Showing posts with label Robinson Cano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robinson Cano. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Is Chase Utley a Safe 2013 Fantasy Baseball Pick?


That an aging and increasingly brittle second baseman such as Chase Utley must still be considered one of the best available at the position is both an acknowledgement of his talent and of the lack of offensive ability at the middle infield positions. Once past the third tier (all of my second base tiers are listed below) the talent drops off into the undesirable range very quickly. There is some promising talent on the way but until it becomes proven they won't be of much use in shallower mixed leagues. Jedd Gyorko of the Padres, Kolten Wong of the Cardinals, Delino Deshields of the Astros, Jonathan Schoop of the Orioles and Brock Holt of the Red Sox are some of the talents closet to contributing to fantasy teams.

Gyorko and Wong could start the season in the major leagues. I think Gyorko could be a major rookie of the year candidate and he is one of my favorite deep NL-only picks this year. I am not as big on Wong. Wong has skills that are improving but gets a lot of value from defense and intangibles which will not be an asset to most fantasy teams.

What are we looking for from our second basemen? It used to be that if he hit for a decent average and stole a few bases fantasy owners would be happy. But times changed and power became a more frequent requirement from the position. Stolen bases are almost a given these days but the power we enjoyed last decade is fading fast. These days we'll take batting average, decent power and a smattering of stolen bases and not complain too much.

Utley of course was once a lock to be one of the top two or three at the position. He hit for average, got on base, hit for power, stole bases and played excellent defense. He still does all of those things but has become very injury prone - mostly his bad knees. He has changed his workout routines in an effort to be better prepared for the season but I would hesitate to count on him for more than 400 at-bats and it could be less than that. Last season in 301 at-bats (362 plate appearances) Utley delivered a .256/.365/429 batting line with 48 runs, 45 RBI, 11 homeruns and 11 stolen bases. That is not so terrible when batting average has become less of a priority to major league hitters but it is far from what Utley could once provide.

What those numbers tell us is that Utley can indeed be productive for as long as he is on the field. Certainly on an at-bat to at-bat basis Utley is better than most at the position. Fantasy Owners can feel secure selecting Utley as long as they do not pay for more than 400 at-bats and have a plan to cover his almost inevitable time on the disabled list.

Tier One Second Basemen

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees - Cano is the best bat at the position by far. He hits like a potential batting champ and is a near lock to provide around 30 homeruns. Typically his Yankees lineups are so good that 100 runs and 100 RBI are always in range. With the deluge of injuries and the lack of established replacements the run and RBI totals are not as certain.

Tier Two Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - Only the occasional injury and last year's slump keep him from joining Cano in the first tier of the position. He provides average, some power and stolen bases and bats near the top of an excellent lineup. 

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - He has been a bit inconsistent but Kinsler can do it all. He is a solid bet for an annual 20/20 season and 30-plus homers are very possible.

Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays - The Rays refuse to leave him at one position. He began the offseason as the starting shortstop but was moved back to second when they acquired Yunel Escobar. Then he was placed back in the outfield when the Rays acquired Kelly Johnson. He hits for average and is usually good for close to 20 homers and 20 steals.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians - Kipnis ran into some growing pains in the second half of the 2012 season but still put up great overall numbers. He has 30 homer potential and should steal at least 20 bases if not the 31 he totaled in 2012.

Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks - Consistency is not his bag but he is usually good for 20-plus homers and a double-digit smattering of stolen bases. The Diamondbacks love to run so he could steal 20-plus bases again.

Tier Three Second Basemen

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros - A lack of power and a lousy lineup are keeping him from ranking better. But we will take the 30-plus stolen bases all day. He actually does have a little pop for a little guy but that is not his game and expecting more than a few homers would be to court disappointment.

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers - A massive slump through the first half the 2012 season has eroded his fantasy value a bit. He was pretty much his old self in the second half. There were actually signs of him becoming a better, more patient hitter.

Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - Is Phillips the coolest guy in the game? He's good for close to 20/20 every season and should have a big year in the souped up Reds lineup.

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - Talented but injury prone.

Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves - Usually one of the positions's better power options, he slumped badly in 2012. He seemed to start pressing to break the slump which only made it worse. He is the type of player that can fade quickly so be cautious selecting him.

Tier Four Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels - He has never seemed to reach his full potential as a possible batting average star with some power and speed. But he is an excellent pick this season if for nothing but his place in the middle of the Angels lineup.

Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates - He should hit for a decent batting average with a dozen or so homers and a few stolen bases. He no longer has the talented Brock Holt keeping an eye on his job.

