Fantasy Baseball Investments: Safe or Dangerous?

As fantasy owners we are constantly searching for an edge. Something that will allow us to know a little more and draft a little better than our rivals. It is not easy these days. Everyone has access to great information. One of the little tapped areas (and we have seen more articles about it than ever this year) is in drafting those that hard fluke bad seasons, obviously expecting a rebound. Another area would be avoiding those that had fluke good seasons.

I've put together a list of some of the most surprising performers of the 2011 season (both good and bad) and given you my views on what led to the performance and how likely it is to last. To make things simpler to understand for those that tend to scan articles quickly without reading, Ive labeled the players I believe will be solid contributors as Safe and those unlikely to be as Dangerous.These aren't in any special order.

Adam Dunn - Dangerous Investment

Last season I predicted that Adam Dunn would hit 50 homers. There wasn't much evidence to suggest that he couldn't. he was moving into a more favorable park and into what seemed to be a better lineup. However, there was some evidence that a down year was coming, it stands out a bit more now.

The last two seasons Dunn has swung at many more pitches out of the zone than he did in previous years. He has never been a good contact hitter on such pitches and it led to a two year spike in his strikeout rate. He also had an appendectomy just before the season started and came back to play very quickly. It seemed to me at the time, and my belief in this has only gotten stronger, that this led to some reduced power. He also hit a lot more infield fly balls than he typically does. This is usually a sign that a batter's timing is off. It could also be a sign that his bat is slowing down. His .240 BABIP relative to his career .292 rate will probably rebound some. But if his bat is truly slowing it is not likely to come back all the way.

My belief is that Dunn's power is not entirely gone. I do believe that his bat is slowing down and as a consequence his power will not come all the way back. If he gets a full workload I can see him hitting 20-25 homers but i think the average will be closer to .200 than the .250 average we've always been willing to accept for 40 homeruns. I am avoiding Dunn unless I get a very extreme discount.

Mike Morse - Safe Investment

Mike Morse has been a pretty good hitter for a while. He has shown little patience but is a decent contact hitter for a slugger. He had a slightly elevated line drive rate in 2011 which probably contributed to his high average and slightly elevated slugging percentage. But the thing that most contributed to his great season was a high number of at-bats. Morse should see even more plate appearances this season as the full-time starter in left field from the start of the season. This should allow him to come fairly close to repeating his homerun totals from 2011. However, there should be some regression to his career BABIP and batted ball rates. But I think this is more likely to reduce his average than dramatically reduce his power. I see a .275-280 hitter with 30 homerun power. I am definitely buying.

Alex Rios - Dangerous Investment

It is kinda weird, but some of the problems Rios had in 2011 were probably due to him making too much contact, thus putting more balls in play. He swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than he usually does, but he also made much better contact with those balls, unfortunately he could not do anything with them. That combined with poor BABIP luck and a slightly lower HR/FB relative to his career rates, suggests that this was just more of the tragically bad luck that struck the White Sox last season. He should rebound but still bid cautiously. Rios has been very bad two of the last three seasons. I'm staying away.

Jeremy Hellickson - Invest Very Cautiously

The funny thing about Hellickson is that most analysts expected him to be good. Hell Boy had great numbers in the minors and the Tampa Bay Rays are very good at extracting the most from their young pitchers. In the minors he displayed a strong k-rate and excellent control to go with a decent trend of inducing groundballs. He was one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

However, his performance in 2011 as a major leaguer did not much reflect those skills, despite his excellent results. He had an extremely low BABIP of .223 and a rather weak 5.57 K9. At the same time his walk rate was higher than it ever was in the minors at a mediocre 3.43 BB9. All this led to a FIP of 4.44 and a xFIP of 4.72, numbers you would not like to see as ERAs on your fantasy roster.

Not all is lost is lost for Hellickson owners. He has a very strong history as a pitcher. I full expect that his control and strikeout rate will rebound. Owners need to be aware that even if his skills show a massive improvement he is still unlikely to repeat his 2011 results. That leaves plenty of room for him to be good however. I am not buying but if I owned him at a decent price I would still hold him. I do not think he will turn into a disaster for his owners, but he will be disappointing relative to his 2011 results.

Ryan Vogelsong - Invest with Caution

Vogelsong was a pretty bad pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates early in his career. He ended up in Japan where he apparently learned enough about pitching to sign on with first the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies and finally the Giants as a minor leaguer.

His problem has always been horrid control. Until 2011 that is. Last season Vogelsong had pretty good control. It was not there in 2010 in the minors. Even his short stint in the minors during the 2011 season he didn't show amazing control, but it was still improved from previous seasons. His BABIP was low but not so low to suggest that there was no talent involved.

It is difficult to believe in a repeat of his 2011 results but I do believe that he has made enough real improvements to be a solid average pitcher providing innings at the end of the Giants rotation.

Alex Rodriguez - Safe Investment

There is little doubt that A-Rod is getting older and closer to the end of his career than to his prime. However he has still been very effective when he has been healthy. The problem is his injuries have been more frequent and longer lasting than in the past. I suppose some will point to his past PED use as a factor but I do not actually believe that to be the case.

Rodriguez began the off-season by having a procedure done on his knee on NBA star, Kobe Bryant's recommendation. Bryant vouched for the German doctor who developed the course of injections of plasma-rich platelets called Orthokine that supposedly stimulates healing in arthritis-affected areas.

A month after the knee treatment Rodriguez had a 45-minute conversation without another NBA star, Grant Hill. Hill was able to answer questions A-Rod had about signing on for Dr. Mike Clark's Athletic Performance Optimization System. Hill credits Clark with extending his career after being close to retirement due to consistent injuries.

Here's a quote from a great article about it in the New York DailyNews:

An almost instant convert, Rodriguez invited Clark to his Miami home. The toes-to-neck assessment, which included a breakdown of Rodriguez’s swing, left Clark believing A-Rod had strength imbalances and/or a lack of flexibility in his right big toe, left ankle, right knee and right hip. It is a chicken-and-egg argument what came first, but all feed upon each other to create a domino effect of wear, tear and pain. They also helped cause, in Clark’s estimation, an impingement in Rodriguez’s left shoulder. A result of the lack of movement here and instability there was a swing that had lost some range and power.

