Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Top First Basemen Ranked By wOBA




Name AVG OBP SLG BABIP wOBA
Albert Pujols 0.357 0.462 0.653 0.346 0.458
Lance Berkman 0.312 0.42 0.567 0.345 0.419
Mark Teixeira 0.308 0.41 0.552 0.321 0.41
Kevin Youkilis 0.312 0.39 0.569 0.347 0.402
Jason Giambi 0.247 0.373 0.502 0.257 0.377
Miguel Cabrera 0.292 0.349 0.537 0.316 0.376
Carlos Pena 0.247 0.377 0.494 0.307 0.374
Nick Johnson 0.22 0.415 0.431 0.241 0.374
Joey Votto 0.297 0.368 0.506 0.33 0.373
Christopher Davis 0.285 0.331 0.549 0.353 0.371
Prince Fielder 0.276 0.372 0.507 0.305 0.37
Ronnie Belliard 0.287 0.372 0.473 0.326 0.369
Justin Morneau 0.3 0.374 0.499 0.318 0.369
Adrian Gonzalez 0.279 0.361 0.51 0.311 0.368
Martin Prado 0.32 0.377 0.461 0.36 0.367
Ryan Howard 0.251 0.339 0.543 0.289 0.366
Carlos Delgado 0.271 0.353 0.518 0.284 0.364
Conor Jackson 0.3 0.376 0.446 0.321 0.364
Pablo Sandoval 0.345 0.357 0.49 0.367 0.361
Hank Blalock 0.287 0.338 0.508 0.301 0.361
Derrek Lee 0.291 0.361 0.462 0.333 0.36
Adam LaRoche 0.27 0.341 0.5 0.313 0.357
Dmitri Young 0.28 0.394 0.4 0.322 0.352
Todd Helton 0.264 0.391 0.388 0.298 0.347
Jorge Cantu 0.277 0.327 0.481 0.297 0.346
Sean Casey 0.322 0.381 0.392 0.368 0.344
Paul Konerko 0.24 0.344 0.438 0.247 0.343
Lyle Overbay 0.27 0.358 0.419 0.32 0.342
Jeff Baker 0.268 0.322 0.468 0.337 0.34
Mike Jacobs 0.247 0.299 0.514 0.264 0.338
Garrett Atkins 0.286 0.328 0.452 0.314 0.337
Doug Mientkiewicz 0.277 0.374 0.379 0.302 0.337
Travis Ishikawa 0.274 0.337 0.432 0.354 0.337
James Loney 0.289 0.338 0.434 0.32 0.333
Ryan Garko 0.273 0.346 0.404 0.306 0.333
Frank Catalanotto 0.274 0.342 0.399 0.304 0.329
Javier Valentin 0.256 0.326 0.411 0.296 0.325
Nick Swisher 0.219 0.332 0.41 0.251 0.325
Rich Aurilia 0.283 0.332 0.413 0.308 0.324
Casey Kotchman 0.272 0.328 0.41 0.273 0.322
Mike Sweeney 0.286 0.331 0.397 0.288 0.322
Billy Butler 0.275 0.324 0.4 0.296 0.318
Chris Duncan 0.248 0.346 0.365 0.299 0.318
Kevin Millar 0.234 0.323 0.394 0.249 0.315
Richie Sexson 0.221 0.321 0.382 0.275 0.314
Tony Clark 0.225 0.359 0.318 0.333 0.314
Chad Tracy 0.267 0.308 0.414 0.301 0.313
Daryle Ward 0.216 0.319 0.402 0.243 0.309
Chris Shelton 0.216 0.333 0.33 0.306 0.308
Wilson Betemit 0.265 0.289 0.429 0.346 0.308
John Bowker 0.255 0.3 0.408 0.302 0.307
Daric Barton 0.226 0.327 0.348 0.272 0.302
Aaron Boone 0.241 0.299 0.384 0.287 0.297
Jeffrey Larish 0.26 0.306 0.375 0.368 0.297
Miguel Cairo 0.249 0.316 0.33 0.291 0.293
Bryan Lahair 0.25 0.315 0.346 0.333 0.292
Robb Quinlan 0.262 0.326 0.311 0.311 0.291
Ross Gload 0.273 0.317 0.348 0.298 0.29
Wes Helms 0.243 0.299 0.347 0.309 0.287
Paul Lo Duca 0.243 0.321 0.295 0.259 0.287
Kory Casto 0.215 0.297 0.313 0.264 0.277
Mark Sweeney 0.13 0.25 0.163 0.188 0.208

