Showing posts with label Andrew McCutchen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew McCutchen. Show all posts

Sunday, February 24, 2013

The First Pick of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Is...


My friend Derek Ambrosino at the Hard Ball Times recently posted an article called "Who is 2013's Top Dog?" which debates which player should be drafted first in re-draft mixed leagues this season. To his eyes there are only three candidates - Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.

I agree that those three should be candidates. However, I will add three more names for consideration - Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen. Kemp, Cano and McCutchen are generally going with the fourth, fifth and sixth picks in one order or another but a case can be made that they are each better selections than at least two of Derek's choices.

Before jumping into each player's qualifications I think it is important to decide what is important to acquire in a first round pick, especially an early one. The first pick in the draft would ideally have a track record of success, annual statistics that typically place the player within the top 10-15 players overall, a clean bill of health, a secure position on his team and contribute to five categories. If you are lucky, that player will also be in his prime years of performance and own the potential for further upside in his statistics.

Ryan Braun is at the top of Mock Draft Central's ADP Report.  Braun won the 2011 MVP award and has been one of the top offensive players in baseball for years and contributes to all five offensive categories. He was worth $50 in 2012 according to BaseballHQ.com values. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last six years and 50-plus the last two seasons. He has averaged over 600 at-bats the last five years. He is definitely in the prime of his career and signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. The only real negative is regarding the suspicion of PED use and the possibility of suspension. After beating the rap before the 2012 season, Braun was one of the names connected to the BioGenesis Clinic. If Braun missed 50 games due to suspension would he still have first round value? Probably, but I certainly would not be happy to have used the first pick of the draft on him.

Miguel Cabrera is ranked second by MDC's ADP Report. He won the 2012 MVP Award and achieved the Triple Crown last season. Cabrera has been worth at least $30 in seven of the last eight years. HQ valued him at $42 in 2012 and at no less than $36 the last three seasons. He has batted no worse than .324 with 30 homers in each of the last four seasons. He has not had fewer than 548 at-bats since 2004. He is still just 29-years old and in the prime of his career. Last season he moved back to third base so he qualifies at a premium position. Cabrera does not steal bases and that is pretty much the only flaw in his game. If you are hunting for a problem you might knock him for some occasional issues related to alcohol but he has not had an issue with that in the last few years.The lack of stolen bases is unfortunate but Cabrera is still an excellent option.

Mike Trout was the stat guy choice for the 2012 MVP. He had a Rookie-of-the-Year season better than anyone else has ever had. He hit for average, for power, scored runs, drove in runs and stole bases almost at will. BaseballHQ valued him at $49 in 2012 and $0 in his 123 at-bat audition in 2011. If Trout did everything at the same rate he did in 2012 over the entire 2013 season he would easily be the number one choice, almost without debate since he would gain more than a month of at-bats at that MVP level rate of performance. many analysts have pointed out that even with some significant regression to his 2012 statistics Trout could still be an easy first round value with an extra 100-plus at-bats added to his season totals. However, Trout, prior to the 2012 season had never displayed the 30-homer power he achieved in 2012. In fact he had never hit more than the 17 he hit at three combined levels in 2011. As Derek pointed out, it isn't unusual for a young player to show big improvement but it is not typical to make such a huge advance in a player's rookie season.Trout may be a great player in the making but one huge season does not make him an ideal first overall pick.

Matt Kemp was the 2011 MVP Runner-up to Ryan Braun. He was given an astounding value of $62 by BaseballHQ in 2011 but just $24 in his injury-plagued 2012 season. Kemp began the 2012 season with a monster month of April but an early May hamstring strain (which he tried to play through) basically put him out of action until the middle of July. Kemp has been worth at least $31 in four of the last six seasons and no less than the $21 he earned in 2010. He usually contributes in all five offensive categories and is one of the rare players capable of achieving 40-plus in both homers and steals. The Dodgers have him signed for the next several years. Kemp is considered a crucial part of the Dodger's core. A player coming off an injury-shortened season is not an ideal first overall pick but Kemp's upside potential is as high or higher than any of the players under consideration.

Andrew McCutchen is just 26-years old but already considered one of the best in the game. He has shown power gains three years running. He has fantastic speed and has spoken publicly this spring regarding his desire to improve his base-stealing techniques.The coveted 30/30 season could be in his future.He was worth $43 according to HQ in 2012 and at least $27 in each of the last three seasons. He hasn't had fewer than 570 at-bats in the last three seasons. He contributes to all of the offensive categories. McCutchen doesn't have a long track record but in his four major league seasons has shown steady improvement while providing excellent fantasy stats. Of the players under consideration, McCutchen has the highest probability of a huge breakout season. None of the MDC drafters took McCutchen before the third pick of the draft but he is capable of delivering a season with that level of value.

Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and the best player on the New York Yankees. He is an annual MVP candidate. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last three seasons and has done so while manning second base, a premium fantasy position. Unfortunately, he does not steal many bases. His value comes from very high batting averages and 30-homer power. Statistically he is probably a more appropriate pick for the mid to late picks of the first round but for those owners that prefer to use early picks on scarce positions Cano is a very safe option.