You might want to dismiss the idea of inflexibility in a toe as being consequential. But Clark doesn’t, believing “in a ground up” evaluation. Rodriguez had a 27-degree range of motion in his right big toe, when 70 is ideal. Without that flexibility, when the toe grounds into the dirt just past the midpoint of a swing, greater stress is placed on, among other things, the knee and hips — the two areas where Rodriguez has had surgery over the past three years.

I am buying on A-Rod's rebound this year.

Doug Fister - Dangerous Investment

Fister was drafted by the New York Yankees in the sixth round of the 2005 draft. he held out for more money and it did not pay off. He wound up the seventh round pick of the Mariners the following season. His performance in the minors was okay but not spectacular. He always displayed solid control and mediocre strikeout rates. More recently his control improved and his k-rate slightly improved. Still little was expected of him.

He had a solid debut in the majors in 2009 and displayed more of the same in 2010. However in 2011 his velocity spiked and he showed the best k-rate of his career. This led to great success but even with the slight improvement to his skills there are reasons to wary of his ability to repeat. He had an extremely low BABIP and HR/FB. He is moving from Seattle's Safeco Field which has a 95/82 L/R HR factor to Detroit's Comerica Park which has a 88/108 factor. He will also have a much weaker defense behind him for the entire season. With less luck, less favorable park, and a less favorable defense, Fister's BABIP is very likely to go up a significant amount.

Fister may still be a solid starter but do not expect an ace or even more than a solid mid-rotation innings eater. If you want a sleeper in Detroit's rotation take a look at Max Scherzer. I am not buying on Doug Fister.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Safe Investment

Most of Ubaldo's core statistics have been relatively consistent over the last four seasons. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rates have been pretty much in a consistent range. What first stands out from the 2011 season is his BABIP of .317 relative to his career .286 mark. Then his HR9 and HR/FB are both elevated. taking a look at his PitchFX charts makes the cause seem pretty obvious - reduced velocity. You can see it for yourself in the chart below.

After spending most of his career throwing in the mid to high 90's, Ubaldo was suddenly in the lower 90's. It may not seem like a tremendous change but to major league sluggers it was. He mostly fought through two injuries last season. A thumbnail injury and a groin injury.

Here's a quote from Cleveland Indians General Manager Chris Antonetti:

"Ubaldo felt that his season was sidetracked by a groin injury that affected his lower-body strength and his ability to consistently execute his delivery. To be sure he comes into camp with the best foundation for success, Ubaldo has worked diligently this winter with one of our strength and conditioning coaches on his core and lower half strength and flexibility."

In fact one of the Indians Strength and Conditioning coaches, Nelson Perez, moved to the Dominican Republic over the winter so that he could work with Jimenez and catcher Carlos Santana every day. It seems to have worked because so far this Spring Training, Jimenez had his fastball back to a consistent 94-96 mph. I'm buying.

American League LABR

You can access the results of the Al-Only League of Alternative Baseball Reality on a Google Docs Spreadsheet. I won't reproduce the teams here but I will give you my quick impressions of each team.

Chris Liss - Rotowire

Pricey Stud - Ian Kinsler $30

Best Bargain - Travis Snider $5

Nick Minnix - KFFL

Fully Priced Power - Albert Pujols $41

Super Sleeper - Alexi Casilla $6

Perry Van Hook - Mastersball.com

Biggest Expenditure - Brett Lawrie $28

Frugal Find - Matt Harrison $6

Nate Ravitz - ESPN

Big Buy - Jose Bautista $35

Best Buy - James Shields $19

Dave Adler - Baseball HQ

Most Money - Mark Teixeira $30

Priced to Move - Henderson Alvarez $5

Jason Collette - Baseball Prospectus

Fancy First Baseman - Prince Fielder $32

Stud Sleeper - Wilson Betemit $9

Larry Schecter - Sandlot Shrink

Admired Anchor - Jacoby Ellsbury $36

Crackerjack Pick - Grant Balfour $7

Brad Evans - Yahoo! Sports

Costly Corner - Adrian Beltre $29

Prized Prospect - Ryan Kalish $2

Wolf/Colton - Rotoworld.com

Meritorious Man - Miguel Cabrera $40

Small Speculation - Manny Ramirez $3

Ambrosius/Childs - NFBC

Rare Red Sox - Adrian Gonzalez $36

Least Likely - Matt LaPorta $1

Erickson/Melnick - Sirius XM

Laser Show - Dustin Pedroia $33

Sharp Savings - Max Scherzer $13

Steve Gardner - USA Today

Ace Acquisition - Felix Hernandez $27

Former Ranger - Chris Davis $7

The 2012 Fantasy Baseball Index Expert Poll

I blatantly stole these questions from the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Index magazine's expert poll. Join in the fun by providing your own answers to one, some or all of the questions in the commenting section.

Late round player who will provide early rounds value

AL- Henderson Alvarez

NL-Chris Heisey

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners

AL- Matt Moore

NL- Stephen Strasburg

Closer most likely to lose his job

AL- Jose Valverde

NL- Rafael Betancourt (not because he lacks skills but because the Rockies are already grooming his replacement).

Best value pick at closer

AL- Joakim Soria

NL- Ryan Madson

Rookie of the Year

AL- Yu Darvish

NL- Nolan Arenado

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season

AL - Adam Dunn's lack of power

NL- Allen Craig

2012 Fantasy MVP

AL- Josh Hamilton

NL- Matt Kemp

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

Spend it but within reason. I see Yu Darvish as a potential front line pitcher, a top ten type of guy. I see his downside as still slightly better than league average. In an AL-only I'd be willing to bid into the low to mid 20's.

Darvish's situation is nothing like Dice-K's. Matsuzaka came to the Red Sox and rather than be happy with what they had, they tried to change him into their version of what he should be. They made him change his workout routines, reduced his use of his change-up, and then didn't support him publicly when he failed to be an ace. In addition, Darvish isn't like a lot of japanese pitchers. He doesn't rely on hesitations and other forms of deception.

I also have a ton of faith in the scouting, evaluation and teaching skills in the Rangers organization. They put a lot of work into Darvish and being certain he was the pitcher they wanted to spend 100 million dollars to acquire. This might be the largest factor in my faith that Darvish will perform as expected.

