Burning Up the Bases written for Sportsblurb.com

Burning Up the Bases

By Jon Williams

08/07/06

Every fantasy baseball owner has a need for speed. Baseball’s base stealers have always been a precious commodity, and they have grown even more precious with the proliferation of the so-called Moneyball mindset. I do think we’re about to see a return to a more exciting brand of baseball. The vast majority of baseball teams – especially the bad ones – seem to annually attempt to mimic the characteristics of the best teams. This year, one of the better teams is without a doubt the New York Mets. And the Mets, as you may know or can guess by my clever lead in, use the stolen base as a key part of their offense.

What you as a fantasy owner must do is spot the stolen base talent being underutilized by teams that might use a similar style of offense in 2007. This week, I’m going to give you the key players on the three teams I can see giving the stolen base a bigger part in their game plans next year. Am I a great guy or what?

A little less running into walls and a little more running on the basepaths would do wonders for Aaron Rowand's fantasy owners...

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Aaron Rowand

2) Michael Bourne

3) Shane Victorino

He has not shown it this season, but Aaron Rowand can steal bases. He is not a blazing fast, Carl Crawford-type, but he has displayed the ability to take bases at a good percentage. The Phillies are almost guaranteed to have a new manager in 2007, and whoever is running the show next year would be wise to use some of the speed he will have on his roster, as well as utilize the base-stealing ability of almost everyone on the projected 2007 Major League roster. If that turns out to indeed be the case, Rowand could easily be a 20/20 guy in 2007.

Michael Bourn is the next home grown Philadelphia star. At the University of Houston, Bourn honed his ability to hit for average, get on base, and steal bases. As the 2003 fourth round pick of the Phillies little has changed. With Bobby Abreu traded to the Yankees, and Pat Burrell rumored to be following him in the off-season, the opportunity will be there for Bourn to claim a spot in the outfield in 2007. Bourn has a batting line of .288/.388/.396 in the minors and would be a very dynamic #2 hitter behind star shortstop Jimmy Rollins and might even push Rollins to the #2 spot. If Bourn makes the team and does what he has shown the ability to do, the Phillies will be a very exciting team to watch.

He may not be as flashy as Michael Bourn, but Shane Victorino has probably already earned a spot on the 2007 major league roster of the Phillies. His .310/.377/.534 showing at Triple-A Scranton has already earned him a call-up to fill the spot vacated by Bobby Abreu. He’s off to a respectable .267/.330/.424 start in 191 Major League at-bats this season. He has only stolen two bases without being caught but could easily steal 20 bases if given the opportunity.

Kansas City Royals

1) Alex Gordon

2) Joey Gathright

3) Esteban German

The Kansas City Royals have a much brighter future than most believe. Their minor league system may not be deep at the moment but they have a few guys that project as the heart of the order for the next decade. Next year, the fantasy baseball magazines will tell you all you need to know about Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, and Justin Huber. But the star of the Kansas City system by far will be third baseman Alex Gordon. The former Nebraska star has been compared to Chipper Jones with his beautiful swing and his projecting to hit for both power and average. Gordon already shows solid plate discipline, and many believe he should be in the Majors already. As of this writing, he is at Double-A Wichita, batting .316/.416/.559 with 20 home runs in just 383 at-bats. I know what you’re wondering, though – can he steal bases? He presently has 20 stolen bases and has been caught just three times. Gordon is the infield version of Carlos Beltran – yes, he is really that good.

Joey Gathright is not a great hitter; he can, however, use his speed and slap-hitting ability to hit for a respectable average, as he has shown he can do in the minors. He’s hit .316 in over 1,200 minor league at-bats with a .390 on-base percentage. Most importantly, the man is blazing fast. He has stolen 165 bases and been caught stealing 50 times in his Minor League career. That’s just over 40 stolen bases for every season spent in the minors, and he has made spent some time in the Majors just wasting away on the bench or he might have stolen even more.

I really hope that the Royals replace manager Bob Boone, as he has made one of the best performers on his team almost irrelevant. This season, 26-year-old Esteban German has batted .321/.430/.378, but cannot seem to get at-bats ahead of 36-year-old Mark Grudzielanek (.286/.325/.394 in 388 at-bats). A team like the Royals needs to give at-bats to the players that can play a part in the future of the team, rather than ancient mediocrities that will be here on the roster for one season at the most. German has the speed and the know-how to steal 30 to 40 bases. All he needs is an opportunity.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Chris Duffy

2) Nate McLouth

3) Jason Bay

Chris Duffy was supposed to be the starting center fielder for the Pirates in 2006. He lost the opportunity by hitting just .230/.288/.344 in 61 spring training at-bats. Duffy did not respond well to the May demotion and refused the assignment for almost a month. He did finally report and got to work on the things lacking in his game. At Triple-A Indianapolis, Duffy has been pretty impressive in 116 at-bats with a .349/.415/.509 batting line with 13 stolen bases and he has been caught just three times. Duffy was recalled after the Craig Wilson trade and has not done much yet, but the Pirates seem to have more faith this time around. Duffy has a career minor league line of .299/.354/.415; if he could come close to that in the Majors, 25-30 stolen bases a season is a distinct possibility.

Nate McLouth is similar to Duffy, but has better speed, slightly better power, and is two years younger at just 24-years-old. McLouth has spent the entire 2006 season in the Majors and should be in line for the starting right field job in 2007 when Jeromy Burnitz finally departs. For the season, McLouth is batting just .228/.292/.360 in a sporadic 250 at-bats as an occasional starter and defensive replacement. McLouth still has the spark that won him most exciting player votes in the minors. In a full season of at-bats, McLouth could steal 40 bases by managing just a league average on-base percentage.

He will not come cheap but Jason Bay is a great base stealer. In the Majors, Bay has attempted just 36 steals and been caught just eight times. In the Minors, Bay was a 30-40 steal guy. That ability is still there; it just needs to be tapped. By increasing his stolen base attempts, Bay could become the most valuable fantasy outfielder in almost any style league. For the Pirates, something as simple as a change in managerial philosophy could change them from one of the more boring offensive teams in the league to one of the most exciting. The Pirates want desperately to be the Oakland Athletics but they just don’t have the personnel and do not seem to grasp how to acquire it. I’m sure Billy Beane wouldn’t share this with the Pirates but I will – the secret of Moneyball was not acquiring on-base specialists; it was making the best use of the players available to you. The Pirates have speedy defensive slap hitters; design the offense around them and it might actually work for both the Pirates and fantasy owners everywhere.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

No License Is Required to Run a Fantasy League

By ALAN SCHWARZ
Published: August 9, 2006

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, the Internet arm of Major League Baseball, had a major setback yesterday in its attempt to regulate the growing fantasy baseball industry when a federal judge ruled that companies do not need licenses to operate such leagues.

A St. Louis company that runs fantasy leagues, CBC Distribution and Marketing Inc., had sued Major League Baseball Advanced Media, saying that the players’ names and performance statistics were in the public domain.

Four weeks before the trial was set to begin, United States District Court Judge Mary Ann Medler upheld CBC’s argument in a 49-page summary judgment. She rejected baseball’s claim that the use of the players’ names in commercial fantasy leagues violated their rights of publicity. She also ruled that even if CBC’s repetition of purely factual information had violated those rights, it was was trumped by the United States Constitution.

