Saturday, February 19, 2011

When the Noise Becomes Interesting...



You do not have to search far to find a fantasy baseball analyst warning against trusting the noise generated during Spring Training. "He's in the best shape of his life" and "I'm definitely going to steal 40 bases this season" are the phrases that make us drool but are probably best ignored. It is about ignoring the subjective and concentrating on the facts. Nothing wrong with that. But once in a while the objective case needs the subjective ideas to form a complete picture.

LINK
According an arrest affidavit, a deputy spotted a car [Miguel] Cabrera was driving, smoking on the side of Okeechobee Road in Ft. Pierce, about 100 miles southeast of the Tigers' spring-training base in Lakeland. Cabrera had an odor of alcohol on his breath, his eyes were bloodshot and watery, and his speech was heavily slurred, according to the report.

In the arrest affidavit, deputies said Cabrera repeated, “Do you know who I am? You don’t know anything about my problems.” Cabrera then picked up a bottle of James Buchanan’s Scotch whiskey and started drinking, according to the report.
Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. He is not willing to admit that at this point. The Tigers believed that they had nipped this problem in the bud after the 2009 incident. A stern talking to and a few apologies were never going to be enough to truly solve this problem. How do I know he has a problem with alcohol? If you get in trouble with the police because of your drinking, even if it is only once in every 365 nights you go drinking, you have a problem. But if you're paying attention you'll note that this is me applying my thoughts to to the facts about Cabrera. We are not supposed to do this.

If the Detroit Tigers think that a week of "rehab" is enough to address Cabrera's problems, they aren't taking his alcoholism seriously. The Tigers are now saying that he may make his Spring debut on Monday. 'Nuff said.

Now does that mean that Miguel Cabrera shouldn't be your first round pick? Tough to say. I have been criticized in the past for suggesting that I wouldn't draft Cabrera because of his untreated alcohol problems. In addition, I don't think he takes his position as the leader of the Tigers offense seriously. I don't believe he gives much consideration to conditioning. None of that makes him a bad person or even a bad player but in my opinion he is a serious risk to dash a fantasy team's championship hopes. It's 50/50, in the first round I want better odds.


LINK
At his long-awaited physical exam and official weigh-in Friday, [Pablo] Sandoval tipped the scales at 240 pounds, according to Ethan Banning of Triple Threat Performance, which coordinated his offseason conditioning regimen.

Sandoval weighed 278 pounds at the end of last season. He also reduced his body fat measurement from 30 percent to 19 percent, Banning said.

"That's not Mr. Universe, but it's a long way from where he was," Banning said.

Banning estimated that the 5-foot-11 Sandoval gained nearly seven pounds of muscle on the highly disciplined nutrition and training plan, so his total fat loss was closer to 45 pounds.
It is tough not to love Pablo Sandoval. Not only does he obviously love playing baseball, he looks like a lot of us. So when we hear that Kung-Fu Panda is in the best shape of his life, we cheer for him and then we ignore it. It won't improve his plate discipline after all.

I'm certain you'll let me know if any of the following subjective thoughts on Pablo Sandoval and his weight-loss/transformation stop making sense:
  1. His agility and ability to play defense is likely to improve, at least to the level it was in 2009. In case you missed it, Sandoval was benched last year because of his defense, not his bat. So, he'll get more at-bats.
  2. His endurance should improve. He should be stronger later in games and should require fewer late-inning substitutions. So, he'll get more at-bats.
  3. His confidence is soaring. As we know, half of baseball is 90 percent mental.
What is the most important thing a player needs to have for offensive success? That's right, tons of at-bats. Sandoval is an excellent contact hitter who has good power (maybe even better now after training with Barry Bonds' boys) who looks like he'll get a ton of bats. Not only do I think Sandoval being in the best shape of his life is significant, I think it is the primary reason we can expect a big bounce-back season.