What is your strategy for saves?

I usually refuse to spend top dollar on closers. If a closer or closers don't go into my acceptable range I will just dump saves during the draft or auction. I used to practice buying next year's closers but this strategy has become so popular that it is sometimes cheaper to just pay for this year's saves.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

I have a few I'm willing to bet on - Jason Heyward and Brain Matusz are two.

Heyward was hit hard by injuries. He has worked hard this winter. He has radically changed his diet and workout habits for the better. He has tremendous natural talent as well as advanced skills with the bat. With health, those talents and skills should be on display in 2012.

Matusz was, not so long ago, considered one of the better pitching prospects in the game. He suffered a couple of injuries that contributed to his loss of velocity. He re-gained most of his fastball towards the end of the season but the control was still a bit behind. I think he'll be fine. The Orioles believe the same thing if that matters to you.

Fill in the blanks in 50 words or less: Everyone is missing out on ______ (secretly valuable fantasy player) because _______ (esoteric expert reason).

Everyone is missing out on Chris Heisey because of the mistaken belief that Dusty Baker would prefer to play the mediocre Ryan Ludwick instead. Dusty does believe in easing youngsters into starting roles, but he has no problem putting more experienced players on his bench. Ludwick was acquired as depth and protection, not as a better option than Heisey.

Heisey has 20/20 potential this season and even 30/30 if everything breaks right for him. Yet he is being drafted in the very late rounds (if at all). This is the year for the Reds and Chris Heisey.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

The candidates have to be Neftali Feliz, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, and Aaron Crow.

I actually like them all to some degree but the one I am most willing to bet on would be Neftali Feliz. Feliz has the highest ceiling, the most success as a starter in the minors, and the best pitching coaches. I'd take Daniel Bard second, Chris Sale and close third, and Crow brings up the rear.

Baseball Manager (BBM)

Baseball Simulation games are becoming very popular with the Advanced Fantasy Baseball crowd. These games are offering experiences that are coming closer and closer to feeling like a MLB General Manager. Baseball Manager or BBM is one of the classics of this sub-section of the fantasy industry . I spoke to BBM owner Josh Metzger about his game.

1. What makes Baseball Manager different from other baseball simulation games?

Baseball Manager (known as BBM to its loyal fans) provides users the most realistic fantasy baseball game. Users play a 162-game season. Just like Major League Baseball. Users set different lineups, one to face left-handed starting pitching, the other lineup to face right-handed starters. Just like Major League Baseball. Users manage a bullpen, making sure they have enough pitchers to throw all nine innings, relying on long relievers and short relievers. Just like managers do in Major League Baseball. Salary caps and salaries are particularly unique to Baseball Manager as no salary is predetermined before a league drafts like so many other leagues. Salaries are established by where managers rank their players in the draft lists with a higher ranking producing a higher salary, which provides a drafting strategy not available anywhere else. Only in Baseball Manager can fantasy baseball users get stats from last night's games plugged into their lineup to produce a box score and a game result with a win or a loss. Unlike some rotisserie games where you wait for cumulative scores, BBM is involving, immediate and often addictive because it challenges you to deal with the daily demands and dramas real GM’s and managers confront

2. Twenty-two years is an eternity in the Fantasy Sports industry. What is the origin story for Baseball Manager? How has the game evolved over twenty-two years?

BBM was created and launched by Prodigy in 1991, and created the game and its unique Scorecard® algorithm, our scoring mechanism which appeals to sabermetric fans. In the early years, Prodigy would use BBM as a means to market the Prodigy Service. It was the first game of its kind on the Internet.

Comparing BBM of 1991 to today's BBM is like comparing the Pony Express to Federer Express: when BBM was launched it was only available on Prodigy and it did not nearly have as many features as it does these days. Since GameLine (led by former Prodigy employees who believed in BBM and bought it as Prodigy was downsizing) bought it, the game has evolved dramatically. It was the first game to offer Keeper Leagues online. It partnered with Fox, Sports Illustrated and ESPN to offer their users a simulation game. Last year, we introduced at our site, www.baseballmanager.com, Progression Leagues, which enables the best players in fantasy baseball to compete against other tough competitors in a ladder format. And this year, Baseball Manager is the first simulation game to be offered as a game on Facebook. For free! Other enhancements include: Free Agent bidding, Stadium effects to impact your offense, and the option to have a Disabled List.

3. What makes Baseball Manager so appealing to fans of Sabermetrics? Does good statistical analysis add to the enjoyment of the game?

Basically, Scorecard® factors your team’s offense (hitting and base running), your team’s defense (pitching and fielding), and your opponent’s offense and defense in determining game resolution. The game appeals to Sabermetrics fans because it is based on real baseball rather than a points system and stats like on base percentage, WHIP, slugging percentage, etc. are vital to BBM success. Situational stats, like RBI and saves, are meaningless in Baseball Manager and likely not very important to fans of Sabermetrics.

4. I understand there are different levels of game play. Can you explain some of the differences between them and what might makes each version special?

We offer a wide range of games to appeal to all managers. We offer a FREE 54-game version of BBM available on Facebook that serves as an introduction to the game. We offer two 162 game season versions of the game: Ultimate and Express. Within each version there are different price points. The different price points provide different levels of prizes. The main differences between Ultimate and Express games, in addition to price are: (a) in Ultimate users need to set lineups to face left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching whereas in Express you only have one lineup; and (b) in Ultimate there are two rounds of playoffs as the top 4 teams in the ten team league advance to the playoffs after a 162 game season. A full list of our league offerings is here: http://www.baseballmanager.com/fantasybaseball/signup.asp

5. What does a potential owner need to do to get started?

To get started, just visit www.baseballmanager.com and enroll. Or go to www.facebook.com/baseballmanager and try the free version on Facebook.

More Free Draft Kits

This isn't the WWE where they often pretend that other wrestling leagues do not exist. That's why I can gladly point you at more Free 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kits.

