2013 Closer Update: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Closer – Aroldis Chapman

Next – Jonathan Broxton

Sleeper – Sean Marshall

Super-Sleeper – Jose Arredondo

With manager Dusty Baker expressing his support for Aroldis Chapman as a closer and Chapman announcing that he grew to enjoy the closer role and would like to return to it, it was easy to see this coming. Chapman should immediately rise to the top of your closer rankings. He should be second only to Craig Kimbrel.Owners can expect an elite strikeout rate and excellent ratios. Click here to read more about the Cincinnati Reds decision.

It would appear that Jonathan Broxton has recovered from years of abuse at the hands of Joe Torre. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity will probably never be what they were again but Broxton has learned to be effective with what he has which is a still a nice low to mid 90s fastball. As long as his control is there he should be an effective set-up man and emergency closer. Only the return of Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen is forcing Broxton from the closer role.

The Expert League Challenge

I have had the privilege of participating in several fantasy baseball and football expert leagues. I have done well in a few of them but unfortunately have yet to actually win one. I plan to change that this season. Whether you participate in Fantasy Baseball or another type of sports betting the goal is always to win. Sometimes you want to win for recognition (as in Expert leagues) and other times you want to bring home the fantasy league pot. In either case the method is pretty much the same – develop a winning strategy and implement it to the best of your ability. 

On Sunday I drafted in two Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge Expert Leagues run by Fantasy Sports R Us. One league was an NL-only with 11 teams and the other a nine team AL-only.  My Strategy in both leagues was fairly simple. Draft at least 200 homeruns, 120 stolen bases, two closers and strikeout starters. You can judge the execution of that strategy for yourself. I was more happy with the AL team than the NL team. I was not nearly as obsessed with the Reds and Yankees as the rosters may make it appear. I failed to acquire the quality of pitching I was hoping for but think I have a solid core in both leagues.

The NL-Only Team

C Rob Brantley, Miami Marlins – showed new on-base skills after joining the Marlins

1B Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – hopefully over his shoulder problems

3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds – a talented player in a great lineup

CI Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals – an underrated power source

2B Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds – a top second basemen

SS Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee Brewers – should see time all over the field and serve as Segura insurance

MI Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals – betting on Espinosa’s shoulder problems

OF Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves – my bet to be a 2014 first round pick

OF Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals – his endurance should be better this season

OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates – a youngster with power and speed

OF Carlos Quentin, San Diego Padres – a powerful hitter who is presently healthy

OF Tony Campana, Arizona Diamondbacks – just for the stolen bases

Utl Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres – my rookie of the year pick

SP Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds – I think he’s an ace starter

SP Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks – trending very well, improved skills

SP Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs – an underrated starting pitcher

SP Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals – him too

SP Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies – put it together in the second half of the 2012 season

MR Heath Bell, Arizona Diamondbacks – betting he finds his way to saves somehow

MR Brandon Lyon, New York Mets – next in line for saves in New York

CL Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals – A top five closer

CL Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies – a top skilled closer

R Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds – If he comes up early he’ll save my horrid middle infield

R Jerry Hairston, 2B, 3B, OF Los Angeles Dodgers – love having reserves that play all over

R Erik Kratz, C, Philadelphia Phillies – should be very productive while Ruiz sits

R Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates – an ace as soon as he gets the call

R Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego Padres – help down the stretch

The AL-Only Team

C Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox – should see more at-bats in a park built for him

1B Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – he may not repeat but 30 homers is a cinch

3B Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics – a sleeper pick after getting caught looking elsewhere

CI Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees – the power is not going anywhere

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees – worthy of the number one pick in any league

SS Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians – a top shortstop

MI Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers – a quality late round middle infielder

OF Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox – big power potential

OF Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians – a solid player in a very improved lineup

OF Coco Crisp, Oakland Athletics – the stolen base master of the present

OF Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers – a better hitter than most understand

OF Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels – if he hits he should also steal bases

Utl Darin Mastroianni, Minnesota Twins – knows how to get on base and the speed skills for 70 SBs

SP Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers – better than he looked last season

SP Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox – flashed his former stuff last season, finally healthy

SP Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays – a solid pitcher on a great team

SP Vance Worley, Minnesota Twins – a pitcher I like more than you

SP Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics – a minor league strikeout leader with a rotation spot

SP Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners – the park should make him look better than his skills

SP Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – one of my bets to step up big time in 2013

MR Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics – my favorite relief sleeper

CL Brant Balfour, Oakland Athletics – the only closer left on the board

R Ryan Flaherty, 2B, 3B, OF, Baltimore Orioles – versatile and behind a brittle starter

R Matt Dominguez, 3B, Houston Astros – improved his bat skills last season, starting 3B

R Mike Aviles, Cleveland Indians – versatile reserve on a team with many potential holes

R Eduardo Nunez, New York Yankees – a young and versatile player on an aging team

R Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), SP Tampa Bay Rays – the Rays are miracle workers

Hot Prospects: Mike Minor and Aroldis Chapman

NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.

