Roundtable: Have You Ever Quit on a League?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by RotoAuthority.com and asks the question:

Have you ever quit on a fantasy team of yours? If so, what were the circumstances? If not, how were you able to maintain your motivation even after you had no chance?

We have some very interesting answers this week that just might surprise you. Check it out at RotoAuthority.

Roundtable: Does Your Trade Pitch Work?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has been posted at The Hardball Times. Derek Carty poses a question regarding trade talks:

Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?

It is an interesting question that resulted in some interesting answers. Please, check it out by clicking here.

This Week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's question:

Where would you draft David Wright in a mid-season league and why?

It is an interesting question given Wright's strange season. Check out the link for some interesting ideas on where he should fall in a mid-season draft.

Roundtable: Greinke, Verlander, or Lester

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. This is one of my favorite fantasy sites and you should definitely become a frequent visitor. Brett Greenfield asks us a loaded question this week:

Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon
Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?

The collective answers are fairly interesting. All three pitchers received votes. I was the only one to pick my choice but I'm okay with that. I like being on the outside of the groupthink.

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show

I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show on Tuesday night at 10:30. This is one of the most popular Fantasy Baseball Shows in all the land. Please check it out!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-General/2009/06/17/The-Fantasy-Baseball-Roundtable-Radio-Show

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Contend or Bust!

This week we have the pleasure of hosting the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. I asked a question on the minds of many fantasy owners at this point in the season...

You find yourself in 7th place in a 15 team mixed 5x5 league. You've just lost your best hitter to injury and your pitching isn't that good. If you really want to win, what do you do?

We received a bunch of great answers. If you find yourself in a tight race or falling behind, the advice from this group of experts just might show you how to pull ahead.

Mike Podhorzer – Fantasy Pros 911

Find the nearest tissue box, wipe the tears away, and gently explain to yourself that due to some bad luck, this just might not be your year. Or you could simply come to terms with the fact that you may just not be a very good fantasy baseball player! On a serious note, it really depends on a number of factors that were not given in the question. Absolute rank in the standings means a lot less than how many points you are behind a money spot. It is also important to know how close the category totals are and how easy it is to gain points. I would look over my roster to see how many under performers I own and if there is any hope for a rebound for these players. I would be much more confident in a second half run if my team was loaded with slow starters than if I had players performing right at expectations. There is really no great piece of advice for this situation, other than simply trading for better value, trying your best to acquire pitchers whose skills are better than their ERAs suggest and crossing your fingers that your team enjoys better fortune over the rest of the season. Panic moves and trades just to "shake things up" will probably do more harm than good.

Tommy Landry – RotoExperts

At this point in the season, it is time to pull out the stops if you are muddling in the middle and suffering from injuries. I would start working the wire on my pitching ASAP, shooting to snag guys on a tear before they cool off or hot prospects facing MLB batters for the first time. Even though most roto leagues have a pitching start limit, don't let that scare you off of maxing out your starts as soon as possible in this scenario. There are always useful MRs out there in mixed leagues, and once you use up all your starts, you can get cheap wins and Ks with respectable ratios from a long list of relievers down the stretch. For hitting, now is the time to cut the dead weight and start gambling on players who are likely to be called up over the summer. Look at what guys like Alexi Casilla and Mike Aviles did late last season. Keep an eye on guys like Matt LaPorta, Eric Young Jr. (will be a huge speed source once he's up, but beware the BA and OBP), and even Alcides Escobar, for example. And faithfully check the waiver wire daily, because I've managed to snag some gems already this year, including John Lackey in a shallow league and Casey Blake (seriously, look at the numbers) in a very deep experts league. Most of all, never surrender!

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority

My typical answer is to trade pitching for hitting, even if you don't have much. If I had one good starter, I would shop him. If I felt I could find saves on the waiver wire, I would shop my best closer or even package up two closers for a top bat. Beyond that, I wouldn't do anything. I am not a fan of shaking a team up for the sake of shaking it up. At the time of this writing, 64% of the season remains. Plenty of time for a 7th place team to climb the standings if you believe in your players.

Patrick Cain – Albany Times Union

You are in seventh right now, congrats you're on a one-way street to irrelevancy so the hitter you lost probably doesn't matter too much. And for your pitching? Well, there is not much on your wire either I bet. So gear up, it is time to focus and focus hard on an achievable strategy.

