Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Daisuke Matsuzaka Arrives



I love this time of year when there is baseball newsevery single day (even if some of it is silly and made up). Yesterday the big news was the rookies of the year. Hanley Ramirez won the National League Rookie of the Year by batting .292 with 17 homeruns, 51 stolen bases and 119 runs scored. In the American League the winner was Justin Verlander who lead his team t o the World Series by pitching to a 17-9 record with a 3.63 earned run average.

Today the big news is the National League Cy Young. Brandon Webb won over closer Trevor Hoffman. Chris Carpenter was third and Roy Oswalt was fourth. Webb was 16-8 with a 3.10 earned run average with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Mets traded right-hander Heath Bell (who I've raved about elsewhere in this blog) and lefty Royce Ring to the Padres for outfielder Ben Johnson. This is a great move in my opinion for the Padres. I've believed Ben Johnson to be overrated and I think Bell is closer material. This also makes it easier for the Padres to trade the much hyped Scott Linebrink. The Braves seem to like Linebrink a lot and would give up Marcus Giles to get him. On the other hand this might make it easier for the Mets to trade one of their outfield prospects like Lastings Milledge or Martinez who the Marlins want in return for Dontrelle Willis.

Former New York Mets coach Manny Acta has a new job. Manager of the Washington Nationals. Stan Kasten, the Nationals’ team president, and Jim Bowden, the general manager, said Acta impressed them with his personality, his knowledge of the team and his ideas about how to turn around the club, which finished last in the National League East the past three seasons.

Baseball is planning another World Baseball Classic for 2009. We can only hope that they won't have it happen during Spring Training again. Interrupting the season would be better than that. But in my opinion the best option would be after the World Series.

Today's moves also include yesterday's moves since I was so certain we would finally get definitive news on Daisuke Matsuzaka I waited most of the day. The News did come but by then I wrapped up in other business so you get two days today, lucky you.

Today's Moves:

The Huge news yesterday was the official announcement that the Boston Red Sox won the bidding for the rights to negociate a contract with 26-year old Japanese Ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox bid was for a stunning $51.1 million. (No more Evil Empire talk, Larry Lucchino) Boston's bid of $51.1 million was bigger than the Opening Day payrolls of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Colorado and Florida for the 2006 season.Although there are rumors that the Red Sox have no intention of signing D-Mat (the nickname given him by agent Scott Boras) and that the large bid was an attempt to keep him from the Yankees. I am not buying it. The Red Sox are a lot more secure than than some of their fans apparently. D-Mat, is the best pitcher available and if the people I trust to evaluate and translate his stats are correct he would be the best pitcher available most seasons. When I start doing my teams reports which will include blurbs on all their major players and prospects Matsuzaka's will be a fun one. Stay tuned...

The New York Yankees and Mike Mussina have agreed on a two-year $22.5 million contract extension. The Yankees more than likely had this deal in their pocket as they waited to find out the results of the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding. The Yankees may not be as aggressive after this year's free-agents as some seem to think. Brian Cashman intends to re-build his pitching staff with young arms.

Moving on to a guy I'm sure we are all familiar with; The Toronto Blue Jays signed right-hander Matt Roney to a one-year contract. Roney is a pitcher that despite jumping around quite a bit has had some success in the minor leagues. Last season in Sacramento as part of the Oakland A's system he had a great season. He pitched 58.0 innings ub 47 relief appearances with a 9.00 H9, 0.62 HR9, 2.95 BB9 and a 10.09 K9. Probably as good an available relief pitcher as Justin Speier whomay get a three-year $13 million dollar offer from multiple teams.

The Colorado Rockies signed infielder Kazuo Matsui to a one-year contract. The Rockies see Matsui as a potential leadoff hitter which is what the Mets used to see. Fortunately for the Rockies they've actually managed to see recent signs that Matsui can still hit. Matsui will receive a base salary of $1.5 million with incentives that could add another $950,000. With the Rockies in 113 at-bats Matsui batted .345/.392/.504 with 2 homeruns and eight stolen bases.

The Mariners signed an assortment of minor leaguers to contracts but the ones you should know about are: right-hander Jesse Foppert and infielder Rey Ordonez (who knew he was still kicking around). Foppert has supposedly lost a lot of velocity but these things have suddenly returned in the past. Do not touch Ordonez.

Jason Standridge
was picked up off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds by the New York Mets. Standridge has not been good in the majors but his minor league numbers have been interesting. Last year in triple-A in 46 innings pitched he had a 7.83 H9, 0.39 HR9, 2.93 BB9 and 8.41 K9.

The Mets also re-signed free-agents Jose Valentine and Orlando Hernandez. Valentine is most likely the super-utility player but will get playing time at second depending on who the Mets choose to bring in at the position. El Duque was 9-7 with a 4.09 earned run average for the Mets. He was a huge part of their rotation when everyone seemed to go down with injuries.

The Cubs signed former Texas Ranger (the baseball kind not the Chuck Norris kind) Mark DeRosa to a three-year $13 million contract. The Cubs think he can handle a fulltime job. With the Rangers DeRosa batted .296/.357/.456 in 520 at-bats with 40 doubles, two triples, 13 homeruns and four stolen bases. He is now 31 years-old and this is really his first real success as a fulltime player. He would not be the first to break out this late but I'd be hesitant to bet on his future.

The Hot Stove Noise:

Phill Rogers says that the Yankees have expressed interest in both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte and this is probably true. But not for the reasons some might think. The Yankees are serious about giving their collectionof young arms a shot but they can't simoly enter re-building mode. If the Yankees were able to sign one or both to one-year contracts that would give the Yankees the flexibility to move young players into the rotation and bullpen without giving up the season or committing to a multi-millions and even worse multi-years deal. Brian Cashman is going to do things right and those teams that have been living large off luxury tax payments had better go to plan B and fast.

From the San Francisco Chronicle: Major-league sources said Tuesday the Giants are negotiating with Juan Pierre, who had 204 hits, 156 of them singles, and stole 58 bases in 78 attempts for the Cubs in 2006...Rather than try to re-sign Ray Durham or another big-money free agent to play second base, the Giants might go with a tandem of Kevin Frandsen and an experienced backup -- Craig Counsell or someone similar. Frandse
n hit .215 in 93 scattered at-bats as a rookie but is tearing up the Arizona Fall League...The Giants have investigated relievers Justin Speier, Joe Borowski and others with late-inning experience as insurance for closer Armando Benitez. Speier was Toronto's setup man and Borowski Florida's closer in 2006, and both are said to be attracting a lot of interest as potential closers. Another option is re-signing Mike Stanton.

The Giants have a ton of money to spend this offseason. The salaries of their departing free-agents will give them nearly $40 million to spend if they choose. Why they would choose to give a big chunck to Pierre is a bit beyond me to answer. Pierre is a decent fielder which is made slightly irrelevant by his extremely weak throwing arm (the reason he did not last in Colorado in the first place). Despite his speed and his ability to make contact he is not a great leadoff hitter. The Giants would be better off trading for triple-A player like Kevin Thompson than putting millions into a player like Pierre. But that is the way teams seem to go these days. If someone else gave them the money they must still be worth it, right?

From the New York Times: The Mets did not rule out the possibility of pursuing a right-handed hitting second baseman, like Mark Loretta, Adam Kennedy, Rich Aurilia or Julio Lugo, on the free-agent market to complement Valentín. The Mets have spoken with several teams, including the Chicago White Sox, about potential trades at the general managers meeting here. They are interested in pitchers Freddy García and Javier Vázquez, a longtime favorite of Omar Minaya’s. No one on the Mets is untouchable, Minaya added — “Babe Ruth got traded,” he said — although he did not elaborate on the turn of events that befell the Red Sox afterward. Minaya has received many inquiries about the Mets’ stockpile of young pitchers and outfielders.

The Mets’ pitching list begins with Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey, their highly regarded draft picks from 2004 and 2005, and it also includes Brian Bannister, Alay Soler, Oliver Pérez, John Maine and Aaron Heilman, who would prefer to start next season and would not be averse to receiving that opportunity elsewhere. It is doubtful that the Mets would consider trading Humber or Pelfrey except in a blockbuster deal that would yield someone who would remain under their contractual control for a few years.

