Blog Wars 2013 Mixed 5x5 League...Let's Root for the Home Team!

In hopes that late is in fact better than never, I present herewith my Advanced Fantasy Baseball roster from the Blog Wars expert league. As I have mentioned time and again, I greatly prefer auctions to drafts, but a draft was the format selected for this league, so my duty was to "improvise, adapt and overcome".  As it turns out, things went fairly well.

By a stroke of bad luck, I drew the #7 pick, a universally despised position.  At #7, you will not get one of the three "premier" first round players.  You are not close enough to the wheel to have the advantage of having two picks close together. But, as with most things in life, you can make it work to your advantage.

The first round went pretty much by the book.  Ryan Braun fell first followed by the Triple Crown winner and then the Boy Wonder, Mike Trout.  Of the three, Cabrera would have been my pick.  Braun may put up better numbers, but it is no secret that MLB is on his case for PED issues.  Whether he will be suspended for some time during the year is yet to be seen.  I also worry a little about the psychological pressures he must be under as the target of a massive investigation.  As for Trout, his 2012 season was truly one for the ages.  But, take a long breath and tell me what should make us believe he can do it in his second big league season.  He may do as well, or even better, but he lacks a track record...something Miggy clearly has.

The next three picks were Kemp, Cano, and McCutchen, in that order.  None of these selections give me any particular heartburn, but with high first round picks one should maximize predictable value, not upside.  With Kemp, whose talent is unquestioned, there are some nagging health issues.  Robinson Cano has a history of monster seasons, but it takes him 650 at-bats a year to pull this off.  With so many Yankee stars on the DL or ready for retirement, one must wonder who there will be to drive Cano in, or who will be on base for him to drive in.  Andrew McCutchen is clearly a fantastic young player, but one who has not yet reached his peak or established a level of consistency.  Had this been a keeper league, though, McCutchen would have been my pick.  As it is, I probably would have gone with Cano and crossed my fingers for his mates to get healthier.

That left it up to me at #7.  Generally, the first round means find the best player available.  In addition, I planned to grab power, batting average, and reliability.  I found all those things in a very large package named Prince Fielder.  This meant passing up on numerous legitimate first round candidates, including Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez, both of whom I love, but both of whom present some health issues.  Ditto Albert Pujols and his knee.  As for Giancoarlo Stanton, I was bothered by the quality of the hitters around him.  When your sole protection is Placido Polanco, you have some issues.  Justin Upton and Jose Reyes would have been fine picks as well, but I reminded myself that my first rounder had to be a person with good reliability as well as mammoth power and an excellent average.  Welcome to the team, big man!

Three big name pitchers went early in the second round...Strasburg, Verlander and Kershaw.  I was a little surprised that the three went 3, 4 and 5 in the second round.  Kershaw I can see as a second round pick, but Verlander was, IMO, overdrafted here.  As for Strasburg, my thinking was similar to that regarding Trout - show me you can do it for a full season, twice.

So for my second round selection, I went with Dustin Pedroia.  He's not a true masher, like Fielder, but he does have 20-25 home run power.  There were two more factors I considered here. One is that second base is a very thin position at the top.  The other is that Boston may run more this year than we've seen in a while, due to the tendencies of their new manager, John Farrell.  Pedroia will be on base plenty, and has the wheels to pick up 30 or more steals if he gets the green light.  Plus he gives me more plus average, which may be a scarce commodity this year.

Before my third round pick, four more top line starters would fall, including Price, King Felix, Hamels and Matt Cain.  It became abundantly clear to me that I would not get one of the top starting pitchers if I didn't take one in the third round.  Available were Cliff Lee, Yu Darvish, Bumgarner, Weaver and Dickey.  But I was still looking for reliable power, and it came in the form of Yoenis Cespedes, a hitter I believe could turn in an MVP season. No, he does not meet my test of "do it twice", but he is a hitter we have watched for years in his native country, and there are few who doubt this guy's ability to rake.

The fourth round presented a difficult decision.  I had not planned to take pitching early, yet I had seen all the top starters fly off the board.  I was also mindful of the fact that "closer" has even less job security than "NFL placekicker". 

A really good closer, in addition to providing you help in the Saves category can, essentially, turn an average starting  pitcher into a Cy Young candidate.  By that I mean that in addition to saves a really good closer will give you a ton of Ks, an ERA around 2.00 or less, and a Whip of 1.00 or less, as well as a handful of wins.  Add those numbers to an average starter, and his resulting numbers are outstanding.  By contrast, some closers will not only fail to help you in ERA and Whip, but can actually hurt you there.  And, they can lose their jobs in the process.

In my opinion, the closer who provides the best projected stats and job security is Craig Kimbrel.  He is the only closer I would consider taking early in a draft (with the possible exception of Aroldis the Red).  Plus, given the fact that so many starters had already been taken, I figured that I had to get Kimbrel right then if I expected to roster him at all.  So, welcome Craig Kimbrel.  Of course, the next owner in line took Chapman. He told me he would have taken Kimbrel had I not done so.

The next four rounds were used to fill out my infield and add a couple of outfielders. Some players I believed were being undervalued, and should have strong years in 2013 are Shane Victorino, Martin Prado, Erik Aybar and Melky Cabrera.  Melky may have been a reach, but I think there's a good chance he'll have a big year, unless he was nothing more than a product of PEDs.

I took my first starting pitcher in Round 9, and the honor went to Ian Kennedy.  He was the 30th starting pitcher taken, and a bit of a bargain as the 127th player overall.

The rest of the draft consisted of picking the best offensive players available. I tried picking as many pitchers with high upside as possible.  Among the hitters I was very happy to roster were Chris Davis in Round 10 and Dexter Fowler in Round 13.  Happily, each of them has gotten off to a hot start.  They will undoubtedly slow down some, but I think they are both guys who will exceed expectations and deliver big in 2013.

