The First Pick of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Is...

My friend Derek Ambrosino at the Hard Ball Times recently posted an article called "Who is 2013's Top Dog?" which debates which player should be drafted first in re-draft mixed leagues this season. To his eyes there are only three candidates - Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.

I agree that those three should be candidates. However, I will add three more names for consideration - Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen. Kemp, Cano and McCutchen are generally going with the fourth, fifth and sixth picks in one order or another but a case can be made that they are each better selections than at least two of Derek's choices.

Before jumping into each player's qualifications I think it is important to decide what is important to acquire in a first round pick, especially an early one. The first pick in the draft would ideally have a track record of success, annual statistics that typically place the player within the top 10-15 players overall, a clean bill of health, a secure position on his team and contribute to five categories. If you are lucky, that player will also be in his prime years of performance and own the potential for further upside in his statistics.

Ryan Braun is at the top of Mock Draft Central's ADP Report.  Braun won the 2011 MVP award and has been one of the top offensive players in baseball for years and contributes to all five offensive categories. He was worth $50 in 2012 according to BaseballHQ.com values. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last six years and 50-plus the last two seasons. He has averaged over 600 at-bats the last five years. He is definitely in the prime of his career and signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. The only real negative is regarding the suspicion of PED use and the possibility of suspension. After beating the rap before the 2012 season, Braun was one of the names connected to the BioGenesis Clinic. If Braun missed 50 games due to suspension would he still have first round value? Probably, but I certainly would not be happy to have used the first pick of the draft on him.

Miguel Cabrera is ranked second by MDC's ADP Report. He won the 2012 MVP Award and achieved the Triple Crown last season. Cabrera has been worth at least $30 in seven of the last eight years. HQ valued him at $42 in 2012 and at no less than $36 the last three seasons. He has batted no worse than .324 with 30 homers in each of the last four seasons. He has not had fewer than 548 at-bats since 2004. He is still just 29-years old and in the prime of his career. Last season he moved back to third base so he qualifies at a premium position. Cabrera does not steal bases and that is pretty much the only flaw in his game. If you are hunting for a problem you might knock him for some occasional issues related to alcohol but he has not had an issue with that in the last few years.The lack of stolen bases is unfortunate but Cabrera is still an excellent option.

Mike Trout was the stat guy choice for the 2012 MVP. He had a Rookie-of-the-Year season better than anyone else has ever had. He hit for average, for power, scored runs, drove in runs and stole bases almost at will. BaseballHQ valued him at $49 in 2012 and $0 in his 123 at-bat audition in 2011. If Trout did everything at the same rate he did in 2012 over the entire 2013 season he would easily be the number one choice, almost without debate since he would gain more than a month of at-bats at that MVP level rate of performance. many analysts have pointed out that even with some significant regression to his 2012 statistics Trout could still be an easy first round value with an extra 100-plus at-bats added to his season totals. However, Trout, prior to the 2012 season had never displayed the 30-homer power he achieved in 2012. In fact he had never hit more than the 17 he hit at three combined levels in 2011. As Derek pointed out, it isn't unusual for a young player to show big improvement but it is not typical to make such a huge advance in a player's rookie season.Trout may be a great player in the making but one huge season does not make him an ideal first overall pick.

Matt Kemp was the 2011 MVP Runner-up to Ryan Braun. He was given an astounding value of $62 by BaseballHQ in 2011 but just $24 in his injury-plagued 2012 season. Kemp began the 2012 season with a monster month of April but an early May hamstring strain (which he tried to play through) basically put him out of action until the middle of July. Kemp has been worth at least $31 in four of the last six seasons and no less than the $21 he earned in 2010. He usually contributes in all five offensive categories and is one of the rare players capable of achieving 40-plus in both homers and steals. The Dodgers have him signed for the next several years. Kemp is considered a crucial part of the Dodger's core. A player coming off an injury-shortened season is not an ideal first overall pick but Kemp's upside potential is as high or higher than any of the players under consideration.

