Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Delmon Young, Joe Mauer and Stuff...

Delmon Young on a Roll

Delmon Young
was once expected to become a major offensive baseball force. He was the next in a line of young stars that included Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, James Shields and others in the Tampa Bay Rays minor league system. He was questioned for having a bad attitude and being hard to coach, but no one doubted his potential. Four years later from that peak of interest he has yet to have much impact. He has been average at best and often much worse than that. But whereas the Rays quickly cut their loses the Minnesota Twins have stuck with him and there are signs that it is about to pay off for them and fantasy owners.

Young's mother died early this season of cancer, he received a week off. This is tough for anyone to deal with, so maybe we can understand a little better some of this season's lack of focus. To date, Young is batting .265/.292/.388 with 7 homeruns, 2 stolen bases, and three caught stealing. Though he has never been a very patient hitter (contrary to popular opinion this isn't the end of his usefulness as a hitter) Young's lack of power has been very disappointing. This is the stuff you probably already knew.

What you may not have realized is fairly significant. Like Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young has always had a slight hitch in his swing. This is something that Young has been working on since the end of last season. Changing your swing is one of the most difficult (and dangerous for your production) things that a hitter can do. Some hitters manage it easily some are forever fiddling trying to find what works again. Since the All-Star Break Young has hit .265/.292/.515 which is not amazing but a huge step up from his first half. In July he hit .313/.343/.500 and .269/.296/.558 in August. This is not mind-blowing statistically but it is progress. When you combine his statistical progress with the recent comments by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire praising Young for his change in attitude and the work he has put in working with the the coaching staff, it gives you hope that his potential is still in reach. Young is still just 24-years old, an age where most prospects are still at triple-A. Young of course has spent the last three seasons in the major leagues. I'm looking at a huge breakout in the 2010 season.

Your American League MVP is Joe MauerBold
Joe Mauer is a beast. Right now he is the best player in baseball. Yes, better than Albert Pujols. In fact Mauer could be having the best season ever for a catcher. Better than Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, or Ivan Rodriguez or any catcher in history has ever recorded.

Random Bits and Pieces

The New York Yankees may not get center fielder Brett Gardner back as soon as expected. His doctors suggested that he keep the splint on his thumb another week. So under even the most optimistic program he's another couple of weeks away. But lefty reliever Damaso Marte may be back on Friday. Don't drop Gardner unless you absolutely must. The Yankees could use his fresh legs in the last few weeks of the season to rest the older knees of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.

Ed DeCaria of BaseballHQ.com has just completed a two-part study of the correlation between pitching performance and wins. In an attempt to see what factors matter most in predicting wins. The results are a bit unsatisfying (after a whole lot of math and charting he never manages better than a 50/50 shot at predicting wins) but the articles are interesting and may make it easier to understand what makes the best pitchers tick if you have access to HQ.

Mike Hampton, who has been useful at times this season, has a torn rotator cuff. He has chosen to go the rehab route rather than have surgery. You can hardly blame him. After missing huge chunks of the last five years the idea of another serious surgery and lengthy rehab had to be daunting. I doubt he'll be of any use the rest of the season and I would be very hesitant to draft him in 2010.

Drew Stubbs (Cincinnati Reds center field prospect) has been promoted to the majors today. He should be in the majors to stay. It is actually a little shocking that the Reds did not promote him earlier considering his nice production in the minors and the Reds' needs in the outfield. He still needs to cut down the strikeouts but has begun to take walks at a decent rate and should continue to improve. He is already a better hitter than Wily Tavares. He should provide his owners with boatloads of steals.

Arizona Diamondbacks manager AJ Hinch is excited about the potential of the club's likely September callups. In particular he mentioned first base prospect Brandon Allen, who is hitting .341 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 35 games with Triple-A Reno since the D-backs acquired him from the White Sox. Also, outfielder Cole Gillespie who has hit .325 for triple-A Reno. Those two make nice speculation picks on FAAB if your league rules allow.

