Matt Holliday Traded to St. Louis Cardinals

The Oakland Athletics have decided to trade outfielder Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for a collection of prospects including third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson, and right-hander Clayton Mortensen. These prospects are all worthy of attention in AL-only leagues but Brett Wallace is a prospect I expect to be a very special hitter. The Cardinals knew they had a potentially special hitter in Wallace but since they were extremely reluctant to play him at third base (and some other guy is at first base) it seemed pretty obvious they would eventually deal him.

Matt Holliday has been a much better hitter this month than for most of the first half, batting .344 with a .421 on-base percentage in July. His season totals are just a little worse than I expected out of Coors Field. He has batted .286 with 11 homers and 12 stolen bases in the first half. I expected closer to .300 with about 20-22 homers on the season with 20-25 stolen bases which would be about what he averaged on the road the last few seasons. Basically Holliday has been the same player but he is hitting more fly balls, mostly of the infield variety which has reduced his BABIP and this his batting average. This may be something that Holliday has corrected in his swing but it could also be just a fortunate streak. Either way Holliday is still a very good player that should be owned in fantasy leagues of all types and sizes. In NL-only leagues he is worth a significant FAAB bid.

Holliday will play every day in left field. The big loser in playing time will be Rick Ankiel who will probably steal a few at-bats from Colby Rasmus but will mostly be relegated to fourth outfielder status. Ryan Ludwick (who is blistering hot lately) will remain the every day outfielder in right field. The more interesting question is in the infield. The Cardinals recently acquired Julio Lugo who will almost certainly start against lefties at either shortstop or second base. They also just got Mark DeRosa back from the disabled list. DeRosa could play any of the infield position but is most likely to play third base until Troy Glaus comes back. Glaus could be back in a matter of days which would push DeRosa to second base and Skip Schumaker to the bench. It should be interesting to see how it all falls out.

The Pirates Trade Nate McClouth for Prospects!

In an unexpected move for the Pirates, they traded their All-Star center fielder, Nate McClouth to the Atlanta Braves for three prospects. Even more unexpected is that the Braves did not have to part with Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward who are their top prospects. This is not the typical dump deal. The Pirates had McClouth signed to a very reasonable contract.

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:
09:$2M, 10:$4.5M, 11:$6.5M, 12:$10.65M club option ($1.25M buyout)

So the Pirates gave up an inexpensive player who is also considered one of their best players. The prospects are being reported as the following by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette with quotes from Pittsburgh General Manager Neal Huntington:

On trading McLouth: "This may be the toughest decision we have made in my time with the organization. Nate is a quality player and person but, as we have said several times, tough decisions will need to be made as we build and sustain a championship-caliber organization. Nate has worked as hard as any player to become a starting major league Player, proving wrong anyone who may have doubted him. When we signed Nate to a long-term contract, we did so with the intent on having him remain part of our core of homegrown talent. But the quality and quantity of talent we are receiving in this trade moves us closer to our goal of building that sustainable championship-caliber club and compelled us to move a very good player and an outstanding young man."

On Locke: "An intriguing young left-handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major-league starting pitcher."

On Morton: "A power right-handed starting pitcher who is excelling at Class AAA. He is close to being ready for the big leagues and has the upside to become a quality major league starting pitcher."

On Hernandez: "A dynamic player who has the potential to become an above-average major league outfielder. He is a quality athlete with plus speed and plays above-average defense. He has bat speed and the upside to develop into a productive table setter."

The Pirates have called up their number one prospect, Andrew McCutchen. He will start in center field. This may be one of the underlying reasons that the Pirates made this trade. Perhaps they believed that McClouth would have a problem with moving out of center field.

I'll have a more complete report on all the prospects involved a bit later.

Question: Can Liriano and Lester Recover?

Dear Jon,

My name is Max Estes and I found your website through mlbtraderumors.com on Monday and I REALLY enjoy it! I have two conundrums in a extremely competitive head-to-head 7x7 (Runs, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, IP, W, L. Save, Strike Outs, ERA and WHIP) keeper (10 keepers plus 1 minor leaguer) league of which I am the commissioner. I could use your guidance. The categories I'm having some trouble in are AVG, SLG, Saves and sometimes SB. I received an offer from another manager where I would get Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano and Matt Lindstrom for Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester.

I was thinking about taking out Verlander for either Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard. What is your opinion of those trades. Also I have an offer of I get Marco Scuturo for Gary Sheffield. I need an IF more than an OF but I could use the power. If you need any more information or more players on my team please let me know. Thank you in advance for helping me.

Max Estes

Hey Max,

Thanks for checking out the site and deciding to stick round. I appreciate it a lot. I need to thank Tim Dierkes, he's been sending a lot of readers my way lately. But to your trades...

Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano, and Matt Lindstrom

for

Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester

You did not include any prices or rounds so I'm going to assume that they do not matter in regards to who you choose to keep. If that assumption is wrong just let me know but for now I'm going to evaluate the trade as if you could keep anyone you choose without penalty.

Carlos Beltran is the best player in the deal by far, despite Hunter Pence having his strongest season yet. Unfortunately, being a Houston Astro sort of limits the Runs and RBI potential. A Rule of Thumb for Fantasy Baseball trading is that if you gain the best player in the deal you win the trade. They call it a Rule of Thumb because that isn't always a very accurate measure. Both players are hitting for very good averages, both are hitting for power (although not as much as we might hope as far as homeruns are concerned), and both are stealing a few bases. Beltran is just better in all of those categories. Beltran would be an upgrade over Pence but not a mind-blowing one.