Andrew McCutchen is just 26-years old but already considered one of the best in the game. He has shown power gains three years running. He has fantastic speed and has spoken publicly this spring regarding his desire to improve his base-stealing techniques.The coveted 30/30 season could be in his future.He was worth $43 according to HQ in 2012 and at least $27 in each of the last three seasons. He hasn't had fewer than 570 at-bats in the last three seasons. He contributes to all of the offensive categories. McCutchen doesn't have a long track record but in his four major league seasons has shown steady improvement while providing excellent fantasy stats. Of the players under consideration, McCutchen has the highest probability of a huge breakout season. None of the MDC drafters took McCutchen before the third pick of the draft but he is capable of delivering a season with that level of value.

Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and the best player on the New York Yankees. He is an annual MVP candidate. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last three seasons and has done so while manning second base, a premium fantasy position. Unfortunately, he does not steal many bases. His value comes from very high batting averages and 30-homer power. Statistically he is probably a more appropriate pick for the mid to late picks of the first round but for those owners that prefer to use early picks on scarce positions Cano is a very safe option.

The choice here is for Ryan Braun but as Spring Training continues and Matt Kemp proves himself healthy the decision could change.For now I believe the MDC drafters have it nearly correct. The key difference is that I would not choose Mike Trout in a re-draft league with a top five pick over the other candidates listed here.

Miguel Cabrera Bloodied By Batted Ball

PHOTO: Miguel Cabrera is attended to by Brandon Inge and Max Scherzer after being hit in the face by a grounder. http://pic.twitter.com/VdFVfEuL

When the Noise Becomes Interesting...

You do not have to search far to find a fantasy baseball analyst warning against trusting the noise generated during Spring Training. "He's in the best shape of his life" and "I'm definitely going to steal 40 bases this season" are the phrases that make us drool but are probably best ignored. It is about ignoring the subjective and concentrating on the facts. Nothing wrong with that. But once in a while the objective case needs the subjective ideas to form a complete picture.

LINK

According an arrest affidavit, a deputy spotted a car [Miguel] Cabrera was driving, smoking on the side of Okeechobee Road in Ft. Pierce, about 100 miles southeast of the Tigers' spring-training base in Lakeland. Cabrera had an odor of alcohol on his breath, his eyes were bloodshot and watery, and his speech was heavily slurred, according to the report.

In the arrest affidavit, deputies said Cabrera repeated, “Do you know who I am? You don’t know anything about my problems.” Cabrera then picked up a bottle of James Buchanan’s Scotch whiskey and started drinking, according to the report.

Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. He is not willing to admit that at this point. The Tigers believed that they had nipped this problem in the bud after the 2009 incident. A stern talking to and a few apologies were never going to be enough to truly solve this problem. How do I know he has a problem with alcohol? If you get in trouble with the police because of your drinking, even if it is only once in every 365 nights you go drinking, you have a problem. But if you're paying attention you'll note that this is me applying my thoughts to to the facts about Cabrera. We are not supposed to do this.

If the Detroit Tigers think that a week of "rehab" is enough to address Cabrera's problems, they aren't taking his alcoholism seriously. The Tigers are now saying that he may make his Spring debut on Monday. 'Nuff said.

Now does that mean that Miguel Cabrera shouldn't be your first round pick? Tough to say. I have been criticized in the past for suggesting that I wouldn't draft Cabrera because of his untreated alcohol problems. In addition, I don't think he takes his position as the leader of the Tigers offense seriously. I don't believe he gives much consideration to conditioning. None of that makes him a bad person or even a bad player but in my opinion he is a serious risk to dash a fantasy team's championship hopes. It's 50/50, in the first round I want better odds.


LINK

At his long-awaited physical exam and official weigh-in Friday, [Pablo] Sandoval tipped the scales at 240 pounds, according to Ethan Banning of Triple Threat Performance, which coordinated his offseason conditioning regimen.

