New York Mets Online: Off-Season Roundtable

Brian Joura of New York Mets Online invited me to participate in a round table discussion of the New York Mets off-season thus far and where they should go from here. I thought I was an interesting choice considering my years as a New York Yankees blogger. Check out this excerpt.

Mets Online Roundtable: The Off-Season

...There are some that would suggest the Mets sign an outfielder but they can afford to wait. The Mets should find out if Dan Murphy could be an everyday starter for them. The Mets have also refused to part with outfield prospect Fernando Martinez who would be part of the Mets 2010 outfield if all goes well. Signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn would not only be expensive but it would block the Mets’ younger players. If Ramirez and Dunn become bargains that the Mets can’t resist they should go for Dunn rather than Ramirez. Dunn at the very least can be moved to first base in 2010 when Carlos Delgado becomes a free agent...

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Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

I usually avoid the top ten lists that you see on most fantasy sites. This is primarily because I find there is very little value in a list of players without scouting reports or evaluations of some kind that let the reader know why "Player A" is listed ahead of "Player B". This is why I have zero problem with suggesting you read this very interesting comparison between the Top 100 Outfielder lists of The Sporting News and Fanball.com fantasy baseball magazines and the list of my friend Paul Sporer of Baseball By Paul.
A small sample:

The Milledge difference seems to be a stark difference of opinion. My love for Milledge in 2009 could start reaching Jason Collette-Nelson Cruz levels by the spring. Meanwhile, fanball is less than impressed with the budding outfielder. The accompanying capsule for Milledge said they were put off by his streakiness which isn’t a totally unfair critique. It’s easier for me to overlook the month-to-month swings since I play roto leagues almost exclusively. If he avoids the slow start he had in 2008 and doesn’t miss an entire as he did last July, I can’t see how he doesn’t show growth in 2009.

The Tattooed Titan, Josh Hamilton, fell pretty deep in their top 20. I remember thinking I might have been overrating him at six and it seems that the fanball guys would seem to say I did in fact. However, if they look at my rating of sixth among outfielders and think I was generous compared to their 18 slotting, I wonder what they thought of Yahoo!’s Brandon Funston rating him ninth OVERALL on his initial Big Board of 2009.

Now just for the hell of it, my top 15 outfielders. I won't allow you to hold me to it in drafts because it changes frequently but this is what it looks like right now.

1. Grady Sizemore - You can't go too wrong starting with 40/40

2. Ryan Braun - Everyone's favorite slugger steals a few bases too

3. BJ Upton - A 30/30 season would not shock me, in fact I expect one

4. Matt Kemp - This is the guy I want in every draft this season

5. Josh Hamilton - Others may doubt him, but I have faith he'll deserve this ranking

6. Matt Holliday - The change of teams won't be a problem

6. Carl Crawford - One injury-marred season after a long string of great ones

8. Carlos Beltran - Always better than expected

9. Carlos Lee - A stud slugger, in a great ballpark

10. Jason Bay - Fenway and the Red Sox lineup are big positives

11. Nick Markakis - Only a dozen stolen bases keep him from the top five

12. Curtis Granderson - He could very well be number one in 2010

13. Shane Victorino - He could have a 20/40 season this year

14. Ichiro Suzuki - Another boring .330, 50 stolen base season

15. Manny Ramirez - The decline is coming but he isn't done yet

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Ranking the Red Sox Rotation

The Red Sox have gone buy crazy. It seems they want every discounted, injury prone player on the market. In the last two weeks they've added outfielder Rocco Baldelli, outfielder/first baseman Mark Kotsay, starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz, and now former Dodgers closer, Takashi Saito.

The Red Sox rotation now has the following candidates: (the names all link to their fangraph pages)

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Justin Masterson
Junichi Tazawa
Brad Penny
John Smoltz
Clay Buchholz

What does this say about the Red Sox thinking? Are they just pouncing on deals? Or are they worried about the health and effectiveness of their top four starters? It is very tough to tell right now. We can probably assume that with the additions, Jonathan Masterson will be in the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa is likely to start in double A Portland.

• Josh Beckett has been marketed as their ace (I happen to think that both Dice-K and Lester will be better pitchers this season) so he is definitely a lock. Dice-K, despite the walks last season is a lock for the number two spot. Jon Lester flashed top of the rotation form last season and I expect him to be number three. But that is about as far as you can guarantee the spots.
• Tim Wakefield prefers starting but has always been willing to fill whatever role the team needs him to fill. He could easily fit in as a long reliever. His knuckleball probably isn't a good candidate for the higher leverage innings. But because of his longevity he will likely at least begin the season as the number four starter.
• Brad Penny seems to be healthy right now, though he was injured when the 2008 season came to a close. When healthy Penny can bea very effective pitcher but has also been inconsistent throughout his career. He is probably the favorite to start as the number five starter but he has quite a bit of quality competition.
• Clay Buchholz was disappointing in 2008 but has the talent to be a frontline starter on playoff team. He had some control problems that he hadn't encountered previously. He also appeared to be very unlucky with BABIP of .366 (average is between .290 and .310 most seasons). So with a bit of better luck and regaining his previous control combined with a groundball rate of almost 48 percent and a MLB career 8.57 K/9 we can expect much better things.
• John Smoltz if healthy could be the number one starter, even on a team with a rotation this loaded. But if his health were a certainty he would probably still be a Brave (at the very least he would have commanded a much larger guaranteed contract). Most reports have him out until at least May but John Smoltz himself has disputed this. He has claimed that he can be ready in April. I have a hard time doubting him because the man has bounced back from more seriously injuries and quickly at that. If he is ready in April he is clearly going to bump someone from the rotation. The Red Sox obviously believe it as well, judging by the significant guarantee they gave a 41-year old pitcher coming off shoulder problems. Smoltz could be a nice sleeper option since he is likely to come with a large health-related discount.