From the Process Report:
Bautista had a fantastic season and would have qualified for free agency at season’s end. Instead, the Jays essentially replace Vernon Wells’ dollars with a lone commitment and an equally risky one at that. There are no early opt-out or buyout opportunities involved here. Even if you just look at when Bautista got playing time and ignore that he couldn’t break into the lineup while playing for some extraordinarily poor teams, here’s what you’ll find:

Season (PA)/TAv/wOBA/OPS
2006 (469): .261/.326/.755
2007 (614): .269/.331/.753
2008 (424): .256/.311/.718
2009 (404): .272/.339/.757
2010 (683): .331/.422/.995

Bautista is an above average offensive player most years, but not by much. He appears to be a negative on defense, although his flexibility is a nice asset, and this is his 30-year-old season –leaving little doubt he will decline over the length of the deal. A replication of 2010 is highly unlikely, so being an above average player for the duration is the perfect world outcome. More likely? He earns some surplus on the front side and the Jays are ready to get rid of the deal by 2015.

When Jose Bautista signed his big new contract this week it was trashed by many of the smartest writers around. They look at the stats and see that Bautista's 2010 season sticks out like a sore thumb. It must be a fluke! How can a player go from slightly above average to suddenly great?

You won't always find the answer in the stats. Instead you need to look closer. Jose Bautista may have struggled to find a full-time role while with the Pittsburgh Pirates but think about that. The Pirates? They haven't won meaningful games in a decade and haven't done it two straight seasons in two decades. They are routinely trashed for making lousy personnel decisions. Until very recently they've struggled to develop major league talent despite having top picks in every draft of the last 20 years and certainly lacked the ability to coach them up. Even with the Pirates a closer look would have revealed a slightly flawed player with good power. The Blue Jays saw a decent player they could turn into a better one (the Red Sox did too, just sayin').

You can check out this detailed explanation by Frankie Piliere for the specifics. But the mechanical changes are very real and they matter. If he can maintain them there is no reason he can't remain at a new level of effectiveness. This isn't noise, these are facts.

I like that the Blue Jays signed Jose Bautista. Yes, it is a bit of a gamble but guys that can smack 50 homers a season are especially rare in the post-steroid era. If he has a strong follow-up season he would have gotten at least that and more. He can hit, hit for power and field two positions very well. This is not the next Vernon Wells contract.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Spring Training Points of Interest

And we're back...

Isn't Spring Training freakin' awesome? I love it. This is the time of year when I rarely watch any show that isn't on the MLB Network. So many rumors and stories to follow and many of them are fantasy relevant.

Michael Young is beginning to look like a future Florida Marlin. It seems odd to think that the Marlins would take on the salary of Young, and they are not likely to take on all of it, but they have become the favorites to acquire the Rangers' captain. The fish do have a huge hole at third base this year. They also have a ton of welfare money they've been sitting on. Young's numbers in Florida's pitching friendly stadium probably wouldn't be quite as good but he'd become a major part of a potentially awesome young lineup. If you aren't drooling over Mike Stanton's potential this season, you have not been paying attention.

Here are five other stories that should interest you:

The Top 50 Fantasy Sports Blogs

I would have linked to this article anyway, but being included on the list flattered and amazed me. I'll be checking out many of these sites myself. I wish I'd known about some of the basketball blogs a few months ago.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols


Some fans are starting to call Albert Pujols greedy for his contract demands but I don't think so. Most fantasy baseball participants understand that Pujols is the best everyday player in the game. You would be hard pressed to find any negatives on Pujols. This isn't Jayson Werth getting an inflated contract, this is the best player in the game looking to get appropriate compensation.

What Position will Jose Bautista Claim?


I've already covered what I think of Jose Bautista's ability to repeat his amazing power show in 2011. But will it happen at third base or in the outfield? The outfield is surprisingly shallow in deeper leagues where everyone is looking for five starters. Third base is pretty deep these days especially if you include some of the great prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Moustakas. I vote for the outfield.

Can A.J. Burnett get it back?

I think so. Burnett has bounced back before so he can do it again. Plus, it is being kept quiet but apparently he dealt with a load of personal problems last season that threw off his focus. A.J. is also a pitcher that needs to be clicking with his catcher and that has been tough for him with the Yankees. I think Russell Martin can help here if he is healthy and effective.

Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau Comebacks in the Works

This may shock you. I'm am far more confident in the return of Joe Nathan to dominating closer than I am Justin Morneau to top notch first baseman. Nathan is already tossing the ball 90 miles-per-hour and swears he'll be ready to start the season. The Twins may want to hedge that bet but Nathan looks good and talks a great game. Justin Morneau has concussion problems that the thing about head injuries is that they don't just go away. In fact each concussion makes the next one ore likely. Scary thought.

I have an article on late round starting pitchers that has been in the works for a few weeks almost ready to go and the annual sleepers article will be posted very soon as well. Join the site by clicking the panel in the right side bar, go ahead, everyone is doing it.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

OOTP12 and a chance to win an I-pod Touch

When I first discovered Out Of the Park it ruined an entire week of plans. You know why? Because it is an awesome game. If you like baseball and playing GM, and as a fantasy owner, I know you do. This game gives you some of what you can't get from more basic versions of fantasy baseball.

You get entire organizations to control. Not just 25-man rosters but an entire minor league system. You have scouts who report back to you. You hire the manager and his staff. You sign free agents, you control the draft. Other GM's (automated if you play alone, your friends if you form a league) will e-mail you with trade offers and comments. Seriously, I spent nearly every free minute of a week after getting this game messing with the many options of this game. You will too.

I'm getting nothing for sharing this news, I just like the game a lot.


Here is more from the creators:

Pre-Order from January 25th through January 31st:

Only $29.99 - save $10!
Get OOTP 12 two days before public release
The opportunity to win an iPod Touch + iOOTP *

Lineup Improvements in OOTP 12

PC Gamer called OOTP 11 "a no-doubt, walk-off home run no-brainer to become a part of your game collection," and OOTP 12 is no different. Our All-Star lineup of features gets better every year, and we've again improved many of them during this off-season. We're not done yet, so stay tuned to future newsletters.

2011 Major League Rosters

Here's a treat: the best roster set we've ever produced, from the big leagues' top stars to the guys making their debuts in rookie leagues. All players are individually rated with updated statistics and realistic contract data. Last year's top draft picks are included too. Could Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, with the veteran leadership of newly-acquired All-Star Jayson Werth, help propel the Washington Nationals to the top of the National League East in coming seasons?

Revamped Financial System

The Philadelphia Phillies shook the baseball world this winter when they signed top-flight free agent pitcher Cliff Lee, despite expectations that he would opt for the highest bidder. Now you can do the same with OOTP's improved player contract negotiations, which are more realistic and fun. You can even try to talk your owner into expanding the available budget, letting you squeeze in another All-Star contract. Don't forget to stay on top of the latest free agent signings and other news in the new off-season center, and keep your finger on the pulse of your team's finances with an improved view.

Contract possibilities are now more realistic, including vesting options, buyouts, minor league split contracts, signing bonuses and more performance bonus options. You can even now include remaining contract payments as an option in trades with AI-controlled GMs.

Online Leagues

We're proud to support Official OOTP Online Leagues with a full-featured interface inside OOTP 12. With just one click, you can join a team, and creating a league is just as easy. Commissioners can make their leagues public and advertise open teams, with the ability to accept or deny requests from would-be GMs.

Official OOTP Online Leagues offer several key advantages:

  • League files are patches rather than full-size files, saving plenty of up- and download time.
  • Reports can be saved in MySQL databases, increasing their upload speed.
  • Forget about FTP: team data exports and imports work through the database. That results in improved compatibility and security for the league web site server.
  • An export tracker.
  • The promise of more great features to come, including online drafts and trades.

Greater Immersion and Realism

Historical leagues benefit from improved AI and real life transactions and as-played lineups as optional features. Thanks to OOTP's sophisticated game engine, you'll be able to enjoy the most realistic historical simulation results possible. How would the 1927 Yankees fare against their 1961 counterparts?

In addition, storylines have been expanded, and there are new ways to interact with your players. News presentations have also been revamped, making you feel like you're part of the hectic 24-hour "better stay on top of this" news cycle that dominates today's sports reporting.