“The players’ right of publicity,” she wrote, “must give way to CBC’s First Amendment right to freedom of expression.”

According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, more than 15 million people spend about $1.5 billion annually to play fantasy sports — games in which fans draft and run their own teams of real-life players. Virtually all of them use an outside service like CBC to keep track of rosters, players’ statistics, trades and more.

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, in addition to owning the electronic rights to team logos and video clips, bought the Internet and wireless rights to the players’ images and names from the Major League Baseball Players Association in January 2005 for $50 million. It licenses large content packages to companies like Yahoo and CBS Sportsline for deals worth approximately $2 million apiece and had sought to regulate the use of players’ names and personas by the hundreds of smaller operations like CBC that use only names and statistics.

“Using basic factual information — as distinguished from using a player’s name to endorse a product — does not violate the right of publicity,” said Rudy Telscher, a lawyer representing CBC. “This was just baseball trying — and I don’t blame them — to seize this growing area and make money on it.”

Officials from Major League Baseball Advanced Media could not be reached yesterday for comment on whether the company would appeal to the Eighth Circuit Court, a process that would take about another year. Jim Gallagher, a baseball spokesman, told The Associated Press, “We need to talk to our partners, the Major League Baseball Players Association, before we have anything more to say.”

This Week In Fantasy Sports (Football and Baseball)

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6652

John Turvey of Fanball.com discusses the joys and pains of preparing for Fantasy Football Season. Then John explores what happens when you give your target audience an early chance to explore your findings.

They flipped to the appropriate page, found my team (seventh pick in a 10-team draft) and immediately called into question my selection of Domanick Davis in round two (14th overall).

They pointed out that his line blows—which is true for pass-blocking, I countered, but they effectively employ the same zone-blocking scheme Gary Kubiak used in Denver and have produced solid numbers for Dom in the past.

They noted that he's been nicked up throughout his career—again, a valid concern, but one I believe can be insured by grabbing his handcuff (like Davis owners did with Jonathan Wells did last year).

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6629

Court E. Mann of Fantasy Football Weekly discusses the football annuals and the disappearance of the Fantasy Football Bust.

At Fanball, we publish three preseason magazines under our Fantasy Football Weekly moniker in

June, July, and August. In both the June Annual and the August Draft Issue, we devote an entire feature to 15 reliable fantasy starters from the previous season that we slap the Bust label on. In the July Just Cheat Sheets issue, each of our editors is forced to choose one prominent name at each position as their Bust, and that player must be ranked in the top 15 at that position.

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6615

Jay Powell shares his semi-unique draft strategies. I think he may be on to something.

In the third round, I added wide receiver Roy Williams, whom I expect to thrive in the offense that Mike Martz is installing in Motown. At the time I picked Williams, the list of available running backs included Warrick Dunn, Reuben Droughns, and Carnell Williams. Fans of the "Do the Opposite" approach should also know that Chargers tight end Antonio Gates was also available.

http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.6664

The guys at Fanball.com have been busy with team previews. Each one includes Notable Offseason Moves, Position Battles and Keep an Eye On blurbs. Check them out starting with this one on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Griffin has more name value, but Dee Brown appears to have the inside track to earning the No. 2 spot on the depth chart should Holmes retire. Brown has impressed the coaches during the offseason workouts and will challenge Griffin for the role during training camp. The Chiefs signed Kyle Turley to compete with Jordan Black for the starting right tackle job. Turley has battled back problems over the last few seasons. He also allegedly threatened to kill former Rams head coach Mike Martz, so Edwards might want to consider entering the witness protection program if he has to cut Turley this summer.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/tips.php

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2006/tips_projecting_wins.php

Bob Hoyng tries his hand at creating a projection system for WHIP. I haven’t played with it yet but he could have something useful here.

My main thought here (looking at this situation from a fantasy baseball manager’s point of view) was to use this information to find pitchers whose bad luck over the last few years had deflated their value to the point where they were bargains. To do this I would need one formula to project ERA, and another formula to project WHIP. I could then take a pitcher’s 3 year averages in the component numbers (BB, K, HR and IP) and find the guys that showed a large variance between actual, and projected ERA/WHIP both, to identify the over and undervalued pitchers.

Bob then goes on to predicting wins for pitchers. I’ve actually tried this and it isn’t easy. Bob has a grasp on the concept, give it a look and decide if it works for you.

Projecting the number of games a team is going to win during the course of the upcoming year is definitely not to the point that it’s an exact science. We can try to use tools such as the expected lineup’s Runs Created/27 outs or other such methods to project the runs the team will score. We can look at what type of era we expect the team to put up as a whole as well, and apply the Pythagorean Expectation formula to try and estimate the team’s wins. It’s kind of like predicting the weather - it may not be 100% but it’s the best that we’ve got.

My interest in this article is in explaining how we can extend this approach to predicting pitchers. And more importantly to try and project the wins for ALL pitchers - not just starting pitchers. In order to determine the winning percentage for a team from the Pythagorean Expectation formula we need two numbers - runs scored and runs against. In projecting the wins for pitchers we need one extra number - the number of opportunities (decisions) that we expect the pitcher to receive. While there can certainly be progress made from the point that this article will take us, the general approach that I will lay out here is a good start to estimating the number of decisions any pitcher will receive. Before we get into the detailed examination of predicting opportunities though, let’s take a look at the first two numbers - runs scored and runs agains

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/sleepers.php

Adam Lewis has Fantasy Baseball Cafe’s Sleeper of the Week. He believes this week’s sleeper could very well end the year in a closer role. Names have been redacted for entertainment purposes.

At the moment, ****** is the ****** closer, but look for ****** to take it from him in the second half. It has been said that ****** gets the ugliest saves of any closer. ****** never seems to have a 1-2-3 inning, nor does he have that ‘out’ pitch closers need. ****** is also now suffering from elbow tendonitis, which sometimes is hard to shake. With ****** being injured, and journeymen and castoffs in the bullpen, look for ****** to get his fair share of opportunities. The ****** have the worst bullpen in the league, so ****** will get his chances to rise above. For now, keep an eye on the closing situation and keep your eyes on this rising 22 year old hurler.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlIGHpWY0vmOeCiXC.dV1KkRvLYF?slug=jp-mauer062606&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Jeff Passan tells us why it’s good to be Joe Mauer.

Though being good might give Mauer the utmost pleasure. Because it proves, once and for all, that the Twins weren't erring solely on the side of spendthrifts when they chose Mauer with the first pick ahead of Mark Prior, and that Mauer wasn't crazy for leaving behind a scholarship to play quarterback at Florida State to sign with the Twins.

http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=be-noise_062206&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&league=fantasy/nfl

Brad Evans explains why its all about the money in the NFL and gives us a few names we can count on to provide a performance worth major ducats.

For fantasy football aficionados, knowing who's playing for a big payday is vital info. For example, last year Ladanian Tomlinson was a unanimous No. 1 pick for many owners. However, LT drafters were kicking themselves by season's end for not picking Shaun Alexander. The popular second fiddle bulldozed his way to the top of the rankings, totaling a staggering 27 rushing touchdowns. His record-breaking campaign and consistency – he scored at least once in 14 of 16 games and had 11 100-yard rushing performances – were a cornerstone on many championship rosters. Why did Alexander reach unprecedented heights? He was looking to cash in.

http://rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=22869

Aaron Gleeman gives us the scoop on a trade as its about to happen and some tidbits from around baseball.