I will assume your "best hitter" is one that has power. Ditch HRs. Ok, don't abandon them, but settle for finishing in the bottom 3. RBI are going to lag too, but that depends greatly on your other positions. As for offense, I'd try something like going for AVG, SB, R. That means Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford are being fast tracked over to my squad as I sacrifice some pop....don't forgot you can deal that injured hitter assuming he's not out for the season. From there, make sure your weakest guys - the $1 or $2 like players - are hitting high in the lineup. Until recently, a prime example would have been Skip Schumaker.

If you can own SBs, R, AVG and you avoid dead last for RBI & HR, your offense isn't in that bad of shape. Let's say can get 1st on those 3 and 12th for the other 2...that's 53 of 75 points. With that you'll average out to be in the top 3rd, and that is typically were a team in the hunt needs to be.

Oh yea, keep your offensive bench thin to nonexistent. You'll see why.

As for pitching, exploit mid-relievers. Many non-hold leagues forget about the no-name 7th inning men. Ideally, the rest of your league will have fewer pitchers as they will have an offensive bench. Think about this: a crappy starter (say Ross Ohlendorf) goes something like this... 5 innings 3 ER, 2 Ks. Nobody wants that. If a few mid relievers contribute that night you could get 8 Innings, 3 ER, 6 Ks, on the night. Presto, you just turned Ohlendorf into an average starter by adding pinch of Mike Wuertz to the equation.

This will help your ERA, WHIP, and Ks a phenomenal amount. And when a closer goes down, you'll probably have the backup, putting you in line for Saves.

A completely different approach would be to pick up guys with extremes vs. left vs. right splits and play matchups. But I'm guessing someone else will touch on that.

Adam Ronis – Newsday

The first thing you need to do is analyze where you are in categories. You might have five points in home runs, but be 10 homers away from getting 10 points. Look at the categories where you can move up and target those categories. You need to work the waiver wire well, even though the pickings may be slim. You also need to take chances. Look for players that are struggling and have track records and try to acquire them. A guy like Chris Young from the Diamondbacks is an example. He has power and speed, but has been awful. Try and find players that are struggling but have proven in the past they can get it done. The bottom line is don't give up. Make trades and be aggressive.

Rudy Gamble – RazzBall

Why don't you add a few more hindrances? How about the cable company turned off my Internet access? Or I have been caught for not paying taxes on my past years' fantasy baseball league winnings and I am being sent to prison?

Winning at this point - assuming it isn't very tight between 1st place and 7th place - is highly unlikely. You obviously have to take some chances. I would gamble on young players and look to make some trades to upgrade weak spots with an emphasis on strong 2nd-half players. If there is anyone on my team that is a possible sell-high candidate, I am looking to move them. Same with closers as I would rather take the risk of finding saves off the waiver wire.

Jon Williams – Advanced Fantasy Baseball

The most important thing to remember is that you have more than half the season to make up ground. Use trades to fill any holes in your lineup. One of my favorite strategies is to trade a star player for two less popular but productive veterans. Often you will lose a little in the Homerun and Stolen Base categories but you will gain in Runs and RBI. I suggest you trade for hitting help because good bats are extremely hard to find on waivers. I also would play up the strengths of the players you do have. If you have power but no batting average or speed concentrate on building your power stats even higher. If you have a surplus in a category you can trade it for players that will help you gain ground in whichever category is easiest.

Concentrate your FAAB bids and waiver claims to build your pitching statistics. You can never count on building points in the wins category so do not even try. Instead, look to gain in ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts. If you own mediocre or bad starters, dump or trade the bad ones for the best middle relievers available. Often a few good middle relievers can do the job of an ace pitcher. Also, keep an eye out for pitchers that are performing better than their results. Until recently, Jon Lester was a very good example of the kind of pitcher you want to target.

If you are in a keeper league, consider trading your best prospects and keepers for more expensive one-year players. The goal is always to win this year. You can worry about next season in 2010. Any upgrade you make is going to make winning that much easier.

Do not give up! You can do it!

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Surfaces!

If you thought you missed a couple weeks of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, you didn't. We were caught in a brief delay that is now over. The Hardball Times are hosting this week. The question of the week is a doozy...

Is there ever a time when you 'Buy High' or 'Sell Low' on a player (interpret the meanings of those two phrases as you wish)? Choose a player who you would currently 'Sell Low' (i.e. David Ortiz, Garrett Atkins) or 'Buy High' (i.e. Michael Young, Raul Ibanez, etc.) and give us your sales pitch for that player. If, for example, you're trying to trade Ortiz, how would you market him to the other owners in your league? Finally, what is the minimum requirement you would accept in a trade for the player you selected (or the maximum you would offer in the case of a 'Buy High' player')?

