Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
- Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs
- Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
- Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins
- Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins
- Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
- Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies
- James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
- Brad Bergensen, Baltimore Orioles
- Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays
- Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians (If he looks healthy in Spring Training he is a must grab)
- Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals
- Ryan Hannigan, Cincinnati Reds
- John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays
- Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles (This is a post-hype pick because his numbers don't justify his selection in a one catcher league. However, I think Buck Showalter and staff will drag him into the stardom once predicted for him.)
- Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves - In an OBP league he should be close to pure gold in value. At present prices that's around $4,672,000 of fantasy value. He's a BARGAIN in any league!
- Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins - A true power hitter, who I expect to hit 40-plus homers in 2011. Starting in 2012, he'll be a first round pick for a decade.
- Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies - He may cost $40-plus in some leagues in 2011 but he has the ability to provide quite a profit at that price. One of the few true 40/40 threats in MLB.
- Buster Posey, San Francisco - The next great catcher in baseball is Buster Posey.
- Adrian Beltre, (hopefully) Boston Red Sox - Assuming that he stays in Boston and the Red Sox get their key players back healthy and fill in their holes with quality, Beltre could lead Baseball in RBI.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Coming into the American League Championship Series against the Yankees, the Texas Rangers were undersold. They were undersold because of their starting pitching. Their second- and third-best starting pitchers (C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis) are almost as good as the Yankees’ best starting pitcher (C.C. Sabathia), or at least they are in 2010. This should have been obvious to every avid baseball fan, at least, and we shouldn’t be surprised that the Rangers hold a 3-games-to-1 lead as I write this.
Let’s look at some numbers that tell us about underlying performance, shall we.
Here are the 2010 FIP’s (Fielding Independent Pitching on an ERA scale, from FanGraphs.com) for Cliff Lee, Sabathia, Lewis and Wilson:
Lee’s FIP was the second-best in all of baseball. Clearly he’s the best starting pitcher we’ll see in this series. But it may come as a surprise that Sabathis, Lewis and Wilson were essentially equal at least in terms of FIP.
Here are their 2010 WAR’s (Wins Above Replacement, again from FanGraphs):
Sabathia has a bigger edge in WAR than in FIP but it’s still closer than most fans probably realize. The gap between Lee and Sabathia is greater than the gap between Sabathia, Wilson and Lee. Lee let major league pitchers in WAR, Sabathia was 13th and Wilson and Lewis were tied at 18th with Dan Haren. No other Yankees pitcher was in the top 35 while the Rangers had three pitchers in the top 18.
Here are their ERA+ (ERA adjusted for league and parks, this from BaseballReference.com):
Things are a little more bunched up here. Sabathia looks better here than he does in the other statistics we’ve looked at, actually out-shining Lee. But this stat is based on ERA, and ERA is influenced by defense and luck. While ERA+ takes into account league and parks, it does not account for defense and luck. So it is not a great measure of the fundamental, underlying performance level of a pitcher; it’s much more results-based than performance-based.
Cliff Lee is obviously head-and-shoulders above any pitcher we’ve seen or will see in the ALCS and quite possibly in the playoffs. But the Rangers have two other starters that are almost as good as any starter their ALCS opponent has or will throw at them. Many probably overrated the bigger names of Sabathia and Pettite and overlooked the 2010 performances of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis. But name recognition doesn’t always mean more talent, at least not current talent level.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
POSEY, FELIZ WIN TWO-MAN RACES FOR WILLIE MAYS AWARD
The battle for the Willie Mays Award, given by the Baseball Bloggers Alliance
Feliz posted a 2.73 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP while tallying 40 saves and helping Texas into the postseason for the first time since 1999. Feliz only blew three save opportunities while fashioning a 3.94 strikeout to walk ratio.
Feliz garnered eighteen first-place votes and 102 points overall, finishing 22 points ahead of Jackson, who received six nods at the top of the ballot.
Posey did not begin the season in the major leagues, but did so much with his time in San Francisco that voters selected him as the National League’s top rookie. Posey hit .305 and slugged .505 in just 108 games, tallying 18 home runs and 67 RBI after his callup at the end of May. Posey’s offense helped San Francisco make up ground and eventually pass San Diego for the divisional crown.
Posey received 103 total points, including fifteen first-place selections, to outpace Heyward by 17 points. Heyward received ten first-place votes for his work in helping Atlanta secure the National League Wild Card.
The complete voting results are as follows (first place votes in parenthesis):
Danny Valencia, Minnesota 16
Brian Matusz, Baltimore (1) 12
Brennan Boesch, Detroit 11
Wade Davis, Tampa Bay 3
John Jaso, Tampa Bay 3
Buster Posey, San Francisco (15) 103
Jason Heyward, Atlanta (10) 86
Jaime Garcia, St. Louis 20
Starlin Castro, Chicago 7
Ike Davis, New York 7
Gaby Sanchez, Florida (1) 6
Tyler Colvin, Chicago 2
Mike Stanton, Florida 2
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh 2
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was formed in the fall of 2009 to encourage cooperation and collaboration between baseball bloggers of all major league teams as well as those that follow baseball more generally. As of this writing, the organization consists of 233blogs spanning all 30 major league squads as well as general baseball writing.
The BBA is organized under a similar structure as the Baseball Writers of America, where blogs that follow the same team are combined into “chapters” and only two votes from the chapter on an award are counted. The blog chapters that are focused on general baseball were allowed two votes as well, which they could use both on the same league or split between the two leagues.
Chapters generally followed one of two methods when casting their ballot. Either representatives of the chapter were given the ballots for voting or a “group ballot” was posted, accounting for both of their votes.
Ballots are posted on the respective blogs and tabulated on a 5-3-1 point scale for first, second and third. In the interest of transparency, links are given below for the ballots. Chapter affiliation is in parenthesis. Those chapters that decided on the group method are noted with an asterisk.
Camden Crazies (Baltimore)*
Boston Red Thoughts (Boston)*
The Tribe Daily (Cleveland)*
Detroit Tigers Scorecard (
Seth Speaks (Minnesota)
Twins Target (Minnesota)
Bronx Baseball Daily (New York)*
Contract Year (Oakland)
Rise of the Rays (Tampa Bay)
Tampa Bay Rays News (Tampa Bay)
Baseball Is My Boyfriend (
500 Level Fan (Toronto)
Advanced Fantasy Baseball (
Victoria Seals Baseball Blog (
Prose and Ivy (Chicago)*
Cincinnati Reds Blog (
Marlins Diehards (Florida)
Feeling Dodger Blue (Los Angeles)
Bernie’s Crew (Milwaukee)*
Brewers Bar (Milwaukee)*
The Eddie Kranepool Society (
Phighting On (Philadelphia)
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van
i70 Baseball (St. Louis)
Pitchers Hit Eighth (St. Louis)
Friar Forecast (San Diego)*
22gigantes (San Francisco)*
Advanced Fantasy Baseball (
Victoria Seals Baseball Blog (
Ballots that were unofficial or helped make up their chapter ballot:
The official website of the BBA is located at www.baseballbloggersallianc