2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria

To Have a Great Hot Stove Season

Head over to the RotoExperts.com baseball blog for my article on how to have a great hot stove season.

Reflect on last season

This very valuable step is often missed, especially when your fantasy baseball season ended in frustration. By looking back we can uncover where we went wrong. Did we take too many chances at the draft? Have you become predictable? Was that drunken Fourth of July trade you made with your weasel of a cousin a bad idea? Did you dump CC Sabathia on some “sucker” after his second terrible start in April? Making these self-evaluations, we can stop ourselves from making the same mistakes again.

We should also take the time to study our rivals. How did your league champion win? Does he make amazing trades? Did he rebuild for two years? Maybe your rival has a weakness for players on the Boston Red Sox that you can exploit. Does he have what looks like an unbeatable collection of young stars he can keep? Perhaps he exploited a loophole in the rules. We need to know our rivals as well as ourselves.

Fantasy Baseball Strategies That Don't Work

All of the strategies listed below have been successful in the past. I am not labeling these strategies as terrible but rather as dated. In long running leagues (epecially keeper leagues) with experienced, savy ownership the use, or attempted use of these strategies will not only bring you frustration but also an unsuccessful season. This is because the experienced fantasy owner studies the strategies of his opponents and shapes his own strategy to ensure the disruption of his rival's plans and the furtherance of his own. To help you counter these obstacles I've provided you with three things:

1. A description of the dated strategy and how it was supposed to work.
2. The methods your opponent can use to disrupt the strategy.
3. An alternative way to re-shape the strategy to make it workable again.

The L.I.M.A. Plan

The LIMA plan was a great strategy for a while. Ron Shandler created the LIMA plan but in reality there were lots of great players employing similar strategies for years before Ron popularized it. LIMA, stands for Low Investment Mound Aces. The idea was that in a typical 12 team, 4x4, only-league with a $260 budget you couldspend $200 to build a top ranked offense and devote just sixty dollars to your pitching staff with no more than half of that budget spent on saves. You would select the pitchers you purchased from a very select group that met certain criteria:

• K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better
• HR/9 of 1.0 or less
• K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better

At the core of the strategy was one of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball - Draft skills, not roles. Using this strategy allowed you to draft the best pitchers in the game before they became the expensive closers and starters that so many owners were spending so much of their budgets to acquire.

This plan was a huge smash and it quickly became all the rage in fantasy leagues, which is also when it became almost useless. With everyone chasing the same group of pitchers the untouted starters and middle relievers that were once atainable for $3-5 were now costing well into the double digits. Even owners who were not strictly using the strategy knew to bid up the owners utilizing the LIMA plan (which if you knew the plan was very easy to spot).

Even Ron Shandler has moved on from using the LIMA plan. There are ways to make the LIMA play workable if you are determined to use a version of it. One very simple way is to increase the budget allocated to pitching to an amount that allows you to draft a nice collection of the better LIMA pitchers but not so much that it seriously diminishes your offense. Another method is to add an Ace Pitcher (one that meets the LIMA criteria of course) to the mix. Adding an ace will not only (in theory) increase your pitching points but it will also throw your competitors off the scent when it comes to guessing your strategy.

Stars and Scrubs

This strategy has been around for almost as long as fantasy baseball has been played and there are several variations. The object of the strategy is to buy as many top tier stars as possible (both hitters and pitchers) until you only have one dollar left for each of your remaining roster spots. The idea is that a large collection of stars will carry your roster and that your scrubs give you the opportunity to get lucky.

The strategy gets beat all hollow when your opponents bid up the better scrubs and leave you with the true dregs of the league. The strategy also requires you to get lucky with both the emergence of scrubs and the continued health of your stars. The tougher your league the more difficult it is to recover from the loss of your $40 stud hitter or $25 ace starter or closer. This is also a very dangerous strategy for the novice owner to use, especially in a league full of sharks.

The plan can be salvaged by reserving enough of your budget to allocate $2-5 on those last few roster spots. Another variation is to buy just one stud per position. In other words one stud catcher, one stud corner, one stud infielder, a stud outfielder or two, an ace starter, and a top closer. If done carefully this can be done with plenty of money left to fill your other spots.

Spread the Risk

This strategy attempts to do exactly what its name says it will. In this strategy the owner will spend no more than $30 on any player. This way the owner can afford to buy lots of talent and will not need to roster many (if any) scrubs. If used intelligently this plan ensures that the owner will have a deep, balanced roster. This protects the owner from injury problems and slumping superstars.

The problem with this method is that it is very league dependent. Every league is different and some will pay different prices for certain types of players. Anyone who has ever opened a fantasy guide and scoffed at the idea of players being bought for mid-teen prices when in your league these guys go for $25-30 already know the problem. If mid-tier guys are selling for $25-30, then the true superstuds are going for just $35-40. Thus cutting off your bidding at $30 also cuts you off from all of the best quality talent.

You can use a version of this plan if you are very familiar with the spending habits of your fellow owners and you are confident in your ability to adjust your spending on the fly. The important thing is to getyour fair share of the available talent.

Punting Categories

By sacrificing a roto category such as saves or steals, the owner hopes to use the money budgeted to those categories to dominate the other ones. In the vast majority of cases the owner chooses saves, because closers are often overpriced contribute to fewer categories than starters and middle relievers.

This strategy often fails because the owners who utilize it dump the category during the draft and fail to collect enough points in the other categories to win their leagues, though it is very good at placing owners within striking distance.

Making punting a useful strategy is very simple. Rather than dump a category for the entire season, just dump it at the draft. After the draft the owner should use every available resource to find the stats he ignored during the draft. By constantly monitoring the waiver wire and taking advantage of trade opportunities its possible to do quite well in the neglected category and thus have a shot at winning the league.

