The 2012 Fantasy Baseball Index Expert Poll

I blatantly stole these questions from the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Index magazine's expert poll. Join in the fun by providing your own answers to one, some or all of the questions in the commenting section.

Late round player who will provide early rounds value

AL- Henderson Alvarez

NL-Chris Heisey

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners

AL- Matt Moore

NL- Stephen Strasburg

Closer most likely to lose his job

AL- Jose Valverde

NL- Rafael Betancourt (not because he lacks skills but because the Rockies are already grooming his replacement).

Best value pick at closer

AL- Joakim Soria

NL- Ryan Madson

Rookie of the Year

AL- Yu Darvish

NL- Nolan Arenado

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season

AL - Adam Dunn's lack of power

NL- Allen Craig

2012 Fantasy MVP

AL- Josh Hamilton

NL- Matt Kemp

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

Spend it but within reason. I see Yu Darvish as a potential front line pitcher, a top ten type of guy. I see his downside as still slightly better than league average. In an AL-only I'd be willing to bid into the low to mid 20's.

Darvish's situation is nothing like Dice-K's. Matsuzaka came to the Red Sox and rather than be happy with what they had, they tried to change him into their version of what he should be. They made him change his workout routines, reduced his use of his change-up, and then didn't support him publicly when he failed to be an ace. In addition, Darvish isn't like a lot of japanese pitchers. He doesn't rely on hesitations and other forms of deception.

I also have a ton of faith in the scouting, evaluation and teaching skills in the Rangers organization. They put a lot of work into Darvish and being certain he was the pitcher they wanted to spend 100 million dollars to acquire. This might be the largest factor in my faith that Darvish will perform as expected.

What is your strategy for saves?

I usually refuse to spend top dollar on closers. If a closer or closers don't go into my acceptable range I will just dump saves during the draft or auction. I used to practice buying next year's closers but this strategy has become so popular that it is sometimes cheaper to just pay for this year's saves.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

I have a few I'm willing to bet on - Jason Heyward and Brain Matusz are two.

Heyward was hit hard by injuries. He has worked hard this winter. He has radically changed his diet and workout habits for the better. He has tremendous natural talent as well as advanced skills with the bat. With health, those talents and skills should be on display in 2012.

Matusz was, not so long ago, considered one of the better pitching prospects in the game. He suffered a couple of injuries that contributed to his loss of velocity. He re-gained most of his fastball towards the end of the season but the control was still a bit behind. I think he'll be fine. The Orioles believe the same thing if that matters to you.

Fill in the blanks in 50 words or less: Everyone is missing out on ______ (secretly valuable fantasy player) because _______ (esoteric expert reason).

Everyone is missing out on Chris Heisey because of the mistaken belief that Dusty Baker would prefer to play the mediocre Ryan Ludwick instead. Dusty does believe in easing youngsters into starting roles, but he has no problem putting more experienced players on his bench. Ludwick was acquired as depth and protection, not as a better option than Heisey.

Heisey has 20/20 potential this season and even 30/30 if everything breaks right for him. Yet he is being drafted in the very late rounds (if at all). This is the year for the Reds and Chris Heisey.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

The candidates have to be Neftali Feliz, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, and Aaron Crow.

I actually like them all to some degree but the one I am most willing to bet on would be Neftali Feliz. Feliz has the highest ceiling, the most success as a starter in the minors, and the best pitching coaches. I'd take Daniel Bard second, Chris Sale and close third, and Crow brings up the rear.

Baseball Manager (BBM)

Baseball Simulation games are becoming very popular with the Advanced Fantasy Baseball crowd. These games are offering experiences that are coming closer and closer to feeling like a MLB General Manager. Baseball Manager or BBM is one of the classics of this sub-section of the fantasy industry . I spoke to BBM owner Josh Metzger about his game.

