Lenny Melnick and Tony Cincotta Move to RotoExperts.com

With Lenny Melnick moving to my former home at RotoExperts.com (along with Tony Cincotta) I thought it might be interesting to move this into view again.

I want to thanks the hundreds of people who voted in the Favorite Fantasy Baseball Expert Poll. If I had to do it again (and I think I will do it again, next year) I would do it a bit differently. First, I would use Poll Software that allowed me to list more candidates. As many different popular experts were excluded. Second, I would make it more of a tournament by splitting the various experts into different categories and make it a series of polls that would culminate in the one true favorite fantasy baseball expert. Third, I would be certain to contact all of the various contenders (before posting) to allow them the opportunity to send their fans to vote.

As it is I think we did pretty well. It should not be shocking that the largest vote-getters come from the most popular (and biggest) websites. Those are the sites that I expected to get many of the votes. More surprising was the huge support for a couple of smaller sites (in Mass Media Appeal I mean). Razzball.com was an early favorite and they were not even listed on the poll. But many voters chose "other" and wrote them in via the comments section.

Just like your fantasy league we pay out to the TOP SIX spots. Considering the hundreds of fantasy experts out there this is a pretty exclusive group.



The Winners

First Place: Lenny Melnick of Fantasy Pros 911 - I should have an interview with Lenny posted in the next few days. Lenny Melnick is old school. He and his partner Irwin Zwilling were in the original ToutWars expert league and they are former NL-only champions and two-time LABR winners. Lenny is not only knowledgeable but his podcasts and radio shows re some of the most entertaining options on BlogTalkRadio. He is always willing to lend a hand to any of his listeners, if they will only ask him for it.

Second Place: Cory Schwartz of MLB.com - I think it is very interesting that our top two vote getters are most known for their podcasts and radioshows. I think that gives us an indication of where the industry is going. Fantasy owners haven't had to scour the newsstands and bookstores to find information in a long time. But now they don't even need to read. They can just login to blogtalkradio or MLB.com's podcasts and find whatever information they need. Cory Schwartz is the Director of Statistics for MLB.com. His Fantasy 411 blog and podcast is extremely popular. It may be the most popular fantasy podcast on the net.

Third Place : Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com - Ron Shandler introduced many fantasy baseball participants to sabermetrics and more advanced fantasy baseball methods. Baseball HQ is also responsible for bringing many baseball fans into the fantasy sports industry. Shandler has led the campaign to make other industries take the fantasy sports industry seriously. He is the inventor of the LIMA Plan and the founder of ToutWars.

Fourth Place: Matt Berry of ESPN - Matthew Berry is one of the funniest fantasy sports writers out there. No surprise that he comes to the Fantasy Sports Industry from Hollywood. Some people love him, some hate him, but everyone reads his LOVE/HATE articles along with the tons of fantastic fantasy content available at ESPN. Before Berry took over much of the content at ESPN/fantasy was considered a joke. But now they are a site to be respected and even emulated. I probably wouldn't be writing this blog if not for Matthew Berry giving me a chance at thetalentedmrroto.com. Now, he just needs to do something about his horrible fantasy draft shows on ESPN. Call me, I have a better plan for you...

Fifth Place: Jason Grey of ESPN - Anyone who reads this site on a regular basis knows that Jason Grey is my personal favorite expert. He is trained as a baseball scout and that ability gives his great columns and blog posts a unique and valuable edge.

Sixth Place: Eric Mack of CBSportsline.com - Eric Mack is an award winning sports writer. He has been playing fantasy sports since the 80's and is one of the newer members of ToutWars. He has been with CBS Sports for 11 years and the senior fantasy sports writer for the last six years.

The Honorable Mentions: Rudy and Grey of Razzball.com, Jason Collette of Fanball.com, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire, Alex Patton of Pattonandco.com, Todd ZolaMastersball.com of , and Lawr Michaels of Creative Sports.

Here are some of the many comments in praise of their favorites...

jintman1 said...

I think everyone has that 1st guy that they read or listened too that got them up to speed on how to play Fantasy at a higher level. For me it was Cory Schwartz,the way he communicates his opinions and analysis made sense to me. But I still read and respect all of the other guys out there as well.

SRM said...

Grey at Razzball as well. Probably the only column i'd consider reading even if i didn't play fantasy baseball. Good fantasy advice and the site has a collaborative and informed comments section which Grey takes his time to be a key part of.

aleast91 said...

As I said my first year of Tout, it's always an honor to get my ass kicked by people like Ron Shandler, Jason Grey and Lawr Michaels (among others, all of whom are very talented and good people). But this list is incomplete without Jason Collette, too.

