Nailing Down the Arizona Closer Situation

After waiting entirely too long, Arizona Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch decided to remove Chad Qualls from the closer role. For the moment we are expected to believe that Aaron Heilman is the new closer. However, the D'Backs have been hesitant to place Heilman in that role. Their reasoning is not clear. Most of the bullpen has struggled and it is possible they find him more valuable in a set-up role.

Hinch added to the confusion Wednesday night by bringing Heilman into the game in the eighth inning when his team trailed 6-4. While it is true that Heilman needed the work, the result of the outing casts doubt on Heilman's hold on the job. He allowed four baserunners and two runs to score in one inning of work.

I believe that Sam Demel will be closing in Arizona in the second half. I was going to write more about Sam Demel. The D'backs just acquired him in the Connor Jackson trade. But Jason Grey has already done the job many times better than I ever could so I'll just link and sample him here.

A third-round pick in the 2007 draft (one pick after the Chicago White Sox drafted current Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher John Ely), Demel both started and closed in college at TCU, but the 6-foot right-hander has been viewed strictly as a reliever in the pros. The A's have drafted a number of hard-throwing relief arms in recent years (Demel, Andrew Bailey, Jeff Gray, Jared Lansford, Andrew Carignan) in the hopes that some of them pick up the necessary secondary pitches and/or command to stick in the majors...

...In terms of his fantasy value, the main thing to talk about with Demel in the short term is opportunity, as the D-backs are looking for someone, anyone, to step up in the later innings. Aaron Heilman is getting a chance to run with the ball for the moment in the ninth, almost by default. But Heilman has had far more success against left-handed hitters this year thanks to his changeup; his ability to get tough righties out in the ninth is still in question. The expectation is that Demel could quickly find his way to some high-pressure situations if he adapts well to the major leagues.

Read the rest of the article for a great write-up of his skills and ability as a pitcher. As Jason points out the key is that Demel has a huge opportunity to work his way into the role quickly. The rest of the Arizona bullpen has been horrible. There is no one (with the exception of Heilman and a possible return to Qualls at some point) in the way of Demel becoming the closer. He should be picked up by any owner in any type of league where saves are at a premium.

2010 Free Agents: Relief Pitchers

One of the most important things that Fantasy Owners must do in the off-season is track the players who change teams. New teams mean different park factors, different roles, and new teammates and coaches. The relief pitchers on this list include very few healthy, proven closers but several very good pitchers that could fill the role for a team trying to avoid the expense of a more proven ninth inning veteran. There are also several pitchers listed here as relievers who could find themselves in the mix as starters. Bookmark this post as it will be updated as players sign or re-sign with teams.

Key Sleepers: Joaquin Benoit, J.J. Putz, Tom Gordon

Relief Pitchers
Luis Ayala FLA
Danys Baez BAL
Miguel Batista SEA
Joe Beimel COL (B)
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Rafael Betancourt * COL (A)
Chad Bradford BAL
Doug Brocail * HOU (B)
Kiko Calero FLA (B)
Elmer Dessens NYM - The Associated Press is reporting that the Mets have re-signed reliever Elmer Dessens to a one-year, minor-league contract. Under the terms of the split deal, Dessens would earn $700K if makes New York's 40-man roster, and $90K if he pitches in the minors. He can earn an extra 30K if he makes 20 major league appearances, with an extra $30K then added for every additional 10 appearances.
Brendan Donnelly FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS (A)
Alan Embree COL
Scott Eyre PHI (B) - Scott Eyre will have loose bodies removed from his left elbow on Nov 9
Josh Fogg COL
Chad Fox CHC
Ryan Franklin * STL
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL (A) - Gonzalez gets a $12 million, two-year contract from the Orioles.
Tom Gordon ARZ
John Grabow CHC (A)
Kevin Gregg CHC (A)
Eddie Guardado TEX
LaTroy Hawkins HOU (A)
Mark Hendrickson BAL
Matt Herges COL
Trevor Hoffman MIL (A) - Re-signed with the Milwaukee Brewers
Bobby Howry SF (B)
Jason Isringhausen TB
Masahide Kobayashi * CLE
Brandon Lyon DET (B)
Ron Mahay MIN
Gary Majewski WAS
Guillermo Mota LAD (B)
Will Ohman * LAD (B)
Darren Oliver LAA (A)
Chan Ho Park PHI (B)
Troy Percival TB
J.J. Putz * NYM - The Mets officially declined J.J. Putz's $9.1 million option Friday, officially making him a free agent.
Juan Rincon COL
Fernando Rodney DET (B)
Takashi Saito BOS - The Braves made another move to strengthen their pitching staff Thursday, agreeing to a $3.2 million, one-year contract with reliever Takashi Saito.
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
Brian Shouse * TB (B)
Rafael Soriano ATL (A)
Russ Springer TB (B)
Brett Tomko OAK
Jose Valverde HOU (A)
Claudio Vargas MIL
Ron Villone WAS
Luis Vizcaino * COL
Billy Wagner BOS (A) - ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reports the Atlanta Braves agreed with RP Billy Wagner (Red Sox) on a one-year, $7 million deal that includes a $6.5 million vesting option for 2011.
Jamie Walker BAL
David Weathers MIL - The Brewers decided not to exercise a $3.7 million option on reliever David Weathers. The club will pay him a $400,000 buyout.
Jeff Weaver LAD
Kip Wells CIN
Jamey Wright KC
Yasuhiko Yabuta - The Royals spent $500,000 in voiding their option on Yasuhiko Yabuta.

