Is Chase Utley a Safe 2013 Fantasy Baseball Pick?

That an aging and increasingly brittle second baseman such as Chase Utley must still be considered one of the best available at the position is both an acknowledgement of his talent and of the lack of offensive ability at the middle infield positions. Once past the third tier (all of my second base tiers are listed below) the talent drops off into the undesirable range very quickly. There is some promising talent on the way but until it becomes proven they won't be of much use in shallower mixed leagues. Jedd Gyorko of the Padres, Kolten Wong of the Cardinals, Delino Deshields of the Astros, Jonathan Schoop of the Orioles and Brock Holt of the Red Sox are some of the talents closet to contributing to fantasy teams.

Gyorko and Wong could start the season in the major leagues. I think Gyorko could be a major rookie of the year candidate and he is one of my favorite deep NL-only picks this year. I am not as big on Wong. Wong has skills that are improving but gets a lot of value from defense and intangibles which will not be an asset to most fantasy teams.

What are we looking for from our second basemen? It used to be that if he hit for a decent average and stole a few bases fantasy owners would be happy. But times changed and power became a more frequent requirement from the position. Stolen bases are almost a given these days but the power we enjoyed last decade is fading fast. These days we'll take batting average, decent power and a smattering of stolen bases and not complain too much.

Utley of course was once a lock to be one of the top two or three at the position. He hit for average, got on base, hit for power, stole bases and played excellent defense. He still does all of those things but has become very injury prone - mostly his bad knees. He has changed his workout routines in an effort to be better prepared for the season but I would hesitate to count on him for more than 400 at-bats and it could be less than that. Last season in 301 at-bats (362 plate appearances) Utley delivered a .256/.365/429 batting line with 48 runs, 45 RBI, 11 homeruns and 11 stolen bases. That is not so terrible when batting average has become less of a priority to major league hitters but it is far from what Utley could once provide.

What those numbers tell us is that Utley can indeed be productive for as long as he is on the field. Certainly on an at-bat to at-bat basis Utley is better than most at the position. Fantasy Owners can feel secure selecting Utley as long as they do not pay for more than 400 at-bats and have a plan to cover his almost inevitable time on the disabled list.

Tier One Second Basemen

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees - Cano is the best bat at the position by far. He hits like a potential batting champ and is a near lock to provide around 30 homeruns. Typically his Yankees lineups are so good that 100 runs and 100 RBI are always in range. With the deluge of injuries and the lack of established replacements the run and RBI totals are not as certain.

Tier Two Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - Only the occasional injury and last year's slump keep him from joining Cano in the first tier of the position. He provides average, some power and stolen bases and bats near the top of an excellent lineup. 

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - He has been a bit inconsistent but Kinsler can do it all. He is a solid bet for an annual 20/20 season and 30-plus homers are very possible.

Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays - The Rays refuse to leave him at one position. He began the offseason as the starting shortstop but was moved back to second when they acquired Yunel Escobar. Then he was placed back in the outfield when the Rays acquired Kelly Johnson. He hits for average and is usually good for close to 20 homers and 20 steals.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians - Kipnis ran into some growing pains in the second half of the 2012 season but still put up great overall numbers. He has 30 homer potential and should steal at least 20 bases if not the 31 he totaled in 2012.

Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks - Consistency is not his bag but he is usually good for 20-plus homers and a double-digit smattering of stolen bases. The Diamondbacks love to run so he could steal 20-plus bases again.

Tier Three Second Basemen

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros - A lack of power and a lousy lineup are keeping him from ranking better. But we will take the 30-plus stolen bases all day. He actually does have a little pop for a little guy but that is not his game and expecting more than a few homers would be to court disappointment.

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers - A massive slump through the first half the 2012 season has eroded his fantasy value a bit. He was pretty much his old self in the second half. There were actually signs of him becoming a better, more patient hitter.

Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - Is Phillips the coolest guy in the game? He's good for close to 20/20 every season and should have a big year in the souped up Reds lineup.

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - Talented but injury prone.

Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves - Usually one of the positions's better power options, he slumped badly in 2012. He seemed to start pressing to break the slump which only made it worse. He is the type of player that can fade quickly so be cautious selecting him.