One Dollar Catchers

A very common strategy in fantasy baseball drafts is too ignore the more expensive catchers in favor of drafting two $1 catchers (or waiting until the end of the draft) that receive very few at-bats. The idea behind the strategy is that so few catchers are productive (and usually even the productive ones do not compare to the comparably priced outfielders or corner infielders) that the money it takes to buy the very best at the position is better spent on more productive players at other positions. And further that with not enough catchers to go around very few of the other teams would have strong catching anyway.

While it sounds okay, essentially dumping the catching positions, it creates two holes in your fantasy lineup. The owner with strong hitting from the catcher spots has an offensive advantage that can often make a huge difference in the final standings.

Very carefully scouting catchers can usually uncover productive catchers for bargain prices. last season Ryan Doumit and Kelly Shoppach were draft day bargains that carefully scouting may have revealed. This season Jesus Flores and Pablo Sandoval may be huge bargains at the catcher position. MLB always puts added focus on weak positions which ensures that eventually the development cycle will result in a better crop of catchers.

NEXT: On Sunday read why Buying Low and Selling High is not as simple as it sounds.

Nick Swisher Joins the Yankees

Check out my RotoExperts.com blog for the fantasy spin on Nick Swisher joining the New York Yankees.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday, center fielder and first baseman Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the New York Yankees for utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Check in late tonight (maybe the morning) for a article on Fantasy Baseball Strategies.

How to Win More Frequently: Part Three

Do Not Pay Inflated Prices

Yes. In keeper leagues there is a sort of inflation caused by under-priced keepers. But that doesn’t mean you should pay $45 for Roy Oswalt or $65 for Albert Pujols. If these sort of pricing mistakes happen in your league make sure these players end up on another team. In leagues with crazy inflated prices for superstars the inflation usually goes away quickly leaving the next class of players at bargain prices. As obvious as it seems even some of the best players get caught up in bidding and bid too much for the very best players and their favorite players. And if you think the inflation on top players is bad you should check out the inflation on your leagues favorite sleepers. A few of them will obviously work out in most leagues but for every Josh Johnson at $2 there is a Ryan Zimmerman at $25. Do not be the one who paid $25 for Ryan Zimmerman. There are just far too many safer choices to potentially waste your available cash on a player with no track record. I know it is difficult and I am not actually saying I would absolutely never do it myself but you need to choose your battles and as the second rule insists have a solid reason for doing something so illogical. Maybe you’re spending $25 on Zimmerman because you plan to hold on to him for three years and you project him to be at value in the second year and below value in the third. Get it? Base the prices you pay on your actual projected values and not market values.

How to Win More Often: Part Two

Re-Building Is for Losers and Incompetents

Or Don’t Give Up, Don’t Ever Give Up...

You are not running the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Kansas City Royals. You do not need a five-year plan to recover from a bad fantasy season. A collection of 37 minor leaguers isn’t going to help you either. Should you find yourself in possession of a fantasy team with few or even no keepers you have better options. In auctions spend a great portion of your money on the best players available. After you have bought every star player you can afford you can then start working to acquire whatever injured but returning stars or sleepers you can fit on your roster. Do not be afraid to have a few one dollar players on your roster. When I have weak rosters I often plan to have a one dollar catcher, a one dollar middle infielder, a one dollar outfielder and two or three one dollar relievers. You never know when those one dollar guys are going to turn into Gary Matthews Jr., Mike Cuddyer, Jose Lopez and Scott Proctor.

As soon after your auction as possible start scouring the waiver wire for any talent that might have been missed at your draft. Examine every early call up and if they look promising consider picking them up to replace your one dollar guys. Look for teams willing to trade a quality but boring veteran or two and something for one of your stars and a one dollar guy. For example in 2007 you might buy Derrek Lee coming off his injury for a discounted price lets say $32. In an NL-only league 5x5 in 2005 Lee was worth roughly $50. Let’s also pretend that he spends the first two months of 2007 hitting as he did in 2005. Not only would you have a good potential keeper in Lee but he’s also excellent trade bait. A team sorely in need of homers and RBI might trade you $25 Nomar Garciaparra, $25 Randy Winn and minor leaguer Dexter Fowler for Derrek Lee and your $1 Gabe Gross. Then you can flip Dexter Fowler and Randy Winn to one of the teams which has an owner in love with prospects (every league has one, if you don’t know who it is it might be you) for $30 Mike Cameron and a 2008 minor league pick. There are endless variations and scenarios but you get the idea. In this case you would have turned Lee and Gabe Gross into Nomar Garciaparra, Mike Cameron and a draft pick. You might be surprised how much never giving up and always trying to improve your team for the present can move you up the standings.

How To Win More Often: Part One

I am going to assume that most of the people reading this article are not fantasy baseball newbies. There are lots of articles out there that give what I call the basic rules for fantasy baseball success. These include ideas like “Know Your League Rules”, “Be Prepared”, “Never Draft One Category Players”, “Stay Active and Make Trades” and “Don’t Panic!” all of which are solid ideas especially for beginners. But the rules I’m about to present are those that experienced and excellent players instinctively follow when they are not purposely breaking them. For the Advanced Fantasy Baseball Player the rules are a little more sophisticated and not following them can lead to mediocre performances from even the most knowledgeable player in a tough league. This is going to be a series of articles on How to Win More Often.

Trust Your Sources but Not Overly Much

You might subscribe to BaseballHQ.com buy the annual Fantasy Baseball Forecaster and believe that Ron Shandler and his cronies are the gods of this game. I wouldn’t argue much with you. But even the best of sites miss things and make mistakes. HQ for example has their system for analyzing players and they do not vary from it. I am not suggesting that they should but rather thinking about the flaws in operating that way such as missing players that do not fit their optimum BPI profile (or go radically against it) players like Alfonzo Soriano (pre-2006 anyway), Chien-Ming Wang or Jon Garland. This is why I suggest you not only develop a collection of good sources but also do some work yourself, which leads me to our next topic.