Sandoval weighed 278 pounds at the end of last season. He also reduced his body fat measurement from 30 percent to 19 percent, Banning said.

"That's not Mr. Universe, but it's a long way from where he was," Banning said.

Banning estimated that the 5-foot-11 Sandoval gained nearly seven pounds of muscle on the highly disciplined nutrition and training plan, so his total fat loss was closer to 45 pounds.

It is tough not to love Pablo Sandoval. Not only does he obviously love playing baseball, he looks like a lot of us. So when we hear that Kung-Fu Panda is in the best shape of his life, we cheer for him and then we ignore it. It won't improve his plate discipline after all.

I'm certain you'll let me know if any of the following subjective thoughts on Pablo Sandoval and his weight-loss/transformation stop making sense:

1. His agility and ability to play defense is likely to improve, at least to the level it was in 2009. In case you missed it, Sandoval was benched last year because of his defense, not his bat. So, he'll get more at-bats.
   
2. His endurance should improve. He should be stronger later in games and should require fewer late-inning substitutions. So, he'll get more at-bats.
3. His confidence is soaring. As we know, half of baseball is 90 percent mental.
   

What is the most important thing a player needs to have for offensive success? That's right, tons of at-bats. Sandoval is an excellent contact hitter who has good power (maybe even better now after training with Barry Bonds' boys) who looks like he'll get a ton of bats. Not only do I think Sandoval being in the best shape of his life is significant, I think it is the primary reason we can expect a big bounce-back season.

From the Process Report:

Bautista had a fantastic season and would have qualified for free agency at season’s end. Instead, the Jays essentially replace Vernon Wells’ dollars with a lone commitment and an equally risky one at that. There are no early opt-out or buyout opportunities involved here. Even if you just look at when Bautista got playing time and ignore that he couldn’t break into the lineup while playing for some extraordinarily poor teams, here’s what you’ll find:

Season (PA)/TAv/wOBA/OPS
2006 (469): .261/.326/.755
2007 (614): .269/.331/.753
2008 (424): .256/.311/.718
2009 (404): .272/.339/.757
2010 (683): .331/.422/.995

Bautista is an above average offensive player most years, but not by much. He appears to be a negative on defense, although his flexibility is a nice asset, and this is his 30-year-old season –leaving little doubt he will decline over the length of the deal. A replication of 2010 is highly unlikely, so being an above average player for the duration is the perfect world outcome. More likely? He earns some surplus on the front side and the Jays are ready to get rid of the deal by 2015.

When Jose Bautista signed his big new contract this week it was trashed by many of the smartest writers around. They look at the stats and see that Bautista's 2010 season sticks out like a sore thumb. It must be a fluke! How can a player go from slightly above average to suddenly great?

You won't always find the answer in the stats. Instead you need to look closer. Jose Bautista may have struggled to find a full-time role while with the Pittsburgh Pirates but think about that. The Pirates? They haven't won meaningful games in a decade and haven't done it two straight seasons in two decades. They are routinely trashed for making lousy personnel decisions. Until very recently they've struggled to develop major league talent despite having top picks in every draft of the last 20 years and certainly lacked the ability to coach them up. Even with the Pirates a closer look would have revealed a slightly flawed player with good power. The Blue Jays saw a decent player they could turn into a better one (the Red Sox did too, just sayin').

You can check out this detailed explanation by Frankie Piliere for the specifics. But the mechanical changes are very real and they matter. If he can maintain them there is no reason he can't remain at a new level of effectiveness. This isn't noise, these are facts.

I like that the Blue Jays signed Jose Bautista. Yes, it is a bit of a gamble but guys that can smack 50 homers a season are especially rare in the post-steroid era. If he has a strong follow-up season he would have gotten at least that and more. He can hit, hit for power and field two positions very well. This is not the next Vernon Wells contract.