Mike Morse has been called up by the Washington Nationals. He doesn't have a clear position but he can seriously hit when given the chance. If he's still available snatch himup on the cheap.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Industry News: Fanball Buys NFFC, NFBC and Fantasy Sports Magazine

The Press Release:

Fanball, the premier provider of online fantasy sports contests, content, strategy and insight, announced the acquisition of the fantasy sports properties from F+W Media, Inc-- including the National Fantasy Football Championship and National Fantasy Baseball Championship contests as well as Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Company’s fantasy sports custom publications division.

Fanball’s acquisition combines two of the fantasy sports industry’s leading online and offline properties.

The National Fantasy Football Championship and National Fantasy Baseball Championship are the leading high stakes fantasy sports live event contests. Both contests feature a $100,000 Grand Prize, along with several other overall and league prizes. The high stakes contests also feature online and satellite leagues with varying price points.

Fantasy Sports Magazine has been published since 1989, and is one of the foremost fantasy sports analysis publications. The magazine currently prints four issues per year. The publication will join forces with Fanball’s wide array of fantasy sports and NFL draft-related publications. Fanball has provided fantasy sports contests and content since 1992, and has awarded more than $50 million in prize money over that time.

"Fanball is leveraging our extensive online userbase to enter the fast growing live events business for fantasy sports," said Ryan Houston, SVP of http://www.facebook.com/l/;Fanball.com http://www.facebook.com/l/;. "This enhances our product offerings and adds key personnel to our group as we continue to look at partnerships. We are thrilled to add two pioneers in the fantasy sports industry, Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich. Their collective industry experience increases our presence on the national newsstand and bolsters our array of existing print publications."

“I’m excited and honored to be working with the Fanball team. This is the right move at the right time for our live events,” said Greg Ambrosius, founder of the National Fantasy Baseball and Football Championships. “With the great customer base that already exists with http://www.facebook.com/l/;Fanball.com http://www.facebook.com/l/; and CDM Fantasy Sports, the future is now brighter than it’s ever been for the NFBC, NFFC and other sports we look to be a leader in. Tom and I are excited about the future of the live events industry, about working on all of the Fanball print and online products, and about being a big part of one of the leading companies in the industry.”

Said David Blansfield, President, F+W Media, “Although we are exiting the fantasy sports market, this does not affect the rest of the sports community at F+W Media. We will continue to build our sports collectibles community through our books and magazines, auctions, data and online presence. It is a testament to their talent and reputation in the field that Greg and Tom, who have managed our fantasy sports and events businesses, have become employees of Fanball concurrent with this transaction. We congratulate them on this new opportunity.”

The National Fantasy Football Championship Main Event will occur Saturday, September 5 in Las Vegas, Chicago, and New York simultaneously, with satellite leagues taking place throughout the the next four weeks. The National Fantasy Football Championship also offers online leagues that are ongoing through the beginning of the NFL season at different price points from $125 to $1,000.

Friday, August 14, 2009

An Early Look at 2010 Keepers

When you are in a competitive keeper league, next year's team is always on your mind. You look at every available player and consider his value to cost ratio. You wonder how much they might go for in next year's auction. Or at least you should do all that. I imagine sometimes you put it off. Maybe you wait until after the present season, or maybe until December when the Baseball Forecaster arrives in the mail. Still others may wait until their favorite NFL team is eliminated or (God forbid) until Spring Training begins...

Well I'm always thinking about it. And if you're an annual procrastinator you may find this article extremely useful. Here is a list of players that I am very interested in for the 2010 season. You won't find Albert Pujols or Chase Utley on this list. Some are players that are probably not on your radar yet. In some cases you may even have released or traded them away this season, but next year is a whole different beast. Some are players that have been excellent but whose season's have incorrectly been chalked up to luck. Players that have been bad for a combination of reasons that can be explained have also made the list, some are even potential superstars. Still others are players that have earned a greater opportunity that we can pounce on before they get hyped up this winter. I've broken them down into various categories for ease of use and my own entertainment.

Future Closers

Sean Burnett LHP Washington Nationals - He is a lefty with a dominate fastball and the control necessary in a quality closer. The Nationals have settled on Mike MacDougal as closer in recent weeks but that doesn't mean that Burnett does not have closing in his future. If nothing else he is a quality reliever of value in NL-only leagues.