Have Solid Reasoning for Every Move You Make

Have you ever made a trade and looked back at it a few weeks later (or even a couple of days later) and not been able to figure out just what it was you were thinking? I think we all have at one time or another but it does not need to be that way. Every draft pick, auction bid, waiver claim, trade offer, trade acceptance or roster change of any kind should be preceded by a period of consideration wherein you measure the impact such a move will have on your roster by running it through whatever system you use whether it is comparing recent projections, looking at recent BPI’s, getting the opinion of your favorite advisor(s), just a very strong hunch or all of the above. The important thing is to actually understand your own reasoning before every transaction that you make. This will not prevent you from making bad moves but it will make it less likely and it might keep you from spending any time banging your head against a wall.

Look for more guidelines from now until draft day.

Winning Head-to-Head Leagues

I don't play in many head-to-head leagues. This is why I'm overjoyed to recommend Winabango's article on winning such a league.

A sample:

Know you opponent’s team schedule and find a weakness - Let’s say that you are going up against a team with 4 closers and you have 2. On the surface, saves looks like a lost category. Look at the opponent’s closers though. Are any of them going up against each other during the week? Are any of them going up against your closers? If he has 2 closers facing each other, and 1 facing one of yours, then the odds are that your 2 closers should compete in the saves category that week due to the limited amount of chances his will get. In this scenario, check the waiver wire for an additional closer to try to beat him, or overwhelm him with the other pitching categories.

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The Stock Exchange written for Sportsblurb.com

The Stock Exchange

By Jon Williams, Pinch-Hitting For Christopher Meyer

06/24/06

Words and Actions

In baseball, his words are considered worse than others' actions...

Ozzie Guillen has a big mouth.

It takes very little prodding to get him to rant about whatever it is that might be on his mind. Obviously this week it was his hatred – I don’t think you can call it anything else – for Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti. You only have to read Mariotti’s latest column to discover the genesis of this feud. Mariotti considers it his responsibility to publicly call Guillen on his every indiscretion. Guillen will tell you and anyone else who cares to listen that he does not actually have a problem with this. The problem in Guillen’s mind is that Mariotti refuses to come to the ballpark and face him as all the beat writers do.

Guillen might have a point if Mariotti was a beat writer, but he is not. Mariotti is a columnist that has the job we all wish we did. He goes to the NBA finals and flies from there to the next big event and from there to the next. Mariotti, in a rather wussy fashion, claims that the Chicago White Sox clubhouse is too dangerous a place for him to risk showing up. Of course, I am sure if reporters were being beat up after games we would have heard about it by now.

Many people will tell you that his feud with Mariotti is not the story. Instead they point to Ozzie Guillen’s use of the word “fag” in his tirade against Mariotti as the more serious problem. Read just about any article about Guillen from last week and you’ll see it suggested that Guillen be suspended for various lengths of time – Mariotti thinks two weeks – lose his job, be fined significantly, and on and on. Why? Because Guillen used what is considered a homophobic slur.

The problem with such thinking is that Guillen was not trying to call Jay Mariotti gay or imply that anything is wrong with being gay. It’s a stupid thing to say but it doesn’t make him a homophobe.

Bud Selig gave Guillen a stern talking to and has ordered him into sensitivity training. It can’t hurt, but I do not think sensitivity training is going to get at Guillen’s real problem. Guillen has a couple of problems I see as far more serious. First, his aggressive attitude that considers beaning players during a game the right thing to do and can get you thrown off the team if you don’t share it is a major one. And, secondly, his obvious inability to think before saying something stupid or to simply shut up when he does not have anything good to say is a problem. I won’t hold my breath waiting for baseball to address these issues.

Guillen’s lack of control is nothing compared to the lack displayed by Phillies starter Brett Myers. The young Philadelphia pitcher allegedly punched his wife in the face on Friday just outside of Fenway Park in front of multiple witnesses. Boston Police responded to a 911 call and found Myers’ wife, Kim Wickman, to have signs of abuse on the left side of her face. Myers was found nearby and was arrested and charged with domestic abuse. Myers was then bailed out by his wife but ordered not to have any contact with her unless at her suggesting. Myers at the time of this writing was still scheduled to make his Saturday start against the Red Sox. If only a man hitting his wife could summon the same media outrage that using bad language does, the world would be a better place.

On the lighter side of this week’s baseball news we were blessed by the return of several players to active duty. The return of Roger Clemens as a starter for the Houston Astros was the biggest story. ESPN was kind enough to broadcast the game so we could all get a glimpse of one of the greatest and most popular pitchers of all time. Clemens was not spectacular in his return but he was solid. His control obviously wasn’t what he would have liked, but he allowed just two runs in five innings and lately the Astros would kill for such quality. They did not have to kill though; they just forked over a prorated $22 million dollars.

We also witnessed the return of Albert Pujols to active duty this. ESPN was nice enough to show us Pujols’ first at-bat, which resulted in a long fly-ball. Joe Morgan accurately pointed out that Pujols’ form did not seem quite right. Pujols seemed to swing with his arms rather than put any torque on his newly recovered oblique muscles. Any doubts raised by his lack of hits on Thursday were erased though by his 4-for-4 performance with a home run on Friday night; so maybe it is only a matter of time before he finds his form again.

As if those were not enough, Thursday also featured the return of A.J. Burnett to active duty. Burnett looked effective and relaxed in his return. Burnett went six innings on just 91 pitches. He allowed just two runs on five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts. With time, he should build his endurance back up and be the fine addition the Blue Jays thought they signed in December.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

The Numbers Game written for Sportsblurb.com

The Cincinnati Reds were just 1.5 games out of the wild card position when they made the following trade with the Washington Nationals:

OF Austin Kearns

SS Felipe Lopez

RHP Ryan Wagner

For

RHP Gary Majewski

LHP Bill Bray

SS Royce Clayton

INF Brendan Harris

RHP Daryl Thompson

The first reaction of almost every baseball fan on the planet was to ask if Alfonso Soriano was missing from the list of players that the Nationals were sending over. I was flipping to ESPN2 between innings of the Red Sox/ Athletics game and I swear I thought I wasn’t seeing the whole trade on the bottom line. The Reds should have gotten a lot more for their starting right fielder and their starting shortstop. That they threw in a former top closer prospect in Ryan Wagner is just plain ridiculous. The problem is the Reds didn’t accurately read the market value for the players they traded. But as bad as this trade is rightfully considered by most it doesn’t really hurt the playoff chances of the Reds. Seriously, for what they sent to the Nationals they could have had Alfonso Soriano in my opinion. But despite their bad judgment the Reds may have accomplished their goal of improving and preparing for the playoffs.

