Rookies and Young Players to Watch: St. Louis Cardinals

The players in these reports are not necessarily rookie of the year candidates or even potential fantasy stars. The players I'm going thru in these team reports willbe younger players that should have a role in 2006 and make potentially great end game or late round picks. Obviously when we're discussing young players there is always the potential for much more and thats why these reports (which should be daily, hopefully) will focus on the young role players rather than older ones who are more likely to be hurt or decline rapidly. You should clearly understand that this particular element of strategy does not suggest you should take one of these players rather than someone like Shawn Green but rather that one of these players can boost the potential of your end-game better than say an Al Leiter or Steve Finley. I guarantee you that almost every magazine you pick up will have Steve "No Starting Position" Finley ahead of John Rodriguez. The difference is John Rodriguez is rising as Steve Finley is falling. Packing as much potential as possible into your end-game can be the difference between 9th and 4th or even 1st and 2nd.

Anthony Reyes: Anthony Reyes was drafted the same year as Mark Prior and could very well be the better pitcher. While Prior was a superstar in college, Reyes suffered injury problems which hurt his draft position and delayed his progression through the minors. Now Prior is looking injury prone aand Reyes is ready to emerge as a star in the major leagues. The addittion of Sidney Ponson to the Cardinals' roster may seem to throw a wrench into Reyes' plans but i don't think it will. Reyes even at this point is a far superior pitcher to Ponson. Ponson will serve most likely as a long reliever and spot starter. I see Reyes as a potential Clemens like pitcher. The only thing in his way is a history of injuries he must put behind him.

John Rodriguez: John Rodrigues tore up the Puerto Rican Winter league in limited at-bats. He hit .346 with seven hmers and 28 rbi. Rodriguez is now 28 years old. he spent nine years in the Yankee system where he showed he could hit although he didn't perform any spectacular feats. He signed with the Cardinals as a six-year minor league free-agent and something changed when he hit AAA Memphis. He suddenly showed amazing power. He hit .342/.419/.808 in 120 at-bats. That performance earned him a promotion to the majors when Reggie Sanders got hurt. In 149 sometimes sporadic at-bats Rodriguez didn't embarass himself hitting .295/.382/.436 mostly against right-handed pitching.

Hector Luna: In my opinion Hector Luna would make an excellent $1 MI in NL only leagues in 2006. Luna was a 2003 Rule V Pick from the Cleveland Indians. He has potential that hasn't really been seen in the majors but would be especially nice out of a late round second baseman. Luna hasn't won any jobs yet so you'll have to watch how things develop but even if Luna doesn't win the starting job I can pretty much guarantee he'll see significant time (200-250 at-bats in the least) as a utility player. The Cardinals have brought in several mediocrities to compete for the second base job but none are obvious starters. With full time at-bats I believe Luna could hit .270-.280 with 8-10 homers and 10-15 steals. Its not A-Rod but it has meat on the bones.

Adam Wainwright: Wainwright is one of the Cardinals few high level prospects. Two years ago Wainwright was considered equal if not superior to Anthony Reyes. Wainwright missed most of the 2004 season due to elbow problems. He avoided surgery and appears mostly recovered. The time out cost him some control which elevated his hit rate and his walk rate. Wainwright had been looking better and better every year before the injury. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in their rotation but Walt Jocketty is smart enough to use his young potentially great pitchers whereever possible. Players like Ponson and Marquis won't be the way for long. The Cardinals are definitely deep enough in their rotation to be able to trade a few starters to improve their lineup and there are hitters available for just that price. If Wainwright starts in the bullpen grab him for a dollar or two and be confident you got a steal.

Player Profile: Mark Prior

Fantasy Impact:
When healthy Mark Prior is a good pitcher. He hasn't been nearly as good as we all expected but that potential is still there. However, before Prior can reach that potential he has to learn to stay on the field. I'm not sure if its Prior's motion, Dusty Baker's abuse or just bad luck which is keeping Prior off the field but it certainly seems that the Cubs are almost done waiting for him to turn into the ace they thought they had cheaply. In a draft I wouldn't pay anything close to full price for Prior and unfortunately (if you want him) thats what you'll have to pay as Prior is stillvery very popular with the fantasy crowds.

