Filling Chase Utley's Shoes

I received the following e-mail this morning:

5X5 H2H league (OBP instead of Avg). My free agent choices are M.Tejada, Jose Lopez, Beckham, Pennington, Peralta, or S. Rodriguez. Obviously Utley is my MI (behind Kinsler/Rollins).

Whaddya think?
Big Mike

Tough decision. At least you have a mix of possibilities. You have the fading veteran in Tejada. The underachieving veteran in Lopez. The struggling phenom in Beckham. The slap-hitting speedster in Pennington, the disappointing Peralta, and the underutilized youngster in Sean Rodriguez.

Part of the decision has to be based on how your team is doing and what your category needs are.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - Tejada no longer provides much power. He hits for a fairly empty average thanks to being part of the underachieving Orioles lineup. In your league he is nearly worthless with just a .313 OBP.

Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Lopez probably has more upside than Tejada at this point but his stats are even worse. He has a slash line of .244/.269/.337 and is showing zero power. Definitely pass.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - Beckham is the most promising of the players on this list. He was expected to be a force in Chicago but has slumped through most of the season. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his rookie season. However, his contact rates are still pretty good and there is definitely a degree of bad luck. Unfortunately he does not walk much. There have been some signs of life this week, he hit his first homer in quite some time and seems to be coming around. If you can afford to embrace some risk this might be a good place to go.

Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics - Pennington is a mediocre hitter but he steals bases and walks enough to justify his reputation as a leadoff hitter. He has a slash of .247/.323/.359 and like the others has displayed little power. But mediocre is better than lousy and that makes him a real possibility.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Peralta showed some promise a few years ago but seemed to lose it when he was moved off shortstop. Perhaps his defensive position is like Sampson's hair. Still, he has more powers than the others have shown (though nothing to go crazy about). He's a possibility if we're desperate for any homeruns we can get.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays - Rodriguez hasn't been that great overall but has been hot in June. Hitting .292 with four home runs and three stolen bases as of the 26th. His potential is second only to Beckham on this list. I have a hunch he'd have been better playing everyday than he is sharing a job, but that's just a hunch. He's the hot hand.

So here are your options:

Shoot for the Stars - Gordon Beckham who has shown signs of life lately.

Take the stolen bases and the best OBP you can get - Cliff Pennington, probably the safest bet.

Desperate for Power - Jhonny Peralta, hope he gets back what he lost in the second half.

Play the hot hand - Sean Rodriguez, hope he keeps it up.

I tend to be an embrace risk type of fantasy owner and would grab Beckham. Play it safe types should probably grab Pennington. If you believe whoever you pick up is short term, Rodriguez is probably the one.

Good luck.

NL Outfielders, The Indians Re-Building and Lots More

I'm going to be posting more frequently from now until the end of the season. The posts may be short and heavy on links but they should be of interest for fantasy leaguers in all types of situations.

Will Outfielders Be Scarce in NL-Only Leagues in 2010?
A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is too deep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think.

The Indians' Re-Building Project
Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

SB Nation Gets a Facelift
The homepage is looking spiffy but the various team blogs are still sporting that cookie-cutter look that I hate about most blog networks.

WHYGAVS Looks at Which Pirates They Were Wrong About

This year, four immediate players come to mind.

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Garrett Jones
3. Zach Duke
4. Andy LaRoche

Why Gordon Beckham Is Not the Rookie of the Year
There hasn’t been much to dislike about Gordon Beckham’s rookie campaign with the White Sox. He’s sprayed the ball all over the field to a tune of a .808 OPS. His defense has improved with every game he’s played at third base. His at-bat music is awesome. And he plays the game with a confident cockiness that you don’t see from many seasoned veterans.

Who Has the Stuff?
Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time (that would be Joel Zumaya, of course) But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground, with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years.