My other hitters were Yonder Alonso, Aaron Hicks, Hiroyuki Nakajima, Carlos Ruiz, Alex Avila and Rajai Davis. Nakajima appears to be a miss, but I think the Athletics would like to get him back up and playing ASAP in order to justify their investment in him.

I chose relievers Casey Janssen, Ryan Cook and David Hernandez to join Kimbrel in my bullpen.  I think Janssen is being undervalued this year, mostly by people who think Santos will claim the job.  Janssen has the stuff to close.  As for Cook and Hernandez, they should put up stellar qualitative stats, and could work themselves into position to garner a few saves.

The starters I picked (including my four reserve round picks) were selected primarily on the basis of upside potential.  They were as follows:

Kyle Lohse (signed the morning of our draft),
Mike Fiers,
Chris Capuano,
Wandy Rodriguez,
Dan Straily,
Wade Davis, and
Brett Myers. 

I think each of these guys have the potential to turn in solid seasons.  Davis and Myers have looked pretty bad so far, but fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.  And while they won't put me on top of any of the pitching categories, I'm counting on my offense to make up the difference or at least give me someone to trade for another starting pitcher.  In the meanwhile, I will be diligently working the waiver wire.  Already, I have placed Nakajima on the DL and purchased Maicer Izturis as a free agent.  I also added some outfield depth with Chris Heisey, dropping David Hernandez in the process.  With some luck and good health, this lineup should produce 1100 runs, 250 homers, 1000 ribbies, 200 stolen bases, all with a .282 average.  On the pitching side, I'm projecting 85-90 wins, 85-90 saves, and around 1150 Ks.  ERA and Whip may  be an issue.  Right now I'm thinking 3.65 and 1.23, which won't place very well in this league.

So there it is...the Advanced Fantasy Baseball entry in the Blog Wars league.  I'll be posting progress reports from time to time.  In the meantime, any comments, critiques, or suggestions will be appreciated.

Thanks, and have fun!

Early FAAB Bids - Lalli, Gillespie, Prince, Hefner, Russell

As always, this early in the season the temptation to be more active than necessary strikes most of us.This is especially true if your team starts slow. But stay pateint. Replace your injured players or players sent back to the minors and stay the course on the players you drafted with faith not all that long ago.

Bats:

Connor Gillespie 3B Chicago White Sox - He is not expected to get a ton of at-bats but if he continues to hit as he did in his first start that could change. Gillespie was a former prospect of the San Francisco Giants that held more potential than results but scouts did like him. He is still young enough to have an impact. Owners with open bench spots could do a lot worse. Minimal Bid

Blake Lalli C/1B Milwaukee Brewers - Called up with Narveson's placement on the disabled list and the transfer of Corey Hart to the 60-Day Disabled List. Hart is now out until at least May 30th which is a lot later than many of us expected. Lalli had a solid Spring Traing batting .286 for the Brewers. He consistently hit for high batting averages in the lower minors but has little homerun power. He has struggled to hit at double-A and Triple-A and is unlikely to be a boon to mixed league rosters. He may be of minimal use in deep NL-only leagues especially in two catcher leagues. Minimal Bid

Martin Maldonado C Milwaukee Brewers - Has been playing first base but has struggled to handle the position defensively. He was not much of a hitter in the minor leagues but was quite effective at the plate when Jonathan LuCroy was injured during the 2012 season. As a second catcher in NL leagues he could be a fair pick. Minimal Bid

Jayson Nix 2B, SS, 3B New York Yankees - Nix has started the season strongly and the injury to Eduardo Nunez only helps him gain playing time. He is only a fair hitter without great power or speed. His versatile glove and decent bat does come in handy on deep AL-only rosters. Minimal Bid

Josh Prince SS/OF Milwaukee Brewers - He was not a great prospect but gained a few fans by batting .404 with 14 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 25 games in the Arizona Fall League. Originally a shortstop the Brewers have decided to convert him into a Jerry Hairston-like utility player who plays all over the field. His bat is ultimately mediocre but he has the speed to steal 40-plus bases if he were to get a full season of at-bats. His versatility makes him a useful player to have on deep NL rosters. Minimal Bid

Pitchers:

Kevin Correia SP Minnesota Twins - You will not gain any strikeouts but Correia is a competent pitcher that should be effective in front of the Twins strong defense and playing in their large pitching oriented park. He is better owned by owners that can move him on and off their active rosters. Minimal Bid

Jeremy Hefner SP New York Mets - Hefner is not a strikeout pitcher but has pretty good control and plays in a park and for a team that suits his skills very well. He should be a decent starter for owners that can move starters on and off their rosters. He becomes more of a risk in better hitting environments. Minimal Bid

Joe Ortiz RP Texas and Robbie Ross RP Texas - Ortiz and Ross are both great players to stash on a large bench.  They have both strikeouts and saves potential. Ross is more likely to start in a pinch than Ortiz Minimal Bid

James Russell RP Chicago Cubs - Cubs manager Dale Sveum named Russell a potential closer if Carlos Marmol and Kyuji Fujukawa both continue to struggle. That alone makes him worth a minimal bid. Russell is not a great pitcher but has been a reasonably effective middle reliever. Minimal Bid

Joe Saunders SP Seattle Mariners - The stat guys do not like Saunders but he continues to be an effective major league starter. The strikeouts will not be big but he should also provide solid help particularly to AL-only rosters.

American League Closer Update: Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have signed their former cloiser, Jose Valverde to a minor league deal according to a series of tweets from Patrick Reusse of ESPN Radio.

Patrick Reusse ‏@1500ESPN_Reusse 1h

Jose Valverde has signed a minor-league contract w/ the Tigers.

Patrick Reusse ‏@1500ESPN_Reusse 1h

Dave Dombrowski said Papa Grande will do some throwing in Lakeland, then (presumably) join Class AAA Toledo. No timetable.