In-Game and Core Engine Changes

Like a manager constantly seeking ways to get the most out of his lineup, we're always tinkering under OOTP's hood. Here's what you can look forward to this year:

  • Recoded parts of the in-game AI, making it the most challenging ever in an OOTP game.
  • Improved in-game sound, adding better quality sound files and more variation.
  • Improved player evaluation AI, resulting in more realistic AI roster moves.
  • Recoded parts of the trading AI.
  • Recoded parts of the scouting engine.
  • Improved injury and recovery system.
  • Added WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a statistic.
  • Added a playoff roster for more realistic team transactions.
  • Greatly enhanced the world database structure, resulting in more realistic fictional league and player creation.
  • Added a simulation module, allowing you to match up two teams from the same league for a set number of games and see the simulation results. This is great for research purposes or just for toying around. For example, how would the 1927 Yankees fare against the 2004 Red Sox?

But that's not all - the feature list is not final yet and will include even more great additions before the game is released. Stay tuned.

The home team has taken their positions in the field and the first batter is approaching home plate. What will happen next? Find out in OOTP 12. Pre-order your copy today!

The OOTP Developments Team

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Pitcher Rankings - Three Year FIP

I thought it would be interesting to see the best pitchers over the last three years according to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Not too many surprises.


Name W L IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% ERA FIP
Tim Lincecum 49 22 664.2 10.25 3.09 0.53 0.299 0.77 0.47 2.83 2.69
Cliff Lee 48 25 667.1 7.23 1.28 0.61 0.302 0.75 0.43 2.98 2.85
Roy Halladay 58 31 735.2 7.74 1.27 0.78 0.293 0.79 0.52 2.67 3.03
Zack Greinke 39 32 651.2 8.37 2.24 0.69 0.306 0.73 0.43 3.25 3.05
Adam Wainwright 50 22 595.1 7.8 2.36 0.67 0.283 0.79 0.50 2.68 3.16
CC Sabathia 57 25 720.2 8.06 2.5 0.71 0.285 0.75 0.47 3.07 3.27
Justin Verlander 48 35 665.1 8.81 2.99 0.7 0.3 0.70 0.39 3.84 3.27
Felix Hernandez 41 28 689 8.15 2.89 0.64 0.283 0.77 0.53 2.69 3.28
Jon Lester 50 23 621.2 8.72 3.08 0.69 0.3 0.76 0.49 3.29 3.31
Mike Mussina 20 9 200.1 6.74 1.39 0.76 0.321 0.73 0.49 3.37 3.32
Dan Haren 42 30 680.1 8.53 1.75 1.02 0.295 0.75 0.42 3.47 3.33
Tommy Hanson 21 15 330.1 7.87 2.78 0.65 0.282 0.75 0.41 3.16 3.38
Ubaldo Jimenez 46 32 638.1 8.23 3.95 0.48 0.283 0.74 0.52 3.43 3.42
Chad Billingsley 40 32 588.2 8.42 3.59 0.6 0.302 0.73 0.48 3.58 3.42
Hiroki Kuroda 28 30 497 6.56 2.06 0.72 0.28 0.68 0.51 3.6 3.46
Colby Lewis 12 13 201 8.78 2.91 0.94 0.275 0.72 0.38 3.72 3.55
Wandy Rodriguez 34 31 538 8.4 2.93 0.85 0.304 0.74 0.45 3.36 3.55
Johan Santana 40 25 600 7.44 2.46 0.89 0.275 0.80 0.37 2.85 3.59
Roy Oswalt 38 29 601.2 7.42 2.15 0.91 0.279 0.75 0.47 3.44 3.6
Jered Weaver 40 30 612 8.22 2.56 1.01 0.283 0.74 0.33 3.65 3.64
Ricky Nolasco 42 26 555 8.56 1.93 1.22 0.299 0.69 0.39 4.31 3.66
Cole Hamels 36 32 629.2 8.22 2.24 1.11 0.288 0.77 0.42 3.46 3.7
Derek Lowe 45 33 599.1 5.92 2.54 0.72 0.305 0.71 0.58 3.95 3.72
Josh Beckett 35 22 514.1 8.52 2.34 1.1 0.311 0.70 0.45 4.39 3.72
Ryan Dempster 43 27 622 8.2 3.28 0.88 0.292 0.74 0.48 3.49 3.76
Jair Jurrjens 34 26 519.2 6.53 3.24 0.68 0.287 0.74 0.46 3.45 3.76
Matt Cain 35 33 658.2 7.3 3.07 0.86 0.27 0.77 0.36 3.27 3.81
Joel Pineiro 32 26 515 4.86 1.68 0.84 0.295 0.69 0.55 4.07 3.86
Javier Vazquez 37 36 585 8.6 2.62 1.18 0.291 0.72 0.39 4.17 3.86
Carlos Zambrano 34 19 487.2 7.36 4.04 0.65 0.288 0.74 0.45 3.71 3.88
Andy Pettitte 39 25 527.2 6.94 2.93 0.89 0.309 0.71 0.47 4.09 3.9
John Danks 40 31 608.1 6.95 2.96 0.9 0.278 0.75 0.44 3.61 3.91
Scott Baker 38 22 542.2 7.48 2.21 1.18 0.293 0.74 0.34 4.11 3.95
Ricky Romero 27 18 388 7.31 3.73 0.77 0.309 0.73 0.55 3.99 3.95
Jonathan Sanchez 30 33 514.2 9.43 4.53 0.94 0.281 0.73 0.41 4.04 4.01