Expect and Pay for no better than:

150 IP / 3.50 era/ 1.20 whip/ 12-12 record (remember the Cubs stink)

Background:
Prior grew up in San Diego and was a fan of the Giants and Padres. When he started pitchers he modeled himself after Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. He bcame a major star while still with the University of Southern California. He pitched for Team USA. He was drafted #2 overall by the Cubs after the twins elected to pick Joe Mauer. He recieved $10.5 million to sign with the Cubs. Prior is a disciple of Tom House and constantly works to refine his mechanics.

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2002	CHC	19	19	6	6	0	1	0	116.2	98	45	43	14	38	147	3.32	1.17	.226
2003	CHC	30	30	18	6	0	3	1	211.1	183	67	57	15	50	245	2.43	1.10	.231
2004	CHC	21	21	6	4	0	0	0	118.2	112	53	53	14	48	139	4.02	1.35	.251
2005	CHC	27	27	11	7	0	1	0	166.2	143	73	68	25	59	188	3.67	1.21	.227
Career		97	97	41	23	0	5	1	613.1	536	238	221	68	195	719	3.24	1.19	.233

Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball's Lunatic Fringe

Most of the books you'll read about on this site will be more of the annual and reference guide types. Fantasyland is a book I'm really looking forward to buying. Rather than write about how good I think it is before actually reading it, I'm going to show you some clips of the reviews I've found and the places you'll find them.

Netshrine.com:
As a sportswriter, Sam Walker has the access that most fantasy team owners can only dream about – in that he has a direct connection to players, scouts, coaches and general managers. As such, in the book, there are many remarkable stories involving Walker’s roto-related exchanges with current major league baseball participants such as Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Guillen, David Oritz, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Miguel Batista, Mark Shapiro, Jim Beattie, Theo Epstein, Dave Littlefield, Billy Beane, Kenny Williams, Lou Piniella, Alan Trammel, and Mike Scioscia – just to name a few (from a list of numerous personalities).

Imagine talking then Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella into using B.J. Upton as a Designated Hitter because he’s on your rotisserie team and you need the At Bats. Walker did it. Imagine e-mailing then Orioles G.M. Jim Beattie to see if Luis Matos was about to lose his full-time job – and getting a fast and honest answer. Walker did that as well. Imagine asking Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz if he would trade himself in exchange for Texas Rangers speedster Alfonso Soriano (because you need steals in the standings) and then having a debate with him over it. Again, Walker did this. Fantasyland is full of entertaining and sometimes startling dealings such as these mentioned here.

Publisher's Weekly:
When Walker, a senior writer for the Wall Street Journal, enters his first fantasy baseball tournament, he aims high: Tout Wars, a competition for guys who make a career out of analyzing stats to find the best Major League hitters and pitchers. He figures that because he can get to the ballparks in his journalistic capacity and talk to the players and coaches, he'll be in a better position to judge the intangibles and pull one over the pure numbers crunchers. But even with the help of a young research assistant and a NASA scientist, things quickly head south. This hilarious diary of the 2004 season includes several encounters with the players Walker has picked; from Jacque Jones's struggle to refute predictions of mediocrity to David Ortiz's razzing Walker for trading him away. Along the way there are mini-profiles of the Tout Wars competition, as well as explorations of the origins of fantasy baseball (predating even the famed Rotisserie League) and the shaky relationship between dedicated statistical analysts and Major League executives. Readers might even pick up a few tips on how to draft their teams this spring, but the real fun is in watching Walker's well-laid plans unravel.

