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The next Cuban Sensation: Shortstop Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

Wow, did a lot happen this week or what? My favorite bit of news is on the next Cuban Sensation up for bid. He is 19-year old shortstop (and potential second baseman, third baseman or center fielder) Yoan Moncada. This kid is said to be the real deal and definitely worthy of a spot on your dynasty league roster or a minor-league pick in keeper leagues. He is said to have plus speed, plus power and skill with the bat to go with a rocket arm and soft hands in the field.

This Ben Badler quote from Baseball America cinches the deal for me:

How good is Moncada? He has more upside than Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who just reached a $72.5 million deal with the Red Sox. He’s better than Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas... If Moncada were eligible for the 2015 draft, he would be in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick. Gourriel and Despaigne would be safer bets, but there’s no player in Cuba with Moncada’s combination of youth, tools and hitting ability. 

FanGraphs.com: The Yoan Moncada Showcase

Yoan Moncada may force MLB to move to an International Draft

Baseball America's Profile on Yoan Moncada

The Tampa Bay Rays Trade Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson seemed to defy expectations his first few years in the majors with ERA totals that looked much better than the various ERA predictors such as FIP and xFIP  revealed. Then injuries and disappointment dominated the last two seasons - as many experts predicted. What do the Arizona Diamondbacks see in Hellickson? They seem to have a vast collection of talented starting pitchers that have disappointed in one way or another, even before adding Hellickson to their numbers. They also have a few highly thought of pitching prospects.

I am confident that Hellickson can be solid mid-rotation starter for the D'backs. I think injuries are mostly to blame for the poor performance the last two seasons. And even if he is not the pitcher he appears to be in his rookie and sophomore seasons, he was never really projected to be terrible. His strikeout rate  has been ticking upward and his Swinging Strike rate is indicating that improvement is real. The uptick in strikeouts has also led to an improving FIP. The move to the NL should only help his strikeout rate improve further and with a solid defense behind him I think he will be quite fantasy worthy for a low investment.

Diamondbacks fans are not thrilled by the trade

Rays fans seem quite a bit happier...

Rays fans examine Hellickson just before the deal took place

New York Newsday's Controversial Steroid Story

Anthony Bosch has accused agent Scott Boras of attempting to cover up the positive test by Manny Ramirez a few years ago. At this point in the on-going steroid/PED story I do not know what to believe. It would be easy to believe that everyone involved in any way is dirty and that no one undeserving has been smeared but I cannot force myself to believe it. I will be very happy when all facets of this story disappear forever.

The New York Newsday Story

Scott Boras statement on the accusations (added to the Newsday Story after the fact)

Mets GM Sandy Alderson has nothing good to say about Scott Boras

The 2014 MLB Season Awards

Despite having his worst full season in the majors Mike Trout finally won the American League MVP award. Though a .287/.377/.561 batting line with 36 homeruns and 16 stolen bases would be a career year for most players. For fantasy owners I'm sure the stolen base total was disappointing and perhaps a few owners were counting on a .300-plus batting average to pull up the rest of their team batting stats. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs.com looks at how Trout was pitched in the second half of the season when he had a 30 percent strikeout rate. Personally I believe he will make the necessary adjustments to how he is pitched and continue to be one of the better players in the American League for another decade or so.

If I had a vote I would have given it to Giancarlo Stanton (he lets me call him Mike) for the National League MVP. I do not have a problem with pitchers winning the MVP award but I think that should only happen when the pitcher has an historic season and there is not a worthy performance by a batter. I do not believe that was the case this season. Stanton was outstanding this season and when you consider the overall decline of offense in MLB it was even more outstanding. A season of 6.1 fWAR, a 159wRC+, and 37 homeruns is a more than worthy MVP. The Miami Marlins were even in contention until late in the season thanks largely to his performance.

From MLBTradeRumors:

Trout’s 420 points were the most possible, and rounding out the top 10 in the AL were Victor Martinez (229), Michael Brantley (185), Jose Abreu (145), Jose Bautista (128), Robinson Cano (124), Nelson Cruz (102), Josh Donaldson (96), Miguel Cabrera (82) and Felix Hernandez (48). The full ballot is available in this Google doc from the BBWAA.

