Rookies and Young Players to Watch: St. Louis Cardinals

The players in these reports are not necessarily rookie of the year candidates or even potential fantasy stars. The players I'm going thru in these team reports willbe younger players that should have a role in 2006 and make potentially great end game or late round picks. Obviously when we're discussing young players there is always the potential for much more and thats why these reports (which should be daily, hopefully) will focus on the young role players rather than older ones who are more likely to be hurt or decline rapidly. You should clearly understand that this particular element of strategy does not suggest you should take one of these players rather than someone like Shawn Green but rather that one of these players can boost the potential of your end-game better than say an Al Leiter or Steve Finley. I guarantee you that almost every magazine you pick up will have Steve "No Starting Position" Finley ahead of John Rodriguez. The difference is John Rodriguez is rising as Steve Finley is falling. Packing as much potential as possible into your end-game can be the difference between 9th and 4th or even 1st and 2nd.

Anthony Reyes: Anthony Reyes was drafted the same year as Mark Prior and could very well be the better pitcher. While Prior was a superstar in college, Reyes suffered injury problems which hurt his draft position and delayed his progression through the minors. Now Prior is looking injury prone aand Reyes is ready to emerge as a star in the major leagues. The addittion of Sidney Ponson to the Cardinals' roster may seem to throw a wrench into Reyes' plans but i don't think it will. Reyes even at this point is a far superior pitcher to Ponson. Ponson will serve most likely as a long reliever and spot starter. I see Reyes as a potential Clemens like pitcher. The only thing in his way is a history of injuries he must put behind him.

John Rodriguez: John Rodrigues tore up the Puerto Rican Winter league in limited at-bats. He hit .346 with seven hmers and 28 rbi. Rodriguez is now 28 years old. he spent nine years in the Yankee system where he showed he could hit although he didn't perform any spectacular feats. He signed with the Cardinals as a six-year minor league free-agent and something changed when he hit AAA Memphis. He suddenly showed amazing power. He hit .342/.419/.808 in 120 at-bats. That performance earned him a promotion to the majors when Reggie Sanders got hurt. In 149 sometimes sporadic at-bats Rodriguez didn't embarass himself hitting .295/.382/.436 mostly against right-handed pitching.

Hector Luna: In my opinion Hector Luna would make an excellent $1 MI in NL only leagues in 2006. Luna was a 2003 Rule V Pick from the Cleveland Indians. He has potential that hasn't really been seen in the majors but would be especially nice out of a late round second baseman. Luna hasn't won any jobs yet so you'll have to watch how things develop but even if Luna doesn't win the starting job I can pretty much guarantee he'll see significant time (200-250 at-bats in the least) as a utility player. The Cardinals have brought in several mediocrities to compete for the second base job but none are obvious starters. With full time at-bats I believe Luna could hit .270-.280 with 8-10 homers and 10-15 steals. Its not A-Rod but it has meat on the bones.

Adam Wainwright: Wainwright is one of the Cardinals few high level prospects. Two years ago Wainwright was considered equal if not superior to Anthony Reyes. Wainwright missed most of the 2004 season due to elbow problems. He avoided surgery and appears mostly recovered. The time out cost him some control which elevated his hit rate and his walk rate. Wainwright had been looking better and better every year before the injury. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in their rotation but Walt Jocketty is smart enough to use his young potentially great pitchers whereever possible. Players like Ponson and Marquis won't be the way for long. The Cardinals are definitely deep enough in their rotation to be able to trade a few starters to improve their lineup and there are hitters available for just that price. If Wainwright starts in the bullpen grab him for a dollar or two and be confident you got a steal.

Player Profile: Mark Prior

Fantasy Impact:
When healthy Mark Prior is a good pitcher. He hasn't been nearly as good as we all expected but that potential is still there. However, before Prior can reach that potential he has to learn to stay on the field. I'm not sure if its Prior's motion, Dusty Baker's abuse or just bad luck which is keeping Prior off the field but it certainly seems that the Cubs are almost done waiting for him to turn into the ace they thought they had cheaply. In a draft I wouldn't pay anything close to full price for Prior and unfortunately (if you want him) thats what you'll have to pay as Prior is stillvery very popular with the fantasy crowds.

