Crooked Pitch Mock Draft

Knox over at Crooked Pitch has put together a slow mock draft. What is unique about this mock draft is that all the participants required to explain their pick and the strategy behind it as they go. I think this will be very interesting to follow --especially with quality of the participants. Jason Collette (@jasoncollette), Paul Sporer (@sporer ) and Knox Bardeen (@crookedpitch) are a few of my favorite fantasy baseball analysts.

Check out the Crooked Pitch Slow Mock Draft.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Winning Takes More Than Player Knowledge

Todd Zola, one of my favorite number crunchers, posted an article at the Mastersball Blog wherein he questioned his own ability to contend every time against the biggest fantasy baseball sharks. Todd explains his weakness as a lack of preparation.

...By preparation, I am not talking about having rankings and depth charts average draft positions. I am not talking about reading about each player, deciding in a vacuum if they are a breakout or bust candidate. I am not talking about knowing the next-in-line closers for each team. What I am talking about takes the aforementioned information to the next level and best might be describes as fantasy baseball game theory...

He goes on to describe the process by which he hopes to fill this void in his gamesmanship. Namely by doing as many mock drafts as possible. While Todd is right about needing to intimately know the player pool and have the ability to adapt to any draft scenario, I'm not sure he's right about how to get to the level he hopes to achieve.

Mock Drafts are a fine form of practice and participating in them will make you a better drafter. But what you learn from this is not really how to be a better shark but how to react to what other owners do. I think Todd knows this better than he thinks he does. It is a fine line, but what Todd really needs (in my own humble opinion of course) is to learn to draft the team he needs despite anything that his opponents might do.

Here is the difference:

Todd wants to be better at picking between player M and player J when the perfect player would have been player A who was taken just before Todd's pick.

What Todd needs to be better at is knowing that he needs quantity A to win and that it doesn't actually matter which player he takes so long as it adds up to quantity A in the end. In other words, rather than focus on better player selection as a one by one process over and over again, what he should be doing is studying the many different ways to make 23 selections add up to quantity A.

Relax your focus on each player and concentrate on the team as a whole.

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Emily Stecher Survey Part Two

Emily Stecher needs our help one more time. Help her out and you could win a $50 Visa Gift card.

Hi Everyone,

Thank you so much for participating in my first survey. The results raised more questions than I could have imagined. I have condensed those questions into a few very important ones and I am hoping that you all can take a few minutes to fill out this follow up survey.

The survey will take approximately 5-10 minutes to complete. Please follow the instructions and answer all of the questions to the best of your ability. Do not consult any outside sources. All responses will remain completely anonymous and will only be used for the purposes of this study. Please finish the whole survey in one sitting as you will not be allowed to re-enter the survey to update or change your responses.

All participants will be eligible to win a additional $50 Visa Gift Card upon completion of the survey. On January 20th I will be drawing two names of people who have completed both surveys. At the end of this survey, please be sure to leave your e-mail address. Your e-mail address will not be linked to your responses to ensure anonymity.

Thank you in advance for your participation.

Emily Stecher

LINK: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=HbcOFY3TC1EJ80rjIa2sEA_3d_3d

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Fantasy Phenoms Mock Draft

I want to thank Jason Sarney of Fantasy Phenoms for inviting me to participate in the second of their series of mock drafts. The league details are the standard 12-team mixed 5x5, rotisserie format. The draft was a serpentine 23-round session, with two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a shortstop, a third baseman, a middle infielder, a corner infielder, a utility player, five outfielders, and a staff of nine pitchers.

I have been using a slightly modified form of the projections that come with the Diamond Draft Fantasy Baseball Software, but I did not have time to load them into the Mock Draft Central system before the draft. Therefore, I had to do my best with the rankings they provided. You can be the judge.

I enter every re-draft league (and thus all mock drafts) with the same simple strategy. I try to draft players with upside potential in every round especially pitchers. I tend to avoid players I see as in decline unless they come at a major discount. I usually speculate on saves in the end game unless someone good falls to me. In addition, I do not pay much attention to position scarcity except at the catcher position. This strategy has worked for me repeatedly, but this was some other plan.

R1 P2 Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA

The first round held no real surprises. I am a just a bit impressed that Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) has maintained his first round status. His 12.53 ADP according to Mock Draft Central is a sign that no one will be surprised to see Holliday provide a typical performance as an Oakland Athletic. I have taken Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) first overall in more than one mock draft already. I think his combination of 30 homerun/50 stolen base potential is very tough to ignore, especially when it comes from a shortstop.