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Sunday, December 14, 2008

Top Catchers Ranked By wOBA



Name AVG OBP SLG BABIP wOBA
Mike Napoli 0.273 0.374 0.586 0.307 0.399
Chris Iannetta 0.264 0.39 0.505 0.314 0.391
Brian McCann 0.301 0.373 0.523 0.308 0.387
Joe Mauer 0.328 0.413 0.451 0.35 0.378
Geovany Soto 0.285 0.364 0.504 0.337 0.371
Kelly Shoppach 0.261 0.348 0.517 0.359 0.37
Ryan Doumit 0.318 0.357 0.501 0.338 0.367
John Baker 0.299 0.392 0.447 0.375 0.365
Pablo Sandoval 0.345 0.357 0.49 0.367 0.361
Russell Martin 0.28 0.385 0.396 0.311 0.351
Chris Snyder 0.237 0.348 0.452 0.29 0.346
Jorge Posada 0.268 0.364 0.411 0.331 0.34
Dioner Navarro 0.295 0.349 0.407 0.321 0.33
Miguel Montero 0.255 0.33 0.435 0.323 0.33
Bengie Molina 0.292 0.322 0.445 0.292 0.328
Chris Coste 0.263 0.325 0.423 0.294 0.326
Javier Valentin 0.256 0.326 0.411 0.296 0.325
Ramon Castro 0.245 0.312 0.441 0.275 0.324
Yadier Molina 0.304 0.349 0.392 0.314 0.323
Dave Ross 0.225 0.369 0.352 0.29 0.321
Kurt Suzuki 0.279 0.346 0.37 0.311 0.32
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.253 0.352 0.364 0.388 0.319
Ivan Rodriguez 0.276 0.319 0.394 0.318 0.317
Gregg Zaun 0.237 0.34 0.359 0.259 0.316
Gerald Laird 0.276 0.329 0.398 0.324 0.315
A.J. Pierzynski 0.281 0.312 0.416 0.304 0.314
Henry Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.337 0.314
Miguel Olivo 0.255 0.278 0.444 0.311 0.313
Ramon Hernandez 0.257 0.308 0.406 0.269 0.31
Brian Schneider 0.257 0.339 0.367 0.282 0.309
Victor Martinez 0.278 0.337 0.365 0.31 0.308
Rod Barajas 0.249 0.294 0.41 0.274 0.307
Shawn Riggans 0.222 0.287 0.407 0.242 0.302
Jesus Flores 0.256 0.296 0.402 0.321 0.301
Jason Varitek 0.22 0.313 0.359 0.278 0.299
Brandon Inge 0.205 0.303 0.369 0.248 0.297
Mike Redmond 0.287 0.321 0.333 0.314 0.294
Jason Kendall 0.246 0.327 0.324 0.267 0.293
Yorvit Torrealba 0.246 0.293 0.394 0.28 0.293
John Buck 0.224 0.304 0.365 0.279 0.292
Jeff Clement 0.227 0.295 0.36 0.304 0.289
Kevin Cash 0.225 0.309 0.338 0.326 0.289
Chad Moeller 0.231 0.311 0.33 0.278 0.287
Paul Lo Duca 0.243 0.321 0.295 0.259 0.287
Jason LaRue 0.213 0.296 0.348 0.221 0.286
Wil Nieves 0.261 0.309 0.341 0.308 0.285
Toby Hall 0.26 0.304 0.331 0.292 0.282
Carlos Ruiz 0.219 0.32 0.3 0.237 0.279
Nicholas Hundley 0.237 0.278 0.359 0.298 0.278
Jamie Burke 0.261 0.303 0.326 0.274 0.277
Matt Treanor 0.238 0.306 0.301 0.311 0.277
Paul Bako 0.217 0.299 0.328 0.291 0.274
Kenji Johjima 0.227 0.277 0.332 0.233 0.272
Brad Ausmus 0.218 0.303 0.296 0.256 0.267
Raul Chavez 0.259 0.287 0.319 0.287 0.267
Jeff Mathis 0.194 0.275 0.318 0.25 0.26
Ronny Paulino 0.212 0.277 0.305 0.25 0.26
Michael Barrett 0.202 0.274 0.298 0.224 0.259
Jose Molina 0.216 0.263 0.313 0.258 0.257
Humberto Quintero 0.226 0.27 0.298 0.273 0.256
Josh Bard 0.202 0.279 0.27 0.23 0.249
Guillermo Quiroz 0.187 0.259 0.269 0.235 0.242
Mike Rabelo 0.202 0.256 0.294 0.235 0.242
J.R. Towles 0.137 0.25 0.253 0.157 0.235
Luke Carlin 0.149 0.238 0.234 0.22 0.221