The Mets are close to a two-year deal with Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi, The Associated Press reported on Tuesday.

Igarashi would help shore up the Mets bullpen as a capable setup man for closer Francisco Rodriguez, replacing Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz, who both left the team as free agents this offseason.

The Rockies moved quickly to fortify their bullpen Thursday (Nov.4th), signing Matt Belisle and Randy Flores to one-year deals. Here are the details of their contracts obtained by The Denver Post. Belisle agreed to a one-year, $850,000 deal that is not fully guaranteed because it’s an arbitration contract. He can make an additional $275,000 in incentives for games, beginning at 55 games and capping at 75. He can also make $200,000 for games finished in the event he ends up closing, starting at 40 games.

Proctor will sign a minor league contract with the Atlanta Braves that includes both a minor league salary and a major league salary. Terms of the contract were not released by Rodgers, however, he did say the deal is similar to what Proctor had with Florida this season — that was a one-year contract worth $750,000 that included $250,000 in incentives.

The Pittsburgh Pirates today agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Wilfredo Ledezma on a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

Trevor Hoffman Close to Re-Signing with Brewers

According to a report in the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, Trevor Hoffman is very close to re-signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. Both sides have been quoted as interested in another deal so this should come as no surprise to Brewer fans. In fact, ESPN's Buster Olney is saying that the deal is done. A one year deal for $8 million that keeps the closer in a Brewer uniform.

Hoffman had another very solid season despite common belief that his skills were fading at the end of the 2008 season. Hoffman converted 37 of 41 save chances and finished with a 3-2 record, 1.83/2.63 ERA/FIP, 8.00 K9, 2.33 BB9, 0.33HR9, and a 0.85 GB/FB ratio. He should be a solid mid-range closer for fantasy owners in 2010.


Under Not Fantasy Sports But Still Awesome:

Joe Posnanski is my favorite baseball writer. He is the favorite of a lot of serious baseball fans. He has a new book out called "The Machine" which you can buy through the link below. You'll not only be buying a great book but supporting this site (and a great baseball writer) if you use this link. Thanks.

Rob Neyer: (interviewing Joe P.)

Some people root for baseball teams. I root for baseball books, for two reasons. One, a fair number of my friends have written baseball books, so rooting for a book is like rooting for a friend. And two, I've written a few books myself, and know what it's like to pour one's life into something for many months and wind up eliciting hardly a yawn from the Big Wide World. Anyway, I'm rooting for Joe Posnanski's new book, The Machine, about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, which was officially published today. Joe and I haven't yet met, but I do know he's an easy guy to root for, all the more because I've read his book. Well, I thought I knew Pete Rose and Johnny Bench already -- and I did -- but now I know them better.

There are memorable teams in baseball—and then there are utterly unforgettable teams like the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. From 1972 to 1976, the franchise known as the Big Red Machine dominated the National League, winning four division crowns, three league pennants, and two World Series titles. But their 1975 season has become the stuff of sports legend. In The Machine, award-winning sports columnist Joe Posnanski captures all of the passion and tension, drama and glory of this extraordinary team considered to be one of the greatest ever to take the field. Helmed by Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, the lineup for the '75 Reds is a Who's Who of baseball stars: Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, George Foster, Cesar Geronimo, and Dave Concepcion. Like a well-oiled engine, the '75 Reds ended the regular season with 108 wins and finished a whopping 20 games ahead of their closest division competitor, the Los Angeles Dodgers. But that remarkable year was not without controversy. Feuds, fights, insults, and run-ins with fans were as much a part of the season as hits, runs, steals, and strikeouts. Capturing this rollicking thrill-ride of a story, Posnanski brings to vivid life the excitement, hope, and high expectations that surrounded the players from the beginning of spring training through the long summer and into a nail-biting World Series, where, in the ninth inning of the seventh game, the Big Red Machine fulfilled its destiny, defeating the Boston Red Sox 4-3. As enthralling and entertaining as the season and players it captures, The Machine is the story of a team unlike any other in the sport's glorious history.