1. What makes Baseball Manager different from other baseball simulation games?

Baseball Manager (known as BBM to its loyal fans) provides users the most realistic fantasy baseball game. Users play a 162-game season. Just like Major League Baseball. Users set different lineups, one to face left-handed starting pitching, the other lineup to face right-handed starters. Just like Major League Baseball. Users manage a bullpen, making sure they have enough pitchers to throw all nine innings, relying on long relievers and short relievers. Just like managers do in Major League Baseball. Salary caps and salaries are particularly unique to Baseball Manager as no salary is predetermined before a league drafts like so many other leagues. Salaries are established by where managers rank their players in the draft lists with a higher ranking producing a higher salary, which provides a drafting strategy not available anywhere else. Only in Baseball Manager can fantasy baseball users get stats from last night's games plugged into their lineup to produce a box score and a game result with a win or a loss. Unlike some rotisserie games where you wait for cumulative scores, BBM is involving, immediate and often addictive because it challenges you to deal with the daily demands and dramas real GM’s and managers confront

2. Twenty-two years is an eternity in the Fantasy Sports industry. What is the origin story for Baseball Manager? How has the game evolved over twenty-two years?

BBM was created and launched by Prodigy in 1991, and created the game and its unique Scorecard® algorithm, our scoring mechanism which appeals to sabermetric fans. In the early years, Prodigy would use BBM as a means to market the Prodigy Service. It was the first game of its kind on the Internet.

Comparing BBM of 1991 to today's BBM is like comparing the Pony Express to Federer Express: when BBM was launched it was only available on Prodigy and it did not nearly have as many features as it does these days. Since GameLine (led by former Prodigy employees who believed in BBM and bought it as Prodigy was downsizing) bought it, the game has evolved dramatically. It was the first game to offer Keeper Leagues online. It partnered with Fox, Sports Illustrated and ESPN to offer their users a simulation game. Last year, we introduced at our site, www.baseballmanager.com, Progression Leagues, which enables the best players in fantasy baseball to compete against other tough competitors in a ladder format. And this year, Baseball Manager is the first simulation game to be offered as a game on Facebook. For free! Other enhancements include: Free Agent bidding, Stadium effects to impact your offense, and the option to have a Disabled List.

3. What makes Baseball Manager so appealing to fans of Sabermetrics? Does good statistical analysis add to the enjoyment of the game?

Basically, Scorecard® factors your team’s offense (hitting and base running), your team’s defense (pitching and fielding), and your opponent’s offense and defense in determining game resolution. The game appeals to Sabermetrics fans because it is based on real baseball rather than a points system and stats like on base percentage, WHIP, slugging percentage, etc. are vital to BBM success. Situational stats, like RBI and saves, are meaningless in Baseball Manager and likely not very important to fans of Sabermetrics.

4. I understand there are different levels of game play. Can you explain some of the differences between them and what might makes each version special?

We offer a wide range of games to appeal to all managers. We offer a FREE 54-game version of BBM available on Facebook that serves as an introduction to the game. We offer two 162 game season versions of the game: Ultimate and Express. Within each version there are different price points. The different price points provide different levels of prizes. The main differences between Ultimate and Express games, in addition to price are: (a) in Ultimate users need to set lineups to face left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching whereas in Express you only have one lineup; and (b) in Ultimate there are two rounds of playoffs as the top 4 teams in the ten team league advance to the playoffs after a 162 game season. A full list of our league offerings is here: http://www.baseballmanager.com/fantasybaseball/signup.asp

5. What does a potential owner need to do to get started?

To get started, just visit www.baseballmanager.com and enroll. Or go to www.facebook.com/baseballmanager and try the free version on Facebook.

More Free Draft Kits

This isn't the WWE where they often pretend that other wrestling leagues do not exist. That's why I can gladly point you at more Free 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kits.

ClubHouse GM

• Rankings
• Projections
• Auction Values
• Position Tiers
• Sleepers
• Dual Threat
• Park Factors
• Pitchers to Target
• and Much More!

and

Fantasy Baseball Cracker Jacks

• Position-by-position rankings, including top 75 outfielders and starting pitchers.
• Full player projections for standard 5×5 stats, plus a few extra for those leagues that dig a little deeper.
• Top 251 rankings.
• Tiers, sleeper, and health risk thoughts.
• Extras like a draft worksheet.
• Formatted to be easy to read, print, and mark all over.
• 28 pages, completely free!

And the Advanced Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide makes a nice compliment to those.

Rotojunkie Mock One Draft

The RotoJunkie Mock One Draft is a twenty-team league with just one catcher drafted, nine pitchers, and five bench spots. It penetrates pretty deeply into the player pool. We do slow draft that runs from January to late February most of the time.

My plan was to draft a strong offense and look for pitchers I could get later in the draft that might rebound to an earlier round value. I did not plan to skimp on saves but a run on closers caught me with my pants down and almost 40 picks between turns. I think the team is pretty good and we'll let it play out on Yahoo.com. I'll keep you updated.