Francisco Liriano is having a very tough season. His control is way off which is much more damaging than any perceived loss of stuff. He is having a degree of bad luck but a FIP of 4.88 indicates it is a bit more than just bad luck. He also seems to have abandoned his change-up. Which is resulting in more flyballs hit on his fastball, which resulted in a higher homerun rate. That's a major mistake for him and something that is easily fixed assuming he hasn't lost the feel for the pitch somehow. This could have a lot to do with Joe Mauer's absence for most of the first two months of the season. It's hard to judge based on one start but in his May 25th start his control seemed to be back and the result was zero walks, and seven strikeouts (and 11 hits) in just four innings. There were also small signs of recovery in the few starts before that one. It is based on a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet Liriano is about to enter a very strong stretch of pitching.

You would also receive the Florida Marlins closer, Matt Lindstrom. He may be a closer but Lindstrom is not going to help you in any category except saves. His control has been about as bad as it could be. I'm shocked he hasn't lost the role to one of the Marlins' many prospects. But you need saves and he does get them.

You would be giving up Justin Verlander who is pitching great and Jon Lester who has had disappointing results thus far. Believe it or not Verlander has been pretty unfortunate this season. His BABIP is bloated at .339 and his LOB percentage is just 64.9 compared to his career mark of 71.5 percent. In short, Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. As bad as Verlander's luck has been, Jon Lester's has been much worse. Lester's .379 BABIP has been a huge hindrance to his owners. That and a 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has ruined his results. Balls that were harmless infield flies last year (12.9% in 2008, 4.8% in 2009) are now being launched out of the park. This is going to turn around soon. It has to, or Lester could be the causulty of the return of John Smoltz who is looking very good in his rehab starts. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden pitching great in the minors.

You are going to lose quite a bit from your pitching staff if you make this deal but I understand that this is your strength. Exchanging Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard (both are pitching pretty good) for Verlander would help make it a bit better for you and still provide your trading partner a significant upgrade over what he was getting before. If you can get him to make the switch from Verlander I would do the deal. It has some risk, but I think you'll get enough of an upgrade where you need it (SLG, Saves, and Stolen Bases) to make it worth while. This is especially true if you believe (as I do) that Francisco Liriano will turn it around. Liriano is the key. If you believe, you can do this trade. If you don't believe then you should keep trying to re-work it.

As for the Marcus Scutaro and Gary Sheffield deal, I would just hang on to Sheffield. Scutaro is having a nice season, but I think it will all be downhill from here for him. Sheffield is going to get to play a lot and when he's playing well there are few better.

Good luck Max!

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.

The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.

This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	Padres	8.29	3.04	2.73	1.01	1.42	0.339	0.70	3.69
2003	Padres	7.21	3.79	1.90	1.53	1.31	0.263	0.78	4.99
2004	Padres	9.36	2.87	3.26	0.70	1.20	0.310	0.84	3.14
2005	Padres	9.58	2.22	4.32	0.80	1.04	0.288	0.77	2.89
2005	Padres	6.23	6.23	1.00	4.15	2.54	0.394	0.37	9.71
2006	Padres	9.56	2.76	3.47	1.02	1.23	0.316	0.73	3.51
2006	Padres	3.38	1.69	2.00	1.69	2.25	0.434	0.66	5.40
2007	Padres	9.67	2.74	3.53	0.52	1.06	0.286	0.78	2.84
2008	Padres	8.60	3.06	2.81	0.88	1.18	0.285	0.82	3.60
2009	Padres	10.13	2.79	3.63	1.03	1.11	0.288	0.71	3.35

Winter Meetings Update

The Winter Meetings were quite active today with some expected moves and some not so expected. The rumors of even more moves were running rampant. I've been writing updates for the RotoExperts.com blog all day between sessions with my 11-month old niece who has become quite the mimic. She can almost perfectly imitate her grandfather's smoking cough, it is even more hilarious than it sounds. I'm summarizing all the moves here, check out the links for the complete analysis.

Today's Moves

The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million.
The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million. The signing is pending a physical for Everett. Believe it or not this is an okay move for the Tigers even if it does nothing for fantasy leaguers. The Tigers could not afford (or at least were unwilling) to sign one of the better free agents. They were engaged in trade talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire shortstop Jack Wilson. Trading for Wilson would have been a much worse move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers reached contract agreements with free agents Casey Blake (3B, LAD) and Mark Loretta (2B, LAD). Blake received a three-year contract worth $17.1 million. Loretta received a one-year deal worth $1.25 million to act as the teams utility man.
These are decent deal for the Dodgers who have made lots of terrible free agent deals in recent years . Both are signed relatively cheaply and not for many years. They also aren't paid so much that they couldn't be moved to the bench or another team should a younger player emerge.

Francisco Rodriguez was expecting to sign a bank breaking contract as the best closer on the market. Instead he has agreed to a nice but not groundbreaking deal with the New York Mets who played him and the market almost perfectly. K-Rod's deal is for three-years and $37 million.
Rodriguez is one of the best closers in baseball and an excellent fantasy option. However, it is important that owners know that Rodriguez is not the fireballer he was a few years ago. Rather than throwing his fastball 97-98 mph, he throws it 93-94. It may not seem like a huge distinction but it is to major league hitters. He claims to have taken some off his fastball to increase his control. If that's true it isn't working. In 2008 his K/9 fell from over twelve four straight years to 10.14 in 2008. At the same time his BB/9 has risen to nearly 4.50 the last two seasons.

The re-building baltimore Orioles opened a spot for the best prospect in the minors when they traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers - infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.
Ryan Freel should be a versatile reserve for the Orioles playing all three outfield positions and second and third base when necessary. Freel has decent on-base skills and good speed that he uses to steal bases at about a 75 percent success rate. Freel is an excellent pick-up in deeper leagues for his versatility and stolen bases. In shallower leagues he doesn't have much value unless he gets more consistent playing time.

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade

There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:

Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.

If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs (remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).