Early 2010 Opening Day Closer Predictions

One of the biggest battles in keeper leagues is over the players that will soon become closers. These days, everyone is hip to the idea that paying full price for saves is a strategy that often blows up in your face. You just can't afford to spend 25-35 dollars (and if you really want to lead in the saves category almost twice that amount) to buy one of the closers that you'll have to pray doesn't lose his job. The recent outcome of this mass realization is that the next in line relievers have become more expensive. Whereas in the old days, you could buy one of the top set-up guys for a few dollars, you see the best set-up guys under the weaker closers going for $10-15 and even up to $20 in some cases. Don't believe me? Check out how much guys like Carlos Marmol and Manny Corpas cost this spring and how much were they actually worth?

With this article, I am not trying to predict free agent activity and trades. Instead I want to give you an early look at the players with closer skills who have the eyes of their respective teams as potential closers. In addition I'll be evaluating the present closers for weaknesses that may not be apparent on the surface. Most of this will be done with AL & NL-only leagues as the context but it should have tons of value for mixed leaguers also.

Baltimore Orioles
Jim Johnson has been closing for the Orioles since they traded George Sherrill to the Los Angeles Dodgers just before the trading deadline. He is a solid reliever with a high groundball rate. His K9 is decent but not spectacular. Johnson has done nothing to lose the role this year and would probably continue to do a solid job as the closer next season. However, Chris Ray is still on this team. He was the closer before he was hurt and has the flashy K-rate that managers love to see. Unfortunately, Ray has never been as good as he looked according to FIP, mostly due to poor walk rates and relatively few groundballs. But lately Ray has concentrated on using his two-seam fastball which has greater movement than his harder but straighter four-seam fastball. The results have been extremely good for him. If this keeps up he'll be hard to keep out of the role.

2010 Prediction: Jim Johnson remains the closer to start the season, but Chris Ray will be forever rumored to take the job and will by mid-season.

Boston Red Sox
Though his strikeout rate remains high, Jonathan Papelbon's three year decline in K9 and this year's loss of control is becoming a much discussed issue in Boston. Papelbon refuses to sign a long term deal with the Red Sox, insisting that he will become a free agent after the 2011 season. He is looking for Mariano Rivera money, that the Red Sox and Theo Epstein have been reluctant to give to relief pitchers. Meanwhile, Daniel Bard has reached the majors and his stuff is just as good as Papelbon's. There have already been rumors and talk of a Papelbon trade so that Bard can take over as closer. Having watched Bard frequently, I do not think the Red Sox would lose much by making the change.

2010 Prediction: Papelbon will keep the job after the Red Sox explore trade possibilities this winter. But if his stuff continues to degrade, the Red Sox will not hesitate to make the change to Daniel Bard.

Chicago White Sox
Bobby Jenks has had injury issues this season, including missing time after the removal of kidney stones. His K-rate is back where it should be at close to a strikeout per inning. But the reduction in his groundball rate and a freakishly high HR/FB has led to a surge in his ERA. Matt Thornton has become next-in-line thanks to superb performances over the last two seasons. Octavio Dotel becomes a free agent after the season and is likely to find a new team. Bobby Jenks will be due a big raise in arbitration this season but the White Sox can afford to pay him.

2010 Prediction: Jenks is not the best closer, but he seems like one of the safer ones for fantasy owners. If anything developed, Thornton would step in without a hitch.

Cleveland Indians
I have always loved Kerry Wood but he has not been good this season. The main problem is his control. Wood has never been considered a control pitcher but after last season it seemed like being in the bullpen clicked with him. It could be the change in leagues, or the nagging injuries that have always plagued him, but realistically his walk rate looks like it has always looked which is a problem. Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Chris Perez and Rafael Perez are all options if they decide to make a change. The favorite looks like Chris Perez who has control problems of his own. Wood has a vesting option in his contract at 55 games finished which I have a feeling the Indians will try to avoid. So we might see someone besides Wood seeing some save chances over the next five weeks.

2010 Prediction: Kerry Wood will be shopped at the Winter Meetings but the Indians will find few buyers. Wood starts the season as the closer with Perez a popular sleeper pick.

2011 DARK HORSE SELECTION: Tony Sipp - This kid has the stuff to close without question. He has been up and down all season. He had a terrible month of July but has been Lights Out in August. He had Tommy John Surgery in 2007 and took some time to get his mojo working but he is certainly on right now. This time next season everyone will want him.

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers always seem to have bullpen issues. Fernando Rodney has held on to the job without any problems this season but the Tigers will almost certainly try to upgrade their bullpen after the season and Rodney will be a free agent. Ryan Perry is the closer of the future but he should probably be pitching at double-a Erie this season and in triple-a in 2010. Brandon Lyon has closer experience and has had a solid season, but I see him as a set-up man next season if he remains with the Tigers. Joel Zumaya should be an option only as a reserve on very deep rosters in very deep leagues.

2010 Prediction: No one on the present roster will take the job from Rodney if he stays. But the Tigers will be looking to trade for or sign a closer if they can do so without breaking the bank. Wouldn't the idea of a Tigers/Red Sox trade be interesting? I sincerely doubt that the Tigers would allow Rodney to leave only to sign Lyon on as their closer. If everyone leaves Ryan Perry will be forced into the closer role.