Monday, January 24, 2011

Can Ubaldo Jimenez Repeat?

Ubaldo Jimenez was a Fantasy Baseball Stud in 2010. But more than a few analysts have questioned his ability to repeat his performance in 2011. What do you think?





Wednesday, January 19, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals


At first glance, it doesn't appear that Jeff Francis has ever been a desired fantasy starter. Before you look at his stats you know that he's spent his entire major league career pitching at Coor Field. Coors Field, the longtime bane of fantasy owners everywhere when it comes to pitching, has made many decent pitchers look abominable. Francis is included in that class but he can't blame it all on the thin air.

Francis, at least in the majors, has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Not terrible rates, but nothing to make an ambitious fantasy owner take notice. His HR9 has been all over the place from awesome to abysmal. However he does induce a decent number of groundballs. With skills like these it is pretty easy to understand why with so many teams looking for starters (teams with cash to spend like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Cubs) Francis landed on the Kansas City Royals.

But as most of us understand these days, a pitcher's skills are not the entire story. There are park factors, team defense, and luck that factor into things.

Park Factors

Even in the era of the humidor, Coors Field is not exactly a friendly place for pitchers. According to StatCorner.com's Park Factors, Coors Field had the following influence in 2010:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K: 87 / 90
GB:102 / 103
BB:103 / 89
OF: 91 / 93
1B:103 / 104
LD:129 / 128
2B:104 / 120
IF: 95 / 90
3B:121 / 188
HBP: 72 / 99
HR:116 / 117
wOBA:108 / 112

If you were wondering why the Rockies have had such bad luck signing free agent pitchers, here is your first clue. Unless a guy is desperate to line with pockets with greenbacks, free agent pitchers will go elsewhere. Here are the numbers for the new place - Kauffman Stadium:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K: 88 / 92
GB:106 / 101
BB:104 / 91
OF:100 / 108
1B:104 / 102
LD:105 / 106
2B:117 / 106
IF: 85 / 93
3B:122 / 126
HBP:115 / 82
HR: 73 / 85
wOBA:104 / 100

What you really want to look at is that homerun factor. At Coors Field 116/117 and in KC, 73/85. The rest is a lot closer than you might think, but a 30 percent swing in homerun rate could do wonders for any pitcher. A plus for Jeff Francis and his potential fantasy value.

Team Defense

Both the Royals and Rockies were bad defensive teams last year. In fact, the Rockies and Royals rate as the worst and second worst defensive team by UZR/150 the last three seasons. The Rockies at -5.8 and the Royals at -5.7 were basically just as bad. Fortunately, the Royals have reason to believe they have significantly improved their overall defense. Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar should all be significant improvements defensively. Very unscientifically, I'm going to say that the Royals should be a good defensive team in 2011. Another plus for Francis and his fantasy value.