The Tigers expected Hector Rondon to become their closer prior to Spring Training but Rondon proved not ready for the job and was sent to the minors. The Tigers opened the season with a closer committee but it has not been a huge success thus far. Benoit has failed in both his save attempts and the games had to be saved by Phil Coke who Jim Leyland has insisted he prefers in a lefty relief role and not as the closer. Obviously, Valverde is now next in line for saves.

Detroit Tigers

Short-Term Closer - Phil Coke

Closer-In-Waiting - Jose Valverde

Future Closer – Bruce Rondon

Next – Joaquin Benoit

Sleeper – Al Alburquerque

Super-Sleeper – Octavio Dotel

2013 Fantasy Baseball Opening Day

Happy Opening Day!

Many of us will watch games today without knowing the composition of our fantasy teams thanks to an inconveniently scheduled Easter holiday. I really do not like drafting after the season starts because I think it warps auction prices. Players who start fast go for more and slow starters get less. That annoys me.

I love that a couple of teams have chosen to bring some of their best prospects to the major leagues without trying to weasel an extra year of service by forcing them to spend another month in the minors. If they're ready let them play.

• Jackie Bradley Jr. will man left field for the Boston Red Sox at least until David Ortiz comes off the disabled list. I think he'll stick around if he is a productive part of the lineup. Bradley should hit for average with average power and good speed - 10-15 homers and 15-20 stolen bases is a decent possibility. He could be a 20/20 as he nears his prime.
• The Marlins have placed Jose Fernandez, a former Cuban defector, into their starting pitcher rotation. Fernandez has been praised for his work ethic and leadership on the field. He does not have much experience in the minors but many scouts seem to think he can handle it. The weird part is that he spent so little time in major league camp but made the team anyway. Fernandez is an ace in the making and a less hyped version of Dylan Bundy (without the strange diet and arm stiffness).
• Evan Gattis will be on the Braves bench and is expected to get some time on the outfield corners and as an emergency catcher. Peter Gammons compares him to Josh Willingham and he does have that sort of power. The playing time is not there but he might make a decent second catcher if you're a fan of the one dollar catcher idea.
• The Brewers are loaded with rookies: shortstop Jean Segura, pitchers Mike Fiers, Alfredo Figaro, Jim Henderson and Wily Peralta, catcher Martin Maldonado and outfielders Khris Davis and Logan Schafer. Segura is the most relevant to fantasy owners. He should provide owners with late round speed for their middle infield spot.

Big Leagues Magazine is running a subscription special where for the price of a one month subscription you can get three months! Big Leagues Magazine features the work of many of the best and most dedicated baseball writers on the internet. There are regular interviews with industry big shots and top prospects. The fantasy section is constantly growing and features yous truly. This is like the best of Baseball America, Sports Illustrated and your favorite fantasy mag put together. The April 1st issue just went line so now is the perfect time. Please check it out and the tons of free content on the same website.

Lots of folks were shocked to hear that the Rangers had signed shortstop Elvis Andrus to an eight-year extension to his contract worth 120 million dollars. The Rangers have Jurickson Profar, for whom various media analysts keep expecting the Rangers to open a spot via trade. The Rangers have refused to part with any part of their core and Andrus is part of that. People forget that Andrus will be just 24-years old this season. He is not even close to what he could be at the peak of his powers. He he has power potential that he has yet to realize because he is still slapping most pitches into the dirt to take advantage of his speed. But the Rangers understand and I assume will continue to work with him on becoming the best player he can be.

 Have fun today!

Building A Fantasy Baseball Plan

This is an excerpt of an article I wrote for the April 1st issue of Big Leagues Magazine. You should subcribe there is a ton of great fantasy info in every issue.

Your keepers should always fit your overall plans. If they do not fit your plan, you may want to come up with a new plan (or at least get trading for players that do fit). You should always rank your potential keepers in the order in which they can help your winning strategy. If you plan to focus on high average power hitters to complement your cheap (but great) starting pitching, an at value Prince Fielder is probably a better keeper than your slightly underpriced Garrett Jones. You want your keepers to work with your strengths not against them. Your great starting pitching is less effective if you also keep your one dollar Carlos Zambrano because he used to be your favorite Cubs starter.

Now, just because your primary strategy is built on high average power hitters and great starting pitchers, that does not mean that you should toss back your $10 Jean Segura. Segura may not hit for power or much of a batting average but his indicators suggest his average will not be a negative and his steals potential may make it much easier for you to concentrate on the power hitters during the draft. The same cannot be said about your $15 Everth Cabrera who may steal a ton of bases but has the potential to pull down your team batting average. It may be possible to account for this drag but a better idea is to trade for a player or players that better fit your strategy. Cabrera for $15 Andrelton Simmons may cost you five bucks but also save you the hassle of trying to balance a bad BA player before the draft even starts. 

You also need to study the rosters of your competitors. You should have your best guess at the keepers on the other teams before deciding on yours. This is important because keepers can take a huge chunk out of the potential player pool on several levels. You could find that certain positions are going to be extremely scarce on Draft Day. If ten of the 15 potential closers in your 12-team league are held by the owners of just six teams buying a closer at the draft could get expensive. That might make your $18 Rafael Betancourt a better keeper than you originally supposed. The players you should be the players that will help you win. Values and profits are very important but the way they fit into your draft strategy is just as important.

 

2013 All Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Team

The annual All-Sleeper Team has arrived. This report has taken many forms but as always it is jam packed with names for your consideration. There are at least three names listed at every position. If you like this article please share it (with strangers if not your league mates).

Catchers

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners

Here are some stats for Montero that you may have missed - he hit 310/343/498 last year when playing behind the plate; on the road he batted .295/.330/.438 with nine homeruns in 258 at-bats; and his HR/FB was a healthy 13.4 percent on the road. Did you know that in 2012 Safeco Field tended to reduce right-handed power by 30 percent? Runs were reduced by 22 percent. The Seattle Mariners are attempting to move their park factors closer to neutral in 2013 by bringing in the outfield walls. Safeco will still be a tough park for hitters but it should be a little less intimidating this season. Montero still has superstar potential.

