Tuesday, October 12, 2010

BBA Connie Mack Award Nominations (Fantasy Chapter)

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance gives out annual awards to the consensus Manager of the Year (The Connie Mack Award), Rookie of the Year (Willie Mays Award), Reliever of the Year (The Goose Gossage Award), Pitcher of the Year (The Walter Johnson Award), and the Most Valuable Player (The Stan Musial Award). Each Chapter in the BBA has two ballots to vote for each award. I am proud to present the Fantasy Chapter's Nominations:

The American League Connie Mack Award Nominations:

1. Ron Washington, Texas Rangers

2. Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins

3. Cito Gaston, Toronto Blue Jays

The National League Connie Mack Award Nominations:

1. Dusty Baker, Cincinnati Reds

2. Bud Black, San Diego Padres

3. Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants

Please check out these articles for more thoughts on how the Fantasy Chapter votes were formed:

http://bleachergm.blogspot.com/2010/10/connie-mack-award-manager-of-year.html

http://thesportinghippeaux.blogspot.com/2010/10/bba-ballot-nl-connie-mack-award.html

http://cosfba.blogspot.com/2010/10/2010-fantasy-baseball-awards-10092010.html

Friday, October 08, 2010

The Ten Step, Non-Wussy Guide to Re-Building Your Fantasy Team

The season is over.

You are probably ready to spend the month of October lazing on the couch, drinking Jack 'n Cokes and studying the Belmont Sportsbook but mostly forgetting your disappointing fantasy season. That is not a bad plan but you may want to slot in some time for building your 2011 Championship team.

I have stated on more than one occasion that I think re-building is for the Pittsburgh Pirates and other wussies. You should play to win. Your fantasy team does not require a five-year, two-year or even one-year re-building plan. All it really takes is a willingness to work on your keepers during the off-season and devoting more energy than your rivals to having a great draft.