Austin Kearns is easily replaced by either Ryan Freel or Chris Denorfia. Kearns is still just 26 years old and having his first healthy season in a decade but it doesn’t appear that his bat will ever again be considered the equal of Adam Dunn’s as so many projected years ago. But he was having a solid season for the Reds. Thus far Kearns has been hitting a respectable .272/.352/.489 and fielding his position well. The plan for now seems to be Denorfia in right and Freel continuing as the utility guy. Denorfia has been back and forth between Cincy and AAA Louisville which is never good for the numbers. Denorfia hits for a good average and knows how to get on base. He has a career line of .263 .364/.421in the majors through 2005 and a line of .286/.371/.432 in the minors. He’ll never match the power potential Kearns has displayed but his hustling scrappy style will probably go over well with Reds fans. If Denorfia gets 250 at-bats in the second half of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit close to .300 with 8-10 homers and 8-10 stolen bases. The Reds think of Denorfia as a leadoff hitter and he could score a lot of runs in front of Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

Felipe Lopez has a superior bat to Royce Clayton but Clayton is a far more consistent defender. Clayton hasn’t been a total void with the bat this year and a small jump might be possible in the more hitter friendly GABP. But is the difference in defense worth the exchange of bats? Maybe. Lopez has a .959 FPCT, an RF of 3.98 and a ZR of .785 which compared to Clayton’s .970 FPCT, 4.37 RF and .829 ZR make him look pretty bad. Lopez has a hitting line of .268/.355/.394 and Clayton a line of .269/.315/.348. That isn’t a difference that’ll make you forget the defensive gap. Clayton will play everyday as long as he fields his position and doesn’t completely embarass himself at the plate. But my new favorite mid-season fantasy sleeper may put Clayton on the bench eventually. William Bergolla was one of the Reds top ten prospects in 2005 according to Baseball America. Go ahead and make your favorite joke about the Cincinnati farm system, I’ll wait... Done? Bergolla isn’t any thing amazing with the bat but he is an excellent fielder whose only real flaw in the field is an inability to stay healthy. His bat is probably only slightly better than Clayton’s at best but he makes up for it with vastly better speed. Bergolla led the Reds system three years in a row in stolen bases. He stole 52 bases in 2003 and was caught 18 times. The Reds have wanted to move him to shortstop in the past but his poor health got in the way. If the Brandon Phillips trade hadn’t worked out so well he’d probably be the second baseman right now. If you can stash him away for a buck or two you might find yourself in possession of a cheap source of stolen bases. Bergolla has a career minor league line of .289/.343/.377.

Ryan Wagner has been pretty terrible at AAA this year. There is the very real possibility that he isn’t yet recovered from shoulder surgery. If Wagner was the reliever the Reds were hoping they had two years back they may not have felt pressure to make a trade like this. Gary Majewski is probably an average major league reliever but he has a rubber arm and will take the ball everyday of the week if asked. Majewski will become a key set-up man for the new Reds closer Eddie Guardado. But the key acquisition for the Reds is Bill Bray. Bray was the 13^th overall pick in the 2004 draft. He is a for real prospect. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and a low 80’s slider and can get outs effectively with either pitch. After signing he was sent to the Arizona Fall league where he pitched 16 innings and struck out 16 batters. Bray has been projected as a future major league closer and could potentially fill that role this year if Guardado’s injury problems prevent him from pitching effectively. By adding Bray, Majewski and Guardado the Reds bullpen is already leaps and bounds better than what they suffered through in the first half of the season.

In my opinion Wayne Krivsky is attempting to duplicate his success with Brandon Phillips by acquiring Brendan Harris. It isn’t a bad gamble to make. Harris hasn’t really been given the shot he probably deserved. When Harris was with the Cubs I heard him compared to Albert Pujols. Yeah, that’s ridiculous but Harris could still become a decent infielder with some pop in his bat. Picking up guys like Harris is exactly what a team with a thin farm system should do. Hell, they should make a collection of failed, stalled and ignored prospects in AAA. I don’t really expect he’ll play much more for the Reds than he did with the Nationals this year but 2007 is always a possibility. Rich Aurillia can’t hang around forever can he? Daryl Thompson is another shot in the dark. Thompson is a 20-year old pitching prospect that has drawn comparisons to Oil Can Boyd. While he has talent he is presently recovering from a shoulder injury. He also hasn’t advanced past A-ball which makes him hard to project.

The Reds are going to need all of these guys to work out as planned to have any hope of winning the public perception of this trade. That probably won’t happen. But if the Reds make the playoffs and players like Bray, Majewski and Denorfia play key roles then they might be forgiven.

Treasure Hunting written for Sportsblurb.com

Have you ever been broke? Have you ever been so broke that you go searching through the pockets of clothing you haven’t worn in months for forgotten dollar bills? Ever tip over the sofa hoping some loose change might fall out. Ever hit the jackpot doing so? I’ve done all of the above at one time or another. When you desperately need to find a player on the waiver wire, when you pull out your 1993 Baseball America Prospect Guide you’re doing the fantasy equivalent of digging in the cushions. Hey, there’s no shame in it. Finding hidden gold is what treasure hunting is all about isn’t it? This is the nothing to lose version of treasure hunting. These guys are gold for 2007 but passing the canary test in 2006 will require you have patience and nothing to lose.

