Adam Ronis - A Knight of the Roundtable

Adam Ronis of News Day is the host of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable this week. He asked the assembled Knights if there were players that we would not draft no matter how far they slipped in the draft or auction. You can read the entry at the link below:

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Hosted By Adam Ronis

Moving Up: Marcus Thames

With Gary Sheffield's release last week Marcus Thames received a huge boost in fantasy value. He should receive close to regular at-bats by taking most of the designated hitter at-bats as well as playing some left field when Carlos Guillen is unable to play or just needs a break. But how good is Marcus Thames?

Thames has shown the ability to hit 40 plus homers if given a full season of at-bats (550-600). Unfortunately, even if he receives those at-bats he isn't likely to hit better than .250-.260 and potentially worse than that. He does not walk much so his on-base percentage will be fairly low, though he may receive more walks due to the intimidation factor of an increasing homer total. This is not the player that will turn your team from a loser to dominate (if such a player even exists), but he can turn a good team to an even better one assuming that you are not also rostering Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds.

His stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Total Postseason	- - - - - -	7.7 % 4.5 %	28.0 % 28.6 %	0.30 0.17	.302 .273	.498 .333	.801 .606	.257 .095	.265 .333	183.6 1.5	9.5 -1.2	.338 .266
2002	Yankees	0.0 %	30.8 %	0.00	.231	.538	.769	.308	.250	1.5	-0.1	.321
2003	Rangers	9.9 %	24.7 %	0.44	.298	.274	.572	.068	.259	5.5	-4.8	.259
2004	Tigers	8.8 %	25.5 %	0.38	.326	.509	.835	.255	.283	26.2	3.4	.352
2005	Tigers	7.8 %	35.5 %	0.24	.263	.411	.674	.215	.226	10.4	-3.8	.287
2006	Tigers	9.6 %	26.4 %	0.40	.333	.549	.882	.293	.274	61.8	12.9	.370
2006	Tigers	4.5 %	28.6 %	0.17	.273	.333	.606	.095	.333	1.5	-1.2	.266
2007	Tigers (AAA)	0.0 %	12.5 %	0.00	.375	.750	1.125	.375	.333	1.9	1.0	.491
2007	Tigers	4.6 %	26.8 %	0.18	.278	.498	.776	.257	.263	34.0	-1.1	.327
2008	Tigers	7.1 %	30.1 %	0.25	.292	.516	.808	.275	.260	44.1	2.9	.339
2009	Bill James	8.3 %	25.1 %	0.36	.314	.512	.826	.261	.268	50.9	2.8	.352
2009	CHONE	8.2 %	27.7 %	0.32	.314	.506	.820	.257	.274	53.3	7.7	.352
2009	Marcel	7.6 %	26.8 %	0.31	.306	.490	.796	.244	.275	49.8	1.7	.337
2009	Oliver	7.7 %	25.4 %	0.33	.312	.514	.826	.261	.275	45.8	4.9	.348
2009	ZiPS	7.8 %	27.7 %	0.30	.309	.512	.821	.263	.274	43.1	5.7	.349

New England Rotisserie Baseball Association

NERBA, or the New England Rotisserie Baseball Association, had its draft on Tuesday night. Nerba, as we affectionately refer to the league, is entering season 22. The number of teams has varied over the years from 20 in the good ol' days to down to 14 in the worst years. But it has been pretty stable lately at 16 teams. It is obviously a mixed league and uses standard 5x5 categories. It is not a snake draft. The pick each team has varies in each round, which can create unique challenges when you end up with 32 selections between picks twice in a row. Most of these guys are 20-year veterans of fantasy and know their stuff pretty well.

This is one of many leagues where I usually avoid pitching until after the first 8-10 rounds. I varied from that strategy hugely by taking three pitchers in the first eight rounds. I tried to draft as many power/speed combos as possible but mostly I was just winging it.
The Really Rad Running Rebels (in this league I'm a different sort of running rebel every season)

C Kenji Johjima
C Jesus Flores

1B Mike Jacobs
3B Aubrey Huff
CI Todd Helton

2B Alexei Ramirez
SS Elvis Andrus
MI Placido Polanco

OF Matt Kemp
OF Shane Victorino
OF Torii Hunter
OF Daniel Murphy
OF Jordan Schafer

U Kendry Morales

SP Tim Lincecum
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Manny Parra
SP Kenshim Kawakami

RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Brad Zeigler
RP Scott Downs
RP Jeremy Affeldt

Thoughts?

The Detroit Tigers Go Young

Not so much on this blog but in conversations with league mates and on message boards I've been saying that Gary Sheffield was toast and not worth drafting. That said, I was shocked when I heard that the Tigers had released him. Fourteen million is a lot to pay a player to perform for another team. I should have seen it coming when they acquired Josh Anderson (who I like a lot). I see Marcus Thames and Carlos Guillen getting the bulk of the designated hitter at-bats with Anderson frequently starting in the outfield for a boost to both the defense and the team speed.