The deeper your fantasy league the more difficult it is to recover from a down season. However it can be done without sacrificing your chance at winning in any given season. If you are committed to winning, following these steps will keep you in the money year after year without ever re-building. But be aware, this is not a one-day plan it is an off-season plan. It should be enacted over the course of the entire off-season.
  1. Investigate What Went Wrong (and Right) - You can not successfully move on from a disappointing season without calculating where it is you went wrong. While doing this it is important not to get too caught up in the player names. Instead examine your process and the types of players you acquired in the last draft, your waiver and FAAB Transactions and your trades. Was it your process or the result of the process that fell apart. If you drafted 17 sleepers than you did not have a good process. Was your team hit hard by injuries? If so it may have just been bad luck. However, if your roster was filled with the traditionally injury prone and others coming off bad injuries it might be your process that needs work. Also look at what you did right and try to remember what you were thinking when you made those decisions. Was it just luck? Take your time with this. Spend a week or two just looking at your team and thinking about how you put it together.
  2. Inventory and Value Your Resources - Now that you are more aware of what happened and why you need to value what you potentially own going into next season. Rotowire.com is a great place to get dollar values for free. It is a bit pricey but BaseballHQ.com is my favorite source. If money is an issue they frequently have free trials and special discounts. But in addition to collecting early dollar values you also want to make an accounting of draft picks, minor leaguers you may own and any other potential assets to your team building. Again, you should take your time. Look up every player on your roster. Measure their strengths and weaknesses while looking for trends that may portend increased value in the near future.
  3. Contrast and Compare - Measuring your keepers and assets against those of the other teams in your league is essential. You need to know how you stack up against the competition, without this knowledge you'll be just flailing in the dark when it comes to building your championship team. Remember you are building a team meant to beat other teams not just putting together a roster of favorites. Do not skip the teams at the bottom of the standings, these are the teams that probably made dump deals to put them in contention in 2011 - your primary competition in some cases.
  4. List Your Needs - Now that you are more intimately familiar with both your own team and those of your rivals you are in a much better position to make a list of your team's needs. It is impossible to go into your draft with a completed roster so you will obviously not be able to fill every need. However, some needs are more glaring than others. Perhaps your team is hitter heavy and you could use a few quality arms going into the draft. Or perhaps you need to acquire some speed to make up ground on your steals hoarding league mates. You cannot put together a winning strategy or have a truly great draft without knowing your needs going into it. Take your time and do it right. Do quick but careful projections for all of your players (don't skip anyone) and measure the results against the season totals of the top three teams. If you have this done before the end of the World Series you will be in excellent shape.
  5. Look for Potentially Undervalued Talents - With your list of needs in hand go through the rosters of every other team in the league. Look for undervalued players that may fit your needs. These are players that can be acquired for very little, such as a late draft pick, a scrub minor leaguer or over-priced veteran or anything extra you have to give up. The players you want are players with mediocre or worse numbers but with upside. It could be a young player that had a difficult season before adjusting at the end. It could be an at-value veteran player that lost time to injuries or was traded to a team that used him off the bench. Keep in mind the ideas and plans of the MLB teams. The closer you are to their thinking the easier this will be. The key is having reason to believe they will see their value rebound in 2011 and that they can be cheaply acquired. Make a list of these players and the teams holding their rights.
  6. Check Your Timing and Then Go Value Shopping - If you have reached this point in the offseason and you still do not know if the New York Yankees will beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series (or if they'll even advance past the Minnesota Twins) you need to slow down. Relax, you have some time to kill. Watch some football, bet on baseball, do some drinking, these are all great pastimes in moderation. When the Baseball Writers have finished announcing their awards and the Hot Stove is heating up this will be your moment to strike. Before making a single offers, rank your list of undervalued players from best to least and starting at the top begin making offers. Be casual about it, you don't want to stress out the owners that went into off-season mode as soon as the calender flipped to October.
  7. Re-Value Your Roster - When the Hot Stove starts to cool, the NFL Playoffs are at the Superbowl Party planning stages, Fantasy Magazines are popping up in the 7-11 and the Greek Grocery on the corner, it is time to re-value your roster. What you should notice is that the values and projections you noted in October and November have changed as MLB teams re-formed. Projections and dollar values should be a cinch to find. It is probably better to understand the consensus opinion on your players than to follow any individual set that you did not create yourself. Any excess picks or players that you can not fit on your keeper list should be considered trade bait.
  8. Trade Quantity for Quality (or Vice Versa) - If you feel you have a strong roster of players now is the time to start trading your excess of riches to upgrade to the very best keepers. For example, you might have a roster with two A keepers, seven B keepers and three C keepers. In this case you would probably want to package one or two B's with a C or two and try to acquire another A-level keeper. However if you have two A-level keepers and not much else you should try to do the reverse. Trade an A for two B's and two C's if possible. The object is to build as much talent into your roster as possible. Those A-level keepers may be great but if you go into the draft with nothing else you will have a difficult time putting a top level roster together in most leagues.
  9. Re-List Your Needs and Look at Options - Hopefully you have been able to make a great trade or two and your keeper list is strong. Either way you need to look at your roster and make an honest assessment. List the needs that are priorities in the draft. And do not just say you need speed or power. Calculate how many steals or homers or RBI or Saves you need to place in the top three or better in every category (I always aim to win every category but that makes it a bit more risky). Compare your needs to the players available in the draft and use projected values to slot them into your roster. Try to have three or four options for every roster slot. I spend a ton of time on this and it is worth it. You end up with a very solid idea of the talent available and how much of it you can fit onto your team. I'll be writing more about this process in the weeks to come.
  10. Study Up, Make Lists, Pack Up and Have a Good Draft - In the week or two before your draft, when you are done trading and your keeper list is submitted, you have nothing to do but make lists. Make as many or as few lists as you are comfortable using at the draft. List your options for each roster slot. Try different salary combinations until you hit on your favorite and most doable strategy. Be prepared with a few alternatives. Don't do any serious drinking in the days leading up to your draft. Make a list of everything you will need at the draft and pack those items. At the draft relax and follow your plan and winning should come easily.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Baseball Bloggers Alliance Announces New Award Names

Baseball Bloggers Alliance Announces New Award Names

Changes reflect appreciation for history of the game

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) recently announced the renaming of their annual postseason awards to comply with the wishes of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), thereby avoiding confusion between the two organizations. This allowed the BBA an opportunity to recognize some of the legendary greats of the game, naming their highest honors after them.

“Earlier in the year, the BBA reached an agreement with former Yankee reliever Goose Gossage to name our newest award, recognizing the best relief pitcher in each league, after him,” said Daniel Shoptaw, founder and president of the Alliance. “It only seemed fitting, then, that we rename the rest of our awards after other legends of the game.”