Kelly Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays - His batting average will be lousy but he has 20/20 potential. It appears the Rays will start him at second base but back him up well.

Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals - A shoulder injury that he chose to rehab without surgery has some analysts worried. It has the potential to impact his power numbers. Steve Lombardozzi is ready to pounce on his job.

Jeff Keppinger, Chicago White Sox - He hits for average with a few homers and steals. He qualifies all over the infield and could change positions depending on the production of players like Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham. Carlos Sanchez is almost ready for a shot at the majors and he has big stolen base potential.

Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - He was a big disappointment in 2012. He is expected to hit for average with some power and some stolen bases. Some people expect that anyway.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - He looks healthy this spring but we've seen this before. I would not count on him to play the entire season. If healthy he should steal some bases assuming his legs are still good.

Tier Five Second Basemen

Eric Young Jr., Colorado Rockies - New Rockies manager Walt Weiss seems determined to create more of a role for the talented and versatile Young. If he gets at-bats he should steal a ton of bases. It would not take too much imagination to see him starting at second base or in the outfield at some point this season.

Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers - This is probably the last player on the list that I would want to draft. Everyone below this would make me just a little sick. He has some power and will steal some bases. He could have a really good season in Detroit.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - After a fast start to his career Beckham has done nothing but disappoint. He has some power and can steal bases but he is not a disciplined enough hitter to deliver for fantasy owners.

Daniel Murphy, New York Mets - He does not hit for much power or steal many bases but he does hit for a decent batting average. He is probably a bit underrated due to the Mets lousy lineup.

Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants - An excellent contact hitter with some on-base skill. He hits a few homers and steals a few bases. His teams always seem to be searching for his replacement. Your fantasy team will not be any different.

Maicer Izturis, Toronto Blue Jays - Battling Emilio Bonafacio for the role of starting second baseman. He is better suited a bench role and that is likely his destiny.

Tier Six Second Basemen

Tyler Greene, Houston Astros - He is only a decent hitter but he has the power and speed to provide fantasy owners with double digit homers and steals. He is projected as the starting shortstop for the Astros.

Logan Forsythe, San Diego Padres - He had better hope that Jedd Gyorko struggles defensively this spring. Gyorko can hit circles around Forsythe. Forsythe has a tiny bit of power and some stolen base ability but is not much of a contributor to a fantasy team.

Darwin Barney, Chicago Cubs - A defensive whiz who has managed decent batting averages and some stolen bases. He is not worthless but his value is only the result of the starting role he has no real skills that a fantasy owner would covet.

Donovan Solano, Miami Marlins - He could be the starter for the Marlins now that the team has been decimated. If he is better than average at the position it would be a great season for Solano and still without much fantasy value.

Jamey Carroll, Minnesota Twins - He can hit for average but he may be coming off the ben ch this season as the young Brian Dozier is likely to win the starting shortstop job.

Mark Ellis, Los Angeles Dodgers - He gets on base but that is about it for fantasy owners. I fully expect Dee Gordon to take over at second base at some point this season. The sooner the better.

Alexi Casilla, Baltimore Orioles - The most likely candidate to replace an injured Brian Roberts. He can steal bases and some unrealized power potential.

Jemile Weeks, Oakland Athletics - Battling Scott Sizemore for the second base job after a disappointing season. But based on potential alone he should win the job.

Tier Seven Second Basemen

Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals - Danny Espinosa's potential replacement. He's a gritty gamer type that the Diamondbacks would love.

Chris Getz, Kansas City Royals - He should be sitting on the Royals bench but because manager Ned Yost is in love with him he will continue to battle Giavotella for the starting second baseman job.

Johnny Giavotella, Kansas City Royals - He has the bat to move way up this list. He should hit for an excellent batting average with some power and stolen bases.

DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies - He can hit. He has no power. He has some speed but nothing exciting. But he can hit.

Ryan Roberts, Tampa Bay Rays- He has some power and might be productive if the Rays give him a chance to play.

Ryan Raburn, Detroit Tigers - He looks like a bench player this season. That is probably for the best.

Freddy Sanchez, San Francisco Giants - To rank higher he would have to stay healthy for a few dozen at-bats per season.

Scott Sizemore, Oakland Athletics - Battling for the A's second base job. He has a little power and a some stolen base skills but nothing to get excited about.