Thanks,
Cory

Patrick DiCaprio said...

there is no one funnier on a daily basis than Lenny Melnick and that is what separates him from the rest-they all know their stuff!

REDRUM said...

I'll also add that Lenny Melnick is the most ACCESSIBLE and Interactive Expert...
Ive been able to talk to him on the phone, via email, and on his live shows... Some of these other guys dont make them self as available as Lenny does....

Lenny is a born comedian as well check this link at the 25 min mark..

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Lenny-Melnick/2009/05/08/Fantasy-Baseball-With-Lenny-Melnick

Scott said...

Shandler gives you a unique approach to fantasy approach with his hordes of stat research. Schwartz is excellent and he does a fine job of keeping the info only relevant with mixed leagues, which suits his primary audience at Mlb.com. Lenny gives you the most up to date info of fantasy relevance, but he spends HOURS reading and tracking box scores, line-up changes, and making sure he reads 3 or 4 newspapers per team a day. If you want to miss a week of fantasy baseball for any reason, just keep track of Lenny's daily podcasts. Lenny's best attribute is his experience, but he has a tendency to fall in love with certain qualities in players, which is a bad attribute, but if you can weed this out your fine. Mathew Berry is funny and his buddy Nate Ravitz, including his hot sisters, are funny and their info is tried and tested. Berry's columns are very funny and also includes some pop culture references. Berry told me over and over again to stay away from J.D. Drew...good year or not he is bad news. Berry is also good with evaluating injury time, but I doubt he realizes his own accuracy. He sure loves the spotlight, but would you blame him. He turned his fantasy baseball fanaticism to a big fortune. I read zola and listened to him online...one of the best. Erickson has the best roto site bar none with Rotowire. BaseballHQ is the next best. That would be a great poll....What website do you visit for comprehensive news and advice. Eric Mack doesn't do much, but spews out information that we all already know. His website or maybe it is him, do a good job with prospect hunting, but anybody can do it and his articles unveal my hidden gems, which means he is probably doing his job and I hat him in spite of it. I don't subscribe to the other sites, but I know Lawr Michaels from interviews and he is kind of a clone of Lenny, so I'm sure he can give you some well-rounded advice.

Scott said...

Redrum, you are very right about Lenny being funny. He sometimes loses focus in the middle of his podcasts and you never know what he's going to sing or joke about. Some of the best humor is when he talks to the audience, but he is really talking to himself and that my friends can make for some funny radio. Cory is Yoda-like. He has the most applicable info in his head and to me is one of the best because he has the best of all talents. He has experience mixed in with a great stats background. He is the brains of MLB.com. Siano has definitely picked his brain enough to become a much better fantasy press participant. Siano would choose a fantasy team of Yankees rather draft a winning fantasy franchise. Just ask him.

josefbreuer said...

among things i like about melnick, is that he doesn't try to be objective. like the one reader here remarked, you need to listen to melnick critically. still, his ability to make consistently reasonable and sound assessments is his strength. he's also down-to-earth and accessible. i'm still pretty green in FBB and have only this year been introduced to razzball.com. -- terrific collection of great minds complemented by ascerbic wit. i think jason grey's analyses are outstanding: thorough and comprehensive. i'm glad to have gotten an explanation about what limited the choices on this ballot, and would like to add kudos to mike podhorzer at fantasypros911. his leaders and laggards column is brilliant and his preseason rankings, on which i relied a lot this season, have proven very reliable.

Jason Collette said...

That's an extremely tough vote. They're all smart as hell but each has their own unique characteristic. Razzball guys are funny as hell, Melnick talks to anyone, and Schwartz is very personable, etc.

Anonymous said...

Grey & Rudy is cool, so is you Jon!

Triple Crown National League Auction Results

This is the time of year for expert leagues, and the Triple Crown NL Auction is in the books.  I was happy to represent Advanced Fantasy Baseball in this NL-only 5x5 rotisserie auction redraft league.

In order to make a good showing, I knew I had to deal with two difficult sets of circumstances:  1) the other owners are industry experts, and I expected them to be disciplined and make very few mistakes; and 2) this was going to be my first NL-only auction. 

To even the playing field, I decided upon two strategies I have used successfully in other leagues.  The first was to select a core group of players I wanted on my team, even if I had to pay a little extra for them.  My belief was that the other owners would be fairly conservative, and not go beyond a players value range, even by a couple of dollars.  The second was to search for inefficiencies in the market...players I believe will be worth more than generally expected.  I hoped that savings from the second strategy would offset the extra money spent buying my core players.  Having a firm idea who I wanted before the auction made up somewhat for my lesser knowledge of the player pool.