Kershaw edged out Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, finishing with 355 points to 298. Behind Kershaw and Stanton in the top 10 were Andrew McCutchen (271), Jonathan Lucroy (167), Anthony Rendon (155), Buster Posey (152), Adrian Gonzalez (57), Adam Wainwright (53), Josh Harrison (52) and Anthony Rizzo (37). The full ballot is available in this Google Doc from the BBWAA.

 Jose Abreu finished fourth in the MVP race and was the first ROY for the Chicago White Sox since Ozzie Guillen in 1985. After a huge debut season it is tough to imagine him doing much better, but if you look at his season splits it might change your mind. hit .292/.342/.630 with an absurd 29 homeruns in 351 PA. The second half he batted .350/.435/.513 with seven homers in 271 PA. The obvious takeaway might be the decline in homerun rate. But Abreu played through a hamstring injury for most of the second half and hit .350 while major league pitchers were doing everything in their power to either get him out or keep him from clearing the bases with one swing. I think there is another MVP worthy season coming from Jose Abreu.

I was a little surprised that Jake deGrom was such an over whelming winner over Billy Hamilton. However he is more than worthy of the award. The first New York Met ROY since the great Dwight  Gooden in 1984. deGrom is essentially the product of a good arm on an intelligent and hard-working player receiving great coaching and rubbing shoulders with talented veterans.

Eno Sarris Breaks down deGrom's experience and development in the Minor Leagues (a must read)

Hamilton's stats certainly were not as good for fantasy purposes in the second half but there were signs that he was improving as a baseball player which can only be good for his current and future owners. His defense was outstanding and he showed guts continuing to go out there and battle. Hamilton has shown the ability to adjust in the minors and I think he will adjust again to the barrage of inside fastballs he saw in the second half. Unless you paid an absurd amount for him he should be worth keeping around just for the stolen bases as he continues to improve as a player.

From MLBTrade Rumors:

The Angels’ Matt Shoemaker (40 points), the Yankees’ Dellin Betances (27), the Astros’ Collin McHugh (21) the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka (16) rounded out the top five in the AL voting.  Billy Hamilton finished second in the NL balloting with 92 points, well ahead of the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong (14), the Phillies’ Ken Giles (8) and the Diamondbacks’ Ender Inciarte (4).

Ken Giles made an impression this season

From MLBTradeRumors:

Kershaw was a unanimous winner, with Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright finishing second and third, respectively. Madison Bumgarner finished in fourth place (obligatory caveat: votes were due before the postseason commenced), while Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Doug Fister, Jake Arrieta, Craig Kimbrel, Stephen Strasburg and Henderson Alvarez rounded out the ballot. The award marks Kershaw’s third Cy Young in four seasons.

Kluber, a breakout star with the Indians, edged out Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who finished second. Kluber received a total of 169 points in the voting, while Hernandez received 159. Rounding out the ballot were Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, Phil Hughes, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Kluber posted an 18-9 record with a 2.44 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in 235 2/3 innings.

The Re-Building Braves

The Dodgers were not the only team to revamp their front office this fall. They brought Roy Clark back to the organization and hired Gordon Blakeley as Special Assistants to the General Manager. Brian Bridges was promoted to scouting director. Not to mention being John Hart on as the General Manager. The Braves have entered if not quite a re-building period - it is at least a period of re-structuring that extends from the front office to the playing field.

Baseball America outlines the front office and scouting department changes the Braves have made.

John Hart denied that the Braves were shopping Evan Gattis despite the abundance of rumors to the contrary. The inexperienced Christian Bethancourt will be the primary starting catcher. If the Braves are not marketing Gattis they will need to find a place for him to play, which is likely what has gotten the media and other GMs speculating.