Kansas City Royals
With Joakim Soria the Royals have one of the better closers in baseball. Unfortunately, the Royals have a terrible reputation when it comes to protecting their players from injury and properly diagnosing and treating them after they occur. Soria suffered from some mysterious ailments that the team refused to discuss in much detail. It has greatly reduced Soria's innings this season and thus his impact on fantasy teams. Kyle Farnsworth would close if Soria was unavailable.

2010 Predictions: The Royals need to make improvements all over the field. I would be shocked if they did much to address the bullpen beyond Soria and Farnsworth. Soria is the unquestioned closer for the Royals.

LA Angels
Brian Fuentes has continued the Angel tradition of collecting a ton of saves after replacing Francisco Rodriguez. He won't break K-Rod's record but should easily surpass 40 saves this year. There is no doubt that given health Fuentes will start 2010 as the closer. But with Fuentes being less than awe inspiring it would not shock me if a change came in 2010 if he were ineffective. Jose Arredondo is still the next best option. His inflated ERA is the result of a bloated BABIP of .363, but his solid .332 FIP is a sign that he is still a very good pitcher.

2010 Prediction: Brian Fuentes will be the unquestioned closer to start 2010. Jose Arredondo is the future.

Minnesota Twins
Joe Nathan is one of the top three closers in the game. The Twins are moving into a brand new stadium next season so any thoughts of trading one of their most popular players should be out the window. Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares can both make claims on being next in line but most likely they'll need to wait until 2012 before it begins to look like a possibility. The Twins traded a player to be named later for Arizona's Jon Rauch on Friday to add depth to their bullpen, but it would take a disaster to find him in a position to get saves.

2010 Prediction: Joe Nathan is the closer. There is no doubt. I like Guerrier as the future closer but in fantasy years that is decades away.

New York Yankees
The Yankees have a Hall-of-Fame closer who should be just fine through the end of his contract in 2010. The question then becomes how much and how many years with the Yankees be willing to invest in a 41-year old reliever like Mariano Rivera. The Yankees have plenty of in-house options to replace Rivera should he decide to retire. But if he continues to pitch I cannot see anyone outbidding the Bombers for his services. The future at closer in New York could come from almost anywhere. I would cross both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes off the list of possibilities, they'll be in the rotation. My favorite to take over the role is David Robertson, who still has some control issues but a K-rate over 13.00 makes up for quite a bit. Mark Melancon, Brian Bruney, and half a dozen names from the minors could be closing in a few years. This is a team where speculation on what the future holds will be both expensive and risky.

2010 Prediction: Mariano Rivera has another World Series MVP in his future. David Robertson and Mark Melancon will both emerge as great set-up relievers and possible closers.

Oakland Athletics
When Joey Devine was unable to go this season Brad Ziegler stepped into the role and performed decently but still managed to lose the role to Andrew Bailey who has pitched great. Michael Wuertz also managed to collect a few saves. The A's have a solid and deep bullpen that should only improve when Devine returns next season. Though Bailey has done nothing to lose the job this season, he will need to re-win the job next spring. Billy Beane could very well trade Bailey or Ziegler if the return is good enough.

2010 Prediction: Joey Devine will emerge as the closer the Athletics meant him to be since acquiring him. Health will always be a consideration for Devine owners, so Ziegler and Wuertz will see plenty of bids.

Seattle Mariners
I have been really proud of myself for calling David Aardsma as the Mariners closer (you should see the size of my head). But Aardsma is not a long-term closer. His walk rate is still bloated (5.17 BB9) and he's been a bit lucky that those walks haven't done more damage. The Mariners are slowly putting together a nice collection of arms. Brandon Morrow will be a starter next season and will stay a starter long enough to get through the ups and downs of starting (which means the entire season). Sean White, Shawn Kelley, Josh Fields and Mark Lowe are all possibilities but I have a feeling that the next long term closer for the Mariners isn't in the picture just yet.

2010 Prediction: David Aardsma won't be quite as good next year but he'll start the season in the role and keep it all year.

Tampa Bay Rays
After struggling to find a permanent closer for the last few years, J.P. Howell emerged this season as a legit option. Howell is far from the perfect closer. His walk rate is mediocre. He looks lucky with a 86.8 percent LOB and a .259 BABIP. But I can see the Rays going with him next year rather than invest resources to bring in a more established option. Long term the closer willcome from the farm system. Mostly likely from the group of very good starters they have trapped at triple-A. Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee, Wade Davis and Jeff Neimann will battle for the last spot in the rotation next year and the losers are likely to find roles in the bullpen. These are not your typical fifth starters.

2010 Predictions: The Rays will have another Spring Training battle of potential closer candidates. Howell will be the established favorite with an edge in earning the role.

Texas Rangers
Frank Francisco has been a great closer for the Rangers when healthy this season. But his frequent DL stints have spotlighted C.J. Wilson as another fine possibility. Both get the job done with plenty of strikeouts. Francisco's stuff is a bit better but Wilson is more durable and induces groundballs.