The Mets will need to do battle with the Boston Red Sox to acquire Julio Lugo. Boston has coveted Lugo for almost two years now. I do think the White Sox will trade one of their starters for a bat. I do not think the Mets have the bat the White are going to want.

From the New York Post (mostly Joel Sherman): the Yanks strongly believe Boston is pushing hard to sign J.D. Drew to bat behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez...The Yanks would rather go short-term and pay heavy for a pitcher they like, notably Andy Pettitte if he decides to keep playing, or perhaps Roger Clemens. Failing that, they saw a World Series in which Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver were heroes. They feel they have upgraded their scouting and are as likely to pluck a pitcher who will need just a one- or two-year contract - think Miguel Batista or Adam Eaton - who will pitch as well as, say, Padilla at a fraction of the cost. That is the right notion.

Adam Eaton is probably my favorite available starter behind Matsuzaka. Barry Zito has great stuff but has been so inconsistent in execution that spending $80 million on him scares me a lot. Eaton has #1 starter stuff even if he has never actually pitched that way. And as Sherman points out he will come cheap. You remember when people started to give up on former Braves prospect Jason Schmidt? I think Eaton will come around in the same way. He just needs a year or two of health.

A-Rod is represented by Boras and has said often, despite strong indications to the contrary, that he likes New York and wants to remain a Yankee. After the 2007 season, Rodriguez has the right to void the final three years on his contract and declare free agency. He would be walking away from $81 million (of which the Yanks are responsible for $51 million, with the Rangers picking up the rest).Following the 2007 season, Rodriguez will gain leverage to potentially follow one of three paths: 1) to opt out as a free agent; 2) to push the Yanks to extend his contract upon threat of opting out; 3) to use the threat of opting out and the Yanks getting nothing to push the Yanks to trade him to a desired spot so that he does not have to forfeit the $27 million annually."If he chooses [to leave], so be it," Cashman said. "He earned the rights he has in that contract through fair negotiations."

I get the feeling that Cashman would secretly love the move. He would also love if third base prospect Eric Duncan were ready at that point. I have my doubts abou that.

With Mike Mussina re-upping to fall in between ace Chien-Ming Wang and Randy Johnson, if he is healthy, the Yankees have shown an interest in Seattle free agent Gil Meche and are entertaining the possibility of using newly-acquired Humberto Sanchez in a trade for an established starter.

I like Meche's stuff a lot as well but I've sort of given up on him achieving and higher heights. From Eaton we've seen flashes between injuries. From Meche we haven't seem much at all.

Minaya has broached the idea of trying to acquire star center fielder Vernon Wells from Toronto to play left field next to Carlos Beltran. The Mets had not yet broached the idea with the Blue Jays. In addition, Toronto officials indicated if they were to trade Wells, they would want starting pitching in return that is more certain than the Mets' enticing but not yet proven arms such as Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, John Maine or Oliver Perez.The Blue Jays are trying to re-sign Wells, who can be a free agent after the season. They are not likely to be able to do that, but since they have hopes of contending in 2007, the Jays might just decide to keep Wells and make a decision in July based on where they are in the standings whether they would trade him or not.

Kei Igawa is trying to come to the U.S. through the posting system from Japan, though with far less fanfare than Matsuzaka. He is a lefty that former Met and current Chiba Lotte Marines manager Bobby Valentine assessed as having a fastball that maxes out at 92 mph, plus a changeup and slider. Valentine said, "He can pitch there as a No. 4 or 5 starter and win 12 games with a good offense."

From Mark Healey at Gotham Baseball:
Cashman is wiping his roster clean of players (Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright) that insiders say he wanted nothing to do with in the first place, word is that he's focusing on his minor league depth as much as the improvements needed to improve his club at the major league level.Cashman's growing role as a major player and power broker is scaring the "bejeezus" out of the mid-market teams, says one MLB scout, who says that "a Yankee team looking at the big picture and long-term franchise screws up the market. "Teams that call the Yankees are facing the reality that Cashman actually wants All-Star caliber players in return for his highly-rated prospects, not the one-dimensional veterans that used to litter the Yankee roster every year. That's bad for baseball."

I think it is pretty obvious to everyone that Cashman got what he wanted from last year's negotiations. George Steinbrenner has stepped aside and been so quiet that reporters keep wondering if he's alive, seriously.

Reports out of Florida say the Mets are engaged in active discussions with the Florida Marlins for the services of Dontrelle Willis, with Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge as the main pieces in any deal. Well, after speaking with two MLB officials, we've been able to confirm a few phone calls between hotel suites, but not much else, except for one interesting note. Milledge is a player that Florida “likes”, but they “love” Fernando Martinez, and if the Mets include him in any deal, it'll get done. I am reporting this for the simple reason that this detail tells me that no deal will get done, because Minaya has no intention of including Martinez in any deal for any player. "Minaya has other guys in his system that he's willing to deal, but not that kid. No way/”

I'm not so sure. Shouldn't Minaya have learned someting from last season when he refused to include Milledge in any deals? I love Martinez too, a lot more than I do Lastings Milledge but The Mets have the money and the space in the payroll to find another hitter. Hell, they another outfield prospect in Carlos Gomez that I like almost as much. Willis would be hugely popular in New York the mets should make the deal.

From Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (and the big gun in Baseball Reporting these days if you ask me): The Cubs, the most aggressive club at the general managers' meetings, are just getting started. The team's ideal blueprint, according to new manager Lou Piniella, includes the addition of two more hitters and two starting pitchers. The Cubs might not accomplish all that, but they've already added free-agent infielder Mark DeRosa and re-signed third baseman Aramis Ramirez and right-hander Kerry Wood for a combined $89.5 million. If they signed free agent Alfonso Soriano, their No. 1 target, to play center, they likely would add a lesser outfield bat to alternate with Jacque Jones and Matt Murton...Perhaps the most fascinating development in the aftermath of the DeRosa signing is that the Cubs continue to pursue free agent Julio Lugo, whom they envision batting leadoff and possibly moving to center field, according to major-league sources...Don't look now, but the representatives for free-agent right-hander Adam Eaton believe that he might command a four-year deal — not bad for a guy who has made only 35 combined starts the past two seasons due to finger injuries.The Cardinals, facing the possible losses of free-agent right-handers Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver and left-hander Mark Mulder, were among the clubs that met Tuesday with Eaton's agents...

Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell has informed the club that he would accept a trade only to the Yankees, Red Sox or a west-coast club, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking. The Phillies badly want to move Burrell, who has a complete no-trade clause. They also would be willing to trade center fielder Aaron Rowand for a quality reliever...

Pat Burrell if he were willing to move back to first base might be a good fit with the Yankees who are looking for a first baseman.

The Brewers and Orioles have discussed a trade that would send outfielder Kevin Mench to Baltimore for right-hander Rodrigo Lopez; the Orioles also have expressed interest in another Brewers outfielder, Geoff Jenkins, but their bigger priority is believed to be free-agent left fielder Carlos Lee...Believe it or not, teams are contacting the Yankees about trading for right-hander Carl Pavano; the Rockies are one club that might have interest if the Yankees paid a portion of the $21 million that Pavano is owed over the next two seasons. The Yankees, naturally, say they won't give Pavano away; their public position is that they want him to get healthy and be productive. Still, it's difficult to imagine the Yankees rejecting even a mediocre offer for a pitcher who has been a severe disappointment. One rotation possibility that the Yankees might consider, with or without Pavano: Right-hander Scott Proctor, who was one of the team's best relievers last season.

Yes, the Devil Rays bid for the negotiating rights to Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, but they wouldn't necessarily play him at third. The Rays like that they could plug Iwamura into a number of positions: Second base, outfield, even first as a last-ditch measure. Speaking of the Rays, a rival scout who saw shortstop Ben Zobrist in the Arizona Fall League says that the former Astros' prospect is as good a player as the Twins' Jason Bartlett — and the scout offers the same opinion about Giants second baseman Kevin Frandsen...

Very interesting. I like Barlett a lot. I didn't think Zobrist had that type of speed. I'll have to look into it. Of course I will share what I find. But where does this leave B.J. Upton? I have no clue what the Devil Rays are thinking most of the time.

The Diamondbacks have made a pitch to free-agent left-hander Mark Mulder, but if they want him to help anchor a starting rotation with Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, they may have to offer more up-front money than perhaps any other interested team. That's because the Diamondbacks, under Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick and his fellow owners, basically refuse to make incentive-laden deals where a player can earn more salary during a season through good health and production. Mulder, who underwent rotator cuff surgery on his pitching shoulder in August, likely would command a hefty contract if he were healthy.