The five awards are given to a player in each league: The Connie Mack Award, given to the top manager; the Willie Mays Award, for the top rookie; the Goose Gossage award, mentioned above; the Walter Johnson Award, which would be analogous to the BBWAA’s Cy Young Award; and the Stan Musial Award, awarded to the most valuable player in each league.

According to Shoptaw, “These names are synonymous with quality, achievement, and dedication. These names have not only stood the test of time, but have been strengthened by it.”

The schedule for the announcement of these awards is as follows:
Connie Mack Award: October 14
Willie Mays Award: October 18
Goose Gossage Award: October 21
Walter Johnson Award: October 25
Stan Musial Award: October 28
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was founded in 2009 and numbers 222 blogs covering all major league teams and various other aspects of baseball, as well as blogs and sites that are affiliated as Friends of the BBA. The official website of the BBA is located at www.baseballbloggersalliance.com. The BBA can be found on Twitter by the handle @baseballblogs and by the hashmark #bbba. Members of the BBA may be heard at Blog Talk Radio every Tuesday night with their call-in show, BBA Baseball Talk, which may also be downloaded as a podcast from iTunes.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Computer Problems

Apologies for those checking in the last couple of weeks. My computer crapped out on me, a Fan Error, and it took me a while to get up and running again. Unfortunately, I don't have one of those fantasy internet phones. I'm also between jobs again so no work computers to borrow. My brother the IT guy just finished installing the new fan less than an hour ago. I'll get to the e-mails and comments as soon as possible. Please feel free to e-mail me again if you're still in need of help.

Friday, September 03, 2010

Mark Prior Signs with Texas Rangers

This according to the latest Newberg Report:
According to at least one local report, the Rangers have signed righthander Mark Prior to a minor league contract for 2011. The 29-year-old ex-ace hasn’t pitched in a major or minor league game since 2006. He’d last suited up for the Orange County Flyers of the independent Golden Baseball League.

The Rangers have announced that Prior will report to Oklahoma City, where he could pitch in relief right away. The RedHawks lead their division by two games with four to play.
I went to the official Orange County Flyers website to see how he had done in the GBL. Apparently he was appropriately overwhelming to the indie-league batters. He was working under former major league pitcher, Paul Abbott.
Prior worked with Abbott, an 11-year MLB veteran in his first year as Flyers manager, during his time with Orange County on developing the proper tools to come out of the bullpen. Last week, Prior pitched on back-to-back days for the first time in his professional career. On Tuesday, he threw a scoreless 8th inning for Orange County with two strikeouts against Na Koa Ikaika Maui, the team the Flyers will face in the first round of the playoffs starting next week. Prior signed with Orange County on August 3, throwing a 1-2-3 inning of relief in his Flyers debut against the Victoria Seals. He struck out five consecutive batters in his next outing. In his 11 innings of work, Prior allowed one unearned run on five hits with five walks and 22 strikeouts with opponents batting .143 against him.

“It’s a great day for Mark Prior, getting back into affiliated baseball,” said Abbott. “He came here to face competitive baseball and see if his arm would hold up, and he passed that initial test. Now he’s ready for the next step. He was a true professional while he was here. He was a Flyer, he was one of the guys, and he’s going to be missed.”
If he can stay healthy it looks like Mark prior may actually make a comeback. Good for him. This is someone fantasy owners should definitely keep an eye on.

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Difference Makers

I've been away from the keyboard lately but I haven't lost interest in my fantasy teams. In fact in my 12 team H2H keeper, my squad (Donkey Punch!) has come on strong in recent weeks and has clawed its way back into contention with only four days left in the regular season. In what's the tightest finish that I've seen in this league, 3 1/2 games separate the top five teams (top six make the playoffs) and a half game currently separating the top three! With my transactions nearly maxed out and numerous players (Nick Swisher, Angel Pagan and Jim Thome) suffering from day-to-day injuries, I have to chose my moves very wisely. The regular season winner gets a prize and the top two get a bye for the first round of the playoffs but I can't leave myself without options for the playoffs, so I'll have to stand pat this week.

With that said, fantasy players know that campaigns are not won in the early rounds of a draft. In fact, sometimes the season is won from the waiver wires, as the season winds down to its end. So who are some of the position players who could be difference makers as we head down the stretch?

Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker has been one of the hottest hitters in the game lately. After five inauspicious seasons in the minors, it seems like the former first round pick seems to finally putting it all together at the age of 24. In the last two weeks, Walker has been absolutely raking, going 20/54 with 4 HR/9R/15RBI/.370 BA/.384 OBP. With a BABIP of .366 in his 342 PA with the big club, it's not likely that those numbers will last, but fantasy owners may as well enjoy the ride while it lasts. Owned in only 28% of Yahoo leagues, there's no reason why Walker shouldn't be helping more teams make their playoff push.

Freddy Sanchez, 2B, San Francisco Giants


You know what you're going to get out of a healthy Freddy Sanchez - batting average. While the veteran second baseman hasn't disappointed lately in the 17% of Yahoo leagues where he's rostered, he's also scored a lot of runs for the Giants, in their quest to overcome the faltering Padres out West. Sanchez has been slapping balls all over the place in the last two weeks, banging out a 11 R/1 HR/6 RBI/.481 BA/.491 OBP line. Of course he doesn't hit for much pop and is made of glass, but steady Freddy can be the difference between you winning or losing in batting average this week.

Roger Bernadina, OF, Washington Nationals

With the Nationals losing Josh Willingham for the season and Nyjer Morgan facing a suspension for hulking out last night, Roger Bernadina's sure to see every day reps in the D.C. outfield. The 26 year old has enjoyed surprising success in his first significant Major League playing time, showing solid power to go along with his base-stealing prowess. He was sitting against lefties, but I think he'll see steadier time from here on out. I'll refer back to a piece I wrote in June about Bernadina and add that he's definitely rosterable in 12-team mixed leagues now, in spite of the 96% of Yahoo leagues where he's not rostered. Over the last two weeks he's been the 27th most valuable player in my 6x6 format with 11 R/3 HR/ 9 RBI/ 4 SB/.268 BA/.311 OBP. He won't hit for great average but he should continue to deliver plenty of slam and legs at a time when cheap power/speed combinations are hard to come by.

Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics

Daric Barton has always been know for his patience at the plate. Now it seems like the Oakland Athletics first baseman has suddenly decided to get the bat off of his shoulders. Coming into action today, Barton has swung a hot stick, bashing out a line of 11 R/3 HR/7 RBI/2 SB/.425 BA/.586 OBP in the last two weeks. Of course his hot hitting could cool off at any time, but Barton gets on base and if that's what you need, he could be an asset if you're thin at corner infield. As hot as he's been, Barton is only owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues so there's a good chance he's around to lend a hand.

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Martin Prado: Best Hitter in the National League?

I found something odd inside last week's Baseball America. On page 15 they printed the results of their survey of major league managers of the best tools in baseball. Most of it was fairly predictable. The best National League baserunners were Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen. The most exciting players in the American League were Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Ichiro Suzuki. And the best hitters in the National League were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Martin Prado. Say what, now? Martin Prado?

It's true that Martin Prado has been extremely good over the last couple of years. First as a utility player and finally as the full-time second baseman. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com had good things to say about him during his Trade Value series of articles in which Prado ranked at number 47.
The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.
By wOBA, Prado comes in an impressive seventh among second basemen this season with an extremely solid .368 score. He ranks 22nd in wOBA in the National League, which is impressive for a player that was not expected to become an offensive force.

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At the time of this posting, Prado held a slash of .317/.360/.488 with 15 homeruns, 89 runs scored, and 58 RBI in 498 at-bats. Although his walk rate is unimpressive at just 6.4 percent, he has shown incredible patience at the plate. He swings at far fewer pitchers than most major league hitters both in and out of the strike zone. He also makes far greater contact. He is definitely a skilled hitter. The key to his transformation seems to be his steadily increasing power. The last three seasons have seen his ISO go from .140 to .158 to .171 this season.

Although most leagues do not bother with defense, I thought it would be interesting to see how he has been with the glove. The answer is pretty good overall. He's been excellent at third base just passing at second base but showing some improvement. I think this helps us call him a pretty good third baseman and a very good second baseman.

Unfortunately, the major league managers seem to have elevated him a bit past his true skills as a hitter. He is definitely a player worth watching for fantasy purposes. At 27-years old with experience we may see him take another step up and into the true tier of best hitters in the National League. But for now I would still place players like Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez in a class above him.

How has Martin Prado helped in your quests for gold. Are you ready to label him one of the best hitters in the National League? Let's hear about it in the comments section.