Let me know what you think and what your strategy might be for winning this league. In the comments or shoot me an e-mail.

C Chris Ianetta 20.20
1B Ryan Howard 5.01
3B Alex Rodriguez 3.01
CR Freddie Freeman 6.20
2B Ryan Raburn 16.20
SS Jhonny Peralta 11.01
MI Jamey Carroll 17.01
OF Matt Kemp 1.01
OF Michael Bourn 2.20
OF Delmon Young 10.20
OF Bryce Harper 13.01
OF Gerrardo Parra 22.20
Utl Paul Goldschmidt 7.01

SP C.J. Wilson 4.20
SP Ubaldo Jimenez 8.20
SP Derek Holland 9.01
SP Chris Sale 12.20
SP Johan Santana 14.20
P Ryan Dempster 15.01
P Shelby Miller 21.01
RP Joaquin Benoit 19.01
RP Sean Marshall 18.20

R1 Alberto Callaspo, 3B
R2 Julio Borbon, OF
R3 Rex Brothers, RP
R4 Clint Barmes, SS
R5 Josh Lueke RP

The Continuing Search For Wins...

After linking to last year's article in yesterday's Free Draft Kit post, I was asked by a few people for an updated list of the pitchers most likely to add wins to your roster. Remember that the keys are tons of innings, at least a 7.5 K9, and a strong groundball rate. I like the GB rate to be at least 40 percent but I'm flexible if the K9 rate is very high.

I included pitchers with 160-plus innings this year with the hope that we might find a few pitchers ready to make an innings leap. Not many made the cut, due to our high standards.

Name	IP	W	K/9	K/BB	GB%	BABIP	BB/9	SIERA	xFIP
Zack Greinke	171.2	16	10.54	4.47	47.30%	0.318	2.36	2.66	2.56
Brandon Morrow	179.1	11	10.19	2.94	36.00%	0.299	3.46	3.31	3.53
Clayton Kershaw	233.1	21	9.57	4.59	43.20%	0.269	2.08	2.81	2.84
Anibal Sanchez	196.1	8	9.26	3.16	44.30%	0.31	2.93	3.29	3.25
Cliff Lee	232.2	17	9.21	5.67	46.30%	0.291	1.62	2.72	2.68
Tim Lincecum	217	13	9.12	2.56	47.90%	0.281	3.57	3.46	3.36
Michael Pineda	171	9	9.11	3.15	36.30%	0.258	2.89	3.36	3.53
Yovani Gallardo	207.1	17	8.99	3.51	46.60%	0.291	2.56	3.22	3.19
Justin Verlander	251	24	8.96	4.39	40.20%	0.236	2.04	2.99	3.12
Matt Garza	198	10	8.95	3.13	46.30%	0.306	2.86	3.31	3.19
Gio Gonzalez	202	16	8.78	2.16	47.50%	0.287	4.05	3.78	3.73
David Price	224.1	12	8.75	3.46	44.30%	0.281	2.53	3.27	3.32
CC Sabathia	237.1	19	8.72	3.77	46.60%	0.318	2.31	3.14	3.02
Ubaldo Jimenez	188.1	10	8.6	2.31	47.20%	0.314	3.73	3.74	3.71
Mat Latos	194.1	9	8.57	2.98	42.80%	0.284	2.87	3.48	3.52
Felix Hernandez	233.2	14	8.55	3.31	50.20%	0.307	2.58	3.22	3.15
Jon Lester	191.2	15	8.55	2.43	50.50%	0.286	3.52	3.59	3.62
Bud Norris	186	6	8.52	2.51	39.70%	0.294	3.39	3.73	3.73
Ryan Dempster	202.1	10	8.5	2.33	44.10%	0.324	3.65	3.79	3.7
Roy Halladay	233.2	19	8.47	6.29	50.90%	0.298	1.35	2.79	2.71
Madison Bumgarner	204.2	13	8.4	4.15	46.00%	0.322	2.02	3.18	3.1
C.J. Wilson	223.1	16	8.3	2.78	49.30%	0.287	2.98	3.44	3.41
A.J. Burnett	190.1	11	8.18	2.08	49.20%	0.294	3.92	3.89	3.86
Josh Beckett	193	13	8.16	3.37	40.10%	0.245	2.42	3.43	3.58
Chris Capuano	186	11	8.13	3.17	42.70%	0.311	2.56	3.6	3.67
James Shields	249.1	16	8.12	3.46	46.20%	0.258	2.35	3.29	3.25
Cole Hamels	216	14	8.08	4.41	52.30%	0.255	1.83	3.03	3.02
Max Scherzer	195	15	8.03	3.11	40.30%	0.314	2.58	3.63	3.7
Ian Kennedy	222	21	8.03	3.6	38.60%	0.27	2.23	3.44	3.5
Wandy Rodriguez	191	11	7.82	2.41	45.20%	0.289	3.25	3.8	3.72
Colby Lewis	200.1	14	7.59	3.02	34.10%	0.265	2.52	3.88	4.1
Javier Vazquez	192.2	13	7.57	3.24	34.20%	0.279	2.34	3.78	3.87
Jered Weaver	235.2	18	7.56	3.54	32.50%	0.25	2.14	3.67	3.8