Thursday, February 28, 2013

The Expert League Challenge



I have had the privilege of participating in several fantasy baseball and football expert leagues. I have done well in a few of them but unfortunately have yet to actually win one. I plan to change that this season. Whether you participate in Fantasy Baseball or another type of sports betting the goal is always to win. Sometimes you want to win for recognition (as in Expert leagues) and other times you want to bring home the fantasy league pot. In either case the method is pretty much the same – develop a winning strategy and implement it to the best of your ability. 

On Sunday I drafted in two Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge Expert Leagues run by Fantasy Sports R Us. One league was an NL-only with 11 teams and the other a nine team AL-only.  My Strategy in both leagues was fairly simple. Draft at least 200 homeruns, 120 stolen bases, two closers and strikeout starters. You can judge the execution of that strategy for yourself. I was more happy with the AL team than the NL team. I was not nearly as obsessed with the Reds and Yankees as the rosters may make it appear. I failed to acquire the quality of pitching I was hoping for but think I have a solid core in both leagues.

The NL-Only Team

C Rob Brantley, Miami Marlins – showed new on-base skills after joining the Marlins
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – hopefully over his shoulder problems
3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds – a talented player in a great lineup
CI Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals – an underrated power source
2B Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds – a top second basemen
SS Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee Brewers – should see time all over the field and serve as Segura insurance
MI Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals – betting on Espinosa’s shoulder problems
OF Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves – my bet to be a 2014 first round pick
OF Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals – his endurance should be better this season
OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates – a youngster with power and speed
OF Carlos Quentin, San Diego Padres – a powerful hitter who is presently healthy
OF Tony Campana, Arizona Diamondbacks – just for the stolen bases
Utl Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres – my rookie of the year pick
SP Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds – I think he’s an ace starter
SP Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks – trending very well, improved skills
SP Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs – an underrated starting pitcher
SP Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals – him too
SP Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies – put it together in the second half of the 2012 season
MR Heath Bell, Arizona Diamondbacks – betting he finds his way to saves somehow
MR Brandon Lyon, New York Mets – next in line for saves in New York
CL Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals – A top five closer
CL Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies – a top skilled closer
R Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds – If he comes up early he’ll save my horrid middle infield
R Jerry Hairston, 2B, 3B, OF Los Angeles Dodgers – love having reserves that play all over
R Erik Kratz, C, Philadelphia Phillies – should be very productive while Ruiz sits
R Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates – an ace as soon as he gets the call
R Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego Padres – help down the stretch

The AL-Only Team

C Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox – should see more at-bats in a park built for him
1B Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – he may not repeat but 30 homers is a cinch
3B Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics – a sleeper pick after getting caught looking elsewhere
CI Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees – the power is not going anywhere
2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees – worthy of the number one pick in any league
SS Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians – a top shortstop
MI Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers – a quality late round middle infielder
OF Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox – big power potential
OF Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians – a solid player in a very improved lineup
OF Coco Crisp, Oakland Athletics – the stolen base master of the present
OF Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers – a better hitter than most understand
OF Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels – if he hits he should also steal bases
Utl Darin Mastroianni, Minnesota Twins – knows how to get on base and the speed skills for 70 SBs
SP Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers – better than he looked last season
SP Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox – flashed his former stuff last season, finally healthy
SP Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays – a solid pitcher on a great team
SP Vance Worley, Minnesota Twins – a pitcher I like more than you
SP Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics – a minor league strikeout leader with a rotation spot
SP Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners – the park should make him look better than his skills
SP Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – one of my bets to step up big time in 2013
MR Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics – my favorite relief sleeper
CL Brant Balfour, Oakland Athletics – the only closer left on the board
R Ryan Flaherty, 2B, 3B, OF, Baltimore Orioles – versatile and behind a brittle starter
R Matt Dominguez, 3B, Houston Astros – improved his bat skills last season, starting 3B
R Mike Aviles, Cleveland Indians – versatile reserve on a team with many potential holes
R Eduardo Nunez, New York Yankees – a young and versatile player on an aging team
R Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), SP Tampa Bay Rays – the Rays are miracle workers

Sunday, February 24, 2013

The First Pick of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Is...


My friend Derek Ambrosino at the Hard Ball Times recently posted an article called "Who is 2013's Top Dog?" which debates which player should be drafted first in re-draft mixed leagues this season. To his eyes there are only three candidates - Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.

I agree that those three should be candidates. However, I will add three more names for consideration - Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen. Kemp, Cano and McCutchen are generally going with the fourth, fifth and sixth picks in one order or another but a case can be made that they are each better selections than at least two of Derek's choices.