A Few Players I Will Not Own in 2010 (that you probably will)

There are plenty of sites out there producing sleeper lists. There are plenty of lists available to tell you which players are injury prone, and which players were exceptionally lucky. Unfortunately, even if these lists were ever more than 70 percent accurate they would not cover the most frustrating portion of the player population. I am refering to the players that drop off the map with very few warning signs. That these players exist is why I try so hard to consider more than just scouting reports and statistics. The human elements such as player environments, and situations that may result in distractions or even worse.

This is hardly a complete list. Any player could drop off completely without warning. But these are players who I have decided I will pass on in 2010 for various reasons. I am not suggesting that they'll be worthless in 2010 or even close to that. I am suggesting that the risk is higher than you may think. I prefer to avoid these players than to hope to get lucky with them.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
To be honest I've been growing more and more down on Miguel Cabrera for a while. Don't worry, I have been called crazy before and I'll get over it. We are still friends here. I've been told by more than one person whose opinion I respected that my opinions on Cabrera are subjective and not based on real statistical evidence. They are not wrong. But I call it trusting my eyes, ears, and instincts. If you look at Cabrera's statistics there is not a single sign of impending disaster, but there are other types of signs. I should qualify this by sharing that if Cabrera was going to come at a severe discount I might roster him. Raise your hand if you think I can draft Cabrera for less than $30? When I spend $40 bucks or the draft equivalent on a player I want it to come with significantly less risk.

Cabrera is showing signs of complacency. His drive to achieve more in his career seems to be fading. He may not be fat but he's getting softer. I know a potential fat guy when I see him, trust me. In his last 20 games before the showdown against the Twins, Cabrera hit just .244. He is also getting in trouble more often. Two violent drinking related incidents this year that could easily have led to criminal charges.

Television station WXYZ obtained a police report from an alleged incident the preceding August, in which Cabrera was involved in a verbal altercation with diners at a restaurant inside the Townsend. Witnesses say Cabrera threatened to fight the group outside and indicated that he had a gun. Restaurant employees asked Cabrera to leave and police were called. There was no weapon in Cabrera's vehicle and Cabrera told team officials he did not own one. Cabrera then told team officials he had been dealing with personal issues and got upset, and the diners ended up dropping the matter.

He was legally drunk the morning before a crucial playoff game. Early morning on October 3, 2009, police were called to the Cabreras' home and took Cabrera in for questioning. Cabrera had come home at 6:00am, after a night of drinking at the nearby Townsend Hotel, and got in an argument with his wife. He was seen later that day at a game at Comerica Park, with scratches on his face. Cabrera told reporters that the scratches came from his dog and refused to discuss the matter further. It was later reported he had a blood alcohol level of .26, three times the legal limit, when tested at the police station. Dave Dombrowski, the general manager of the Tigers, picked him up from the police station around 7:30am—eleven and a half hours before that evening's game in which he went 0–4 with one strikeout and six runners left on base against the Chicago White Sox.

He plays for a team that traded away its most popular player (signed to a fair deal) for prospects in an attempt to reduce its payroll commitments. Cabrera is a hell of a financial commitment and there are many teams that would be interested if he became available. So Cabrera may not forget how to hit but there is enough here to lead me to put my dollars elsewhere.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston Astros
I suggested that Roy Oswalt was in decline before the 2009 season began and was old that was an asinine comment. I don't mean to brag, I don't mean to boast but I'm like hot butter on breakfast toast. That means I'm right by the way. I was willing to own Oswalt last season if he came cheap enough, I would not touch him this season with a ten foot pole. I find it funny how you can find so many owners willing to complain about pitcher inconsistency but who get defensive about any attempt to warn them off their favorites.