Tier Four Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels - He has never seemed to reach his full potential as a possible batting average star with some power and speed. But he is an excellent pick this season if for nothing but his place in the middle of the Angels lineup.

Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates - He should hit for a decent batting average with a dozen or so homers and a few stolen bases. He no longer has the talented Brock Holt keeping an eye on his job.

Kelly Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays - His batting average will be lousy but he has 20/20 potential. It appears the Rays will start him at second base but back him up well.

Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals - A shoulder injury that he chose to rehab without surgery has some analysts worried. It has the potential to impact his power numbers. Steve Lombardozzi is ready to pounce on his job.

Jeff Keppinger, Chicago White Sox - He hits for average with a few homers and steals. He qualifies all over the infield and could change positions depending on the production of players like Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham. Carlos Sanchez is almost ready for a shot at the majors and he has big stolen base potential.

Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - He was a big disappointment in 2012. He is expected to hit for average with some power and some stolen bases. Some people expect that anyway.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - He looks healthy this spring but we've seen this before. I would not count on him to play the entire season. If healthy he should steal some bases assuming his legs are still good.

Tier Five Second Basemen

Eric Young Jr., Colorado Rockies - New Rockies manager Walt Weiss seems determined to create more of a role for the talented and versatile Young. If he gets at-bats he should steal a ton of bases. It would not take too much imagination to see him starting at second base or in the outfield at some point this season.

Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers - This is probably the last player on the list that I would want to draft. Everyone below this would make me just a little sick. He has some power and will steal some bases. He could have a really good season in Detroit.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - After a fast start to his career Beckham has done nothing but disappoint. He has some power and can steal bases but he is not a disciplined enough hitter to deliver for fantasy owners.

Daniel Murphy, New York Mets - He does not hit for much power or steal many bases but he does hit for a decent batting average. He is probably a bit underrated due to the Mets lousy lineup.

Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants - An excellent contact hitter with some on-base skill. He hits a few homers and steals a few bases. His teams always seem to be searching for his replacement. Your fantasy team will not be any different.

Maicer Izturis, Toronto Blue Jays - Battling Emilio Bonafacio for the role of starting second baseman. He is better suited a bench role and that is likely his destiny.

Tier Six Second Basemen

Tyler Greene, Houston Astros - He is only a decent hitter but he has the power and speed to provide fantasy owners with double digit homers and steals. He is projected as the starting shortstop for the Astros.

Logan Forsythe, San Diego Padres - He had better hope that Jedd Gyorko struggles defensively this spring. Gyorko can hit circles around Forsythe. Forsythe has a tiny bit of power and some stolen base ability but is not much of a contributor to a fantasy team.

Darwin Barney, Chicago Cubs - A defensive whiz who has managed decent batting averages and some stolen bases. He is not worthless but his value is only the result of the starting role he has no real skills that a fantasy owner would covet.

Donovan Solano, Miami Marlins - He could be the starter for the Marlins now that the team has been decimated. If he is better than average at the position it would be a great season for Solano and still without much fantasy value.

Jamey Carroll, Minnesota Twins - He can hit for average but he may be coming off the ben ch this season as the young Brian Dozier is likely to win the starting shortstop job.

Mark Ellis, Los Angeles Dodgers - He gets on base but that is about it for fantasy owners. I fully expect Dee Gordon to take over at second base at some point this season. The sooner the better.

Alexi Casilla, Baltimore Orioles - The most likely candidate to replace an injured Brian Roberts. He can steal bases and some unrealized power potential.

Jemile Weeks, Oakland Athletics - Battling Scott Sizemore for the second base job after a disappointing season. But based on potential alone he should win the job.

Tier Seven Second Basemen

Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals - Danny Espinosa's potential replacement. He's a gritty gamer type that the Diamondbacks would love.

Chris Getz, Kansas City Royals - He should be sitting on the Royals bench but because manager Ned Yost is in love with him he will continue to battle Giavotella for the starting second baseman job.

Johnny Giavotella, Kansas City Royals - He has the bat to move way up this list. He should hit for an excellent batting average with some power and stolen bases.

DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies - He can hit. He has no power. He has some speed but nothing exciting. But he can hit.

Ryan Roberts, Tampa Bay Rays- He has some power and might be productive if the Rays give him a chance to play.