Here's how I wound up:


ADVANCED FB CRUMPLER

10    Bryce Harper, Wsh OF      $28
47    Norichika Aoki, Mil OF      $16
54    Angel Pagan, SF OF      $16
56    M. Bumgarner, SF SP      $20
59    Juan Pierre, Mia OF      $12
63    Yadier Molina, StL C      $20
70    Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP      $19
71    Yonder Alonso, SD 1B      $14
83    Neil Walker, Pit 2B      $17
87    Aaron Hill, Ari 2B          $21
89    Mat Latos, Cin SP          $18
97    Josh Rutledge, Col SS      $16
153    L. Morrison, Mia OF      $12
159    Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC RP      $11
161    Sean Marshall, Cin RP      $2
172    Jordan Pacheco, Col 3B      $6
198    Travis d'Arnaud, NYM C      $5
236    Chris Heisey, Cin OF      $2
239    Bronson Arroyo, Cin SP      $1
251    Placido Polanco, Mia 3B      $1
263    Fernando Salas, StL RP      $1
274    J.J. Hoover, Cin RP      $1
284    Eric O'Flaherty, Atl RP      $1
292    Edward Mujica, StL RP      $1
299    A. Bastardo, Phi RP      $1
306    John Baker, SD C          $1
310    Tim Stauffer, SD SP      $1

The number to the left shows where the player was nominated (for example, Bryce Harper was the 10th nomination).  To the right are my winning bids.

Bryce Harper is one of the core players I intended to buy all along.  I expect growth this year, and I was happy to pay $28.  It wasn't until the 47th player that I purchased again.  In the meantime, way too many guys had gone for more than my conservative budget would allow (no more than $30 for a hitter, no more than $20 for a pitcher).  Eventually, Aoki joined the fold.  I didn't have him targeted in advance, but I classified him as a bargain at $16. 

Other players on my "must buy" list:  Angel Pagan, Yonder Alonso, Yadier Molina, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos, Neil Walker, and Kyuji Fukiwawa.  Of these, I was able to get some at discounts, such as Pagan at $16, Alonso at $14 and Neil Walker at $17.  I later added Bumgarner to my staff, with Bronson Arroyo a nice pickup at only $1. 

I knew I wouldn't be able to make it through the year on four starting pitchers, but the ones I got are high K/9 guys, and I filled in with high K relievers.  Of those relievers, Fujikawa should wind up closing soon, and a couple of others could be in good shape for vulture wins and/or a few saves.  Keep in mind that a large portion of the pitching value in a given year is not on a roster after the auction, so choosing the right free agents will be essential.

The middle infield came about a little oddly.  I had grabbed Neil Walker with some confident, aggressive bidding, and thought he was a good buy.  I was happy, because 2B is thin, and I thought I had one of the best.  Then someone nominated Aaron Hill, my choice for best of the 2B heap. I was sure he would go for $28 or $30.  So, for the heck of it, I waited until the bidding went $1, $2, $3, and then I jumped the bid to $21.  Crickets. I don't know whether everyone else thought $21 was to much for Hill, or if they were shocked just long enough to take no action.  I was happy to have an excellent 2B and an MI.  Things got even better with the shortstop position, when I picked up Josh Rutledge for only $16. So, with Hill, Walker and Rutledge, I would stack my middle infield up against just about anyone.

My spree of buying 11 players between #47 and #97 drained my budget and put me behind the eight ball a bit.  I was forced to battle for Logan Morrison, the last decent CI out there, and Jordan Pacheco for my 3B.  He cost me $5 precious dollars at a time when I had very little money left.  The word now is that Arenado may start at third in Colorado, but I believe Pacheco will get enough ABs at third, first and even catcher to justify his price.  He could even qualify as a Catcher, which could make him decent trade bait.

After Harper, Aoki  and Pagan, I set out to finish my outfield.  The outfield is pretty thin in the NL this year, with a lot of glove men manning the posts.  We start with only 90 or so who qualify, then we take 60 of them for the outfield position, another handful as DHs, and a few in other positions.  That probably strips at least 70 to 75, leaving only a little more than a dozen left.  And with our four-man bench, those few stragglers were certain to get roped.

So, I went first with Juan Pierre.  Seldom have I seen a guy for whom the posted values vary so greatly.  Some value him at $26 in an "only" league, while others say $4 to $5.  Here's what I know...he can still fly, he will get a chance to run, and his average should help your team.  For $12, he's a gamble worth taking in my book.