Expect and Pay for no better than:

150 IP / 3.50 era/ 1.20 whip/ 12-12 record (remember the Cubs stink)

Background:
Prior grew up in San Diego and was a fan of the Giants and Padres. When he started pitchers he modeled himself after Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. He bcame a major star while still with the University of Southern California. He pitched for Team USA. He was drafted #2 overall by the Cubs after the twins elected to pick Joe Mauer. He recieved $10.5 million to sign with the Cubs. Prior is a disciple of Tom House and constantly works to refine his mechanics.

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2002	CHC	19	19	6	6	0	1	0	116.2	98	45	43	14	38	147	3.32	1.17	.226
2003	CHC	30	30	18	6	0	3	1	211.1	183	67	57	15	50	245	2.43	1.10	.231
2004	CHC	21	21	6	4	0	0	0	118.2	112	53	53	14	48	139	4.02	1.35	.251
2005	CHC	27	27	11	7	0	1	0	166.2	143	73	68	25	59	188	3.67	1.21	.227
Career		97	97	41	23	0	5	1	613.1	536	238	221	68	195	719	3.24	1.19	.233

Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball's Lunatic Fringe

Most of the books you'll read about on this site will be more of the annual and reference guide types. Fantasyland is a book I'm really looking forward to buying. Rather than write about how good I think it is before actually reading it, I'm going to show you some clips of the reviews I've found and the places you'll find them.

Netshrine.com:
As a sportswriter, Sam Walker has the access that most fantasy team owners can only dream about – in that he has a direct connection to players, scouts, coaches and general managers. As such, in the book, there are many remarkable stories involving Walker’s roto-related exchanges with current major league baseball participants such as Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Guillen, David Oritz, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Miguel Batista, Mark Shapiro, Jim Beattie, Theo Epstein, Dave Littlefield, Billy Beane, Kenny Williams, Lou Piniella, Alan Trammel, and Mike Scioscia – just to name a few (from a list of numerous personalities).

Imagine talking then Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella into using B.J. Upton as a Designated Hitter because he’s on your rotisserie team and you need the At Bats. Walker did it. Imagine e-mailing then Orioles G.M. Jim Beattie to see if Luis Matos was about to lose his full-time job – and getting a fast and honest answer. Walker did that as well. Imagine asking Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz if he would trade himself in exchange for Texas Rangers speedster Alfonso Soriano (because you need steals in the standings) and then having a debate with him over it. Again, Walker did this. Fantasyland is full of entertaining and sometimes startling dealings such as these mentioned here.

Publisher's Weekly:
When Walker, a senior writer for the Wall Street Journal, enters his first fantasy baseball tournament, he aims high: Tout Wars, a competition for guys who make a career out of analyzing stats to find the best Major League hitters and pitchers. He figures that because he can get to the ballparks in his journalistic capacity and talk to the players and coaches, he'll be in a better position to judge the intangibles and pull one over the pure numbers crunchers. But even with the help of a young research assistant and a NASA scientist, things quickly head south. This hilarious diary of the 2004 season includes several encounters with the players Walker has picked; from Jacque Jones's struggle to refute predictions of mediocrity to David Ortiz's razzing Walker for trading him away. Along the way there are mini-profiles of the Tout Wars competition, as well as explorations of the origins of fantasy baseball (predating even the famed Rotisserie League) and the shaky relationship between dedicated statistical analysts and Major League executives. Readers might even pick up a few tips on how to draft their teams this spring, but the real fun is in watching Walker's well-laid plans unravel.

Player Profile: Milton Bradley

Fantasy Impact:
Milton Bradley should be the regular right-fielder for the Oakland Athletics this year. He has good not great speed and likes to steal bases even though he isn't very good at it. He has good not quite great plate discipline. He may tend to hit on the low side in batting average but it shouldn't be so low that his counting stats don't make up for it. He has good power that he hasn't fully displayed yet.
Injuries have been a problem but nothing that should be a long term problem. We have yet to see the very best of Milton Bradley. If Bradley can stay on the field by avoiding injuries and suspensions he could put up a career year in Oakland. The Oakland lineup should provide plenty of baserunners to drive in and nice protection in the lineup.