2010 Prediction: Frank Francisco remains the number one option. C.J. Wilson will be a nice alternative when Francisco requires a few days off. Wilson makes a nice speculation pick.

Toronto Blue Jays
Cito Gaston gave us hints that he wanted Scott Downs as the closer all winter and throughout Spring Training. If you listened you were not surprised when B.J. Ryan was quickly replaced. Downs has been very good but injuries have been a problem. Jason Frasor has been a fine replacement when needed but the Blue Jays would probably look elsewhere when Downs becomes a free agent after the 2010 season. But with the Blue Jays you never know. They dump contracts and say they are raising the payroll in essentially the same breath.

2010 Prediction: Downs will begin and end the 2010 season as the Jays' closer.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Chad Qualls is a free agent after next season, so considering that the Diamondbacks tried to trade him before the deadline (and still could in a quite active waiver period) they should have a new closer in 2010. The D'Backs have several good young arms in their bullpen that could replace Qualls. Juan Gutierrez and Esmerling Vasquez both have the stuff if not quite the guile at this point. The pitcher I like for the role has the stuff, a cool story, and a Rollie Fingers mustache too boot. Clay Zavada is my pick. In addition to a nice strikeout rate he has prevented the long ball despite not inducing many groundballs.

2010 Prediction: Chad Qualls will be a free agent after the 2010 season and will probably be traded before Opening Day. Clay Zavada will become the new closer.

Atlanta Braves
Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have basically been co-closers this season. Neither has been especially bad but Soriano has been much better statistically. Both will be free agents after the season. The Braves could re-sign one of the two or another free agent closer but their bullpen could still use a bit more depth. The side-arming Peter Moylan is probably the most likely in-house option but it is a bit of a stretch to see him in the role.

2010 Prediction: The Braves 2010 closer is not yet on the roster.

Chicago Cubs
After a season of speculation the Cubs finally gave Carlos Marmol the closer role after Kevin Gregg experienced an inconveniently timed streak if awfulness. Ironically, Marmol has been just as awful (if not worse) since gaining the role. "We'll continue to give him the ball," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "But boy he makes it tough on himself." The Cubs are looking incapable of making up the games they need to get back into the Wild Card race. They have almost no chance at catching the Cardinals for the division. So, giving Marmol the role for the remainder of the season makes some sense. Gregg is a free agent after the season and will be in demand as a mid-priced closer option.

2010 Prediction: He'll be pissed about it, but once again Carlos Marmol will have to earn the closer role in Spring Training. In addition to whatever free agent options the Cubs bring into the mix, he'll have to compete with Angel Guzman and Jeff Samardzija as well. Marmol is the odds on favorite but I'll be bidding on Guzman and Samardzija instead.

Cincinnati Reds
Francisco Cordero has been very effective as the Reds closer. Although many have speculated that the Reds would be looking to trade away some salary after the season, I do not believe that will be the case. It certainly won't be Cordero who is traded. Nick Masset is probably the closer-in-waiting and a nice option should I be wrong about the Reds intentions. Masset has a decent but uncloser-like K-rate of 7.74 this season and a high groundball rate of 54.2 percent. He would probably be of use to NL-only league owners even without a regular opportunity for saves.

2010 Prediction: Francisco Cordero will remain the closer in Cincinnati.

Colorado Rockies
It was not hard to predict that Huston Street would be a solid closer for the Colorado Rockies. being effective has never been as much of a problem as staying healthy. In the spring rumors flew around that the Rockies only acquired Street to trade him and there seems to have been some truth to that notion. But when the Rockies found themselves in the playoff hunt and one of the favorites to win the Wild Card, the idea of trading Street was pulled off the table. Manny Corpas, who was the player predicted to take over as closer at some point this season was disappointing to say the least. In addition to a 5.88 ERA (3.54 FIP), he suffered a variety of injuries. Corpas' most recent problem was an infection that occurred in his surgically repaired elbow. He'll miss the rest of the season as a result. Matt Daley and Rafael Betancourt have both been solid set-up men. Betancourt is the likely fill-in should anything happen to Street at this point. The Rockies hold a reasonable option on Betancourt for the 2010 season and they seem likely to retain him. Street is in his last year of arbitration and could still be traded after the season.

2010 Prediction: Street stays on for the 2010 season and is once again a solid saves option for fantasy owners.

Florida Marlins
Leo Nunez has done a decent job as the closer since Matt Lindstrom went down with injuries. Lindstrom had been on the verge of replacement before getting hurt anyway. However Lindstrom is back and has pitched much better of late. The Marlins have been pretty open about shopping for a veteran closer but with the Marlins the price is most often too high. Dan Meyer, the former top prospect of the Braves and Athletics has been priceless in the pen and has been mentioned as a potential closing candidate. As a lefty the Marlins may prefer him in a set-up role.