“We are coming in with the idea that we don’t have to trade anybody,” Hart said. “We have not made a call (to see if a team is interested in any player). We have received calls on people; we haven’t had any conversations yet. That (Gattis rumor) is absolutely inaccurate. And quite frankly, I think anybody that says that – if you look, I’ve got two corner outfielders who’ve got one year left (before free agency), and I’ve got one potential corner outfielder (Gattis) that’s got four years left (under contractual control).”

Despite this statement it seems almost certain that the Braves will deal one of their corner outfielders before the season. I am sure they would prefer to trade B.J. Upton, but that is extremely unlikely to happen. That means either Jason Heyward or Justin Upton, if not both, will be traded for some combination of prospects and pitchers they can control for several years.the Braves should be able to get whatever they need. There are so few quality and experienced bats available in trade, they should have multiple options.

But then there is this:

“Everybody mentions the two outfielders (as trade targets), but there’s other pieces on this club that we might consider (trading),” John Hart said. “There’s some bullpen pieces below Kimbrel. We’ve got some pieces that people like, it’s just a matter of trying to the right guys back where you’re going to say, this will allow us to win, or at least allow us to compete. That’s where we are this early in the winter. And I think it’d be a shame on us if we didn’t go out and explore that avenue first. Go out and see if we can make a deal to get pieces that we like.That will, even though we’ve got to subtract something, will still give the club a chance to compete.”

GM John Hart on the Gattis Rumors

The Braves GM of the Future

The Yankees are Making Moves

Pending a physical, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with free agent outfielder Chris Young. It sounds like the yanks will also attempt to re-sign their closer, David Robertson. but Cashman's recent comments also make it sound as if negotiations will either progress quickly or the Yankees will move on and accept the draft pick as compensation.

Brian Cashman on the 2015 Closer

Cashman on the Justin Wilson Acquisition

Chris Young Re-Signed

The Yankees Outfield

More A-Rod Crap

Other Links of Potential Interest to Fantasy Owners

The Royals are interested in acquiring 1B Ryan Howard

More on the Dodgers new methodology.

Pablo Sandoval is a hot commodity

The Angels have targeted Max Scherzer

The Cardinals have money to spend

Baseball America on Cuban Shortstop Roberto Baldoquin

Rays Montreal Rumors

Hot Fantasy Prospect: Jose Abreu

Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu has been so impressive playing for the Cuban National Team that when he officially declared a MLB free agent every team in baseball sent someone to see him in his various showcases. These were teams that had obvious needs at first base and/or designated hitter as well as teams that had the positions well filled. The obviously strong interest was fueled even further by teams in need of a power bat that could not afford to part with a top draft pick to sign free agents who received a qualifying offer.

Despite all the interest the scouting reports on Abreu have skewed a bit negative. Most of them seem to focus on the report from Baseball America which states that Abreu seemed to struggle against quality fastballs located on the inner third of the plate. This is a weakness that many major leaguers have and one that does not necessarily destroy his potential as a high average masher. He may certainly struggle against the frontline starters with impeccable control but doesn’t everyone? Many major league starters struggle to consistently locate their fastballs. Abreu could also be coached to take a half step away from the plate.

I think it is helpful to note that several teams were involved in the bidding. Depending on which reports you buy into it is possible that as many as seven teams bid more than 50 million for Abreu. Those teams seem to include organizations such as the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros – organizations that at this point we should have learned to trust when it comes to scouting and player evaluation.

I first heard of Abreu when I saw Clay Davenport’s Cuban Player Translations. Take a look at these stats and I think you will be quite impressed. Clay Davenport of course one of the best analyst in the business and his translations well worth your attention.

What should be emphasized from almost every report is that Abreu despite average bat speed, has advanced hitting skills and tremendous power. I fully expect him to hit for a quality batting average and above average power as he adjusts to the majors. The hype created by previous Cuban imports like Yoanis Cespedes and Yasier Puig not only fed into the free agent frenzy but will also drive up his fantasy cost this coming season. I will be a buyer as long as the price stays reasonable. If he costs the same as other established power hitters I’d rather have one of them then the newbie, wouldn’t you?