Avoid pitchers coming off of shoulder surgery. This is good advice for fantasy owners and major league GMs.

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer: The Marlins might take a run at Franklin Gutierrez. Florida needs a center fielder and Gutierrez, with one option left, seems to be blocked in the Tribe's outfield.

This makes a lot of sense for the Tribe. Gutierrez is behind Shin Soo Choo, Casey Blake and whatever player the Tribe brings in this season. The Marlins have bunches of major league ready pitching they can deal back.

Till next time... Peace.


powered by performancing firefox



powered by performancing firefox



powered by performancing firefox

Monday, November 13, 2006

The Hot Stove Heats Up

The Hot Stove Season begins in earnest today as the GM Meetings get started in Naples, Florida. Few trades or signings happen at the GM Meetings but the groundwork starts to get set and the rumors start to fly. Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be providing you with a daily look at the moves made and their possible fanatasy implications. I hope you will visit frequently as we get this place heated up! Check in tommorrow as we hopefully have some Daisuke Matsuzaka news.

The Moves Made: (for November - from this point onward it will be daily)

The Chicago Cubs managed to re-sign their third baseman Aramis Ramirez to a five-year $73 million deal. I'm guessing the Cubs figured they'd better put their best offer on the table before other teams got in the mix. While I can't say I would have given such a bad defensive player that much money the Cubs can afford it and they need Ramirez to stay in town if they hope to win. Ramirez probably has his best value playing in Wrigley Field so this is cool to fantasy players.

You can hate on the New York Yankees if you wish but they are making good moves so far this offseason. On Saturday they traded right-handed starter Jaret Wright and the cost of his buyout ($4 million) to the Baltimore Orioles for reliever Chris Britton. Britton pitched 53.2 major league innings in 2006 with a 2.85 BB9, 6.88 K9 and allowed just 0.67HR9. These are solid relief stats. In the minors in 2005 Britton pitched 78 innings in high-A with a 2.36 BB9, 12.58K9 and 0.57HR9. At double-A in 2006 he pitched 16 innings with 3.38BB9, 13.5K9 and 0.00HR9. He will pitch in 2007 at just 24 years old. Not only the Britton make a very nice one dollar relliever you have to think that he could develop into a possible replacement for Mariano Rivera down the road.

The Cincinnati Reds signed outfielder Bubba Crosby to a one-year major league contract. When I first heard this I was fairly incredulous as to why. Then I started to hear some Ryan Freel trade rumors (to the Rangers) and it made a little more sense. The Reds have never seemed to like Freel as much as his fantasy owners and as just a back-up defensive center fielder Crosby is useful.

The other Yankees move this weekend was to trade the grumbling Gary Sheffield to the Detroit Tigers for three quality pitching prospects. Humberto Sanchez being the headliner with Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett. Sanchez was raised in the Bronx and should quickly become a favorite of fantasy owners who are also Yankee fans. Sanchez was the starter of the futures game and depending on you you talk to could become a frontline starter or a dominating closer.

The bet here is the Yankees will use him the rotation. I will soon be posting a lot more about all three players on my New York Yankees site Bronx Pride but for now you should know that Sanchez just a combined 123 innings in 2006 thanks to some supposedly minor elbow problems. He has had other injury problems in the past to his knee and elbow but never has required surgery. For double-A Erie Sanchez pitched 71.2 innings with a 5.90 H9, 0.25 HR9, 3.39 BB9 and 10.80K9. In Triple for the Toledo Mudhens 51.1 innings pitched with a 8.77H9, 0.35 HR9, 3.51BB9 and 7.54 K9. I will cover Whelan and Claggett in more detail on this site when I do my minor league reports.

Sheffield, according to various sources, will become a designated hitter for the Tigers. This will push Marcus Thames to the bench most likely. Thames may be a good one to move in an early offseason trade before this gets announced. As long as you can get fair value for him.

The other big move from last week I want to cover is the Josh Barfield for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown trade. I have heard lots of grumbling from the sides of Barfield and Kouzmanoff owners and I understand. But this trade will increase the production of both players. Obviously Kouzmanoff was going to have to wait for a position to open up in Cleveland before he could get a shot. Some say he could have played first base but between Ryan Garko, Victor Martinez and Casey Blake the position is probably covered and at third he would need to wait for Andy Marte to not just fail but be given up on which would delay his arrival until 2008 at least and at 26 years-old already he doesn't want to wait. Petco Field should be a very good place for Kouzmanoff's to-all-fields hitting style. There is an opening at third base and the Padres have only Russell Branyan as a real alternative. To replace Barfield the Padres have $30 million dollars that they fully intend to spend every penny of this season. They can also seemingly move reliever Scott Linebrink to the Atlanta Braves anytime they like for Marcus Giles. There are a bunch of quality second baseman available via free-agency including Alfonso Soriano, Mark Loretta and Julio Lugo. For those that are not familiar Kouzmanoff batted .389/.449/.660 with 15 homers and 19 doubles in 244 double-A at-bats this season and .353/.409/.647 with 7 homers and nine doubles in 102 triple-A at-bats. In his minor league career Kouz has batted .333/.396/.561.

San Diego also gets right-hander Andrew Brown who is ready to pitch in the majors. Brown was moved to relief in the last couple of seasons for the Indians and he is a good one. In 62.1 innings pitched at triple-A Buffalo featured a 7.51 H9, 0.72 HR9, an unfortunate and a little out of character 5.2 BB9 (in his minor league career his BB9 is just 3.99) and 7.65 K9. In Petco Brown should become a quality reliever who is not altogether dissimilar from Cla Meredith who the Padres robbed from the Red Sox last year (along with Josh Bard) for...brrr, Doug Mirabelli.

Josh Barfield had a solid rookie season in 2006 batting .280/.318/.423 with 13 homeruns and 21 stolen bases in 539 at-bats. What that hides is how much better Barfield was away from the cavernous park in San Diego. On the road Barfield batted .319/.355/.484 with 7 homeruns and 13 of his stolen bases. A little something for the American League Only guys to look forward to enjoying.

The Colorado Rockies excercised their option on Jason Jennings. All by itself this is not all that significant but there are rumors that Jennings could be dealt. Jennings is a solid starter who induces ground balls in Colorado. In a more normal enviroment he could do very good things. In 2006 45.4% groundballs and just 28.4% flyballs, again this is in Colorado, to go with 8.75 H9, 0.72 HR9 (in Colorado), 3.61 BB9, 6.03 K9.

The Chicago White Sox were extremely disappointed with the performance of their outfielders with the exception of Jermaine Dye. Scott Podsednik will probably be given a chance to redeem himself, Brian Anderson may not. There are already rumors that he could be traded with one of their starters. This is what makes the signing of outfielder Luis Terrero interesting to me. Terrero is a former Arizona Diamondback prospect that never really got the opportunity to play. He isn't a great great hitter but he's a competent one who has a little pop and a lot of speed. Last season Terrero ended up in the Baltimore Orioles system but only received 40 sporadic at-bats. But at triple-A Ottawa the 26 year-old had a nice season batting .318/.367/.560 with 21 doubles, 2 triples, 16 homeruns and 18 stolen bases in just 302 at-bats. I am officially adding Terrero to my players to watch list.



powered by performancing firefox

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Where All This Came From

For various reasons I won't go into I've switched between a couple of blogs when publishing my fantasy baseball articles. The last site (fantasybaseballupdate.com) is one I will no longer use. I've gone through a painful process of transfering all the articles (that fit this format) to this blog which will become active again. Unfortunately I haven't figured out how to attach the proper dates to these posts so they all appear as if written today. Oh well.

Please take a look through the Spetember 20th posts I think you'll find some useful stuff in there. I will be adding new stuff almost everyday to this site. I hope you will find the site useful and informative. I also hope that you will be inspired to comment whether to tell me I'm crazy (a popular notion) or a genius (almost never suggested). Should you wish to contact me or send me your ideas, I'm happy to receive your e-mails at jonpwilliams@gmail.com or you can Instant Message me via AIM or Yahoo at bigjonempire.

Peace.