Before jumping into each player's qualifications I think it is important to decide what is important to acquire in a first round pick, especially an early one. The first pick in the draft would ideally have a track record of success, annual statistics that typically place the player within the top 10-15 players overall, a clean bill of health, a secure position on his team and contribute to five categories. If you are lucky, that player will also be in his prime years of performance and own the potential for further upside in his statistics.

Ryan Braun is at the top of Mock Draft Central's ADP Report.  Braun won the 2011 MVP award and has been one of the top offensive players in baseball for years and contributes to all five offensive categories. He was worth $50 in 2012 according to BaseballHQ.com values. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last six years and 50-plus the last two seasons. He has averaged over 600 at-bats the last five years. He is definitely in the prime of his career and signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. The only real negative is regarding the suspicion of PED use and the possibility of suspension. After beating the rap before the 2012 season, Braun was one of the names connected to the BioGenesis Clinic. If Braun missed 50 games due to suspension would he still have first round value? Probably, but I certainly would not be happy to have used the first pick of the draft on him.

Miguel Cabrera is ranked second by MDC's ADP Report. He won the 2012 MVP Award and achieved the Triple Crown last season. Cabrera has been worth at least $30 in seven of the last eight years. HQ valued him at $42 in 2012 and at no less than $36 the last three seasons. He has batted no worse than .324 with 30 homers in each of the last four seasons. He has not had fewer than 548 at-bats since 2004. He is still just 29-years old and in the prime of his career. Last season he moved back to third base so he qualifies at a premium position. Cabrera does not steal bases and that is pretty much the only flaw in his game. If you are hunting for a problem you might knock him for some occasional issues related to alcohol but he has not had an issue with that in the last few years.The lack of stolen bases is unfortunate but Cabrera is still an excellent option.

Mike Trout was the stat guy choice for the 2012 MVP. He had a Rookie-of-the-Year season better than anyone else has ever had. He hit for average, for power, scored runs, drove in runs and stole bases almost at will. BaseballHQ valued him at $49 in 2012 and $0 in his 123 at-bat audition in 2011. If Trout did everything at the same rate he did in 2012 over the entire 2013 season he would easily be the number one choice, almost without debate since he would gain more than a month of at-bats at that MVP level rate of performance. many analysts have pointed out that even with some significant regression to his 2012 statistics Trout could still be an easy first round value with an extra 100-plus at-bats added to his season totals. However, Trout, prior to the 2012 season had never displayed the 30-homer power he achieved in 2012. In fact he had never hit more than the 17 he hit at three combined levels in 2011. As Derek pointed out, it isn't unusual for a young player to show big improvement but it is not typical to make such a huge advance in a player's rookie season.Trout may be a great player in the making but one huge season does not make him an ideal first overall pick.

Matt Kemp was the 2011 MVP Runner-up to Ryan Braun. He was given an astounding value of $62 by BaseballHQ in 2011 but just $24 in his injury-plagued 2012 season. Kemp began the 2012 season with a monster month of April but an early May hamstring strain (which he tried to play through) basically put him out of action until the middle of July. Kemp has been worth at least $31 in four of the last six seasons and no less than the $21 he earned in 2010. He usually contributes in all five offensive categories and is one of the rare players capable of achieving 40-plus in both homers and steals. The Dodgers have him signed for the next several years. Kemp is considered a crucial part of the Dodger's core. A player coming off an injury-shortened season is not an ideal first overall pick but Kemp's upside potential is as high or higher than any of the players under consideration.

Andrew McCutchen is just 26-years old but already considered one of the best in the game. He has shown power gains three years running. He has fantastic speed and has spoken publicly this spring regarding his desire to improve his base-stealing techniques.The coveted 30/30 season could be in his future.He was worth $43 according to HQ in 2012 and at least $27 in each of the last three seasons. He hasn't had fewer than 570 at-bats in the last three seasons. He contributes to all of the offensive categories. McCutchen doesn't have a long track record but in his four major league seasons has shown steady improvement while providing excellent fantasy stats. Of the players under consideration, McCutchen has the highest probability of a huge breakout season. None of the MDC drafters took McCutchen before the third pick of the draft but he is capable of delivering a season with that level of value.

Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and the best player on the New York Yankees. He is an annual MVP candidate. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last three seasons and has done so while manning second base, a premium fantasy position. Unfortunately, he does not steal many bases. His value comes from very high batting averages and 30-homer power. Statistically he is probably a more appropriate pick for the mid to late picks of the first round but for those owners that prefer to use early picks on scarce positions Cano is a very safe option.