2006 UPSIDE: .290avg / 25 homeruns / 5 stolen bases
Background:
Milton Bradley has battled issues with his attitude since he entered pro-ball in the Expos system. But I think its important to understand exactly what issues Bradley has as opposed to what attitudes he is percieved to have.

The robber had just burst into a Safeway supermarket, stuck his gun against Charlina Rector's head and snapped, "B----, gimme the money." Rector, the cashier, folded her arms and stared right back at him. "My momma didn't raise no b----," she said. "Get your own damn money." The man fumbled with the register, took the cash and scrammed.

Charlina Rector is Milton Bradley's mother and her attitude is exactly the attitude her son has which is take no shit from anyone. Read this article about Milton Bradley while he was with the Indians. Believe it or not Milton Bradley has mellowed. He really only has one huge problem remaining: if you poke him, he pokes back. Fans threw bottles at Milton Bradley and he threw them back. Jeff Kent called him for not being on the field and for his style of play. he responded by throwing a bottle (a plastic harmless bottle) back at the feet of fans. He responded to Jeff Kent by announcing things about Jeff Kent that coming from just about any other player would surprise no one. The Media in LA was determined to tear down the DePodesta Dodgers and Bradley was the center piece. If Bradley is left alone he'll prove himself a great baseball player and not too bad a guy.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	MON	42	154	20	34	8	1	2	15	14	32	2	1	.221	.288	.325	.613
2001	MON	67	220	19	49	16	3	1	19	19	62	7	4	.223	.288	.336	.624
2001	CLE	10	18	3	4	1	0	0	0	2	3	1	1	.222	.300	.278	.578
2002	CLE	98	325	48	81	18	3	9	38	32	58	6	3	.249	.317	.406	.723
2003	CLE	101	377	61	121	34	2	10	56	64	73	17	7	.321	.421	.501	.923
2004	LA	141	516	72	138	24	0	19	67	71	123	15	11	.267	.362	.424	.786
2005	LAD	75	283	49	82	14	1	13	38	25	47	6	1	.290	.350	.484	.835
Career		534	1893	272	509	115	10	54	233	227	398	54	28	.269	.350	.426	.776

Player Profile: Gerald Laird

Fantasy Impact:
Gerald Laird has been in a lot of the Texas Ranger trade rumors this year for a good reason. The reason? He has the potential to be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. He has a decent idea about how to get on base and has decent power as well. Laird is not Mike Piazza but with the poor hitting at the catching position these days Laird can be very valuable. Last season for Oklahoma Laird had a .310/.380/.562 line. I wouldn't expect an average that high but he can definitely hit. Right now Laird is behind Rod Barajas but with a good spring he could easily snatch the job away. The Rangers want him to win the job and since the Rangers have managed to improve their starting rotation and bullpen without trading him I expect that Laird will indeed win the job.

Background:
Laird has battled injuries (and other players) while progressing towards the majors. He may start this year backing up Rod Barajas who secured himself in the role after Laird was hurt. Buck Showalter us a big fan which can only speed him into the job. In 2004 Showalter thought he might be a potential rookie of the year.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	TEX	19	44	9	12	2	1	1	4	5	11	0	0	.273	.360	.432	.792
2004	TEX	49	147	20	33	6	0	1	16	12	35	0	1	.224	.287	.286	.572
2005	TEX	13	40	7	9	2	0	1	4	2	7	0	0	.225	.262	.350	.612
Career		81	231	36	54	10	1	3	24	19	53	0	1	.234	.297	.325	.622

Player profile: Orlando Hudson - Overwhelming Coolness

Fantasy Impact:
Orlando Hudson is a great baseball player. Orlando Hudson is not a great fantasy pick but he could be a useful one especially now that he is an Arizona Diamondback. Hudson is essentially a .270 hitter with a bit of pop in his bat. He has decent speed but isn't very good at stealing bases. Hudson's right-handed power should be maximized by Arizona's Chase Field Stadium (whatever its called these days). I think that power maxes out at 15 or so homers but I said useful not amazing. A stat line of .275/330/.440 with 10-15 home runs looks very possible even if it is a little optimistic.