UPSIDE: .280/.330/.480 with 25 homeruns

Erik Kratz, Philadelphia Phillies

Erik Kratz has been around for a while. He has a great reputation as a defensive catcher. Supposedly, pitchers love to throw to him. His bat looks better than the average catcher and his power looks like it could be around league average if not a bit better. Last season in the minors he hit .266/.326/.540 with eight homers in 141 plate appearances. He was called up to the Phillies and received 157 PA in which he batted .248/.306/.504 with nine homeruns. He was scheduled to spend 2013 in the majors as a back-up but thanks to Carlos Ruiz getting himself suspended, Kratz figures to get an extra month of starter at-bats. He should be more than worth his purchase price.

UPSIDE: 350abs, .250/.310/.460 with 15 homers and a few stolen bases.

Others to Consider: Jason Castro, Houston Astros; John Jaso, Oakland Athletics; Rob Brantley, Miami Marlins

First Basemen

Ike Davis, New York Mets

Davis began the 2012 season recovering from the Valley Fever which can severely weaken people for long periods. Davis chose not to complain about it but after the season finally admitted that he was not right the first few months of the season. His second half was a better indication of what Davis can do. He batted .255/.346/.542 with 20 homers in his last 251 at-bats. Davis has seen more than his fair share of injury and illness in his short career. It is possible that some of your league mates will perceive him as injury prone or even as a mediocre hitter. Do not believe it. Davis has very good power and has the patience and discipline to hit for a solid batting average (a skill becoming more rare). 

UPSIDE: .275/.365/.500 with 35-plus homeruns

Others to Consider: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants; Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins;

Second Basemen

2B Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

 In the minor leagues Matt Carpenter has produced numbers that would mediocre at best coming from your first baseman or outfielder. But at second base (particularly in NL-only leagues) he would be a very solid fantasy option. He hits for a solid to good batting average with a strong on-base percentage driven by above average walk rates and improving contact skills. He has average or maybe slightly better power and should safely hit in the 10-15  homer range every season with more a clear possibility as he gains experience. He does not have great speed but will steal the occasional base given the opportunity. Best of all, manager Mike Matheny seems to like him and has projected him as a potential leadoff hitter. He only qualifies at the corners for now in most leagues but should be eligible at second within the first week or so of the regular season.

UPSIDE: .290/.370/.470 with 15-18 homeruns and a few stolen bases and a ton of runs scored

Others to Consider: Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners; Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox

Third Basemen

3B Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics

Donaldson’s numbers as a major leaguer look mediocre overall. It would be pretty easy for a fantasy owner to overlook a player with a .232/.280/.386 slash in 328 plate appearances. However, he hit a very solid .290/.356/.489 with eight homers, 26 RBI and three steals in 47 games after returning from a stint at Triple-A. Donaldson is just 27-years old and general manager Billy Beane has declared that Donaldson will be the starter at third base in 2013. While 47 games is just a small sample of Donaldson’s season – his line at AAA Sacramento was .335/.402/.598 with 13 homers and five steals in 234 plate appearances. Donaldson has BABIP issues. Last season in the majors it was just .278 (far below average) and an indication that his poor start to the season was at least to some degree bad luck. 

UPSIDE: .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 homers and 5-10 stolen bases.

Others to Consider: Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays; Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians; 

Shortstops

SS Cliff Pennington, Arizona Diamondbacks

Cliff Pennington is not popular among fantasy owners. He does not hit for much power and his batting average at times has been pathetic. So why is he listed here? He has skills and tools that indicate he has not reached his full potential just yet. Pennington has tremendous speed and solid base stealing skills. He has solid patience at the plate and makes decent contact. Now he is moving from Oakland's tough pitcher centric park into the Diamondback's Chase Field which favors hitters. He has been working with Diamondbacks hitting coach Don Baylor on shortening his swing. If his BABIP bounces back from his career low .259 in 2012 towards his career levels he could have a very nice season at a weak fantasy position.

UPSIDE: .275/.350/.425 with 10-12 homers and 25-plus stolen bases and a truckload of runs if he leads off.

Others to Consider: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles; Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers

Outfielders

OF/1B Chris Carter, Houston Astros

Chris Carter is seen as a player with tremendous power who is not a talented enough hitter to be a star in the Major Leagues. In actuality, 2012 was Carter’s first extended opportunity to play in the major leagues. He does in fact have massive power but he also has more patience at the plate than his K-rate would seem to indicate. His strikeout rates were not so bad in the minors and he even showed some ability to hit for average. He is moving from one of the better pitchers’ parks in baseball to one that actually boosts right-handed power stats. In 2013 you could see a decent batting average with gargantuan power (nice to have with overall power numbers dropping).

UPSIDE: .270/.370/.550 with 30-plus homers and a few stolen bases

OF Jose Tabata OF Pittsburgh Pirates

How good does Travis Snider have to be to keep Tabata on the bench all season. Admittedly Tabata has fallen off the last few years. But he was once lauded for his power potential and showed a knack for base stealing. He kicked off Spring Training looking determined to win back at least a share of the job starting in the outfield corners. At this point it looks like Snider will start but Tabata has made the team. His price should be ultra low and Snider has not been much better than Tabata as a major leaguer. He makes an excellent flyer in deep NL-only leagues or in deep mixed leagues with bench spots. 

UPSIDE: .275/.340/.400 with ten homers and 20-plus stolen bases

OF Jordany Valdespin, New York Mets

His Spring Training performance has probably jacked up his price on those of us with post-Easter drafts this year. The Mets have no established outfielders on their roster coming into the 2013 season. This has provided Valdespin and others with a fantastic opportunity for Major League playing time. He is not a patient hitter but makes excellent contact. He has the power to hit 15-20 homers and the speed to steal 20-plus bases in a full season. 