ClubHouse GM

• Rankings
• Projections
• Auction Values
• Position Tiers
• Sleepers
• Dual Threat
• Park Factors
• Pitchers to Target
• and Much More!

and

Fantasy Baseball Cracker Jacks

• Position-by-position rankings, including top 75 outfielders and starting pitchers.
• Full player projections for standard 5×5 stats, plus a few extra for those leagues that dig a little deeper.
• Top 251 rankings.
• Tiers, sleeper, and health risk thoughts.
• Extras like a draft worksheet.
• Formatted to be easy to read, print, and mark all over.
• 28 pages, completely free!

And the Advanced Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide makes a nice compliment to those.

Rotojunkie Mock One Draft

The RotoJunkie Mock One Draft is a twenty-team league with just one catcher drafted, nine pitchers, and five bench spots. It penetrates pretty deeply into the player pool. We do slow draft that runs from January to late February most of the time.

My plan was to draft a strong offense and look for pitchers I could get later in the draft that might rebound to an earlier round value. I did not plan to skimp on saves but a run on closers caught me with my pants down and almost 40 picks between turns. I think the team is pretty good and we'll let it play out on Yahoo.com. I'll keep you updated.

Let me know what you think and what your strategy might be for winning this league. In the comments or shoot me an e-mail.

C Chris Ianetta 20.20
1B Ryan Howard 5.01
3B Alex Rodriguez 3.01
CR Freddie Freeman 6.20
2B Ryan Raburn 16.20
SS Jhonny Peralta 11.01
MI Jamey Carroll 17.01
OF Matt Kemp 1.01
OF Michael Bourn 2.20
OF Delmon Young 10.20
OF Bryce Harper 13.01
OF Gerrardo Parra 22.20
Utl Paul Goldschmidt 7.01

SP C.J. Wilson 4.20
SP Ubaldo Jimenez 8.20
SP Derek Holland 9.01
SP Chris Sale 12.20
SP Johan Santana 14.20
P Ryan Dempster 15.01
P Shelby Miller 21.01
RP Joaquin Benoit 19.01
RP Sean Marshall 18.20

R1 Alberto Callaspo, 3B
R2 Julio Borbon, OF
R3 Rex Brothers, RP
R4 Clint Barmes, SS
R5 Josh Lueke RP

The Continuing Search For Wins...

After linking to last year's article in yesterday's Free Draft Kit post, I was asked by a few people for an updated list of the pitchers most likely to add wins to your roster. Remember that the keys are tons of innings, at least a 7.5 K9, and a strong groundball rate. I like the GB rate to be at least 40 percent but I'm flexible if the K9 rate is very high.

I included pitchers with 160-plus innings this year with the hope that we might find a few pitchers ready to make an innings leap. Not many made the cut, due to our high standards.

Name	IP	W	K/9	K/BB	GB%	BABIP	BB/9	SIERA	xFIP
Zack Greinke	171.2	16	10.54	4.47	47.30%	0.318	2.36	2.66	2.56
Brandon Morrow	179.1	11	10.19	2.94	36.00%	0.299	3.46	3.31	3.53
Clayton Kershaw	233.1	21	9.57	4.59	43.20%	0.269	2.08	2.81	2.84
Anibal Sanchez	196.1	8	9.26	3.16	44.30%	0.31	2.93	3.29	3.25
Cliff Lee	232.2	17	9.21	5.67	46.30%	0.291	1.62	2.72	2.68
Tim Lincecum	217	13	9.12	2.56	47.90%	0.281	3.57	3.46	3.36
Michael Pineda	171	9	9.11	3.15	36.30%	0.258	2.89	3.36	3.53
Yovani Gallardo	207.1	17	8.99	3.51	46.60%	0.291	2.56	3.22	3.19
Justin Verlander	251	24	8.96	4.39	40.20%	0.236	2.04	2.99	3.12
Matt Garza	198	10	8.95	3.13	46.30%	0.306	2.86	3.31	3.19
Gio Gonzalez	202	16	8.78	2.16	47.50%	0.287	4.05	3.78	3.73
David Price	224.1	12	8.75	3.46	44.30%	0.281	2.53	3.27	3.32
CC Sabathia	237.1	19	8.72	3.77	46.60%	0.318	2.31	3.14	3.02
Ubaldo Jimenez	188.1	10	8.6	2.31	47.20%	0.314	3.73	3.74	3.71
Mat Latos	194.1	9	8.57	2.98	42.80%	0.284	2.87	3.48	3.52
Felix Hernandez	233.2	14	8.55	3.31	50.20%	0.307	2.58	3.22	3.15
Jon Lester	191.2	15	8.55	2.43	50.50%	0.286	3.52	3.59	3.62
Bud Norris	186	6	8.52	2.51	39.70%	0.294	3.39	3.73	3.73
Ryan Dempster	202.1	10	8.5	2.33	44.10%	0.324	3.65	3.79	3.7
Roy Halladay	233.2	19	8.47	6.29	50.90%	0.298	1.35	2.79	2.71
Madison Bumgarner	204.2	13	8.4	4.15	46.00%	0.322	2.02	3.18	3.1
C.J. Wilson	223.1	16	8.3	2.78	49.30%	0.287	2.98	3.44	3.41
A.J. Burnett	190.1	11	8.18	2.08	49.20%	0.294	3.92	3.89	3.86
Josh Beckett	193	13	8.16	3.37	40.10%	0.245	2.42	3.43	3.58
Chris Capuano	186	11	8.13	3.17	42.70%	0.311	2.56	3.6	3.67
James Shields	249.1	16	8.12	3.46	46.20%	0.258	2.35	3.29	3.25
Cole Hamels	216	14	8.08	4.41	52.30%	0.255	1.83	3.03	3.02
Max Scherzer	195	15	8.03	3.11	40.30%	0.314	2.58	3.63	3.7
Ian Kennedy	222	21	8.03	3.6	38.60%	0.27	2.23	3.44	3.5
Wandy Rodriguez	191	11	7.82	2.41	45.20%	0.289	3.25	3.8	3.72
Colby Lewis	200.1	14	7.59	3.02	34.10%	0.265	2.52	3.88	4.1
Javier Vazquez	192.2	13	7.57	3.24	34.20%	0.279	2.34	3.78	3.87
Jered Weaver	235.2	18	7.56	3.54	32.50%	0.25	2.14	3.67	3.8

The names I find most interesting as potential bargains are Anibal Sanchez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bud Norris, Ryan Dempster, A.J. Burnett, Chris Capuano and Max Scherzer. These pitchers are the ones on this list I would give the greatest odds of having a breakout season as well as coming at a potential discount for various reasons.

The Free Advanced Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

As Fantasy Preparation starts to kick into overdrive, I thought it might be helpful to put together a collection of some of this site's more useful articles. Within these links you'll find advice for almost every type of league and a ton of strategy and trade tips. Everything from calculating inflation to building an auction budget to scouting pitchers. So hopefully this post will save you a bunch of time searching the internet, time you can now devote to finding cheap tickets to MLB's Opening Day! This article provides you with info rarely found in most magazines and internet Draft Guides, and it is entirely free.

Building Your Auction Budget

Lucky breaks down his strategy for building the optimal Auction Day Budget. This is one of the keys to fantasy prep that many owners skip - to their detriment.

Auction Strategy and Tactics

This is another of Lucky's Greatest Hits (it looks like he'll have more for you soon, keep those fingers crossed). This article breaks down the auction into its various components and shows you the keys to exploiting those elements to your advantage.

Looking for Wins?

Wins are the most unpredictable category but they still represent ten percent of your potential fantasy points. This article gives you the keys to maximizing your chances at putting more wins on your championship roster.

The Ten Step Non-Wussy Guide to Re-Building Your Fantasy Team

Do you have a weak keeper list after trading your way into a Championship? This article shows that you do not have to take a year or more off from winning if you're willing to put the work into it.

The Secrets of Sustained Success

Why do some owners continually sit at the top of the standings while others only get there once in a while? This article breaks down the elements of sustained success.

Patience is a Virtue for Fantasy Owners

Do you find yourself regretting certain trades or FAAB bids during the season? This article preaches the virtues of patience.

A Quick Guide to Calculating Inflation and Building a Freeze List

So many fantasy owners are overwhelmed by even the idea of inflation. This article makes it easy to understand and implement into your draft prep.

Building A Better Pitching Staff

This article is about Zigging while they Zag. Everyone is using the 70/30 hitting to pitching ratio. If you have been thinking about trying something different, this article may provide some inspiration.

The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Fantasy Owners

This article takes the ideas of a popular self help book and applies them to your fantasy team. It works better than you may believe.

Ten Fantasy Baseball Trade Secrets

Are you a big trader in your leagues? Even if you are not, this article provides some guidelines to becoming a great trader.

Your Favorite Fantasy Expert Poll

This article isn't about advice so much as who you should listen to. Check out the comments and you may find some great fantasy experts you have not been following.

Auction Keeper League Strategies

Looking for an advantage in your keeper league auction? This article may be the advice that puts you over the top.

Anti-Dumping Strategies

Are dump trades getting you down? Try some of these ideas to make it a non issue in your league.

Winning Takes More Than Player Knowledge

Think you know the player pool better than everyone else in your league but still can't find your name on a championship trophy? Even the very best player analysts need to understand what it takes to win.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

Ask yourself these questions and you may find you start to think differently regarding your freeze list and draft strategy.

Ryan Braun Speaks

Ryan Braun spoke out today regarding the process he took to proving himself not guilty of taking any illegal substances. There isn't much there that we haven't heard from other sources but it is interesting to hear the way he defends himself.

Deep Head-to-Head Strategy Ideas

I received this e-mail recently:

Hey Jon

I'm being thrown headfirst into the deep end. Having never been in over a 12 team league I draft a terrible slot in my 1st 20 team league. I am open to ANY advice on how to draft from that slot. Setting are below

20 teams but 4 divisions

Scoring Type: Head-to-Head , but no playoffs … regular season winner = winner

Player Universe: All baseball

Allow Draft Pick Trades: Yes

Waiver Type: FAAB w/ Continual rolling list tiebreak

Max Acquisitions per Week: 5

Min Innings Pitched: 15

Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, Util, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

Categories = std 5X5

Thanks in advance,

Big Mike

In my opinion Head2Head is the most difficult style of fantasy to have consistent success. The luck factor in H2H looms larger because of the weekly games. It becomes more important that you roster players that provide consistent production from week to week. It also requires that owners are extremely diligent in setting their lineups. In roto-style leagues, a week of inactivity can pass without incident, that is rarely the case in H2H. You are always looking to maximize pitching match-ups and get two-start pitchers into your lineup.

Five Deep H2H League Strategy Tips

1. Pitching, Especially Starting Pitching is Emphasized - H2H leagues tend to have a smaller roster of hitters than in roto leagues. Fortunately, Big Mike is not in a points-based H2H league which would make good pitching even more vital. The balance of hitters to pitchers is closer. I would make a greater effort than usual to roster a couple of top starters. Overall, you want safer starters and in a deep league they will run out fast. Readers familiar with BaseballHQ.com would target pitchers with high PQS scores. Simply put, it is about minimizing the potential for disastrous outings.
   
2. Take Fewer Risks - As fantasy owners we love the upside of less experienced batters. Guys like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are bound to find a place on the ends of our rosters. But in H2H leagues you want players you can count on. Sure, Harper may hit 40 homers but is as likely to to spend half the year in the minors and to struggle in his initial opportunity. This is not to say you should not take any risks. It is hard to win a fantasy league playing it completely safe. What you want to do is take better risks. Instead of betting on rookies or players coming back from injuries, focus on players who have been productive but who have the skills to do more. One example might be Logan Morrison. Morrison has shown he has the ability to hit for average with above average power but he hasn't displayed all those skills in the major leagues, this might be the season he does it.
3. Dumping Categories is NOT a Bad Idea - In H2H your aim is to win more categories in a given week than your opponent. In deeper leagues, power has become a scarce commodity. Dumping homers to load up on avg, runs, and steals is a way to gain an advantage during your draft. This strategy would allow you to draft a few top starting pitchers early and build a surplus in 6-7 categories while your opponents struggle to build a more balanced lineup.
4. Avoid the Injury Prone - I am usually one to draft a Chipper Jones or a J.J. Putz if they come at a discount. However, in deeper leagues the quality of the replacement player is far less. In a twelve-team mixed league I might be able to pick up Placido Polanco or a similar replacement for Chipper (maybe even better) but in a deep league that replacement is more like Greg Dobbs (if you're lucky) and you may have to overbid to get him.
5. Plot Your Strategy Carefully - For experienced owners, the player pool in a twelve-team league is well known. In a twenty team league, even with smaller H2H rosters, the later rounds can be hazardous when you are breaching that depth for the first time. Avoid targeting specific players but put together short lists for each round so you have a target range. Remember, the deeper the league the more important your initial draft becomes. So do not wing it.
   