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2008-09 MLB's Non-Tendered Free Agents

There are a lot of interesting names among the non-tendered free agents this year. On the surface it may seem that this list of names is irrelevant to fantasy league owners but that assumption would be very wrong. This is about the all important context. If a team essentially cuts players from their starting lineup than other players will be replacing them. The owner that identifies that replacement soonest gains an advantage over his leaguemates. In the article below I've listed all of the non-tendered free agents and commented where I think the possibilities are interesting.

Astros - Ty Wigginton, 3B; Reggie Abercrombie OF
Ty Wigginton would be a solid addition to most lineups. He can play first base or third base and even second base or a corner outfield position in a pinch. He has a few on-base skills and hits for power. Wigginton was let go because the Astros felt they could not afford to keep him. The 2008 season was the best of Wigginton's career despite only 386 at-bats. The Astros do not appear to have a ready replacement for Wigginton. One possibility would be thuggles e early promotion of third-base prospect Chris Johnson. Johnson is smooth defensively but still has some developing to do at the plate. He makes very good contact and has 25-homer power but tends to wait for the fastball and struggles when pitchers don't oblige him.

Reggie Abercrombie is expected to a sign a minor league deal with the Astros and return for the 2009 season.

Braves - Chuck James, LHP
Chuck James was once very highly rated as a Braves pitching prospect but upon his graduation to the majors his K/9 took a significant dip even as his BB/9 rose. James suffered an elbow injury that will almost certainly cause him to miss the 2009 season. The Braves will attempt to sign him to a minor league contract.

The Braves have been determined to add frontline pitching talent to their 2009 rotation. They have already traded for veteran innings eater Javier Vazquez. They made a strong attempt to trade for Jake Peavy but understandably the Padres expectations were extremely high. The Braves also made a very serious bid to acquire pitcher A.J. Burnett who signed with the New York Yankees instead.

It is obvious the Braves intend to add another veteran pitcher to their rotation. If the remaining free agent options do not appeal to them they could return to trade possibilities. Jake Peavy is still an option and the price will come down as the Padres get more desperate to complete a deal.

Brewers - Chris Capuano, LHP
Chris Capuano
missed the entire 2008 season after suffering an elbow injury. He eventually had to endure his second Tommy John Elbow Surgery. The Brewers have been involved in his rehab and are hoping to re-sign Capuano to a minor league deal.