UPSIDE: .280/.340/.440 with 15-plus homers and 20-plus stolen bases

OF J.D. Martinez, Houston Astros

He is a tough pick since he will begin the season in the minor leagues. With a career batting line of just .252/.313/.375 it would be easy to dismiss Martinez as just another mediocre Astros outfielder. You would be missing out on a player with huge breakout potential. In the 603 at-bats that led to the line above Martinez hit 17 homeruns and collected 90 RBI. It becomes even more encouraging when you know his career minor league batting line was .334/.397/.532 in over 1200 minor league at-bats. He certainly has no obstacles to consistent playing time. Special thanks should go to my friend Dave McKay of thefantasysportsbrain.com who likes him even more than me. 

UPSIDE: .300/.360/.450 15-20 homeruns and the odd stolen base

OF Andy Dirks, Detroit Tigers

It would be easy to dismiss Dirks as a BABIP fluke and pass on him during fantasy drafts. That might be a mistake. Dirks has a track record of high BABIP and high batting averages in the minors. Dirks is a strong contact hitter with some patience at the plate. He swings at too many pitches out of the zone but makes much better than average contact. He is not a power hitter but with an uptick to his plate discipline he could hit for average power. His Achilles issue kept his decent speed under wraps but Dirks has the skills to steal bases. There is some talk of Dirks platooning with Avisail Garcia. That seems unlikely but even if true; Dirks would be on the strong side of it.

UPSIDE: .300/.350/.450 with 15-20 homeruns and 10-15 steals

Others to Consider: Colin Cowgill, New York Mets; Gerardo Parra, Arizona Diamondbacks; Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals; Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels; Nolan Reimold, Baltimore Orioles

Middle Infielders

MI Eric Young, Jr., Colorado Rockies

Eric Young has been neglected by the Rockies for a long time. He has awesome stolen base potential. He makes excellent contact and has shown patience at the plate. He should hit for average if given consistent at-bats and new manager Walt Weiss seems determined to make better use of Young. He only qualifies at outfield in most leagues at this point but could see time all over the field. He came up as a second baseman. 

UPSIDE: .290/.350/.425 with 40-plus steals and a few homers

Others to Consider: Luis Cruz, Los Angeles Dodgers; Eduardo Nunez, New York Yankees

Corner Infielders

3B Matt Dominguez, Houston Astros

His strength as a Marlins prospect was his excellent glove. Scouts believed in the potential in his bat but there was very little statistical evidence that he could hit. Last year he began to work on his swing with coaches and changing his hand position to create less movement and a shorter swing path. The results have been promising. At his present ADP he will cost nothing so the risk is minimal. The payoff could be pretty good especially relative to his cost.

UPSIDE: .290/.330/.450 with 15-plus homers

Others to Consider: Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners; Brett Wallace, Houston Astros

Designated Hitters

DH Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays

After his stint in the minor leagues Lind was an above average player in every remaining month of the season. Health is obviously the largest obstacle between Lind and a full season of statistics worthy of a major league first baseman. In an off- season where the Blue Jays have filled every hole on the roster and added a ton of depth, they have done nothing to indicate they have lost faith in their first baseman (well, besides move him to designated hitter). See my article for an expanded look at Adam Lind.

UPSIDE: .280/.350/.500 with 30 homers

Others to Consider: Jeff Keppinger, Chicago White Sox; Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers

SP Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

Not every pitcher develops as quickly as Stephen Strasburg. Justin Verlander took a few years to put it together. The same is true with Cole Hamels and David Price. Scherzer showed many signs of reaching his incredible potential during the 2012 season. His K9 took a big jump supported by a similar jump in his swinging strike rate. His solid control and strikeouts limit the damage down by his less than ideal HR9. 

UPSIDE: 20 wins, 3.50 ERA and 250 strikeouts

SP Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

The fraying in his shoulder will keep a lot of owners away from Jaime Garcia. It will also bring his price way down, possibly into the lower single digits. That provides you with an opportunity to purchase a very talented pitcher on the cheap. Garcia has a great swinging strike rate with a solid K9 that should improve. He has good control and a nice groundball rate. He plays for a very good Cardinals team with a nice defense.  For what should be a very small investment you could win big. Garcia is already throwing and will face hitters today (Saturday, Feb. 16^th). 

UPSIDE: 15 wins and an ERA< 3.50

SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees

The mini-Rocket has not reached the once lofty heights the Yankees were hoping he would. He has been solid and flashed some of the greatest but has not been able to sustain it for any great length of time. In 2012 his swinging strike rate jumped back up and his K9 jumped with it. With some regression to his HR/FB, Hughes could have a big season in 2013 leading into his first shot at free agency. 

UPSIDE: 15 wins and an ERA < 4.00

SP Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Kendrick has been nothing if not inconsistent in his time spent as a major league pitcher but has usually posted acceptable ERAs and WHIPs. But his strikeout rates have left much to be desired. He won't be confused with Stephen Strasburg anytime soon but thanks to a change in his pitch usage he seems to have hit on the key to greater dominance. He has reduced his use of the cutter in favor of his 2-seam fastball (a sinker) and his change-up. The result was a K9 over 6.0 for the season and approaching 7.0 K9 in the second half. If the improved strikeout rate sticks with his control (2.60 career BB9) and strong groundball rate (45.8 career GB percentage) he could be a huge breakout pitcher this season.   

UPSIDE: 12-plus wins and an ERA < 4.00

SP Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers

Many forget that Porcello is still just 24-years old. He spent very little time in the minors and has been forced to develop his skills on the major league stage. Given the way he has been thrown to the metaphorical wolves, Porcello has done quite well. The perception of Porcello is no doubt as an average or perhaps slightly above average starting pitcher. What is not as obvious to most observers is how much the Tigers awful defensive infield hurts Porcello. Porcello is a groundball pitcher (52.3 career GB percentage) and defense matters to him a great deal. His velocity has been on the rise and he now pitches in the low to mid 90’s. His strikeouts have been lower than fantasy owners would like to see but his K9 has seen small increases the last two seasons and his swinging strike rate has also risen to nearly average. If his slider had been more effective in 2012 it may have gotten all the way there. He has been emphasizing his curveball as an alternative to the slider this spring with great results. This is a pitcher who could explode on the scene if traded to a team with an effective infield defense (the Orioles would be a great spot for him).

UPSIDE: 15 wins and an ERA < 3.75

Others to Consider: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians; Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles; Jacob Turner, Miami Marlins; Erasmo Ramirez, Seattle Mariners; David Phelps, New York Yankees

Relievers

MR Christian Garcia RHP Washington Nationals

He will be a bit late to start the 2013 season but in keeper leagues that should not be a major problem. His late arrival will also reduce his already low cost. Garcia was a top prospect of the New York Yankees but a series of elbow problems prevented him from pitching much and eventually robbed him of his stellar stuff. After two Tommy John Surgeries and a third procedure to remove bone chips, the Nationals picked him up and placed him in the bullpen. His high nineties stuff was back and his hammer curve was back and his change-up is solid. Saves are probably not in his near future but stranger things have happened.

UPSIDE: 65 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10K9, 3.00BB9,  

MR Sean Doolittle LHP Oakland Athletics

The one pitcher that you should be looking for in the Athletics bullpen is Sean Doolittle. He was drafted with the 41st overall pick as a first baseman but knee injuries almost ended his career. The A’s converted him to pitching and rushed him through the system in 2012. From Class A to the Major Leagues - 17 games, 26 innings, 1.04 earned run average, 50 strikeouts, 8 walks. He has a very deceptive delivery and a blazing mid-90s fastball. He could stabilize the A’s closer position for several years.

UPSIDE: 20 saves with a ridiculous K9

MR Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals

Herrera has it all. He has the strikeout rate, excellent control and a great ground ball rate.Herrera is good enough to be worth drafting in deeper leagues even without the possibility of saves.If the Royals regain faith in Herrera's health they could potentially place him back in a starting role where he would have frontline pitcher stuff.

UPSIDE: Superb ratios with 15-plus saves and 80-plus strikeouts

Others to Consider: Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays; J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds; Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox

2013 Closer Update: Atlanta Braves

Johnny Venters has a sprain in his elbow and is likely to start the season on the disabled list. As if this was not bad enough news for Braves fans, Jordan Walden, who would seem the most likely candidate to replace Venters as next-in-line to Craig Kimbrel, has been dealing with abulging disc in his back and is also questionable to start the season on the 25-man roster. This makes Eric O'Flaherty the primary set-up man for a while. Kimbrel is still a safe bet as the closer but the Braves bullpen beyond him is in a period of instability.

Atlanta Braves

Closer – Craig Kimbrel

  Disabled – Johnny Venters

  Disabled – Jordan Walden

 Temporary Next– Eric O’Flaherty

 

The Braves are holding the best closer in the league and one of the best bullpen staffs. Craig Kimbrel is as dominating as they come with a 16.66 K9 in 2012. His continually improving control just makes him look better and better, his BB9 has improved every season to 2.01 in 2012. Johnny Venters was hit a little harder than usual in 2012 but on the surface his indicating stats are mostly unchanged. Although Venters continued to throw in the mid-90s he did see his velocity reduced by around 1MPH. Walden was the closer for the Los Angeles Angels in 2011 and with a solid performance this spring could move ahead of Venters in the closer rankings. Walden throws in the high 90s (though he too saw his velocity reduced a bit in 2012) and strikes out more than a btter per inning but has the type of control that can make managers nervous in the ninth.

2013 Closer Update: St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

  Disabled – Jason Motte

  Acting Closer – Mitchell Boggs

Next - Trevor Rosenthal

Super-Sleeper – Fernando Salas

 Closer Jason Motte is likely to open the season on the 15-Day Disabled List due to what is being called a mild elbow strain. An MRI revealed no damage to the ligament but a slight tear to the tendon. General Manager John Mozeliak declared that Mitchell Boggs would be the interim closer with Trevor Rosenthal likely to move into the set-up role.

Motte, who became the Cardinals closer late in 2011, tied for the National League lead with 42 saves last season.

The righty last pitched Thursday. He threw an inning against the Mets. His final pitch of a scoreless inning was 97 mph.

He felt stiffness in his right elbow on the bus ride returning from Port St. Lucie, Fla. Motte described how the elbow felt sore as he reached for his cell phone and that led him to the trainers' room when he got back to the Jupiter complex.

"It tightened up a little bit in my forearm," Motte said. "I felt fine out there (on the mound). It says it's a little muscle strain, it's a little tight. I did all my arm stuff afterward (and) felt fine. I don't know if it was the adrenaline or whatever but I didn't feel anything when I was throwing."

The team has attacked the inflammation in the elbow with the usual treatments, Motte said: ice, stimulation, and some anti-inflammatory medicine.

It had increased by Friday morning, when the team then took him for an MRI of the joint. That was when the tear was discovered. The initial treatment is to tame the inflammation in the joint so that a clearer sense of the damage can be measured.

Jason Motte has been drafted as a top 4-5 closer in many early leagues. He gives his owners more innings than the typical closer thanks to his frequent use in the eighth inning. He throws in the high 90s with excellent control and an improving swinging strike rate and K9 rate. He is as locked into the role as any closer can be these days. His manager seems to have a great deal of faith in him and he has delivered nearly every time. 

Mitchell Boggs is a hard throwing right-hander with a mid-90s fastball. He has an average Swinging Strike Rate and a middling K9 for a potential closer. He has ok control and induces a high rate of groundballs (career 52.4 percent). His career high for saves is four gained during the 2011 season..

