MAY IS HERE...WHERE IS YOUR TEAM?

The drafts and auctions are over. Other than checking boxscores every hour or two, what should we do now?

A lot of owners say just let them play awhile. But that’s second division thinking. There are a couple of ways you can help your squad improve right now. Both take a considerable amount of effort, but can yield substantial results.


Step 1: Many leagues provide the opportunity for owners to add new players to their rosters, either by free agent purchases or waiver claims. Some leagues allow you to pick up anyone from your fantasy league web site, while others require that a player be active before you can bid on him or claim him. Either way, it's a good idea to study the free agent list very thoroughly.

The time to get a player at a good price is before he pops up on everyone's radar. There are usually signs that an excellent opportunity is about to take place. If it looks like a player is scuffling so badly that the club may send him down, someone stands to pick up that playing time. It might be a fourth outfielder moved into a full-time job, or it might be the guy tearing up AAA who almost made the team out of Spring Training.

Take Casper Wells as an example. It may be that the only thing keeping him from playing every day is Austin Jackson, who has been terrible so far. If Wells hasn't already been taken in your league, he might be a good speculative play, given his combination of power and speed.

On the pitching side, anticipating a change in the way a reliever is used can bring rewards. For those of you in keeper leagues, an investment of a buck or two could have netted you a great freeze in Joel Hanrahan.

Another example is Fernando Salas. The owners who grabbed last week (or who might grab him this week) are optimistic, as he has now picked up two saves for the Cardinals.


Step 2: If you haven't already done so, it can be a good idea to analyze the rosters of every other owner. Doing so will show you where the other owners have weak areas which need to be improved, as well as areas of surplus from which they might deal. I make notes of my impressions of each of the other teams, and pull out those notes when a trade opportunity comes along.

Many owners just aren't very proactive when it comes to trading. The odds of making a deal with one of these passive owners can be increased significantly if you can demonstrate how your trade proposal can help his team. "You have plenty of pop on your roster, probably the most in the league. It looks like you could use a little speed, though. How about I give you X for Y. X might be good for three or four points in the standings, since stolen base totals are so closely grouped". It never fails to amaze me how many trade offers I receive that would do absolutely nothing to make my squad better. My usual response is "How would this help my team?"


Step 3: Even though every owner knows that it is still April, there's still a psychological tendency for some owners to hit the panic button when three or four of their players are hitting .160, or their team ERA is over 6.00 and rising. This can create some excellent opportunities to help your squad. I realize that everyone says "buy low" and "sell high", but doing so successfully requires finding the player who is badly under-performing now, but who should get it rolling any time.

Buying low also requires finesse. If your approach makes it obvious you are looking for a motivated seller, you may frighten away your prey. Similarly, if you are trying to trade away your $5 outfielder who is playing like an MVP, but is bound to come down to earth soon, be careful how you approach. Everyone has a different approach to trading, and sometimes the approach which is best depends upon owner across the trading table.


In summary, a vigilant owner can help his team this time of year. Lineups and pitching staffs are still shaking out. A free agent you buy now can help you for five more months, as opposed to a player purchased in August. Stay calm, but if others around you are growing impatient with their players, be ready to step in with a trade offer.

Well, that's it for this week's article. I hope your teams have gotten off to a good start, but if they have stumbled out of the gate, there are ways to get them back on track.

Good luck, and have fun!

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Ryan Roberts & Sergio Santos

I am drinking the Kool Aid. I am a believer. This is a storybook kind of player. His name is Ryan Roberts. While the Diamondbacks were desperately looking for a third baseman in the offseason, and settled with an aging (to put it kindly) Melvin Mora...little did they know that there was a home-grown guy ready to step it up.

So is this guy ready for the big time? Will there be a typical baseball movie deal in his future? Let's see:
"In 2003, Baseball America analyst John Manuel described Roberts as the best player on the University of Texas at Arlington's squad which also included Hunter Pence."
"On August 3, 2006, Roberts connected on a solo home run in Yankee Stadium for his first major league hit in his second ever major league game."
"hit .290 in 2009 in his first true major league regular job at the age of 28, taking over the everyday second baseman's job around midseason....and tore up August with a .352 average and 4 HR."
"Stunk it up in 2010 and spent most of his time in Reno."

Sounds like a decent script to me. In any case, this guy has shown in the past that he can hit in the majors. He is extremely versatile (he is eligible at nearly every position in one of my leagues), has decent power and decent speed. I'm calling 2010 Roberts' wake-up call, and now he is taking advantage of his chance. And finally, there is no way Melvin Mora is going to stand in his way any longer this season.

Now it is true, I should have posted this last week....but family obligations, etc. etc. But if Roberts is still out there, take the shot -- he is still only 50% owned on CBS.

Sergio Santos....I'm going to be honest, I have only seen him pitch once or twice. But when you are trolling for cheap saves, it means jumping now on guys you know you probably won't have on your roster for a very long time. That means biting the bullet and signing Darren Oliver for two weeks (has anyone played for more major league teams?).

It also means taking a shot on Santos, who has converted two straight saves in the back of the murky ChiSox bullpen -- and I think he has yet to piss off Ozzie Guillen, so roll with it while it lasts!

Definitely helps that when you check out his last 7 game log, Santos has posted goose eggs all the way down the dreaded ER column...and that's how you don't piss off Ozzie, and that's how you move up in the standings.

Good luck!

Links You May Find Interesting

Whither Clay Buchholz’s Fastball?

Something is clearly off with Buchholz if he is seeing nearly a three mph drop from the end of last year, but last year’s velocity increase throughout the season is encouraging news for anyone concerned that his fastball is gone and never coming back.

Frank McCourt to make longshot pitch to league officials

The result of that meeting could determine whether McCourt proceeds with legal action against Commissioner Bud Selig, but one longtime major league executive said Tuesday he is convinced nothing McCourt might say could sway Selig from moving toward new ownership of the Dodgers.

Still No Joe Mauer?

Today, Joe Mauer should be coming off the DL. He’s not. We don’t know why. We don’t know why he went on the DL in the first place, because after 2 weeks, it seems unlikely that it was just the flu. We don’t know what the specialist in Baltimore told him. And we don’t know what needs to happen for him to return, or how long that will be. I’m starting to wonder if anyone in the Twins does know.

24 Consecutive Games With A Hit Makes ESPN's Karabell Notice Ethier

Fantasy owners have a tendency to assume that a player performing above and beyond his past history early in a season is an automatic sell-high option. But in the case of Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who is in the midst of an April-record hitting streak (extended to 24 games Wednesday!), I'm not so sure that's the case. In March, I recommended numerous Dodgers as bounce-back choices, led by Matt Kemp, Ethier and Rafael Furcal and, to a lesser degree, James Loney and Jonathan Broxton (OK, so that's not working out), but as I watch Either hit against the Florida Marlins on Wednesday afternoon, I'm reminded that he can flat-out hit, and he looks versatile at the plate, stinging line drives all over the field.

Segura and Trout Continue to Break Out

Meanwhile, Jean Segura persists in simply dominating Cal League pitching, and launched his first two HRs Wednesday night with the 66ers in a 17 hit onslaught against the Mavericks in High Desert. This was coupled with two stolen bases to give him eight bags on the young season. Segura, who turned 21 in March, has made the transition to shortstop effortlessly, with only a single error in the first 18 games.

The Jose Bautista Cleanup Project

While more and more opponents may be intimidated of facing Jose Bautista, is it possible the Blue Jays aren't maximizing his potential by batting him in the three slot? On any other team, their best hitter would be hitting cleanup, but Bautista remains hitting third.

Are you enjoying the NBA Playoffs?

Oklahoma's Stars Have Words

Don’t get me wrong, Westbrook is a fantastic player, and at 22 he’s going to be one for a long time. But he’s a fantastic player with a Colorado-sized chip on his shoulder, and his quest to leave his imprint on every possession of every game often takes him racing past the nuances that could make him a better point guard and a better basketball player.

How the Grizzlies Came to Be

The process of returning the Grizzlies to respectability began in the summer of 2008 when the team traded for the draft rights to both O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur. To get Mayo’s rights they had to trade the rights to Kevin Love, but even though Love is currently the better player, Mayo has been a solid contributor to this year’s team. Arthur was disappointing in his first two seasons with the team, but has emerged as an athletic, energy guy off the bench for Memphis this season and is in the conversation for Most Improved Player.

The Season Thus Far...

It has been a great season so far.