Speaking of rumors, things appear to be heating up on the Miguel Tejada front. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Tejada may have been linked to Jason Grimsley’s now-infamous affidavit. Grimsley and Tejada played together for parts of two seasons in Baltimore, so the media attention on the story is sure to explode within the next couple days.

Meanwhile, the newspaper also quoted sources within the Orioles organization as saying that the team may be “ready to deal their starting shortstop before the July 31 trade deadline.” Team officials indicated last week that they were “unlikely” to deal Tejada, but even then said they’d listen to offers.

http://www.baseballnotebook.com/essay.asp?esource=e_062106.asp&topt=Trading%20-%20The%20Art%20of%20Selling%20Low

David Luciani of Baseball Notebook expounds on the Art of Selling Low. Its interesting stuff, as always the guys at Baseball Notebook go a little bit against the grain to get at the truth of things.

Everyone knows the stock trading concept that dictates that we should "buy low, sell high." It makes sense and there's no need to prove here that the trader who successfully does this, in stocks or in fantasy baseball, will be successful. When fantasy baseball was relatively new, or at least spreading in popularity around North America, some of the early official Rotisserie materials rightly advocated the concept of "trade them while they're hot and get them while they're not." The idea which helped many a fantasy owner in the mid 1980s and even into the early 1990s was that certain players have a track record and if they start slow, they can easily be acquired. Conversely, many players are notoriously slow starters and the intelligent fantasy GM can go out and pick them up relatively cheap.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/06/war_stories.php

Bob Klapisch explains why journalists and teams just can’t get along any longer. With the Jay Mariotti and Ozzie Guillen story raging maybe Bob can come up with a solution better than sensitivity training. While you’re at it check out my Sportsblurb.com article on that very topic.

Younger reporters who sometimes complain that today's stars, like Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran, have nothing interesting to say, obviously don't know what it's like when the players declare war on the press.

Still, the newcomers have a point about the thick wall of clichés. Where did all this new millennium caution come from? I asked Jeter that very question recently, wondering why he affects that Dawn of the Dead expression whenever the camera goes on. His answer was surprisingly candid.

"It's you guys," Jeter said, nodding at a group of reporters standing around the clubhouse. "Because any time you do something you guys write about it, absolutely anything. You can't really be as loose as you want to be."

http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=NFL&storyid=22866

Gregg Rosenthal examines the NFL East and North and declares that the sleeping Lions are being roused by Mike Martz and his new offense.

Jon Kitna has reportedly opened up a big lead in the battle to be the team’s starting quarterback. Dan Orlovsky may be passing Josh McCown to be the backup. … The running back depth chart is odd after Kevin Jones. Arlen Harris is reportedly second, ahead of mainstays Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner. I try not to get carried away with minicamp depth charts, if they even exist. Look for Bryson and rookie Brian Calhoun to have roles behind Kevin Jones once the season starts. For now, Jones owners may want to wait to handcuff him. Martz wants Jones to play on third downs and near the goal line, which could make him a great RB2.

http://longgandhi.com/061706.html

Long Gandhi looks at the future of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation.

Anyway, I thought I had written about a month ago that I didn't think Janssen would be long for the Blue Jay rotation because he didn't fool hitters with his stuff. More precisely, that hitters didn't swing and miss. He got strikes primarily by getting fouls and calls. That works in the short term, but eventually hitters will get his timing and start hitting him... hard. Just looking at his last two outings, against the Orioles and Marlins of all teams, that appears to be happening now. Put another way, he's given up at least 4 earned runs in five of eleven starts. Take out his two starts against the Angels, which came fairly early in his major league tenure, and his ERA is 6.24 and WHIP is 1.567. How's his style gonna play against the division rival Yankees and Red Sox against whom he's yet to face? My guess is not well. Sure, his K/BB rate is nice, but so was Josh Towers and we see how well that has turned out. Casey Janssen's time in the Blue Jay rotation will be coming to a close very soon.

http://www.rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=gordon&name=F20060626135043

Jeff Gordon goes deep into This Week In Baseball.

Russ Ortiz, SP, Orioles: ... Baltimore hopes to turn Ortiz around after his washout in Arizona. As a D'Back, Ortiz was 5-11 with a 6.89 ERA in 2005 and 0-5 with a 7.54 ERA this season. It doesn't get much worse than that.

But he had a fruitful working relationship with Leo Mazzone in Atlanta, so the O's figure this was worth a shot. "I think Leo is always up for a challenge," Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo said. "He's usually up for getting someone back on track. It seems like his track record is he's able to do that."

http://www.sportsblurb.com/baseball/stock.asp

My article for Sportsblurb.com.

Guillen might have a point if Mariotti was a beat writer, but he is not. Mariotti is a columnist that has the job we all wish we did. He goes to the NBA finals and flies from there to the next big event and from there to the next. Mariotti, in a rather wussy fashion, claims that the Chicago White Sox clubhouse is too dangerous a place for him to risk showing up. Of course, I am sure if reporters were being beat up after games we would have heard about it by now.

EA Sports Head Coach - the Commercial

Anyone out there play video games? I'm interested in this one. Thanks to Joe Bryant of FantasyFootballGuys for pointing out the link in his free newsletter.

Watch It Here!

A Fantasy Baseball Update

Casey Kotchman who has been putting a hurting on some fantasy teams this year revealed last night that he's been dealing with the effects of mononucleosis for the last seven months. The disease can sap your strength and I guess thats what Casey wants us to blame for his horrible stats thus far. I'm not actually buying it but if it helps you deal him to a rebuilding team its good information.

Richie Sexson is another first baseman off to an awful start. I have no doubt Sexson will come around but it'll have to wait until he recovers from the bruised right heel and slight ankle sprain he suffered in Wednesday's game. He shouldn't miss too much time with the problem but he'll be sitting on the bench and creating a hole in your lineup for a few days, which might be a welcome change from his daily ofers.

The world of closers is shifting once again. The latest? Eddie Guardado has been at least temporarily removed from his closer position. Mike Hargrove has promised a closer by committee situation but look for J.J. Putz to get the bulk of the chances. Rafael Soriano is also likely to win a few. Soriano is probably the better long term bet based purely on talent but if Putz continues to pitch well in the closer role he might just hold it.

Royals Designated Hitter Mike Sweeney is hitting the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back. Supposedly it isn't the same disk that ruined last season (as if that mattered). He could be gone a while, I'm guessing at least six weeks but its hard to tell with Sweeney. The good news for fantasy owners and Royals fans alike is the call up of Justin Huber. Huber will be just the first in a trio of call-ups that should dramatically change the fortunes of the Royals despite the inept managing of Allard Baird. Huber is pretty similar to a younger and healthy Mike Sweeney. You should pick him up if you have a place for him or if you just lost Sweeney.

The Brewers have lost starter Tomo Ohka for at least a month and possibly the season with a tear in his rotator cuff. The Brew Crew is expected to call up Dana Eveland who has been dominating AAA. He has a .75 era in six starts. Eveland seems ready and probably should have made the team out of spring training but hey, things happen. If Eveland gets the call you want him.

The Official 2006 All Super Fantasy Sleeper Team

Just so we're all on the same page this is my super sleeper team for 2006. I define a sleeper as a player that for various reasons will cost signicantly less or be drafted much later than their projected value would seem to suggest. I would not suggest buying this entire team although I think anyone of these players will return much more value than you'll pay.

