Empire State of Mind

I have to work tonight. That means I will not get to see the World Series tonight which bothers me more than you might think possible. I never miss the World Series, especially when the New York Yankees are involved. Yes, I am a Yankees fan. Alex Rodriguez has really shown his stuff the last few weeks. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are the old and steady hands. Andy Pettitte is just plain clutch. I'll have the game on in some silent form tonight. Damn the rules. But the nature of my job means that even then I won't see much of it.

I love that the Yankees are facing this Philadelphia Phillies team. It has so many great players on it. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are just awesome, I'd love to have any of these guys in New York. The pitching should be great for both teams as well. I expect this to be a tight, well fought series. It may not go seven games but both teams will know they were in a battle.

And now the new anthem of New York City... (there is a video, for you RSS types, come check it out)

Chase Utley Posting Career High Fantasy Stats

Last night, Chase Utley stole his 20th and 21st bases of the season. It is even more impressive than it sounds at this late point in the season, when you consider that we were all at least slightly worried about him coming into the season. It may seem like centuries ago now, but Utley had hip surgery last off season and the earliest reports all predicted that he could miss the first month of the season. Instead Utley was ready on day one and has had another in a string of great (possibly even underrated) seasons. In fact he is on pace to set career highs in Walks, OBP, Home Runs and Stolen Bases.

Utley plays in the middle of the best lineup in the National League. As long as the group of Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez stay together he should continue to have great Run and RBI totals. He is in his prime years as a hitter and should have at least a couple more years before his age starts to show in his stats. His manager obviously doesn't have an issue with Utley stealing bases. How could he when Utley is always successful? That's right, Utley has 21 stolen bases and has not been caught this season. With a consistently high batting average, OBP, SLG, his ability to hit homeruns, steal bases, and stay in the lineup despite everything --how could you do better?

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	PHI	43	134	13	32	10	1	2	21	11	22	2	0	.239	.322	.373	.696
2004	PHI	94	267	36	71	11	2	13	57	15	40	4	1	.266	.308	.468	.776
2005	PHI	147	543	93	158	39	6	28	105	69	109	16	3	.291	.376	.540	.915
2006	PHI	160	658	131	203	40	4	32	102	63	132	15	4	.309	.379	.527	.906
2007	PHI	132	530	104	176	48	5	22	103	50	89	9	1	.332	.410	.566	.976
2008	PHI	159	607	113	177	41	4	33	104	64	104	14	2	.292	.380	.535	.915
2009	PHI	140	511	102	151	27	2	31	90	83	98	21	0	.296	.414	.538	.952

Utley's incredible production and his own only slightly diminished production must put the mind of Alex Rodriguez to rest. A-Rod had a temporary procedure done, a patch of sorts, to allow him to play through a hip injury very similar to Utley's. In April, I did not have high hopes for A-Rod based on the temporary nature of the fix and the simultaneous steroid controversy that was raging at the time. Obviously, I mis-judged both Rodriguez and his chances at a productive season. I now have considerably more faith that A-Rod will emerge from his off-season surgery (the real fix) as productive as he ever was.

Chase Utley is a worthy first round pick for fantasy owners in almost any kind of league. I would have no problem taking him in the top ten and even in the top three just after Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. His position puts him ahead of Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Cecil Fielder and even AFB favorite --Matt Kemp. Joe Mauer is also approaching this territory for me but I'm not quite sold on jis ability to repeat his power numbers yet.

Here is how Yahoo ranks the Top 25 Fantasy Players coming down the stretch:

1) Albert Pujols 1B St. Louis Cardinals
2) Hanley Ramirez SS Florida Marlins
3) Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
4) Dan Haren SP Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Zack Grienke SP Kansas City Royals
6) Ryan Braun OF Milwaukee Brewers
7) Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers
8) Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
9) Joe Mauer C Minnesota Twins
10) Chase Utley 2B Philadelphia Phillies
11) Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
12) Chris Carpenter SP St. Louis Cardinals
13) Derek Jeter SS New York Yankees
14) Javier Vazquez SP Atlanta Braves
15) Felix Hernandez SP Seattle Mariners
16) Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit Tigers
17) Carl Crawford OF Tampa Bay Rays
18) Matt Holliday OF St. Louis Cardinals (This one deserves a post of its own)
19) Ryan Howard 1B Philadelphia Phillies
20) Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees
21) Adam Wainwright SP St. Louis Cardinals
22) Bobby Abreu OF Los Angeles Angels
23) Justin Verlander SP Detroit Tigers
24) Roy Halladay SP Toronto Blue Jays
25) Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs

Five Spring Training Questions Without Answers

There is no longer any doubt that Chase Utley will be ready and in the lineup for the Phillies on Opening Day. His plate discipline and patience should be unaffected. Judging by the small example we've seen in spring training he'll have no problem driving the ball. The only aspect of his game that we have yet to see is the stolen base. If the stolen base is no longer part of Utley's arsenal how will that change his value? He would still be one of the better second basemen in the National League due to his ability to hit for average and power in a loaded lineup.