The names I find most interesting as potential bargains are Anibal Sanchez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bud Norris, Ryan Dempster, A.J. Burnett, Chris Capuano and Max Scherzer. These pitchers are the ones on this list I would give the greatest odds of having a breakout season as well as coming at a potential discount for various reasons.

The Free Advanced Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

As Fantasy Preparation starts to kick into overdrive, I thought it might be helpful to put together a collection of some of this site's more useful articles. Within these links you'll find advice for almost every type of league and a ton of strategy and trade tips. Everything from calculating inflation to building an auction budget to scouting pitchers. So hopefully this post will save you a bunch of time searching the internet, time you can now devote to finding cheap tickets to MLB's Opening Day! This article provides you with info rarely found in most magazines and internet Draft Guides, and it is entirely free.

Building Your Auction Budget

Lucky breaks down his strategy for building the optimal Auction Day Budget. This is one of the keys to fantasy prep that many owners skip - to their detriment.

Auction Strategy and Tactics

This is another of Lucky's Greatest Hits (it looks like he'll have more for you soon, keep those fingers crossed). This article breaks down the auction into its various components and shows you the keys to exploiting those elements to your advantage.

Looking for Wins?

Wins are the most unpredictable category but they still represent ten percent of your potential fantasy points. This article gives you the keys to maximizing your chances at putting more wins on your championship roster.

The Ten Step Non-Wussy Guide to Re-Building Your Fantasy Team

Do you have a weak keeper list after trading your way into a Championship? This article shows that you do not have to take a year or more off from winning if you're willing to put the work into it.

The Secrets of Sustained Success

Why do some owners continually sit at the top of the standings while others only get there once in a while? This article breaks down the elements of sustained success.

Patience is a Virtue for Fantasy Owners

Do you find yourself regretting certain trades or FAAB bids during the season? This article preaches the virtues of patience.

A Quick Guide to Calculating Inflation and Building a Freeze List

So many fantasy owners are overwhelmed by even the idea of inflation. This article makes it easy to understand and implement into your draft prep.

Building A Better Pitching Staff

This article is about Zigging while they Zag. Everyone is using the 70/30 hitting to pitching ratio. If you have been thinking about trying something different, this article may provide some inspiration.

The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Fantasy Owners

This article takes the ideas of a popular self help book and applies them to your fantasy team. It works better than you may believe.

Ten Fantasy Baseball Trade Secrets

Are you a big trader in your leagues? Even if you are not, this article provides some guidelines to becoming a great trader.

Your Favorite Fantasy Expert Poll

This article isn't about advice so much as who you should listen to. Check out the comments and you may find some great fantasy experts you have not been following.

Auction Keeper League Strategies

Looking for an advantage in your keeper league auction? This article may be the advice that puts you over the top.

Anti-Dumping Strategies

Are dump trades getting you down? Try some of these ideas to make it a non issue in your league.

Winning Takes More Than Player Knowledge

Think you know the player pool better than everyone else in your league but still can't find your name on a championship trophy? Even the very best player analysts need to understand what it takes to win.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

Ask yourself these questions and you may find you start to think differently regarding your freeze list and draft strategy.

Ryan Braun Speaks

Ryan Braun spoke out today regarding the process he took to proving himself not guilty of taking any illegal substances. There isn't much there that we haven't heard from other sources but it is interesting to hear the way he defends himself.