Johan Santana Update

So far so good for Johan Santana. Santana is going cheap enough that he is worth the risk given the current information.

Nice Jerry Dipoto Article

I believe that to be the very best at Fantasy Baseball you need to understand where teams are coming from with the moves they make. This doesn't mean you need to agree with every move but rather be able to see what the general manager was thinking. For this reason, I try to know as much as possible about the GM of each MLB team. Jerry Dipoto seems to be one of the better young minds running a baseball team.

Check out this piece on Jerry Dipoto:

It began in July 2010, when he took over as interim general manager in Arizona upon Josh Byrnes' dismissal, then eased the D-backs' payroll, restocked their barren farm system and put them on the path to an eventual playoff berth with the savvy trades of Edwin Jackson, Chris Snyder and Dan Haren (now the Angels' No. 2 starter).

It happened through two interviews with Angels owner Arte Moreno and president John Carpino, who met Dipoto over breakfast and dinner in Arizona and ultimately chose him over a wide-ranging list of candidates.

And it happened on a grease board at his Winter Meetings suite, where it took Dipoto only 20 minutes to impress even the saltiest of scouts.

"Some of the guys that had been around for a while came out of there just in awe saying, 'Man, that's unbelievable,' and, 'We're in such good hands,' said Tim Schmidt, who worked for Dipoto in Arizona and is now one of his special-assignment scouts. "I look at them and say, 'Oh geez, guys, he's just getting started. He's got a lot more than that.'"

He had plenty more in the January organizational meetings he set up at the club's Spring Training site in Tempe, Ariz. Scott Servais, one of Dipoto's new assistant general managers, was in charge of putting together the agenda and needed to fill three hours. He figured Dipoto would take up one of them, so Servais was looking for somebody to open and close the day-one session.

No need. Dipoto took up the entire time breaking down his philosophies for constructing a 25- and 40-man roster.

"There was not one person who left those meetings there for two days and couldn't feel the energy and the passion he has for doing the job and taking the time to kind of pull back the curtain," Servais said

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Jesus Montero

Check out Jesus Montero as he works on hitting to the opposite field, via Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. Word is that Montero is also working hard behind the plate.

Montero, 22, will likely play catcher several games a week and designated hitter the rest of the time as the Mariners look to get his potent bat in the lineup. There have been questions about whether he's ready to be a Major League catcher, but manager Eric Wedge -- himself a former backstop -- says so far, so good.

"I watch him catch and work the drills and do everything," Wedge said Friday after the Mariners wrapped up the pitchers and catchers portion of camp. "He's going to continue to work and get better. But he's looked well so far. There are always things you feel you can help a young player with and he's no different. Because we're not in a hurry with it, [catching and third-base coach] Jeff Datz will do a fantastic job with it and they'll develop that bond and working relationship day to day. He's handling himself well."

The Auction Budget Split, 70/30?

I received this e-mail recently:

Hi there, I just read your entry here:

http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.com/2011/03/building-your-auction-budget.html

I'm writing to ask a question regarding the building the budget paragraph. I'm in a 16 team (5x5) weekly H2H league. We can have 22 players on our roster. That means 352 total players are available in the pool. Given this, would you still project to a 70/30 split on finances? How do you arrive at the 70/30 number in the 1st place. I feel like that is the one thing not touched upon in this article.

Many thanks,

Michael

Hi Michael,

The 70/30 split for hitting/pitching is based on the belief that hitting is easier to project than pitching. It takes into account the difficulty in projecting and unpredictable nature of some pitching stats by reducing your risk. Less money spent on pitching equals less risked. This is not by any means a ratio that you need to stick with. In reality the value of players should be 50/50 since there are typically the same number of hitting and pitching categories.

Tommy Hanson Video

Stephen Strasburg vs. Clayton Kershaw

Over at The Hardball Times, Nick Fleder posted an article ranking his and two other writers' top 25 under age 25 Dynasty League Players. Several readers commented their surprise that all three writers had placed Stephen Strasburg ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The writer argued that Strasburg's upside was better than Kershaw's in the long term, and further suggesting that the 2011 season was as good as it would get for Kershaw. I wondered if this was true.

Nick Fleder:

Strasburg in my mind has higher upside that Kershaw. Yes, Clayton is incredible, but I doubt he’ll ever improve on his 2011 season, and he might regress a bit, where Strasburg might be able to pull several Kershaw 2011s, or potentially a better season. Higher K upside, similar WHIP upside, and as good a shot to put up 20 wins per year on the offensively-adept Nationals. I’ll back this up with some more numbers a little later. The case, I readily concede, can be made that Kershaw could be #1. Stanton, Harper, I’d argue vehemently, shouldn’t be in consideration for the top spot.

Ben Pritchett:

To tease us, the Nationals brought back Strasburg for a five-start stretch that saw him post a 9.0 strikeout-per-nine rate and two walks. That’s two walks, period! His FIP in this vacuum was an unbelievable 1.28. To go along with those ridiculous stats, he was also the best pitcher in the game from the moment he made start number one to the end of the 2011 season.

That combined with what I’ve seen as far as skills, pedigree, and scouting grade makes him the most valuable keeper prospect I’ve seen in years if not ever. I love Kershaw. I have him as my number one starter next year. I also think that Kershaw should outperform Strasburg in 2012. But as a “Keeper”, Strasburg will dominate this list, health-permitting, for 2013 and beyond.

Josh Shepardson:

I think we can all agree, both starters are incredibly desirable in keeper/dynasty formats. In general, I tend to slant toward hitters in these formats over pitchers, and in submitting my rankings to Nick, mentioned that it physically pained me to include three pitchers in the top 4. That said, those pitchers are tremendous.

