Merry Christmas Yankees Fans!

Posted to the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog:

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...and to Yankees fans it looks like Christmas, New Years, birthdays and Mothers Day all wrapped together with a bright red bow.

The New York Yankees just committed $180 million over eight years to first baseman Mark Teixeira. Teixeira was negotiating with several teams including the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox until late last week when both teams dropped out of the bidding. The Yankees didn't even make an offer until Tuesday morning but it was quickly accepted. I'm guessing that LA and Bostn were trying to get a recession discount because this is pretty close to the asking price all along.

Teixeira is a fantastic hitter with plate discipline, patience and power. He should be an excellent fit in New York's lineup. He should have no problem scoring runs in front of Alex rodriguez and driving them in behind Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. Teixeira is a solid early round pick in mixed leagues and a top selection in deeper AL-only leagues.

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.

Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.

Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.

Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey

There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

Would You Draft Phil Hughes

After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.

Favorite Statistical Sources

Everyday there is another great site pops up that presents the baseball team and player statistics. The sites linked below are my favorites. They are not only great, they are free, so please support them in whatever fashion possible.

TheBaseballCube.com
When I want to get a quick sense of a player thebaseballcube.com is the first place I go. Not only do I get the basic stats that count for fantasy but key bits of information such as birthdate, age at each level, college stats, honors and awards that have been granted the player and a bunch more.

FanGraphs.com
When I need to understand where a player is going statistically or when I want to know why they rose or fell, this is the site I check. Fangraphs has tons of great stats that you rarely find on other sites - wOBA, IFFB percentage, HR/FB, IFH%, WPA and tons more. Plus, this site has a great blog that Dave Cameron --one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet -- contributes to frequently.

HardBallTimes.com
Sometimes I just need someone else to do the heavy lifting for a whilw and that means a trip to hardballtimes.com is in my future. Everything is here -- the news, the stats, the analysis, the fantasy spins, and the great reads. These guys also produce one of the very best baseball annuals in the business. Their annual has everything that the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Baseball Forecaster are always missing.

FirstInning.com
When I need to study a prospect there is only one source for advanced stats (that won't cost you an arm and a first born) and that is FirstInning.com. All of the stats you want when you're studying up on major leaguers are here for minor leaguers. Plus - prospect lists, charts, graphs, park factors, league factors -- everything you need to seriously examine prospects is here.

FSIC American League Draft Order

Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be drafting from the eighth spot in the American League Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge. Here is the whole draft order with the other competitors listed.

1	Fantasy Baseball Dugout
2	The Fantasy Man
3	Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
4	Rotohelp
5	Sporting News
6	ProFantasy Baseball
7	Roto Central
8	Advanced Fantasy Baseball
9	Fantasy Sports R Us
10	BBall Deluxe
11	Open Team
12	Fanball

I'm glad to see that there are some great sites competing. We all know how boring it get when the competition is not up to the challenge.