R2 P11 Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN

I love that Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) was the first pitcher drafted. I think he deserves the position and this comes from someone who loves Johan Santana (LHP, NYN) as much as ever. However, Lincecum’s ADP has him going almost a round later than Santana, so this is a little early. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) has 30/30 potential but 25/25 is a much better bet. Somehow, despite ignoring position scarcity, I have already built a very strong middle infield.

R3 P2 Fielder, Prince 1B MIL

In retrospect, I should have taken Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) in this spot. I like Prince Fielder (1B, MIL) and I think he will have another productive season bit I have been targeting Matt Kemp because I see him having first round value. I should have known he would not be around for my next pick. Choosing Prince also ensured that I would not have an elite outfielder. Carl Crawford (OF, TAM) would have been another good choice. He lost some status due to his injury-plagued season but I expect him to be back on top of his game this season. With first base being deep, I could have waited a while and still drafted a quality corner.

R4 P11 Victorino, Shane OF PHI

I was a little shocked to see Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, BOS) go this soon. His present ADP has him going in the early sixth round. With the second half slump Ellsbury experienced I did not expect to see anyone in a rush to draft him. Shane Victorino (OF, PHI) was the best outfielder on the board. I had to select him if I wanted to have a half-decent outfield I had to start filling it. Victorino is just a notch below elite level but provides power and steals in bunches.

R5 P2 Hart, Corey OF MIL

Had I been on my game I probably would have targeted one of the elite catchers at this point. This round sees the first closer come off the board when Chris Lynch selects Jon Papelbon (RHP, BOS).

R6 P11 Ordonez, Magglio OF DET

A small closer run ensues but fortunately, I am not so out of sorts as to follow suit. I am attempting to make up for not having an elite outfielder by drafting a strong and deep one. Magglio Ordonez (OF, DET) is an old favorite. He does not have his former speed and his power is fading but he still hits for a strong average and enough power to stay productive.

R7 P2 Uggla, Dan 2B FLA

At this point I decide that since the outfielders I like are going fast that I’m going to select the best middle infielders I can. Now that I am thinking more clearly I wish I had taken Geovany Soto (C, CHC). Nevertheless, the team I have this point is still a strong one. Dan Uggla (2B, MIA) is good for 30 homeruns.

R8 P11 Hardy, J.J. SS MIL

Some experts seem to have a problem with J.J. Hardy’s (SS, MIL) streakiness. This might matter a little in head-to-head leagues, but in reality, this is a silly argument against him in most leagues. Fantasy Baseball is a marathon you do not judge a player by a few cold streaks or even a few hot ones. Darryl Strawberry (OF, Retired) was streaky, so was Reggie Jackson (OF, also retired). Without his famous end of the season hot streak in 2008, we would all have Manny Ramirez (OF, Free Agent) outside of our top 25 outfielders. Hardy’s 118.7 ADP which places him well behind one year wonders like Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) and Stephen Drew (SS, ARI) and declining veterans like Miguel Tejada (SS, HOU) and Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) is a travesty of fantasy baseball justice (I just made it up).

R9 P2 Rivera, Mariano RP NYY

Even non-closer people have limits. I could not allow the best closer of all time to remain on the market for another round. Mariano Rivera (RHP, NYY) still displays every skill you want to see in a closer candidate. He is as safe a closer pick as can be made. I always find it easier to take closers in expert leagues and other tough leagues because everyone waits on closers and drafting the best ones in the middle rounds of the draft is tolerable to me. This team does not resemble my typical ones at all.

R10 P11 Lester, Jon SP BOS

I expect Jon Lester (LHP, BOS) to move into the top tier of starters this season. He has the magic combination of a good strikeout rate, groundball rate, and decent control that lies in the heart of every dominate starter. I am shocked by the selection of Carlos Marmol (RHP, CHC) ahead of so many established closers. Marmol will compete with Kevin Gregg (RHP, CHC) and Jeff Samardzija (RHP, CHC) for the role. Gregg of course was the Florida closer for the last two years and was acquired by trade earlier in the offseason. Samardzija is just the young fireballer that Lou Piniella fell in love with last season. Marmol is not even close to a lock so selecting him at this point takes a giant leap of faith.

R11 P2 Chamberlain, Joba RP NYY

If Joba Chamberlain (RHP, NYY) can stay healthy (and in the Yankees rotation), he has a chance to be as valuable as any pitcher in baseball. I really like the odds that he can do it. If I can draft Lester and Chamberlain in my real leagues this spring, I will be a very happy man. However, I will not hold my breath expecting that to happen.