San Francisco Giants Sign International Free Agent

The Giants who have become famous for neglecting their farm system and ignoring minor leaguers have signed a 16 years old Dominican Third Baseman. The Giants outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Mariners to get him. I've gotta believe the Giants think he's the second coming of ...some really good third baseman.

Check out the story:

"Everybody's excited," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. "It's the first time in a while we were at the right place at the right time, because there was a lot of action on him. ... We just have to pick our spots because we don't spend like big-money clubs do in that area. He's a big-money club type of acquisition.

Another Fantasy Sports Outlet

NBC


Join in! Everybody's doing it!

Check out this story:

NBC is launching an online fantasy football game tied to its much-hyped return to broadcasting the NFL this season. Fans will be able to sign up for the upcoming weekly game, Sunday Night Fantasy Football, starting on Aug. 18 at NBCSports.com or immediately at Rotoworld.com.

Unlike traditional fantasy football games, which incorporate real-life player and team performance statistics from an entire week's worth of NFL games, the new NBC-game will draw exclusively from the games featured on the new NBC Sunday Night Football broadcasts. Among the prizes available through the game, which will be free to all fans, is an all-expense paid trip to New York which will include a visit to NBC's Football Night in America studio show.

2007 Sleeper Candidate

Heath Bell
Norfolk closer Heath Bell pumps his fist after striking out the last three batters to end the game against Columbus. Bell’s finished all 25 games in which he’s appeared for the Tides. VICKI CRONIS/THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT


Heath Bell is the closer of the Norfolk Tides. The Mets should be using him as a key part of their bullpen judging by his Triple-A numbers. Given an extended chance as the Red Sox have with Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen I could see Bell being every bit as successful and more.

2006 Norfolk Tides 26.2IP 19H 4R 2ER 4BB 40K 4WP 2wins 2loses 9saves 0.67era 0.86whip as of 08/08/06

From the Virginian Pilot:

As he has become accustomed to doing, Heath Bell struck out the side in the ninth inning, and he's finished all 25 games in which he's appeared for the Tides. Bell, who picked up the win in Saturday's game, struck out Stotts, Danny Garcia and Kevin Thompson. All three went down swinging. It was Bell's 10th save and he has 47 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. Bell hit 96 mph on four of the 14 pitches he threw.

Background:

He was selected by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 69th round of the 1997 amateur draft but did not begin his professional career until 1998 when he signed with the Mets as an undrafted free agent.

Bell has spent his entire career in the Mets organization. He made is major league debut on August 24, 2004 pitching two scoreless innings with three strikeouts against the San Diego Padres. He is currently on the Mets' 40 man roster.

Generally a power pitcher, Bell has averaged nearly a full strikeout per inning but also proved to be hittable in his 2005 sophomore season allowing 10.8 hits per nine innings and a very high 5.59 earned run average.

Bell is married with three children and resides in Port St. Lucie, Florida
.

Baseball appealing fantasy legal victory

By JEFF DOUGLAS Associated Press Writer

Major League Baseball says it will appeal a federal court ruling allowing an online fantasy baseball business to use names and statistics without paying for a licensing agreement.

MLB and its players' union also said Wednesday they expect to win back the right to demand money from fantasy sites like St. Louis-based CBC Distribution and Marketing Inc., which prevailed in its lawsuit in a federal court's summary judgment issued Tuesday.

CBC, which runs CDM Fantasy Sports, sued MLB Advanced Media last year, claiming the statistics and names used in fantasy baseball should be free.

The Stock Exchange written for Sportsblurb.com

The Stock Exchange

By Jon Williams, Pinch-Hitting For Christopher Meyer

06/24/06

Words and Actions

In baseball, his words are considered worse than others' actions...

Ozzie Guillen has a big mouth.

It takes very little prodding to get him to rant about whatever it is that might be on his mind. Obviously this week it was his hatred – I don’t think you can call it anything else – for Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti. You only have to read Mariotti’s latest column to discover the genesis of this feud. Mariotti considers it his responsibility to publicly call Guillen on his every indiscretion. Guillen will tell you and anyone else who cares to listen that he does not actually have a problem with this. The problem in Guillen’s mind is that Mariotti refuses to come to the ballpark and face him as all the beat writers do.

Guillen might have a point if Mariotti was a beat writer, but he is not. Mariotti is a columnist that has the job we all wish we did. He goes to the NBA finals and flies from there to the next big event and from there to the next. Mariotti, in a rather wussy fashion, claims that the Chicago White Sox clubhouse is too dangerous a place for him to risk showing up. Of course, I am sure if reporters were being beat up after games we would have heard about it by now.

Many people will tell you that his feud with Mariotti is not the story. Instead they point to Ozzie Guillen’s use of the word “fag” in his tirade against Mariotti as the more serious problem. Read just about any article about Guillen from last week and you’ll see it suggested that Guillen be suspended for various lengths of time – Mariotti thinks two weeks – lose his job, be fined significantly, and on and on. Why? Because Guillen used what is considered a homophobic slur.

The problem with such thinking is that Guillen was not trying to call Jay Mariotti gay or imply that anything is wrong with being gay. It’s a stupid thing to say but it doesn’t make him a homophobe.

Bud Selig gave Guillen a stern talking to and has ordered him into sensitivity training. It can’t hurt, but I do not think sensitivity training is going to get at Guillen’s real problem. Guillen has a couple of problems I see as far more serious. First, his aggressive attitude that considers beaning players during a game the right thing to do and can get you thrown off the team if you don’t share it is a major one. And, secondly, his obvious inability to think before saying something stupid or to simply shut up when he does not have anything good to say is a problem. I won’t hold my breath waiting for baseball to address these issues.

Guillen’s lack of control is nothing compared to the lack displayed by Phillies starter Brett Myers. The young Philadelphia pitcher allegedly punched his wife in the face on Friday just outside of Fenway Park in front of multiple witnesses. Boston Police responded to a 911 call and found Myers’ wife, Kim Wickman, to have signs of abuse on the left side of her face. Myers was found nearby and was arrested and charged with domestic abuse. Myers was then bailed out by his wife but ordered not to have any contact with her unless at her suggesting. Myers at the time of this writing was still scheduled to make his Saturday start against the Red Sox. If only a man hitting his wife could summon the same media outrage that using bad language does, the world would be a better place.

On the lighter side of this week’s baseball news we were blessed by the return of several players to active duty. The return of Roger Clemens as a starter for the Houston Astros was the biggest story. ESPN was kind enough to broadcast the game so we could all get a glimpse of one of the greatest and most popular pitchers of all time. Clemens was not spectacular in his return but he was solid. His control obviously wasn’t what he would have liked, but he allowed just two runs in five innings and lately the Astros would kill for such quality. They did not have to kill though; they just forked over a prorated $22 million dollars.

We also witnessed the return of Albert Pujols to active duty this. ESPN was nice enough to show us Pujols’ first at-bat, which resulted in a long fly-ball. Joe Morgan accurately pointed out that Pujols’ form did not seem quite right. Pujols seemed to swing with his arms rather than put any torque on his newly recovered oblique muscles. Any doubts raised by his lack of hits on Thursday were erased though by his 4-for-4 performance with a home run on Friday night; so maybe it is only a matter of time before he finds his form again.

As if those were not enough, Thursday also featured the return of A.J. Burnett to active duty. Burnett looked effective and relaxed in his return. Burnett went six innings on just 91 pitches. He allowed just two runs on five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts. With time, he should build his endurance back up and be the fine addition the Blue Jays thought they signed in December.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

The Numbers Game written for Sportsblurb.com

The Cincinnati Reds were just 1.5 games out of the wild card position when they made the following trade with the Washington Nationals:

OF Austin Kearns

SS Felipe Lopez

RHP Ryan Wagner

For

RHP Gary Majewski

LHP Bill Bray

SS Royce Clayton

INF Brendan Harris

RHP Daryl Thompson

The first reaction of almost every baseball fan on the planet was to ask if Alfonso Soriano was missing from the list of players that the Nationals were sending over. I was flipping to ESPN2 between innings of the Red Sox/ Athletics game and I swear I thought I wasn’t seeing the whole trade on the bottom line. The Reds should have gotten a lot more for their starting right fielder and their starting shortstop. That they threw in a former top closer prospect in Ryan Wagner is just plain ridiculous. The problem is the Reds didn’t accurately read the market value for the players they traded. But as bad as this trade is rightfully considered by most it doesn’t really hurt the playoff chances of the Reds. Seriously, for what they sent to the Nationals they could have had Alfonso Soriano in my opinion. But despite their bad judgment the Reds may have accomplished their goal of improving and preparing for the playoffs.