C - Miguel Oliva Marlins
C - Gerald Laird Rangers
1B - Jason Stokes Marlins
3B - Terry Tiffee Twins
CR - Adrian Gonzalez Padres
2B - Bobby Hill Padres
SS - J.J. Hardy Brewers
MI - Alberto Callaspo Diamondbacks
OF - Nathan McLouth Pirates
OF - John Rodriguez Cardinals
OF - Rondell White Twins
OF - Victor Diaz Mets
OF - Corey Hart Brewers
Utl - Kaz Matsui Mets
SP - Adam Wainwright Cardinals
SP - Rich Hill Cubs
SP - Scott Olson Marlins
SP - Dustin Nippert Diamondbacks
SP - Scott Baker Twins
SP - Edwin Jackson Devil Rays
SP - Shawn Estes Padres
RP - Shinji Mori Devil Rays
RP - Todd Coffey Reds
RP - Travis Bowyer Marlins

Preparing for the 2006 Fantasy Season (Part Three) - Building a Quality Farm System

Not every fantasy league utilizes a farm system but I do believe that any player in a keeper league will benefit from reading this article. This article will give you my views on how to build a fantasy farm system and the benefits of doing it in various ways. You might be surprised how the hype a player receives can effect a players value in his league regardless of his actual performance. A quality farm system can either provide you with the players necessary to create a fantasy league dynasty or give you the bait to annually trade for the pieces that will shoot you up the standings. READ ALL OF THE ARTICLE BELOW

Cameron Maybin has the potential to be not just the best prospect on the Tigers but entering the 2007 season he may be the best prospect in the American League assuming that players like Delmon Young, Brandon Wood and Alex Gordon graduate to their respective major league teams.

Building A Quality Fantasy Baseball Farm System

When it comes to minor leaguers fantasy league owners often fall into one of two camps. In Camp One we have the owner obsessed with

rookies and young players. This owner is usually so determined to own his favorite ROY candidates and top prospects that he'll often sacrifice winning. He does this by paying far too much for young and inexperienced players in the auction and by refusing to part with his favorite players even when that player might buy him a championship. I have absolutely no problems with this type of player they are often among the most knowledgeable baseball fans in your leagues. The owners in Camp Two are often the polar opposite. These guys will almost never roster a rookie or inexperienced player. When they are forced to make picks for their farm system they often do so with Baseball America's Top 100 prospects issue open in fron t of them. They may even cross off selected players directly on the pages.They pay little attention to their farm systems and will often part with their farm system picks and whatever minor leaguers they happen to roster with little regard as to their value. I have no problem with these owners either. This type of owner often finishes in the money and usually walk away from the auction with the best teams. I don't think I have to tell you that the best owners in fantasy leagues are in neither camp.

How Does a Strong Fantasy Farm System Help?

A strong farm system will help you win. If built correctly your farm system will provide your team with a steady source of emerging fantasy baseball stars and a constant supply of cheap players that can be moved in trades for expensive players or players with a more certain value. In a tough keeper league a strong farm system can be the difference between finishing in the money and actually winning it. We've all been (or we all hope to be) in that situation wherein we can taste a championship and all we need is a few more steals or saves. The problem is every player on your active roster with enough value to bring a closer or stolen base artist is also essential to your championship drive. Its that Delmon Young, BJ Upton or Felix Hernandez that will bring you the player you so desperately need. Or maybe those first three guys are too valuable to your roster of keepers next year maybe you can combine a lesser player on your active roster with a minor leaguer like Brian Anderson or Dustin Pedroia. Then imagine after the season when you're trying to put together a group of keepers that will allow you to compete. Maybe some owner in your league doesn't believe in the value of Jason Giambi or fears a steroid suspension. You could be all over that if you have depth in your farm system. Would Jason Bartlett and Ian Kinsler make your final cut of keepers? Maybe you can trade your extra depth to improve even further. You might not believe how easy it is to sell another owner on a $5 minor leaguer due to start at shortstop who might steal twenty bases. A strong farm system can make your already strong roster unstoppable.

The First Step is to Know the Rules of Your League

The rules in every league are different. In some leagues minor leaguers are all $10. In other leagues they may be $5. Still other leagues may use tiers with a first round pick costing $10 a second round player $5 and a third round player just $3. Before you can come up with the best strategy for your league you have to know the rules inside and out. How many minor leaguers can you have on your roster? As many as you like? What are the rules about activating minor leaguers? Do you have to activate a minor leaguer as soon as he's activated by his major league team? Can you hold him in your farm system the entire season without starting the clock on him? Some leagues let you carry an active minor leaguer for the whole season for free but make you declare him as one of your keepers if he makes the 25-man roster on opening day. Another rule to look into is which players qualify to be drafted. Can you pick a college player or a player from Japan or high school? Is anyone in the minor leagues eligible or must they still qualify as rookies? Can you activate a player from the minors as a shortstop even if they've previously played twenty games in the majors as a DH? If you can tailor your draft picks to fit your unique league rules you'll have an even greater chance of success.

Selecting the Right Players

When selecting your players in addittion to having a complete knowledge of your league rules there are several decisions and evaluations you must make:

• How long can you give any given player to develop? Every player is different. Some players shoot through the minors in less than a season and need never return. Another player might shoot through the minors and then struggle to stay in the majors. Still other players may take several years to advance to the major leagues. Your league rules may dictate how long you can give a player to rise to the majors. You also need to consider the state of your team and your keepable players. If you have a strong group of keepers and plenty of money to spend in the draft you might be able to wait on a few longer term minor leaguers. On the other hand you might have few keepers or little money to spend in that case you might want to draft guys that are likely to appear in the majors very soon. A player that is close to the majors is very valuable trade bait but can also give your team a mid-season shot in the arm.
• What does your team need to compete this year? Do you have strong pitching keeps but few batters? If so you may want to grab hitters that are close to the majors. A strong farm system can help you fill needs as the season progresses. Imagine if you needed a hitter last year and had Ryan Howard or Jeff Francouer in your farm system. You could've added them to your team or traded one or both of them for Pujols in the last year of his contract or an expensive but effective Todd Helton, or both. Did you need a closer? Maybe you had Bobby Jenks or Derrek Turnbow in your system. Steals? Wily Tavares could have helped. Starters? Chien-Ming Wang or Chris Capuano might have helped. I guarantee you in any given season a minor leaguer comes up that can help your team with whatever you might need to compete. Maybe you have a solid roster and just want players that will be worth a bunch in a trade. Maybe you're rebuilding this year, you might want to consider stock-piling picks if your league allows you to keep as many minor leaguers as you wish.
  
• What type of player does your league over value? Every league over values some type of player. It might be young players. It could be closers. It could be older veterans. I've even been in leagues where starting pitching was dramatically over valued. Picking the type of player your league is likely to over value could benefit you in more ways than one. You might have a far cheaper than usual version of that type of player or you might have some very desirable trade bait. Either way you win if you can add over valued players.
  
• What positions are weak in your league or in the majors in general? If there are no third basemen in your auction perhaps you should draft a third baseman close to the majors. Rather than pay top dollar for a Kevin Youkilis or Troy Glaus draft Alex Gordon or Andy Marte. If you think stolen bases will be hard to come by in your NL-only league perhaps its time to draft Marcus Saunders. The catching in the NL looks pretty pathetic this year it might be time to grab George Kottaras or Neil Walker.
  