Maybe, they all seem great to me. But I'm having fun watching the game this year. Really enjoying baseball. The Boston Red Sox are fighting their way back to a .500 winning percentage, a feat never accomplished by a team starting 0-6. But we all knew they were better than this. Their starters got off to a rough start but have been lights out lately. Dice-K Matsuzaka has been great in his last couple of starts, truly great, great like the hype said he would be five years ago. The starter that hasn't really come on as expected is Clay Buchholz. But we knew he was not quite what he seemed to be last season. Too much of that bad start is being credited to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and too much credit for the resurgence has gone to Jason Varitek. If you can afford to hold on to Salty, I would do it. Kevin Youkilis is hitting but not at the levels we know he can reach. Carl Crawford is slumping but has shown signs of emerging lately, he's way too good to give up on.

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians are shocking a lot of baseball fans with their hard-fought wins and losses. The Tribe's Jack Hannahan (an unlikely starter at third base by most reckonings) hit two homers last night against those Royals and their staff's number one starter Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been a mixed bag this season. He has a decent whip but his era is a bit high at this point. Stick with him if you have nothing to lose or you can stash him against certain teams. But he is the kind of pitcher that will frustrate you over the course of the season. I have my eye on every player these two teams call up, because their best players have yet to arrive.

A ton of great players haven't really hit their rhythm yet. Albert Pujols has shown signs of breaking through his funk lately only to suffer a mild hamstring pull. Josh Hamilton is injured (again) and after a great start Nelson Cruz is slowing down a bit more than we like to see. Mark Teixeira also tried to break his slow start trend but hasn't really delivered the batting average. But it could be worse...

The Most Disappointing Ten (by fWAR) Thus Far

1. Raul Ibanez OF Phillies - He's losing at-bats to John Mayberry Jr.
2. Carl Crawford OF Red Sox - He'll be fine.
3. Aubrey Huff 1B/OF Giants - Is he back to that every odd year thing?
4. Juan Pierre OF White Sox - So much for speed never slumping...
5. Alex Rios OF White Sox - Now you know why the ChiSox are struggling to score runs...
6. James Loney 1B Dodgers - The man Jerry Sands will eventually force to be traded.
7. Chris Johnson 3B Astros - I'm shocked.
8. Miguel Tejada SS Giants - No, he doesn't have much left but he's still better than this.
9. Nick Markakis OF Orioles - He'll probably never be what we hoped, but trade for him now.
10. Brett Gardner OF Yankees - Supposedly his swing is messed up. I'm a little worried.

and so we're not dwelling on the negative...

The Best of the Best Thus Far... (another Top Ten by fWAR)

1. Jose Bautista 3B Blue Jays - Now do you believe?
2. Joey Votto 1B Reds - MVP, MVP, MVP!
3. Troy Tulowitski SS Rockies - I thought those picking him 2nd overall would be disappointed, opps...
4. Matt Holliday OF Cardinals - "I don't need no damn rehab games or time off!"
5. Howie Kendrick 2B Angels - Finally!
6. Ryan Braun OF Brewers - Already rewarded with a new contract. Groundball hitter...HAH!
7. Curtis Granderson OF Yankees - Ok, coach you fixed Grandy but you screwed up Jeter and Gardner!
8. Colby Rasmus OF Cardinals - This might be the season he puts it all together.
9. Matt Kemp OF Dodgers - I never doubted you, buddy!
10. Andre Ethier OF Dodgers - Outfielders are ready, just need an owner.

In case you care, I've not been well lately. Nothing tragic, but I've been exhausted. Too much so to do much more than work my crazy stressful day job and deal with my four hours of commuting back and forth. I hope you've enjoyed reading Pauly and Lucky's work, I'm praying they'll stick around. But this site isn't going anywhere but up and to better places in the future.

Pauly's Pickup of the Week: Nick Hundley

OK I may be a tiny bit biased about this one, but here's my case.

Back on draft day, I put Hundley up for auction as my second nominee at my 10-team NL-only auction. I put him up for a dollar, since I only bid $1 for catchers, just to see what would happen. Would it become a nightmare when low-ranked guys like Hundley actually went for more than a dollar? Well, it wouldn't, because I put up Hundley and all I heard were crickets.

So, I landed him for a buck, but I wasn't that worried. Hundley was tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, he is the magic age of 27, and he has three good years under his belt with a steadily progressing OPS.

Catcher, as a fantasy position, is the closest thing to a barren wasteland of contributors as you can get, and most people are just trying to find a guy that wont hurt them, as opposed to helping them. With a guy like Hundley, you can likely have your cake and eat it too -- at least the way he is raking right now.

Needless to say, Hundley has already earned his dollar this season, batting .361 and slugging .639 through his first 11 games. Let's compare that to the 12 catchers who were picked before him (excluding the big-money guys, who, outside of McCann, Hundley is outperforming anyway).

Hundley: .361 avg 2 HR 1.081 OPS

1. Geovany Soto: .220 avg 1 HR .646 OPS
2. Miguel Montero: .444 avg 2 HR 1.262 OPS
3. Mike Napoli: .333 avg 3 HR 1.312 OPS
4. Matt Wieters: .212 avg 1 HR .661 OPS
5. Yadier Molina: .189 avg 0 HR .539 OPS
6. Carlos Ruiz: .351 avg 2 HR .982 OPS
7. Kurt Suzuki: .186 avg 1 HR .581 OPS
8. Jorge Posada: .189 avg 5 HR .825 OPS
9. J.P. Arencibia: .323 avg 2 HR 1.110 OPS
10. Chris Iannetta: .207 1 HR .866 OPS
11. Russell Martin: .289 3 HR .904 OPS
12. John Buck: .217 1 HR .641 OPS

As you can see, of everybody who spent more than you on draft day for a catcher (forget the dudes who banked on McCann, Mauer, Posey, Martinez and Santana -- that's a discussion of craziness for another article), only those who drafted Miguel Montero, J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli are feeling as good as Hundley owners right now -- and those owners undoubtedly spent much more at the draft to earn those stats.

Can Hundley keep it up? Sure, a .440 BABIP isn't going to last, but Hundley has already been moved up into the heart of the San Diego lineup (he hit fifth on Thursday), with the rest of the team struggling offensively. The bottom line for me is Hundley is a guy who was trending upward heading into the season, had a great spring training, and is continuing that rise to start the season.

Nick Hundley isn't Carlton Fisk, but if you own some of those guys above, it may be time to consider a change. Go pick up Hundley and pawn dead weight like Wieters or Soto to a less-savvy owner for something that can actually help you in the short- and/or long-term. The longer these high-priced catchers suck, the less time you have to cash in on their perceived value.

My pitcher pick for this week remains Alexi Ogando. Go get him!

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Brennan Boesch & Alexi Ogando

For all of you who missed out on the Jordan Walden sweepstakes, here are a couple of guys to keep a close eye on (and potentially make a move). I understand that everyone's league is different, but my pickups of the week should apply to your standard 12-team formats.

And if last week's recommendation is any indication, these choices are merely suggestions :)

Hitter of the week: Brennan Boesch OF Det
Those of us who rode the Boesch roller coaster last year know how good it can be when the young outfielder is running hot. They key is to get while the gettin's good -- and now is that time. Why? Because this guy is about as free as a free-swinger can get, which usually translates into the highest of highs and rock-bottom lows.

Boesch hit .342/.397/.593 in the first half last year, was actually snubbed (arguably) from the all-star team, and was leading the AL Rookie of the Year race by a mile. But of course, his ultra-aggressive approach eventually caught up to him, and he hit an almost unbelievable .163/.237/.222 the rest of the way.

As of now, Boesch is getting a lot of playing time, and even opened the season with hits in four of his first five games. Sure, he didnt have any walks in that span, but he does have two free bags in his last three games (albeit with no hits) -- for a guy with only 40 walks in 464 ABs last year, this might actually be an improvement.

In any case, it doesnt hurt to pick up a hot player, and Boesch certainly fits that category right now.

Pitcher of the Week: Alexi Ogando, Tex
Last week I was in Vegas blowing $ with my uncanny ability to pick the wrong side of baseball games -- and during an incredible streak that saw me pick 9 games and win only ONE (ouch), I did happen upon this rookie starting pitcher with the Texas Rangers.

For my bet, I had taken the underdog and much more heralded rookie, Michael Pineda of Seattle, to upset Ogando and the Rangers. But the young Dominican converted outfielder stole the show (and my cash) with a downright nasty fastball that was hitting 95-plus routinely with movement, along with a very good-looking slider and splitter.

Ogando may be a risk, since he does not have extended time pitching (only 112 IP over four years in the minors), is only filling in for Brandon Webb right now (well that's not so bad), and lets face it, the Mariners hitting lineup might be worse than the University of Virginia's.

However, with this kind of electric stuff, be sure to see what Ogando does in his next start, which comes today at 1 p.m. against the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander.