Austin Kearns is easily replaced by either Ryan Freel or Chris Denorfia. Kearns is still just 26 years old and having his first healthy season in a decade but it doesn’t appear that his bat will ever again be considered the equal of Adam Dunn’s as so many projected years ago. But he was having a solid season for the Reds. Thus far Kearns has been hitting a respectable .272/.352/.489 and fielding his position well. The plan for now seems to be Denorfia in right and Freel continuing as the utility guy. Denorfia has been back and forth between Cincy and AAA Louisville which is never good for the numbers. Denorfia hits for a good average and knows how to get on base. He has a career line of .263 .364/.421in the majors through 2005 and a line of .286/.371/.432 in the minors. He’ll never match the power potential Kearns has displayed but his hustling scrappy style will probably go over well with Reds fans. If Denorfia gets 250 at-bats in the second half of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit close to .300 with 8-10 homers and 8-10 stolen bases. The Reds think of Denorfia as a leadoff hitter and he could score a lot of runs in front of Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

Felipe Lopez has a superior bat to Royce Clayton but Clayton is a far more consistent defender. Clayton hasn’t been a total void with the bat this year and a small jump might be possible in the more hitter friendly GABP. But is the difference in defense worth the exchange of bats? Maybe. Lopez has a .959 FPCT, an RF of 3.98 and a ZR of .785 which compared to Clayton’s .970 FPCT, 4.37 RF and .829 ZR make him look pretty bad. Lopez has a hitting line of .268/.355/.394 and Clayton a line of .269/.315/.348. That isn’t a difference that’ll make you forget the defensive gap. Clayton will play everyday as long as he fields his position and doesn’t completely embarass himself at the plate. But my new favorite mid-season fantasy sleeper may put Clayton on the bench eventually. William Bergolla was one of the Reds top ten prospects in 2005 according to Baseball America. Go ahead and make your favorite joke about the Cincinnati farm system, I’ll wait... Done? Bergolla isn’t any thing amazing with the bat but he is an excellent fielder whose only real flaw in the field is an inability to stay healthy. His bat is probably only slightly better than Clayton’s at best but he makes up for it with vastly better speed. Bergolla led the Reds system three years in a row in stolen bases. He stole 52 bases in 2003 and was caught 18 times. The Reds have wanted to move him to shortstop in the past but his poor health got in the way. If the Brandon Phillips trade hadn’t worked out so well he’d probably be the second baseman right now. If you can stash him away for a buck or two you might find yourself in possession of a cheap source of stolen bases. Bergolla has a career minor league line of .289/.343/.377.

Ryan Wagner has been pretty terrible at AAA this year. There is the very real possibility that he isn’t yet recovered from shoulder surgery. If Wagner was the reliever the Reds were hoping they had two years back they may not have felt pressure to make a trade like this. Gary Majewski is probably an average major league reliever but he has a rubber arm and will take the ball everyday of the week if asked. Majewski will become a key set-up man for the new Reds closer Eddie Guardado. But the key acquisition for the Reds is Bill Bray. Bray was the 13th overall pick in the 2004 draft. He is a for real prospect. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and a low 80’s slider and can get outs effectively with either pitch. After signing he was sent to the Arizona Fall league where he pitched 16 innings and struck out 16 batters. Bray has been projected as a future major league closer and could potentially fill that role this year if Guardado’s injury problems prevent him from pitching effectively. By adding Bray, Majewski and Guardado the Reds bullpen is already leaps and bounds better than what they suffered through in the first half of the season.

In my opinion Wayne Krivsky is attempting to duplicate his success with Brandon Phillips by acquiring Brendan Harris. It isn’t a bad gamble to make. Harris hasn’t really been given the shot he probably deserved. When Harris was with the Cubs I heard him compared to Albert Pujols. Yeah, that’s ridiculous but Harris could still become a decent infielder with some pop in his bat. Picking up guys like Harris is exactly what a team with a thin farm system should do. Hell, they should make a collection of failed, stalled and ignored prospects in AAA. I don’t really expect he’ll play much more for the Reds than he did with the Nationals this year but 2007 is always a possibility. Rich Aurillia can’t hang around forever can he? Daryl Thompson is another shot in the dark. Thompson is a 20-year old pitching prospect that has drawn comparisons to Oil Can Boyd. While he has talent he is presently recovering from a shoulder injury. He also hasn’t advanced past A-ball which makes him hard to project.

The Reds are going to need all of these guys to work out as planned to have any hope of winning the public perception of this trade. That probably won’t happen. But if the Reds make the playoffs and players like Bray, Majewski and Denorfia play key roles then they might be forgiven.

Treasure Hunting written for Sportsblurb.com

Have you ever been broke? Have you ever been so broke that you go searching through the pockets of clothing you haven’t worn in months for forgotten dollar bills? Ever tip over the sofa hoping some loose change might fall out. Ever hit the jackpot doing so? I’ve done all of the above at one time or another. When you desperately need to find a player on the waiver wire, when you pull out your 1993 Baseball America Prospect Guide you’re doing the fantasy equivalent of digging in the cushions. Hey, there’s no shame in it. Finding hidden gold is what treasure hunting is all about isn’t it? This is the nothing to lose version of treasure hunting. These guys are gold for 2007 but passing the canary test in 2006 will require you have patience and nothing to lose.

Rich Hill SP Cubs

Rich Hill has not been impressive in his major league stints thus far. Believe it or not this may be to his benefit. Young pitchers in Chicago tend to get hurt. Yeah, I’m blaming it on Dusty Baker. Here’s the Jon Williams Guarantee, Dusty Baker will not be manager of the Cubs in 2007. If he is I’ll eat Trot Nixon’s nasty old baseball cap. Jim Hendry has announced that Baker will finish the 2006 season. GMs don’t make announcements like that unless the manager is in trouble. Dusty Baker is in trouble. Dusty Baker ruined Kerry Wood and Mark Prior; he deserves to be in trouble. Here’s the advice Baker has for Rich Hill according to mlb.com:

"He just has to pretend he's in the Minor Leagues," Baker said. "Sometimes you have to trick yourself. Just tell yourself it's the same game. You've got better hitters, quality hitters, but it's basically the same."

Rich has been dominating in the minors for a couple of seasons now. Extremely dominate. He is 26 years old now so if he doesn’t dominate in the minors he gets released. But Hill hasn’t been just good enough to keep pitching, he’s been outstanding.

2006 AAA Iowa: 100IP/ 15GS/ 1.80era/ 1.03WHIP/ 1.94BB9/ 1.52HR9/ 12.74K9

2006 MLB CHC: 19.1IP/ 4GS/ 9.31era/ 1.97WHIP/ 6.46BB9/ 1.14HR9/ 7.99K9

He’s done this for two seasons now. His 135K are leading the Pacific Coast League. When Hill is in the majors for some reason he completely changes his attitude towards pitching. In the minors he dares guys to hit his best stuff. In the majors he becomes a nibbler trying to pitch on the edges of the plate. As soon as someone clues him in that it is okay to let it loose in the majors he’s going to have success.

Hill has an unhittable 12-to-6 curveball. That combined with a low 90's fastball that he's learned to control (he attributes it to greater mental focus, the coaches say he cleaned up his delivery - whatever, as long as he has, right?) His change-up is constantly improving. And he's a lefty, which guarantees the opportunity will be there. Like I said he's 26 so the time is now. The Cubs should give Hill the chance to finish the season in the majors. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and the Cubs stink and have nothing to lose. It may take him a few starts to find himself so be patient. I could make you a long list of starters that stunk in their first few outings in the majors.

Shin-SooChoo OF Indians

You can call him Big League Choo. Choo, whom the Indians acquired in the Ben Broussard trade, will start in right field against right-handers. Casey Blake will play first against right-handers. Choo doesn’t have amazing power but he seems to be developing adequate power. Adequate power with his ability to get on base, his good speed and very good base stealing ability should make him a very valuable fantasy player. If he’s available grab him. The Mariners only gave him 18 at-bats in the majors.