R12 P11 Doumit, Ryan C PIT

In a shallow league like this, you need to get quality at the catcher position. Ryan Doumit fits the bill. I like the Adam Jones (OF, BAL) pick. I expect him to take a real step up this season. The closers are coming off the board, which does not bother me at all.

R13 P2 Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA

The last time Adrian Beltre (3B, SEA) was in a walk year, he blasted 40 homeruns. Even if he does not step up quite like that again, I still love having Beltre in a walk year. Matt Wieters (C, BAL), the catching prospect that everybody wants went in this round. Is it just a coincidence that David Price (RHP,TAM), the pitching prospect that everyone wants, also went in this round? Kevin Slowey (RHP, MIN) went with the third pick of the round and could be a very nice bargain.

R14 P11 Byrnes, Eric OF ARI

I did not want to be left with the dregs of the outfield so I grabbed Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) here. If healthy, I expect him to bounce back with 15-20 homeruns and 25-30 stolen bases, which is a nice value for this round.

R15 P2 Johnson, Josh SP FLA

Josh Johnson (RHP, FLA) had a very strong second half after returning from Tommy John Elbow Surgery. He should continue to grow stronger this season.

R16 P11 Lowe, Derek SP ATL

The Atlanta Braves were willing to overpay because Derek Lowe (RHP, ATL) is as steady and durable starter as there is in the majors. He has never been on the disabled list. How many veteran starting pitchers in the majors can make that claim?

R17 P2 Scherzer, Max RP ARI

I drafted another great arm with upside this round. Max Scherzer (RHP, ARI) has an incredible ability to incur strikeouts. He should excel as either a starter or a closer. I tend to believe he will stick in the rotation but you never can tell.

R18 P11 Saltalamaccia, J C TEX

This is probably the riskiest pick I made. Jarrod Saltalamaccia (C, TEX) does not have a guaranteed starting job. I expect that he will and based on his winter league performance I think the Rangers will have a hard time keeping him out of the lineup now that Gerald Laird (C, DET) has been traded to the Detroit Tigers.

R19 P2 Duchscherer, J SP OAK

When healthy, Justin Duchscherer (RHP, OAK) is one of the most effective pitchers in baseball. For most of the 2008 season Duchscherer was one of the American League leaders in ERA. He ended last season badly due to a hip ailment but he expects to be ready to start on Opening Day.

R20 P11 Giambi, Jason 1B OAK

No, Jason Giambi (1B, TB) is not the player he was ten years ago, but who is? He still draws walks in bunches and has the power to hit 30-35 homeruns. He is likely to ever bat .300 again but in the 20^th round I’ll take what I can get.

R21 P2 Hughes, Philip SP NYY

I know there were better bets available than Phil Hughes (RHP, NYY)who not only has to fight for a rotation spot but also against the expectations of fans that went from sky is the limit to “trade ‘em” in the space of one season. I expect him to make all of his doubters eat their words.

R22 P11 Ziegler, Brad RP OAK

I am confident that Joey Devine (RHP, OAK) is going to close for the Oakland Athletics. However, Brad Zeigler (RHP, OAK) held that job for a portion of last season and at this point in the draft, I am willing to take a few chances.

R23 P2 Church, Ryan OF NYM

For some reason, I ended up in auto-draft for the 23^rd round and rather than select J.D. Drew (OF, BOS) I was given Ryan Church (OF, NYM). Church is a solid player and if he can remain healthy and the regular starter in right field he will exceed his draft position in actual value.

C: R. Doumit, J. Saltalamaccia

1B/3B/CR: P. Fielder, A. Beltre, J. Giambi

2B/SS/MI: B. Phillips, H. Ramirez, D. Uggla

U: J.J. Hardy

OF: S. Victorino, C. Hart, M. Ordonez, E. Byrnes, R. Church

SP: J. Lester, J. Chamberlain, J. Johnson, D. Lowe, M. Scherzer, J. Duchscherer, P. Hughes

RP: M. Rivera, B. Zeigler

The result is teams that should hits lots of homeruns and steal tons of bases. The offense should be one of the better ones in every category with the possible exception of batting average. The pitching staff could not be loaded with more potential. It is that potential being reached that will make the difference between a good team and a great one.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Barry Bonds Clear of the Clear

If you want to see me angry just bring up Barry Bonds and imply that there is some proof he has done performance-enhancing drugs. Back in the days of my blog Bronx Pride (re-posted to my dormant Entertainment blog) I wrote an article criticizing the lack of real evidence in the case being built against him. And now it appears that not only was I right but Barry Bonds will be cleared of all charges.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=li-clear011409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

It could explain why Barry Bonds’ attorneys believe the grand jury questions to him were impossibly vague and why the focus of the BALCO case veered from prosecuting distributors of illegal anabolic steroids and money launderers to catching world-class athletes lying about drug use.