Hanley Ramirez and Other Fantasy Baseball Injuries

Hanley Ramirez: Torn Ligament in Right Thumb

Hanley Ramirez tore a ligament in his right thumb during the final game of the World Baseball Classic. The Dodgers expect him to miss at least eight weeks. A mid-May return is probably the best we can expect for Ramirez who had been playing very well this spring. This obviously has a huge impact on his Draft Day cost and 2013 value. He loses nearly a third of his potential playing time. If you had him as a 40-45 dollar player he looks more like a 27-30 player.

The biggest playing time beneficiary should be last year's shortstop Dee Gordon. Gordon has had a impressive spring to date with an On-Base Percentage around .400 just as manager Don Mattingly requested. In a full season Gordon was already capable of a 50-steal season. If he maintains this level of patience (which isn't far off his minor league levels) over a full season he could easily swipe 70 bases. Few expect Luis Cruz to be successful as the starting Third Baseman so there is a natural roster development (Hanley Ramirez moving back to third base) if Gordon is playing well. In addition, Mark Ellis has been injury prone in the past and Gordon could quickly transition there as well. At Gordon's current ADP he must be considered an excellent sleeper source for steals from the shortstop position.

Tommy Hanson: Triceps Tightness in Right Arm

Tommy Hanson was pulled from Wednesday's start against the Cleveland Indians after complaining of triceps stiffness while warming up for the fourth inning. Hanson (as the Angels should be well aware) has a history of battling through injuries to pitch even to his long-term detriment. So, when catcher Chris Ianetta spotted Hanson shaking his arm he confronted him about it. Hanson insisted he was fine and prepared to pitch. He even said after the game that there was no chance he would miss his next start. Hanson had been pitching fairly well until his removal with four strikeouts to just one walk through three innings. His velocity was in his normal range. The Angels confirmed they pulled him just to be safe.

If something does develop right-handers Garrett Richards and Jerome Williams would be the leading candidates (neither can be recommended as more than a late/reserve rounds flyer) to replace Hanson in the rotation. Hanson has been a late round draft pick in most leagues and little more than that even in Al-Only. Hanson was very effective in the first half of the 2012 season before descending into wretchedness in the second half. No injury was reported. It is very possible that Hanson merely tired down the stretch after missing half of the 2011 season.

Pablo Sandoval: Right Elbow Ulnar Neuritis

As fantasy owners we crucify guys like Evan Longoria for being injury prone. Somehow Pablo Sandoval who is at least as bad if not much worse has escaped the label. Sandoval has had a bone spur in the same elbow the last few years (since 2009) but supposedly it has not been a problem only causing him to miss a few days during the 2009 season. The current injury has been diagnosed as Ulnar Neuritis which is of the Ulnar Nerve. Sandoval has been suspended indefinitely from all baseball activities. There is no schedule for his return but the Giants believe he will be ready to start the regular season.

The Giants do not really have a back-up plan if the Panda goes down to injury. They traded away their most advanced third base prospect - Conor Gillaspie. Marco Scutaro is locked in at second base. That leaves Joaquin Arias as the most likely replacement. Sandoval owners will want to draft the best possible reserve at third base as Sandoval could be in and out of the lineup all year.

2013 Closer Update: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Closer – Aroldis Chapman

Next – Jonathan Broxton

Sleeper – Sean Marshall

Super-Sleeper – Jose Arredondo

With manager Dusty Baker expressing his support for Aroldis Chapman as a closer and Chapman announcing that he grew to enjoy the closer role and would like to return to it, it was easy to see this coming. Chapman should immediately rise to the top of your closer rankings. He should be second only to Craig Kimbrel.Owners can expect an elite strikeout rate and excellent ratios. Click here to read more about the Cincinnati Reds decision.

It would appear that Jonathan Broxton has recovered from years of abuse at the hands of Joe Torre. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity will probably never be what they were again but Broxton has learned to be effective with what he has which is a still a nice low to mid 90s fastball. As long as his control is there he should be an effective set-up man and emergency closer. Only the return of Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen is forcing Broxton from the closer role.

Triple Crown National League Auction Results

This is the time of year for expert leagues, and the Triple Crown NL Auction is in the books.  I was happy to represent Advanced Fantasy Baseball in this NL-only 5x5 rotisserie auction redraft league.

In order to make a good showing, I knew I had to deal with two difficult sets of circumstances:  1) the other owners are industry experts, and I expected them to be disciplined and make very few mistakes; and 2) this was going to be my first NL-only auction. 

To even the playing field, I decided upon two strategies I have used successfully in other leagues.  The first was to select a core group of players I wanted on my team, even if I had to pay a little extra for them.  My belief was that the other owners would be fairly conservative, and not go beyond a players value range, even by a couple of dollars.  The second was to search for inefficiencies in the market...players I believe will be worth more than generally expected.  I hoped that savings from the second strategy would offset the extra money spent buying my core players.  Having a firm idea who I wanted before the auction made up somewhat for my lesser knowledge of the player pool.

Here's how I wound up:


ADVANCED FB CRUMPLER

10    Bryce Harper, Wsh OF      $28
47    Norichika Aoki, Mil OF      $16
54    Angel Pagan, SF OF      $16
56    M. Bumgarner, SF SP      $20
59    Juan Pierre, Mia OF      $12
63    Yadier Molina, StL C      $20
70    Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP      $19
71    Yonder Alonso, SD 1B      $14
83    Neil Walker, Pit 2B      $17
87    Aaron Hill, Ari 2B          $21
89    Mat Latos, Cin SP          $18
97    Josh Rutledge, Col SS      $16
153    L. Morrison, Mia OF      $12
159    Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC RP      $11
161    Sean Marshall, Cin RP      $2
172    Jordan Pacheco, Col 3B      $6
198    Travis d'Arnaud, NYM C      $5
236    Chris Heisey, Cin OF      $2
239    Bronson Arroyo, Cin SP      $1
251    Placido Polanco, Mia 3B      $1
263    Fernando Salas, StL RP      $1
274    J.J. Hoover, Cin RP      $1
284    Eric O'Flaherty, Atl RP      $1
292    Edward Mujica, StL RP      $1
299    A. Bastardo, Phi RP      $1
306    John Baker, SD C          $1
310    Tim Stauffer, SD SP      $1

The number to the left shows where the player was nominated (for example, Bryce Harper was the 10th nomination).  To the right are my winning bids.