Player Profile: Milton Bradley

Fantasy Impact:
Milton Bradley should be the regular right-fielder for the Oakland Athletics this year. He has good not great speed and likes to steal bases even though he isn't very good at it. He has good not quite great plate discipline. He may tend to hit on the low side in batting average but it shouldn't be so low that his counting stats don't make up for it. He has good power that he hasn't fully displayed yet.
Injuries have been a problem but nothing that should be a long term problem. We have yet to see the very best of Milton Bradley. If Bradley can stay on the field by avoiding injuries and suspensions he could put up a career year in Oakland. The Oakland lineup should provide plenty of baserunners to drive in and nice protection in the lineup.

2006 UPSIDE: .290avg / 25 homeruns / 5 stolen bases
Background:
Milton Bradley has battled issues with his attitude since he entered pro-ball in the Expos system. But I think its important to understand exactly what issues Bradley has as opposed to what attitudes he is percieved to have.

The robber had just burst into a Safeway supermarket, stuck his gun against Charlina Rector's head and snapped, "B----, gimme the money." Rector, the cashier, folded her arms and stared right back at him. "My momma didn't raise no b----," she said. "Get your own damn money." The man fumbled with the register, took the cash and scrammed.

Charlina Rector is Milton Bradley's mother and her attitude is exactly the attitude her son has which is take no shit from anyone. Read this article about Milton Bradley while he was with the Indians. Believe it or not Milton Bradley has mellowed. He really only has one huge problem remaining: if you poke him, he pokes back. Fans threw bottles at Milton Bradley and he threw them back. Jeff Kent called him for not being on the field and for his style of play. he responded by throwing a bottle (a plastic harmless bottle) back at the feet of fans. He responded to Jeff Kent by announcing things about Jeff Kent that coming from just about any other player would surprise no one. The Media in LA was determined to tear down the DePodesta Dodgers and Bradley was the center piece. If Bradley is left alone he'll prove himself a great baseball player and not too bad a guy.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	MON	42	154	20	34	8	1	2	15	14	32	2	1	.221	.288	.325	.613
2001	MON	67	220	19	49	16	3	1	19	19	62	7	4	.223	.288	.336	.624
2001	CLE	10	18	3	4	1	0	0	0	2	3	1	1	.222	.300	.278	.578
2002	CLE	98	325	48	81	18	3	9	38	32	58	6	3	.249	.317	.406	.723
2003	CLE	101	377	61	121	34	2	10	56	64	73	17	7	.321	.421	.501	.923
2004	LA	141	516	72	138	24	0	19	67	71	123	15	11	.267	.362	.424	.786
2005	LAD	75	283	49	82	14	1	13	38	25	47	6	1	.290	.350	.484	.835
Career		534	1893	272	509	115	10	54	233	227	398	54	28	.269	.350	.426	.776

Player Profile: Gerald Laird

Fantasy Impact:
Gerald Laird has been in a lot of the Texas Ranger trade rumors this year for a good reason. The reason? He has the potential to be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. He has a decent idea about how to get on base and has decent power as well. Laird is not Mike Piazza but with the poor hitting at the catching position these days Laird can be very valuable. Last season for Oklahoma Laird had a .310/.380/.562 line. I wouldn't expect an average that high but he can definitely hit. Right now Laird is behind Rod Barajas but with a good spring he could easily snatch the job away. The Rangers want him to win the job and since the Rangers have managed to improve their starting rotation and bullpen without trading him I expect that Laird will indeed win the job.

Background:
Laird has battled injuries (and other players) while progressing towards the majors. He may start this year backing up Rod Barajas who secured himself in the role after Laird was hurt. Buck Showalter us a big fan which can only speed him into the job. In 2004 Showalter thought he might be a potential rookie of the year.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	TEX	19	44	9	12	2	1	1	4	5	11	0	0	.273	.360	.432	.792
2004	TEX	49	147	20	33	6	0	1	16	12	35	0	1	.224	.287	.286	.572
2005	TEX	13	40	7	9	2	0	1	4	2	7	0	0	.225	.262	.350	.612
Career		81	231	36	54	10	1	3	24	19	53	0	1	.234	.297	.325	.622

Player profile: Orlando Hudson - Overwhelming Coolness

Fantasy Impact:
Orlando Hudson is a great baseball player. Orlando Hudson is not a great fantasy pick but he could be a useful one especially now that he is an Arizona Diamondback. Hudson is essentially a .270 hitter with a bit of pop in his bat. He has decent speed but isn't very good at stealing bases. Hudson's right-handed power should be maximized by Arizona's Chase Field Stadium (whatever its called these days). I think that power maxes out at 15 or so homers but I said useful not amazing. A stat line of .275/330/.440 with 10-15 home runs looks very possible even if it is a little optimistic.