I expect to see Anderson leading off for the Tigers more often than not. He does not walk much, but his very good contact skills and speed allow him to post acceptable on-base percentages. His speed should be very disruptive to the opposition. I see 30-40 steals for Anderson this season.

Anderson's stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Total	- - -	6.0 %	19.2 %	0.33	.364	.419	.782	.103	.379	30.8	4.0	.351
2006	Astros (AA)	4.6 %	13.0 %	0.37	.349	.385	.734	.077	.351	76.5	-1.2	.339
2007	Astros (AAA)	5.9 %	14.6 %	0.43	.325	.341	.666	.068	.317	58.4	-16.5	.311
2007	Astros	6.9 %	9.0 %	0.83	.413	.403	.816	.045	.393	11.3	2.0	.363
2008	Braves (AAA)	5.7 %	11.5 %	0.53	.358	.405	.763	.091	.349	75.5	11.0	.354
2008	Braves	5.6 %	24.3 %	0.24	.338	.426	.764	.132	.370	19.5	1.9	.344
2009	Bill James	5.1 %	13.8 %	0.39	.322	.362	.684	.079	.323	40.2	-11.3	.312
2009	CHONE	5.6 %	15.7 %	0.38	.332	.374	.706	.088	.334	67.9	-4.0	.319
2009	Marcel	7.7 %	19.4 %	0.43	.351	.423	.774	.130	.343	35.4	1.7	.339
2009	Oliver	4.7 %	15.8 %	0.31	.318	.363	.681	.085	.322	65.8	-16.6	.304
2009	ZiPS	5.0 %	13.6 %	0.38	.310	.337	.647	.070	.303	58.6	-14.8	.298

The Tigers also awarded Ryan Perry a spot in the major league bullpen. He will not be closing, at least not right away. Jim Leyland plans to give Fernando Rodney the first opportunity. Rodney has been a solid reliever but has failed when given closer responsibilities. Perry was drafted with the expectation that he could quickly reach the majors and contribute to the bullpen. The closer of the future label has been tossed around a lot. He's definitely going to be a target of mine this weekend if the price is right.

Perry is very young and has not spent much time in the minors. But he has fantastic stuff. You can see his college numbers here. For what is worth here are his MiLB stats thus far:

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2008	Tigers (R)	18.00	0.00	4.00	0.00	.000	0.00	.000	100.0 %	-0.80
2008	Tigers (A+)	9.26	5.40	1.71	0.00	.313	1.89	.418	73.9 %	3.20
2009	CHONE	4.85	5.88	0.82	1.73	.290	1.81	.296	68.3 %	6.63

Tigers Release Gary Sheffield

Porcello and Perry Earn Roster Spots

Porcello in Starting Rotation

...Go the Spoils

The latest (waiver) Wire column is up at Crucial Sports. This week's article dives into some of the spring training battles and tries to decide if the losers will retain any value. This was written just before the flurry of activity the last few days. More computer problems have limited my posting ability. This time it's my moden or router (maybe both). Anyway, You'll probably see a lot of stuff pop up on the site tonight and tomorrow in my ten minute hits of internet access. So, yes, lots of short to the point posts.

A sample from The (Waiver) Wire.

Seth Smith over the Top Prospects as Rockies Left Fielder

Because of their loaded outfield, the Rockies forced Seth Smith to spend an extra year at Triple-A Colorado Springs. Smith is a fine hitter. He makes excellent contact and draws walks, which bodes well for his batting average. The Rockies will be batting Smith second in the lineup to take advantage of his high on-base percentage. He is more of a doubles hitter than a homerun hitter but 15-20 homers playing in the thin air is very possible. Smith runs well, but has not been a big base stealer.

The Wire Option

Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are likely to spend most of the season in the minors. Both players have tremendous tools and project as future major league regulars and could be stars. There is likely no need for them in 2009 with Matt Murton and infielders like Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker likely to appear in the outfield. Murton makes an excellent reserve because of his power potential. Murton definitely intrigued Rockies fans with his excellent spring performance.

Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer

Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”

All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Braves Deal Center Fielder to Tigers

The Atlanta Braves sent outfielder Josh Anderson to the Detroit Tigers for reliever Rudy Darrow. This is pretty clear evidence that top prospect Jordan Schafer has won Atlanta's center field job.

From MLB.com
Anderson was in competition for the center-field job with the Braves, but immediately hit the trading block when he apparently lost out to Jordan Schafer. He'll be an extra outfielder in Detroit, where the starting trio of Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez is set. The 26-year-old Anderson played 40 games with the Braves last year, batting .294 with seven doubles, three home runs, 12 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. His Minor League numbers give a better glimpse of his speed, he swiped 42 bases in 49 attempts over 121 games at Triple-A Richmond last year and boasts 280 stolen bases in his six-year Minor League career.

Jordan Schafer should add speed and power to the Braves lineup. I see him becoming an eventual 20/20 type on an annual basis. I hardily recommend him in all NL-only leagues and he should contribute in deeper mixed leagues as well.