Name	StuffRV
A.J. Burnett	-46
Felix Hernandez	-31
Zack Greinke	-26
Edwin Jackson	-26
Ubaldo Jimenez	-26
Chad Billingsley	-23
Brian Wilson	-22
Brandon Morrow	-21
Roy Halladay	-21
Matt Garza	-20
Dave Bush	15
Jeff Suppan	17
Braden Looper	19
Livan Hernandez	20
Greg Maddux	23

Who the Hell is Carlos Rosa?
I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

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Tommy Hanson, Gordon Beckham, and Andrew McCutchen Arrive

Wednesday was a big day for top prospects. Tommy Hanson, the Atlanta Braves stud pitching prospect was called up and will start for the Braves on Saturday. Gordon Beckham, the stud shortstop prospect of the Chicago White Sox was recalled and will start nearly everyday at a variety of positions. Andrew McCutchen, the stud center field prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates will now roam the major league outfield.

Tommy Hanson and the Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson was called up by the Braves as part of series of moves. They traded for the Pirates' center fielder, Nate McClouth. Then they released 305-game winner, and future Hall-of-Famer, Tom Glavine. It seems this was mostly a cost-cutting measure as Glavine was due a significant bonus when activated. This move looks pretty classless to me. I understand that business is business, but Tom Glavine deserved better from the Braves. These are not the Braves they used to be. Kris Medlen was scheduled to start on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, but has been moved to the bullpen in favor of Hanson.

Hanson has been dominating at Triple-A Gwinnett. He was clearly ready to take the next step in his development as a potential major league ace. Despite his potential, Hanson is still more likely than not to suffer through the ups and downs that all young starters experience. That said, you would be a fool not to pick him up, especially if you have the ability to stash him on your bench. Milwaukee is an awful tough team to face in your first start. He induces a lot of infield fly balls. He is fairly neutral as to whether he is a ground ball or a fly ball pitcher but take out the infield fly balls and he leans more towards being a worm killer. He does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Braves (R)	9.75	1.57	6.22	0.35	0.224	0.99	0.308	75.20%	2.12
2007	Braves (A)	11.10	3.21	3.46	0.74	0.199	1.05	0.28	73.70%	3.12
2007	Braves (A+)	9.60	4.80	2.00	1.50	0.239	1.42	0.29	74.70%	5.03
2008	Braves (A+)	11.03	2.48	4.45	0.00	0.117	0.65	0.19	80.70%	1.95
2008	Braves (AA)	10.47	3.77	2.78	0.83	0.202	1.13	0.273	75.40%	3.6
2009	Braves (AAA)	12.21	2.31	5.29	0.68	0.176	0.86	0.265	83.30%	2.42

Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates filled the gaping hole left in their lineup and in center field with top prospect, Andrew McCutchen. He was probably ready to get a shot at the major leagues but he is more of a leadoff hitter than a middle of the order player. He's been compared to Ricky Henderson a lot, but that is tremendously overstating things. He should get on base at a decent clip and steal bases, but he won't be the kind of roto-guy that can get you 12 points in steals all by himself. This leaves the Pirates lineup seriously lacking in power hitters.

I understand why the Pirates would want to trade McClouth. They can't really expect him to be a part of their next contending team which is probably still three or four years off. But McClouth was signed to a very reasonable deal. They should have shopped him around rather than trade him so quickly. To trade him for second tier prospects cheats the franchise and the fans. One top prospect would have been a much better deal for them than multiple prospects. Especially when they already have a roster (at more than one level) full of similar players. If the Indians can get Matt LaPorta for a couple of months of CC Sabathia, doesn't a cheap and signed McClouth have a similar value?

