Hot Prospect: Kyle Blanks

The Padres have announced the call up of their number one prospect, Kyle Blanks. Although his best position is first base, Blanks will start in the Padres outfield four or five days per week. He only qualifies at first base right now in most leagues. If you have seen Kyle Blanks in action you may wonder about the 6'6'', 250-plus pounder's ability to cover the huge territory of left field in Petco Park. However Blanks is every athletic and considers playing good defense a point of pride.

Blanks is a very talented hitter. Throughout his minor league career he has shown the ability to hit for a high batting average. This year, his first at triple-A has been a little different. He seems to have traded some contact for increased power. His 2009 K-rate was 27 percent, but he had 12 homeruns in 233 at-bats. He runs well and will steal the occasional base. He is a fly ball hitter who also hits a considerable number of line drives.

I love Blanks as a prospect but his contact rate this season concerns me. Blanks is at his best when he is making good contact and hitting line drives to all fields. My gut feeling is that he will do very well. But if he maintains his current contact rate he may not hit for much of an average. And we all know that power numbers are reduced at Petco. He should be useful in all NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues.

Statistics via FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Padres (A)	10.50%	25.60%	0.382	0.455	0.162	2.3	0.365	0.389
2007	Padres (A+)	8.60%	21.10%	0.380	0.540	0.239	6.3	0.338	0.403
2008	Padres (AA)	9.40%	18.30%	0.404	0.514	0.189	4.3	0.366	0.408
2009	Padres (AAA)	14.30%	27.00%	0.393	0.485	0.202	2.1	0.342	0.391

Which Fantasy Sports Do You Play? (check all)

Avoiding the Fantasy Baseball Blues

There comes a time in the Fantasy Baseball Season when a certain type of owner begins to lose interest. This is usually because they realize that the team they have built is not capable of winning as presently composed. Although I am not a fan of giving up or rebuilding, (rebuilding is for wussies) I thought I would write a series of articles about how to deal with the Fantasy Baseball Blues as you struggle through the rebuilding process. Whether you choose to keep trying to win in the present season or to set yourself up for the next season, it requires incredible patience. I will deal with how to handle the rebuilding process itself but I think it is still a bit early for that.

Sports Betting
When your team is not competitive you have to find ways to keep the adrenaline flowing. One of the extremely fun ways is to bet on baseball games. This will give you a reason to dig through the box scores and study the MLB totals. You need that drive to win and be the best to succeed at MLB betting. The same skills that make you a success at Fantasy Baseball will also help you when you are betting on baseball. Studying match ups and MLB run lines (just like NFL point spreads for the unfamiliar) will give you an edge if you can do it well. You will not find information for betting on baseball in your local paper as easily as you will the NFL lines and the NFL game spreads but there are websites that can help. Betting can be a ton of fun.

Short-Season Fantasy Games
There are also plenty of short season fantasy games available. It seems as if a new one pops up every day. These games are getting very popular as mid-season distractions. I wrote a review of Paper Sports a few months back. You pick a fantasy team but the season is much shorter. You can set-up week long or even just day long seasons. To excel at this version of the game you really need to study your trends and match-ups. Picking up Ryan Braun and CC Sabathia is not always the best choice. Figuring out the best choices is a major part of the challenge.

Second Half Competitions
More and more fantasy commissioner sites are offering fantasy games that feature just the second half of the season or the playoffs. This is like traditional fantasy baseball but with a much more intense season. Drafting in a league where the players are already off to horrible, bad, mediocre, good, or great starts may seem easier but it is not. You will have to decide if the hottest players are for real or if the worst players will come on strong. Those with a keen eye for sabermetrics can really rack up the wins in games like this. You can use the advanced metrics available on sites like Fan Graphs and The Hardball Times to measure the impact that good or bad luck is having on a player’s seasons.

Fantasy Football
The Fantasy Football season is also just around the corner. The magazines are just hitting the stands and the Fantasy Football Blogs are just starting to crank out the advice. Mock drafts are starting and the forums are heating up. Fantasy Football is a different beast than Fantasy Baseball. Football has the vast majority of its games on just one day of the week. If you have a big-screen TV and the right premium subscriptions you can watch essentially every one of your players perform. Fantasy Football prep can be a fun way to distract yourself from the Fantasy Baseball Blues. Some of you have even discovered the infancy stage of Advanced Fantasy Football. I am only currently posting just once or twice a week at this point but soon I will start cranking out my sleeper alerts and reporting on mock drafts.

However, by far the best way to rid you of the Fantasy Baseball Blues is to turn things around. Get aggressive and stomp your opponents for the rest of the year. Make trades; spin your roster through the waiver wire. With a little creativity you can really drive your rivals crazy with a stunning comeback. I guarantee you it can be done. If you don’t see it yourself, send me your league rosters (Jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com) and I will find it for you.

The 2009 First Half Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

There are just two weeks left to vote for your MLB All-Stars. I tend to pick my favorite fantasy players on my All-Star ballots, which is usually a pretty good indicator that they deserve a spot. If this were my fantasy team it would probably be a little short on stolen bases. But then it would win every other category running away...

Catchers

Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Honorable Mention: Pablo Sandoval, Brian McCann

Corner Infielders

1B - Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
3B - Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
CI - Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins

Honorable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder

Middle Infielders

2B - Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
SS - Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays
MI - Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

Honorable Mention: Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill

Outfielders

OF - Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies
OF - Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
OF - Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
OF - Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
OF - Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

Honorable Mention: Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon

Pitching Staff

Rotation:

1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
2. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
5. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Bullpen:

1. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
2. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
3. Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

So these are my choices for Fantasy Baseball's All-Star's. Who are your All-Stars?

What's Wrong With Russell Martin?