Matt Thornton LHP Chicago White Sox -He's the best left-handed reliever in the American League. He shows the skill and the guile to close games. He is not young but is definitely a closer candidate should the White Sox part ways with Bobby Jenks.

Mike Adams RHP San Diego Padres - After injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness Mike Adams has arrived as the Padres closer-of-the-future. His mid-nineties sinking fastball has always been a dangerous pitch and he has finally developed his other pitches into assets. The rumors of a Heath Bell trade are everywhere. Adams is the man you want to own.

First Round for the First Time

Curtis Granderson OF Detroit Tigers - He has a shot at his first 30/30 season and is a young rising star in the American League. It may be a bit weird that his increase in homers seems to have robbed him of a good deal of doubles. But this is due to a large increase in fly balls more than an increase in luck. He is trying to hit them out more often and it is working.

Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers - I predicted he would become a first round pick this season and I was right. His combination of power and speed would be even more valuable if Joe Torre used his brain a little more often when filling out the lineup cards.

Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays - If it wasn't for the injuries, Longoria would be a clear first round pick. He is what we all expected from David Wright this season. With Wright clearly not earning a return to the first round this season, Longoria becomes the second best third baseman available.

Post-Hype Prospects

Delmon Young OF Minnesota Twins - He has officially been wiped off of every sleeper list in the country following his pretty terrible 2009 season. But he has shown signs in the second half of the player that all the prospect watchers predicted. He is still just 25 years old and the Twins are not giving up on him. You should not either, especially when he will have a single-digit price.

Brayan Pena C Kansas City Royals - I called him a sleeper in Spring Training but it took the Royals a little longer to see it. He is the starter now and will likely be next season as well. He should hit for a solid average in a lineup that should improve next season.

Prospects I Like a Lot

Alex Avila C Detroit Tigers - A promising hitter and better defensively than many projected.

Peter Bourjos OF Los Angeles Angels - One of the fastest and most exciting players in the minors or the majors.

Jason Heyward OF Atlanta Braves - The best hitter in the minors with improving power and defense.

Michael Stanton OF Florida Marlins - The most powerful hitter in the minors with improving discipline and defense.

Donovan Tate OF San Diego Padres - An incredible athlete whom the Padres are close to talking out of a North Carolina scholarship. He could be very much like Michael Stanton this time next year.

Brett Wallace 3B Oakland Athletics - A very talented hitter on the verge of the major leagues. He should hit better than .300 most seasons with power. I compare him to Joey Votto.

The Unbelievably Good

Joel Pineiro RHP St. Louis Cardinals - I have not been a big fan of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan because despite their success, they have a long list of players they abused and discarded because they had a different way of doing things. But Pineiro is undeniably a success story based on morphing him from a mediocre strikeout pitcher into a groundball machine. By making Pineiro throw his sinker 60-70 percent of the time his game has been transformed. Pineiro was on board with the change and was quite excited about it this spring. It has worked for him and there is little chance he would abandon it. Still, most fantasy leaguers have become skeptical about seemingly mediocre talents taking a huge step up in production and will fail to properly value him. I'll take him.

Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks - Most of us were not shocked by the power that Reynolds showed. But the batting average and stolen bases blew a lot of minds. The average was a little over his head but not by as much as you might think. Reynolds does not steal bases like a true speedster but he is a good base runner. Though if the Diamondbacks improve their lineup next season his opportunities could be limited. It is easy to let him run wild when the team is losing if they start winning games they'll start making more responsible decisions.

Marcos Scutaro SS Toronto Blue Jays - In the post I made the other day about the flood of rookies coming to Major League Baseball I should have mentioned that we will also be seeing more and more Marco Scutaro types. These are the players that look like great hitters in the minors and in part-time duty but for some reason fail to win a full-time opportunity in the majors. That's all going to change. Look for another large group of players like Russell Branyan, Marcos Scutaro, Ryan Ludwick and Nelson Cruz before them to get extended opportunities. I'd name them all but that will be another post altogether.