One of Oswalt's strengths has been his durability. But this is coming to an end. His Innings Pitched is in a four year decline and the degenerative disc in his back is not going to make it any easier for him. With the innings go the strikeout totals. His groundball rate was a five-year low, but that may have been caused by a lack of faith in a lousy infield defense. He was shutdown in September in an attempt to avoid surgery on his back. This is not good news. I am going to pass.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ramirez hit .269 with 13 homers and 43 RBIs in 77 games after returning from his 50-game suspension for failing a random drug test. I am certain that there are those owners willing to blame his poor numbers on a lack of drugs in his system. I would call them ridiculous. Whether you believe Manny was using steroids or not (he still denies it) his 2009 stats fit into the gradual decline Manny has been in for the last few years. I know how good his 2008 totals were. But I submit that they were the result of an unprecedented hot streak. A lucky streak that coincided with moving to the easier league and feeling great about finally escaping from the Boston Red Sox. Manny will be 38 in May, surely you did not believe he would just keep hitting .330 with 40 homers indefinitely?

I do not believe that Manny will be a complete waste of a roster spot in 2010. But the time has come to downgrade our expectations. Manny still has a good batting eye but was less aggressive in 2010, judging by his swinging at far fewer pitches. That could be a lack of confidence which is one of the results I think would be natural for someone who goes through the humiliation of being outed as a drug user. Especially if he then stops to avoid any further embarrassment. But what I worry about most is the combination of these factors and Manny's reputation for nonchalance. I see the worst season of his career coming.

B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
I should begin by admitting that I have owned this Upton on various teams since he was drafted. I believe in his tools. He could be a great player. But I no longer believe he will be. It is not just that I've been let down by him in the past (if that were the case my infatuation with Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill and others would be long over, ahem...) but not only have signs of growth been few and far between but the Rays are now willing to trade him. They offered him to Toronto for Roy Halladay. The Rays also have Desmond Jennings who has all the tools of Upton plus strike zone judgment. Upton would not be the first tool-laden superstud athlete to fail to become a productive regular player in MLB. I think B.J. Upton is much closer to that fate than to becoming a superstar.

These are mine. Who are yours?

To Trade David Wright or Not is the Question

I recently received the following e-mail from a loyal reader:

Jon,

I'm in a 14 team, highly competitive keeper league in the midst of our 5th year. I have owned and been extremely happy with David Wright since the leagues inception. I have finished 3rd and 4th the past two years and I'm extremely motivated to win this season. I have been offered a very enticing trade and would appreciate your unbiased fantasy mind opinion of this proposed deal.

I would be trading:
David Wright, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach Duke and Asdrubal Carbera

to obtain...

Miguel Cabrera, Brian Roberts, Heath Bell, Erik Bedard and Matt Cain

I'm very tied and invested in David Wright and find it difficult to part with him, however, I feel this deal could drastically improve my team in needed areas of HR, RBI, SV, and K please dispense upon me your knowledge and opinion of this deal.

Thanks,

Mark

I love this trade for you Mark. I do not believe you will lose anything in any category if you make this deal. Miguel Cabrera compares very well to David Wright. Wright steals a few more bases and is on a better team, but the rest of the deal makes it more than worth it.

Brian Roberts is a better fantasy option than Asdrubal Cabrera and should steal just as many bases with the added bonus of power. I like Asdrubal long term but I think he still has some developing to do despite his hot start. Roberts is a better hitter at this stage in their careers and I like the Baltimore lineup better if everyone stays healthy. Asdrubal's batting average is going to drop in the second half (as pitchers make adjustments) and Roberts will stay pretty consistent.

Heath Bell is a closer right now and one of the better ones, if not the best. The Padres offense is bad enough that Bell will be positioned for a save in just about any game the Padres lead in the ninth. Even a team as bad as the Padres will provide 40-plus save opportunities. David Price is an awsome prospect but he isn't in the majors right now. He also isn't pitching particularly well in triple-A, which is just fine with the Tampa Bay Rays who do not have a natural opening for him right now.