From Jason Grey

"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."

They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.

"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."

Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.

Moving Up: Drew Sutton

He has not received much of an opportunity since being called up from the minors, but Drew Sutton is a name that you should know. It may take some time for him to impress Dusty Baker. Baker as you probably know is one of the last managers you want at the helm if your young player is on his roster. The Reds will eventually see the light and install Sutton at shortstop over veteran utility player, Jerry Hairston.

Sutton will qualify at second base, shortstop, and third base in most leagues but his talent is greater than that of the typical utility player and he is too young to be sentenced to such a role already. He has the power to hit 20-plus homers in a full season, slightly above average speed but with the base-running skills to steal 20 bases. Sutton's best skill is his patience and discipline at the plate. His on-base percentage will usually approach .400 making him an excellent candidate to bat early in the batting order.

Sutton is not going to change the fortunes of your fantasy team over night. But if you can stash him away (especilly in NL-only leagues) until he begins to receive more serious playing time, your fantasy team will be greatly rewarded.

The Return of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto

If you noticed more smiles than usual around the water cooler today it may be that you are looking at the fantasy owners of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto. It does not matter what format you were playing in or how good your team has done in the meanwhile. Getting one (or even both) of these guys back in action is like pulling off a major trade in which you gave up absolutely nothing. It feels almost as good as it hurt when you lost them in the first place.

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore is avoiding rehab in the minor leagues for the elbow injury that has bothered him since spring training. The Cleveland Indians have been calling the injury an inflamed elbow. The Indians also caution that any further set backs will likely result in season-ending elbow surgery. Sizemore is insisting that his elbow feels good and that he did not feel any pain when he tested the elbow over the weekend. We can only hope that he is telling the truth and that the tests were strenuous enough to be conclusive.

Playing through the pain did not do anything good for Sizemore's early season numbers. When he hit the disabled list he was batting .223/.309/.417 with nine homers and seven stolen bases (of 13 attempts) in 206 at-bats. It is very difficult to measure how much the injury played into his start. His walk rate was down, his strikeout rate was up but other than that everything (excluding the SB-rate) seemed to be typical of Sizemore.

There is no avoiding the fact that Sizemore is a risk for fantasy teams. A sore elbow has the potential to alter his swing and significantly change his results. It could also make him more cautious on the base paths. All that said if I had the opportunity to add Sizemore to one of my rosters I would do it without hesitation. The risk is extremely high but so is the reward. Don't part with your best cogs to add him but if you can manage it without them, I would endorse the move in leagues of every format.

Joey Votto

Unlike Sizemore, Votto has been rehabbing in the minor leagues and looks on his game. What exactly was ailing Votto has been kept under wraps by Votto and the Cincinnati Reds. We know that he had an inner-ear infection which was complicated by continuing to fly with the condition. He was forced to leave a few games with dizziness. But then he was placed on the disabled list with what the Reds called a stress-related problem. This could be almost anything from stress over the vertigo to a more serious problem they probably exacerbated by not sidelining him when the problem first occurred. Apparently the secrecy over his condition is at the request of Votto himself.

From the National Post:

"Have faith in me as a person that I would make the right decisions for myself and the ball club. I would never sell the team or the city of Cincinnati short,'' he said. "I think I give every single Cincinnati Reds fan exactly what they pay for. I feel like at times, I give more, because [baseball] engrosses my life. It takes a lot of my time emotionally and physically --off the field, too.'

Votto was on fire to start the season and was blasting homeruns even while suffering from the ear infection complications. He went on the disabled list with a slash line of .357/.464/.627 with eight homeruns and two stolen bases in just 126 at-bats. It appears to me that this was totally inline with Votto's development into a great baseball player.

I think the risk with Votto is minimal. He looks and sounds healthy and in a positive state of mind according to local reports. Which is extremely significant if stress alone truly did lead to his DL stint.

From the National Post:

"I was just joking around with people," said Votto as he smiled through a post-game interview on Sunday. "I was in such a good mood today because it's been such a struggle getting through games that I couldn't help but have a smile on my face."