2010 Prediction: Matt Lindstrom is reinstalled as the closer even if Nunez finishes the 2009 season in the role.

Houston Astros
Injuries prevented Jose Valverde from providing his fantasy owners with a satisfying season but statistically he has been the same pitcher he's always been. he provides tons of strikeouts with a mediocre walk rate. Valverde is unsigned and a potential free agent after this season but the Astros almost have to re-sign him because they have no prospects or even much in the way of a veteran reliever that could fill the role on a full-time basis. LaTroy Hawkins was a nice fill-in this season but he's a free agent again after this season and is likely to make a lot more money elsewhere.

2010 Prediction: The Astros will try to re-sign Valverde but may go for a cheaper option instead like Kevin Gregg or Mike Gonzalez. They have almost nothing in the way of an in-house option.

LA Dodgers
In his first full season as the regular closer, Jonathan Broxton has been very good. He has a killer strikeout rate (13.28) and a very nice groundball percentage (54 percent) that combine to make him one of the better closer's available. The Dodgers have built a very nice bullpen around him. George Sherrill was a pretty good closer himself and is now Broxton's set-up man. Guillermo Mota has been solid but is a free agent after this season. Ramon Troncoso has a good arm and should continue to develop into a solid reliever in his own right. Hong-Chih Kuo could be one of the better pitchers in baseball if he could stay healthy and available.

2010 Prediction: Jonathan Broxton is one of the better closers in baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Trevor Hoffman was great this season for the Brewers. He has a very good chance at signing on as a closer somewhere for the 2010 season and it could be to stay in Milwaukee. The Brewers haven't developed any obvious closer candidates but Todd Coffey looks like he could handle the role. Coffey was frequently touted as a potential closer in his Cincinnati days. He owns a 3.87 K/BB with a groundball rate of over 50 percent.

2010 Prediction: Hoffman sticks around as the closer for one more season.

New York Mets
It is safe to say that the 2009 season has been a disaster for the New York Mets. But at least they can say that in a season where 20 different Mets went on the disabled list (including first baseman Carlos Delgado, shortstop Jose Reyes, third baseman David Wright, center fielder Carlos Beltran, starters Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and John Maine as well as set-up man, J.J. Putz) closer Francisco Rodriguez stayed relatively healthy. That is not to say that K-Rod has not been a little disappointing. His strikeout rate fell for the fifth straight season even as his walk rate rose for the third straight season to a career high 5.12 BB9, resulting in a career high 4.07 FIP. I suggested he might have an arm injury in Spring Training due to reports of his declining velocity on his fastball, though it rebounded slightly this season to 92.7 from 91.9 in 2008 with the Angels. I still think of K-Rod as a closer to avoid investing too heavily in owning.

2010 Prediction: Rodriguez will remain the Mets closer as long as he is healthy and able to do so.

Philadelphia Phillies
He was almost the perfect closer in 2008 but Brad Lidge has been a disaster in 2009 with nine blown saves and a bloated ERA. Almost every appearance has been an adventure. The team has used DL stints, brief breaks from the role to try an jar Lidge back into the pitcher he can be. Nothing has worked. Lidge has done this before. With the Astros, Lidge was often on and off as a great closer and then inexplicably awful. Unfortunately, when called on to close Ryan Madson (the theoretical next-in-line) has also failed to impress. Madson has been okay in his eighth inning role but has five blown saves of his own. The Phillies failed in their attempts to add a veteran closer to their pen before the deadline and nothing appears to be imminent on the trade front. But there is another option. Brett Myers is due to return from a minor league rehab assignment very soon. Myers was a solid closing option in 2007 and the rotation has been fine without him.

2010 Prediction: Thanks to a pricey contract Lidge returns as the closer. But September of 2009 and the playoffs are an entirely different story. I'm betting on Myers to close 2009.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are becoming a difficult team to predict. I never thought they would trade the reasonably signed Nate McClouth for a collection of B and C prospects. They traded just about every position player who wasn't a first or second year player in exchange for sometimes promising but usually disappointing prospects. I think this was backwards thinking on their part. I know they were trying to add depth to their system but they've already proven that they can produce decent major league role players. Where the Pirates system has always failed them is in developing star level players. The players worthy of building around. This is why I would have preferred fewer top level prospects rather than so many players similar to the ones they already have. But they do have Andrew McCutchen and he looks like a star, but all by himself he just isn't enough. Closer Matt Capps was often involved in trade rumors but has remained a Pirate thus far. Capps is arbitration eligible this season which is likely the reasoning behind offering him in trades. Or maybe, Capps is still a Pirate because his 6.23 ERA/ 5.03 FIP is awful. Capps has been worked to death in his time with the Pirates and would probably benefit from a few months off. Unfortunately, the Pirates don't seem to have anyone remaining with closer worthy skills.