Ryan Raburn, Detroit Tigers - He looks like a bench player this season. That is probably for the best.

Freddy Sanchez, San Francisco Giants - To rank higher he would have to stay healthy for a few dozen at-bats per season.

Scott Sizemore, Oakland Athletics - Battling for the A's second base job. He has a little power and a some stolen base skills but nothing to get excited about.

2013 Sleeper: Erik Kratz

Erik Kratz has been around for a while. He has a great reputation as a defensive catcher. Supposedly, pitchers love to throw to him. His bat looks a better than the average catcher and the power looks like it could be around league average if not a bit better. Last season in the minors he hit .266/.326/.540 with eight homers in 141 plate appearances. He was called up to the Phillies and received 157 PA in which he batted .248/.306/.504 with nine homeruns. He was scheduled to spend 2013 in the majors as a back-up but thanks to Carlos Ruiz getting himself suspended, Kratz figures to get an extra month of starter at-bats. He should be more than worth his purchase price.

UPSIDE: 350abs, .250/.310/.460 with 15 homers and a few stolen bases.

Betting on Ryan Howard

I was reading an article on BaseballHQ.com about Post-Injury Best Bets by Dan Becker when I found myself growing annoyed. All the players on the list were listed under an injury that ended their season except one. Ryan Howard was listed as a longshot to cover from the injury with which he began the 2012 season. The torn Achilles kept him of out action until early July (rather than the late May that was estimated). But he did return. He broke his toe when he dropped a weight at the end but that should not hold him back much.

He was not great upon his return but after several months away a little rust could be expected. But Dan Becker thinks that Howard is not worth investing in for the 2013 season.

There were a number of red flags in regards to Howard's declining skills even before he tore his Achilles. Now he's just a bad investment. His slash numbers have wilted across the board since 2009 and he's helpless against LHP. The PX remains terrific so he's likely to remain a nice source of HRs, but at what cost to other categories? It wouldn't be shocking to see Howard enjoy a mild bounce back season, but the decline phase of big sluggers is too ugly to risk for such limited upside.

Sure, I know Howard is not the greatest player in the game. He certainly has his share of flaws. He does not have a very good contact rate. He is a slow and lumbering sort of player. He is not a good defensive player. But how much of that actually matters to Howard’s fantasy value?

Over his career Howard has averaged a .271/.364/.551 slash with 33-plus homers in his nine major league seasons. In 2011, his last healthy season, he hit .253/.346/.488 with 33 homers and 116 RBI. Is it really so unreasonable that a healthy Howard could repeat that line? He has a reputation as a hard worker who will do what it takes to play the best first base possible and to take his spot in the lineup. He has basically performed like the slightly flawed slugger he is in every season of his career until he was hurt. He does not have any speed he needs to recover. All he really needs is healthy legs and he is good to go.

Excluding the 2012 season, Howard has been worth between $23 and $33 every season since 2007. If he looks healthy going into the season, anything less than $25 strikes me as good bet on Howard’s rebound.

Astros and Phillies Agree on Oswalt Trade

From Fox Sports in Houston

Houston - Major League baseball sources told FOX 26 Sports the Houston Astros have a deal in place to trade pitcher Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies if Oswalt agrees to waive his no-trade clause.

Sources told FOX 26 the Astros have approached Oswalt. He is aware of the deal that is on the table and the club is waiting for his response.

MLB sources told FOX 26 the Astros and Phillies have agreed on the amount of money Houston will take back in the deal and the two teams have agreed on the players Philadelphia will be sending.

Oswalt is owed about $5 million for the rest of this season.

Empire State of Mind

I have to work tonight. That means I will not get to see the World Series tonight which bothers me more than you might think possible. I never miss the World Series, especially when the New York Yankees are involved. Yes, I am a Yankees fan. Alex Rodriguez has really shown his stuff the last few weeks. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are the old and steady hands. Andy Pettitte is just plain clutch. I'll have the game on in some silent form tonight. Damn the rules. But the nature of my job means that even then I won't see much of it.

I love that the Yankees are facing this Philadelphia Phillies team. It has so many great players on it. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are just awesome, I'd love to have any of these guys in New York. The pitching should be great for both teams as well. I expect this to be a tight, well fought series. It may not go seven games but both teams will know they were in a battle.