The Red Sox bullpen is growing as crowded as their rotation and yet they refuse to part with pitching prospect, Clay Buchholz, in a deal for the young catcher they want so badly. If everyone is healthy I see the Red Sox rotation forming like this:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
John Smoltz
Brad Penny

with Buchholz in the minors, and Masterson and Wakefield in the bullpen.

Couch Managers Slow Mock Draft

I just finished a slow mock draft that I did with a bunch of the guys from RotoJunkie. We used a relatively new service called Couch Managers. The draft interface works well enough but seemed a little glitchy at times. I also thought the page was a little too colorful and busy (says the guys with the black&white blog). Couch Managers will not be replacing Mock Draft Central any time soon but it is completely useable and if you do a lot of mock drafts it might be a nice change of scenery.

You can check out the complete results here. The rotojunkie thread linked to above is the discussion the drafters are having about their own drafts and the Couch Managers website.

Here is my team:

C Ryan Doumit (6) - I like Doumit here and I like to have at least one strong catcher.
C Benji Molina (11) - Computer pick -eh, I'm not a big fan but I have no huge problem with it.

1B Justin Morneau (3) - A top first baseman who is an annual MVP candidate.
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (13) - A fine pick but not a favorite of mine.
CR Adrian Beltre (14) - I love having him in a contract year.

2B Brian Roberts (4) - I love Roberts, he is a consistent stolen base stud.
SS JJ Hardy (7) - I like Hardy and his power a lot, streaks and all.
MI Jason Bartlett (20) - I like he'll improve his batting average and steal more bases in 2009.

OF Josh Hamilton (1) - Love everything about him.
OF BJ Upton (2) - A 30/50 season would not surprise me at all.
OF Pat Burrell (12) - I wanted a power boost and the bat should provide.
OF Justin Upton (17) - I had too many established vets and wanted to see some upside.
OF Carlos Gomez (19) - Grabbing those steals and hoping he continues to improve.

Utl Mike Cameron (21) - A 20/20 guy in the 21st round.

P Carlos Zambrano (8) computer pick - I wouldn't have but if he's healthy he should be fine.
P John Lackey (9) computer pick - but I like it. One of my favorites.
P AJ Burnett (10) computer pick - eh I think the thrill of a pennant might provide a heart injection.
P Scott Baker (15) - He'll take another step up this season.
P Brandon Morrow (16) - He'll either become a solid starter or the Mariner's closer.
P Andrew Miller (23) - I love his upside, he was unlucky in 2008.

RP JJ Putz (22) - My considerable gut tells me K-Rod gets injured.
RP Joey Devine (18) - One of the better relievers in MLB last season and now getting saves.
RP Jonathan Papelbon (5) - A top three closer on a great team.

Sleeper Alert: Brett Gardner

Everyone loves to hate the New York Yankees. Everyone always assumes that having more money than anyone else by a significant margin makes it easy to be better than the other teams. To a certain degree, this is true. However, having more money than the other teams also comes with a significant set of disadvantages.


One disadvantage is you tend to have extremely expensive star players. This makes changing the direction of the team sort of like putting the pin back in the grenade – it would have been better not to have pulled the pin in the first place but now you had better throw that thing as far as you can. So, when GM Brian Cashman decides he want to have a stronger farm system, better pitching and a stronger defense it takes quite a bit of doing. Unlike the Tampa Bay Rays who can just dump their shortstop and trade for a rookie defensive specialist, the Yankees cannot just release Derek Jeter or send Bobby Abreu packing. Cashman has to wait out contracts and bide his time.


And take advantage of opportunities.


The 2009 season will provide the Yankees with an opportunity to do something that Brian Cashman has publically confessed he wants to do. Improve the defense (especially up the middle) and get younger. Installing Brett Gardner in center field accomplishes both of those goals. The Yankees outfield as described here is presently pretty crowded.


Here are the current Yankees outfielders and their defensive rating by UZR:


Johnny Damon LF (19.9 ) CF ( -3.0 )
Xavier Nady LF (-1.2) CF ( -41.0) RF (0.5)
Nick Swisher LF ( 6.3 ) CF ( -10.3 ) RF ( 14.2 )
Melky Cabrera CF (-11.3)
Brett Gardner LF (24.3) CF (40.2)
Hideki Matsui LF (-15.2 )


Since Matsui is likely the DH in any case, we will place him there and take him out of this part of the discussion. Johnny Damon is clearly the best candidate for left field when we combine his offense and defense and his likely role as the Yankees leadoff hitter. Melky Cabrera's track record of lousy offense should remove him from the conversation as well. His defense just is not good enough to justify an everyday role while contributing zero to the offense. Xavier Nady's defense in center is much worse than Gardner's and Swisher's so he is not a candidate to play center field. Brett Gardner's offensive potential and superior defense makes him clearly the best possible center fielder for the Yankees.

What is that offensive potential?


In the minor leagues, he averaged a 13.6 walk percentage (good), and a 20.36 strikeout percentage (also pretty good). This means he puts the ball in play about 80 percent of the time. Thanks to his very good speed on the bases, he is able to collect many infield hits. He has averaged a .360 minor league BABIP. Taken together, this indicates that Gardner should be able to hit for a solid average and maintain a strong on-base percentage. He has zero homerun power; any homeruns he hits should be considered flukes. His fantasy value will lay in his batting average and stolen bases. In 381 minor league games, he attempted 182 stolen bases at a success rate of 83 percent. I fully expect Gardner to be the Yankees' leadoff hitter in 2010 but in 2009 he is likely to bat ninth. Fortunately, in the Yankees lineup there isn't really a bad place to hit. He should still score plenty of runs. He will not drive in many runs but in fantasy baseball, you rarely get everything you need from one player. Gardner should be a slightly better version of Juan Pierre. Better because of his superior on-base skills, not because he will steal more bases.


Brett Gardner will never be a first round pick in a typical fantasy draft but he can be quite useful. He should be drafted in every AL-only league and in the deeper mixed leagues. Even shallower mixed leagues should have Gardner on their follow list.

The Hot Stove Holiday Hits

The latest edition of the Hot Stove Junkie is available at RotoExperts.com, as always the first hit is free...