How to Find the Right Players Before Everyone Else

First you need to decide how much time and money you're willing to invest in this. If you're in multiple high stakes leagues paying for subscriptions to great sites like Scout.com and Baseballamerica.com may be more than worth it. Neither site is that expensive when you consider just how much information you get access to on a daily basis. Scout.com is a great site. They have a site for every team in every major sport run by guys who do nothing but follow that team and evaluate its prospects. In addittion they provide scouting reports on college and high school players. Scout.com is a little more expensive but you also have the option of subscribing for a month at a time for about $8. A month might be enough time to get a glimpse at all the major league sites and pick out some very good players. If you can afford it every fan of baseball should subscribe to Baseball America. Just in case you don't know Baseball America is the only real magazine that covers exclusively baseball year round. They report on every aspect of the sport but they have a heavy emphasis on the minors and amatuer competitions which is exactly what you want to know about. It costs about $60 for a year long web-only subscription. It is worth it but I also understand those who don't want to pay that much to study up for their fantasy leagues. Getting both sites would probably cost you $140 a year but worth every penny. Don't ignore these sites because of the cost as both also provide the occassional free article that are always worth reading.

Being the great guy that I am I will also provide a far cheaper alternative plan. While signing up for the two sites above will get you very very far if you're willing to work harder I can save you a lot of dough and get you a similar quality of information. The high stakes guys with lots of time may want to combine both plans which is the way I wish everyone could do it but it just isn't realistic for a lot of us.

Step One - Add the following sites to your bookmarks or favorites and check them everyday year round:

• www.minorleagueball.com - John Sickels runs this site and he knows the minor leagues as well as anyone. The people that comment on his various articles also tend to know their stuff and provide lots of relevant information.
• www.warmoctobernights.com - This blog run by Matt Jacovina provides the same sort of top ten prospect reports that Baseball America and other sites offer but its all free. Hell, there aren't even any ads to distract or annoy you. He truly knows his stuff and will often hip you to prospects that others are sleeping on.
  
• www.baseballanalysts.com - This site is similar to Baseball Prospectus (another great site worth paying to read) but without the air of superiority that can sometimes grate on the nerves. They provide regular articles on baseball, sabermetrics and prospects. They acknowledge the fantasy crowd as some of their most frequent fans and provide nice content in that context.
  
• www.rotojunkie.com - This site is awesome for several reasons. Anyone who plays fantasy should be checking into their forums on a daily basis as they have some of the smartest players and many acknowledged experts posting their thoughts on various players, strategy and baseball news. To top it all off Jason Collette is the site's minor league authority and provides many articles on players and teams that will help you immensely in preparing for your fantasy drafts.
  

Between all these sites you aren't likely to miss much that happens in the world of prospects. I do suggest you spend a little money. Invest in the Baseball America Prospect Book. This book provides all the top tens that you'll find on the site plus the next twenty prospects for each team. The book is available from just about every bookseller for about $20 and if you look real hard to sites like amazon.com you can find some really good deals. But don't stop here. If you really want to be the best you need to do some work on your own. When you find prospects that sound interesting on various sites go to www.thebaseballcube.com and look at their complete stats yourself. Everyone has their favorite criterion for judging the future of prospects. If you do the work I've assigned you you'll develop a method that works for you in no time (I'll provide you with my own special method in a future article - I've gotta keep you coming back for more).

Peace.

Spring Training Thus Far - Player Notes

Josh Beckett - Red Sox fans had better hope that Curt Schilling doesn't irritate Josh Beckett right out of Boston. Schilling seems to think of himself as a mentor for Josh Beckett. Beckett seemed to take it well but a season of it might start to get on his nerves. We know for a fact that Randy Johnson couldn't take much of Curt's constant blather.

Curt Schilling - If nothing else Red Sox fans can be grateful that Schilling feels ready for the season. In fact he claims he is no longer rehabbing but instead doing normal conditioning. "I'm ready to be good again", he said.

Francisco Liriano - Liriano, who is in competition with Scott Baker for the Twins' fifth starter job may hurt his chances if he competes in the World Baseball Classic as he plans (Dominican Republic). A less than stellar showing in the showcase could send him back to AAA or at least the bullpen. On the other hand a great showing in the classic could cement the job for him. Either way no one should underestimate the ability of Scott Baker. Baker was considered the better prospect before Liriano's rocket through the minors.

Kaz Matsui - The Mets gave Matsui's corner locker location to veteran Bret Boone. The chances of Boone beating out Matsui should be slim but its pretty obvious who the Mets want to have the job. I happen to think that Matsui if healthy will show us something this season of course the Mets have to give him the opportunity first.

Scott Olsen - The young Marlin lefty who missed the end of last season with elbow inflammation is feeling fine now. He was feeling fine after throwing all his pitches off a mound on Tuesday.

Dallas McPherson - McPherson seems to have dropped off the planet due to his injury plagued 2005 season. He seems to have lost any chance at the full time third base job to Chone Figgins. Instead McPherson will get some time at first and designated hitter. Don't forget about him. When Garrett Anderson lands on the DL you'll be glad to have McPherson stashed away in reserve.

Michael Megrew - Megrew was a selection in this winter's Rule V draft. Megrew had Tommy John Surgery in 2004. He feels 100% healthy and now feels as if he just needs to get his velocity back. Megrew could turn into something but he'll need to successfully stay on the major league roster the entire season, on the Marlins that might just be possible.

Josh Willingham - Josh will get lots of on the job training this spring. The Marlins want him to be an acceptable catcher so he can play at least a few games behind the plate as well as in left and at first. Even if he doesn't catch he'll be worthwhile getting the majority of his at-bats from left field.

Kendry Morales - Manager Mike Scioscia believes it would be a stretch to see Morales break camp with the big league team. Scioscia believes Morales has an explosive bat with 30-homer potential, but has things he still needs to work on before he can hit major league pitching. He's probably right but I don't think Kendry is far from major league success. Even Scioscia believes its mostly about gaining experience.

Jim Thome - Thome is another vet coming off serious injury problems last season who is now claiming to be just fine. back injuries are tricky. You never know when they'll creep back into your life. Big Jim Thome will probably be okay this year but don't pay for the completely healthy version until you see him moving well with your own eyes.

Kerry Wood - Wood isn't ready to throw off a mound just yet. he'll likely start the season on the DL. If all goes well he'll be back by May.

Eric Gagne - Gagne also claims to be 100% healthy and says he'll be in his old form by summer. "There is no doubt" he said, "No doubt at all that I'm going to go out and do my job. I know that for a fact."

Barry Bonds - He might retire. he might not. Don't pay any attention to what he says. Instead pay attention to how he moves and how often he plays. If he looks normal draft him.

Adrian Beltre - Beltre will be the starting third baseman for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. According to Dominican Republic manager Manny Acta, Beltre was one of the first to sign up for duty.

Pedro Martinez - Pedro has been testing out his new custom shoes, which are designed to protect his ailing toe. Pedro acknowledges that the toe may keep him from participating in the World Baseball Classic. The Mets are being supportive of Pedro's desire to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the WBC probably because they know getting Pedro angry won't help anything. The Mets say Pedro can pitch on the toe as it is but fear that if the toe really pains him he may alter his delivery and hurt his arm as a result. Omar Minaya pointed out that all players who participate in the WBC are fully insured.