And now the new anthem of New York City... (there is a video, for you RSS types, come check it out)

Chase Utley Posting Career High Fantasy Stats

Last night, Chase Utley stole his 20th and 21st bases of the season. It is even more impressive than it sounds at this late point in the season, when you consider that we were all at least slightly worried about him coming into the season. It may seem like centuries ago now, but Utley had hip surgery last off season and the earliest reports all predicted that he could miss the first month of the season. Instead Utley was ready on day one and has had another in a string of great (possibly even underrated) seasons. In fact he is on pace to set career highs in Walks, OBP, Home Runs and Stolen Bases.

Utley plays in the middle of the best lineup in the National League. As long as the group of Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez stay together he should continue to have great Run and RBI totals. He is in his prime years as a hitter and should have at least a couple more years before his age starts to show in his stats. His manager obviously doesn't have an issue with Utley stealing bases. How could he when Utley is always successful? That's right, Utley has 21 stolen bases and has not been caught this season. With a consistently high batting average, OBP, SLG, his ability to hit homeruns, steal bases, and stay in the lineup despite everything --how could you do better?

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	PHI	43	134	13	32	10	1	2	21	11	22	2	0	.239	.322	.373	.696
2004	PHI	94	267	36	71	11	2	13	57	15	40	4	1	.266	.308	.468	.776
2005	PHI	147	543	93	158	39	6	28	105	69	109	16	3	.291	.376	.540	.915
2006	PHI	160	658	131	203	40	4	32	102	63	132	15	4	.309	.379	.527	.906
2007	PHI	132	530	104	176	48	5	22	103	50	89	9	1	.332	.410	.566	.976
2008	PHI	159	607	113	177	41	4	33	104	64	104	14	2	.292	.380	.535	.915
2009	PHI	140	511	102	151	27	2	31	90	83	98	21	0	.296	.414	.538	.952

Utley's incredible production and his own only slightly diminished production must put the mind of Alex Rodriguez to rest. A-Rod had a temporary procedure done, a patch of sorts, to allow him to play through a hip injury very similar to Utley's. In April, I did not have high hopes for A-Rod based on the temporary nature of the fix and the simultaneous steroid controversy that was raging at the time. Obviously, I mis-judged both Rodriguez and his chances at a productive season. I now have considerably more faith that A-Rod will emerge from his off-season surgery (the real fix) as productive as he ever was.

Chase Utley is a worthy first round pick for fantasy owners in almost any kind of league. I would have no problem taking him in the top ten and even in the top three just after Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. His position puts him ahead of Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Cecil Fielder and even AFB favorite --Matt Kemp. Joe Mauer is also approaching this territory for me but I'm not quite sold on jis ability to repeat his power numbers yet.

Here is how Yahoo ranks the Top 25 Fantasy Players coming down the stretch:

1) Albert Pujols 1B St. Louis Cardinals
2) Hanley Ramirez SS Florida Marlins
3) Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
4) Dan Haren SP Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Zack Grienke SP Kansas City Royals
6) Ryan Braun OF Milwaukee Brewers
7) Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers
8) Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
9) Joe Mauer C Minnesota Twins
10) Chase Utley 2B Philadelphia Phillies
11) Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
12) Chris Carpenter SP St. Louis Cardinals
13) Derek Jeter SS New York Yankees
14) Javier Vazquez SP Atlanta Braves
15) Felix Hernandez SP Seattle Mariners
16) Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit Tigers
17) Carl Crawford OF Tampa Bay Rays
18) Matt Holliday OF St. Louis Cardinals (This one deserves a post of its own)
19) Ryan Howard 1B Philadelphia Phillies
20) Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees
21) Adam Wainwright SP St. Louis Cardinals
22) Bobby Abreu OF Los Angeles Angels
23) Justin Verlander SP Detroit Tigers
24) Roy Halladay SP Toronto Blue Jays
25) Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs

Brett Myers Out, The Phillies Seek a Replacement

One of the Phillies front line starters is now out for the season with hip surgery. At least it isn't is arm. I'm sure that is not going to make Myers owners feel any better. Coincidentally, I tried to trade for Myers in my primary AL-only league just last week and received a sound rejection. Funny, I'm sure he'd take the deal now. The Phillies are apparently ready to deal for a new secondary ace to pair with Cole Hamels.