The Chicago Cubs acquired minor league right-handers Jeff Stevens and Chris Archer and minor league lefty John Gaub from the Cleveland Indians for 2B/3B Mark DeRosa. This was just a few hours after signing 2B Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.
The Indians traded a trio of prospects that were not on even the most optimistic prospect lists for a top second baseman. If the world made sense, they would install Mark DeRosa as their second baseman and slide mediocre at best shortstop, Jhonny Peralta to third base, and move Asdrubal Cabrera (a minor league defensive whiz) to shortstop. It would make Cabrera’s questionable bat fit in the lineup better. However, most of all it would improve the infield defense that right-handed starter Fausto Carmona depends on for his success. Unfortunately, the Indians swear that DeRosa is now a third baseman.
DeRosa (in case you have been asleep) is a very good hitter. In 2008, he hit .285/.376/.481 with 21 homers. His walk and strikeout rates both increased slightly. I take this as a sign that he was exercising greater patience and looking for pitches he could really drive. This is an awesome pickup for the Indians (even if they do screw up and move him to third) and fantasy owners in American League only leagues get a new slugger in the infield.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Books and Annuals

For fantasy baseball owners it is officially baseball season. Fantasy Baseball Junkies are searching every nook and cranny of the internet searching for the best information, the best software (you're choosing Diamond Draft, right?), the best magazines, and of course the best books. Some of these also appeared in the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List.

I'm always trying to be helpful so I put together this list of my favorite fantasy baseball books. They aren't all new but they are all useful and good reading.






The Bill James Handbook is the original guide to projecting and analyzing player performance. Every season i learn something new from this book. It could be that Jason Giambi, despite his bulk, is actually a great base runner. Or it could be that Bobby Abreu despite his speed is a lousy outfielder. If nothing else James deserves your support for helping make the statistical study of baseball what it is today.

As Bill James is to actual baseball, Ron Shandler and his Baseball Forecaster is to fantasy baseball. No one has helped fantasy leaguers win more than Shandler and the guys from Baseball HQ. From his unique game strategies such as the LIMA Plan and Portfolio 3, to his DOM/DIS listings, and scarily accurate player analysis. I feel naked without it (you don't want to see that).

The guys that write the annual Baseball Prospectus aren't fantasy guys but they all acknowledge that without the fantasy baseball crowd they wouldn't be making any money. I've preached (or raved?) about putting player moves into the proper context as the key to winning at fantasy baseball. Well this is the book that does it better than any other. Not only do you get extensive write ups on each teams and the smart and dumb things that they do, but you also get write-ups on every player that matters. If that isn't enough, its a true page turner. This is like a 1000-page fantasy baseball magazine. The writers are funny and engaging ina way that keeps you from putting it down so you can get to work on time in the morning. Perhaps, I've said too much...

Fantasy Land by Sam Walker is a great book. It doesn't give you any real fantasy baseball information, at least not the type that you bring with you on draft day. But it does express some of what we all love about this game. That competitive drive to win. The decision making process during the season. It also describes a dream for all fantasy leaguers - playing in the ultimate fantasy league, Tout Wars.

How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball is the original manual to creating your own fantasy baseball auction values. Art McGee applies concepts from economics, finance, and statistics to develop a pricing method that far surpasses any other published. His method is highly sophisticated, yet McGee explains it in terms that any fantasy baseball owner can understand and apply.



Baseball America is the definitive source of minor league and prospect information for almost the entire baseball industry. They lean heavily to the scouting side of things which is why you also need more numbers oriented evaluations like those you get from...

The Minor League Baseball Analyst is a companion book to Baseball HQ's Forecaster. Deric McKamey does for minor leaguers what Ron Shandler does for the major leaguers. I love having a few different prospect manuals so I can compare and contrast the scouting reports with the statistical profiles.

The 2009 John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book
John Sickels is one of the best minor league analysts in the business. His book includes extensive lists on all of the prospects with a letter grade to help you easily understand their level of talent.



Last but by no means least is Peter Golenbock's How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball. I love this book. I re-read it often. The advice isn't profound and it won't actually help you win but it might help you love rotisserie baseball just a little bit more (as if you needed the help). Plus, since it's out of print you can buy it via Amazon.com for about 64 cents. You can't beat that with a stick.

The Waiver Wire

The Waiver Wire is a blog written by one of my RotoJunkie brothers. The site is very different from a lot of fantasy baseball blogs that you may have experienced. Most of the articles are just short hits on players and different game strategies. It is a blast to read.

One of my readers commented on my post on Mike Pelfrey that he's a similar pitcher to Armando Galarraga. I don't completely agree that they'll put up similar stats, but they are probably about equally good pitchers. Galarraga has a slightly better K/BB ratio (6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) and is doing it in the tougher league. Pelfrey makes up for that by doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground - Galarraga had a 43.5% groundball rate last season...not bad, but significantly worse than Pelfrey.

The Waiver Wire is dedicated to helping you manage your team throughout the season with strategy advice and player profiles, with a focus on leagues with daily transactions.

The Bradley/Burrell Deals and other Fantasy Baseball Links

Some links I think you'll enjoy.

Battle Of The Fantasy Gods Draft Tonight
I participated in this expert league a couple of years ago. I came in second or third I believe. The wierd thing about expert leagues is that everyone wants to look good so they are annoying inactive sometimes. Trades are non-existent. This league is a little bit different in that the names and reps are less hyped so they have less to lose by going out on limbs. It makes what happens in the league a lot more relevant to your leagues.

• Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
• Geoff Stein - Mock Draft Central
• Scott White - CBS Sports
• Brad Stewart - MLB Front Office
• Tim McLeod - Roto Rob
• Troy Patterson - Fantasy Pros 911
• Todd Farino - Fantasy Baseball Search
• Brian Fitzsimmons - Sports Buff
• Jeff Boggis - Fantasy Sports Empires
• Mojo Moshovetis - Crucial Sports
• Chris McDonnell - FantasyBaseball.com

ESPN.com
The link does not connect to a specific article. I just think that the revamping of ESPN's website is something that will interest every sports fan. I do like the new design so far. The pages definitely seem to build faster. There are also links to all the columnists on the main page. It's worth checking out.