Rich Hill SP Cubs

Rich Hill has not been impressive in his major league stints thus far. Believe it or not this may be to his benefit. Young pitchers in Chicago tend to get hurt. Yeah, I’m blaming it on Dusty Baker. Here’s the Jon Williams Guarantee, Dusty Baker will not be manager of the Cubs in 2007. If he is I’ll eat Trot Nixon’s nasty old baseball cap. Jim Hendry has announced that Baker will finish the 2006 season. GMs don’t make announcements like that unless the manager is in trouble. Dusty Baker is in trouble. Dusty Baker ruined Kerry Wood and Mark Prior; he deserves to be in trouble. Here’s the advice Baker has for Rich Hill according to mlb.com:

"He just has to pretend he's in the Minor Leagues," Baker said. "Sometimes you have to trick yourself. Just tell yourself it's the same game. You've got better hitters, quality hitters, but it's basically the same."

Rich has been dominating in the minors for a couple of seasons now. Extremely dominate. He is 26 years old now so if he doesn’t dominate in the minors he gets released. But Hill hasn’t been just good enough to keep pitching, he’s been outstanding.

2006 AAA Iowa: 100IP/ 15GS/ 1.80era/ 1.03WHIP/ 1.94BB9/ 1.52HR9/ 12.74K9

2006 MLB CHC: 19.1IP/ 4GS/ 9.31era/ 1.97WHIP/ 6.46BB9/ 1.14HR9/ 7.99K9

He’s done this for two seasons now. His 135K are leading the Pacific Coast League. When Hill is in the majors for some reason he completely changes his attitude towards pitching. In the minors he dares guys to hit his best stuff. In the majors he becomes a nibbler trying to pitch on the edges of the plate. As soon as someone clues him in that it is okay to let it loose in the majors he’s going to have success.

Hill has an unhittable 12-to-6 curveball. That combined with a low 90's fastball that he's learned to control (he attributes it to greater mental focus, the coaches say he cleaned up his delivery - whatever, as long as he has, right?) His change-up is constantly improving. And he's a lefty, which guarantees the opportunity will be there. Like I said he's 26 so the time is now. The Cubs should give Hill the chance to finish the season in the majors. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and the Cubs stink and have nothing to lose. It may take him a few starts to find himself so be patient. I could make you a long list of starters that stunk in their first few outings in the majors.

Shin-SooChoo OF Indians

You can call him Big League Choo. Choo, whom the Indians acquired in the Ben Broussard trade, will start in right field against right-handers. Casey Blake will play first against right-handers. Choo doesn’t have amazing power but he seems to be developing adequate power. Adequate power with his ability to get on base, his good speed and very good base stealing ability should make him a very valuable fantasy player. If he’s available grab him. The Mariners only gave him 18 at-bats in the majors.

2006 AAA Tacoma: 375AB/ 70R/ 121H/ 21dbls/ 3tpls/ 13HR/ 48RBI/ 26SB/ 4CS/ .323/.393/.499

The only downside I can see is his lack of experience. The Indians are another team without much to lose. The team is hoping that Choo will allow them to move Grady Sizemore down a bit in the order. Sizemore owners will hate hearing that as it will likely cut into his stolen base totals. Jhonny Peralta owners can be happy that Mark Shapiro didn’t get his first choice for Broussard, SS Erick Aybar.

My bonus nugget for reading this far is Joe Inglett. The man has no real power or base stealing ability. He’s a destitute man’s version of Wade Boggs. He can hit for average and is pretty fair at getting on base. He has a minor league career line of .303/.379/.419.

2006 AA Akron: 64AB/ 20R/ 33H/ 9dbls/ 3HR/ 9RBI/ 7SB/ 3CS/ 11BB/ 4SO .516/.587/.767

2006 AAA Buffalo: 157AB/ 21R/ 47H/ 7dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 13RBI/ 3SB/ 2CS 13BB/ 24SO

.299/.358/.389

2006 MLB CLE: 46AB/ 8R/ 15H/ 2dbls/ 2trpls/ 1HR/ 6RBI/ 1SB/ 0CS/ 4BB/ 8SO .326/.380/.522

The Indians are looking for a spark and Inglett is providing it right now. The Indians see him as a future utility infielder but with Ronnie Belliard nursing his hamstring injury Inglett is getting an opportunity to prove he can handle full-time responsibility.

Last Week Revisited

Last week Mark looked at Stephen Drew and Jason Windsor. Jason Windsor blew his rotation opportunity by allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs in just 2 innings. Windsor was sent back to the minors and replaced on the roster by LHP Randy Keisler. Windsor still has a future but the A’s are in a dog fight for the AL West and they can’t afford to develop pitchers right now.

Stephen Drew is probably making Craig Counsel the Arizona version of Wally Pip. Thus far Drew is hitting .302/.348/.512 in 43 at-bats. If you didn’t pick him up it’s too late now.

Burning Up the Bases written for Sportsblurb.com

Burning Up the Bases

By Jon Williams

08/07/06

Every fantasy baseball owner has a need for speed. Baseball’s base stealers have always been a precious commodity, and they have grown even more precious with the proliferation of the so-called Moneyball mindset. I do think we’re about to see a return to a more exciting brand of baseball. The vast majority of baseball teams – especially the bad ones – seem to annually attempt to mimic the characteristics of the best teams. This year, one of the better teams is without a doubt the New York Mets. And the Mets, as you may know or can guess by my clever lead in, use the stolen base as a key part of their offense.

What you as a fantasy owner must do is spot the stolen base talent being underutilized by teams that might use a similar style of offense in 2007. This week, I’m going to give you the key players on the three teams I can see giving the stolen base a bigger part in their game plans next year. Am I a great guy or what?

A little less running into walls and a little more running on the basepaths would do wonders for Aaron Rowand's fantasy owners...