Taking the Clear – the star drug of the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative – was not a crime, according to expert testimony included in grand jury documents.

Not only was the performance-enhancing drug tetrahydrogestrinone (THG) not specifically banned when athletes squirted “The Clear” under their tongues to gain an edge, the testimony also indicates that the drug wasn’t categorized by the Justice Department as a steroid until January 2005, long after the drug laboratory had been shuttered.

Yahoo! Sports has examined sealed grand jury testimony given by drug-testing expert Dr. Donald Catlin in 2003 and BALCO lead investigator Jeff Novitzky in 2004. Both men testified that THG was not a steroid according to the federal criminal code. Furthermore, Novitzky testified that “there’s never been any studies to show whether or not THG does, in fact, enhance muscle growth.”

The judge in the Bonds perjury case lifted a protective order in November that had prevented about 30,000 pages of documents in the far-reaching BALCO case from becoming public. This is the first in a series of Yahoo! Sports stories that will broaden the understanding of the BALCO investigation, which has resulted in the prosecution of several athletes for perjury or lying to a federal agent and has cost taxpayers an estimated $55 million since the investigation began in 2003.

Bonds, baseball’s single-season and all-time home run king, faces 10 counts of perjury and one charge of obstruction of justice in what legal experts say is probably the final stage of the BALCO investigation. Bonds’ trial is scheduled to begin March 2 in San Francisco, and the deadline for his attorneys to file pretrial motions is Thursday. Bonds, who has been out of baseball since the end of the 2007 season, has pleaded not guilty and has steadfastly denied any wrongdoing.

Prior to the filing of charges, Bonds already was portrayed by some as a hulking personification of baseball’s steroid era, making him an ideal target for the government.

“If you’re going to topple a symbol of the evil of steroids, there’s no one better that you can put in the dock than Barry Bonds,” said Roger Abrams, a professor at the Northeastern University School of Law. “Knock him over and the kids will listen.”

Evidence that the Clear was legal and technically not a steroid until the Anabolic Steroids Act of 2004 took effect in January 2005 could emerge as central to Bonds’ defense, experts say. Perjury questions must be unambiguous to win a conviction, and the testimony of Catlin and Novitzky could establish that the government knew about ambiguity concerning the Clear before Bonds took the stand.

Experts say prosecutors might have intentionally asked Bonds what they knew to be ambiguous questions – never defining steroids or making a distinction between drugs that were illegal or merely banned by many major sports.

“This case has been presented as Barry Bonds lying about steroids,” said Christopher Cannon, a San Francisco defense attorney with extensive experience in federal perjury cases. “The government’s theory is that he was taking the Clear. If the government knows the Clear wasn’t a steroid – then when Barry said he wasn’t taking a steroid, he was telling the truth.”

The indictment cites questions posed to Bonds in the December 2003 grand jury hearing about whether he was getting the Clear or the Cream from his personal trainer, Greg Anderson, in December 2001. The ballplayer was also asked whether he was getting “the flaxseed oil or the Cream in 2000.”

The Cream, another creation of BALCO founder Victor Conte, was a 10 percent testosterone cream mixed with the masking agent epitestosterone. The drug was not meant to be anabolic, but to disguise the effect of anabolic drugs like the Clear from testers.

Prosecutor: “Let me be real clear about this. Did he [Anderson] ever give you anything that you knew to be a steroid? Did he ever give you a steroid?”

Bonds: “I don’t think Greg would do anything like that to me and jeopardize our friendship. I just don’t think he would do that.”

Prosecutor: “Well, when you say you don’t think he would do that, to your knowledge, I mean, did you ever take any steroids that he gave you?”

Bonds: “Not that I know of.”

“It’s reasonable to think that the person answering a question about steroids would think they were asking about an illegal steroid,” said Charles La Bella, a former U. S. attorney and chief of the criminal division for the Southern District of California who now practices criminal defense in San Diego.

“[A jury] wants unambiguous terms.”