With that in mind, if I’m going to start a dynasty league roster with a pitcher, I’m shooting the moon. Someone addressed Strasburg’s conditioning above, and that is an issue of the past, as another reader was quick to point out. As far as mechanics go, I’m beginning to believe mechanics experts may not know their… from a a hole in the ground. Obviously, it is probably better for a pitcher to have a low effort delivery than a high effort one. Beyond that, I’m starting to lean in the direction of some pitchers being built to pile up innings, and other not. So far, Kershaw has shown the skill and good fortune of remaining healthy to rack up innings pitched, and Strasburg has not. But, I don’t think that means there is no risk of Kershaw breaking down. Pitching is inherently bad for the shoulder/arm/elbow.

When both pitchers are healthy, there is no argument that Strasburg has been the better pitcher. Yes, he has just 7 starts under his belt, but in those seven starts he has been better in all three facets of controllable pitcher skills. His K/9 is nearly two full batters higher than Kershaw’s in his career, and more impressively, his K% is 6.6% better. Kershaw has made strides in both marks, but still lags behind Strasburg. Kershaw also trails Strasburg in walk rate, and ground ball rate. Kershaw had his best walk rate by a wide margin this year, but it was also his first year below 3.50 BB/9. Maybe he’ll sustain that, but maybe he won’t. Comparatively, Strasburg’s walk rate in his healthy rookie debut was 2.25 BB/9, and was better post Tommy John surgery at 0.75 BB/9 (which is not sustainable).

The potentially bigger gap could come in groundball rate. Prior to his injury, Strasburg sported a 47.8 percent groudball rate. Post surgery he had a flyball centric approach, so there are questions about where he’ll land on that spectrum. At this point in Kershaw’s career, though, it looks like his groundball rate is safe to project in the low-40 percent range (was up to 43.2 percent in 2011, a mark that was better than those in 2009 and 2010).

All-in-all, the total package favors Strasburg. To neglect to acknowledge there is a health risk attached to him would be wrong, but just how much greater is that risk that Kershaw? I’m not sure that can be quantified, plenty of pitchers have returned from TJ and not had further health issues. The biggest question for me was answered when he got back to the big leagues this past season.

Clayton Kershaw

Season	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2008	21	107.2	8.36	4.35	0.92	0.320	75.70%	48%	12%	4.26	4.08	3.91	1.4
2009	30	171	9.74	4.79	0.37	0.269	77.50%	39%	4%	2.79	3.08	3.85	4.1
2010	32	204.1	9.34	3.57	0.57	0.275	76.20%	40%	6%	2.91	3.12	3.64	4.7
2011	33	233.1	9.57	2.08	0.58	0.269	78.60%	43%	7%	2.28	2.47	2.84	6.8

Stephen Strasburg

Season	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2010	12	68	12.18	2.25	0.66	0.319	72.70%	48%	10%	2.91	2.08	2.04	2.6
2011	5	24	9	0.75	0	0.242	70.60%	38%	0%	1.5	1.28	2.43	1.1

It has been a long time since a pitcher has come along with as much build-up as Stephen Strasburg. By the time he left San Diego State University most baseballs fans (not to mention prospect gurus) were already drooling over his potential. He was the number one overall pick and his last minute signing by the Washington Nationals was considered a triumphant success for the organization and it's new general manager, Mike Rizzo.

Clayton Kershaw was the 7th overall pick of the 2006 Amateur Draft. After just two seasons in the minors, Kershaw was called up to the majors on May 25th of the 2008 season. He has never been anything but a huge success for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has improved in every season as a major leaguer going from promising prospect to Cy Young Award winner before his 24th birthday.

Kershaw is just a few months older than Strasburg but already has three full seasons and a Cy Young award to his credit. Winning the Cy Young does not necessarily make you the better pitcher in Major League Baseball or Fantasy Baseball but it is a major point of success. At essentially the same age as Kershaw, Strasburg has missed a year due to Tommy John Surgery and has a total of just 256 professional innings. Kershaw has over a thousand professional innings including 716 in the majors.

The National's promising ace is hurt in this debate by the small sample sizes in his performance. Strasburg has less than a hundred innings in the majors and although his 68 and 24 inning samples have been spectacular, he is far from the first pitcher to look great in such a small sample. At the moment we have no idea if Strasburg is durable enough to make it through an entire season in the major leagues with starts every fifth day. Kershaw has done this three times already, increasing his strength and durability each season while also improving his performance.

In the majors thus far Strasburg has 92 innings in 17 starts. He has strong performance indicators with an 11.35 K9, 1.86 BB9, 45 percent groundball rate, and a 2.14 xFIP. This stellar performance and the glowing scouting reports are what the THT writers are speculating on when they rank him ahead of Kershaw. If Strasburg could maintain numbers like that for 134 more innings he would have roughly Kershaw's 2011 season. But with the ebb and flow of a major league season, it is extremely hard to believe that the inexperienced Strasburg is ready to pitch at a Cy Young Award level for 200-plus innings.

Despite all this the question that needs to be answered is what will happen from this point forward. Kershaw has improved his IP, K9, BB9, GB%, and xFIP in each of the last three seasons and at just 23 years old is not yet considered in his peak performance years. Most pitchers his age are still in the minors. There is no reason to think that Kershaw has reached a plateau nor that he cannot continue to improve. In Kershaw we have a young left-handed ace that should continue to pitch at a Cy Young worthy level for many years assuming he can maintain his current durability.

Strasburg had a great college career and blew through the minors about as fast as it can be done if the pitcher's organization is serious about seeing him succeed at every level and the Nationals were. He sandwiched two great (but short) performances around an elbow injury and Tommy John Surgery. In those short stints, Strasburg was every bit as good as Kershaw was in his Cy Young season, maybe even better. His future depends on staying healthy and being able to make adjustments as great major league hitters learn his stuff. The odds of him staying healthy? I'll call it even. The odds of him making the necessary adjustments? Pretty damn good, I'd say.

Choosing between the two is largely a question of how much risk you enjoy taking with your fantasy team. Kershaw and Strasburg reached their current levels in different fashions but the end result is an ace starter (Kershaw) and a potential ace (Strasburg). They can both probably pitch at a Cy Young level for several years if they stay healthy. The risk in this regard is far higher with Strasburg than with Kershaw. In my opinion picking Strasburg over Kershaw at this point is mostly about wanting to have that huge name achieve greatness for the first time on your roster. It is the same thing that makes some owners over reach for rookies, Japanese imports and whatever hot name comes along. The difference in talent is not as huge as the hype might lead you to believe. The pick here is obviously Kershaw, this is based almost entirely on avoiding risk.