UPDATE: Ogando looked awesome today, pitching 7 innings with 4 K, 1 BB, 2 hits allowed and no runs. If Neftali Feliz shuts the door, Mr. Ogando is 2-0 and has himself a pretty decent ERA (that's under 1.00, kids). Mark my words, he will be the hot pickup across fantasy baseball....probably in less than 2 weeks.

Pauly's Pickup of the Week: Takashi Saito

Time to throw out those multi-sheet projections (better yet, recycle them)....it was opening day yesterday, which means it's time to start going on some real numbers.

When you have 6 total MLB games to go on, the player pool for the first pickup of the week is rather thin, but thanks to Ramon Hernandez, it was pretty easy to pick the first one - Brewers RP Takashi Saito.

Heading into the season on those projection sheets, John Axford looked pretty decent -- he was a good strikeout guy last season and was very successful in the closer's role, converting 24 of 27. What a difference a day makes, as the second-year pitcher got utterly torched with an inherited three-run lead, looked bad doing it, and the debacle was capped by a three-run walk-off HR courtesy of the light-hitting Hernandez.

Yes, it is just one game, and yes, Axford only gave up one HR in 58 innings last year, but -- in all honesty -- my eye was on Saito even before this mess.

Saito may be flying under the radar because of his more limited (than he is used to) role with the Braves last season. Even so, he was still extremely effective (2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) -- something that happens with Saito just about every season. Take away his one year with the Red Sox (the year his closer role was stripped away), and the career WHIP is in the 1.05 range.

Let's not forget that Saito was a big-time closer for the Dodgers for three straight years from '06-'09, where he averaged 20-plus saves with some of the best ratios you could hope for; and not only that, but he is also a true contributor in Ks for an RP. Yesterday Saito came into the 8th inning with a 3-run lead and gave up two singles, but he also struck out two and got out of the inning unscathed.

For all Axford accomplished last season, he is still not the most experienced closer on Milwaukee. If you aren't willing to take Saito now for the ERA, WHIP and Ks, you'd best keep an eye on him and Axford in Milwaukee.

I will be on the road in Vegas next Friday, so Pauly's Pickups of the Week will next appear on Monday April 11. From then on, this column will appear on Fridays. --Pauly

Opening Day is Here!

Today is the day we rest. Well, first we set our lineups, (it's a long week one in some leagues, not ending until April 10th for some) then we sit down crack open a few beers (after we call in sick) and just chill (after we take the kids to school) and watch the games, one after the other.

Opening Day should be a holiday, if Valentines Day and St Patrick's Day count as real holidays, I think Opening Day is on a par with Christmas. Are you with me? Let's write our congressmen.

A few things to remember:

1. You can check out all the opening day rosters and DL moves at MLBdepthcharts.com
2. Have fun today, don't stress about your weekend drafts.
3. Chat about the game with other Roto-Junkies!

Peace and Happy Opening Day!

DRAFT INFLATION

Draft Inflation is one of the least understood concepts in all of fantasy baseball. Some people try to ignore it, which is about as practical as ignoring gravity...you do so at your own peril.

A fantasy auction is not, as some claim, an example of a free market. Demand is fixed. We can have no more than five outfielders or two catchers (without using the UT slot). On the other hand, we must have no fewer than five outfielders and two catchers. Supply is fixed...in the AL, we have 25 players each on 14 teams to choose from. Most importantly, the amount we spend is fixed. No matter what, we all have the same amount of money. But even though supply, demand and funds are finite and predetermined, the possible scenarios are practically limitless, more so in a keeper league.

I have heard owners say things like “Boy, the price for speed was inflated today”, or “Rangers will have inflated salaries since the auction is in Dallas”. I even heard one owner in a redraft league talking about what he expected the inflation rate to be in his auction. But, the cost of a single category cannot be inflated, nor can the salaries of a certain team be inflated. And pre-auction inflation cannot exist in a non-keeper league. What these owners were talking about were league preferences or tendencies. Your league may pay a lot for ace starters, or the top closers, or the speedsters, or whatever commodity is in the shortest supply. Every league is different. But when it comes to inflation, all keeper leagues are alike in the important particulars.

Inflation is a function of the value (projected) of the players frozen and the cost (actual salary) of those players. These two factors determine how much money will be chasing how much value in the auction. Assuming the value of the players kept is, in the aggregate, greater than their cost, inflation results.

Inflation should always be calculated as part of preparation for an auction in a keeper league. Calculated, not estimated or guessed. You can calculate it with reasonable accuracy even before the freeze date, provided you can fairly well project what the other owners’ freeze lists will look like. (And yes, projecting all the other freeze lists can be valuable part of auction preparation.)

It is simply calculated. Let’s use a mixed league example. A 15-team $260 mixed league has $3900 in salary dollars to spend. The non-inflated value of the 345 players frozen and to be purchased in a mixed league auction is also $3900. (This is a tenet of fantasy baseball...that the value of the players selected equals the total of dollars to be spent. I can go into this more deeply, but for now let’s just assume it is true.) For purposes of this example, let’s say the total projected value of all keepers in the league is $2060, and that the total salary dedicated to those keepers is $1363. To calculate a league’s inflation rate, you first subtract the total projected value of the keepers from the total value of the player pool, which gives you $1840. Then you take the actual cost of the players kept, and subtract this sum from the total league salary, which gives you the sum of $2537. So, you have $2537 auction dollars chasing $1840 worth of non-inflated auction value. This difference is what drives the price of players upward. Divide the auction dollars by the auction talent ($2537 divided by $1840), and you get 1.379. That means the league inflation is 37.9%.

Every player’s projected auction value must be increased to account for a this inflation rate. A $45 Crawford becomes a $63 Crawford. The $20 player now becomes a $28 player. A $1 player remains $1. The reason this player is a $1 to begin with is that only one person is able or willing to spend a dollar on him.

So, what do you do about inflation? Some owners may decide not to pay the inflated prices demanded by the auction. These owners will not get any of the best players. Eventually, they either give in and pay the inflated price, or they will wind up at the end of the auction with a large amount of money and little or nothing to spend it on.

As mentioned in a previous article, the object is not to come out of the auction with a team worth $260. The object is to come out of the auction with a team which will make a profit. But each dollar you spend on a player above his projected value reduces the overall value of your team. If you have $60 salary tied up in your keepers, have $200 to spend at the auction, and the inflation rate is 25%, then you should get only $160 in value for your money due to inflation. This would knock a big hole in the profits you have in your keepers. (The math on this threw me for awhile. I kept getting $150. But you’re not discounting $200 in salary by 25%. You are increasing the cost of $160 worth of players by 25%. It works. You can try it yourself.)

Keepers create profit. Inflation takes it away.

The task then becomes finding a way to counteract this phenomenon, or as the lapel buttons during the Gerald Ford administration said, “WIN" for "Whip Inflation Now”. This can be done, so long as you have a solid handle on player values and have calculated inflation accurately. But you have to be confident of your calculations in this regard.

Here are some things you can do, which will depend in part upon the knowledge and tendencies of the other owners in your league. These tips or strategy are designed primarily for leagues with very high inflation, which I consider to be 40% or higher.

In many auctions, the first people thrown are the biggest stars. I fully expect Albert Pujols to be nominated first in my mixed league auction this Saturday. Sometimes owners are hesitant to bid big on the first few players. They may be unwilling to bid the full inflated value on these early players. (They may decide that they want to wait “until the inflation goes down”.) But if your calculations show the inflated value of Hanley Ramirez to be $53, and he’s going once, going twice for $42, you have a chance to step up and get a substantial bargain. His non-inflated value might be only $36 in your league, but if you have grabbed him up for $43, you have added profit to your team.

Some leagues are much more savvy to inflation, and will not let those big stars go for less than their inflated values. Instead, these leagues will actually pay more than the inflated values for the big name players. They may believe, as some do, that inflation impacts the highest priced players disproportionately. They may think the key to winning is having big stars regardless of price. Or they may just have a serious desire to roster Albert Pujols. Whatever the reason for this tendency, you can use it to your advantage.

The dynamics of an auction in progress can impact the inflation rate. As mentioned above, the thing to do when the auction starts with owners paying less than the full inflated rate for players, this is the time when you step in and start buying players. The inflation rate will actually under circumstances. However, if owners start off paying more than the inflated value, inflation will begin to decrease. This will eventually yield bargains among the second tier players, as the owners have overspent. Patience is required for this to work, and you have to make certain there adequate value still on the board. Your money will do no good if there are no players to spend it on.

But what an auction in a league where the other owners have calculated inflation and are buying players at or near the inflated value? Finding profit is harder to do in this case. One thing you can do is to nominate a second tier player while there are still more valuable players available at his position. The other owners may not bid as aggressively on this second tier player if they have their eye on one of the higher value players. But, you cannot wait too long; you cannot wait until after all the stars are gone. If you do, you’ll be going up against owners with money who will bid your guy to full inflated value, or more, if position scarcity is a consideration.