Background:
Almost everyone likes Orlando Hudson. You can tell the fans in Toronto like him by how many of them would rather have Hudson than Troy Glaus. The Blue jays got a fantastic deal when they traded Hudson's defense for the bat of Glaus and the chance to get Aaron Hill into their everyday lineup. Hudson is probably the best defensive secondbaseman in baseball right now. He is very very good. The Diamondback pitchers who use their defense should reap benefits The Diamondbacks should have a new fan favorite very soon.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	TOR	54	192	20	53	10	5	4	23	11	27	0	1	.276	.319	.443	.762
2003	TOR	142	474	54	127	21	6	9	57	39	87	5	4	.268	.328	.395	.723
2004	TOR	135	489	73	132	32	7	12	58	51	98	7	3	.270	.341	.438	.779
2005	TOR	131	461	62	125	25	5	10	63	30	65	7	1	.271	.315	.412	.728
Career		462	1616	209	437	88	23	35	201	131	277	19	9	.270	.328	.418	.746

Player Profile: Rondell White

Fantasy Impact:
Rondell White has always had a solid bat. He doesn't take a ton of walks but he usually hits for a high enough average that his obp stays at decent levels. Its always been injuries that have held White back from both baseball and fantasy stardom. In 2005 White hit .313/.348/.489 in 374 at-bats. Comerica Park reduces significantly a players' doubles and homeruns. The Metrodome (Rondell's new home park) also reduces doubles but not as much as Commerica. The Metrodome also slightly boosts homeruns. Given the change in parks and a better chance of staying healthy via the DH role, Rodel White could have a big year. With the addittion of Luis Castillo and a bounce back to more typical numbers by Shannon Stewart alongside the continued improvement of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau White should have plenty of batters to drive in and to drive him home. A year in the .290/.345/.485 range wouldn't surprise me at all. Thirty homeruns wouldn't surprise me either. Because of Rondell Whites injury problems and mediocre totals the last few years he should be available cheaply and late in drafts. Bid that extra dollar or move him up a round or two, he'll be worth it.

Background:
When Rondell White came up with the Montreal Expos great things were expected of him. He was thought to be a future 30/30 player. Instead injuries have consistently kept him from reaching his once considerable potential. Because of injuries his speed is just about gone but he still has considerable power. White just signed a one year deal to act as the DH of the Minnesota Twins. If White makes plate appearance incentives he could make as much as $8.5 million over two years.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1993	MON	23	73	9	19	3	1	2	15	7	16	1	2	.260	.321	.411	.732
1994	MON	40	97	16	27	10	1	2	13	9	18	1	1	.278	.358	.464	.822
1995	MON	130	474	87	140	33	4	13	57	41	87	25	5	.295	.356	.464	.820
1996	MON	88	334	35	98	19	4	6	41	22	53	14	6	.293	.340	.428	.768
1997	MON	151	592	84	160	29	5	28	82	31	111	16	8	.270	.316	.478	.794
1998	MON	97	357	54	107	21	2	17	58	30	57	16	7	.300	.363	.513	.875
1999	MON	138	539	83	168	26	6	22	64	32	85	10	6	.312	.359	.505	.863
2000	MON	75	290	52	89	24	0	11	54	28	67	5	1	.307	.370	.503	.873
2000	CHC	19	67	7	22	2	0	2	7	5	12	0	2	.328	.392	.448	.840
2001	CHC	95	323	43	99	19	1	17	50	26	56	1	0	.307	.371	.529	.900
2002	NYY	126	455	59	109	21	0	14	62	25	86	1	2	.240	.288	.378	.666
2003	KC	22	75	13	26	6	1	4	21	6	8	0	0	.347	.400	.613	1.013
2003	SD	115	413	49	115	17	3	18	66	25	71	1	4	.278	.330	.465	.795
2004	DET	121	448	76	121	21	2	19	67	39	77	1	2	.270	.337	.453	.790
2005	DET	97	374	49	117	24	3	12	53	17	48	1	0	.313	.348	.489	.837
Career		1337	4911	716	1417	275	33	187	710	343	852	93	46	.289	.343	.472	.815