Pat Burrell signs with the Tampa Bay Rays
I love this move for the Rays and I have yet to run into anyone who thinks otherwise. This has been a great offseason for the AL Champs. They signed a new set-up man in Joe Nelson. They traded for a power hitting right-fielder, Matt Joyce. And now they've signed a full time designated hitter who should be as good a DH as anyone else in the AL has. The article linked above is Rob Neyer's take on things.

What a fantastic move. As you've no doubt read, this winter there's a buyer's market for sluggardly sluggers like Burrell and Giambi. Burrell earned roughly $28 million with the Phillies over the past two seasons. That was too much. Because of his obvious limitations -- he's not only a left fielder, but a poor one -- he was really worth something like $20 million over those two seasons. He's in his early 30s now, and moving to the better league's best division, so we may assume he'll be worth less than $20 million over the next two seasons.

Milton Bradley Agrees To Deal With Cubs
I like this deal for the Cubs and Bradley. I have heard a few grumbles about it based on his durability and defense but I think those are a bit over blown. I actually was surprised the Texas Rangers didn't find a way to keep him around.

In an effort to free up some salary for Bradley, the Cubs are expected on Tuesday to finalize a deal to send Jason Marquis to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for reliever Luis Vizcaino, MLB.com reported Monday.

Adding Bradley was one of the top priorities this offseason for the Cubs, who got swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year after a lineup loaded with right-handers struggled against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Last Player Picked
I discovered a great new site today (mostly because they linked to yesterday's article on Keepers). This site has an excellent analysis based blog and an awesome Price Guide feature that uses various sets of projections and the criteria you enter to produce fantasy baseball dollar values for your league. This is a great device, check it out.

You may have noticed that the CHONE projections have recently been added as an option on the Price Guide. These are stat projections that have done quite well in the past couple years at predicting the actual stats. One especially interesting aspect are the projections for players with little MLB experience (or none at all).

Using the CHONE projections in the Price Guide, I generated dollar values for a standard mixed league that starts 14 hitters per team. Scanning through the results, I found several young hitters who have not yet seen significant time in the majors and whom CHONE projects as draftable players.

Top 100 Outfielders Part II
Paul of Baseball by Paul is a great analyst. In this piece he shares outfielders #11-50. You could quibble with the rankings but the analysis is spot on as usual. I especially like his projections for Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holliday.

46. Justin Upton, 21, Arizona Diamondbacks – It was an inconsistent season for the heralded youngster as he opened up white hot (five HR, .963 OPS in April) only to cool considerably (four HR, .177 AVG in May/June) and then suffer an injury that relegated him to just nine games across July and August. On the bright side, he finished strong with a .919 OPS in September that included four home runs as well. Strikeouts were a huge problem, but he also displayed a very strong eye even when he was at his lowest point of the season (35 walks in 50 games spanning May/June). As a whole, the 2008 season wasn’t too bad for Upton when you consider his quick ascent to the majors and the highly useful skills he displayed prominently (power and batting eye). The lacking component that may’ve been falsely attributed to Upton in the first place was the speed. He managed just one stolen base while being caught four times. The 15 and 19 stolen bases during his two minor league season of 2006 & 2007 likely earned him the perceived ability but he was stealing at rates of 68% and 63%, respectively. This guy is a bona fide, but it remains to be seen if he is the power-speed combo that his brother, B.J. Upton, is for Tampa Bay. Buy into a couple more steps forward in 2009.

Your #1 Sleeper
Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority is imploring his giant audience to share their favorite sleepers. This should be interesting. As we've learned from Who Wants to be a Millionaire? the larger the consensus the more likely it is to be correct.

I'll kick it off with my own #1 sleeper: Nelson Cruz of the Rangers. Cruz had a ridiculous 2008. He hit .342/.429/.695 in 103 Triple A games, nailing 37 HR and swiping 24 bags. He did just as well in 115 ABs for the big club - .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR and 3 SBs.

Cruz has the potential to jack 30 HR for the Rangers in 2009. He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors, so the potential for double digit swipes looks strong too. He'll join current Texas mashers Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton.

Slow Mock Draft
I'm in the middle of my own slow mock draft which you'll be hearing about as soon as it completes. Winabango of Fantasy Gameday share the results of his slow mock...

Once again, it my turn to pick for the slow mock draft hosted by Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. To be completely honest, writing about the draft has really opened my eyes to its inter-workings. To this point I have selected a fairly conservative offensive base, which I like. With my last pick I was also able to adjust my strategy due to the large amount of top tier pitchers still available. As I stated in my last post regarding the draft, flexibility is the best strategy in any draft.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

Every season owners in keeper leagues spend weeks if not much longer agonizing over which players on their rosters should be kept. Should they keep just the huge bargains or is a $45 Alex Rodriguez or $31 CC Sabathia too good to pass up? How do you decide? Every league is going to be different. In some leagues a $31 Sabathia is a huge bargain, in others it is the height of stupidity. Today I give you ten criterion to consider as you struggle through these decisions.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

(In no particular order)

1. Was it a fluke? A fluke could be a great season or a lousy one. Look at the player's progression over the last few seasons. Does the last season fit in that progression? I like to look at BB percentage, K percentage, GB/LD/FB percentages, HR/FB and BABIP for hitters. For pitchers K/9, BB/9, GB/LD/FB percentage, BABIP, and FIP. These are the factors in a players performances that are usually consistent from season to season. If they are a young player making steady gains then a great season can be expected. If their rates have been steady and were basically the same during a disastrous (or wondrous) season there is reason to believe the performance could have been a fluke.
   