2006 AAA Tacoma: 375AB/ 70R/ 121H/ 21dbls/ 3tpls/ 13HR/ 48RBI/ 26SB/ 4CS/ .323/.393/.499

The only downside I can see is his lack of experience. The Indians are another team without much to lose. The team is hoping that Choo will allow them to move Grady Sizemore down a bit in the order. Sizemore owners will hate hearing that as it will likely cut into his stolen base totals. Jhonny Peralta owners can be happy that Mark Shapiro didn’t get his first choice for Broussard, SS Erick Aybar.

My bonus nugget for reading this far is Joe Inglett. The man has no real power or base stealing ability. He’s a destitute man’s version of Wade Boggs. He can hit for average and is pretty fair at getting on base. He has a minor league career line of .303/.379/.419.

2006 AA Akron: 64AB/ 20R/ 33H/ 9dbls/ 3HR/ 9RBI/ 7SB/ 3CS/ 11BB/ 4SO .516/.587/.767

2006 AAA Buffalo: 157AB/ 21R/ 47H/ 7dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 13RBI/ 3SB/ 2CS 13BB/ 24SO

.299/.358/.389

2006 MLB CLE: 46AB/ 8R/ 15H/ 2dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 6RBI/ 1SB/ 0CS/ 4BB/ 8SO .326/.380/.522

The Indians are looking for a spark and Inglett is providing it right now. The Indians see him as a future utility infielder but with Ronnie Belliard nursing his hamstring injury Inglett is getting an opportunity to prove he can handle full-time responsibility.

Last Week Revisited

Last week Mark looked at Stephen Drew and Jason Windsor. Jason Windsor blew his rotation opportunity by allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs in just 2 innings. Windsor was sent back to the minors and replaced on the roster by LHP Randy Keisler. Windsor still has a future but the A’s are in a dog fight for the AL West and they can’t afford to develop pitchers right now.

Stephen Drew is probably making Craig Counsel the Arizona version of Wally Pip. Thus far Drew is hitting .302/.348/.512 in 43 at-bats. If you didn’t pick him up it’s too late now.

Burning Up the Bases written for Sportsblurb.com

Burning Up the Bases

By Jon Williams

08/07/06

Every fantasy baseball owner has a need for speed. Baseball’s base stealers have always been a precious commodity, and they have grown even more precious with the proliferation of the so-called Moneyball mindset. I do think we’re about to see a return to a more exciting brand of baseball. The vast majority of baseball teams – especially the bad ones – seem to annually attempt to mimic the characteristics of the best teams. This year, one of the better teams is without a doubt the New York Mets. And the Mets, as you may know or can guess by my clever lead in, use the stolen base as a key part of their offense.

What you as a fantasy owner must do is spot the stolen base talent being underutilized by teams that might use a similar style of offense in 2007. This week, I’m going to give you the key players on the three teams I can see giving the stolen base a bigger part in their game plans next year. Am I a great guy or what?

A little less running into walls and a little more running on the basepaths would do wonders for Aaron Rowand's fantasy owners...

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Aaron Rowand

2) Michael Bourne

3) Shane Victorino

He has not shown it this season, but Aaron Rowand can steal bases. He is not a blazing fast, Carl Crawford-type, but he has displayed the ability to take bases at a good percentage. The Phillies are almost guaranteed to have a new manager in 2007, and whoever is running the show next year would be wise to use some of the speed he will have on his roster, as well as utilize the base-stealing ability of almost everyone on the projected 2007 Major League roster. If that turns out to indeed be the case, Rowand could easily be a 20/20 guy in 2007.

Michael Bourn is the next home grown Philadelphia star. At the University of Houston, Bourn honed his ability to hit for average, get on base, and steal bases. As the 2003 fourth round pick of the Phillies little has changed. With Bobby Abreu traded to the Yankees, and Pat Burrell rumored to be following him in the off-season, the opportunity will be there for Bourn to claim a spot in the outfield in 2007. Bourn has a batting line of .288/.388/.396 in the minors and would be a very dynamic #2 hitter behind star shortstop Jimmy Rollins and might even push Rollins to the #2 spot. If Bourn makes the team and does what he has shown the ability to do, the Phillies will be a very exciting team to watch.

He may not be as flashy as Michael Bourn, but Shane Victorino has probably already earned a spot on the 2007 major league roster of the Phillies. His .310/.377/.534 showing at Triple-A Scranton has already earned him a call-up to fill the spot vacated by Bobby Abreu. He’s off to a respectable .267/.330/.424 start in 191 Major League at-bats this season. He has only stolen two bases without being caught but could easily steal 20 bases if given the opportunity.

Kansas City Royals

1) Alex Gordon

2) Joey Gathright

3) Esteban German

The Kansas City Royals have a much brighter future than most believe. Their minor league system may not be deep at the moment but they have a few guys that project as the heart of the order for the next decade. Next year, the fantasy baseball magazines will tell you all you need to know about Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, and Justin Huber. But the star of the Kansas City system by far will be third baseman Alex Gordon. The former Nebraska star has been compared to Chipper Jones with his beautiful swing and his projecting to hit for both power and average. Gordon already shows solid plate discipline, and many believe he should be in the Majors already. As of this writing, he is at Double-A Wichita, batting .316/.416/.559 with 20 home runs in just 383 at-bats. I know what you’re wondering, though – can he steal bases? He presently has 20 stolen bases and has been caught just three times. Gordon is the infield version of Carlos Beltran – yes, he is really that good.

Joey Gathright is not a great hitter; he can, however, use his speed and slap-hitting ability to hit for a respectable average, as he has shown he can do in the minors. He’s hit .316 in over 1,200 minor league at-bats with a .390 on-base percentage. Most importantly, the man is blazing fast. He has stolen 165 bases and been caught stealing 50 times in his Minor League career. That’s just over 40 stolen bases for every season spent in the minors, and he has made spent some time in the Majors just wasting away on the bench or he might have stolen even more.

I really hope that the Royals replace manager Bob Boone, as he has made one of the best performers on his team almost irrelevant. This season, 26-year-old Esteban German has batted .321/.430/.378, but cannot seem to get at-bats ahead of 36-year-old Mark Grudzielanek (.286/.325/.394 in 388 at-bats). A team like the Royals needs to give at-bats to the players that can play a part in the future of the team, rather than ancient mediocrities that will be here on the roster for one season at the most. German has the speed and the know-how to steal 30 to 40 bases. All he needs is an opportunity.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Chris Duffy

2) Nate McLouth

3) Jason Bay

Chris Duffy was supposed to be the starting center fielder for the Pirates in 2006. He lost the opportunity by hitting just .230/.288/.344 in 61 spring training at-bats. Duffy did not respond well to the May demotion and refused the assignment for almost a month. He did finally report and got to work on the things lacking in his game. At Triple-A Indianapolis, Duffy has been pretty impressive in 116 at-bats with a .349/.415/.509 batting line with 13 stolen bases and he has been caught just three times. Duffy was recalled after the Craig Wilson trade and has not done much yet, but the Pirates seem to have more faith this time around. Duffy has a career minor league line of .299/.354/.415; if he could come close to that in the Majors, 25-30 stolen bases a season is a distinct possibility.

Nate McLouth is similar to Duffy, but has better speed, slightly better power, and is two years younger at just 24-years-old. McLouth has spent the entire 2006 season in the Majors and should be in line for the starting right field job in 2007 when Jeromy Burnitz finally departs. For the season, McLouth is batting just .228/.292/.360 in a sporadic 250 at-bats as an occasional starter and defensive replacement. McLouth still has the spark that won him most exciting player votes in the minors. In a full season of at-bats, McLouth could steal 40 bases by managing just a league average on-base percentage.

He will not come cheap but Jason Bay is a great base stealer. In the Majors, Bay has attempted just 36 steals and been caught just eight times. In the Minors, Bay was a 30-40 steal guy. That ability is still there; it just needs to be tapped. By increasing his stolen base attempts, Bay could become the most valuable fantasy outfielder in almost any style league. For the Pirates, something as simple as a change in managerial philosophy could change them from one of the more boring offensive teams in the league to one of the most exciting. The Pirates want desperately to be the Oakland Athletics but they just don’t have the personnel and do not seem to grasp how to acquire it. I’m sure Billy Beane wouldn’t share this with the Pirates but I will – the secret of Moneyball was not acquiring on-base specialists; it was making the best use of the players available to you. The Pirates have speedy defensive slap hitters; design the offense around them and it might actually work for both the Pirates and fantasy owners everywhere.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

No License Is Required to Run a Fantasy League

By ALAN SCHWARZ
Published: August 9, 2006

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, the Internet arm of Major League Baseball, had a major setback yesterday in its attempt to regulate the growing fantasy baseball industry when a federal judge ruled that companies do not need licenses to operate such leagues.

