you have played fantasy baseball at all in the past few years, you know what Teix is capable of doing after the all-star break (which is coming up on July 12). In 2009, he hit .313 after the break and raised both his on-base and slugging percentages significantly. In 2008, the first- and second-half differences were even more dramatic -- he went from batting .271 to .366; slugged nearly 200 points higher (.656 vs. 484) and raised his OBP from .373 to .464. Now is the time to make a play for Teix -- and you are hoping his owner can't take another day of his .230 average so far this season.

2. Derrek Lee -- Lee had an enormous second half last season; and while he is only batting .233 right now (not nearly as good as the .280 first half he posted last season), he posted a .336 average with a .656 slug and .436 OBP after the break in 2009. His current BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is just .275 -- well below his career mark of .321. So, has Lee just been a bit unlucky this season, or has his career turned the downhill corner? My guess is the former. Buy.

3. Mark Reynolds -- Reynolds has improved in the second half in two of the last three seasons, and his career second-half batting average is 10 points higher than first-half. He is another player whose BABIP this season is way below his career mark (currently he is at .271, and his career number is .333). Give his second-half improvement in past years, I would expect his luck to change.

4. Jorge Cantu -- After a red-hot start to the season, Cantu has been plugging along at a snail's pace in the RBI and batting average department. He is batting .210 in June with just 9 RBIs -- just for comparison's sake, he had a .311 average and 23 RBI in April. And yeah, his slugging has fallen dramatically in that span, from .567 at the end of April to the .432 it stands at today. The good news is that Cantu improved slightly in the second half in 2009, and I think a shake-up a the helm in Florida is going to spur him on for the second half this year. This one is more of a gut-feeling pick than the others that are based more in numbers; however, Cantu's BABIP is 21 points below his career average -- so there's that.

5. Adam Lind -- It is much more difficult to predict players that haven't been around all that long. His career splits indicate that he is a much better second-half player, but most of that was determined by the enormous season he posted last year. So what is Lind, who has a .205 BA, just 9 HR and 34 RBI doing wrong? Well first of all, he just may have been pressing -- really hard -- in the first half, trying to reproduce the magic of last season. Toronto has tried to ease the pressure by moving Lind down in the lineup (this week), and he responded by hitting his first homer since May. Cito Gaston says Lind and fellow struggling teammate Aaron Hill (who was moved to sixth in the order) will stay down there until they get hot. His BABIP is .244 so far as opposed to the .323 he had last season -- there must be some middle ground to be had here. It might be risky, but it is probably a cheap enough chance to take.

Honorable Mention: Matt Wieters -- I can't use the numbers to back me up, since he is only in his second season, but his second half last year was awesome. He is only hitting .203 in June, so his slump is for real -- let's see if his second half last year was too.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Bragging Rights Granted...

I received this e-mail this morning:
10 Team H2H League 25 Mixed


C - Brian McCann
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - Dustin Pedroia
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - Jimmy Rollins
OF - Matt Holliday/Andre Ethier/Michael Bourn
UTIL - Troy Glaus/Nyjer Morgan
BN - Shane Victorino/Chris Coghlan/Aubrey Huff

SP - Gallarado,Wainwright,Cain
RP - Capps,Feliz,Wagner
P - Latos/Corpas/King Felix
BN - Anibal Sanchez,Ted Lilly,Brett Cecil
DL - Edinson Volquez
He did not ask any questions so I just started evaluating his team. Reproduced below.

Hey Jay,

Well, you didn't actually ask me a question so I'll assume you're just interested in a general impression of your team.

Brian McCann has been okay but hardly the dominating force at catcher we were hoping. He has shown some signs lately and I think he will have a big second half.

Prince Fielder has been shockingly mediocre. He has swung at a few more pitches out of the strikezone than he typically has but I'm not certain this is anything other than bad luck. He also is hitting fewer homers per flyball. I would hang on to him and hope things get back to normal.

Dustin Pedroia
is awesome. If the rest of the team had not started so slowly his numbers would be even better. He's a potential MVP for both your team and the American League.

Adrian Beltre
is having a very good season. His best in a few years. You won't do much better short of the David Wright, Evan Longoria class of player.