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Aaron Rowand

2) Michael Bourne

3) Shane Victorino

He has not shown it this season, but Aaron Rowand can steal bases. He is not a blazing fast, Carl Crawford-type, but he has displayed the ability to take bases at a good percentage. The Phillies are almost guaranteed to have a new manager in 2007, and whoever is running the show next year would be wise to use some of the speed he will have on his roster, as well as utilize the base-stealing ability of almost everyone on the projected 2007 Major League roster. If that turns out to indeed be the case, Rowand could easily be a 20/20 guy in 2007.

Michael Bourn is the next home grown Philadelphia star. At the University of Houston, Bourn honed his ability to hit for average, get on base, and steal bases. As the 2003 fourth round pick of the Phillies little has changed. With Bobby Abreu traded to the Yankees, and Pat Burrell rumored to be following him in the off-season, the opportunity will be there for Bourn to claim a spot in the outfield in 2007. Bourn has a batting line of .288/.388/.396 in the minors and would be a very dynamic #2 hitter behind star shortstop Jimmy Rollins and might even push Rollins to the #2 spot. If Bourn makes the team and does what he has shown the ability to do, the Phillies will be a very exciting team to watch.

He may not be as flashy as Michael Bourn, but Shane Victorino has probably already earned a spot on the 2007 major league roster of the Phillies. His .310/.377/.534 showing at Triple-A Scranton has already earned him a call-up to fill the spot vacated by Bobby Abreu. He’s off to a respectable .267/.330/.424 start in 191 Major League at-bats this season. He has only stolen two bases without being caught but could easily steal 20 bases if given the opportunity.

Kansas City Royals

1) Alex Gordon

2) Joey Gathright

3) Esteban German

The Kansas City Royals have a much brighter future than most believe. Their minor league system may not be deep at the moment but they have a few guys that project as the heart of the order for the next decade. Next year, the fantasy baseball magazines will tell you all you need to know about Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, and Justin Huber. But the star of the Kansas City system by far will be third baseman Alex Gordon. The former Nebraska star has been compared to Chipper Jones with his beautiful swing and his projecting to hit for both power and average. Gordon already shows solid plate discipline, and many believe he should be in the Majors already. As of this writing, he is at Double-A Wichita, batting .316/.416/.559 with 20 home runs in just 383 at-bats. I know what you’re wondering, though – can he steal bases? He presently has 20 stolen bases and has been caught just three times. Gordon is the infield version of Carlos Beltran – yes, he is really that good.

Joey Gathright is not a great hitter; he can, however, use his speed and slap-hitting ability to hit for a respectable average, as he has shown he can do in the minors. He’s hit .316 in over 1,200 minor league at-bats with a .390 on-base percentage. Most importantly, the man is blazing fast. He has stolen 165 bases and been caught stealing 50 times in his Minor League career. That’s just over 40 stolen bases for every season spent in the minors, and he has made spent some time in the Majors just wasting away on the bench or he might have stolen even more.

I really hope that the Royals replace manager Bob Boone, as he has made one of the best performers on his team almost irrelevant. This season, 26-year-old Esteban German has batted .321/.430/.378, but cannot seem to get at-bats ahead of 36-year-old Mark Grudzielanek (.286/.325/.394 in 388 at-bats). A team like the Royals needs to give at-bats to the players that can play a part in the future of the team, rather than ancient mediocrities that will be here on the roster for one season at the most. German has the speed and the know-how to steal 30 to 40 bases. All he needs is an opportunity.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Chris Duffy

2) Nate McLouth

3) Jason Bay

Chris Duffy was supposed to be the starting center fielder for the Pirates in 2006. He lost the opportunity by hitting just .230/.288/.344 in 61 spring training at-bats. Duffy did not respond well to the May demotion and refused the assignment for almost a month. He did finally report and got to work on the things lacking in his game. At Triple-A Indianapolis, Duffy has been pretty impressive in 116 at-bats with a .349/.415/.509 batting line with 13 stolen bases and he has been caught just three times. Duffy was recalled after the Craig Wilson trade and has not done much yet, but the Pirates seem to have more faith this time around. Duffy has a career minor league line of .299/.354/.415; if he could come close to that in the Majors, 25-30 stolen bases a season is a distinct possibility.

Nate McLouth is similar to Duffy, but has better speed, slightly better power, and is two years younger at just 24-years-old. McLouth has spent the entire 2006 season in the Majors and should be in line for the starting right field job in 2007 when Jeromy Burnitz finally departs. For the season, McLouth is batting just .228/.292/.360 in a sporadic 250 at-bats as an occasional starter and defensive replacement. McLouth still has the spark that won him most exciting player votes in the minors. In a full season of at-bats, McLouth could steal 40 bases by managing just a league average on-base percentage.

He will not come cheap but Jason Bay is a great base stealer. In the Majors, Bay has attempted just 36 steals and been caught just eight times. In the Minors, Bay was a 30-40 steal guy. That ability is still there; it just needs to be tapped. By increasing his stolen base attempts, Bay could become the most valuable fantasy outfielder in almost any style league. For the Pirates, something as simple as a change in managerial philosophy could change them from one of the more boring offensive teams in the league to one of the most exciting. The Pirates want desperately to be the Oakland Athletics but they just don’t have the personnel and do not seem to grasp how to acquire it. I’m sure Billy Beane wouldn’t share this with the Pirates but I will – the secret of Moneyball was not acquiring on-base specialists; it was making the best use of the players available to you. The Pirates have speedy defensive slap hitters; design the offense around them and it might actually work for both the Pirates and fantasy owners everywhere.

Feedback can be sent to jonwilliams@sportsblurb.com.

Preparing-For-the-2006-Fantasy-Season-Part-Two

Felipe Lopez probably came cheap in 2005 and makes a great keeper.

If you followed the direction given in Part One of Preparing for thr 2006 Fantasy Season you have a grasp on two things. The talent on your roster and its general worth to others in your league and what sort of talent the other teams in your league are holding. With this information you're armed to take the next step.