The Injury Discount

Josh Hamilton OF Texas Rangers - I don't care that he slipped up in January. I care much more that he owned up to his mistake the very next day to everyone who truly had a right to know and that was not us. He tried to take a step in normal drinking and he failed miserably. If you've been concerned about his actual performance you really shouldn't be. Hamilton is a fantastic athlete and a terrific baseball player. Towards the end the of the 2008 season he (with the helpof the best hitting coach in baseball) attempted to remove a hitch from his swing that would in theory make his already great bat speed -Otherworldly. The process was going okay but was interrupted by almost three straight months of injury problems. He'll be fine when he's healthy again and you'll get him at a discount to boot.

Vladimir Guerrero OF Los Angeles Angels - Vlad is no longer the best outfielder in all the land, the player that made us drool over 40/40 possibilities. However, he still owns incredible power when his aching old bones are properly medicated. You can now get the lesser Vlad for far less of investment than was once the case, in fact he now goes for less than he's actually worth. That makes him a target in my mind.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Does B.J. Upton Deserve Another Chance?






Roundtable: Does Your Trade Pitch Work?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has been posted at The Hardball Times. Derek Carty poses a question regarding trade talks:
Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?
It is an interesting question that resulted in some interesting answers. Please, check it out by clicking here.

Sunday, August 09, 2009

2008 Quarterbacks Ranked By Yards per Game


Name Team Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Sacks YdsL
Drew Brees NOR 413 635 65 5069 316.8 8 34 17 13 92
Kurt Warner ARI 401 598 67.1 4583 286.4 7.7 30 14 26 182
Jay Cutler DEN 384 616 62.3 4526 282.9 7.3 25 18 11 69
Matt Schaub HOU 251 380 66.1 3043 276.6 8 15 10 23 149
Tony Romo DAL 276 450 61.3 3448 265.2 7.7 26 14 20 123
Aaron Rodgers GNB 341 536 63.6 4038 252.4 7.5 28 13 34 231
Philip Rivers SDG 312 478 65.3 4009 250.6 8.4 34 11 25 151
Peyton Manning IND 371 555 66.8 4002 250.1 7.2 27 12 14 86
Donovan McNabb PHI 345 571 60.4 3916 244.8 6.9 23 11 23 149
Sage Rosenfels HOU 116 174 66.7 1431 238.5 8.2 6 10 9 58
Matt Cassel NWE 327 516 63.4 3693 230.8 7.2 21 11 47 219
Chad Pennington MIA 321 476 67.4 3653 228.3 7.7 19 7 24 121
Shaun Hill SFO 181 288 62.8 2046 227.3 7.1 13 8 23 148
David Garrard JAC 335 535 62.6 3620 226.3 6.8 15 13 42 288
Jeff Garcia TAM 244 376 64.9 2712 226 7.2 12 6 23 100
Brett Favre NYJ 343 522 65.7 3472 217 6.7 22 22 30 213
Matt Ryan ATL 265 434 61.1 3440 215 7.9 16 11 17 104
Brian Griese TAM 110 184 59.8 1073 214.6 5.8 5 7 9 69
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 281 469 59.9 3301 206.3 7 17 15 46 284
Jake Delhomme CAR 246 414 59.4 3288 205.5 7.9 15 12 20 130
Jason Campbell WAS 315 506 62.3 3245 202.8 6.4 13 6 38 266
Eli Manning NYG 289 479 60.3 3238 202.4 6.8 21 10 27 174
Kyle Orton CHI 272 465 58.5 2972 198.1 6.4 18 12 27 160
Gus Frerotte MIN 178 301 59.1 2157 196.1 7.2 12 15 29 164
Trent Edwards BUF 245 374 65.5 2699 192.8 7.2 11 10 23 143
Jon Kitna DET 68 120 56.7 758 189.5 6.3 5 5 15 89
J.T. O'Sullivan SFO 128 220 58.2 1678 186.4 7.6 8 11 32 197
Tyler Thigpen KAN 230 420 54.8 2608 186.3 6.2 18 12 26 162
Joe Flacco BAL 257 428 60 2971 185.7 6.9 14 12 32 276
Carson Palmer CIN 75 129 58.1 731 182.8 5.7 3 4 11 67
Marc Bulger STL 251 440 57 2720 181.3 6.2 11 13 38 263