Russell Martin is a player that usually gets drafted a bit higher than he should. That is obviously because he has been one of the better fantasy catchers available. But this year his power and even his batting average seem to have completely evaporated. But it is very rare for a 26-year old to degrade this quickly. So it must be something that can be fixed.

Martin's walk rate is about the same as always hovering around 14 percent. His strikeout rate is slightly elevated at 19.6 percent, which is high when compared to his career average of 15.7 percent. While his BABIP is okay at .298, it is low for Martin whose career BABIP of .312 is fitting for a player with his speed and plate discipline. His GB/LD/FB rates look almost exactly the same as previous seasons.

It is worth noting that his power began to evaporate in the second half of the 2008 season. After the All-Star Break, Martin hit just .260/.371/.336 in 223 at-bats. That line looks an awful lot like this season's .239/.348/.282 slash.

Steiner Sports Los Angeles Dodgers Joe Torre Autographed Baseball

This looks like a combination of horrible luck and some mental issues. He is not doing anything dramatically different. Scouts, including fantasy expert Jason Grey, have noted that he doesn't seem to be swinging the bat with authority. I think rather than looking at video, or taking extra reps in the batting cage, Martin needs someone to kick him in the ass and motivate him. Joe Torre probably isn't that guy. Maybe Don Mattingly could get to him.

This spring a lot of sites picked up on this Globe and Mail quote:

"Martin, 26, has big plans for himself and the Dodgers, who are waiting patiently for Manny Ramirez before declaring themselves favorites in the NL West. One of them involves a calmer approach. He's added yoga to his training regimen. He's resolved to sleep better and eat more carefully. He's settled down with a steady girlfriend, and while babies aren't in the picture, 'We are practicing a lot,' he says, smiling."

I've played enough sports to know that calm only seems like a good thing. Most athletes need to get fired up and excited in order to play at their highest levels. It is the reason behind the fist pumps, the celebration dances and the high fives. This is just my opinion but taking Martin out for a bacon cheeseburger, some greasy onion rings, and a drunken fat chick might be the best thing for him.

But more seriously, I don't think Martin has lost any skill or that there is anything physically wrong with him. Unfortunately, I think Martin has lost some of his motivation to play the game, which does not bode well for fantasy leaguers. I would be very willing to trade Martin if I owned him. I would not acquire Martin unless I were receiving a very good deal.

What's Wrong with Russell Martin?

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show

I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show on Tuesday night at 10:30. This is one of the most popular Fantasy Baseball Shows in all the land. Please check it out!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-General/2009/06/17/The-Fantasy-Baseball-Roundtable-Radio-Show

Trade Advice: Carlos Lee/Edwin Jackson for Adam Lind/CC Sabathia

The following is a request for trade advice I received by e-mail. It has been slightly edited for length and clarity.

Hey Jon, I have been in talks with an owner in my Keeper League who owns CC Sabathia. The guy I am talking to wants power hitters and is interested in Edwin Jackson. I really like Edwin Jackson as a keeper league because I feel like he'll continue to get better and better. I offered him a trade and let him know I was really only interested in Carl Crawford and Sabathia from his team. I would give Carlos Lee, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Rodney, and Carl Pavano for Carl Crawford, CC Sabathia, and David Ortiz (this was before his recent hot streak). He actually liked the framework of the deal if we could pull out Carl Crawford. Adam Lind is another guy on his team I would not mind owning. But I do not know if I completely trust his season let alone his future talent. I have been told good things many times and have read about his future, but I do not want to create a gaping hole in my offense where Carlos Lee once stood to give my pitching just a small increase. I also own Nolasco, Peavy, Lincecum, Hanson, Beckett, Price, Harang, Vazquez and Ervin Santana. I feel that I have a pretty strong rotation...plus if Santana of LA can turn it around and Pavano can stay solid as well as Vazquez I have a pretty strong rotation. I just need some advice if you can dish some out. Really just another opinion besides my buddy who is also in the league. Thanks Jon. -Gary

Hey Gary,

I don't think you're desperate enough for pitching to do this deal without Carl Crawford. But it may interest you to know that Carlos Lee and Adam Lind are much closer than most realize at this point.

Carlos Lee: .313/.363/.520 w/ 29runs, 11hr, 40rbi, 5sb
Adam Lind: .300/.364/.534 w/ 37runs, 12hr, 45rbi, 1sb

Unless there are salaries attached that I'm unaware of, these two players are virtually the same. Lind is probably a little bit better statistically but to a very small degree. He also plays in a better lineup which gives him superior runs/rbi totals. I do think Lind could hit a wall soon, but he seems to have the skills to adjust. I think he'll be a very good hitter for a long time.

Edwin Jackson also compares very well to CC Sabathia this year. If Jackson played for the Yankees he would be on the verge of becoming a huge star. Trading Jackson for Sabathia would net you very little if anything.

CC Sabathia: 5-4, 3.68era, 1.13whip, 6.48 K9, 2.81 BB9, 3.74 FIP
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 2.24era, 1.03whip, 6.62 K9, 2.34 BB9, 3.27 FIP

Since these two parts of the trade balance out so well the remainder of the deal becomes Fernando Rodney and Carl Pavano for David Ortiz. I believe that Ortiz will have a strong second half of the season and be a solid if not great player to own from this point. But you would be giving up a solid closer and a solid starter for a player that to this point has been nothing but disappointing. I think that price is too high.

Even if you can afford to give up the saves and innings you'll get from Rodney and Pavano I don't see enough of a gain for you. A solid closer alone should bring you a solid veteran already having a good season. And as you mentioned, your pitching staff is already potentially very strong. You would be making this trade just to make it.

Good luck Gary, let me know if I can help any further.