I like Ubaldo Jimenez as a future pitching star. Jimenez has been pitching better lately but his control is not yet at the point where he is trustworthy with a potential championship on the line. Despite his recent hamstring injury, I still prefer Erik Bedard. He is pitching very well (discounting his last start) and should help you in every pitching category but saves. If he does a short stint on the disabled list, do not fret just grab the best available middle reliever until he returns.

Zach Duke is pitching very well. The only weakness in Duke is a mediocre strikeout rate. I do think he will continue to pitch very well. Matt Cain is also pitching fairly well, if not as good as Zach Duke. He will always have a better strikeout rate. Cain's control is a little off right now but not so much that he'll harm your team (it's better than Jimenez's) and he should come around.

Mark, I think you win this trade in a huge way. It should be more than worth tearing yourself away from David Wright. Good luck, and let me know how it turns out.

Good News and Bad News

The Good News is Miguel Cabrera is staying put on the Detroit Tigers. This means that his AL-only owners do not have to fear losing one of the better hitters in baseball. The Bad News is that Miguel Cabrera is still on one of the lesser teams in the American League. The Tigers do not have a bad lineup but just because they won't consider trading Cabrera does not mean they won't trade any of their other hitters to improve the team in the long term, which would seriously impact Cabrera's production.

The Angels are considering a group of free agent starters that could be of interest to fantasy owners, which is Good News. General Manager David Reagins has contacted the agents for Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, and Mark Mulder. All of these pitchers have been fantastic fantasy options at one point or another. As a fantasy owner I am always happy when more options become available even if I am not the beneficiary. The Bad News is that these guys are all unemployed right now for a reason -- their lack of production or health (sometimes both) in their most recent appearances.

John Lackey and Ervin Santana should begin rehab assignments soon. This is good news for those owners. If they both come back healthy and effective they could be among the better pitchers in the American League. The Bad News is elbow and shoulder injuries in pitchers are always a cause for concern. The rest and rehabbing they have done did not rid them of their problems but merely strengthened the area around the injuries. The hope is that this will allow them to ignore the problem for another chunk of time. That could be a matter of years or days.

Xavier Nady will not need surgery and may be able to return in a month or so, which is Good News. The Yankees and Nady's owners were counting on him to maintain the gains he showed in the last couple of years. Unfortunately (and this is the Bad News), Nady does have a partially torn ligament in his elbow. It could completely tear at any time which is why the Yankees are now considering using him as a designated hitter. Which means that Hideki Matsui will be in the field sooner and perhaps more often than we thought. It could also mean that the Yankees will have two DH's on the roster and both will be less productive (less at-bats) than projected.

Ryan Doumit will miss the next 8 weeks (at least) after wrist surgery. This has to be considered Bad News. I engaged in some twittering yesterday about Doumit replacements (you can follow me @bigjonwilliams) and the consensus in most AL-only leagues is that the pickings are quite slim. In some leagues Lou Marson is available (I can't see him receiving many at-bats but he can hit), or Jason Jaramillo (he is not a great hitter but there are worse options). In shallower mixed leagues you might find John Baker (a great hitter without much power) or Nick Hundley ( he has power but isn't much of a hitter). The Good News is that Doumit is projected to be back in 8-10 weeks so his return to your roster will seem like a nice post All-Star Break acquisition. I also revealed that I had an opportunity to trade for Geovanny Soto to replace Doumit but the asking price turned out to be too high in my opinion. My rebuilding league mate wanted Doumit $10A, Nate McClouth $12c11, and minor leaguer Brett Wallace for Soto $15A and Brad Hawpe $27. With Soto also banged up and struggling at the plate I thought this was way too much.

What the hell is wrong with Geovanny Soto?

Ryan Doumit out 8-10 weeks, having surgery

Xavier Nady's ligament is only partially torn

Angels' Reagins begins looking outside for pitching help

The Facts About Omir Santos and (much older) Santos Shakes Off the Rust