Cardinals
- Randy Flores, LHP; Tyler Johnson, LHP; Aaron Miles, 2B
The St. Louis Cardinals should be able to find better players than this group in theor sleep. Tony LaRussa has stated a few times this off season that he believes there is a valuable intimidation factor to having big name players in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

Diamondbacks - Chris Burke, INF; Robby Hammock, C; Wil Ledezma, LHP; Jeff Salazar, OF
The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed Felipe Lopez to replace departing second baseman Orlando Hudson. Chris Burke was once thought to be Hudson's potential replacement but he has been just barely above useless as a Diamondback.

Dodgers
- Mario Alvarez, RHP; Angel Berroa, SS; Yhency Brazoban, RHP; Scott Proctor, RHP; Takashi Saito, RHP
With Jonathan Broxton established in the closer role the Dodgers saw little need to bring back Takashi Saito. Saito missed a large portion of the season with an elbow injury and was due to gain a significant raise in salary. Saito has been an effective closer in his short major league career. He has the high strikeout rate (11.63), the low walk rate (2.47). He doesn't allow many homeruns (0.43 HR/9) thanks in part to his good groundball rate (42 percent). Saito, if healthy, should be a bargain closer option for some team in 2009.

Mariners - Jamie Burke, C

Marlins
- Joe Nelson, RHP

Nationals - Tim Redding, RHP
The Nationals tried very hard to trade Tim Redding but they either set the price too high or it was obvious to other teams that he would eventually be non-tendered. Redding is a very replaceable pitcher and the Nationals just did not want to guve him a raise. The Nationals still need every capable arm they can find so it would not be shocking to see them try to bring Redding back at a discount.

Orioles - Daniel Cabrera, RHP; Lance Cormier RHP
Daniel Cabrera has great stuff. Despite terrible control he tends to induce groundballs. prior to the 2008 season he was a good strikeout pitcher as well. His walk rate (although still extremely high) has gone down three years in a row. It is very easy to speculate that Cabrera's attempts to bring the walks under control cost him in strikeouts. The Orioles were not willing to give him a raise while still unsatisfied with the now 27-year old starter. I think he would make a dynamic relief pitcher. Some team will give him a job in the bullpen this season and a sleeper will be born.

Padres - Clay Hensley, RHP; Charlie Haeger, RHP

Phillies - Scott Mathieson, RHP

Pirates
- Denny Bautista, RHP

Rangers
- Doug Mathis, RHP

Rays
- Jonny Gomes, OF
If if there is a non-tendered free agent with the ability to turn into the next David Ortiz, it is Jonny Gomes. He has extremely good power. He strikes out a lot but he also draws a good number of walks. He hits flyballs and linedrives like crazy. He was also unlucky last season with just a .200 BABIP in 2008 compared to a career average of .294. If Gomes lands on the right team in the right role he will explode in production. The Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners would all be great places for him to land.

Red Sox
- Kevin Cash, C

Rockies
- Jonathan Herrera, IF; Willy Taveras, OF
Willy Taveras is not an amazing player but he has a few very useful skills. He plays a solid center field (he makes a lot of mistakes but his speed makes up for many of them). He hits the ball on the ground which gives him the best chance to utilize his speed to get on base. He also is a very good base stealer (he is successful in about 80 percent of his attempts). These are skills that many teams could use.

The Rockies tried to trade Taveras but too many teams were correctly convinced that the Rockies would eventually non-tender him. The Rockies will turn to the newly acquired Carlos Gonzalez in center field and hope that he develops faster for them than he did with the Oakland athletics. The Rockies have a deep collection of outfielders coming through the system and infielders that will probably need to be moved. Dexter Fowler and Eric Young are two that should excel and take two spots in the outfield before the end of the 2009 season.

Royals
- John Bale, LHP; Jairo Cuevas, RHP; Joey Gathright, OF; Jason Smith, IF

Yankees
- Chris Britton, RHP; Justin Christian, OF

Friday, December 12, 2008

More Hot Stove Free-Agent Signings

The Yankees have reached an agreement with RHP A.J. Burnett and the Indians have all but signed closer Kerry Wood. You can read my complete analysis of those pitchers on the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog.