Background:
Almost everyone likes Orlando Hudson. You can tell the fans in Toronto like him by how many of them would rather have Hudson than Troy Glaus. The Blue jays got a fantastic deal when they traded Hudson's defense for the bat of Glaus and the chance to get Aaron Hill into their everyday lineup. Hudson is probably the best defensive secondbaseman in baseball right now. He is very very good. The Diamondback pitchers who use their defense should reap benefits The Diamondbacks should have a new fan favorite very soon.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	TOR	54	192	20	53	10	5	4	23	11	27	0	1	.276	.319	.443	.762
2003	TOR	142	474	54	127	21	6	9	57	39	87	5	4	.268	.328	.395	.723
2004	TOR	135	489	73	132	32	7	12	58	51	98	7	3	.270	.341	.438	.779
2005	TOR	131	461	62	125	25	5	10	63	30	65	7	1	.271	.315	.412	.728
Career		462	1616	209	437	88	23	35	201	131	277	19	9	.270	.328	.418	.746

Player Profile: Rondell White

Fantasy Impact:
Rondell White has always had a solid bat. He doesn't take a ton of walks but he usually hits for a high enough average that his obp stays at decent levels. Its always been injuries that have held White back from both baseball and fantasy stardom. In 2005 White hit .313/.348/.489 in 374 at-bats. Comerica Park reduces significantly a players' doubles and homeruns. The Metrodome (Rondell's new home park) also reduces doubles but not as much as Commerica. The Metrodome also slightly boosts homeruns. Given the change in parks and a better chance of staying healthy via the DH role, Rodel White could have a big year. With the addittion of Luis Castillo and a bounce back to more typical numbers by Shannon Stewart alongside the continued improvement of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau White should have plenty of batters to drive in and to drive him home. A year in the .290/.345/.485 range wouldn't surprise me at all. Thirty homeruns wouldn't surprise me either. Because of Rondell Whites injury problems and mediocre totals the last few years he should be available cheaply and late in drafts. Bid that extra dollar or move him up a round or two, he'll be worth it.

Background:
When Rondell White came up with the Montreal Expos great things were expected of him. He was thought to be a future 30/30 player. Instead injuries have consistently kept him from reaching his once considerable potential. Because of injuries his speed is just about gone but he still has considerable power. White just signed a one year deal to act as the DH of the Minnesota Twins. If White makes plate appearance incentives he could make as much as $8.5 million over two years.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1993	MON	23	73	9	19	3	1	2	15	7	16	1	2	.260	.321	.411	.732
1994	MON	40	97	16	27	10	1	2	13	9	18	1	1	.278	.358	.464	.822
1995	MON	130	474	87	140	33	4	13	57	41	87	25	5	.295	.356	.464	.820
1996	MON	88	334	35	98	19	4	6	41	22	53	14	6	.293	.340	.428	.768
1997	MON	151	592	84	160	29	5	28	82	31	111	16	8	.270	.316	.478	.794
1998	MON	97	357	54	107	21	2	17	58	30	57	16	7	.300	.363	.513	.875
1999	MON	138	539	83	168	26	6	22	64	32	85	10	6	.312	.359	.505	.863
2000	MON	75	290	52	89	24	0	11	54	28	67	5	1	.307	.370	.503	.873
2000	CHC	19	67	7	22	2	0	2	7	5	12	0	2	.328	.392	.448	.840
2001	CHC	95	323	43	99	19	1	17	50	26	56	1	0	.307	.371	.529	.900
2002	NYY	126	455	59	109	21	0	14	62	25	86	1	2	.240	.288	.378	.666
2003	KC	22	75	13	26	6	1	4	21	6	8	0	0	.347	.400	.613	1.013
2003	SD	115	413	49	115	17	3	18	66	25	71	1	4	.278	.330	.465	.795
2004	DET	121	448	76	121	21	2	19	67	39	77	1	2	.270	.337	.453	.790
2005	DET	97	374	49	117	24	3	12	53	17	48	1	0	.313	.348	.489	.837
Career		1337	4911	716	1417	275	33	187	710	343	852	93	46	.289	.343	.472	.815

Player Profile: Bobby Hill 2B Padres

Fantasy Impact:

In my opinion Bobby Hill can still be a star for both MLB and fantasy leagues. He won't hit for an amazing average although his average shouldn't hurt you. He has a very good idea about how to get on base. If the Padres put Hill in the leadoff or second spot in the order he'll start stealing bases again and that is the strength of Bobby Hill. Playing a whole season at leadoff you might get fifty steals from Hill. Spend a dollar on Hill or use your last pick of the draft on him. Not many will be advocating such a move I'm sure but its finally time for Hill to get his shot don't miss out.

Background:
Bobby Hill has had a raw deal the last few years. After being a star in high school and being drafted in the fifth round by the then California Angels. He chose not to sign and went to the University of Miami where he became a huge college star. He was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the second round but didn’t sign (Scott Boras…’nuff said). He played with the Independent Newark Bears where he was incredible. He hit .326 and stole 81 bases. The Cubs drafted him in the second round in 2000 and it was pretty unanimous that Hill wouldn’t need long in the minors. Then he ran into Don Baylor who preferred Delino Deshields and questioned Hill’s attitude. Hill never got another real shot. He was traded to the Pirates and despite spending most of four years in the majors has accumulated only 523 career at-bats. All the while with the Pirates Hill, as an occasional starter and pinch hitter, had a .343obp and sat on the bench behind not one but two infielders (Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson) who are just barely capable of .300obp. Now Hill is finally free of the Pirates thanks to the Padres who will finally give Hill a chance to compete for a job. The bad news is he must compete with top prospect Josh Barfield. Hill has been mediocre with the glove thus far but I expect that with regular playing time that would improve.

Statistics:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	CHC	59	190	26	48	7	2	4	20	17	42	6	1	.253	.327	.374	.701
2003	CHC	5	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.250	.400	.250	.650
2003	PIT	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.333	.500	.333	.833
2004	PIT	126	233	28	62	7	2	2	27	20	39	0	3	.266	.353	.339	.692
2005	PIT	58	93	12	25	6	0	0	11	9	17	0	0	.269	.343	.333	.676
Career		249	523	67	137	20	4	6	58	48	100	6	4	.262	.343	.350	.693

Player Profile: Rocco Baldelli

Fantasy Impact:
Assuming Rocco Baldelli is back to 100% he should be a solid player for 2006. It is tough to assume he's healthy after the bad luck Baldelli experienced last year. I'm basing my optimism on the large contract the D'Rays gave him after missing the entire 2005 season with a torn ACL and then Tommy John Surgery in July. What worries me most is the possible loss of speed after his injuries. Back to normal I'd feel comfortable predicting a .280/20/80/25 season. He doesn't draw many walks but was making progress on controlling strikeouts before getting hurt. If he can play he'll be the D'Ray centerfielder.

Background:
As Baldelli flashed thru the minors he was often compared to Yankee Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio. He probably should have been the 2003 American League Rookie of the Year. He faced stiff competition from Hideki Matsui and Angel Berroa. Many belive that players coming from the Japanese leagues shouldn't be elidgible for the ROY award. Berroa had a good season but turned out to be a one hit wonder. Despite his injuries the Devil Rays signed Baldelli to a six year $32 million contract.