2010 Prediction: The Pirates fail to trade Matt Capps and he remains their closer.

San Diego Padres
The Padres seemed to be shopping Heath Bell pretty aggressively. I have no idea why. Bell is one of the better closers in baseball and he made just over one million dollars this season. Even with the raise he is due next season he should remain one of the better bargains in baseball. But I have to admit the Padres have usually underwhelmed me with their baseball decisions though they have excelled at finding relief pitchers. Mike Adams who has been around the block and been called the closer of various futures pitched great for the Padres this season before suffering a shoulder strain. The club is insisting that this shoulder strain has nothing to do with the torn labrum that required off-season shoulder surgery. I have my doubts about whether that is true or not. Adams was in the middle of his best season and would have become the closer had Bell been traded. With Bell sidelined, Edward Mujica moves to the top of the next-in-line list. Mujica has the stuff but is short on experience.

2010 Prediction: The Padres will realize that Bell is more than worth his salary and let him remain as closer for another season. Mike Adams will be worth drafting next season but will remain an injury risk.

San Francisco Giants
Brian Wilson has been a fine closer for the Giants. He has a decent strikeout rate. He walks a few too many but is not in disaster territory. He also induces groundballs at around a 50 percent rate. He also comes very cheap. The Giants have no reason to make a change. The bullpen around Wilson is strong with a nice mix of veteran experience and live young arms. Brandon Medders, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Alfeldt and Bobby Howry are all solid relievers and decent options to close if the need arose.

2010 Prediction: Brian Wilson is a lock to remain the closer for the Giants.

St. Louis Cardinals
This spring everyone was declaring their loyalty to one or the other Cardinals reliever. Popular opinion had Chris Perez and Jason Motte both seeing time as the closer this season. But the thing that so many missed (and I know they missed it because of the high prices attached to Perez and Motte) is that Tony LaRussa was not fond of the idea of either one of the players as his closer. I am not a big fan of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan for reasons that have little to do with their levels of ability. But one thing I've learned is that LaRussa usually says exactly what he means. This spring he went about his thinking of what was required in a closer. Basically he stated that he did not like the idea of rookies in such an important role. He believed that a great quality in an effective closer was intimidation. He didn't believe that any rookie could intimidate professional hitters. If he couldn't have that intimidation factor he wanted a track record of success that no rookie has for obvious reasons. Knowing that LaRussa trusted Ryan Franklin as his closer in 2008, it was a cinch to predict that Franklin would be LaRussa's choice in 2009. That Franklin has been outstanding in the role is just gravy. The Cardinals hold an option on Franklin for 2010 at $2.75 million.

2010 Prediction: Another Tony LaRussa trait? Trusting veterans to continue doing what they have always done until they prove otherwise. Ryan Franklin will remain the Cardinals closer in 2010.

Washington Nationals
Mike MacDougal has been attempting to become somebody's closer for a long time. For reasons mostly concerning his lack of control, MacDougal has failed over and over again. So while MacDougal has been rather effective (despite still dicey control and a severe loss of dominance) for the Nationals, it is difficult to believe that he will remain the closer for very long. I believe the Nationals have two excellent possibilities for closing. Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett both have the stuff, though Clippard could still wind up in the rotation.

2010 Prediction: Despite Mike MacDougal''s best efforts, Tyler Clippard closes for the Nationals.

Under Not Fantasy Sports but Still Awesome!

Dan Brown, author of the Di Vinci Code and Angels and Demons, has a new book coming out called The Lost Symbol. The new book also features the historian detective, Robert Langdon. Dan brown writes books that are almost impossible to put down. Everyone you know will be talking about it very soon. The even greater news is that Amazon is offering an insane discount on the book right off the bat. You can get the Hardcover edition for just $16.17 which is 46 percent off the cover price. If you buy through one of my Amazon links you'll also be helping out Advanced Fantasy Baseball. In fact, if you buy stuff from Amazon.com you can always do so through the portals on this site and help me out while doing your shopping as usual.

Rays Revamp Pitching Staff w/ David Price

Mark Lancaster of the Tampa Tribune informs of the changes from his Rays Report Blog:

• Scott Kazmir, a two-time All-Star who has been mauled in his last five starts, is headed to the DL with a strained right quad he says resulted from poor mechanics. No word on how long he’ll be sidelined, but considering they have to get the soreness out AND rebuild his mechanics, we’re definitely looking at longer than two weeks.
• David Price, arguably the top prospect in the game, is expected to replace Kazmir in the rotation beginning Monday in Cleveland.
• Troy Percival, age 39 and eighth on the all-time list with 358 career saves, is on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis and may be done for good. He flew home to California today and apparently was distraught after yesterday’s game.

Unless you can bench him, I would be hesitant to activate David Price right now. His walk rate has been elevated at triple-A and so has his HR/9. I love him long term but unless you have no choice (you'll lose him, you're desperate for any chance at good pitching) I would bench or avoid him for now.

The Tampa Bullpen has basically been in a committee mode for the last two years. I think Jason Isringhausen lead the committee as the most experienced closer option. Experience is something Joe Maddon seems to value in the bullpen. Isringhausen should be a fine temporary option if you need saves but I would not invest too heavily.