Billy Wagner - Wagner was feeling queasy on Monday and was unable to throw off a mound. he went home with a stomach virus. Apparently his kids had been sick with it all week.

Scott Rolen - Scott Rolen had his surgically repaired shoulder examined Saturday by the Reds medical examiner Dr. Tim Kreunchek, who also performed the operation. Although the results were not made public the Cardinals seemed encouraged by Rolen's long tossing session in the outfield on Monday.

Andruw Jones - Jones isn't content with his 50 homer season in 2005. he wants to exceed it this year by being more consistent. He wants to hit for a higher average. i don't put anything past this guy. He's got all the tools.

Andy Tracy - Tracy was traded from the Indians to the Orioles the other day. Tracy has some power but don't make anything out of this. Tracy mike be okay off the bench but he'll have no fantasy value. I'm really only listing it because it was a trade made during spring training.

Gary Sheffield - Brian Cashman in an attempt to control a potential problem announced to Gary Sheffield that barring anything unusual the Yankees would be picking up his $13MM option for the 2007 season.

Greg Maddux - Greg Maddux mentioned his next potential contract as a motivational factor this season. When guys like Maddux are motivated (especially by money) don't bet against a big season.

Josh Hancock - Josh was releaseed for being 17lbs overweight. Did anyone really care?

Mark Prior - Prior is once again behind the other pitchers in Cubs camp. In the last two years he's pitched in only one regular spring game. Prior suffered from a throat infection this winter that required him to go the emergency room. he has yet to throw from a mound this spring. The Cubs are making noise about putting on a slower more methodical rehab program this spring. I guess it can't hurt. The Cubs really need Prior to stay a part of the rotation this season if they hope to have a prayer of contention.

Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez was visibly slimmer coming into camp this year. Ramirez has expressed an interest in playing in the WBC but seems to be leaning towards sticking in Cubs camp. He is still apparently recovering from his injury problems and wants to put his health and the Cubs before the WBC. What a great guy.

Erubiel Durazo - Durazo signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. He had ligament replacement surgery in July. he should nicely complicate the DH position for Texas.

Peace.

Preparing-For-the-2006-Fantasy-Season-Part-Two

Felipe Lopez probably came cheap in 2005 and makes a great keeper.

If you followed the direction given in Part One of Preparing for thr 2006 Fantasy Season you have a grasp on two things. The talent on your roster and its general worth to others in your league and what sort of talent the other teams in your league are holding. With this information you're armed to take the next step.

Trading to Increase the Talent Level of Your Keepers

In order to trade effectively you must always have three things in mind:

1. The strengths and weaknesses of your present group of keepers. This means you know the dollar value of your players for the next season (an approximate level if you haven't found projections you like or prepared your own). The positions where you have good talent you can keep and the positions where you don't have good value. You also want a general idea of the auction value of your keepers. You need this information so that you don't trade away more value than you mean to trade and so you know how much value you should expect in return.
2. The needs, strengths and weaknesses of the team who holds the player you've targeted. It is never to your long-term advantage to rip off another team. While you should target the players that best suit your needs you also need to keep in mind the needs of the team you're dealing with. If at all possible you want to offer your opponent players he needs. If you can't actually offer what a team needs you should be sure to offer significant value in return. You should always consider whether or not you'd do the same trade if you were in the shoes of your opponent. It isn't always necessary that you would do the trade in reverse but you must be able to see why your opponent would do the trade and what value they'll receive in return.
   
3. How the trade effects your talent level, your draft budget and your draft strategy. Before making any trade you should have at least a general idea of your draft or auction strategy and how the player or players you're seeking fit into that plan. You want to be sure that you are getting a player or players that will actually help develop your strategy rather than just adding players at good values. For example, Mark Buerle at $22 may be a great deal in your league but if your strategy is basically LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) you'll actually be wrecking your own plan. In the same league Hideki Matsui at $24 may not be a great bargain but its a player that will actually fit into your plan and that is your primary goal.

Before you make any deals you should rank your keepers in order of value. You want to know which players fit best into your strategy and which should be traded if at all possible. If you can keep eight players and you have twelve quality keepers then #'s 8,9,10,11 and 12 become the players you'd most like to trade. If you can't improve over your eighth keeper then you shouldn't attempt to trade but rare is the occassion where you can't trade and make yourself better. Also, if you've somehow ended up with four great second basemen trading at least one of those should be a priority.

Here are three tips for making trading easy:

1. Don't bother with lowball offers. Lowball offers are insulting. When your opponent becomes insulted two things happen. He wants to get the better of you and he becomes resistant to your efforts to trade with him no matter how reasonable your subsequent offers become. A good way to judge is to measure the amount of profit your end of the trade provides against the amount of profit on your opponent's end. Don't offer any trades that are more than 10% in your advantage.
   
2. Make offers your opponent can actually accept. While you're offering fair value consider if your opponent can actually fit the players onto his roster of keepers. You maybe able to offer your opponent six players with a profit of $30 total for a one player who is $30 undervalue but your opponent gets nothing out of this deal but clogged roster spots. Also, don't offer your opponent a corner if he already has three corners that are obviously better values. Taking your opponents needs into consideration will always make trading easier.
3. Don't be afraid to overpay if you can do it safely. If you have an abundance of quality keepers and cannot use them all in fair trades, overpaying to get a player that may not have been available otherwise is a very acceptable if underused tactic. Just take care that you don't make your leaguemate a better deal than necessary or that making the trade makes your opponent's roster stronger than yours. When you will obviously have to overpay it may be wise to make your first offer one that cannot be refused because it is so obviously in his favor.

I apologize about the large gap between posts lately. Real life intervened and made posting difficult. But I should be back on a regular schedule from this point forward. Thanks for sticking around. Peace.

The Marlins Trade Luis Castillo to the Twins

MLB.com has the story:

First reported by ESPN's Peter Gammons, the 30-year-old Castillo is heading to Minnesota for hard-throwing reliever Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler, who can start or relieve.

Castillo is the latest big-salary player to be dealt by the Marlins, who are streamlining their payroll now that their stadium efforts in downtown Miami have fallen through.

Fantasy Impact:

Castillo's arival will push Cuddyer into a battle for right field with Kubel and Ford. It pushes Punto to the bench. GM Ryan seems to want Cuddyer to win a spot but thus far he has failed to keep the job for an entire year. We'll also have to watch how this affects the lineup. Will Castillo move up to leadoff or will he stay in the #2 spot this time behind Shannon Stewart? Joe Mauer should benefit by finally having someone to drive home. This is especially true if the Twins sign Mike Piazza or Frank Thomas as has been rumored. Looks like the Twins are finally going to put together a lineup to go with their great pitching.

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: New York Yankees

(man, did I mess up on this one...)

The Yankees aren't often a team you to for rookies or young guys. The New York roster is usually filled with superstars like Alex Rodriguez and Randy Johnson. Last year two young players had a huge impact on the Yankees: Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. The one obvious spot where a Yankees prospect could have gotten a huge opportunity was center field but the Yankees filled that hole with yet another superstar, Johnny Damon. There don't appear to be any obvious openings for a youngster to win a starting position or even a rotation spot. The Yankees should however make good use of young players on their bench and in the bullpen. For those of you drafting farm players the Yankee farm system is improving and players like Philip Hughes and Jose Tabata could rise quickly thru the ranks. The depth at AAA and AA is not great but Brian Cashman made moves that should provide reasonable insurance in case of injuries. The players listed below probably won't be fantasy superstars (although the potential is there) but should make solid late round picks or end-game acquisitions.