The New York Yankees Sign A.J. Burnett
As a New York Yankees fan I'm not all that enamored of the much rumored plan the Yankees have to sign three free agent starters.The plan forces Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Ian Kennedy out of the rotation to begin the 2009 season. This seems like the wrong move to me. Signing CC Sabathia was a necessity for the Yankees. They needed that intimidating starter to place at the head of their rotation. I can even understand the second free agent pitcher so that the young guys are not just given a job and will instead have to fight for it. But to sign a third and probably older starter and seemingly give up on the youth movement is just not good team building.
The Tribe Inches Closer to Closer Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood took a physical for the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Assuming that Wood passed he would soon sign a contract with the Indians expected to be for two years and $20 million. Wood stayed relatively healthy last season as the Cubs closer and was also very effective in the role. He converted 34 of 40 save opportunities while providing the Cubs with 66 and 1/3 innings. He struck out out 84 and walked just 18 batters. He is moving to the tougher league but this generally has a greater effect on starters than relievers.


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2008 Team Defensive Ranking by UZR

The chart below is a ranking of every Major League Baseball team by UZR. UZR is one of the best statistical measurements of defense yet created. Please note however that defense statistics stil have a long way to go. Still, examining this chart and ones like it that you can find on sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and others when your ranking your potential pitching selections can be quite valuable when it comes to guessing on potential breakouts and sleepers.

A team that has dramatically improved it's defense is more likely to findpitching breakouts than the other way around. For those of you unfamiliar with UZR I've borrowed a description from Baseball Think Factory (this link is a good one to read) :

UZR rate is expressed as a fraction of 1, the same as a simple ZR (ZR). A UZR rate means essentially the same thing as a simple ZR � namely the number of balls fielded (turned into at least one out) divided by the number of chances; however, UZR rate is a weighted average of a player�s ZR in each of several zones.

As you will see, UZR rate is really a by-product of UZR runs, and UZR runs is the heart of the UZR system. It represents the value of a fielder�s performance expressed as runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder (actually in comparison to the mean performance of all fielders) at that position, in that player�s league, and during that particular year. UZR runs is the defensive counterpart of Palmer�s offensive linear weights (lwts); thus it can be combined with lwts (among other things) to give you an estimate of a player�s total offensive and defensive value. Any player with an average defensive performance will, by definition, have exactly zero UZR runs.



Team G E DP FP UZR
Rays 2080 90 429 0.985 70.6
Phillies 2181 90 380 0.985 48.5
Red Sox 2146 85 399 0.986 44.3
Athletics 2126 98 467 0.984 31.5
Astros 2125 67 379 0.989 30.8
Cardinals 2297 85 430 0.986 30.4
Nationals 2160 123 387 0.98 29.1
Brewers 2002 101 425 0.984 21.7
Giants 2216 96 341 0.984 21.3
Royals 2124 96 431 0.984 19.2
Blue Jays 2042 84 366 0.986 19
Mets 2194 83 344 0.986 14.8
Cubs 2180 99 311 0.983 9.8
Indians 2010 94 498 0.985 6.2
Marlins 2221 117 328 0.98 0.8
Angels 2030 91 441 0.985 -0.5
Braves 2161 107 404 0.983 -0.8
Orioles 2126 100 441 0.983 -2
Padres 2097 85 401 0.986 -14.5
Pirates 2092 107 504 0.983 -17.8
White Sox 2134 108 427 0.983 -18
Twins 2078 108 465 0.983 -25.5
Diamondbacks 2073 113 374 0.981 -25.8
Mariners 2075 99 430 0.984 -32.8
Dodgers 2205 101 376 0.984 -35.8
Rangers 2107 132 528 0.979 -35.8
Tigers 2122 113 466 0.981 -38
Yankees 2143 83 366 0.986 -39.4
Reds 2204 114 414 0.981 -41.7
Rockies 2122 96 466 0.985 -70.9

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