You may also have some guys you are sitting on, guys you have picked to outperform what is expected from them. I would recommend sitting on these guys for as long as possible, only throwing them out when necessary. Of course, you may find that some other owner may be sitting on the same guy, in which case you might wind up in a bidding war.

Inflation rates vary from league to league and from year to year, depending upon the quality of keepers frozen. Some leagues have minimal inflation, near 10%, while other leagues may have inflation rates of 40%, 50%, even 75% or higher. Some owners feel that hyper-inflation can detract from the enjoyment of the league, and I have seen that happen. So where does super high inflation come from?

Various factors can contribute to extremely high inflation. There may be a large difference in skill levels among owners, with more resourceful owners picking players in the auction or reserve draft at salaries which make them superb keepers. It may be that the league has a keeper policy that is very liberal, such as being able to keep players for lengthy periods with minimal salary increases. Some leagues don’t assign substantial salaries to the players taken in their reserve draft. Some leagues have free agent or waiver procedures that increase the number of top keepers. Some leagues don’t start the contract of minor leaguers to running until they make it to the majors or even until they lose their rookie status.

There are some things you can do in your league if inflation is a concern in these areas. Make all contracts commence running at the time the player is acquired, and limit contracts to three years. If contracts may be extended, they should cost a substantial amount during each year of the extension. Assign substantial salaries to reserve draft rounds, such as $15 for the first round, $10 for the next few rounds, etc. Make the contracts of minor leaguers start running immediately. Require a minimum bid for free agents, such as $5. Don’t allow free agent bidding after the rosters expand in September. (Some of these ideas have been around since the beginnings of leagues with active rosters and large reserve rosters. Whether you utilize them or not can determine in large part what your league’s inflation rate will be. Semi-related note...I read recently of a league which misconstrued the language of their borrowed Constitution, resulting in their belief that a player being traded started a new contract clock. So, owners would wait until the third year of a contract, and then trade that player to another owner for a player in his third year. All the best players in the league had been under cheap contracts for years and years. They didn't understand why they had such massive inflation. They were shocked to learn the reason, and moved quickly to correct that misunderstanding.)

Whether you like it or not, inflation is a part of the game if you play in a keeper league. How you deal with it can determine whether you are a contender or a cellar dweller.

Well, that’s it for this week’s article. I hope it has deepened your appreciation of this topic, or at least has reminded you to be aware of the impact inflation may have in your upcoming auction.

Do you have any stories of crazy inflation in your league, or your own tips for beating auction inflation? Let's hear them in the comments section. I may have a new crazy inflation story or two after this weekend.

Good luck, and have fun!

NL Draft Day Pitching Bargains

Pauly's Pickups of the Week

We all know that the four-headed monster in Philadelphia is awesome, that Ubaldo was unbelievable last season and Lincecum can compete for the Cy Young every year. What many drafters don’t know are the pitchers you can get on the cheap in the end-game who can help solidify your chances for a championship run. To quote Lucky from his “Building Your Auction Budget” post:

“In most leagues, as much as 30% of the pitching value comes from pitchers who were not projected to have value when the year started, and who are not reserve picks or free agents purchased during the season.”

While this list is focused on National Leaguers, even mixed league fantasy players should be keeping an eye on these guys as the early season progresses. You may be looking at this year’s Jaime Garcia, if you’re fortunate.

Five Draftable Pitchers (End-Game plays for your draft):

Brandon Beachy, ATL – I will put him at the top because he is in the news: Beachy has officially won the fifth starter spot for the Braves over Mike Minor. I’m sure some Minor owner somewhere just kicked something, but their loss is your gain on draft day. There isn’t a lot to go on here (Beachy only had a 3-game audition in Atlanta last season), but the converted reliever may give you Kris Medlen numbers (while they last). In 7 starts (45 IP) with AAA Gwinnett last season, Beachy struck out 48 to only 6 walks and had a 1.007 WHIP. Definitely worth a shot.

Kyle McClellan, STL – Adam Wainwright’s injured for the season, and McClellan will assume a role as the fifth starter going into the season. I have learned not to bet against Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan, so I won’t. Take this with a grain of salt, but McClellan is tearing up spring ball – he has only given up 1 run in 17 innings with 11 strikeouts to 6 walks. Opponent batting average is .158. The real concern is whether he can hold up moving from the bullpen to a starting role, but heading into the season, this guy is screaming “C.J. Wilson 2010” at me…enough said.

James McDonald, PIT – Wow, if mlb.com is listing McDonald as the No. 1 starter for the Pirates, I guess he won’t be that well-kept of a secret. A former top Dodgers prospect, I like McDonald coming into the season after a hot finish to the season with Pittsburgh last year. His September ERA was 2.31 with 30K in 35 IP, so he is definitely starting to come around…so hopefully your league mates have written him off as yet another blah Pirates pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez, FLA – The Marlins’ fourth starter is probably slipping under the radar even in NL leagues with Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez garnering the bulk of the attention. Sanchez managed to pitch a full season for the first time last season and responded with 20 quality starts out of 32 overall. But he was better after the break, with 86 strikeouts in 15 starts and a nice .239 opponent’s batting average. Although it seems like he’s been around, Sanchez is only 27 years old and on the rise.

Randy Wells, CHC – The great luck Wells had in 2009 was turned on its head in 2010, and he had a 4.36 ERA and 1.40 WHIP to show for it. If you remember ’09, you might recall Wells’ 3.05 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 27 starts. So what will we see in 2011? If spring training is any indication at all, Wells will be on the correct side of the numbers. He has a 1.35 ERA and a .164 opponent’s batting average for the spring, and he looks primed and ready for the season as the Cubs’ fourth starter.

Four "Keep and Eye on them" Players (Guys that may be hot pickups in the first two weeks of the season if they start well):

Homer Bailey, CIN – Everyone who has been waiting on Bailey to finally do something (including the Reds) have been waiting for this season. Bailey is guaranteed a rotation spot...and we have seen him called up before. Will this time be different? Bailey's K/BB ratio has been improving over his career, and he took a big step forward in both departments last season. That might bode well for this year. The guy has been up and down in the bigs since 2007 and the Reds have no more options with him. It's this year or bust.

Aaron Harang, SD – Now that he has escaped the clutches of Dusty Baker, will Harang dig his career out of the ditch it has been in? What helps is that he is moving away from the bandbox in Cincy to one of the top 5 pitcher's parks in San Diego. He will probably never strike out 200-plus guys like he did in back-to-back seasons in 2006-07, but he will put up respectable K totals and should get a little more luck in the ballpark.

Bud Norris, HOU – If you are picking up a Houston Astros pitcher this coming season, dont expect a bunch of wins :) - however, Norris showed in his first full season last year that he can get you some really cheap Ks. If he can improve at all on that near-5 ERA and the 1.48 WHIP, he could become a nice specialist pickup in the early going if you are short on strikeouts.

Chris Narveson, MIL – Much like Norris, Narveson is coming off his first full season and has shown potential with the strikeout. The difference is that Milwaukee used Narveson as a reliever briefly while Norris was always starting. This turns out to be a pretty big difference, as Narveson was a disaster as an RP (7.20 ERA in 9 innings of work). If you take that away, he was an 11-win pitcher (in 28 starts) with 130 Ks and a high 4 ERA. Make sure he stays on your radar.

...AND BY THE WAY...

This coming weekend marks the deadline for a lot of keeper leagues to turn in their freeze lists. This deadline is often accompanied by a profusion of trade activity, in addition to owner anguish over whether to keep this hitter or that pitcher as the last freeze. Many of these are as simple as knowing and applying your league rules. Let’s review a few important last-minute items which can help you make sure your keeper list is the best it can be.

1. Opening Day Roster Issues. Sounds simple, but many of us play in multiple leagues, all with different rules, and some of us are in new leagues this year. Rules regarding keepers vary significantly from league to league. Here are some things you should consider in making your final freeze list.

a) What if you freeze a player who doesn’t wind up on the Opening Day roster? Some leagues let you cut him. Some make you keep him, charging you with his slot and salary toward your 23/260. Some more liberal leagues allow you to move him to your reserve with no penalty. What does your league do?

b) What if you freeze a player who is seriously hurt between freeze day and Opening Day? Again, leagues differ. Some allow you to cut him. Some allow you to fill the slot with another player, but charge you his salary. There may be other variations. Which approach does your league follow?

2. Freezing minor leaguers. Many leagues have rules which allow you to keep a small number of “minor leaguers” in addition to your frozen active players. Minor leaguers are typically defined in the same manner MLB determines who is eligible for rookie status, namely pitchers who have thrown no more than 50 innings, had no more than 130 at bats, and accumulated no more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club during the period of the 25-player limit (excluding D.L. time and military service). Many leagues also require the player must not have appeared on an active league roster at any time prior. Many questions, however, can arise:

a) Say you have fewer than the maximum number of active roster freezes, plus some minor league freezes. Say further that after the freeze date, one of your minor league freezes makes the big club and is on the opening day roster. What are your options? Some leagues make you, prior to the auction, either activate the player or waive him. If you activate him, his slot and player salary count against your 23/260. Others allow you to leave him on your reserve, with no penalty.

b) Say you have a situation similar to that above, except you have frozen the maximum number of active roster freezes. Then one of your minor leaguers makes the OD roster. What are your options? Some leagues hold that since you cannot have over the maximum number of active freezes, you must either waive the minor league freeze, or waive one of your active roster freezes and promote the minor leaguer to the active roster. However, some leagues will simply allow you to leave that minor league freeze on your reserve roster.

3. Aging of contracts. Again, leagues differ on this crucial point. It is generally accepted that the contracts of all roster players, minor leaguers or active players, age each year. However, some leagues do not begin aging minor league contracts until the minor leaguer is activated by his owner or loses minor league status under the MLB rookie rules outlined above. How your league approaches this can be critically important, as it can substantially impact your choices of who to freeze as minor leaguers.

4. Oddball rules. There are some oddball rules around, some of which I add interest to the game. One example is the rule which allows each owner, on the day of the auction, to waive any single player layers from his/her freeze list, without penalty. In other words, if you wind up regretting that freeze of Hanley Ramirez at $57, you can simply drop him back into the pool, adding a roster slot and some serious cash back to your auction arsenal. Other non-standard rules include “topper” rights. If your league uses these, make sure you know how they work and how they can help you best structure your freeze list. Does your league have any unusual rules that can help or hurt you?

5. Freeze deadlines and extensions. All too often I see owners who either do not know or simply forget the deadline for keeper lists. Things can come up at the last minute, but we can plan for contingencies by having our lists as finalized as possible in advance. Personally, I send the commissioner an email a few days before the freeze deadline saying that “subject to last minute changes, these are my freezes”. Should I be unconscious in a ditch, at least I will have submitted my keeper list. When is your league’s freeze date?

Bear in mind that the deadline for submitting keeper lists is usually the deadline for submitting contract extensions. This is sometimes forgotten in the excitement of getting those freezes in. Be aware, or you might find that your cheap superstar is playing out his option year for you when he should have been anchoring your team for at least another couple of years.

(While on the subject of extensions, let me briefly climb upon the soapbox. I think they are overused. Too often, owners fall in love with their players and sign them to huge long-term contracts. In most leagues, the extended contract salary begins immediately. So, that $10 stud you sign for three extra years becomes $25 for 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Unless your guy is Babe Ruth reincarnate, hitting and pitching for you, such an extension would likely suck the profit right out of your guy, now and in future years. Plus, depending upon league rules, an extension like this could put you in a serious bind in the event of a sudden lack of effectiveness. I’ve been in leagues where dropping a player with a long-term contract reduced your auction budget by the amount of the contract, a harsh penalty indeed. So, my advice is to make sure you know all the rules on contract extensions, and to use them sparingly, enjoying your profits while you can.)

6. Keep working until the very end. A diligent owner will continue to explore ways to improve his/her freeze list until the last possible opportunity. The keys are hard work and persistence. For example, I start my serious work in January, assessing the player pool, analyzing the other team’s winter rosters, and projecting potential freeze lists for each team. This year, based upon built-in profit expectations, I found my own freeze list to rank well toward the bottom of the league. I had a lot of work to do. Starting in February, I began negotiating and finalizing trades, upgrading players and draft picks whenever possible. I made a total of 15 trades in seven weeks. How can that be done? We all know that different owners view players differently. This means a guy who is not a keeper for you may be just what another owner needs. But you have to get out there and do the legwork. In the old days, you had to negotiate all your trades by telephone. It’s easier today with email and instant messaging.

As a result of all this trading, I now have my maximum ten freezes plus two minor leaguers and some excellent draft picks. Only three of those twelve players were on my roster in January. It is now a team I believe to be much improved, and with a strong auction I should be in a position to contend.

Be persistent. Know what the other owner needs, and show him how the trade helps him. Pick up a better draft pick when you can. If you can avoid it, don’t do anything to strengthen a contender. Keep plugging until the end. My league’s keeper deadline is Friday night. And even though I‘m pretty sure I have my ten keepers, you can bet I‘ll be working the trade routes until the last minute, trying to pick up another draft pick or a better minor leaguer. Whatever the outcome, I‘ll know that I did everything I could to build the core of a competitive team…one that I‘ll have to live with for the next six months.

I hope something in here can help you, either this year or next, as you wind down to the freeze deadline in your keeper league. Not all of these suggestions are easy to follow, but all have been proven to be effective.

And now for something completely different….

DEAD TO ME. I kept seeing articles here and there talking about players who were designated as DTM. I had no idea what that meant. Finally my daughter explained the meaning: Dead To Me. This doesn‘t imply that you wish for harm to befall this person, merely that you finally refuse to acknowledge their very existence. Yet, somehow, you just can’t shake that fascination.

In fantasy baseball, there are a number of players who certainly would fit into that category, from back in the day until the present season. I guess my current King of DTM would have to be my old buddy, Alex Gordon. Truly, the man has been my nemesis for years, my Moriarty. How man times will he have to pull that football away at the last minute before I finally figure this out?

But hey, I hear he looks really good in Spring Training this year….

Want to vent? I’d love to hear from you in the Comments section…who is dead to you? Who are the players you can’t avoid, but who continue to break your heart.

Well, that’s the article for this week. I hope you have enjoyed it, and hope that you enjoy the site. Jon puts an awful lot of work into AFB, so if it adds to your knowledge base or enjoyment of our hobby, be sure to tell your friends about us.

Good luck, and have fun!

The 2011 Fantasy Baseball All Sleeper Teams

The idea of sleepers is an out-dated one. However, it is a tremendous amount of fun for fantasy
owners to come up with players that seem under-rated based on a wide variety of circumstances. If you split those collectively thought as sleepers into groups based on what makes them interesting, you might come up with teams like these.

Easy Like Apple Pie

C Mike Napoli - He is finally with a team that appreciates his skills but be careful not to over estimate his playing time. He'll be the primary DH against left-handers (and he'll rock at that) but at-bats against righties could be tough to come by on a crowded Rangers roster.

C Matt Wieters - So few catchers have ever been dominate offensive players at Wieter's age that calling him a sleeper seems unfair. Like calling a teenager a potential adult, if you just wait a few years he'll probably get there.

1B Mitch Moreland - He's young but he's a fairly disciplined hitter that should hit for both average and power in the middle of a great lineup in a great park for hitters. Plus he won't cost nearly as much as the equivalent hitter with more experience. Would you rather have a $12 Moreland or a $23 Derrek Lee?

3B Pablo Sandoval - His confidence is soaring, he's in the best shape of his life and his new condition should guarantee that doesn't get benched for poor defense again.

CR Jerry Sands - He won't begin the season with the team but he's too much the powerful hitter the Dodgers need to stay in the minors the entire season. I'm betting he's up in May.

2B Sean Rodriguez - He does a little of everything, and the price is right to gamble on what he does with career high at-bats. Twenty homers and a few steals would fit nicely on my teams.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI Gordon Beckham - His potential is just too high to give up on. Plus, the White Sox rushed him a bit anyway, so the slump was something not very difficult to fortell.

OF Jason Heyward - If he stays on the field (and healthy while doing so) for 550-600 at-bats, he's a potential 2011 MVP.

OF Mike Stanton - This is your next National League Homerun King. If you're worried that he won't hit for average you haven't been watching closely enough.

OF Dexter Fowler - He has all the tools and the developing skills to explode on the scene a lot like teammate Carlos Gonzalez did in 2010. Now he needs a cool nickname, De-Fowl? De-Ler? Dexter is a serial killer to me now...

OF Jay Bruce - Bruce hit .338/.418/.700 during August-October. Bruce hit 15 HR in his final 35 games. Bruce is coming around.

UTL Manny Ramirez - With Manny it is all about health and motivation. He seems motivated to keep his career going. He the opportunity, now he just needs to go do it. Are you really betting against him?

SP Shawn Marcum - He proved last season that he was fully recovered from elbow surgery. This season he gets not only the bump from moving from the American League to the National League, but a bump from the AL-East to the NL-Central. He is my pitcher to get in NL-only Leagues this season.

Or he was, until this came up:

Shaun Marcum left his start on Wednesday because of shoulder tightness, and while Marcum downplayed what he felt, his manager sounds concerned. From Andrew Gruman's story: "There is definitely concern there," said [Ron] Roenicke. "His neck bothered him the last couple of days and when he went out there today, he thought it was the neck. I don't know if he was overcompensating, I don't know. We're in a tough spot if he's down for a while." One evaluator who saw Marcum's start on Thursday clocked his fastball at 86 mph. Not a good sign. Marcum has never been a power pitcher, but what concerns evaluators who have seen him this spring, beyond the velocity, is the quality of his fastball. Hopefully for the Brewers and for Marcum, he'll get better as he goes along.

SP Matt Garza - Garza gets the same bumps as Marcum but a lot of analysts seem to feel he'll be hurt by Wrigley Field (at least the ones that don't just think he's overrated do). I think what he gains in the switch (like facing pitchers instead of David Ortiz, Adam Lind, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero) will more than make up for a few extra homers allowed due to park factors.

SP Edison Volquez - The ace the Reds are looking for isn't Homer Bailey or even Aroldis Chapman. What you're hoping is that your league mates pay too much attention his control numbers in 2010. We know his control is better than that, he had quite a bit of bad luck, the statistical kind and the regular kind. I think he's ready to step up big time with a contending team at his back.

SP Jonathan Sanchez - Slow and steady progress isn't as exciting as the big splash but you can often get it cheaper. He's definitely going to pitch better in 2011, but he may not be as fortunate with his BABIP, so be cautious in bidding.

SP Phil Hughes - All he needs is to get his confidence back with his change-up and he becomes a top 20 pitcher without a single doubt. That's the pitch he's been working on all Spring Training. It's gonna happen.

SP Daniel Hudson - He had an amazing second half, Hudson may not be an "ace" but he is damn good. He and Mr. Kennedy will put the D'backs back in contention.

RP Frank Francisco - The favorite for saves in Toronto. His only problem has been staying healthy. He does not have the platoon problems that the other candidates for the job have.

RP J.J. Putz - The new closer in Arizona. Don't let the injuries and non-closer season get you down on Putz. He's as good as they come when healthy.

RP Drew Storen - This great young pitcher surrounded by solid bullpen talent should be able to thrive as the Nationals new closer. He isn't being drafted very high so he makes a great later rounds saves grab. Forget his spring numbers, he'll be fine.

An Apple a Day

C Jarod Saltalamaccia - Yes he has had his struggles but most of them were health related. He has his confidence back and a major opportunity. He's going to smash this season if he stays on the field.

C Russell Martin - He looks healthy so far. That doesn't necessarily mean his bat will bounce back but if he can return to hitting for average even with reduced power, he'll be one of the better catchers in the American League.

1B Derrek Lee - If the back isn't cranky,and the hand problem isn't serious, Lee is going to love Camden Yards which gives a giant homer assist to right-handed batters. That boost should help minimize the effects of aging on this classy slugger.

3B Chipper Jones - Some injury prone guys you just give up on drafting. But Chipper has always been different. He wants to contribute so bad and is still quite a hitter when healthy. It makes you wish the Braves were in the American League.

CR Lance Berkman - He is in better shape but the outfield will still be a challenge for him at this point.But as long as his legs are solid, I expect to see a resurgence in his bat.

2B Brian Roberts - Back problems are scary. When I originally placed him on this list it looked like he was coming into the season strong. Now I'm a bit more worried but I'll still take him his present discount.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI J.J. Hardy - Hardy is not an ideal choice in H2H leagues because he is as streaky as they come. But with health and a favorable new park come 20 homers.

OF Grady Sizemore - You cannot risk drafting him as a top 30 outfielder as some have been doing. But if you get him in the pick 100-120 area I think you'll be happy with the return even if it isn't quite the long dreamed of 30/30 season.

OF Carlos Beltran - I thought he was comingback healthy this season but he is not bouncing back quite as well as hoped. Part of it is probably the Mets and Beltran being cautious. But at some point he needs to prove he can play, then my early Beltran picks in mock drafts will be justified. (Are you watching Justified on FX? A great show.)

OF Jacoby Ellsbury - A potential 70 steal guy, before the injuries. He has looked fantastic this spring.

OF Justin Upton - He was held back by a sore shoulder for most of the 2010 season. With health and good fortune I see an explosion coming, similar to Ken Griffey, Junior, after his 1992 season. Look it up, kids.

UTL Mark DeRosa - He should play multiple positions for the Giants this season. He has a way to go before he has proven he can return to his former production levels but at his ADP, I don't think it will be a problem.

SP Brandon Webb - He won't start the season with his former Cy Young form completely intact. He is healthy, but re-gaining his mechanics will take a while. He is best drafted if you have the ability to reserve him in April and May while he gets his mojo back.

SP Jordan Zimmerman - Tommy John Surgery is not quite the problem it used to be for pitchers (and their fantasy owners). Players used to need 18-24 months to fully recover both physically and to re-gain effectiveness. That has been trending closer to 12-14 months of late.

SP Jake Peavy - He sure looks healthy to me this Spring Training. I've cautioned against high expectations with Peavy but he should remain a top American League starting pitcher.

SP Josh Beckett - Josh gives owners a lot to think about. I still have a mild fear that he remains the keeper of a secret injury. The reduction in fastball velocity followed by the reduction in use of the fastball. Could an injury be the cause? But he was also unlucky in 2010, and even if he pitches basically the same, better luck would make him a decent starter in AL-only leagues. Then there's that blow to the head...

RP Huston Street - Okay, so he's a little on the fragile side. But he does his rehab and comes back strong every time. When he stops bouncing back I'll stop drafting him.

RP Joe Nathan - Tommy John Surgery just isn't the problem it used to be. These days a guy returns in 12-14 months and he's stronger than ever.

Teach A Man to Fish...

C Derek Norris - Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores are all in his way but Norris is the one who be guiding the Nationals pitching staff when they are ready to win. He'll prove that this season. He has the best bat of the bunch (by far) and though he has areas to improve defensively, throwing out 50 percent of potential basestealers will win you a ton of leeway.

C Robinson Chirinos - If nothing else he is more interesting than John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach. The Rays like him a lot, the Tampa Bay bloggers like him a lot and PECOTA likes him a lot. Here's a clip from TheProcessReport.com (one of the better Rays blogs out there):

So, imagine my delight when PECOTA projects a rather solid line for Chirinos right out of the chute: .261/.369/.455. That’s pretty good from any position, but catcher? Forget about it, consider that Prospectus has the league average catcher at .248/.321/.379 last season, leaving Chirinos with at least a .013 point advantage across the board. Impressive stuff, except some parts of this post are lies.

Prospectus does not have Chirinos projected at .261/.369/.455; Prospectus has Chirinos projected at .276/.360/.471. Even better – so why the deceit? Because the line everyone, from you to me to your mother would have taken from Chirinos belongs to someone hated in the fan base – Kelly Shoppach – and it’s not a projection, but rather how he hit left-handers last season. Folks are so quick to dismiss Shoppach from the roster for flavor of the month candidates like Jose Lobaton and Nevin Ashley that they forget Shoppach has utility to this roster and provided value last season.

1B Dan Johnson - Remember him? I'll let TPR take the lead again:

According to the research of Jason Hanselman of Dock of The Rays, Johnson’s expected BABIP (xBABIP) should have been right around the league average at .301. That equates to 13 extra hits and an expected slash line of .311/.432/.527. Even the biggest Johnson supporters would say that line is extremely optimistic, but keep in mind we’re talking about a small sample size of 40 games. The point is, even if Johnson’s 2011 BABIP is in the neighborhood of .250-.260, his batting average will improve and so will his already admirable on-base percentage.

3B Ian Stewart - It seems like he's been around forever but he is just 25 years old. He is finally feeling his job threatened and it seems to be exactly the motivation he needed. Stewart has been more vocal in the clubhouse and is putting up a fight for his job. He is working with hitting coach Carney Lansford on a slight alteration to his stance against lefties and on using the entire field rather than the pull-heavy style he has used in recent years. The potential is there and now the motivation is too.

CR Brett Wallace - A lot of teams are going to regret giving up on Brett Wallace so soon. He was a great hitter in college and a great prospect for the Cardinals, then after a year of being shuffled about we're shocked he lost his swing mechanics for a minute and struggled in an unexpected Major League debut? He's kicking ass this Spring, especially relative to the other Astros hitters.

2B Ryan Raburn - He is finally getting the playing time he'll need to make a serious impact on your fantasy team. Seriously, 30 homers (an increasingly rare feat) is a real possibility.

SS Alcides Escobar - Once the favored prospect of the Brewers, he was gonna be the base-stealing, gold glove shortstop of the next decade. Instead he is a Kansas City Royal. All that stuff he was gonna do for the Brewers? He'll just be doing it for the Royals' soon-to-be loaded and contending team.

MI Jed Lowrie - He is a better shortstop than Marcos Scutaro in almost every way, but Terry Francona is a loyal guy and he'll force Lowrie to fight for every at-bat and prove he deserves to play.

OF Logan Morrison - He has more power than early drafters seem to believe. He is only going to get better over the next few seasons. Even now he should hit for average with decent power and score a bunch of runs batting in front of Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez.

OF Carlos Gomez - Yeah, he's hitting .400 this spring. Sometimes it just takes time, sometimes it takes tough love, sometimes you just need people to think Lorenzo Cain is better than you.

OF Roger Bernadina - He is fighting for a starting outfield spot with the Nationals. Draft him whether he wins or loses. The Rick Ankiel and Nyjer Morgan types can't block him for much longer. He'll provide power and speed even as a bench guy.

UTL Juan Miranda - It looks like Russell Branyan will win the first base job. That is very understandable for a team that wants to win games now. I still back Miranda as a decent sleeper because the Diamondbacks have a gaping hole in left field, where Miranda can also play (if not particularly well. But he has a left field bat, which is more than you can say for most of the other candidates.

SP Craig Stammen - A strong groundball rate, a strong swinging strike rate that suggests his K-rate will rebound to levels closer to those on his minor league resume. And he'll be available so cheaply, you can't lose.

SP Carlos Carrasco - It seems like he's been around forever. He is just 24-years old. Analysts have debated for a few ears about his upside, mid-rotation or potential ace. He'll show us which this season, either way the price is right for acquiring him.

SP James McDonald - The Dodgers of the last few years give up on guys far too quickly. McDonald struggled a bit but he never got the chance to adjust. Now the Pirates will reap the benefits.

SP Phil Coke -When a guy gets moved from starting to relieving early in his career, we often forget how successful he was in his former role. Coke isn't a superstar but he's going to be a solid rotation guy.

SP Gio Gonzalez - A friend of mine has lost his mind trying to add Gio Gonzalez in every league. He's absolutely positive he is the next big breakout pitcher. He did have an amazing second half of the season. Gonzalez is also having a very nice Spring Training.

SP Brian Matusz - Matusz is a future ace. There no denying it. Do what you can to acquire him now. He's heating up this spring the way he did in the second half last season.

SP Max Scherzer - After his brief demotion, Scherzer posted a 2.46 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning over his final 23 starts. That's one of the best pitchers in baseball for almost two thirds of the season.

RP Ryan Webb - He has the stuff to close. I've always hated Leo Nunez.

RP Kenley Jansen - He's a middle reliever you want on your pitching staff. He'll help your pitching staff (especially in strikeouts) more than a lot of starters would.

RP Johnny Venters - The man who should be closing for the Braves, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

RP Evan Meek - The man who should be closing for the Pirates, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

Its Not Where You're From...

C Hank Conger - As the only catcher the Angels have, who knows how to use a baseball bat, Conger is bound to get playing time. He can hit but he's still a rookie so don't overbid.

C Jonathan Lecroy - He'll miss four weeks with a finger fracture but he is still the starting catcher. He can hit a little too. He'll be a great one dollar catcher in 2011.

1B Adam Dunn - One of the best sluggers in baseball is moving from an National League pitchers' park to one of the best homer parks in the American League. Fifty homers is not out of the question.

3B Edwin Encarnacion - His potential is immense. Imagine he starts taking to the same coaching Jose Bautista starting to use the last couple of years? I have a hunch this could be the year. He's been sufficiently humbled.

CR Carlos Pena - It was a big portion of bad luck for a guy who has a small margin for error. He should rebound this season with the Cubs who have a ballpark he should enjoy mashing within.

2B Chris Getz - You don't need every guy to be a hall of famer. You just need guys that will produce more than their cost to you. Getz will hit a few homers and steal some bases. He may even qualify at multiple positions.

SS Luis Cruz - It is very anti-sabremetrics of me to admit this, but I think Yuniesky Betancourt has been underrated, and even abused by the pro-Advanced Stat crowd. Sure, he isn't a great player but he gets ground into the dirt whenever his name is mentioned. It's a little much. But if the Brewers get sick of Betancourt's mediocre defense and his inconsistent bat, Luis Cruz is ready and raring to go. He tore up the winter leagues, don't take my word for it, go look it up.

MI Omar Infante - No, he doesn't really rank as an All-Star but he is a solid player about to get a career high number of at-bats. That usually equals career high stats for the talented guys and Infante is a talented guy. Plus, he's one of those guys that just looks like a Baseball Player.

OF Jay Gibbons - A once solid bat, that is probably out of place as a starter. It looks like Marcus Thames and Tony Gwynn are going to take a lot of at-bats from him. But for a buck or two, in a deep NL-only, he could be useful.

OF Rajai Davis - He hits for average, he steals a ton of bases and he'll score a mega-ton of runs. Don't get all down on him because of his on-base percentage, that probably doesn't matter in your league anyway.

OF Jordan Schafer - He's back, he's healthy and swinging the bat as he did a few years back. As soon as an opening presents itself he'll be the best fifth outfielder you've ever owned.

OF David Murphy - Because of the Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli acquisitions, Murphy will be sitting a little more than usual at the start of the season. But with Josh Hamilton fragile, Nelson Cruz fragile, and Julio Borbon inconsistent thus far - Murphy will get his at-bats.

SP Aaron Harang - Once upon a time owners actually wanted to draft Harang. He was a fairly effective pitcher with a decent strikeout rate. Then he ran into Dusty Baker and an unfavorable ballpark and everything went to hell. Now he has a manager used to coddling fragile arms and the best pitching park in the game.

SP Jeff Francis - The former ace of the Rockies has had some rough times of late, mostly due to injuries but seems healthy now, if not quite what he was once projected to be. He still has some stuff and a mind that knows how to use that stuff, and a ballpark stingy with homeruns.

SP Chris Young - See Jeff Francis, but change Rockies to Padres.

SP Kyle McClellan - They keep calling him the fifth starter for the Cardinals, but he won't be at the end of the season. Then they'll be calling him ace.

SP Mark Rzepczynski - With a new manager in place, a pitching oriented one, Rzepczynski has a chance to win a spot in the rotation again, or at least become a regular in the bullpen. Either way, I expect him to be very useful in AL-only leagues.

RP Joel Peralta - Someone has to get saves in Tampa Bay, it may as well be Peralta. If nothing else he's the cheapest of the guys projected to be part of the time-share.

RP Henry Rodriguez - I just like guys that can sling in 100mph in bullpens with closers I don't like.

RP Matt Belisle - He is not flashy but he is effective and in a bullpen with weaknesses.

RP Jordan Walden - He is the future closer of the Angels. Get him now.

RP Jesse Crain - If Thornton chokes on the big job, this guy rather than Sale just might be the answer.

Flying Pigs in a Wintery Hell

C Brayan Pena - The Royals would rather start broken down Jason Kendall.

C Jason Castro - He finally has a complete opportunity in his grasp and he gets hurt again.

1B Jason Giambi - He can still hit a ton of homeruns. If Todd Helton goes down again...

3B Jose Lopez - Everyone except the Rockies management apparently, would rather see Eric Young Jr. win the second base job this season.

CR Dallas McPherson - The White Sox may actually keep him on their bench this season. Maybe he'll put some at-bats together.

2B Luis Hernandez - He may have gotten some press as a possibility for the Mets but it will never happen.

SS Eric Farris - A toolsy possibility should the Brewers get sick of their mediocre and injury-prone middle infielders.

OF Carlos Gomez - Sure he has yet to show much potential in the majors but it's in there somewhere. Maybe the great spring is a sign.

OF Matt Joyce - The Rays traded for him and then they let him sit around for a while. But apparently he'll get serious play this season. In that case, you want him.

OF Johnny Damon - He'll keep Desmond Jennings down on the farm all season. No better reason for resentment than that.

SP Zack Duke - He depends on defense and the Pirates gave him none last season.

SP Scott Olsen - He's not even close to what he was maybe with a team like the Pirates he can accept that.

SP Paul Maholm - See Zack Duke.

SP Esmil Rogers - He gets the strikeouts and the groundballs, he just needs to have some BABIP luck, or stop allowing so many linedrives, either one. Looks like he has a spot in the rotation all sewed up.

SP Shawn Hill - He is always hurt, but when healthy he can be an effective starter.

RP Dontrelle Willis - His spring started off okay, but this is probably the last shot for Willis.

RP Fernando Rodney - He'll get saves but his ratio stats will suck.

Built-In Resentment

C Chris Ianetta - This is clearly Ianetta's last opportunity to prove himself with the Rockies. According to Denver Post columnist Troy Renck, minor-league catching prospect Jordan Pacheco has impressed veterans with his plate discipline and understanding of his swing. He says there are some in the organization that believe he can hit big-league pitching this season.

C Matt Wieters - In a lot of keeper leagues, Wieters owners have to decide before the season starts whether he deserves a contract extension or not. Prediction: Wieters will be available in a lot of drafts in 2012.

1B Kila Ka'aihue - In this case the resentment isn't ours. It comes from Royals GM Dayton Moore who hates that the power and average providing Ka'aihue has forced himself into the big league picture. He's also hated by those that need to spell his name.

3B Brandon Wood - Now that no one cares, he's absolutely positive to produce great numbers for a shortstop/third baseman.

CR Andy Marte - The Pirates are the latest team to give him a look.

2B Ben Zobrist - There is a guy in one of my leagues that could have traded his one dollar Zobrist for almost anything, but he held on to him. He thought the power was for real (so did I ) but it hasn't worked out so well so far.

SS Drew Sutton - A disciplined player in the Ben Zobrist class of hitters. He could start the season with the Red Sox. he won't get many at-bats but if an injury happens he could have use in AL-only.

MI Robert Andino - With J.J. Hardy injury-prone and Cedeno without a bat, Andino might be the best offensive option at short the Orioles have, at least at times during the season.

OF Felix Pie - The baseball gods just won't give Pie a break. When he plays well he either gets hurt or is then stuck on the bench behind a more proven player. He has not played well from the bench in his career but he says he's better prepared for that role this season.

OF Nate McClouth - He's back. No one knows where he went but 20/20 is once again a possibility.

OF Jeff Francouer - He is in a very comfortable situation. A coaching staff he's familiar with and an upper management that has faith in him. He has been put into a leadership role on a very young team. I have a hunch he has a decent season. But I won't pay more than a buck or two.

OF Alex Gordon - Judging by his Spring Training numbers he really wants to play on your team this season. Will you let him?

OF Julio Borbon - Many owners were disappointed by Borbon in 2010. But giving up on him is probably a mistake. He has the talent to be a top fantasy outfielder.

UTL David Ortiz - Something his slow starts the last couple of seasons has seen his stock drop dramatically in early drafts this season. I think he has another great season in him, especially surrounded by so much talent on the Red Sox.

SP A.J. Burnett - He's had a great spring and he has all the talent in the world. However, he tends to let us down.

SP Javier Vasquez - Except for those years with the Expos (doesn't that seem like a million years ago) and that one season with the Braves, he's been disappointing. He might be a solid pitcher this season but if you pay for more than that I name you sucker.

SP Oliver Perez - Maybe he can find a team that won't trash his mechanics and then release him when he loses velocity. Harold Reynolds agrees.

SP Joel Pinero - He's never quite as good as we hope.

SP Jason Hammel - Hammel tends to struggle with men on base. Probably because he gets hammered when pitching out of the stretch. However until those base runners get on he is a pretty good pitcher.

RP Joba Chamberlain - He's got his velocity back. Makes a huge difference. The oblique injury is just annoying.

RP Wilton Lopez - He pitches for that Astros, but I like him. I like him quite a but actually.

OFF THE BENCH

C Bobby Wilson - The Angels are obsessed with defense and Bobby Wilson may be the only possibility that can provide a great defensive presence and not be a complete zero with the bat.

C Jake Fox - At the time of this writing, Fox was leading the majors in Spring Training homers and RBI. He could always hit, he just needs a position to play and the opportunity to get 400 or so at-bats. Buck Showalter might be the man to give it to him. If he gets 20-30 starts at catcher that would really rock.

1B Chris Davis - Every season he puts on a late season homer display and looks like the second coming in Spring Training.The question is always, is this the year? In 806 at-bats, Davis has 39 homers, which isn't too bad, it is the 278 strikeouts in that same period that kills him.

3B Eric Chavez - He's healthy and playing quite a bit in Spring Training. Damn, he used to be good. One of the best actually.

CR Jorge Vazquez - This big guy can hit. Only Eric Chavez is standing in his way. Chavez is bound to get hurt doing that.

2B Josh Barfield - He probably just lost a nice role to Luis Castillo.

SS Eduardo Nunez - Look him up, he's better than you think. He'll be stealing some bases for the Yankees this season.

MI Scott Sizemore - The Tigers were willing to call him the starter at second last year before Spring Training even started. They'll find a place for him this season.

OF Marcus Thames - He should play quite a bit with Gibbons considered the full time left fielder. Thames has stupid power.

OF Alejandro De Aza - He'll steal some bases, no matter what.

OF Mike Morse - He could always hit, he's just never been given the opportunity to put 500 at-bats together as a starter. He might win a starting role this spring, either way he's going to play this season, a lot.

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. - The Dodgers would be very happy if Gwynn won their center field job and pushed Kemp to left field. He's having a great spring, maybe the combination of Daddy and Donnie Baseball has got everything finally clicking. At worst you'll still collect a couple dozen steals.

UTL Mark Trumbo - He'll man first base while Kendry Morales is on the disabled list.

Rookie of the Year Candidates

C Carlos Santana - He does everything and he's a catcher. Bold Statement: Forget Buster Posey, this is your man. You're gonna love him.

C Jesus Montero - There is some doubt out there bout whether Montero can remain at the catcher position but it isn't coming from the higher ups in the Yankees organization. Mark Newman admitted to John Sickels that there was a point when Montero was indeed a bad catcher. However, he has worked very hard to learn the position and Newman believes he can be average at the position. With this guy's bat that is more than good enough, and fantastic news for Montero owners. And yes, he can play from the bench.

1B Brandon Belt - His excellent bat control and great coaching has helped him shoot through the Giants system. He may never return to the minors.

3B Lonnie Chisenhall - The cheapskate Indians just sent him back to the minors to save a few bucks but he'll be back really soon. He isn't Mike Schmidt but he should hit for average and power.

CR Mike Moustakas - Okay, he might be Mike Schmidt.

2B Jason Kipnis - The Indians are loaded with great talent again. Kipnis is another that could be playing for the tribe right now. Hopefully the Indians don't screw it up again.

SS Danny Espinosa - A potential 20/20 shortstop is definitely somthing we fantasy guys like to see. His batting average may not impress but it shouldn't kill you unless you have other BA-less players keeping you down.

MI Brett Lawrie - He has a solid chance to skip Triple-A ans start the season with the Toronto Blue Jays.

OF Domonic Brown - The broken hand may end up being the best thing to happen to Domonic Brown. Rather than face the pressure of winning a spot he can relax, rehab and then get a call-up after tearing up the minors for a few weeks more. It's all good.

OF Eric Thames - A toolsy outfield prospect for the Blue Jays. If Travis Snider fails to make it happen you could see him mid-season.

OF Brett Jackson - Blocked in the Cubs outfield for now. I love his bat and feel he's slightly underrated. Probably because he's a Cub.

OF Trayvon Robinson - He's a bit raw but has potential superstar written all over him. A faster Matt Kemp is my comparison.

OF Will Myers - If he was remaining a catcher for reals, he might be the number one prospect in baseball. Hell have to settle for top ten.

UTL Eric Hosmer - The 2011 Baseball Prospectus called him Batman. What else do you need to know?

SP Zach Britton - My favorite pitching prospect, an extreme groundball guy with a knack for striking guys out. It looks like he'll make the team out of spring training.

SP Michael Pineda - Pineda has the strikeouts and control to be on a bunch of sleeper lists. But the topper for me is the ability to also induce groundballs. No, I can't say it enough.

SP Jeremy Hellickson - Everyone loves him, he'll probably be over priced.

SP Kyle Drabek - Son of Doug and a future ace on his own merits.

SP Mike Minor - Picked because he would move quickly through the system, he turned out to be better than even the Braves expected.

SP Ivan Nova - Ivan Nova was 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 Triple-A starts in 2010. He is one of many young Yankees having a great Spring Training.

SP Mark Rogers - He has the stuff when healthy. It used to be better stuff but it's still plenty good. He won't begin the season with the big league team because he's been slow stretching out, but he'll be up soon if all goes well.

RP Jake McGee - He's begging to close, so far Joe Maddon is ignoring him.

RP Chris Sale - He won't get the first shot at the closer role but he should still have great stats. Just don't pay too much.

RP Craig Kimbrel - The new close for the Braves. You can't ignore the strikeout rate, he should be an exciting pitcher to own.

RP Aroldis Chapman - He won't close this year and he isn't likely to start either but he has the stuff for either job. The starting would take some time, the closing he's ready to do now.