Andy Phillips: Phillips probably won't be a great hitter in the majors but he does have power. He's primarily a first baseman but he has spent time at second and third. Right now it looks pretty good that Phillips will play first when Giambi is at DH. Giambi will do his best to avoid too many at-bats as the DH because for some reason he can't focus at the plate when he doesn't also play the field at least thats what the stats tell us. Some have speculated that Bernie Williams will get at-bats at firstbase but I think thats pretty unlikely. Williams will get the majority of DH at-bats and the occassional appearance as a pinch hitter but very little time in the field. Just taking a guess at how much Giambi will be able to play the field suggests to me that Phillips will be good for 200-300 at-bats assuming he doesn't completely suck. In mixed leagues that probably won't be worth much but deep AL-only leagues will probably find the 8-12 homers (if he stays on the roster all year) very useful.

Kevin Thompson:Will the Yankees carry 11 or 12 pitchers in 2006? I'm hoping that Thompson makes the team either way. Thompson should be the Yankees forth outfielder this year but if the Yankees carry 12 pitchers Joe Torre's warpped sense of loyalty may convince him to carryy Bubba Crosby instead (with 11 pitchers they both make the team). Thompson is younger and a superior hitter to Crosby and a better fielder as well. He can play all three outfield positions. He had 64 extra-base hits between AAA Columbus and AA Trenton in 2005. He also stole 43 bases. Sounds a lot more useful than Bubba Crosby to me and i think the Yankees agree.

Tyler Clippard and Jose Veras:There isn't room for this pair on the projected 25-man roster. Clippard is a legit Yankee prospect. He throws hard and has decent control. He is a very good strikeout pitcher. Clippard will likely be the first Yankee prospect called up in case of an injury. Jose Veras isn't really a prospect but he was the closer for AAA Oklahoma in 2005 and the closer for Escogido Lions in the Dominican Winter League where he pitched well. He strikesout a lot of batters his main problem is the base on balls but he could fill a hole in a lot of major league bullpens.

Chien-Ming Wang: Wang made quite an impact on Yankee fans last year and apparently on the Yankee brass as well. The Yankees refused to include Wang in their many different trade discussions this winter but his name came up often. Some forecasters may be frightened off by his extremely low strikout rate in the majors in 2005. I'm not. His strikoue rate has been consistently around 6/9IP in the minors and at times has been higher. My real concern is his lack of experience as a professional. The Yankees and most fans seem to see him as a starter but I think he'd be larger asset in the bullpen. His ability to limit homeruns and get groundballs is perfect for a set-up man. I don't see it happening. The real reason I list him here is to caution against paying too much for him. He should be a decent pitcher but drafting him as if he'll win 20 games in the New York Yankee rotation would be a serious error. Just like everyone else on these lists he's better drafted in the late rounds or bought during the end-game of your auction.

Robinson Cano: I'm conflicted on Cano's potential. I've read enough comparisons to Soriano to be hopeful but I honestly don't see it. Cano hit a lot of doubles last year and since he doesn't really have spectacular speed I have to assume that shows he does have some legit power potential. He doesn't have much in the way of plate discipline but Soriano has greater power and speed to help compensate for his own lack. He also seems resistent to accepting the Yankee (Joe Torre) way of doing things. Robinson Cano has already had a few negative stories written about him. This more than my lack of faith in his potential is why I was one of the few Yankee writers willing to move him for a quality center fielder. Draft Cano looking for a repeat of 2005 and you may be disappointed. I'd expect him to hit around .270/.320/.425 with around ten homeruns. That isn't a terrible prediction for him but the thing to remember is he's more likely to decline than improve in 2006.

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have dramatically improved their farm system over the last few years. They have a nice collection of position players and a stunning number of superior pitching prospects. 2006 may be the year that the Red Sox actually work the first wave of prospects onto the major league roster. As with the last group of young players we reviewed please understand that the players listed aren't necessarily fantasy studs (although that potential is there). The players listed should be considered potential bargains and great end-game and late round picks. The idea of the strategy is that young players make better roster filler than the more famous veteran players. Most publications will have you avoiding rookies and young players but I think the key is to incorporate them properly into your roster. Okay, here are the young players to watch on the Red Sox:

Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis has been hanging around for a few years without much opportunity to contribute. this should be his break-out year. KY is a master at drawing walks. He has decent power although not nearly what we've come to expect from a first baseman. He hasn't hit for a great average lately either but I believe thats a result of inconsistent at-bats. The common perception may be that Youkilis is destined for another year on the bench because of the recent signing of JT Snow. Snow is an excellent defensive first baseman but is a decent platoon hitter at best. The Red Sox will give Snow at-bats but Youkilis should get around 500 at-bats between appearances at first, third and DH. UPSIDE: .300/100/20/80/2 from the second spot in the order.

Andy Marte: Its almost embarassing how easily the Red Sox dumped their $40MM flop in Edgar Renteria for one of the best prospects in baseball. There has been speculation that Marte is suffering from a serious elbow injury. This has been denied by bothe the Braves and Red Sox. The injury story is just a desperate search for an explanation of how the Red Sox out manuevered other teams and saved talent while increasing their talent level. The big question is what the Red Sox plan to do with Marte. Since his acquisition he's been included in almost every Red Sox trade rumor. My gut feeling is the Red Sox traded for marte to play him at third base. Mike Lowell is presently considered by most the Red Sox starter. One of these guys will be moved before the season starts. Its certainly possible that Marte could be used in the outfield but he really doesn't have the foot speed necessary for a permanent switch. Marte is going to be an awesome power hitter. he probably isn't much better than a .280 hitter but he shouldn't be terrible at any aspect of hitting. If by chance he ends up sitting on the Red Sox bench snatch him up as your CI or UTL for cheap or with a late round pick. You won't regret it. Its time for Marte to shine and soon.

Jonathan Papelbon: Papelbon may start the year as a reliever but he won't stay there. Papelbon is too good a pitcher to waste in a middle relief role. He'll likely be priced as a middle reliever but you should draft him as a starter and a good one. He's been compared to Roger Clemens and while that may be overstating things he will be really good. He should add 150 to 200 strikeouts depending on his role. I see him developing as a solid innings eater who provides strikeouts and wins as long as he stays on a good hitting team like the Red Sox.

Jon Lester: Lester will likely start at AAA but he's even better than Papelbon. Lester is a number one type starter and i don't say that lightly. He's a powerful lefty starter who gets strikeouts and allows few hits. If you can find a way to roster him you should. I think he'll end up just as good as Felix Hernandez who I consider to be the best pitching prospect to come along in decades. Roster Lester any way you can and you won't regret it.

Look for a review of the D'Backs and Yankee young players very very soon.