Luck

I hate the very idea of luck. Probably because I have a severe lack of it, at least the good kind. It is also almost impossible to measure in any accurate way. francis has a career BABIP of .314 but he's been over that mark four out of six seasons (he missed the 2009 season due to injury). That sounds like bad luck, the horrid defense factors into that as well. His LOB percentage is all over the place but it has mostly been below 70 percent, which looks like bad luck. Inconsistent bullpens and lousy managers don't help, but it was at 64.5 percent in 2010 which looks like real bad luck. With so much bad luck in Jeff's history we can only hope the change of scenery brings brings better luck to Francis and his fantasy owners.
Conclusion

Jeff Francis is not a great pitcher but he is a decent one. Before his injury he proved to be fairly durable. He pitched at near a league average level (that may be a bit generous) in one of the worst pitching environments the world has ever known. In an improved pitching environment he should has a pretty good chance at a career best season. One that fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should like seeing on their stat sheets, and mixed leaguers may want to gamble on in the late rounds or dollar days.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Brad Emaus 2B (or utility) New York Mets

The New York Mets and many of their fans have been bitching about Luis Castillo and his unsuitability to be their starting second baseman almost since he arrived in New York. It's probably a little unreasonable in intensity... Fortunately, for those New Yorkers and the Mets, the pain is almost over. The new Mets management has options to replace Castillo and it appears that they will. Castillo is in the final season of a four year deal and is scheduled to earn $6 million. He could very well collect it playing for another team. Sandy Alderson appears to be the type of General Manager that will acknowledge a mistake and cut a player rather than continually try to prove he was right.

Reese Havens is the future at the position if all goes well but for now it appears to be a competition between four players: Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner and the incumbent Luis Castillo.

Daniel Murphy

Last year the Mets the Mets saw Daniel Murphy as an infield option but injury took him out early in the season and he was not a factor in 2010. But Murphy is now healthy and expected to compete for the job of starting second baseman. To prepare for the 2011 season Murphy signed up for the Dominican Winter League. He batted .320/.395/.515 with four homers and five steals (only caught once) in 103 at-bats. A small sample to be sure, but an encouraging one.

Murphy is a natural third baseman but the Mets believe he can handle second base defensively, or at least that he'll be better in the infield than the outfield. From a scouting report in the Boston Globe:
"He’s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,’’ said the scout, "but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion for them at a position they need help at."
Murphy has the patience to draw walks. He is also a good contact hitter but swings at a few too many pitches out of the strike zone, which limits his batting average potential. He has decent power for a middle infielder and the speed and ability to steal 15-20 bases in full-time at-bats. Murphy is probably the favorite to win the position based on his talent and major league experience. He's likely to be on the major league roster even if he fails to win the starting job. Murphy seems idealy suited for an injury prone Mets team. He can play several positions and will not embarrass himself with the bat. Those skills are best utilized from the bench.

Justin Turner

The Mets picked up Justin Turner on waivers from the Baltimore Orioles where he was a fan favorite but was apparently unappreciated by the team's management. In his brief Major league appearances Turner has failed to hit effectively. Turner can play all over the infield including short stop and the Mets called him up when Jose Reyes needed a mid-summer break. But despite his major league woes, turner had a very strong season in Triple-A for the Mets, batting .333/.390/.516 with 11 homers and five steals (caught three times) in 312 at-bats. He followed his strong Triple-A stint with a solid performance in the Dominican Winter League where he slashed .318/.382/.438 with a homer in 80 at-bats.

Turner has always shown the ability to hit for a strong batting average. This is based mostly on his strong contact skills, and some ability to draw walks. He has a little pop, nothing to write home about, and doesn't steal bases. His value is in hitting for average and defensive versatility. He is also a very strong hitter against left-handed pitchers. Although he is seemingly popular wherever he goes, Turner may be the unlikeliest candidate for the job based on a lack of power and speed but he has his supporters.