More than two months after Bonds testified, the government dropped clues that it was aware that the Clear was legal – and not a steroid. Buried in the February 2004 BALCO indictment of Conte, the government charged that the Clear or THG lacked directions in its labeling and was a “‘designer steroid’ or ‘steroid-like derivative,’ which would provide ‘steroid-like’ effects without causing the athlete to test positive for steroids.”

The U.S. Attorney’s office in San Francisco declined to comment.

Conte wrote the following in an unpublished manuscript called “BALCO”: “There were actually two different species of The Clear from 2000 through 2003. The first was the anabolic steroid norbolethone, which was used successfully through the 2000 Sydney Olympics, helping Marion Jones win five medals that year, including three golds. It was only when I found out that the testers had identified strange metabolites in the urine samples of some of the athletes associated with BALCO at the Sydney Olympics that we moved on to the second designer steroid THG.”

Although norbolethone was illegal, no evidence has emerged to suggest the substance was given to Bonds or any other baseball players alleged to have received drugs through BALCO or Bonds’ trainer Greg Anderson. In an interview with Yahoo! Sports, Conte said that by January 2001 select BALCO athletes were receiving THG, and norbolethone had been shelved for good.

According to sources, the prosecution is expected to argue at trial it has proof that aside from the Clear and the Cream, Bonds took other banned steroids. The defense is likely to counter with chain-of custody and test admissibility arguments.

But prosecutors could have difficulty proving Bonds was lying when he said he didn’t recall getting the Clear or the Cream on earlier dates, but recalled receiving them on later dates. That much is apparent from the grand jury testimony of Catlin, the founder of the UCLA Olympic Laboratory, and the chemist credited with decoding THG. Novitzky, who spearheaded the entire BALCO investigation while working for the IRS, also testified about the Clear.

On Oct. 23, 2003, just a few weeks before Bonds testified, prosecutor Jeff Nedrow questioned Catlin before the grand jury.

Nedrow: “There is actually a list promulgated in the federal criminal code of several steroids which are outright prohibited. Is that correct?”

Catlin: “Yes.”

Nedrow: “Is THG on that list in the federal code?”

Catlin: “No.”

Two months later – after most of the 30 some athletes had testified – Novitzky addressed the grand jury. Nedrow asked him about Catlin’s response when asked whether the Clear, beyond being a substance banned by most sports, was “actually an anabolic steroid?”

Novitzky: “He said it was another matter when looking at federal criminal law and the problem that you run into there is there’s a certain amount of steroids that are listed under criminal law that say: Hey, these substances are definitely steroids. And then there’s a catchall phrase that says if it’s not one of these substances, then if you can say pharmacologically or chemically related to testosterone, which in this case THG is, and you also have to show that it enhances muscle growth in human beings.

“And that’s the problem that we’ve run into with THG and which Dr. Catlin testified to the grand jury, is that there’s never been any studies to show whether or not THG does, in fact, enhance muscle growth.”

If Novitzky’s understanding of the law is correct, the fact that no studies had been done on the substance meant that possessing or taking THG was not a crime. However, the FDA announced Oct. 28, 2003, that THG was “an unapproved new drug” and could not be “legally marketed without FDA approval.”

Major news organizations announced that the FDA had ruled THG an illegal steroid. But all the FDA had done was to rule that THG was not a dietary supplement and therefore could not be legally marketed without FDA approval.

Novitzky and Catlin had already testified that the testing on humans necessary to determine THG’s legal status had never been performed.

Catlin acknowledged in the grand jury that tests had been done only on baboons: “THG – well we are just beginning – we don’t know anything really about the kinetics and the time course and how long it lasts. We are waiting for the studies of the baboon to tell us some of that. But a baboon is not a man. It’s complex. We cannot give THG to a human being without FDA approval, which we would never get.”

THG was classified as an illegal steroid on Jan. 20, 2005, the date that the Anabolic Steroid Control Act of 2004 took effect. The Act eliminated the previous requirement to prove muscle growth and listed 59 specific substances instead of the previous 23 as anabolic steroids.

The new law closed the designer drug window exploited by Conte. But it was not retroactive and had no effect on the charges against anyone caught up in the probe. Conte served four months in prison beginning in December 2005 after pleading guilty to a single count of laundering $100 and steroid distribution. But as federal drug cases go, it was minor. Forty of the 42 counts against Conte were dismissed, and Anderson was the only other of the four accused co-conspirators sentenced to jail. BALCO vice president James Valente and track coach Remi Korchemny received probation.

Neither Conte nor Anderson was charged with distributing THG. In fact, nobody in the seven-year BALCO investigation has been charged with possession or trafficking of the drug. Less than $2,000 of drugs was found in the highly publicized raid of the Burlingame, Calif., laboratory in 2003.