Statistics:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	TB	156	637	89	184	32	8	11	78	30	128	27	10	.289	.326	.416	.742
2004	TB	136	518	79	145	27	3	16	74	30	88	17	4	.280	.326	.436	.762
Career		292	1155	168	329	59	11	27	152	60	216	44	14	.285	.326	.425	.751

Finding Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

A Fantasy Baseball Sleeper means something different to every owner out there. Most people define a sleeper as a player who is underrated and unknown. If you are in a 13 Team National League Only League you will have a much different view of who is and isn't a sleeper than the person in a 10 Team Mixed League. Victor Diaz may be undraftable in your league but invaluable in mine. Read More Below...

The big question isn't really who is a sleeper (it isn't ???) but rather how to find a sleeper. The easy answer is to know more than your opponents. There is no doubt that knowledge is power in fantasy baseball. But in tougher leagues you may find yourself evenly matched with your opponents. You all know that Mike Lowell has declined the last couple of years and majorly in 2005. You will all also know that Fenway Park tends to add life to a flyball hitting slugger's numbers. You may also know that Lowell's decline coinsided with the testing for steroids. The difference in a league where you have many knowledgeable owners is the ability to put your knowledge into context. Is Mike Lowell automatically the starter? Why? Because he has a big contract? What does that mean for Kevin Youkilis? Who starts at first? Even if Lowell starts how much of a chance will he get? How will a potential Manny trade impact Lowell? or Youkilis? These are the type of questions you have to ask yourself constantly.

The purpose of this site will be to try and provide the context for your knowledge. I'll point you to good sources of that context. I'll give you profiles of players. I'll keep you up to date on player news. I'll give you a regular dose of sleepers some for the ten team yahoo league and some for the thirteen team ultra only league. Feel free to send me your rosters and I'll help you with your keeper lists. E-mail me anytime at bigjon_2002@hotmail.com or just comment on this site.

Coming right up? Some infield sleepers you may find interesting.

Reds Trade Sean Casey to the Pirates

Cross Brad Eldred off your list for 2006. The Pirates have acquired Sean Casey for Dave Williams a left handed starter who after years of injuries has started to establish himself. The Pirates want Eldred to get more seasoning in the minors. Despite hitting forty homeruns in the minors and majors last year he had over 150 strikeouts. The Pirates have money to spend and they've chosen to spend it on Casey rather than the gigantic hole at third (and short and second in my opinion).

Check out this story about the trade:

The Pittsburgh native Casey, 31, did not want to discuss the details of the deal until after returning to Pittsburgh to complete his physical with the club. But he did express initial disappointment upon hearing his name included in trade rumors this winter.

"I want to retire with the Cincinnati Reds. I don't want to go anywhere," Casey said. " I love Cincinnati, the fans, the team and the charitable work that I do. If I have to go, and I hope I don't, Pittsburgh is the best place because that is where I was born and raised."

By adding Casey, the Pirates address their need for a left-handed run producer at first base to bat behind All-Star Jason Bay. A three-time National League All-Star, Casey has a .305 career batting average with 118 home runs and 605 RBIs in nine big-league seasons, eight of which he spent in Cincinnati.

Casey batted .324 with 24 home runs and 99 RBIs in 2004 but saw his power numbers fall off significantly last season after he sustained a left shoulder injury in May while diving for a foul ball. Casey was batting .312 with nine home runs and 58 RBIs when he suffered a season-ending concussion at PNC Park on Sept. 16 following a collision at first base with Pirates catcher Humberto Cota.

Also check this story on the impact on Brad Eldred:

The addition of Casey, even if he is not signed beyond 2006, allows the Pirates to give powerful first base prospect Brad Eldred another year to improve his pitch selection, contact and defense at Triple-A. Eldred combined to club 40 home runs in the Minor Leagues and big leagues last season, but he also struck out 159 times in 469 at-bats.

If you can stash Eldred away do it. He'll be back in 2007 and he has some serious power. I'll have more on the fantasy impact of this and the other Hot Stove Transactions soon.