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

Brett Myers is out for the season with hip surgery. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who said the Phillies don't have the money to add multiple starters. Instead they'll aim high, with names like Erik Bedard and Roy Oswalt speculated by Rosenthal. So, not a Brad Penny type. SI's Jon Heyman wrote about Bedard's appeal earlier today.

Rosenthal also wonders if Myers' surgery could restore some lost velocity, making him an intriguing free agent after the season.

Fantasy Owners in all leagues should be monitoring this situation closely. The Phillies are not as loaded as some teams in their minor league system but they do have a solid group of prospects that would a lot of value in trade. Since the prospects are likely to end up in the American League owners in re-building mode will want to be aware of names like these:

OF Dominic Brown - The Phillies number one prospect according to Baseball America. Brown hs been compared to Darryl Strawberry often. He is still quite raw at this point but his potential is off the charts.

RHP Carlos Carrasco - He was the number one prospect in 2008. His toughness has been questioned but his stuff is very good and his command is improving. BA likes to call him a mid-rotation starter but I think he'll be a little better than that.

SS Jason Donald - If he stays with the Phillies, Donald is likely to take over at third base in 2010. A lot of doubt his ability to produce as a regular in a major league lineup but those people are dumb.

Any other prospects involved are likely to be a few years away from the majors. The pitchers the Phillies are interested are all known quantities like Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard, and others like them on teams that have no hope. I can also see a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Texas Rangers being willing to trade a veteran pitcher in order to fit a more talented youngster into their rotation.

Five Spring Training Questions Without Answers

There is no longer any doubt that Chase Utley will be ready and in the lineup for the Phillies on Opening Day. His plate discipline and patience should be unaffected. Judging by the small example we've seen in spring training he'll have no problem driving the ball. The only aspect of his game that we have yet to see is the stolen base. If the stolen base is no longer part of Utley's arsenal how will that change his value? He would still be one of the better second basemen in the National League due to his ability to hit for average and power in a loaded lineup.

If Joba Chamberlain can duplicate his performance as a starter in 2008 for the entire 2009 season he will easily be a top ten starter. The question remains if health and the Yankees will allow him to do it. He hasn't had a very encouraging spring for anyone concerned. His velocity has been down and he has appeared to be far less intense than would be ideal. It could be just a spring training issue. His velocity was down last spring and it exploded when he moved to the bullpen. Is this a Joba who is being ultra careful not to get hurt and to preserve his arm for a long season? Or is this a Joba already injured and trying to pitch through pain?

What about the Red Sox pitching staff? There are too many available bodies with another collection of arms that should be ready for the majors in in May/June. Justin Masterson is still in the running for a starting role according to recent reports and so is Clay Buchholz. What will happen with Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz if they are all effective and ready if Masterson and Buchholz are pitching well behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester? Rather than become clearer, this situation has become murkier. Let's not even get into the bullpen...

What is the right price to pay for Alex Rodriguez? There is noise about his rehab going well but when have you ever heard that rehab was going horribly? The cloud of controversey around him seems to get bigger and darker everyday. Even if he comes back and is effective in say June the injury risk will remain huge since effectively his injury has been patched not fixed. Will this make the problem worse in the long run? What if he comes back in 2010 and has lost a step? Minus stolen bases doesn't A-Rod become Aramis Ramirez? Not bad but not someone you want to pay first round value to have.

It probably isn't bugging others as much as me but who the hell is going to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield, especially in left field? Nyjer Morgan is a speedy fourth outfielder who the Pirates seem willing to give an extended opportunity. Andrew McCutcheon is the most talented option but the Pirates will want to send him down long enough to delay arbitration by a year. Steve Pearce deserves an opportunity but doesn't seem to be very appreciated by management considering the way he's been dismissed as a possibility for two straight seasons. Brandon Moss has battled injury and is probably another fourth outfielder ultimately but maybe he's another David Murphy (another Red Sox cast away). The one lock is Nate McClouth who is probably the center fielder but if the Pirates are going to start a mediocre offensive option like Morgan wouldn't make sense to have him in center to maximize the defensive possibilities? I personally believe it may be a mish-mash of option the entire season.

Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.