The choice here is for Ryan Braun but as Spring Training continues and Matt Kemp proves himself healthy the decision could change.For now I believe the MDC drafters have it nearly correct. The key difference is that I would not choose Mike Trout in a re-draft league with a top five pick over the other candidates listed here.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Down the Stretch: The Top Second Basemen of 2010

The second base position was thin this season thanks to under achievers and injuries. Kelly Johnson has had a great season but you'd think he'd be behind guys like Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Aaron Hill, Dustin Pedroia, and others who were not their usual selves this season for a variety of reasons.

Name Team BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP wOBA
Robinson Cano Yankees 8.60% 11.70% 0.322 0.385 0.557 0.235 0.323 0.398
Dan Uggla Marlins 12.50% 25.20% 0.294 0.381 0.532 0.239 0.331 0.396
Kelly Johnson Diamondbacks 12.50% 24.00% 0.281 0.373 0.499 0.217 0.33 0.379
Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 10.50% 12.60% 0.288 0.367 0.493 0.205 0.291 0.377
Rickie Weeks Brewers 9.80% 27.60% 0.276 0.371 0.483 0.207 0.336 0.375
Chase Utley Phillies 12.30% 13.60% 0.275 0.378 0.462 0.187 0.279 0.373
Martin Prado Braves 6.40% 13.90% 0.321 0.363 0.491 0.17 0.345 0.369
Ian Kinsler Rangers 12.00% 15.80% 0.298 0.387 0.418 0.12 0.332 0.359
Bill Hall Red Sox 9.30% 30.70% 0.247 0.319 0.478 0.231 0.289 0.349
Omar Infante Braves 4.80% 14.20% 0.339 0.369 0.42 0.081 0.385 0.347
Orlando Hudson Twins 9.40% 16.30% 0.287 0.358 0.404 0.118 0.327 0.342
Brandon Phillips Reds 6.50% 12.70% 0.282 0.336 0.448 0.166 0.3 0.342
Neil Walker Pirates 6.30% 22.10% 0.298 0.346 0.431 0.134 0.361 0.339
Jamey Carroll Dodgers 13.70% 17.20% 0.288 0.385 0.337 0.049 0.341 0.333
Jeff Keppinger Astros 8.70% 7.10% 0.285 0.348 0.395 0.11 0.296 0.331
Ty Wigginton Orioles 8.40% 19.10% 0.254 0.325 0.435 0.181 0.272 0.33
Jayson Nix - - - 7.40% 25.40% 0.244 0.31 0.435 0.192 0.274 0.325
Blake DeWitt - - - 10.20% 19.60% 0.272 0.352 0.381 0.109 0.329 0.325
Carlos Guillen Tigers 7.60% 16.20% 0.273 0.327 0.419 0.146 0.304 0.323
Sean Rodriguez Rays 3.00% 28.50% 0.263 0.305 0.409 0.146 0.342 0.317
Adam Rosales Athletics 6.80% 25.50% 0.271 0.321 0.4 0.129 0.335 0.317
Mike Fontenot - - - 5.10% 17.10% 0.282 0.327 0.398 0.116 0.331 0.315
Adam Kennedy Nationals 9.30% 14.00% 0.261 0.33 0.346 0.086 0.29 0.312
Howie Kendrick Angels 3.90% 15.60% 0.269 0.302 0.403 0.134 0.301 0.311
Jason Donald Indians 7.00% 21.40% 0.256 0.315 0.393 0.137 0.315 0.31
David Eckstein Padres 4.80% 4.90% 0.279 0.326 0.354 0.075 0.29 0.308
Maicer Izturis Angels 7.90% 13.50% 0.245 0.31 0.365 0.12 0.267 0.304
Gordon Beckham White Sox 7.20% 19.30% 0.252 0.313 0.378 0.126 0.292 0.302
Skip Schumaker Cardinals 8.20% 14.90% 0.263 0.329 0.34 0.077 0.296 0.301
Mike Aviles Royals 4.30% 12.10% 0.291 0.321 0.36 0.069 0.323 0.3
Chone Figgins Mariners 11.90% 20.30% 0.248 0.337 0.295 0.047 0.304 0.299
Reid Brignac Rays 5.90% 27.50% 0.255 0.306 0.382 0.127 0.328 0.298
Jerry Hairston Padres 6.70% 12.80% 0.254 0.309 0.368 0.114 0.267 0.297
Aaron Hill Blue Jays 7.30% 13.90% 0.214 0.282 0.393 0.179 0.206 0.295
Jonathan Herrera Rockies 8.20% 16.00% 0.278 0.335 0.327 0.049 0.321 0.294

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