Trading to Increase the Talent Level of Your Keepers

In order to trade effectively you must always have three things in mind:

1. The strengths and weaknesses of your present group of keepers. This means you know the dollar value of your players for the next season (an approximate level if you haven't found projections you like or prepared your own). The positions where you have good talent you can keep and the positions where you don't have good value. You also want a general idea of the auction value of your keepers. You need this information so that you don't trade away more value than you mean to trade and so you know how much value you should expect in return.
2. The needs, strengths and weaknesses of the team who holds the player you've targeted. It is never to your long-term advantage to rip off another team. While you should target the players that best suit your needs you also need to keep in mind the needs of the team you're dealing with. If at all possible you want to offer your opponent players he needs. If you can't actually offer what a team needs you should be sure to offer significant value in return. You should always consider whether or not you'd do the same trade if you were in the shoes of your opponent. It isn't always necessary that you would do the trade in reverse but you must be able to see why your opponent would do the trade and what value they'll receive in return.
   
3. How the trade effects your talent level, your draft budget and your draft strategy. Before making any trade you should have at least a general idea of your draft or auction strategy and how the player or players you're seeking fit into that plan. You want to be sure that you are getting a player or players that will actually help develop your strategy rather than just adding players at good values. For example, Mark Buerle at $22 may be a great deal in your league but if your strategy is basically LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) you'll actually be wrecking your own plan. In the same league Hideki Matsui at $24 may not be a great bargain but its a player that will actually fit into your plan and that is your primary goal.

Before you make any deals you should rank your keepers in order of value. You want to know which players fit best into your strategy and which should be traded if at all possible. If you can keep eight players and you have twelve quality keepers then #'s 8,9,10,11 and 12 become the players you'd most like to trade. If you can't improve over your eighth keeper then you shouldn't attempt to trade but rare is the occassion where you can't trade and make yourself better. Also, if you've somehow ended up with four great second basemen trading at least one of those should be a priority.

Here are three tips for making trading easy:

1. Don't bother with lowball offers. Lowball offers are insulting. When your opponent becomes insulted two things happen. He wants to get the better of you and he becomes resistant to your efforts to trade with him no matter how reasonable your subsequent offers become. A good way to judge is to measure the amount of profit your end of the trade provides against the amount of profit on your opponent's end. Don't offer any trades that are more than 10% in your advantage.
   
2. Make offers your opponent can actually accept. While you're offering fair value consider if your opponent can actually fit the players onto his roster of keepers. You maybe able to offer your opponent six players with a profit of $30 total for a one player who is $30 undervalue but your opponent gets nothing out of this deal but clogged roster spots. Also, don't offer your opponent a corner if he already has three corners that are obviously better values. Taking your opponents needs into consideration will always make trading easier.
3. Don't be afraid to overpay if you can do it safely. If you have an abundance of quality keepers and cannot use them all in fair trades, overpaying to get a player that may not have been available otherwise is a very acceptable if underused tactic. Just take care that you don't make your leaguemate a better deal than necessary or that making the trade makes your opponent's roster stronger than yours. When you will obviously have to overpay it may be wise to make your first offer one that cannot be refused because it is so obviously in his favor.

I apologize about the large gap between posts lately. Real life intervened and made posting difficult. But I should be back on a regular schedule from this point forward. Thanks for sticking around. Peace.

How To Prepare For the 2006 Season Part One

Are you ready to start preparing for the 2006 Fantasy Baseball Season? I hope so because you may well fall behind your team mates if you aren't. Lucky for you I'm here to provide you with the help you need. So lets get it started.

The absolute first step is to analyze your team. No one should know your team better than you do. Did you do well last season? If so why? If not why? Understanding why and how you finished the way you did will absolutely help you up your performance in 2006. If you're already doing this you're on your way to success. Here are some questions you want to ask yourself about the team you ended the 2005 season holding:

• How many players can you keep?
• How many players do you have that can be kept?
• Of the players you own that can be kept how many are at what seem to be bargain prices?
• Do you have more quality keepers than you can bring with you into 2006?
• Of your high priced players are any of them tradeable? How do you know?
• Of the players you don't consider keepable, have you researched them thoroughly?
• If you have researched them thoroughly and yet still won't keep them, might they be desirable by someone else?
• Have you researched the players you do plan to keep?
• If you haven't done all these things why not?
  

To help you out with this I'm going to use a friend's team as an example. He finished in first place of a very competitive AL Only League. At the end of the season there were eight teams in contention for six spots. This is a twelve team league. Okay here are the Blue Sox:

Hitters: (2005 values according to the amazing Budman)

John Buck 11 (4.10) - Buck has power and thats about it.
Jason Varitek 10B (15.71) - Varitek had a good year, but his contract is up.
Carlos Pena 18 (5.38) - After a horrible start he was worth 13.29 in the 2nd half.
Chris Shelton 0 (13.73) - Shelton was another 2nd half stud worth 19.69.
Ronnie Belliard 8A (15.52) - Frankly i didn't expect him to repeat his success in 2004 but he did it.
Placido Polanco 60F (12.53) - The Tigers were rocking in the 2nd half.
Omar Infante 12 (2.65) - Well not everyone...Omar was worth 1.29 in the 2nd.
Orlando Hudson 10B (11.67) - Hudson was hurt late but not too seriously.
Alex Rodriguez 46B (46.71) - The MVP was also the fantasy MVP.
Michael Young 11B (31.70) - Young had an amazing year but can he repeat?
Mark Kotsay 14A (16.33) - One of the most underrated players in baseball.
Lew Ford 26 (11.80) - Lew Ford has lots of competition to deal with in 2006.
Manny Ramirez 39A (34.22) - Manny started slow but was his usual self when it was all over.
Johnny Damon 26A (28.40) - Damon was amazing until nagging injuries took a toll late in the year.
Vladimir Guerrero 42A (33.22) - Not an amazing year by his standards but still elite.