Rookies and Young Players to Watch: St. Louis Cardinals

The players in these reports are not necessarily rookie of the year candidates or even potential fantasy stars. The players I'm going thru in these team reports willbe younger players that should have a role in 2006 and make potentially great end game or late round picks. Obviously when we're discussing young players there is always the potential for much more and thats why these reports (which should be daily, hopefully) will focus on the young role players rather than older ones who are more likely to be hurt or decline rapidly. You should clearly understand that this particular element of strategy does not suggest you should take one of these players rather than someone like Shawn Green but rather that one of these players can boost the potential of your end-game better than say an Al Leiter or Steve Finley. I guarantee you that almost every magazine you pick up will have Steve "No Starting Position" Finley ahead of John Rodriguez. The difference is John Rodriguez is rising as Steve Finley is falling. Packing as much potential as possible into your end-game can be the difference between 9th and 4th or even 1st and 2nd.

Anthony Reyes: Anthony Reyes was drafted the same year as Mark Prior and could very well be the better pitcher. While Prior was a superstar in college, Reyes suffered injury problems which hurt his draft position and delayed his progression through the minors. Now Prior is looking injury prone aand Reyes is ready to emerge as a star in the major leagues. The addittion of Sidney Ponson to the Cardinals' roster may seem to throw a wrench into Reyes' plans but i don't think it will. Reyes even at this point is a far superior pitcher to Ponson. Ponson will serve most likely as a long reliever and spot starter. I see Reyes as a potential Clemens like pitcher. The only thing in his way is a history of injuries he must put behind him.

John Rodriguez: John Rodrigues tore up the Puerto Rican Winter league in limited at-bats. He hit .346 with seven hmers and 28 rbi. Rodriguez is now 28 years old. he spent nine years in the Yankee system where he showed he could hit although he didn't perform any spectacular feats. He signed with the Cardinals as a six-year minor league free-agent and something changed when he hit AAA Memphis. He suddenly showed amazing power. He hit .342/.419/.808 in 120 at-bats. That performance earned him a promotion to the majors when Reggie Sanders got hurt. In 149 sometimes sporadic at-bats Rodriguez didn't embarass himself hitting .295/.382/.436 mostly against right-handed pitching.

Hector Luna: In my opinion Hector Luna would make an excellent $1 MI in NL only leagues in 2006. Luna was a 2003 Rule V Pick from the Cleveland Indians. He has potential that hasn't really been seen in the majors but would be especially nice out of a late round second baseman. Luna hasn't won any jobs yet so you'll have to watch how things develop but even if Luna doesn't win the starting job I can pretty much guarantee he'll see significant time (200-250 at-bats in the least) as a utility player. The Cardinals have brought in several mediocrities to compete for the second base job but none are obvious starters. With full time at-bats I believe Luna could hit .270-.280 with 8-10 homers and 10-15 steals. Its not A-Rod but it has meat on the bones.

Adam Wainwright: Wainwright is one of the Cardinals few high level prospects. Two years ago Wainwright was considered equal if not superior to Anthony Reyes. Wainwright missed most of the 2004 season due to elbow problems. He avoided surgery and appears mostly recovered. The time out cost him some control which elevated his hit rate and his walk rate. Wainwright had been looking better and better every year before the injury. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in their rotation but Walt Jocketty is smart enough to use his young potentially great pitchers whereever possible. Players like Ponson and Marquis won't be the way for long. The Cardinals are definitely deep enough in their rotation to be able to trade a few starters to improve their lineup and there are hitters available for just that price. If Wainwright starts in the bullpen grab him for a dollar or two and be confident you got a steal.

Player Profile: Mark Prior

Fantasy Impact:
When healthy Mark Prior is a good pitcher. He hasn't been nearly as good as we all expected but that potential is still there. However, before Prior can reach that potential he has to learn to stay on the field. I'm not sure if its Prior's motion, Dusty Baker's abuse or just bad luck which is keeping Prior off the field but it certainly seems that the Cubs are almost done waiting for him to turn into the ace they thought they had cheaply. In a draft I wouldn't pay anything close to full price for Prior and unfortunately (if you want him) thats what you'll have to pay as Prior is stillvery very popular with the fantasy crowds.

Expect and Pay for no better than:

150 IP / 3.50 era/ 1.20 whip/ 12-12 record (remember the Cubs stink)

Background:
Prior grew up in San Diego and was a fan of the Giants and Padres. When he started pitchers he modeled himself after Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. He bcame a major star while still with the University of Southern California. He pitched for Team USA. He was drafted #2 overall by the Cubs after the twins elected to pick Joe Mauer. He recieved $10.5 million to sign with the Cubs. Prior is a disciple of Tom House and constantly works to refine his mechanics.

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2002	CHC	19	19	6	6	0	1	0	116.2	98	45	43	14	38	147	3.32	1.17	.226
2003	CHC	30	30	18	6	0	3	1	211.1	183	67	57	15	50	245	2.43	1.10	.231
2004	CHC	21	21	6	4	0	0	0	118.2	112	53	53	14	48	139	4.02	1.35	.251
2005	CHC	27	27	11	7	0	1	0	166.2	143	73	68	25	59	188	3.67	1.21	.227
Career		97	97	41	23	0	5	1	613.1	536	238	221	68	195	719	3.24	1.19	.233

Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball's Lunatic Fringe

Most of the books you'll read about on this site will be more of the annual and reference guide types. Fantasyland is a book I'm really looking forward to buying. Rather than write about how good I think it is before actually reading it, I'm going to show you some clips of the reviews I've found and the places you'll find them.

Netshrine.com:
As a sportswriter, Sam Walker has the access that most fantasy team owners can only dream about – in that he has a direct connection to players, scouts, coaches and general managers. As such, in the book, there are many remarkable stories involving Walker’s roto-related exchanges with current major league baseball participants such as Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Guillen, David Oritz, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Miguel Batista, Mark Shapiro, Jim Beattie, Theo Epstein, Dave Littlefield, Billy Beane, Kenny Williams, Lou Piniella, Alan Trammel, and Mike Scioscia – just to name a few (from a list of numerous personalities).

Imagine talking then Devil Rays Manager Lou Piniella into using B.J. Upton as a Designated Hitter because he’s on your rotisserie team and you need the At Bats. Walker did it. Imagine e-mailing then Orioles G.M. Jim Beattie to see if Luis Matos was about to lose his full-time job – and getting a fast and honest answer. Walker did that as well. Imagine asking Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz if he would trade himself in exchange for Texas Rangers speedster Alfonso Soriano (because you need steals in the standings) and then having a debate with him over it. Again, Walker did this. Fantasyland is full of entertaining and sometimes startling dealings such as these mentioned here.

Publisher's Weekly:
When Walker, a senior writer for the Wall Street Journal, enters his first fantasy baseball tournament, he aims high: Tout Wars, a competition for guys who make a career out of analyzing stats to find the best Major League hitters and pitchers. He figures that because he can get to the ballparks in his journalistic capacity and talk to the players and coaches, he'll be in a better position to judge the intangibles and pull one over the pure numbers crunchers. But even with the help of a young research assistant and a NASA scientist, things quickly head south. This hilarious diary of the 2004 season includes several encounters with the players Walker has picked; from Jacque Jones's struggle to refute predictions of mediocrity to David Ortiz's razzing Walker for trading him away. Along the way there are mini-profiles of the Tout Wars competition, as well as explorations of the origins of fantasy baseball (predating even the famed Rotisserie League) and the shaky relationship between dedicated statistical analysts and Major League executives. Readers might even pick up a few tips on how to draft their teams this spring, but the real fun is in watching Walker's well-laid plans unravel.