The choice here is for Ryan Braun but as Spring Training continues and Matt Kemp proves himself healthy the decision could change.For now I believe the MDC drafters have it nearly correct. The key difference is that I would not choose Mike Trout in a re-draft league with a top five pick over the other candidates listed here.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Tommy Hanson, Gordon Beckham, and Andrew McCutchen Arrive

Wednesday was a big day for top prospects. Tommy Hanson, the Atlanta Braves stud pitching prospect was called up and will start for the Braves on Saturday. Gordon Beckham, the stud shortstop prospect of the Chicago White Sox was recalled and will start nearly everyday at a variety of positions. Andrew McCutchen, the stud center field prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates will now roam the major league outfield.

Tommy Hanson and the Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson was called up by the Braves as part of series of moves. They traded for the Pirates' center fielder, Nate McClouth. Then they released 305-game winner, and future Hall-of-Famer, Tom Glavine. It seems this was mostly a cost-cutting measure as Glavine was due a significant bonus when activated. This move looks pretty classless to me. I understand that business is business, but Tom Glavine deserved better from the Braves. These are not the Braves they used to be. Kris Medlen was scheduled to start on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, but has been moved to the bullpen in favor of Hanson.

Hanson has been dominating at Triple-A Gwinnett. He was clearly ready to take the next step in his development as a potential major league ace. Despite his potential, Hanson is still more likely than not to suffer through the ups and downs that all young starters experience. That said, you would be a fool not to pick him up, especially if you have the ability to stash him on your bench. Milwaukee is an awful tough team to face in your first start. He induces a lot of infield fly balls. He is fairly neutral as to whether he is a ground ball or a fly ball pitcher but take out the infield fly balls and he leans more towards being a worm killer. He does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park.

Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP
LOB% FIP
2006 Braves (R) 9.75 1.57 6.22 0.35 0.224 0.99 0.308 75.20% 2.12
2007 Braves (A) 11.10 3.21 3.46 0.74 0.199 1.05 0.28 73.70% 3.12
2007 Braves (A+) 9.60 4.80 2.00 1.50 0.239 1.42 0.29 74.70% 5.03
2008 Braves (A+) 11.03 2.48 4.45 0.00 0.117 0.65 0.19 80.70% 1.95
2008 Braves (AA) 10.47 3.77 2.78 0.83 0.202 1.13 0.273 75.40% 3.6
2009 Braves (AAA) 12.21 2.31 5.29 0.68 0.176 0.86 0.265 83.30% 2.42



Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates filled the gaping hole left in their lineup and in center field with top prospect, Andrew McCutchen. He was probably ready to get a shot at the major leagues but he is more of a leadoff hitter than a middle of the order player. He's been compared to Ricky Henderson a lot, but that is tremendously overstating things. He should get on base at a decent clip and steal bases, but he won't be the kind of roto-guy that can get you 12 points in steals all by himself. This leaves the Pirates lineup seriously lacking in power hitters.

I understand why the Pirates would want to trade McClouth. They can't really expect him to be a part of their next contending team which is probably still three or four years off. But McClouth was signed to a very reasonable deal. They should have shopped him around rather than trade him so quickly. To trade him for second tier prospects cheats the franchise and the fans. One top prospect would have been a much better deal for them than multiple prospects. Especially when they already have a roster (at more than one level) full of similar players. If the Indians can get Matt LaPorta for a couple of months of CC Sabathia, doesn't a cheap and signed McClouth have a similar value?

Season Team BB% K% OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
2006 Pirates (A) 8.50% 20.10% 0.356 0.446 0.155 6.5 0.339 0.369
2006 Pirates (AA) 8.50% 26.70% 0.373 0.467 0.16 2.7 0.385 0.378
2007 Pirates (AA) 8.80% 18.30% 0.327 0.386 0.126 6.5 0.298 0.332
2007 Pirates (AAA) 5.60% 16.40% 0.347 0.418 0.104 3.6 0.364 0.337
2008 Pirates (AAA) 11.70% 17.00% 0.372 0.398 0.115 5.4 0.327 0.347
2009 Pirates (AAA) 7.80% 11.90% 0.361 0.493 0.189 8.1 0.329 0.383

Gordon Beckham and the Chicago White Sox

Let me tell you how much I loath Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox manager. A lot. He's a complete idiot. The first thing he does when the White Sox announce that Gordon Beckham is coming up (a move Guillen has been very much against) is try to crash the kid's confidence (I don't think it will work, but that is not the point) by telling everyone that he questions Beckham's ability to play at multiple positions. He also refuses to just give the kid a spot and let him stay there. Instead he'll rotate around the infield so that Chris Getz of all players can stay in the lineup. The White Sox will be much better when they get off their butts and fire Guillen. No manager has ever deserved it more.

To make room on the 25-man roster for Beckham the Sox have designated Wilson Betemit for assignment. Tough to believe they won't find a trading partner to take on Betemit. He could find himself back with the New York Yankees. Beckham is a very disciplined hitter for such a young player. He does not strike out much. He doesn't draw many walks but when you're hitting .458 at Triple-A, why bother? He should hit for decent power (in the 10-15 range) and steal more bases (that's Guillen's thing, stealing bases) than he did in the minors.

Season Team BB% K% OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
2008 White Sox (A) 7.90% 12.10% 0.365 0.500 0.190 2.7 0.313 0.379
2009 White Sox (AA) 8.70% 16.30% 0.366 0.497 0.197 2.7 0.336 0.391
2009 White Sox (AAA) 0.00% 8.30% 0.440 0.625 0.167 4.1 0.500 0.469