Reserved Hitters:

Bronson Sardinha 10M (minors) - This Yankee prospect repeated AA and had an off year.
Juan Gonzalez 6 (-4.30) - As usual Juan Gonzalez couldn't stay healthy.
Val Majewski 5M (minors) - Val is building a following.
Jason Botts 0 (-3.48) Botts had a great year for AAA Oklahoma but can't be kept.

Pitchers:

John Lackey 10A (19.05) - Lackey is an underrated star in the making.
Danys Baez 22 (18.94) - His K/9 keeps declining but he is an in demand player in MLB.
Jesse Crain 10 (9.50) - He might grab a closer role yet.
Paul Byrd 9 (17.13) - Another underrated stud pitcher.
Mariano Rivera 28B (28.92) - Typical Mo, studly as usual.
Scott Shields 1B (14.0) - A great reliever can be just as valuable as a starter.
Joe Borowski 15F (-1.98) - A disappointing year for a guy named Joe.
Barry Zito 25 (21.22) - Zito is solid, a rock for your staff.
Mike Mussina 25 (11.04) - Mike needs to get his act together or he'll lose his spot to Aaron Small. J/K
Scott Sauerbeck 6F (-3.25) - Yuck, when was Scott last worth drafting? 2002

Reserved Pitchers:

Roy Halladay 27 (21.24) - A late season broken leg ruined a possible Cy Young season.
Jason Arnold 5M (minors) - Arnold isn't ready for the majors, but he'll be back...
Carl Pavano 20 (-1.04) - Carl crashed in NY, He has vowed to redeem himself. Good Luck.
Abe Alvarez 0 (6.66) - A decent lefty reliever.
Jason Davis 0 (-2.80) - Jason has so much potential. Wait for him to reach it before drafting him.

The league the Blue Sox owner is in allows him to keep twelve players from his roster and any minor leaguers that haven't been activated. In order to win the Blue Sox traded away a lot of young talent for B players (players that can't be kept). Still he has some talent to work with. He has some big salary players who despite their price can be worth keeping (Manny/ Vlad/ Damon/ Baez/ Zito). A lot of owners won't keep players at salaries like these because they think it puts them in a tough position in the auction. But consider this: In keeper leagues you need to ensure you'll get your fair share of the available value. On a team like the Blue Sox, who don't have many bargains it can be a good idea to keep the expensive studs. In a keeper league going into the auction without a solid roster of players forces you to take chances. You'll have to take chances because the other teams may have a huge advantage in talent over you. If you have a solid base of stats going into the auction (even if you don't have tons of money to spend) you can relax and just look for value.

Here are my keepers possibilities for the Blue Sox

1B Carlos Pena 18
2B Ronnie Belliard 8A
OF Mark Kotsay 14A


OF Manny Ramirez 39A
OF Vlad Guerrero 42A

SP John Lackey 10A
SP Paul Byrd 9
SP Barry Zito 25
SP Roy Halladay 27

RP Danys Baez 22
RP Jesse Crain 10

Why:

Carlos Pena - Carlos Pena at 18 may be a bit high but I suggest considering him a keeper because someone may want him at that price. Shop him around and get a sense of what the league thinks of his value.
Ronnie Belliard - Ronnie Belliard as much as i don't like him has put together two quality years in a row so he has obvious value.If like me you don't like him just trade him to someone who does for something you do like. Just remember that his value doesn't go away just because you have no faith in him.
Mark Kotsay - He is right about value. It a decent price and a decent value so keeping him is an easy option. Players at value are nice to keep especially when they are as solid and steady as Kotsay.
Manny Ramirez - Manny may be on the move to the other league.he'll be tough to trade. If you can do it do it. If he stays in the AL you have a great player at value or just under it.

Vlad Guerrero - Vlad is so popular that trading him even at $42 is no tough. Someone will want him.You may be surprised how many peole will keep a player like Vlad even at high prices.
John Lackey - John Lackey is an awesome value. I'd even extend him to 15.
Paul Byrd - The MLB clubs are starting to recognize his talent. Its about time fantasy leagues did the same. He may be tough to trade. His percieved value is often too low. But at that price it might be possible to get a good load for him.
Barry Zito - Zito is another player that could be on the move. He is at a decent price however and someone may bite. Pitching is tough to find in the AL.
Roy Halladay - Halladay is a little overrated. He hasn't been very consistent, mostly because of health issues. When he is on few are better but something always seems to happen. Nevertheless he is extremely popular and should get some interest.
Danys Baez - Yet another player that could be on the move. A closer that might be cheap enough to draw some interest. Even in a tough 5x5 league there is always someone who over values saves.
Jesse Crain - There have been some quiet rumors that the Twins would consider trading Nathan. The Twins could probably get quite a package for him and they have a number of capable arms in the bullpen. Crain would definitely be in line for the job. Most know this which would probably create some interest. he's worth 10 in any case which is the best kind of closer in waiting.

Please note that I would never recommend someone keep this particular combination nor do I think all the players on the list should be traded but I think its important to understand which players are at a price that allows them to be reasonably kept and how the league values them. This in my opinion is what the Blue Sox have to work with. I would start shopping the high priced players around and see if I could get a collection of bargains. i wouldn't expect to get too many sexy bargains (Grady Sizemore @ $10 types) but you can probably get a few middle class bargains (you know the types I mean Jacque jones @ 12 or Aubrey Huff @ 15 -they aren't sexy but there is meat on the bones for Manny or Vlad. Zito might bring an even bigger haul if he stays in the AL. I'd be trying to trade an outfielder for infield help in the shoes of the Blue Sox. But you can't do any of that until you undertake step two in the plan: Evaluate the other teams. The questions you ask of other teams are the exact same questions you ask about your own team. While you're asking these questions of each team here are a few steps you should be taking:

• Make a list of the players that will ceratinly be back in the draft.
• Make a list of all the possible keepers on each team.
• Look for teams that might match up with you in a trade.
• Try to understand the strategy of the owner by looking at the players on his team.
• Rank the teams in order of strength. You want to try and match or exceed the value of the best team or at least know how you'll manage that.