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Pirates (A)	8.50%	20.10%	0.356	0.446	0.155	6.5	0.339	0.369
2006	Pirates (AA)	8.50%	26.70%	0.373	0.467	0.16	2.7	0.385	0.378
2007	Pirates (AA)	8.80%	18.30%	0.327	0.386	0.126	6.5	0.298	0.332
2007	Pirates (AAA)	5.60%	16.40%	0.347	0.418	0.104	3.6	0.364	0.337
2008	Pirates (AAA)	11.70%	17.00%	0.372	0.398	0.115	5.4	0.327	0.347
2009	Pirates (AAA)	7.80%	11.90%	0.361	0.493	0.189	8.1	0.329	0.383

Gordon Beckham and the Chicago White Sox

Let me tell you how much I loath Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox manager. A lot. He's a complete idiot. The first thing he does when the White Sox announce that Gordon Beckham is coming up (a move Guillen has been very much against) is try to crash the kid's confidence (I don't think it will work, but that is not the point) by telling everyone that he questions Beckham's ability to play at multiple positions. He also refuses to just give the kid a spot and let him stay there. Instead he'll rotate around the infield so that Chris Getz of all players can stay in the lineup. The White Sox will be much better when they get off their butts and fire Guillen. No manager has ever deserved it more.

To make room on the 25-man roster for Beckham the Sox have designated Wilson Betemit for assignment. Tough to believe they won't find a trading partner to take on Betemit. He could find himself back with the New York Yankees. Beckham is a very disciplined hitter for such a young player. He does not strike out much. He doesn't draw many walks but when you're hitting .458 at Triple-A, why bother? He should hit for decent power (in the 10-15 range) and steal more bases (that's Guillen's thing, stealing bases) than he did in the minors.

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2008	White Sox (A)	7.90%	12.10%	0.365	0.500	0.190	2.7	0.313	0.379
2009	White Sox (AA)	8.70%	16.30%	0.366	0.497	0.197	2.7	0.336	0.391
2009	White Sox (AAA)	0.00%	8.30%	0.440	0.625	0.167	4.1	0.500	0.469

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.

The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.

This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	Padres	8.29	3.04	2.73	1.01	1.42	0.339	0.70	3.69
2003	Padres	7.21	3.79	1.90	1.53	1.31	0.263	0.78	4.99
2004	Padres	9.36	2.87	3.26	0.70	1.20	0.310	0.84	3.14
2005	Padres	9.58	2.22	4.32	0.80	1.04	0.288	0.77	2.89
2005	Padres	6.23	6.23	1.00	4.15	2.54	0.394	0.37	9.71
2006	Padres	9.56	2.76	3.47	1.02	1.23	0.316	0.73	3.51
2006	Padres	3.38	1.69	2.00	1.69	2.25	0.434	0.66	5.40
2007	Padres	9.67	2.74	3.53	0.52	1.06	0.286	0.78	2.84
2008	Padres	8.60	3.06	2.81	0.88	1.18	0.285	0.82	3.60
2009	Padres	10.13	2.79	3.63	1.03	1.11	0.288	0.71	3.35

Sleeper Alert: Gordon Beckham (from the Waiver Wire)

The Waiver (Wire) is a column I will be writing for Crucial Sports this season. It should appear on Mondays. It will feature write-ups of players that are available in a lot of leagues. I think you'll find it very useful. You can click the link above to check out the most recent version.

This week one of the player's featured is Gordon Beckham. His performance this spring is making it difficult for the Chicago White Sox to settle for one of their more mediocre options. This is just a small sample from a much larger article.

Gordon Beckham 2B Chicago White Sox

He belongs in the big leagues. Every scout and general manager that has seen Gordon Beckham play this spring has said that he looks ready. He has just 56 at-bats at single-A but White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams would love him to begin the season as the starting second baseman. Though it seems unlikely, Beckham only has to be a better option that the underwhelming group of Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, and Brent Lillibridge. Beckham came from the University of Georgia, which has a level of play comparable to the lower minors. He projects to hit for average and power with the speed to steal bases. He was a shortstop at the University of Georgia but the switch to second should not be a problem. Beckham hit .411 with 28 homers and 77 RBI in 71 games for the Bulldogs. He also stole 17 bases. In 14 games at Class A for the White Sox he hit .310 with 3 homers and 8 RBI. He then went on to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .394 with 3 homers and 13 RBI in 18 games. As of his first ten appearances this spring, he has hit .364 with two homers, five doubles, and six RBI. He belongs in the big leagues.