2. Would the player help you more from the Draft Pool? A $28 Josh Hamilton may not seem like much of a bargain on the surface. But if your league has significant inflation and Hamilton is certain to cost $40-45 or even more if you let him go, then be becomes a serious candidate to be kept, traded, or placed back in the pool. If you don't like his price compared to his expected performance then a trade should be attempted. Remember, just because you don't like a guy doesn't mean that others will not. Try to get his inflated value in a trade. Placing the player back in the pool can also be a good option if you believe he will be overbid. If one of your oppoenents will spend 15-20 dollars more than you believe a player will be worth that gives you an advantage over that owner (assuming that you're right).
3. Is the player acually good or just cheap? Your five dollar outfielder may typically earn five dollars but that doesn't mean he's worth keeping. One of the most valuable commodities you have are your roster spots. You should be attempting to fill each and every spot with as much value as possible. To commit to a player with an extremely limited ceiling robs you of the chance to find a significant bargain at the end of your draft. Every season in every league there are players who come out of nowhere to become fantasy studs. If you keep every Willie Bloomquist you have at value you rob yourself of the chance to roster late round bargains like the 2008 versions of outfielder Carlos Quentin, starter Cliff Lee, or catcher Kelly Shoppach.
4. Could you throw the player back and get him for the same price? In most leagues there is a limit to how long you can keep a player. If a player would basicly go for the same price that you have on him now, why not re-draft him and keep him longer. You might get him cheaper if he's called out at the right moment. By the same token he could end up going for more if you've read the market incorrectly. But if the player is someone you like long term it could be worth it for a longer term of service.
   
5. Who else is available? You could own a perfectly fine shortstop but if there are several vastly superior options and you clog your only available shortstop slot you'll be cutting yourself off from any potential bargains. It is a good idea to keep your roster flexible so if for some unexplainable reason the bidding on Troy Tulowitzki stops at $7 you can pounce all over it.
6. What does your budget look like in relation to the players you need? If you are spending 60 percent of your budget do you alsoH have at least 60 percent of the production you need to win the league? Can you get the remaining 40 percent that you need with what you have left? One of the things I always do before declaring my keepers is to calculate how much of the value I need is provided by my keepers. I'm usually not satisfied with 40 percent of my budget for 40 percent of my needs. So I tend to throw back players that are not bargains, even if they are at value. The exception being players at the top of the position rankings - I'lll keep an at value Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright and so forth but not an at value Derek Jeter, Trevor Hoffman or Bobby Abreu. The point is to pack as much value on your keeper list as possible balanced with keeping as many of your resources available for the auction as possible.
7. Are the types of players you need available? In keeper leagues the player pool can take strange turns. There could be just one available closer and only one or two top tier outfielders. If that is the case you might need to keep a mediocre closer or alter your strategy to avoid closers altogether at the auction. Maybe the pool is woefully short on power. You may need to keep a slightly overpriced A-Rod to ensure you reach the stats you need. It is vital that you compare the needs of your team to the players available in the auction. If there are too few options you may have to make some changes to your keeper list or to your auction strategy.
   
8. Who are your opponents keeping? You need to know who is in the player pool in order to make the best decisions on your keeper list. To do this you have to guess who your rivals are keeeping. In one of my leagues I've known owners to just call and ask. Usually I don't mind sharing this information to an extent. I tell the players I'm considering keeping and let them narrow it down themselves -- of course assuming that they'll do the same for me. This will help you figure out not just who is in the player pool but also what they might cost. This is extremely valuable knowledge.
   
9. How much is the inflation in your league? Calculating a rough estimate of the inflation in your league before keepers are declared can give you edge on the rest of the league. It will help you figure out what the players in the pool will cost while you still have the ability to alter your keeper list.
10. Can you win with this as your core? Your keeper list needs to provide you with a base of stats you can build on. This isn't the time to take chances. You look for upside in the auction. You need your keeper list to be as full of sure things as possible. However, just because Joe Blow expert with the magazine article doesn't like a guy doesn't mean that he isn't a sure thing, if you believe that he is. But you need to be honest about the size of the risk you are taking. If the player in question only costs a buck and you aren't keeping him ahead of anyone better then that should be fine. But if the player in question cost $22 and he has yet to experience major league success and nothing but a hunch suggests that he can this season, you need to look at things again.
    

Do you have other questions you ask yourself or items to consider when forming your keeper list? If so, please share them.

Jeff Moorad Quits D-Backs to Buy the Padres

Jeff Moorad, the CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks has quit that position to pursue the purchase of the San Diego Padres. It appears that he has the inside track. This could be a huge development for the Padres. Moorad grew up in Southern California and has wanted this for a long time. It is pretty easy to envision him maximizing the payroll and allowing the Padres to keep their best players like first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and right-handed starter Jake Peavy, who are becoming expensive. This is definitely a situation to watch.

From Yahoo.com:

PHOENIX (AP)—Jeff Moorad has resigned as Arizona Diamondbacks chief executive officer and says he has reached an agreement in principle to buy the San Diego Padres.

Moorad said Friday he heads a “small but significant” group of investors that has an exclusive right to complete the specifics of negotiations with Padres owner John Moores. Moorad said he hopes the transaction can be completed in the next three months.

Moorad said he has a long friendship with Moores and his wife, Becky, whose divorce precipitated the Padres’ potential sale.

Discussions on the potential purchase became extensive after Moores hired Goldman Sachs to oversee the sale of the club in late November, Moorad said.

“We have a lot of work to do,” Moorad said on a conference call, “but John and Becky and the folks at Goldman Sachs have been very attentive and focused as I intend to be over the next month or so. I’m hopeful that we can get to the finish line.”

The Moores reportedly own 90 percent of the Padres. Community property laws in California give Becky Moores a 50 percent share of that asset and she must agree to any sale.

Fantasy Baseball Links

The Xavier Nady Debate
I've already declared Nady my choice as right-fielder for the Yankees. The guys at River Ave Blues (one of the best New York Yankees blogs in the business) are still thinking it over. They do a great job of explaining why Nady deserves the regular job.