A St. Louis company that runs fantasy leagues, CBC Distribution and Marketing Inc., had sued Major League Baseball Advanced Media, saying that the players’ names and performance statistics were in the public domain.

Four weeks before the trial was set to begin, United States District Court Judge Mary Ann Medler upheld CBC’s argument in a 49-page summary judgment. She rejected baseball’s claim that the use of the players’ names in commercial fantasy leagues violated their rights of publicity. She also ruled that even if CBC’s repetition of purely factual information had violated those rights, it was was trumped by the United States Constitution.

“The players’ right of publicity,” she wrote, “must give way to CBC’s First Amendment right to freedom of expression.”

According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, more than 15 million people spend about $1.5 billion annually to play fantasy sports — games in which fans draft and run their own teams of real-life players. Virtually all of them use an outside service like CBC to keep track of rosters, players’ statistics, trades and more.

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, in addition to owning the electronic rights to team logos and video clips, bought the Internet and wireless rights to the players’ images and names from the Major League Baseball Players Association in January 2005 for $50 million. It licenses large content packages to companies like Yahoo and CBS Sportsline for deals worth approximately $2 million apiece and had sought to regulate the use of players’ names and personas by the hundreds of smaller operations like CBC that use only names and statistics.

“Using basic factual information — as distinguished from using a player’s name to endorse a product — does not violate the right of publicity,” said Rudy Telscher, a lawyer representing CBC. “This was just baseball trying — and I don’t blame them — to seize this growing area and make money on it.”

Officials from Major League Baseball Advanced Media could not be reached yesterday for comment on whether the company would appeal to the Eighth Circuit Court, a process that would take about another year. Jim Gallagher, a baseball spokesman, told The Associated Press, “We need to talk to our partners, the Major League Baseball Players Association, before we have anything more to say.”

This Week In Fantasy Sports (Football and Baseball)

Anthony Reyes Baseball Card

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6652

John Turvey of Fanball.com discusses the joys and pains of preparing for Fantasy Football Season. Then John explores what happens when you give your target audience an early chance to explore your findings.

They flipped to the appropriate page, found my team (seventh pick in a 10-team draft) and immediately called into question my selection of Domanick Davis in round two (14th overall).

They pointed out that his line blows—which is true for
pass-blocking, I countered, but they effectively employ the same zone-blocking scheme Gary Kubiak used in Denver and have produced solid numbers for Dom in the past.

They noted that he's been nicked up throughout his career—again, a valid concern, but one I believe can be insured by grabbing his handcuff (like Davis owners did with Jonathan Wells did last year).

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6629

Court E. Mann of Fantasy Football Weekly discusses the football annuals and the disappearance of the Fantasy Football Bust.


At Fanball, we publish three preseason magazines under our Fantasy Football Weekly moniker in

June, July, and August. In both the June Annual and the August Draft Issue, we devote an entire feature to 15 reliable fantasy starters from the previous season that we slap the Bust label on. In the July Just Cheat Sheets issue, each of our editors is forced to choose one prominent name at each position as their Bust, and that player must be ranked in the top 15 at that position.

http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=6615

Jay Powell shares his semi-unique draft strategies. I think he may be on to something.

In the third round, I added wide receiver Roy Williams, whom I expect to thrive in the offense that Mike Martz is installing in Motown. At the time I picked Williams, the list of available running backs included Warrick Dunn, Reuben Droughns, and Carnell Williams. Fans of the "Do the Opposite" approach should also know that Chargers tight end Antonio Gates was also available.

http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.6664

The guys at Fanball.com have been busy with team previews. Each one includes Notable Offseason Moves, Position Battles and Keep an Eye On blurbs. Check them out starting with this one on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Griffin has more name value, but Dee Brown appears to have the inside track to earning the No. 2 spot on the depth chart should Holmes retire. Brown has impressed the coaches during the offseason workouts and will challenge Griffin for the role during training camp. The Chiefs signed Kyle Turley to compete with Jordan Black for the starting right tackle job. Turley has battled back problems over the last few seasons. He also allegedly threatened to kill former Rams head coach Mike Martz, so Edwards might want to consider entering the witness protection program if he has to cut Turley this summer.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/tips.php

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2006/tips_projecting_wins.php

Bob Hoyng tries his hand at creating a projection system for WHIP. I haven’t played with it yet but he could have something useful here.

My main thought here (looking at this situation from a fantasy baseball manager’s point of view) was to use this information to find pitchers whose bad luck over the last few years had deflated their value to the point where they were bargains. To do this I would need one formula to project ERA, and another formula to project WHIP. I could then take a pitcher’s 3 year averages in the component numbers (BB, K, HR and IP) and find the guys that showed a large variance between actual, and projected ERA/WHIP both, to identify the over and undervalued pitchers.

Bob then goes on to predicting wins for pitchers. I’ve actually tried this and it isn’t easy. Bob has a grasp on the concept, give it a look and decide if it works for you.

Projecting the number of games a team is going to win during the course of the upcoming year is definitely not to the point that it’s an exact science. We can try to use tools such as the expected lineup’s Runs Created/27 outs or other such methods to project the runs the team will score. We can look at what type of era we expect the team to put up as a whole as well, and apply the Pythagorean Expectation formula to try and estimate the team’s wins. It’s kind of like predicting the weather - it may not be 100% but it’s the best that we’ve got.

My interest in this article is in explaining how we can extend this approach to predicting pitchers. And more importantly to try and project the wins for ALL pitchers - not just starting pitchers. In order to determine the winning percentage for a team from the Pythagorean Expectation formula we need two numbers - runs scored and runs against. In projecting the wins for pitchers we need one extra number - the number of opportunities (decisions) that we expect the pitcher to receive. While there can certainly be progress made from the point that this article will take us, the general approach that I will lay out here is a good start to estimating the number of decisions any pitcher will receive. Before we get into the detailed examination of predicting opportunities though, let’s take a look at the first two numbers - runs scored and runs agains

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/sleepers.php

Adam Lewis has Fantasy Baseball Cafe’s Sleeper of the Week. He believes this week’s sleeper could very well end the year in a closer role. Names have been redacted for entertainment purposes.

At the moment, ****** is the ****** closer, but look for ****** to take it from him in the second half. It has been said that ****** gets the ugliest saves of any closer. ****** never seems to have a 1-2-3 inning, nor does he have that ‘out’ pitch closers need. ****** is also now suffering from elbow tendonitis, which sometimes is hard to shake. With ****** being injured, and journeymen and castoffs in the bullpen, look for ****** to get his fair share of opportunities. The ****** have the worst bullpen in the league, so ****** will get his chances to rise above. For now, keep an eye on the closing situation and keep your eyes on this rising 22 year old hurler.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlIGHpWY0vmOeCiXC.dV1KkRvLYF?slug=jp-mauer062606&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Jeff Passan tells us why it’s good to be Joe Mauer.

Though being good might give Mauer the utmost pleasure. Because it proves, once and for all, that the Twins weren't erring solely on the side of spendthrifts when they chose Mauer with the first pick ahead of Mark Prior, and that Mauer wasn't crazy for leaving behind a scholarship to play quarterback at Florida State to sign with the Twins.

http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=be-noise_062206&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&league=fantasy/nfl

Brad Evans explains why its all about the money in the NFL and gives us a few names we can count on to provide a performance worth major ducats.

For fantasy football aficionados, knowing who's playing for a big payday is vital info. For example, last year Ladanian Tomlinson was a unanimous No. 1 pick for many owners. However, LT drafters were kicking themselves by season's end for not picking Shaun Alexander. The popular second fiddle bulldozed his way to the top of the rankings, totaling a staggering 27 rushing touchdowns. His record-breaking campaign and consistency – he scored at least once in 14 of 16 games and had 11 100-yard rushing performances – were a cornerstone on many championship rosters. Why did Alexander reach unprecedented heights? He was looking to cash in.

http://rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=22869

Aaron Gleeman gives us the scoop on a trade as its about to happen and some tidbits from around baseball.