If Joba Chamberlain can duplicate his performance as a starter in 2008 for the entire 2009 season he will easily be a top ten starter. The question remains if health and the Yankees will allow him to do it. He hasn't had a very encouraging spring for anyone concerned. His velocity has been down and he has appeared to be far less intense than would be ideal. It could be just a spring training issue. His velocity was down last spring and it exploded when he moved to the bullpen. Is this a Joba who is being ultra careful not to get hurt and to preserve his arm for a long season? Or is this a Joba already injured and trying to pitch through pain?

What about the Red Sox pitching staff? There are too many available bodies with another collection of arms that should be ready for the majors in in May/June. Justin Masterson is still in the running for a starting role according to recent reports and so is Clay Buchholz. What will happen with Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz if they are all effective and ready if Masterson and Buchholz are pitching well behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester? Rather than become clearer, this situation has become murkier. Let's not even get into the bullpen...

What is the right price to pay for Alex Rodriguez? There is noise about his rehab going well but when have you ever heard that rehab was going horribly? The cloud of controversey around him seems to get bigger and darker everyday. Even if he comes back and is effective in say June the injury risk will remain huge since effectively his injury has been patched not fixed. Will this make the problem worse in the long run? What if he comes back in 2010 and has lost a step? Minus stolen bases doesn't A-Rod become Aramis Ramirez? Not bad but not someone you want to pay first round value to have.

It probably isn't bugging others as much as me but who the hell is going to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield, especially in left field? Nyjer Morgan is a speedy fourth outfielder who the Pirates seem willing to give an extended opportunity. Andrew McCutcheon is the most talented option but the Pirates will want to send him down long enough to delay arbitration by a year. Steve Pearce deserves an opportunity but doesn't seem to be very appreciated by management considering the way he's been dismissed as a possibility for two straight seasons. Brandon Moss has battled injury and is probably another fourth outfielder ultimately but maybe he's another David Murphy (another Red Sox cast away). The one lock is Nate McClouth who is probably the center fielder but if the Pirates are going to start a mediocre offensive option like Morgan wouldn't make sense to have him in center to maximize the defensive possibilities? I personally believe it may be a mish-mash of option the entire season.

Alex Rodriguez Surgery to Cost at Least 10 weeks

I can not be the only one getting the feeling the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are not on the same page. After a couple days of insisting that A-Rod would attempt rest and rehab before pursuing surgery as an option, it turns out that the initial reports attributed to A-Rod's brother were very accurate. On Monday A-Rod will have arthroscopic hip surgery. Reports are that A-Rod will miss six to nine weeks and will require further surgery after the season.

I do not usually report on individual injuries like this but this is something that every fantasy owner needs to know. A-Rod will not miss just six to nine weeks. After this rehab period A-Rod will probably have a couple weeks of spring training in the minor leagues before re-joining the New York Yankees. As a renowned wuss, Rodriguez can be expected to come back from this very slowly. The problem is not being fixed, it is being patched. He will still have to play through pain. He could very well make the problem worse. Then he will endure the more serious version of the surgery at the end of the season.

Any fantasy owner with a serious chance at winning this season should avoid playing even 50 percent of A-Rod's usual cost. In re-draft leagues I would not bother selecting A-Rod before the 12th round and he is certain to be taken by a fearless (or stupid) owner before that point. I was leaning toward predicting a bad season for A-Rod because of the pressure on him to perform under the close eye of the media while enduring the boos of fans. He has responded poorly to this in the past and it will be increased by a factor of at least ten this season. Add "playing through pain" to the list of obstacles placed in the path of A-Rod having a strong season. This is the recipe for disaster. Even those owners who are choosing to re-build this season should be wary of bidding on A-Rod as next season will also begin slowly as he'll still be rehabing from surgery. If it is enough to keep a gamers like Chase Utley, and Mike Lowell from making opening day, surely Alex Rodriguez can't be expected to do any better.

Alex Rodriguez to Have Hip Surgery

Alex Rodriguez will miss at least the first month of the season due to hip surgery to remove a cyst that may or may not have been caused by steroid use. His price is crashing through the floor and he can not be a first round pick.




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