He has steadily improved from being a platoon player who only hit lefties, to one who hit righties better than lefties last season. Even if that was a peak year for him, if he was to revert to his 2007 line he would still be a fine everyday player and a good replacement for Abreu, especially when you factor in his value as a (slightly better than league average) fielder, and Abreu being the worst RF in the AL by most measures.

Fantasy Pros 911
This site launched on New Years Day and already has loads of interesting stuff to read. Minor league coverage, injury reports, experts leagues, reader contests and tons more. I spent a couple of hours there this morning and I never spend that much time on one site.

If you have listened to my Daily Podcasts you should know,"The Best Time To Prepare For Fantasy Baseball IS NOW! In addition to reading and listening to Podcasts,you should also be doing the following: 1.Make sure you retrieve LAST YEARS FINAL stats of your leagues catagories.You will need to refer to last years stats as you formulate your team 2.Begin to compile a list by position ,of ALL players you feel will be drafted in your league...

A Tough Act To Follow
Ok, my Yankees fandom is showing. However, the guys at this site are some of the best writers on the net. They are always worth reading. This isn't much of a post but I'mcrazy about the new MLB network so any chance tomentionit is alright with me.
The MLB Network launches this evening at 6pm (EST) and will celebrate by airing the unedited original broadcast of Don Larson’s perfect game (including original commercials!) at 7pm, the first time it has been shown to a mass audience since it happened 52 years ago. You can find the new network’s location in your channel lineup by using MLB’s channel locator here.

Why I’m enthusiastic about the MLB Network
Derek from USS Mariner nails exactly why the new MLB network is such a great idea. Not to mention the potentialfor fantasy baseball participants. There is no better place to read up on the Mariners than this site. It should be in the bookmarks of everyone who plays fantasy baseball.

...drawing in new people in other ways and converting them to dedicated fans of the game. I’d love to see shows with different managers talking about strategies, and you could do some amazing things walking through big decisions in their careers. I’m not a Tony LaRussa fan, but I’d love to spend an hour hearing him talk about how his bullpen management philosophy came about, and where he thinks it’s won games and where it’s failed him. Earl Weaver’s still alive — put that guy in front of a camera and start showing him game footage. I’ll bet it’d be must-watch television...

Mastersball 2.0
One of the best fantasy sites that ever existed was swallowed up by fantasybaseball.coma couple of years ago. This was the site that brought Jason Grey (now with ESPN) and Todd Zola (one of the better number crunchers) to our attention. The message board was one of the best in the business, right up there with the RotoJunkie Bullpen and the Baseball HQ message board (paid members only). Be sure to check out their triumphant return.

We simply could not wait another minute! Instead of building a fully functional website with all the bells and whistles, we decided to launch once the core functions were working. It is too close to the start of the season to do otherwise. Our hard-core readers expect nothing less.

Mark DeRosa is traded to the Indians….and the Twins couldn’t top THAT deal?
Okay, I admit I'm a Yankees fan living in Boston and I secretly love listening to teams cry about why their team is still better than another team. Even if they weren't smart enough to pull off the same great deal.

Jeff Stevens. Chris Archer. Jon Gaub. Those three pitchers - none of them highly touted - helped Cleveland raise the stakes in the A.L. Central. They were traded by the Indians to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa, a player the Twins coveted during the winter meetings but couldn’t find a, `match,’ with Chicago. DeRosa, 33 and in the final year of his contract, joins the Tribe after batting .285 last season with 30 doubles, 21 homers and 87 RBI. Those numbers sure would have looked nice at third base for the Twins. My first reaction was to grab a copy of Baseball America’s Top 10 A.L. Central prospects. Stevens, Archer and Gaub were not listed among Cleveland’s top ten prospects. My second reaction was to click onto John Sickels minor league baseball site and look up his list of Cleveland’s top 20 prospects for 2009. Unless my eyes deceived me - I haven’t begun to ring in the New Year yet - none of those pitchers were listed there, either.

Red Sox made play for SS Ramirez
I never for even one second believed that the Marlins would deal Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox. Not just a few months after signing him to a very club friendly extension. The Red Sox are desperate to add a big bat to their lineup. They seem to have some serious doubts about what Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie will contribute to their lineup. This is easy to understand because despite the flash in the rotation this is a team built around its mashing lineup...which isn't mashing quite so much anymore.

It was originally believed that these recent discussions came after Boston lost out in the running for Mark Teixeira, who signed an eight-year, $180 million deal with the Yankees last week, but in fact, they were held a few weeks prior to that. Though the Red Sox can't quite match the Yankees dollar for dollar (Boston was believed to be offering at least $170 million over eight guaranteed years plus two additional years that could be voided by the team based on plate appearances), Boston is willing to think creatively to try to enhance its offense.

What A Putzy Deal!!!
I love the crusty old fantasy sports veterans. Charlie is like our industry's Bob Ryan. You don't always agree with him but you're always interested in what he might have to say.

...the ‘09 draft will be filled with a lot of guesswork on whom the closers will be. Do your homework, and you can use this to your advantage. And while you’re at it, don’t forget about Putz. Our fantasy injury guru Rick Wilton has been predicting KRod is going down with an arm injury for the last three years. Having signed the big contract, Frankie might try a little too hard to impress the New York fans, and Mr. Wilton’s prophecy might come true. A late round or reserve pick of Putz could reap big rewards...

FSWA Award Nominations

RotoExperts.com is nominating me for a few of the annual fantasy baseball writing awards from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. I thought it might be valuable to post links to some of my most popular work from RotoExperts.com. These are just clips, click the links to read the full articles.

Moving Up / Moving Down - This is a series that ran during the season. It usually featured a list of players on the upswing or sinking fast. The clips that follow the Headline Links are just the introductions to the articles in most cases.

A Tale of Two Halves

She didn’t bother knocking. She also didn’t enter the room like a normal person; instead, she turned the knob and gave my office door a small shove. Only when the door was completely open did she deign to enter. And what an entrance it was. She had it all, everything a growing boy needs in a woman. She wore a blood red dress, strapless and sleeveless, that covered her from breastbone to ankles, yet it still left little to the imagination. She walked toward me, one agonizingly beautiful step at a time. As I absently wiped the drool from my chin with my sleeve, she bent over my desk and gave me the once over.