It is an interesting question and Derek Carty received some great responses. Check out the article and come back here and leave your own opinion in the comments section.

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

Sorry about the lack of posts the last few days. I'll try to make up for it this afternoon. You can read the lastest Fantasy Baseball Roundtable at Razzball.com this week. This week's topic of discussion concerns the statistical categories that we use to draft and evaluate players during the season. You should check out all the interesting answers.

What category(ies) do you think about least when drafting and managing your fantasy roster?

To Read: Chipper Jones Interview

A member of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has secured an interview with the Atlanta Braves star third baseman, Chipper Jones. Since we always support our friends I am pointing out the interview so that you all (or y'all if you prefer) may enjoy it.The interview appears a few inches under the banner and breaking news at the top of the page.

The Chipper Jones Interview

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is being hosted by RotoAuthority.com (respect it!) and Tim Dierkes has asked the collected members:

Here on April 30th, what is your single biggest fantasy baseball regret of the year?

Check out a wide variety of answers from some of the best Fantasy Baseball Bloggers in the business.

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is up at FantasyPros911. The question of the week:

Would you prefer to have Howie Kendrick or Aaron Hill for the remainder of the season?

You can check out the various answers right here.

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by Patrick Cain of the Albany Times Union.

What "cold" starts are most concerning to you? Who would you look to trade before their value plummets even further? What makes you convinced that this is not just a slow start to 2009?

Check out the variety of great answers!

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's roundtable is hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. This week's question:

Name one pitcher and one hitter that is on the waiver wire in most leagues, that is worth picking up and could become the next Cliff Lee or Ryan Ludwick. Why them?

Lots of great answers, be sure to check it out.

Adam Ronis - A Knight of the Roundtable

Adam Ronis of News Day is the host of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable this week. He asked the assembled Knights if there were players that we would not draft no matter how far they slipped in the draft or auction. You can read the entry at the link below:

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Hosted By Adam Ronis

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Week Five

This week I have the privilege of hosting this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. The question I posed to my fellow analysts?

What is your favorite source or method of uncovering sleepers?

Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
An effective method for finding sleepers is to use sabermetric statistics. I use K/9 ratio, ERC differential and DIPS differential.

When looking for strikeouts, the K/9 ratio is much more important than the overall number of strikeouts tallied. Jonathan Sanchez, for example, struck out 157 batters in 158 innings last year. While 157 strikeouts may not seem so impressive, Sanchez struck out nearly a batter per inning. His K/9 ratio of 8.94 was ranked 7th in the majors behind only Tim Lincecum, AJ Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir and Chad Billingsley. Sanchez could strike out 200 batters, given 200 innings.

Sanchez also finished with a 5.01 ERA, which is far from impressive. However, looking at his DIPS and ERC differentials can shed some light on how much better his numbers should have been. His DIPS was 3.87 and his ERC was 4.32. Both of those ERA's are far lower than his actual ERA of 5.01.

Using sabermetric pitching statistics is definitely my favorite method for finding sleepers.

Patrick Cain - Albany Times Union
How to find sleepers?

One thing I do - and I'm sure there is an easier way - is I have a program that I wrote that collects first and second half splits for players. I then make them into rate stats and look for sizable jumps. I'm a big fan of players who make strides in their second half, assuming there is a reason for the gain.

Take for example Alex Gordon. Last year he made big gains in the second half...was this just luck or was it he's finally adjusting to major league pitching. Well, I hope for my sake, it's the later. Or, not-so-much-a-sleeper but Miguel Cabrera. Perhaps his second half improvement was he adjusted to the AL. These types of reasons, mixed with realistic increases (not something like Manny's) puts a man on my sleeper list.

Adam Ronis - Newsday
A lot of people like to look at last season's numbers and harp on those too much often ignoring a track record and a history of good skills. I like to examine these players and figure out why they had poor seasons. These are good players to look at because they come at a discount or minimal cost. Ian Snell is one example. He barely gets drafted in mixed leagues after being highly touted last season. He had some bad luck and an injury, but the numbers from 2008 get etched in the mental hard drive of many owners. That's a good thing. He's a good sleeper that should bounce back and won't cost much.