2012: Michael Cuddyer Joins the Rockies

Michael Cuddyer is one of those baseball players that is really easy to love. He always seems genuinely happy to be at the ballpark. He works hard. He does not care which position he is asked to play. He gets that when you make millions a year to play a game invented for kids you really have little to complain about.

As a fantasy contributor, Cuddyer has been solid but rarely spectacular. He has spent his entire career until now with the Minnesota Twins. In Minnesota he has typically hit for a decent batting average and 15-20 homeruns. But what may not be obvious is how Target Field has restrained his homerun power. In 2010 Target Field (according to ESPN Park Factors) reduced homeruns by nearly 26 percent. It was not as drastic in 2011 but Target Field still rated as a tough park to hit homeruns.

Cuddyer's move to Coors Field should be nothing but good news to Fantasy Owners. Coors Field is still one of the best hitter's park in the sport. Boosting homers by over 35 percent in 2011. The combination of leaving Target Field and playing his home games in Colorado should push Cuddyer's expected homerun projection from the 15-20 range, firmly into the 25-30 homer range.

For now Cuddyer is expected to man right field for the Rockies. But the Rockies could easily find themselves needing him at third base. For the moment they will count on Casey Blake at third base. Blake experienced three trips to the disabled list in 2011, primarily due to a bad back. The chance that he will be able to play full time is small. Qualifying at 3B would only boost Cuddyer's value even further.

Merry Christmas everyone, I hope Santa was good to you.

2012 Sleepers - A First Baseman for the Rays

For Yankee fans, we are pretty far into the off-season. We're used to out team striking quickly and grabbing the best guys available. Or at the very least we're exhausted by rumors that we're going to get this guy or that guy. Instead the Yankees are patiently waiting out the market and could go into the 2012 season with pretty much the same team they played with in 2011. For fans of the Yankees this is unusual. For fans of the Tampa Bay Rays this is par for the course.

The Rays having one of the smaller payroll budgets in the game, rarely jump early on free agents. They exercise patience and wait until potential bargains develop. This year they might be interested in an outfielder, a designated hitter, middle infielder and first baseman. They could very well re-sign Carlos Pena. But for now they wait and have inexperienced names penciled in at the top of the depth chart at several positions. The most interesting one in my opinion is Russ Canzler.

Canzler is interesting for several reasons. I like that he fits the developing trend of allowing older minor leaguers - sometimes barely considered prospects - to have a chance to make major league rosters. A lot of organizations will dismiss a certain player because he doesn't fit their perception of what a player at his position should look like. We've seen it a hundred times, look at short, slight players like Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, who were not always appreciated for their skills as prospects. Canzler does not have an odd body type, he's six feet and two inches tall and weighs over 200 pounds, so he looks like a DH or first baseman. The problem with this guys is that despite being a pretty good hitter, he doesn't hit like the prototypical first baseman.

Some numbers:

Season	Team	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2006	Cubs (A-)	7.10%	22.50%	0.264	0.319	0.543	0.279	0.291	0.382	137
2007	Cubs (A)	7.00%	17.50%	0.270	0.321	0.376	0.107	0.316	0.318	97
2008	Cubs (A+)	7.50%	19.40%	0.273	0.327	0.463	0.190	0.31	0.356	120
2009	Cubs (A+)	6.50%	22.20%	0.270	0.315	0.430	0.160	0.333	0.345	116
2009	Cubs (AA)	11.60%	15.40%	0.258	0.346	0.399	0.142	0.289	0.337	105
2010	Cubs (AA)	11.20%	23.10%	0.287	0.372	0.566	0.279	0.332	0.412	151
2011	Rays (AAA)	12.20%	23.50%	0.314	0.401	0.530	0.215	0.396	0.410	157
2011	Rays	20.00%	20.00%	0.333	0.400	0.333	0.000	0.333	0.316	101

You can see that Canzler has a history of hitting for decent batting averages (much better than decent the last two seasons) with solid power numbers. Looking at these numbers for a still relatively young first baseman, you would probably give him a shot on your fantasy team and as a Rays fan you'd probably be pretty happy to have a .275/.350/.500 line from your rookie first baseman. But that enthusiasm dies off a bit when you learn he has not hit more than 21 homers at any level or in any season. But should it?

For fantasy owners, you might not want him as your primary first baseman, but with third base a weakness in MLB at the moment and first base not quite as deep as it once was, Canzler would be an excellent corner on a lot of teams, especially in AL-Only Leagues. For the Rays it seems like a slam dunk cinch, they would risk almost nothing and he might fill a need for them inexpensively. How long have the Rays been looking for a long-term solution at first base? So if they fail to move one of they pitchers or prospects for a first baseman (they're rumored t be looking at Anthony Rizzo of the Padres) they could decide to give Canzler a try. It just might be to the benefit of fantasy owners.

The New Yoenis Cespedes Baseball Video

Even if you need to skip ahead, don't miss the ending.

Yoenis Cespedes Encore from Baseball2011DR on Vimeo.

Check Out This Article on Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes has quickly become a player in which fantasy owners have a great interest. He has flash and pizazz. All of those traits that make us want to be First. But while most of us have watched his scouting/promotional video, few of us have received any real scouting reports. For that reason I'd like to point you to Derek Carty's recent article on the Baseball Prospectus site.

In talking with scouts, everyone is in agreement that Cespedes is a physical freak; however, some made mention that this hasn’t always been the case. As recently as the World Baseball Classic in 2009, Cespedes was said to have been almost a completely different player. A few scouts I spoke with hadn’t seen him since the WBC and didn’t feel it was even worth it to relay their impressions because Cespedes has changed so dramatically. Given his striking change in stature and tools, one scout who has seen Cespedes recently actually speculated that Cespedes could be on HGH. To be clear, this was pure speculation and not grounded in any actual knowledge or evidence, but it is worth passing along as Cespedes is sure to get tested under MLB’s new policies and would need to stop, which may or may not affect his tools and performance.

The article has a ton of interesting stuff that you want to read as a potential Cespedes owner.