Bryce Harper is one of the core players I intended to buy all along.  I expect growth this year, and I was happy to pay $28.  It wasn't until the 47th player that I purchased again.  In the meantime, way too many guys had gone for more than my conservative budget would allow (no more than $30 for a hitter, no more than $20 for a pitcher).  Eventually, Aoki joined the fold.  I didn't have him targeted in advance, but I classified him as a bargain at $16. 

Other players on my "must buy" list:  Angel Pagan, Yonder Alonso, Yadier Molina, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos, Neil Walker, and Kyuji Fukiwawa.  Of these, I was able to get some at discounts, such as Pagan at $16, Alonso at $14 and Neil Walker at $17.  I later added Bumgarner to my staff, with Bronson Arroyo a nice pickup at only $1. 

I knew I wouldn't be able to make it through the year on four starting pitchers, but the ones I got are high K/9 guys, and I filled in with high K relievers.  Of those relievers, Fujikawa should wind up closing soon, and a couple of others could be in good shape for vulture wins and/or a few saves.  Keep in mind that a large portion of the pitching value in a given year is not on a roster after the auction, so choosing the right free agents will be essential.

The middle infield came about a little oddly.  I had grabbed Neil Walker with some confident, aggressive bidding, and thought he was a good buy.  I was happy, because 2B is thin, and I thought I had one of the best.  Then someone nominated Aaron Hill, my choice for best of the 2B heap. I was sure he would go for $28 or $30.  So, for the heck of it, I waited until the bidding went $1, $2, $3, and then I jumped the bid to $21.  Crickets. I don't know whether everyone else thought $21 was to much for Hill, or if they were shocked just long enough to take no action.  I was happy to have an excellent 2B and an MI.  Things got even better with the shortstop position, when I picked up Josh Rutledge for only $16. So, with Hill, Walker and Rutledge, I would stack my middle infield up against just about anyone.

My spree of buying 11 players between #47 and #97 drained my budget and put me behind the eight ball a bit.  I was forced to battle for Logan Morrison, the last decent CI out there, and Jordan Pacheco for my 3B.  He cost me $5 precious dollars at a time when I had very little money left.  The word now is that Arenado may start at third in Colorado, but I believe Pacheco will get enough ABs at third, first and even catcher to justify his price.  He could even qualify as a Catcher, which could make him decent trade bait.

After Harper, Aoki  and Pagan, I set out to finish my outfield.  The outfield is pretty thin in the NL this year, with a lot of glove men manning the posts.  We start with only 90 or so who qualify, then we take 60 of them for the outfield position, another handful as DHs, and a few in other positions.  That probably strips at least 70 to 75, leaving only a little more than a dozen left.  And with our four-man bench, those few stragglers were certain to get roped.

So, I went first with Juan Pierre.  Seldom have I seen a guy for whom the posted values vary so greatly.  Some value him at $26 in an "only" league, while others say $4 to $5.  Here's what I know...he can still fly, he will get a chance to run, and his average should help your team.  For $12, he's a gamble worth taking in my book.

The rest of the draft was spent struggling through dollar days, trying to find a pearl here and there.  It was frustrating to be down to a dollar a player, a harsh reminder to save some money for the end game, even if it means letting someone go that you would like to have.

The next night, our first free agent period, I purchased Yorvit Torrealba to replace John Baker as my emergency catcher, and said goodby to Fernando Salas in return for Alex Castellanos.  I look at that LAD outfield, and figure Castellanos should get some ABs on sick days.

So, what does the team look like?  The post-draft projection app at ESPN picked my squad to finish a strong third, only four points out of first.  Of course, my projections for many of my players are more optimistic than CBS...which is why I got those particular players.

Here's my roster again, by position:

Advanced FB Crumpler

C Yadier Molina 20
C Travis d'Arnaud 5

1B Yonder Alonso 14
2B Neil Walker 17
3B Jordan Pacheco 6
SS Josh Rutledge 16

MI Aaron Hill 21
CI Logan Morrison 12

OF Bryce Harper 28
OF Norichika Aoki 16
OF Angel Pagan 16
OF Juan Pierre 12
OF Chris Heisey 2

UTL Placido Polanco 1

P Madison Bumgarner 20
P Yovani Gallardo 19
P Mat Latos 18
P Kyuji Fujikawa 11
P Sean Marshall 2
P Bronson Arroyo 1
P  Antonio Bastardo 1
P J.J. Hoover 1
P Eric O'Flaherty 1

BE Edward Mujica 1
BE John Baker 1  (now Yorvit Torrealba)
BE Tim Stauffer 1
BE Fernando Salas 1  ( now Alex Constellanos)

Here's what I figure these guys can generate if my projections hold true:

Runs:     825
HR:    180
RBI:    750
SB:    180   
Avg:     .279

Ws:    75
Sv:    24
Ks:    1050
ERA:    3.35
Whip: 1.18

We should do very well in Runs, SBs and Average, and pretty well in HR and SBs.  I do see a need for some more pop, though, and that will be a priority in trading.  I'll also scour the free agents each week looking for a serviceable pitcher.  I would settle for a guy I could only start at home, when the match-up is right.  A guy may go 4.90 ERA on the road, but have a cozy little 3.45 in his home part.

Well, that's about it, at least for now.  If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to make yourself heard. And again, thanks to Jon and Advanced Fantasy Baseball for giving me the chance to play in this challenging and exciting league.

Check in for more updates on the Triple Crown NL League, and be sure to check AFB regularly for tips and information which will help you in your league.