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo was a decent player with the Florida Marlins who brought him up and with the Minnesota Twins during his short stint with them. He has never shown any power. His fanalytic value has always been tied to his batting average and stolen bases. His speed on the bases has gradually evaporated and the batting average comes and goes. For the Mets, Castillo has been bad and worse, two out of three seasons. He still draws a decent number of walks but his average has been so bad that his on-base percentages have been mediocre. The decline in speed has also killed his defense, which has been terrible for the Mets. Even if Castillo had a great Spring Training he would have a hard time winning the faith of the Mets management.

Brad Emaus

The Mets used their first Rule V draft pick on natural second baseman Brad Emaus, so he must stay on the major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Toronto Blue Jays. It is difficult to say how determined the Mets are to have Emaus on the 25-man roster. One the one hand, they did draft him and pay the Blue Jays cash to take him off their hands. On the other hand, the Mets (even in their current state) have the money to blow just to take a look at a player.

My hunch says that the Mets are serious about Emaus. Sandy Alderson, is serious about team building and making maximum use of all his resources. His assistant Paul Depodesta is a stats guy and has to love a player like Emaus for reasons that will soon become apparent to you. Another assistant J.P. Ricciardi ran the Blue Jays when Emaus was drafted and likely knows him better than most. I think Emaus will stick around. The question is in what role.

Here's what Emaus had to say about being picked to Baseball America:
“My agent (ACES’ Mike Zimmerman) told me this week that there was a 50-50 chance I’d be taken in the Rule 5, and right now I’m just very ecstatic, excited to be given another chance by the Mets,” Emaus said via phone from the Dominican. Asked to give Mets fans a scouting report, Emaus said, “I’m just a blue-collar guy, a solid guy who has to know the game, has to have some (baseball IQ) because I don’t have great tools. I’m not flashy but I bring my best every day and go out trying to find an edge.”
Emaus spent the 2010 season playing at two levels for the Toronto Blue Jays. In Double-A, he slashed .272/.402/.434 with five homers and five steals in 170 at-bats. After being promoted to Triple-A, he hit .298/.395/.495 with ten homers and eight stolen bases. A nice season that he followed up in the Dominican Winter League (noticing a theme?) where he slashed .268/.345/.449 with one homer and two steals in 127 at-bats.

Emaus has a fantastic eye and a ton of patience at the plate. He has solid power, which is mostly double at this point but there is still room for that to turn to homer power. Right now he probably would hit 10-15 homers in a full season of at-bats with an upside of 20. He has decent not great speed but is a skilled baserunner who will steal 10-15 bases per season. He should hit for a strong batting average based on his eye and very good contact skills. His upside looks a lot like Daniel Murphy's but he also throws in a solid glove at second base. He is sure-handed but with just average range according to scouting reports.

Conclusions

Murphy is clearly the favorite to win the job but Emaus is a dark horse with a ton of support in upper management. Murphy has the most major league experience and his versatility makes him a decent bench option. Emaus has a better glove at second base and gets on base at a tremendous rate, he would make a very good number two hitter behind Jose Reyes and in front of the powerful middle of the Mets lineup.

Luis Castillo is so reviled that it is almost impossible for him to make the team. It is probably more likely that he is cut than he becomes the starter. Justin Turner has some flash but lacks the backing to win the job short of an outstanding spring. There is a case to be made for platooning Turner with Murphy but that is kinda hard to predict.

More Mets News

From MLB.com:
Johan Santana visited Mets medical staff in New York this week and has been cleared to begin a rehab program "which will have him throwing before the start of Spring Training," according to a team spokesman. Santana, 31, had been sidelined since undergoing September surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. His original rehab schedule called for him to begin playing catch in January, leading the spokesman to say, "It's about where we're supposed to be."

Though there is no concrete timetable for his return, the Mets do not expect him back until around mid-season.
Check It Out!

Our friend Jason Collette has moved on to Baseball Prospectus (FanBall.com is leaving us soon) and the link leads to his first piece on a few underrated pitchers that fantasy owners should consider. Check it out!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/6/1920032/the-mets-options-at-second-base

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/12/02/watching-justin-turner-live-in-december/

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2011/01/12/comparison-brad-emaus-justin-turner/

http://risingapple.com/2010/05/26/mets-claim-justin-turner-from-orioles/