Speaking of rumors, things appear to be heating up on the Miguel Tejada front. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Tejada may have been linked to Jason Grimsley’s now-infamous affidavit. Grimsley and Tejada played together for parts of two seasons in Baltimore, so the media attention on the story is sure to explode within the next couple days.

Meanwhile, the newspaper also quoted sources within the Orioles organization as saying that the team may be “ready to deal their starting shortstop before the July 31 trade deadline.” Team officials indicated last week that they were “unlikely” to deal Tejada, but even then said they’d listen to offers.

http://www.baseballnotebook.com/essay.asp?esource=e_062106.asp&topt=Trading%20-%20The%20Art%20of%20Selling%20Low

David Luciani of Baseball Notebook expounds on the Art of Selling Low. Its interesting stuff, as always the guys at Baseball Notebook go a little bit against the grain to get at the truth of things.

Everyone knows the stock trading concept that dictates that we should "buy low, sell high." It makes sense and there's no need to prove here that the trader who successfully does this, in stocks or in fantasy baseball, will be successful. When fantasy baseball was relatively new, or at least spreading in popularity around North America, some of the early official Rotisserie materials rightly advocated the concept of "trade them while they're hot and get them while they're not." The idea which helped many a fantasy owner in the mid 1980s and even into the early 1990s was that certain players have a track record and if they start slow, they can easily be acquired. Conversely, many players are notoriously slow starters and the intelligent fantasy GM can go out and pick them up relatively cheap.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/06/war_stories.php

Bob Klapisch explains why journalists and teams just can’t get along any longer. With the Jay Mariotti and Ozzie Guillen story raging maybe Bob can come up with a solution better than sensitivity training. While you’re at it check out my Sportsblurb.com article on that very topic.

Younger reporters who sometimes complain that today's stars, like Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran, have nothing interesting to say, obviously don't know what it's like when the players declare war on the press.

Still, the newcomers have a point about the thick wall of clichés. Where did all this new millennium caution come from? I asked Jeter that very question recently, wondering why he affects that Dawn of the Dead expression whenever the camera goes on. His answer was surprisingly candid.

"It's you guys," Jeter said, nodding at a group of reporters standing around the clubhouse. "Because any time you do something you guys write about it, absolutely anything. You can't really be as loose as you want to be."

http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=NFL&storyid=22866

Gregg Rosenthal examines the NFL East and North and declares that the sleeping Lions are being roused by Mike Martz and his new offense.

Jon Kitna has reportedly opened up a big lead in the battle to be the team’s starting quarterback. Dan Orlovsky may be passing Josh McCown to be the backup. … The running back depth chart is odd after Kevin Jones. Arlen Harris is reportedly second, ahead of mainstays Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner. I try not to get carried away with minicamp depth charts, if they even exist. Look for Bryson and rookie Brian Calhoun to have roles behind Kevin Jones once the season starts. For now, Jones owners may want to wait to handcuff him. Martz wants Jones to play on third downs and near the goal line, which could make him a great RB2.

http://longgandhi.com/061706.html

Long Gandhi looks at the future of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation.

Anyway, I thought I had written about a month ago that I didn't think Janssen would be long for the Blue Jay rotation because he didn't fool hitters with his stuff. More precisely, that hitters didn't swing and miss. He got strikes primarily by getting fouls and calls. That works in the short term, but eventually hitters will get his timing and start hitting him... hard. Just looking at his last two outings, against the Orioles and Marlins of all teams, that appears to be happening now. Put another way, he's given up at least 4 earned runs in five of eleven starts. Take out his two starts against the Angels, which came fairly early in his major league tenure, and his ERA is 6.24 and WHIP is 1.567. How's his style gonna play against the division rival Yankees and Red Sox against whom he's yet to face? My guess is not well. Sure, his K/BB rate is nice, but so was Josh Towers and we see how well that has turned out. Casey Janssen's time in the Blue Jay rotation will be coming to a close very soon.

http://www.rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=gordon&name=F20060626135043

Jeff Gordon goes deep into This Week In Baseball.

Russ Ortiz, SP, Orioles: ... Baltimore hopes to turn Ortiz around after his washout in Arizona. As a D'Back, Ortiz was 5-11 with a 6.89 ERA in 2005 and 0-5 with a 7.54 ERA this season. It doesn't get much worse than that.

But he had a fruitful working relationship with Leo Mazzone in Atlanta, so the O's figure this was worth a shot. "I think Leo is always up for a challenge," Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo said. "He's usually up for getting someone back on track. It seems like his track record is he's able to do that."

http://www.sportsblurb.com/baseball/stock.asp

My article for Sportsblurb.com.

Guillen might have a point if Mariotti was a beat writer, but he is not. Mariotti is a columnist that has the job we all wish we did. He goes to the NBA finals and flies from there to the next big event and from there to the next. Mariotti, in a rather wussy fashion, claims that the Chicago White Sox clubhouse is too dangerous a place for him to risk showing up. Of course, I am sure if reporters were being beat up after games we would have heard about it by now.

EA Sports Head Coach - the Commercial

EA Head Coach Game


Anyone out there play video games? I'm interested in this one. Thanks to Joe Bryant of FantasyFootballGuys for pointing out the link in his free newsletter.

A Fantasy Baseball Update

Justin Huber


Casey Kotchman who has been putting a hurting on some fantasy teams this year revealed last night that he's been dealing with the effects of mononucleosis for the last seven months. The disease can sap your strength and I guess thats what Casey wants us to blame for his horrible stats thus far. I'm not actually buying it but if it helps you deal him to a rebuilding team its good information.

Richie Sexson is another first baseman off to an awful start. I have no doubt Sexson will come around but it'll have to wait until he recovers from the bruised right heel and slight ankle sprain he suffered in Wednesday's game. He shouldn't miss too much time with the problem but he'll be sitting on the bench and creating a hole in your lineup for a few days, which might be a welcome change from his daily ofers.

The world of closers is shifting once again. The latest? Eddie Guardado has been at least temporarily removed from his closer position. Mike Hargrove has promised a closer by committee situation but look for J.J. Putz to get the bulk of the chances. Rafael Soriano is also likely to win a few. Soriano is probably the better long term bet based purely on talent but if Putz continues to pitch well in the closer role he might just hold it.

Royals Designated Hitter Mike Sweeney is hitting the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back. Supposedly it isn't the same disk that ruined last season (as if that mattered). He could be gone a while, I'm guessing at least six weeks but its hard to tell with Sweeney. The good news for fantasy owners and Royals fans alike is the call up of Justin Huber. Huber will be just the first in a trio of call-ups that should dramatically change the fortunes of the Royals despite the inept managing of Allard Baird. Huber is pretty similar to a younger and healthy Mike Sweeney. You should pick him up if you have a place for him or if you just lost Sweeney.

The Brewers have lost starter Tomo Ohka for at least a month and possibly the season with a tear in his rotator cuff. The Brew Crew is expected to call up Dana Eveland who has been dominating AAA. He has a .75 era in six starts. Eveland seems ready and probably should have made the team out of spring training but hey, things happen. If Eveland gets the call you want him.

The Official 2006 All Super Fantasy Sleeper Team

Nightmare Sleepers


Just so we're all on the same page this is my super sleeper team for 2006. I define a sleeper as a player that for various reasons will cost signicantly less or be drafted much later than their projected value would seem to suggest. I would not suggest buying this entire team although I think anyone of these players will return much more value than you'll pay.

C - Miguel Oliva Marlins
C - Gerald Laird Rangers
1B - Jason Stokes Marlins
3B - Terry Tiffee Twins
CR - Adrian Gonzalez Padres
2B - Bobby Hill Padres
SS - J.J. Hardy Brewers
MI - Alberto Callaspo Diamondbacks
OF - Nathan McLouth Pirates
OF - John Rodriguez Cardinals
OF - Rondell White Twins
OF - Victor Diaz Mets
OF - Corey Hart Brewers
Utl - Kaz Matsui Mets
SP - Adam Wainwright Cardinals
SP - Rich Hill Cubs
SP - Scott Olson Marlins
SP - Dustin Nippert Diamondbacks
SP - Scott Baker Twins
SP - Edwin Jackson Devil Rays
SP - Shawn Estes Padres
RP - Shinji Mori Devil Rays
RP - Todd Coffey Reds
RP - Travis Bowyer Marlins