I also look at young players that came into the big leagues with a lot of hype and have failed to live up to the lofty expectations. When this happens, people tend to forget about these players. Alex Gordon is an example. Brandon Wood is an even more extreme example. Not everyone is Ryan Braun. Sometimes it takes longer for younger players to adapt to the major leagues. These players can often be sleepers, too.


Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
I base sleeper candidates on two criteria: skill and opportunity. My main method for hitters is to scour depth charts and look for soft spots. If the 'soft spot' player has shown skill in the past, they may be worth a low investment (think Cantu and Ludwick last year). In addition, hot prospects who have seatwarmers or injury-prone players above them on the depth chart are worthwhile gambles. It's tougher in shallower leagues to make these gambles as 'Super 2' status means it'll likely be May before even the most obvious prospect is brought up (Braun, Longoria, this year Wieters).

For starting pitchers, I look at their league (favor NL), division (NL West is best), home park, ability to K guys (walks don't bother me as much), and fastball MPH. For good pitching prospects, I look to see if there's a potential opening (most staffs there are) and look at their MLE (major league equivalent) data from the minor leagues. This could either be gotten directly through a Baseball HQ (although last year's 'can't misses' of Cueto and Parra didn't help me) or gleaned by the current year projections of a CHONE or ZiPS.

For relievers, K rate and opportunity.

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority.com
In the preseason, it has become somewhat difficult to come up with sleepers no one else has. If we all write about the same 20-30 sleepers and play in leagues against each other, those sleepers start getting drafted before similar established players. I like Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis, even to the point of taking them a round or two early. But when they go earlier than that I have to let them go. It's kind of win-win for me - I look good for the rec if they succeed, and don't have them on my team if they fail!

To find the Cruzes and Davises it's just a matter of coming up with good projections and dollar values and comparing them to average draft position reports. If a $15 player is going after the 10th round you might have a sleeper, until the hype machine rears its ugly head. The power of that hype machine depends on the level of your competition, because the magazines everyone uses typically lag behind the web in quality of analysis.

I've started to turn toward players where the strict statistical projections aren't impressive but the tools are there for good years. Could be youngsters like Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Fields or veterans like Gary Sheffield and Brad Penny. Hopefully late-round flyers on these types will pay off.

Jon Williams - RotoExperts.com
For hitters I like to look at players about to experience a huge increase in at-bats. Often players going from bench roles to fulltime (or close enough) will be underrated due to small sample sizes of their ability. One of my favorite examples for this coming season is Russell Branyan. Branyan has rarely received more than a token role in the major leagues for a variety of reasons. What is clear however is that if given 400-500 at-bats he begins to look a lot like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, and Ryan Ludwick who will certainly cost up to ten times as much.

When it comes to pitchers I do my best to ignore roles altogether. I love to find pitchers that have shown the ability to induce groundballs and collect strikeouts. These are the pitchers who are helping themselves the most by eliminating as many park and team factors as possible. One of my favorite examples for this season is David Huff of the Indians who I expect to play a huge role in the Indians 2009 season.

Andrew Cleary - Fantasy Pros 911

My favorite method comes from the end of the previous season. In the last weeks of any fantasy season, I usually find myself scrambling for the few remaining free agents that can give the least, final benefit to my run at the title. By this time in the year, the breakout stars and proven veterans are long since entrenched on everyone's rosters, and the free agent list is full of new call-ups and streaky sometime-stars. Since I'm already evaluating pitchers and hitters to guess at whether their skills will give a good boost to my stats or not, I also keep a list of those that look like they have the skills for future success.

That's why I found myself last year adding pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine, Dallas Braden, and Chad Gaudin for some last-minute wins and strikeouts. They all had some good outings at the end of the season, and so were tantalizing bait for nervous managers like me. But I also was able to get a close enough look at their skills to know that they also each had a fair chance to make significant contributions in 2009.

Keeping this list helps me scout out some players that might be under the radar in the following year. And having that focus on the future helps keep me from going nuts over the fact that only a few more wins and strikeouts could keep me in the money. Whew!

2009 Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Week Three

Week three of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority.

Name the player who is the worst value for his average draft position, within the first three rounds.

See how this group of experts answered

Patrick DiCaprio: Fantasy Pros 911
Jon Williams: RotoExperts
Tim Dierkes: RotoAuthority
Rudy Gamble: Razzball
Jason Collette: Fanball.com
Brett Greenfield: FantasyPhenoms.com
Adam Ronis: New York Newsday
Derek Carty: The Hardball Times
Patrick Cain: Albany Times Union
Commish:Fantasy Baseball Geeks

Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

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