Jimmy Rollins has struggled to stay healthy and that is most of the reason for his lack of production but otherwise he's having a great season.

Matt Holliday/Andre Ethier/Michael Bourn - Holliday is heating up as he typically does in the second half. You could ask for more from Andre Ethier but it would be a selfish and ungrateful thing to do because he's having a great season. Bourn is not repeating his 2009 season bt the runs and stolen bases are there and that's why yo draft a player like him. He'd be much better on a real major league team (not the Astros).

Troy Glaus/Nyjer Morgan - Glaus has been one of the most productive first baseman. He has lead the league in RBI. Nyjer Morgan has been disappointing to those expecting a repeat. But he still steals bases and unless someone better becomes available he has a place on your roster.

Shane Victorino/Chris Coghlan/Aubrey Huff
- This is a great bench, it is versatile and productive in several different areas. Victorino hits for power and steals bases, he's like a poor man's Matt Kemp most years, this year he is Matt Kemp. Coghlan started slowly but has come on of late. I think he'll be better next season when he's playing a more natural position. Huff has been underrated all season and worthy of a place on any fantasy team.

Gallarado,Wainwright,Cain
- Three aces on solid teams. Nothing to complain about here.

Capps,Feliz,Wagner - You could complain about Capps a bit for his high ratios but why bother with a team like this? Feliz has been one of the best closers in the AL.

Latos/Corpas/King Felix - Who were you drafting against? You need to be in a tougher league.

Anibal Sanchez,Ted Lilly,Brett Cecil - a nice group of extra arms.

Edinson Volquez - He should be solid next year, I probably wouldn't hold him on most teams but you shouldn't be feeling much pressure.

So, you're winning right? If you aren't, I hate to see what the other guy's team has. Even in a ten team leage you should be doing very well.

Anyone in a deeper league have a dominating roster like this?

Friday, June 25, 2010

Carlos Zambrano Suspended Indefinitely

Carlos Zambrano, once the unquestioned ace of the Chicago Cubs has been suspended indefinitely. Zambrano has been suspended largely because he can not stop blaming everyone else for his declining skills. And the Cubs are tired of it.



"It becomes a bit of a tired act," said general manager Jim Hendry to ESPN after the Cubs' 6-0 loss to the White Sox on Friday afternoon.

Apparently Zambrano was angry that Derrek Lee missed Juan Pierre's double hit down the first base line. Just check out the above video to see Zambrano's complete meltdown.

For Fantasy owners this is bad news. I have a feeling we will not see Zambrano pitch again until he joins another team. I think the Cubs will have a difficult time getting anything of value for him but they will also be reluctant to just let him go. If you can stash him I would do so but do not let the thought of Zambrano's triumphant return prevent you from picking a more promising player from your waiver or free agent list.

I wonder if the Cubs will be inspired to put Andrew Cashner to work as a starting pitcher. What do you think?

Know When to Hold 'Em - To Trade or Not To Trade

I received an e-mail from a frequent reader this morning. He has been in regular contact of late while he attempts to strengthen his team via trade. The trade he was being offered was a fair one. It was a pretty good outfielder and a pretty good starter for his closer. On the surface this was a good deal for him because dollar for dollar he would win the deal and the names involved probably made it look even better. I advised him to pass on the trade.

There are lots of owners out there obsessed with the idea of winning trades and fair deals. This is not the goal of a good fantasy trade. The object of a trade in fantasy leagues should be to bring yor team closer to winning the championship. In the example above the reader in question had a strong outfield already. He admits that the pretty good outfielder he received would be sitting on his bench. From what I know of his roster he was looking at the starter as a short term fill-in for a couple of better starters presently on the disabled list with short term injuries. For this he was thinking of trading his only true closer.

When making trades owners should hold out for or design trades that will result in a climb up the standings. Worry less about perception and fairness and concentrate on your league standings. I usually make projections of the rest of the season for any players I am thinking of acquiring and calculate how much the trade will help me in the standings.

What is your process when making deals?