“Are you him,” she said with a shoulder shrug towards the name on my door. “I hope so, because I really need your help.”

I leaned back in my chair and swung a foot onto my desk, as I considered all the things I might be able to do to help this damsel in distress. The truth is... I had just decided to take a last look at my Google Reader before calling it a night. But she wasn’t exactly waiting for me to make a decision.

“I must have listened to some bad advice, because now my entire organization is a mess. I need someone like you to help me get a handle on it. I heard that you were the best and that you also, you know, work cheap.”

I gave her a brief nod and put both feet on the floor as she slid a neatly-typed sheet of names at me. As I scanned the list I started to feel for the girl. This was one of the worst fantasy baseball teams I’d ever laid eyes upon; every name was a first-half disaster. I had to help her, so I quickly identified the worst performers, figuring we could dump these losers and take an immediate step forward. She wasn’t having it; she wanted to know the “why” of every move. So, I slid over to my ancient desktop, tilted the monitor in her direction and pulled up some stats so I could break it down for this poor babe in red.

June > September

Fantasy Baseball has several persistent myths that never seem to go away. In my fantasy advice writing, I’ve made an annual attempt to dispel one that never fails to bother me – the myth that makes September out to be such a great month. September is better than June? Please don’t bother me with that noise. Do a few Back-to-School sales or orange and red leaves make a great month?

Sure, I know what you’re about to suggest: the reason September is so great is because of all those great prospects that are called up to fill out rosters. Major League rosters expand and teams allow their future superstars to get a taste of the good stuff. This provides the fantasy also-rans with an opportunity to gorge on freely available talent, with the hope that some of them become keeper-worthy come next March. I understand the reasoning, but September has absolutely nothing on the month of June.

June is a better month in a lot of ways. School is ending instead of just beginning as it is in September – there is no need to waste your hard-earned money on books, binders, and new sweaters. Instead, put on your favorite jeans (cut off at the knees if that suits you), grab a glass of lemonade, and sit on the porch listening to your old Run-DMC albums. Moreover, baseball is not practically finished in June as it is in September – it is just getting going. The guys who you thought might never get it going are suddenly in prime form. You can start believing that your favorite end-game acquisition just might be for real. As for the prospects...oh, man! The prospects called up in June are so much better than the versions you see in September.

A Chat With My Fantasy Team

It was not exactly an intervention. It was more like a State of the Union address, though instead of telling Congress what they wanted to hear, I was giving the members of my various fantasy squads a chance to praise, criticize, and berate each other as well as me. I have to admit, it's much more fun that way. A quick look around the room assured me that everyone I had invited (and a few I had made a point of not inviting) had arrived.

Just as I was about to get things started one of those uninvited guests made a beeline to the podium. It was Robinson Cano, and he had a very smug look on his face.

“Hah! You told people to dump me but I’m having a great second half!”

“Congratulations Robbie. I’m very happy to have been wrong about you.”

“Why, I’m not on any of your teams. You know, since the All-Star break I’m batting .514 with three home runs and ten RBI.”

"Yes, Robbie. I was clearly wrong to suggest people dump you.”

After pulling that concession out of me, Cano turned and prissily walked away. (I made an obscene gesture at his back... and Kevin Millar laughed.) Cano is clearly Moving Up, but let's look at why that is. He has not changed his attitude at the plate. He has just one walk since the break. Cano has never been a big strikeout guy, but he is doing it even less with just two Ks since the break. That gives him a BABIP of about .562. If you think he can keep it up, or that it is not mostly luck, then you must also think that Cano is a certain-to-be-Hall-of-Famer.

I stepped up to the podium. I banged the gavel to bring the room to attention. I was making a few idle jokes as I checked that my index cards were in order. That was when I heard a small cough. It was not a throat-clearing cough. It was one of those "please pay attention to me" coughs. Of course, it was Eric Byrnes. He has not left me alone since my February prediction that he would never manage to steal 50 bases again. I guess it does not matter if I was one hundred percent correct about it. He was next to a guilty looking Shane Victorino, so I was sure I knew where this was going...

Future Sleepers

Every season there are players who seemingly come from out of nowhere to play a crucial part in your fantasy season. Sometimes these players fade away into that same ether that swallowed The Verve, Snow, and Vanilla Ice. There are also those that go on to become the next Wu-Tang, Jay-Z, or Will Smith (I still call him the Fresh Prince)...

Sleepers and Busts in Hindsight

If I had written the ultimate sleepers and busts article before the season, it should have resembled this one. Instead, like every other analyst on the planet, I had my fair share of hits and misses. The key to good fantasy analysis is not always being right; it is applying a system of evaluation that utilizes logic and reason rather than idle speculation and random guesses. I believe my analysis to be top rank, but man, oh man, do I wish I had been clairvoyant enough to assemble this list of sleepers and busts in February.

Playing For Keeps

Are you in a keeper league? I truly hope so. If you are not in a keeper league, please excuse me as I start to press your buttons. Playing in non-keeper leagues is like allowing yourself to be tortured endlessly by that kid in grade school who used to constantly call for a do-over. Remember him? I play in lots of non-keeper leagues, but when it is time to get serious, I turn to my AL, NL, and mixed keeper leagues. Anyone can get lucky and win a non-keeper league. You can also get unlucky and finish last. In keeper leagues, the cream usually rises to the top, because they involve more skill and greater effort. The strategy throughout the season is more complex, and the fight in your league mates is undying. In keeper leagues, even the also-rans have a reason to keep fighting. So, even if you love your non-keeper leagues, find a keeper league and learn what it's like to be in a real battle for roto excellence. There, did I convince you?