I believe that Joey Votto will go directly back to proving himself one of the best players in the National League. He should hit for a great batting average and very nice power. His owners should not hesitate to activate him. If for some reason he is available in your league grabbing him should be your number one priority.

Jake Fox May Solve Your Joey Votto Problems

The Cincinnati Reds star first baseman, Joey Votto, has been placed on the disabled list with "Stress Problems" which we're left to assume are the result of his inner ear problem. Why the Reds are calling this stress is a mystery to me. But the Reds do a lot of things I don't understand. Why was Joey Votto continuing to fly around the country with an ear infection anyway? They made a serious problem even worse by not simply putting him on the DL when they discovered the problem. They've also hesitated to disable their other injured players. Brandon Phillips is now playing with a fracture in his thumb. If he keeps batting, it will only get worse.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com:

Dizziness from the inner ear infection that's been dogging Reds first baseman Joey Votto struck again Friday night. The club has avoided putting Votto on the disabled list for more than two weeks but that could change soon.

Votto, the team's best hitter, started against the Brewers but came out of the game before the Reds took the field for the bottom of the second inning. Catcher Ramon Hernandez moved to first base and Ryan Hanigan took over behind the plate.

After the game in the manager's office, a 40-minute closed-door meeting was held with Reds manager Dusty Baker, general manager Walt Jocketty, head trainer Mark Mann and Votto.

No roster move was announced once the door opened, but Baker said that Votto would not play on Saturday.

Votto emerged from the meeting and appeared to be in a good mood but declined to comment to reporters.

"Not right now," Votto said.

Baker was asked if Votto was OK.

"No , not really," a somber Baker responded. "He felt similar symptoms that he's been feeling in the past and just came out."

It was the third time since May 11 that dizzy spells have forced Votto out of a game. On May 21 after a battery of tests, the inner ear infection was revealed.

The conditions of the inner ear infection can be exasperated by flying, which Votto did with the club on Thursday during the off-day. Unlike with the previous incidents that happened on the West Coast following flights, the trip to Milwaukee is a relatively short one.

Replacing Votto, especially in NL-only leagues is going to be difficult. But if you're in a weekly transaction league or just a league with some owners who are slow on the draw there may be an option for you. The Chicago Cubs recently called up slugger Jake Fox. Fox is a former catcher who has struggled to find a position. He has spent most of his time recently at outfield and first base but has also spent time at third base. The guys at the Fake Teams Blog have posted an informative article that may discourage you from picking him up.

But after you're done being discouraged note Fox's slash line of .423/.503/.886 that's insanely good. I don't care how bad his defense is or what league he's been playing in or what he's been injecting (that's just a joke I haven't heard a thing). Fox is blocked by Derek Lee at first base but the Cubs could squeeze him into the outfield to fire up the offense. Fox is also a prime candidate to DH in inter-league games. I haven't checked the schedule for the Cub's AL games (okay I did, six games against the White Sox and Tigers to end June) but I'm trying to be optimistic here. Fox was leading the minors with 17 homeruns at the time he was called up. If there is a manager on the planet I trust to fit to fit a bat like this into the lineup it is Lou Pinella. I won the FAAB Bidding in my primary NL-only league with a $32 bid. Even if he doesn't play much it can't be much worse than collecting awful at-bats from the scrubs likely to be on the waiver wire at this point in the season.

Jake Fox Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
2006	Cubs (A+)	9.80%	19.70%	0.383	0.574	0.261	0.337	55.8	21.7	0.421
2006	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	22.80%	0.304	0.435	0.166	0.326	24.2	2.6	0.336
2007	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	20.10%	0.327	0.504	0.220	0.312	57.2	11	0.367
2007	Cubs (AAA)	4.80%	23.20%	0.343	0.535	0.253	0.314	17.8	3.5	0.381
2007	Cubs	6.70%	14.30%	0.200	0.286	0.143	0.167	0.4	-1.5	0.214
2008	Cubs (AA)	10.60%	18.80%	0.397	0.580	0.273	0.324	89.3	32.8	0.428
2008	Cubs (AAA)	1.70%	26.50%	0.242	0.479	0.256	0.25	11.9	-4.4	0.305
2009	Cubs (AAA)	10.20%	18.80%	0.503	0.886	0.463	0.442	57.3	34.7	0.574
2009	Cubs	0.00%	25.00%	0.750	1.000	0.250	1	1.9	1.4	0.764