Besides the staggering amount of taxpayers’ money the investigation has cost, BALCO spawned Congressional hearings, countless television news accounts and the best-selling book “Game of Shadows.” Yet the lack of a federal criminal punch made it difficult for the government to bring traditional charges against athletes for taking drugs.

The paucity of illegal profits and drugs raises the question whether prosecutors realized that the only potential for criminalizing the behavior of athletes who took banned substances was to set perjury traps or bait athletes into lying to the grand jury or to a federal agent.

“It sounds like a misuse of the grand jury,” said John Bartko, a former assistant U.S. Attorney in San Francisco who has tried perjury cases. “They go and try to trip the guy into lying.”

The government believes it has tripped Bonds, but whether he falls will be determined in court. The fact that the key drug he is accused of taking was legal and not recognized as a steroid under federal law could complicate the case, experts say.

“I don’t understand why the government would seek an indictment after obtaining Catlin’s expert testimony that the Clear was not a steroid,” Cannon said. “Why come up with an indictment based on an ambiguous definition?”

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

New York Mets Online: Off-Season Roundtable

Brian Joura of New York Mets Online invited me to participate in a round table discussion of the New York Mets off-season thus far and where they should go from here. I thought I was an interesting choice considering my years as a New York Yankees blogger. Check out this excerpt.

Mets Online Roundtable: The Off-Season

...There are some that would suggest the Mets sign an outfielder but they can afford to wait. The Mets should find out if Dan Murphy could be an everyday starter for them. The Mets have also refused to part with outfield prospect Fernando Martinez who would be part of the Mets 2010 outfield if all goes well. Signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn would not only be expensive but it would block the Mets’ younger players. If Ramirez and Dunn become bargains that the Mets can’t resist they should go for Dunn rather than Ramirez. Dunn at the very least can be moved to first base in 2010 when Carlos Delgado becomes a free agent...

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Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

I usually avoid the top ten lists that you see on most fantasy sites. This is primarily because I find there is very little value in a list of players without scouting reports or evaluations of some kind that let the reader know why "Player A" is listed ahead of "Player B". This is why I have zero problem with suggesting you read this very interesting comparison between the Top 100 Outfielder lists of The Sporting News and Fanball.com fantasy baseball magazines and the list of my friend Paul Sporer of Baseball By Paul.
A small sample:

The Milledge difference seems to be a stark difference of opinion. My love for Milledge in 2009 could start reaching Jason Collette-Nelson Cruz levels by the spring. Meanwhile, fanball is less than impressed with the budding outfielder. The accompanying capsule for Milledge said they were put off by his streakiness which isn’t a totally unfair critique. It’s easier for me to overlook the month-to-month swings since I play roto leagues almost exclusively. If he avoids the slow start he had in 2008 and doesn’t miss an entire as he did last July, I can’t see how he doesn’t show growth in 2009.

The Tattooed Titan, Josh Hamilton, fell pretty deep in their top 20. I remember thinking I might have been overrating him at six and it seems that the fanball guys would seem to say I did in fact. However, if they look at my rating of sixth among outfielders and think I was generous compared to their 18 slotting, I wonder what they thought of Yahoo!’s Brandon Funston rating him ninth OVERALL on his initial Big Board of 2009.

Now just for the hell of it, my top 15 outfielders. I won't allow you to hold me to it in drafts because it changes frequently but this is what it looks like right now.

1. Grady Sizemore - You can't go too wrong starting with 40/40

2. Ryan Braun - Everyone's favorite slugger steals a few bases too

3. BJ Upton - A 30/30 season would not shock me, in fact I expect one

4. Matt Kemp - This is the guy I want in every draft this season

5. Josh Hamilton - Others may doubt him, but I have faith he'll deserve this ranking

6. Matt Holliday - The change of teams won't be a problem

6. Carl Crawford - One injury-marred season after a long string of great ones

8. Carlos Beltran - Always better than expected

9. Carlos Lee - A stud slugger, in a great ballpark

10. Jason Bay - Fenway and the Red Sox lineup are big positives

11. Nick Markakis - Only a dozen stolen bases keep him from the top five

12. Curtis Granderson - He could very well be number one in 2010

13. Shane Victorino - He could have a 20/40 season this year

14. Ichiro Suzuki - Another boring .330, 50 stolen base season

15. Manny Ramirez - The decline is coming but he isn't done yet

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams