Fantasy baseball owners love cheap starting pitching,
especially when that pitcher comes with ace potential. While Chris Tillman’s
days of being thought of as a frontline pitcher may be over, we probably have
not seen the best of him. But we did see a few hints at the end of the 2012
season. In Fantasy Baseball
nothing is as intriguing as a sleeper and Chris Tillman is emerging as a nice
one.
Chris Tillman was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the
second round of the 2006 draft. He was one of their better prospects when he
was traded along with Adam Jones and others to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.
This was a trade the Mariners surely came to regret. Jones has become a regular
in the Orioles lineup and is developing into a major star. Tillman was expected
to lead the Orioles great group of pitching prospects into a bright future for
Baltimore. That did not happen.
Instead of success, Tillman went back and forth from the
minors to the majors and back again. He was usually brilliant in the minors but
got bombed after his call-ups. This pattern repeated itself throughout 2009 and
2010. It only got worse in 2011 when the velocity which had been at 95-plus MPH
continued its decline into the 80s. He was now getting bombed just as bad in
the minors and the majors. The experts were speculating that he was hiding an
injury.
Before the 2012 season the Orioles hired Rick Peterson as
their director of pitching development. He would oversee the organization's
pitching development program and introduce the organization to biomechanical
analysis.
"So
when we have a lab in spring training, we get a guy in the bullpen at game
speed and you have markers on him so the equipment will pick up angular
measurements, linear measurements and rotational measurement. It's not video
analysis, but you are getting true measurements of things like stride length,
of external rotation, hip rotation velocities, the bend of knee at ball release…There
are 40-some measurements in this testing. When you get the results back, you
literally have the MRI of the pitching delivery. Then you can pinpoint very
specifically, is there a flaw, No. 1, and if there is a flaw or flaws, is it
mechanical, medical or conditioning? It's literally like ESPN's sports science
for pitching."
After a slow start to the 2012 season Tillman was scheduled
to meet
with Peterson in mid-May. They worked on adjusting some movement patterns
so he could be clean to the pitching rubber. They fixed the path and timing of
his leg kick and his hands so that he could stay on time and be in rhythm. This
allowed Tillman to better repeat his delivery. He now had a more consistent
release point and eventually his velocity started to rise again.
"His
throwing routine and his long-distance throwing, coupled with the ability to
repeat his delivery," Peterson said. "We have seen this over the
years with guys that have gone through this program. If you get a high-end
velocity talent like Chris, and then you get the delivery clean, you start to
see higher velocities and you see them maintained. (Miguel) Socolovich is a
prime example and Miguel Gonzalez is an example of guys that have made these
adjustments…If you looked at the delivery (of Tillman) prior to the ASMI
analysis and look at it now, it is very apparent what the ASMI research has
allowed us to identify to adjust."
Soon his ERA had dropped and his confidence was back. He was
called up to face the Seattle Mariners in July and was so pumped that he
pitched in the mid-90s and even hit 97mph. While his velocity did not stay at
that level he was back in the 91-94mph range and pitching effectively. His
swinging strike rate jumped from under six percent in 2011 to 8.1 percent in
2012. An increasing Swinging Strike Rate is an excellent indicator of a coming
increase in overall strikeout rate.
Tillman was slowed a bit at the very end of the season by
what was called right elbow stiffness. An MRI was performed which indicated his
Ulnar Nerve was inflamed but the MRI did not show any damage.
"I
thought it was real good news," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said.
"The exam, [team orthtopedist] Dr. Wilckens and the MRI showed the same
thing, just some inflammation at the most. All the structure is good, the
ligament everything. The ulnar nerve is a little imflamed, which is normal this
time of year."
Tillman finished the season with a 9-3 record and a 2.93 ERA
in 86 innings pitched in the majors after 89.1 pitched in the minors. His half
season was worth about $10-12 in a standard AL-only league. If you can get him
for that price it would appear to have some profit potential. It may not be
necessary. Early ADPs have Tillman going very late in drafts despite his recent
resurgence. This may change a bit after the various expert sites release their
magazines and draft guides.
The Dynasty Guru
(one of my new favorites and hopefully one of yours too) recently wrote an
article comparing Tillman to another pitcher who seemed to get his mojo back in
2012. Check
it out.