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

10 Guys Available in 80% (or more) of ESPN Leagues that are Worth a Look


1. Ike Davis (20.0 percent owned) – First base is one of the deepest positions in a fantasy lineup this season, which is probably why there are four first basemen on this list. The interesting thing is that 3 of them are rookies. Davis is one of those rookies, and he is batting .286 with 2 HR and 1 SB over the last 15 games. He has David Wright protecting him in the lineup, and as a matter of fact, I watched Wright get intentionally walked to load the bases for Davis twice in the last week. He may strike out too much, but the RBI opportunities will continue to abound for the former Sun Devil. What may be most amazing is that Davis (a lefty) is hitting .328 vs. left-handed pitching this season. Davis is definitely worth a flier in redraft leagues; and he should not be available in keeper leagues.

2. Justin Smoak (19.7) – Our second rookie first baseman has been killing the ball recently. He is third in the AL in RBI with 20 in the month of June, trailing only teammate Josh Hamilton (27 RBI) and Torii Hunter (21). One nice thing about Smoak that sets him apart from most rookies is the fact that he does not strike out much (only 10 K in June). Now that Nelson Cruz has returned from injury, Smoak will have to move down a spot in the order; however, that shouldn’t deter you from nabbing him. Like Davis, Smoak should not be available in any keeper leagues – if he is, stop reading this now and go pick him up.

3. Jeff Keppinger (16.8) – I wanted to include at least one middle infielder on this list, and Keppinger edged out Ian Desmond (another rookie) – mostly because Desmond has fallen into a big slump the last two weeks. He may not wow you with his power numbers, but Keppinger is hitting a steady .280 on the season with a .328 OBP. The biggest plus on Keppinger is his eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS, and he has the potential to contribute to your run totals batting in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee.

4. Gaby Sanchez (11.1) – The Marlins fired their manager, assistant manager and hitting coach on Wednesday; however, this should not negatively impact Sanchez, who has been on fire in June. For the month, the rookie is hitting .356, with a .407 OBP and a .575 SLG. He has 3 HR and 2 SB to go with those gaudy stats. Sanchez is really coming into his own – he has 11 hits in his last 24 ABs – and he has the streaking Chris Coghlan batting in front of him and Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu batting behind him. Expect more of the same in July.

5. AJ Pierzynski (8.9) – Don’t look now, but the joke of a lineup that is the Chicago White Sox is starting to hit. Pierzynski has brought his average up from .219 to .252 in just the last 10 games, and he has 2 HR in that timeframe. After hitting .169 in April and .241 in May, A.J. is hitting .362 in June – and he has gone 3-for-4 in each of the last two games. He’s certainly a better option right now than much more widely owned catchers, such as Ryan Doumit (.162 AVG in his last 15 games) and Rod Barajas (.133 over the last 15).

6. Kris Medlen (8.5) – The first pitcher on the list (there are very few quality starting pitchers at 20-percent owned or less), Medlen nailed down a spot in the Braves’ starting rotation thanks to Jair Jurrjens’ injury, and he will keep it thanks to Kenshin Kawakami’s total ineffectiveness. Since joining the rotation, Medlen has made 7 starts, with 5 of them quality starts. He has three wins and no losses in that timeframe. Impressively, Medlen has posted just 9 walks vs. 29 strikeouts as a starter, and like I said, he will be keeping the job for the foreseeable future. Definitely a great keeper candidate in deep leagues.

7. Evan Meek (8.0) – The 27-year-old right hander has outperformed every pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates, including the two guys in front of him on the closing depth chart, Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan (although Hanrahan has been quite solid). Even if Meek never gets another save this season, his numbers as a middle reliever can definitely have a positive impact on your fantasy team. In 40 innings this season, Meek has a miniscule 0.68 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He may not be Carlos Marmol when it comes to the K, but Meek’s strikeout rate is encouraging (36 Ks in 40 innings – with only 9 walks), his opponent’s batting average of .170 is terrific, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 23 (that’s 12 straight scoreless appearances). If you have a roster spot available, Meek can do wonders for your pitching percentages.

8. Luke Gregerson (5.6) – Gregerson is another middle relief example of a player that can help balance out your pitching percentages. He strikes out more batters than Meek – Gregerson has 43 Ks in 35.2 IP – and oh yeah, he only has THREE walks this season. That’s good for a 0.48 WHIP! If your league counts holds (Gregerson has 17), there is no way he should be available. That said, Luke is definitely another player who helps a whole lot more than he hurts, and if you have roster space available, it’s probably a no-brainer.

9. Hisanori Takahashi (4.6) – The Japanese import has benefitted from a shoulder injury to John Maine, which moved him into the rotation since May 21. Since then, Takahashi has 3 wins with two 6-inning shutouts of the Bronx Bombers (although one was a no-decision). With news that Maine may be shutting it down for good, Takahashi will continue to be the main beneficiary. The only red flag seems to be his dominance over AL teams – 2 of his three wins and 3 of his 4 quality starts came against the AL squads. He is a Met, after all.

10. Russell Branyan (3.1) – Being injured to start the season is a great way to find yourself on this list. Take Russell Branyan – he missed the first 12 games of the year and then struggled through much of May trying to play catch-up. Well, in June Branyan has caught up, batting .279 for the month with 4 HR and an .851 OPS. His resurgence cost the vaunted Matt LaPorta any playing time, and he was subsequently sent to the minors. The fact that Branyan is 3.1-percent owned means he is likely available to you – and while you might not plug him into the lineup tomorrow, he may prove to be a valuable trading chip as the rest of the fantasy world wakes up to what he is doing.

So…have I forgotten someone? Totally disagree? That’s cool...leave a comment!
--Pauly

New Contributor

Hello readers of Advanced Fantasy Baseball!

My name is Pauly, and Jon recently asked me to start contributing to Advanced Fantasy Baseball. After looking over the site, it looks like my posts will be a perfect fit.

Jon found me through my blog, Pauly's Fantasy Hoops and Baseball Corner (I know, not the greatest blog title ever). If you are interested in seeing some of my previous writings, please feel free to check it out (and leave comments). A couple of recent posts you may find interesting are:
The All-Team Killers Infield and Killing us in the Outfield.

I have been playing fantasy baseball for more than 15 years. I am active in two leagues -- one is a 14-team H2H yearly redraft league; and the other is a 13-team roto keeper league. Right now I stand in 6th place in the H2H and second place in the roto keeper.

I also have a sports writing background. Personally, my favorite (and home town) team is the two-time world champion Florida Marlins. I watch just about every Marlins game, but thanks to the MLB.TV package, I am able to scout players on every team, every night (well, most nights anyway).

My first post is coming right up -- I plan to contribute some quick, easy-to-read, yet informative lists dealing with fantasy baseball. I can't wait to read your comments.

--Pauly

Monday, June 21, 2010

Jarrett Hoffpauir: Toronto's Third Baseman

UPDATE: The Toronto Blue Jays have designated Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. I'm not certain why this happened after he seemed to take the demotion in the right spirit. This could be something that his agent instigated but that is purely guesswork. I imagine we'll hear more on this in the next few days.

From the Seattle PI:
Toronto, ON (Sports Network) - The Toronto Blue Jays have designated third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. Encarnacion, 27, was batting .200 with nine home runs and 22 RBI in 37 games this season. He was sidelined from April 15 through May 17 because of a sore right shoulder and missed 30 games during that stretch. Toronto acquired Encarnacion from Cincinnati in a four-player deal at the trade deadline last year. He has a career .257 average with 88 home runs and 308 RBI.
The Toronto Blue Jays sent Edwin Encarnacion to the minors on Sunday. After several years in the majors it must be a major blow to his ego. However disappointed Encarnacion may be, this demotion may ultimately be the best thing for him. He is still young and still holds the potential to become an excellent power-hitting third baseman.

To replace Encarnacion on the 25-man roster, the Blue Jays have recalled 27-year old Jarrett Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir grew up in the St. Louis Cardinals' system. He was fairly successful in a short stint with the major league last year. He hit .250/.438/.417 with one homer in 16 plate appearances. His career minor league line is .288/.366/.427 in 2,509 at-bats. Those are not superstar numbers but they show competence with the bat.

Older players like Hoffpauir typically need to hit well immediately to extend their opportunities. In this case it is more likely to be bad defense than a weak bat that keeps Hoffpauir on the bench. However, in AL-only leagues I think Hoffpauir represents a good risk. He should get to play a few games right away. If he can play decent defense, manager Cito Gaston will have no reason to sit him in favor of the slumping Jose Bautista.