The rest of the draft was spent struggling through dollar days, trying to find a pearl here and there.  It was frustrating to be down to a dollar a player, a harsh reminder to save some money for the end game, even if it means letting someone go that you would like to have.

The next night, our first free agent period, I purchased Yorvit Torrealba to replace John Baker as my emergency catcher, and said goodby to Fernando Salas in return for Alex Castellanos.  I look at that LAD outfield, and figure Castellanos should get some ABs on sick days.

So, what does the team look like?  The post-draft projection app at ESPN picked my squad to finish a strong third, only four points out of first.  Of course, my projections for many of my players are more optimistic than CBS...which is why I got those particular players.

Here's my roster again, by position:

Advanced FB Crumpler

C Yadier Molina 20
C Travis d'Arnaud 5

1B Yonder Alonso 14
2B Neil Walker 17
3B Jordan Pacheco 6
SS Josh Rutledge 16

MI Aaron Hill 21
CI Logan Morrison 12

OF Bryce Harper 28
OF Norichika Aoki 16
OF Angel Pagan 16
OF Juan Pierre 12
OF Chris Heisey 2

UTL Placido Polanco 1

P Madison Bumgarner 20
P Yovani Gallardo 19
P Mat Latos 18
P Kyuji Fujikawa 11
P Sean Marshall 2
P Bronson Arroyo 1
P  Antonio Bastardo 1
P J.J. Hoover 1
P Eric O'Flaherty 1

BE Edward Mujica 1
BE John Baker 1  (now Yorvit Torrealba)
BE Tim Stauffer 1
BE Fernando Salas 1  ( now Alex Constellanos)

Here's what I figure these guys can generate if my projections hold true:

Runs:     825
HR:    180
RBI:    750
SB:    180   
Avg:     .279

Ws:    75
Sv:    24
Ks:    1050
ERA:    3.35
Whip: 1.18

We should do very well in Runs, SBs and Average, and pretty well in HR and SBs.  I do see a need for some more pop, though, and that will be a priority in trading.  I'll also scour the free agents each week looking for a serviceable pitcher.  I would settle for a guy I could only start at home, when the match-up is right.  A guy may go 4.90 ERA on the road, but have a cozy little 3.45 in his home part.

Well, that's about it, at least for now.  If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to make yourself heard. And again, thanks to Jon and Advanced Fantasy Baseball for giving me the chance to play in this challenging and exciting league.

Check in for more updates on the Triple Crown NL League, and be sure to check AFB regularly for tips and information which will help you in your league.

American League LABR

You can access the results of the Al-Only League of Alternative Baseball Reality on a Google Docs Spreadsheet. I won't reproduce the teams here but I will give you my quick impressions of each team.

Chris Liss - Rotowire

Pricey Stud - Ian Kinsler $30

Best Bargain - Travis Snider $5

Nick Minnix - KFFL

Fully Priced Power - Albert Pujols $41

Super Sleeper - Alexi Casilla $6

Perry Van Hook - Mastersball.com

Biggest Expenditure - Brett Lawrie $28

Frugal Find - Matt Harrison $6

Nate Ravitz - ESPN

Big Buy - Jose Bautista $35

Best Buy - James Shields $19

Dave Adler - Baseball HQ

Most Money - Mark Teixeira $30

Priced to Move - Henderson Alvarez $5

Jason Collette - Baseball Prospectus

Fancy First Baseman - Prince Fielder $32

Stud Sleeper - Wilson Betemit $9

Larry Schecter - Sandlot Shrink

Admired Anchor - Jacoby Ellsbury $36

Crackerjack Pick - Grant Balfour $7

Brad Evans - Yahoo! Sports

Costly Corner - Adrian Beltre $29

Prized Prospect - Ryan Kalish $2

Wolf/Colton - Rotoworld.com

Meritorious Man - Miguel Cabrera $40

Small Speculation - Manny Ramirez $3

Ambrosius/Childs - NFBC

Rare Red Sox - Adrian Gonzalez $36

Least Likely - Matt LaPorta $1

Erickson/Melnick - Sirius XM

Laser Show - Dustin Pedroia $33

Sharp Savings - Max Scherzer $13

Steve Gardner - USA Today

Ace Acquisition - Felix Hernandez $27

Former Ranger - Chris Davis $7

Which Fantasy Baseball Expert is Your Favorite?

UPDATE: I want to thank the many people who voted in this poll. As of today (05/30/09) I'm declaring the winners.

Every expert has their own particular style and quirks. I read as many of them as I can on a regular basis as I'm sure you do. But which expert clicks with you the best. Which expert are you most likely to emulate or at least heavily value their opinion. I would love to hear why you chose as you did. Let's start a real discussion in the comments section.