If you are in a keeper league, congratulations! You have been playing for keeps. This edition of Moving Up, Moving Down is dedicated to you. I have put together a list of the very best keepers in baseball. These are not just the obvious first round picks. These players, who were underpriced or undrafted this season, may just lead your squad to victory in 2009. If you already have these players on your roster, your future looks bright. Keep in mind that these are not the players having the best seasons in 2008. They're not even the players I necessarily want the most next season (but I do want them all). These are the players most likely to be great in 2009 and for years to come.

How the Teixeira Deal Changes the Yankees Outfield

Before the Mark Teixeira deal we were fairly certain that Nick Swisher would be playing everyday at first base. This made predicting the Yankees outfield fairly simple (before any new trades or free agent signings). Johnny Damon would be the regular left fielder, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera would share center field, and Xavier Nady would play right field. Hideki Matsui will be the everyday designated hitter and an extra outfielder. That gave the Yankees five outfielders which is the number that most teams carry on their 25-man rosters.

Upgrading the Defense

Teixeira is now the first basemman. This means Nick Swisher must get most of his at-bats as an outfielder. Swisher has played center field in the past but his defense there leaves much to be desired. One of the under reported aspects of the changes the Yankees are making this offseason is the improvement to the team defense which was not very good during the 2008 season as measured by UZR. The 2008 Yankees defense was -39.4 runs as measured by UZR, 28th in baseball. Two large factors in that measurement are no longer on the team - former right fielder Bobby Abreu (-25.9) and former first baseman Jason Giambi ( -2.5 ). Giambi has been replaced by Teixeira who was the best first baseman by UZR/150 at +10.1 in 2008. The Yankees also want to upgrade their outfield defense.

Defensive Potential

Johnny Damon LF (19.9 ) CF ( -3.0 )
Xavier Nady LF (-1.2) CF ( -41.0) RF (0.5)
Nick Swisher LF ( 6.3 ) CF ( -10.3 ) RF ( 14.2 )
Melky Cabrera CF ( -11.3 )
Brett Gardner LF (24.3) CF ( 40.2)
Hideki Matsui LF (-15.2 )

This makes the best possible defensive outfield for the Yankees -- Johnny Damon in left field (19.9), Brett Gardner in center field (40.2) and Nick Swisher in right field (14.2). But obviously the Yankees also need to consider offense which was not what they were expecting in 2008.

Offensive Potential

Johnny Damon (.373 wOBA in 2008, .349 wOBA career)
Xavier Nady (.374 wOBA in 2008, .342 wOBA career)
Nick Swisher (.325 wOBA in 2008, .347 wOBA career)
Melky Cabrera (.285 wOBA in 2008, .311 wOBA career)
Brett Gardner (career .358 wOBA in the minors, .380 wOBA 2008 at AAA, and .282 wOBA MLB)
Hideki Matsui (.348 wOBA in 2008, .366 wOBA career)

The Best of Both Worlds

Since Matsui is likely the DH is any case we'll place him there and take him out of this part of the discussion. Johnny Damon is clearly the best candidate for left field when we combine his offense and defense and his likely role as the Yankees leadoff hitter. Melky Cabrera's track record of lousy offense should remove him from the conversation as well. His defense just isn't good enough to justify an everyday role while contributing zero to the offense. Xavier Nady's defense in center is much worse than Gardner's and Swisher's so he is not a candidate to play center field. Brett Gardner's offensive potential and superior defense makes him clearly the best possible center fielder for the Yankees. This creates a battle for right field between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady.

The Battle for Right Field

To this point most have assumed that the Yankees' most like Spring Training battle would be between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner for center field. I think it isn't a contest. By the numbers, Gardner is the far superior option. This makes the biggest battle of the spring between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Swisher seems clearly the better defensive option but Nady is not a detriment in right field. The real question is what is the true offensive level of both players. If we believe that Nady's gains in 2008 are for real then Nady gains an edge on Swisher. However, if both revert to their career levels of performance Swisher becomes a slightly better option especially when defense is considered.

Both Swisher and Nady have demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions. Nady is competent at first base, and both corner outfield positions and Swisher adds center field to his versatility. Nady has an .863 OPS against lefties during the last three seasons and an .810 OPS versus right-handers. Swisher also is better against left-handers with a .864 OPS and a .799 OPS against right-handers. So a platoon doesn't make much sense.
Feelings from Deep Down in the Guts

I believe that Xavier Nady's 2008 gains are for real. I get the impression that the Yankees also believe that those gains are real. I also believe that Nick Swisher will bounce back to at least his career levels and very possibly higher. I have followed the Yankees for years and unfortunately they tend to sacrifice defense for offense, especially when it means playing a veteran over an untested younger player. But I think manager Joe Girardi will break from this trend in 2009. So what does this mean? Here is what my gut and my examination of the context is telling me:

1. Unless Melky Cabrera is absolutely amazing in Spring Training he will not be on the major league team to start the season.
   
2. Xavier Nady will be the regular right fielder.
3. Brett Gardner will start in center field unless he is attrocious in Spring Training.
4. Nick Swisher will utilize his versatility to find 350-400 at-bats rotating between left field, center field, right field, first base, and designated hitter.
   
5. If Hideki Matsui is not the designated hitter, he will not be in the lineup.

Other Possibilities

The rumors of Manny Ramirez also coming to the Bronx are still out there but I think this is an unlikely development. Much more likely is that the Yankees complete their much rumored trade for Mike Cameron. Cameron would start in center field and throw everything off again.

The other very strong possibility is that the Yankees do what they usually do and begin the season with the veteran Nick Swisher in center field. In this scenario Brett Gardner would be the reserve outfielder to start the season. Even if this is the case I believe that (to use a battered cliche) the cream will rise to the top and Gardner will be the regular center fielder by the all-star break. Gardner is simply too talented too remain on the bench in favor of inferior defensive (and potentially offensive) options based on nothing but veteran status.

Conclusion

Brett Gardner is one of my favorite sleepers for the 2009 season. I will be posting my complete evaluation of his skills in the series of sleeper articles that should appear in the next few weeks.