Moving Up: David Aardsma

He has been a potential closer for longer than is recommended. He has shown better stuff than results...until this season that is. With the Seattle Mariner closer Brandon Morrow, on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis (a minor but annoying problem for a pitcher who is called on multiple times a week) David Aardsma is the favorite to see save opportunities.

Aardsma has pitched very well for new Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu demonstrated that he would not hesitate to use Aardsma in a save situation just last week and Aardsma succeeded without incident.

"You've seen the value of having two guys that have the stuff and the makeup to do the job," manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday to MLB.com.

One of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball is "ride the hot arms until you cannot ride them any longer." Aardsma is pitching very well pick him up and use him until he stops pitching well. If you need saves he is one pitcher that is still available in a lot of leagues about to get the chance to close.

Brandon Morrow to the Disabled List

The Mariners Closing Duo

Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer

Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”

All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

The New Mariners Closer is Brandon Morrow

According to reports from Larry LaRue of the News Tribune, Brandon Morrow is returning to the Seattle Mariner's bullpen. The young right-hander and Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu both want Morrow in the closer role which should cinch the deal. The only potential obstacle is apparently Morrow's handling of his diabetes. Morrow suggested his own return to the bullpen as the closer when it became apparant he was failing to make the starting rotation.

The only thing Morrow needs to prove now is that he can close regularly despite diabetes, a disease that can rock him unexpectedly. On Sunday, for instance, Morrow’s blood sugar level was high and his energy level down.

Morrow has the stuff to close but still has occasional control issues. He will need to be going strong when Chad Cordero is ready to return in late May. Cordero still makes a nice low risk/high reward reserve stash.

Morrow wants to close - and he almost certainly will

Trevor Hoffman and the Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

Thanks to a strain in his rib cage it appears that the Brewers slightly used closer, Trevor Hoffman, will not be available to start the season. This of course kicks speculation about the next in line into overdrive. A serious oblique injury (and it appears that Hoffman's is serious) can take four to six weeks or more to heal properly. The wise money should be on the 41-year old coming in on the long side of that healing time.

From MLB.com:

"It's looking dim," manager Ken Macha said. Macha made that pronouncement after head athletic trainer Roger Caplinger told him that Hoffman won't be back on a mound for another week or so. Because he would probably need to work a few side sessions before getting into a game, it's increasingly likely that Hoffman will be sidelined, and perhaps on the disabled list, when the Brewers play their regular-season opener on April 7 in San Francisco.

Ken Macha seems to prefer right-hander Seth McClung as the temporary replacement. McClung has improved significantly since joining the Brewers and has the stuff to close. Many fantasy analysts have projected Carlos Villanueva as the next in line to close. Villanueva showcased awesome skills as the 2008 season came to an end and many expect him to breakout this season. Unfortunately, Villanueva has pitched poorly in camp, bad enough for Macha to announce publically that he has been disappointing thus far.

Chris Ray: A Fluke?

Chris Ray has a projected 54 BPV as of this writing on the Baseball HQ website. Such a low projection may cause HQ subscribers to greatly downgrade him.

In an article that will appear on this site soon I discuss some reasons you may not win as much as you might. One of those reasons is an over reliance on a particular source. The point being that many fantasy owners choose to adopt the philosophies pf a particular book or website and just take their word for things. On Baseball HQ this week Doug Dennis in an article called Bullpen Buyers Guide (premium) he lumps Baltimore Orioles reliever Chris Ray into a group labeled fluke alongside names like Joey Devine, David Weathers, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski and Seth McClung. Without getting into the others on the list I want to take a look at Chris Ray and show you how the blind adaptation of a site's philosophies can cause you to lose out on valuable players.

Right off the bat I want to share that I have subscribed to Baseball HQ for years and have spent much money on their products. I do not think you can find a more professional or respected source for fantasy related information. But they do have some flaws that can leave holes in your game but therefore also avenues to exploit if you have subcribers in your league.

Chris Ray is the 25 year-old closer for the Baltimore Orioles. Ray may not have a long resume but has been an extremely solid reliever throughout his professional career. The 2006 season began with Ray installed as the closer for the Orioles and with the exception of a brief blip mid-season He was stellar for the entire season and collected the following stats: 66 IP, 45 hits, 27 walks and 51 strikeouts. Now, what HQ doesn't like is his hit-rate. HQ hates anything that they can't explain statistically and since their present doctrine dictates that BABIP is something that a pitcher cannot control any pitcher who performs far better than average is labeled a fluke. Barry Zito is downgraded on their site for the same reason. But if you look at Ray's career stats you'll see that he has always had the SKILL to limit BABIP. I'm not slamming HQ for this way of rating players. They nail far more players than they miss but nevertheless this represents a hole in the HQ rankings that can be exploited in HQ heavy leagues. Look for players with such a track record and you will find fantasy baseball bargains.